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Gold and the resource markets

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May 16, 2015
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Discussion
177 Comments
    CFS
    May 16, 2015 16:25 AM

    I disagree with Mr. Schmid. The numbers do not add up to China only having 4,000-6,000 tonnes. They are both the biggest producer as well as importer of gold.
    If one adds in the internal production, their holdings are closer to 10,000 tonnes.
    Further, since they are still importing, there is no reason YET, for them to increase the price.
    It is not until October, when SDRs get re-based, that it is to their advantage to announce gold holdings. At that time, it will be advantageous for them to announce holdings in excess of those of Germany, but not necessarily their full holdings.
    If at that time the US is causing problems for them, it would also be advantageous for them to ask for audits of all SDR countries’ holdings.
    Since I believe the holdings of the US to not amount to their announced holdings, this could seriously damage the dollar.
    Alternatively, the threat of an audit request could be used as blackmail, to cause the US to back off some foreign policy.

      May 16, 2015 16:18 AM

      Make sense cfs. China has been producing at average 300- 400 T for last couple of decades and import 1000-2000 T for the last 10 years. When you add up it is huge number. China also banned export except small amount of coins for the last 12 years. You just don’t know how much their central bank has. I guess half of the total. But for Chinese government, it seems no problem for people to accumulate, contrary to india.

        May 16, 2015 16:24 AM

        Morning Lawrence,

        As I brought up at our Book Club yesterday, I am pretty convinced that China will be the next “very big kid on the block”!

          May 16, 2015 16:38 AM

          Yes , I keep hearing everyone including Chinese saying China has a lot of money. Which is wrong assessment. As a country, they can print as much as they want. However what backing it is the industry strength. Without that money has no value. I travel a lot , I am always surprised how easy for China to build things, from small products to rail way to the top of the world. Now they are talking about bullet trains radiating from Beijing to the rest of euro Asia continent, the so called silk road project. When it is taking ship, China will naturally become the center. US should realize this and bring manufacturing back. Otherwise it’s military conquest will end up nowhere.

            May 16, 2015 16:00 AM

            Great point Lawrence.

            Interestingly enough we also discussed these trains in China at our Book Club meeting yesterday afternoon.

      May 16, 2015 16:21 AM

      Great, insightful comment Professor!

      We are currently discussing China in our Book Club which meets twice a month on Fridays. The book which we just finished discussing is called “Age of Ambition, Casing Fortune, Truth & Faith – New China. By Evan Osnos.

      It is truly the new “bull in the China Shop.

      Just for your information our next “read” is Atlas Shrugged.

      LFP
      May 16, 2015 16:59 AM

      Got news for y’ah, ”Prof”. China has over 20,00 metric tons [ + ] already.

      How do I know?.. I had a dream last night and was visited by Dudil, the great spirit of the ether world [aka ”…Due Diligence ].

      Time for you to indulge in some yourself. 😉

    May 16, 2015 16:52 AM

    So the consensus of the Three Musketeers – Doc, Rick and Chris – is to stay the heck out of the conventional markets?

    Nice to hear cash being put forward as a good position to be in.

      May 16, 2015 16:09 AM

      CAsh is been diluted fast in every country. If you look at the price when you shop and look at the asset price increase, you should know that is the only sure thing to lose value.

        May 16, 2015 16:28 AM

        We also discussed this subject at our Book Club yesterday. With the huge increase in supply of dollars, of course, they will lose value.

      May 16, 2015 16:26 AM

      Maybe, but I would certainly not put myself and Chris in that category at this point in time. Probably would not put Cory in iteither.

      How you doing?

        May 16, 2015 16:57 AM

        I am fine Al. Just got in from a long cycle ride. Sunny day here in the UK. Hope you are doing well?

    bb
    May 16, 2015 16:43 AM

    seg 4. Mr Martenson might find this interesting, this link puts a lot of pieces together.
    There are sources too Al.

    http://jamesperloff.com/2014/05/21/false-flag-at-sea/

    Millions have died because of it, and people are sooo proud of their countries and militarys.
    PCR could be right, people are sheep led by psychopaths.

    We are corrupt from top to bottom, our government,police,justice system, religious organizations heck as Chris mentions even the U.N. and lets not forget JFK. Other than the “patsy” did anyone even get a parking ticket? Well, witnesses got dead of course, pattern established for 9/11 I suppose.

    Will anything be done to correct it? I don’t think so, I think people will continue to sacrifice their kids to perpetuate it.
    But as Cory says, we are lucky enough to be informed about it, enough to at least ignore it anyway.

      May 16, 2015 16:57 AM

      A great read. History in this country does repeat.

        bb
        May 16, 2015 16:02 AM

        Doc. if it wasn’t presented so well, I might find it unbelievable.

        I don’t know if there is a darn thing anyone could do about it.

          May 16, 2015 16:52 AM

          I’ve known the history of the Lusitania for a long time—-it along with the Gulf of Tonkin issue and many other examples have hardened me to man’s basic weakness especially those that represent them as doing the will of the people. One of the most provocative points he made and which I never had thought of was the following: “The Illuminati wanted monarchies replaced by “democracy,” because democracy splinters a nation into parties; a divided country is weaker, and easier to absorb into world government. This is the “divide and conquer” principle, and the true reason Wilson said the war would “make the world safe for democracy.” This catchphrase really meant “make the world safe for Illuminati,” for the latter knew that in a democracy, wealth combined with media control would ensure their handpicked candidates received over 50 percent of the vote. “

            May 16, 2015 16:58 AM

            Very interesting comment coming from you Doctor!

            bb
            May 16, 2015 16:51 AM

            That stood out to me too Doc, I had read a few times the first war might have been intended to eliminate the Habsburghs (sp).
            It hadn’t occurred to me it was entirely about eliminating ALL monarchies to implement more manageable democracies.
            Makes sense tho, I think Plato wrote about democracy being a weak government no?

            bb
            May 16, 2015 16:55 AM

            Another neat thing about that article, he names the illuminati members.
            At least those at the time.
            He puts that group in perspective, not really “tin foil hat” after all.
            But good lord are they ever powerful.

            May 16, 2015 16:00 AM

            Doc is a conspiratorialist. “Hide me from the conspiracy of the wicked, from the plots of evildoers.” Psalm 64:2.

          May 16, 2015 16:58 AM

          Doc,
          Good post! That’s why it’s important ( the Most Important Thing Ever )to repeal the act of 1871, as it would stop all the mis-use of authority and derelict of duty that is common of our elected officials.
          Some of which ( past and present ) have committed treason.

            May 16, 2015 16:20 AM

            “illuminati” is essentially the enlightened. The “enlightened” today (IMO) are members of the CFR. That’s why they’re pervasive through the upper echelons of our government and the banker members also.

      May 16, 2015 16:31 AM

      I personally found the interview with Chris to be fascinating, bb.

      He is a very good “investigative reporter”.

      May 16, 2015 16:57 AM

      bb,
      That was a good article. I agree with Doc, history repeats.

        bb
        May 16, 2015 16:58 AM

        Chartster, I thought it was, gives an idea what people are up against

          May 16, 2015 16:51 AM

          Yes bb,
          If we don’t know the truth about the past, we will never know what is going on now.
          Thanks for bringing that article in.

    May 16, 2015 16:27 AM

    WELCOME TURD F……………great to hear some new news…………FTBOOT Goldtard

      May 16, 2015 16:39 PM

      On May 6, 2015 at 1:14 pm,
      Shad says:
      Yes the economy is on shakier ground than many are willing to admit, and the Fed is using their confusing language to talk the market into submission.

      “You can’t polish a turd, but you can put a bow on it” 🙂

      On May 6, 2015 at 3:43 pm,
      Frank from moscow says:

      btw………..what would Turd Fur gas son say about that…….

      On May 6, 2015 at 3:37 pm,
      Shad says:

      Burt Reynolds is Turd Ferguson….. Just wait for him 2/3 in when he comes out in the big hat. It always makes me laugh.

      https://screen.yahoo.com/celebrity-jeopardy-stewart-reynolds-connery-000000332.html

      On May 6, 2015 at 1:39 pm,
      Gator says:

      You can polish a turd…look at how shiny the one in the white house is…

      On May 6, 2015 at 2:12 pm,
      miffed irishtony says:

      Gator….HaHa brilliant.

      On May 6, 2015 at 3:40 pm,
      Frank from moscow says:

      gator …….too funny……….
      Reply to this comment

      On May 6, 2015 at 3:15 pm,
      Richard says:

      Brilliant, agree,
      Sometimes even turds float to the top.

    Rex
    May 16, 2015 16:38 AM

    Good stuff overall, thanks.
    Maybe next time you can get Turd to explain the difference in his steadfast assertions that physical gold in Londons vaults are low to empty.
    I saw recently where Andrew Maguire completely changed his tune and years long claims of empty London bullion vaults when he stated…”These vaults are FULL of gold…”

    http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-stunning-update-hsbc-london-gold-vault-closures/

    I see Turd had Maguire on his blog recently and no one there is mentioning this relevant quip from Maguire at KWN about vaults that are FULL of gold.

    Seems like a fair question to ask why the sudden turnaround by Maguire and Turds views on the physical gold supply in London.

      May 16, 2015 16:26 AM

      good point……….

      May 16, 2015 16:00 AM

      Rex, that March 10th article was disussing HSBC closing their gold vaults down. The gold belonged to private citizens not central banks. Germany has been buying a lot lately.

      People in Germany are going crazy for gold http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/14/investing/gold-germany-europe-ecb/

      Andrew Maguire: “HSBC customer relations and PR are now commenting about the 7 vault closures seen in an email from a sub-custodian on Thursday, March 5th. Keep in mind, Eric, that HSBC is closing down 7 vaults that contain gold. But to avoid trouble, HSBC is now calling them ‘retail safe deposit facilities.’ What does that mean? You put gold in a vault for safekeeping….

      “These vaults are full of gold and the customers now have only 60 days to find a new vaulting service. I’m saying the fact that they are now avoiding calling them ‘vaults,’ and instead calling them ‘retail safe deposit facilities,’ is preposterous.”

        Rex
        May 16, 2015 16:43 PM

        If it’s easier for some to simply dismiss all the misleading assertions by Maguire or Turd over the years then continue to do so. No one finds it a bit funny that certain long standing assertions that never panned out are never spoken of again?

        Name one thing at this point in time that has panned out from either of them over the past several years that has had any discernible impact on the PM markets at this point.

        Anyone who has been around long enough realizes at this point that both of them are saying the same things they professed many years ago when the metals were in this same price range.
        Rinse, lather, repeat and hope some newbs that don’t know any better hop on the hopium train.
        Given that it appears legions of people over there no longer believe Maguires assertions or in Turds butressing of them you’ve got to wonder why he persists rolling out one of KWN’s known fear mongering hucksters whose been consistently wrong with his hyperbolic outlooks.

        The veterans over there clearly see through it yet Maguires spiel seems to be intended for the unintiated just like it was years ago with that silly HEH nonsense that was inended to keep peoples hopes alive and from jumping ship.

        People can believe what they want but those who have been around long enough know what they see even if it’s uncomfortable to acknowledge it.

        Bottomline…the USD did not die, QE ended, the evil paper equities markets soared, the metals tanked big time, JPM was not cornered in any way, shape or form, physical gold and silver is obviously not in short supply and rates will go up this fall in the new govt. fiscal year.

        Cheers!

          May 16, 2015 16:36 PM

          anyone new to TFMR should proceed with extreme caution. the following link may seem overly harsh, but Turd’s advice has been awful, and has cost many dearly.
          http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/05/the-gold-cult.html#comment-form

          May 16, 2015 16:17 PM

          They are describing what is happening. Nobody has enough power to beat US government and Wall street at this point. But that does mean reality need to be altered. All evil things will end badly. Do you think Kim in North Korea is not doing bad things just because his dictator has been working and winning? Given long enough time, buying gold and silver will pay off because inflation is lifting all boats.

      bb
      May 16, 2015 16:01 AM

      Maybe those thousands of tons from Indian temples got to London?
      Timing is right it would seem.

    Bob
    May 16, 2015 16:09 AM

    I’d like to make a comparison–we are told that we need to take possession of
    our GOLD, not to keep it in a bank vault, where the box can be opened by the
    bank. WHY would anyone leave their gold and silver company investments in
    a brokerage account and not take physical possession by getting a certificate??
    ALL YOUR INVESTMENTS NEED TO BE UNDER YOUR CONTROL.

      May 16, 2015 16:34 AM

      Regarding taking posession of your certs, that is probably a good point.

      I personally don’t, but, what the heck, maybe I should.

    May 16, 2015 16:27 AM

    *********** ” THE MARK GOLD COMPUTER SYSTEM WAS RIGHT ” *************
    I told all of you last month that my system said that GOLD and SILVER would be up and the DOLLAR would be down for the month of JUNE and JULY……..THIS WAS DONE WAY BEFORE ANYONE ELSE DID……………..so I know MY SYSTEM WORKS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      May 16, 2015 16:34 AM

      Great point on your part, Mark.

      Gold did definitely break $1225 (US) yesterday and the US dollar did certainly drop.

      Way to go man!

        May 16, 2015 16:44 AM

        THANKS BIG AL………………also, these interviews are GREAT !!!!

          May 16, 2015 16:59 AM

          It is great, Mark, to be having a lot of fun and also being involved in a great educational forum!

      May 16, 2015 16:28 AM

      Mark…….ANY COMMENTS on…………….OPTION EXPIRY……….Thanks……..the boot.

      May 16, 2015 16:40 AM

      I do remember that Mark…Congrats…..

      May 16, 2015 16:29 PM

      Thanks Mark, but it is mid-May still, and there were several of us that mentioned at the beginning of May, that due to the dollar weakness that we’d likely see a pop in PMs for the next few weeks and we’re half way into that counter-trend move.

      So do you expect these trends to continue into June and July then?

      What if the dollar turns down around 92 and starts heading back up into June/July?

        May 16, 2015 16:50 PM

        Another thing to key an eye on, as we’ve been harping on the last 2 weeks is if the long term bond yields may actually come back down and test lows near 2%. If that happens it may pressure commodities and Gold in the short to mid term for the summer.

    May 16, 2015 16:29 AM

    Thanks Cory and Al for bringing the new China gold exchange and China’s end goal.
    “Poor man wants to be Rich, Rich man want to be king, and the king aint satisfied till he rules everything “.

    In order for china to take control of pricing they will have to break the COMEX.
    They will have to take delivery of every available ounce of physical that the exchange can find and then demand more until the exchange settle in fiat.
    China has deeper pockets than the Hunt Brothers and they have much more muscle.
    Right now we export quite a bit of gold, when it looks like our supplies have dried up and physical is very tight, then the window will open for a run at the COMEX.
    Good interview with Craig Hemke and the paper vs the physical gold :).

    An update on this chart:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/gnyjpzzfpr1anih/GLD-UUP.jpg?dl=0

      May 16, 2015 16:37 AM

      You, obviously, share my optimism about China.

      I personally don’t see how anyone could feel differently at this point.

      Thanks for the comment, Gabriel.

        May 16, 2015 16:53 AM

        I just came back from China. There is no doubt China has slowed down but there is no sign it is crashing. I am surprised to notice that the quality of everything is rising compared to a couple of years ago. People seems happier. It is my first time to hear some people saying the leader is doing correct things in private. I think some of the slow down is intentional and result of unti- corruption effort. As long as people try to make money and government does not forbid wealth creation, China will not stop growing at this stage. You don’t know how much parents are spending to educate their kids. It is probably far more than US before. This have to result in better workforce.

          May 16, 2015 16:57 AM

          As I have said in the past, Lawrence, I am convinced that China is the next big power. And, I might add, bit power again!

            May 16, 2015 16:04 AM

            But I feel China needs a competitor like US before it has some kind balance of power. The government tends to corrupt easily, I think it is more of a culture reason. Five thousand year history does accumulate some bad habit.

            May 16, 2015 16:32 AM

            And also some very good ones, Lawrence!

      May 16, 2015 16:53 AM

      I agree with Craig’s view that gold has probably bottomed and said the following almost a year before it hit its low last fall:

      On December 19, 2013 at 8:36 am,
      Matthew says:

      $1155-$1125 seem like the worst case scenario to me. $1155 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the 2008 low to the 2011 high. $1155 is also the late July 2010 low just before Ben’s Jackson Hole speech in which he said “The Federal Reserve is already supporting the economic recovery by maintaining an extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy, using multiple tools. Should further action prove necessary, policy options are available to provide additional stimulus.”
      —————
      1125 was the area of a lesser breakout and backtest in 2010:
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2009-08-11&en=2010-11-11&id=p45490276544&a=374349595

        May 16, 2015 16:55 AM

        Yes, Matthew did say that!

          May 16, 2015 16:59 AM

          Why did Matthew stop using his name? Was he banned?

            May 16, 2015 16:13 AM

            No, I wasn’t banned. I just took a break and came back as the mirror image of Jerry’s new “Frank from moscow” handle. Just goofing around.

            May 16, 2015 16:31 AM

            You know that you would never be “banned!

            Good to have you back!

            May 16, 2015 16:44 AM

            at least not for long…………… 🙂

          May 16, 2015 16:42 AM

          I think that “wocsom morf knarF” is Matthew’s smarter twin.

    May 16, 2015 16:24 AM

    “If people are cynical,I don’t think they are not cynical enough-if they really watch things carefully.” CM
    Well said.Most of us involved in resource stocks concur,Chris.

    May 16, 2015 16:29 AM

    China’s GDP has doubled since 2009. This means that the rate of growth today would have to plunge by about 50% to equal the same absolute growth back then. In other words, 5% growth today would equal roughly 10% growth back then since 5% of $9T is the same as 10% of $4.5T.

      May 16, 2015 16:58 AM

      Matthew,
      Those numbers puts in in a whole new context.
      Thank you!

        May 16, 2015 16:13 PM

        The commodities super cycle is far from finished!

          May 16, 2015 16:09 PM

          Agreed. There is also more to the world than just China to fuel the commodities and energy space. Think about the development going on in places like Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, S. Korea, ex-soviet territories, Mexico, Central America, South America, Africa, India, Russia, and the Middle East. People are going to need stuff.

    May 16, 2015 16:39 AM

    All of this has happened under Obama’s watch. What an utter failure he is.

    Update!
    Number of Wall Street Bankers Jailed for 2008 financial Crisis: 0

    .

    LGC
    May 16, 2015 16:53 AM

    I wills say it right now. China will reveal its gold reserves before the IMF meeting in Sept. It will be at least 12,000 tons and the reason for them making the announcement is because it will give the IMF cover and reason to include the Yuan in the basket of currencies used for the SDR currency. In other words the US can complain but they will have no good reason to disallow the Yuan into the basket.

      May 16, 2015 16:23 PM

      If China does have 12,000 tons or 385 million ounces, they don’t need to be in the SDR, they can simply make the Yuan convertible into gold and they become the next reserve currency overnight.

      Records is a big believer in the SDR being the next currency but I don’t think it will be. I think it will be gold and BitGold is the door.

        May 16, 2015 16:24 PM

        That’s Rickards, not records. Jim Rickards.

          May 16, 2015 16:42 PM

          I feel that the Chinese don’t feel any sense of urgency to be “included” in Western monetary reindeer games. For one, China no longer needs the West, given it, and its satellite states, have become the world’s dominant manufacturing powerhouses. Plus, China’s government is far wealthier (net of debt) than the West; and in setting up the BRICS development bank (to rival the IMF); the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (to rival the World Bank); countless currency swap agreements with myriad nations; and its own SWIFT monetary transfer system, it clearly believes it has the ability to dominate global trade. Secondly, in my view the “SDR,” or Special Drawing Right, which is simply a basket of the West’s “leading” fiat toilet papers, not only has not a chance of ever being used; but frankly, is more of a giant propaganda joke than an actual serious concept. And last but not least, I cannot emphasize enough that whilst the Chinese government’s long-term plan is to dominate global trade with a gold-backed Yuan – either officially or on a de facto basis – such an announcement is the last thing the current Chinese government desires.

    May 16, 2015 16:15 AM

    Commodities monthly chart (for those with a subscription):
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=M&yr=11&mn=11&dy=0&id=p39993725364&a=382030335

    May 16, 2015 16:52 AM

    Where’s Ebolan? Anyone, know what happened to him?

    May 16, 2015 16:53 PM

    Sell the Canadian dollar, Yale? See, I don’t get that thinking at all. I would not even worry about it all the way up to the .88 to .89 level but it sure does not look like there is any near term weakness on the chart. I know I would not be changing CDN for USD right now unless it was just a short term thing on a pullback. But there is not much coin in it after transaction costs anyway if you are using US dollar accounts at the bank. Just does not make sense to me……sorry.

    May 16, 2015 16:01 PM

    Next Fib arc resistance for GDXJ next week is about $29.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=0&id=p96764783638&a=404285872

    May 16, 2015 16:40 PM

    Gold 4hr. Let see if this channel is valid …
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/edycq6lo5kt3zdv/XAU15052015.jpg?dl=0

    May 16, 2015 16:06 PM

    Craig ( TF ) knows how they are manipulating the metals market with paper. He brought up good points in how the banks and paper option control the price.
    He is spot on saying the debt based system will end soon.
    However, he doesn’t know what’s going to happen with price once the reset happens. The banks certainly know. The price is going to drop, and 1150 is not the floor. If 1150 was the floor, you would see these mining stocks and the ETFs going parabolic. The commercials have not entered the mining sector for a reason. The bottom is not in!
    When we get the washout, the mining sector us going ballistic !!

    The washout is coming soon! Could start next week!

      May 16, 2015 16:28 PM

      I agree that it still remains to be seen if the 1130-1150 range (where Gold has put in its most recent lows) was really the floor and double bottom from Nov and March, or if we’ll start the grind down to test them in the late summer. My suspicion is that it will be the latter, but at this point nobody knows…..

      For the very short term the PM rally may have a little further to run.

    May 16, 2015 16:01 PM

    Peter Brandt change his mind now …
    “I am moving into a state of high alert in Silver. While I still am inclined to trade a breakout in either direction (given a measured-risk entry), my preference is now slanted toward the buy side. Silver could become rather exciting during the weeks ahead. ”
    http://peterlbrandt.com/the-factor-turns-bullish-on-silver/
    interesting …

      May 16, 2015 16:28 PM

      Agreed Gabriel. I’ve been beating on the Silver drum the last 3 weeks and have been discussing the Silver miners in particular for a while now as good value. They’ve had a nice pop lately and may have a little further to run over the next week or so before pulling back. Cheers!

        May 16, 2015 16:41 PM

        Shad:

        Look into Defiance. I went to the project in Mexico. It’s a slam dunk.

          May 16, 2015 16:18 PM

          Will do. Thanks for the heads up.

          May 16, 2015 16:30 PM

          to get that project rolling again they are going to have to find another 50 to 100 million ozs. Interesting project but I never get to exited about projects that are trying to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

            May 16, 2015 16:47 PM

            They are getting $.50 an ounce for silver, it’s the easiest project to drill I have ever seen. None of it is exploration drilling, it’s all in-fill. I don’t own it but it’s the best silver stock I know of.

            It’s way over 100 million ounces. They just have to drill.

            May 17, 2015 17:19 AM

            Yes I just watched a series of different interviews on the the property, and like that it is a previously producing mine, but that no modern exploration had been done on it. It is also interesting how wide of a vein it is for Mexico, where so many are chasing much more narrow viens. It is also promising that there have been 200 million ounces mined in the near vicinity, and that is a part of that same trend where they have 5km of the 15 km trend. It appears financing is the roadblock at present, but that they have a successful management team. I’ll be keeping an eye on this one.

            May 17, 2015 17:23 AM

            I did just watch an interesting interview with one of the financial investors at Windermere (Brian Ostroff) from PDAC in April, and liked their outlook as well. It seems they have done a few drill holes with very promising results proving their theory is starting to pan out.

            May 17, 2015 17:57 AM

            Shad, I agree with Bob. That asset is legit and used to belong to Impact Silver. Two of the directors of Defiance founded it and came from Impact.

            Bob, do you happen to have an opinion about Impact Silver’s flagship property? I’ve long thought that it has extraordinary potential. I am guessing that you’ve probably been to it.
            I would appreciate your opinion, especially if it is the opposite of mine.

            May 17, 2015 17:37 PM

            WMK:

            I’ve been to Impact’s mine. The mine is limited by roads. It’s in a very hilly area and while there is a lot of silver, you can’t move trucks around the property. I really like the property but the company is run by a bean counter and that never seems to work. My suggestion to him was to optimize it as very small but profitable operation and use it as a stepping stone in Mexico. He ignored me. The property owned by Defiance, which used to be Impact’s has unlimited potential and it was really stupid to let it go. A monkey could scratch his ass and tell you where to drill.

            May 17, 2015 17:59 PM

            Thank you Bob, I appreciate it very much.

    May 16, 2015 16:32 PM

    If anyone does follow the Uranium sector, below is a great article on the rise of Russia, virtually unnoticed in the space. This article with David Talbot parallels some of the ideas Marin Katusa was discussing about the political and economic positioning Russia is doing around this critical energy market.

    http://uraniuminvestingnews.com/21872/david-talbot-on-uranium-and-the-russia-factor.html

    May 16, 2015 16:50 PM

    Say what you want about China. In 2013 I made 53 – 103% on Chinese stocks (oil, auto, real estate). Wify and I own a rental apartment in Mile County in Yunnan, and Wify is now opening a vitamin franchises in Shanghai. Cha-ching!$! Hmm, an old school cash register sounds like it’s speaking Mandarin when the drawer opens. 🙂

    May 16, 2015 16:46 PM

    Great show Al/Cory.

    Agree w/Valentin on China.

    Agree w/Rick on the next big oppty: bonds (TLT).

    Al, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but be sure to have an exit strategy for your stocks!

    LPG
    May 16, 2015 16:40 PM

    Re: Segment 3 w. Louis…

    FWIW, I believe the current move in the Chinese stock market, given its ample retail participation, is likely to create a substantial amount of wealth creation with the Chinese population involved/participating (maybe Lawrence would be able to provide some insights as I believe is family still lives in China).

    This, in itself, should translate into substantial increase in consumption and hence GPD growth in the next few quarters. Giving credit where it’s due, I didn’t come up with that idea/view: S. Druckenmiller did about 2mths ago.

    Given my personal experience with the MENA region over the past almost 10 yrs, I can TOTALLY relate to that potential sequence of events/chain reaction.

    The RELATION with Segment 3 and Louis is that, assuming the above occurs… this could lead to a pick up in raw material demand… and a pick-up in inflation figures.

    Interestingly, I note all the “big” raw material names + large commodity names have started to look up (on the charts) over the past few weeks now. Maybe this is also due to a potentially bottoming of GPD and/or inflation in the Eurozone.

    My 2cts.

    Best to all,

    LPG

    May 17, 2015 17:40 AM

    Here is a short video I really liked because it was different and pretty honest. The guy talking is a silver investor / commentator and he gets out his complaint about how the metals gurus he once worshiped all led him astray.

    In a nutshell he is saying that the guys pumping metals just never changed their tune even after the market turned down hard. They were genius all the way up but once gold and silver tanked they began to sound like broken records and they sure were not talking in the interest of their listeners.

    Heard that one before?…..from a lot of people I think. Like all the guys who bought into the convincing bullish arguments and held on all the way down to the bottom thus losing most of their profits and in some case (like mines) all their initial capital outlay too.

    That’s a hard lesson to learn. It teaches you that you must think for yourself and not be a mere follower in investing because as we all discover there are a lot of agendas at play. Rarely do those coincide with our own best interests.

    So who does this guy listen to about metals now?

    He says its all about the dialogue (not the monologue) and learning from other people he can talk to online. Sites just like this one I imagine where not many who come here are starry-eyed fools about metals market investments.

    Some of you guys will really relate to this guys complaints though. We have all been there before!

    Who I Listen to for Silver Advice — Financial survival Network
    http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2015/05/who-i-listen-to-for-silver-advice/

      May 17, 2015 17:04 AM

      I listen to nobody as nobody can predict the future and everyone has a hidden agenda, its the flow of money one needs to follow, not guru advice, using CRJ as an example with gold rising and falling over $100 this year CRJ continued to climb in value, all those calling for much lower gold would have missed out on excellent gains yet its chart indicators have lead the way correctly just as so many calling for $30-$20 oil when the indicators turned it was time to be long oil not short, charts don’t lie.

        May 17, 2015 17:14 AM

        Its probably pretty safe to say we all began by learning from others jj. In my own case with gold the education started in the 60’s and I was fortunate to be close to guys inside the business who taught me well from an early age. Not everyone gets that break though and I have heard innumerable stories of losses over the years from guys who followed the wrong pipers.

          May 17, 2015 17:29 AM

          Thankfully my mentor was a chartist who read opinions for entertainment purposes

          Anyone can call a bull market which makes all the pipers seem like experts, those that can read a chart know when to be long and when to be short or at a min sit in cash its understanding what you trade/invest in is a bull market buying the dips as the US equities have been in for years or a bear market selling into strength which the pm’s sector has been in for years.

            May 17, 2015 17:13 AM

            Makes perfect sense to me JJ. So I am always amazed by the guys who fight the tape and refuse to accept what the charts are saying. Gold bugs are just notorious for that. I still believe gold would have bottomed already had the bugs just let it go and not bought every damned dip. They just refused to believe gold was in a bear. Hell, some of them still insist its in a secular bull!!!….well on that basis the Dow has been in a bull since the year 1900 because its long run trend has been up all that time. There has got to be a rule written one day that says once a bear has been in motion more than 36 months that its not a secular bull anymore!

    May 17, 2015 17:44 AM

    I listened to Chris Martenson addressing the problem of what we do over the venal corruption now polluting the entire world. Al and Cory seem to wring their hands as to what response we can make, while Chris rightly pointed out that there is a cost to standing up and speaking out, whereby we get our electronic collar pinched, or worse.
    Sorry guys, but by doing no more than ponder a subject, and which any fool can identify as the truth we merely fall into Burke’s category of allowing evil to flourish while good men and women do nothing’. For to my mind, KER offers only token posts of outrage and stands to do so in the future. But this isn’t good enough, because it ends up as the hubris of ‘we did try warning folks’, even as the best laid plans when talking finance will still turn to ashes. For if we do NOT confront all the latent evil then all the wise words poured forth on this site will count for nothing. Everything is vanity after all, and when John Kerry tells Edward Snowden to ‘man-up’ we know we’ve entered a post Orwellian hell. HH would call this the end times, and he’s right. For if we do no more than navel-gaze then we’re all damned.
    Thank God there are other heroic social media forums truly ‘manning up’ – notably SGT report, Greg Hunter, Jim Willie, Paul Sandhu – these men being willing to run the gauntlet with these evil powers, and at no small cost to themselves. For that I applaud them with all my heart.
    If KER is to punch above its spiritual weight then the time has come to hold God’s hand, to stand tall and to truly walk the walk.

    Best to all, Andrew

      May 17, 2015 17:09 AM

      Rev, why not email God and tell him to do something about all the evil in this world, its about time, long over due for him to show up, then again he never did while all the evil rulers destroyed so many innocent people these past 2000 years, no idea what he’s waiting for, you?

        May 17, 2015 17:55 AM

        A logical question jj. But God doesn’t do logic or put another way ‘His ways are way higher than ours’. He’s not a sugar-daddy like when I have an ear infection I go to the surgeon rather than praying for a miracle. Or rather I can pray but I’ve never had a miracle as such on that score. For by reverting to some idea that God will rescue us from every predicament, we are permitting God to turn us into automatons, instead of seeing God’s love as absolutely all-consuming, and which by implication carries the rider of ‘sorry guys but you reap what you sow’. This reaping is called ‘sin’ and even if we say sorry for our sins that still doesn’t mean everything will be hunky-dory from hereon. But what it does give is the faith (which by its very nature is logic-defying) to see purpose and meaning in this broken state of our humanity. As for emailing the Almighty I do believe that absolutely every prayer we utter does get heard, even if very often we have to work out the answer for ourselves!
        Sorry if I’m not explaining this as well as I might!

        Very Best, A

          May 17, 2015 17:11 AM

          Well my comment wasn’t related to ear infections or every evil predicaments we humans self create, its the millions and millions of innocent who have lost their lives from the evil rulers you speak of in your first post, WW2 just one of dozens of examples IF there is a God why allow such evil, such horror to exist? so many prayers of the innocent falling on a deaf God(s)………

            May 17, 2015 17:07 AM

            Free will jj…… James 1: 13-16

            bb
            May 17, 2015 17:14 AM

            You know Bird, I guess you can say its free will.
            Collectively we choose to ignore these wars are for banks, collectively we decide to fight them.
            Its true, we could decide just to tell a government that wants us to fight them to go take a flying leap, but we don’t, so maybe it is free will.

            May 17, 2015 17:06 AM

            People of conscience and virtue are punished every day for refusing to mindlessly follow the herd and carry out the acts imposed on them from authority. It is just easier to fall in line and take orders rather than blaze a trail and refuse on religious grounds or beliefs. It’s a test in life. But the test is not an easy one and plenty are persecuted for not bending and kneeling. Some who stand up are imprisoned. Some are even killed. But at the end of the day we always have the ability to say no and refuse….if we choose that path.

          bb
          May 17, 2015 17:24 AM

          Look no further than he loves but mess up and he tortures you for all eternity.
          I agree with you Rev, this god doesn’t do logic.

            May 17, 2015 17:42 AM

            The way I look at it is that God doesn’t do “human logic” and that’s why he’s God and we don’t get it since we’re coming from a weak human logic. I look at the blessings I’ve been afforded my whole life and thank him every morning and evening that I have to live in a beautiful creation he’s given me. Bad things happen and that’s the way it is and I don’t dwell on the why which will drive you to distraction. It’s wasted energy. Denial? I don’t think so; just the reality he’s been there my whole life and whatever happens, he’ll be there for me again.

            May 17, 2015 17:41 PM

            Well said BM No 1 (it’s No 2 I don’t like!!). Well said Doc too. bb I don’t do a God who damns for all eternity. Any thinking person has to see God not through a mediaeval lens of superstition and prejudice. What I do do is one who says we reap what we sow and have to suffer the consequences of that. If e.g. Obama is really Frank Marshall David Junior and is a closet Muslim then he has to live with the consequences of not having the best interests of the USA at heart, because the truth always outs in the end.
            A lot of psycho/sociopaths can only end up torturing themselves, whether for all eternity I don’t know. After all it was the Church Father Origen who said that ‘in the end even devils will be saved’….something I subscribe to even if that places me in the camp of some as being a heretic.

    May 17, 2015 17:07 AM

    Granted that I do a lot of “skimming” on KER,
    but I didn’t see anyone pick up on the gold price UP manipulation.

    http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2015/05/gold-trading-today-is-for-change-quite.html

    May 17, 2015 17:07 AM

    Thank you LPG….you are one to listen to here.

    May 17, 2015 17:12 AM

    Al,
    If Valentin isn’t too fond of whats going on in China… how does he feel about the U.S.!?

    May 17, 2015 17:20 AM

    Weekly Gold chart will once again test the bulls!!

    Viewing the last two years on the weekly chart has the big puke highlighted spring of 2013 when $1525 fell (the level the bulls said would never give way) creating that first low at $1179 allowing a nice bottom trend line to be put in place as another low was created at $1130 Nov 2014.

    A perfect trend line comes in just above the lows across $1181 Dec 2013 lows and the Nov 2014 and March 2015 lows setting up the $1100 level as the next lower low support zone

    Golds weekly chart has created a perfect upper resistance zone the first comes in at $1280 created off the Aug 2013 high closes thru the July 2014 closes which lines up perfectly with the $1307 high trade Jan 2015

    What comes in play before that resistance zone is the 100MA which has been hit only once ($1307 Jan 2015) since it gave way early 2013 at that key $1650 Sinclair level gold has not close above the 100MA on the WEEKLY chart for 29 months!

    If gold can close above $1265 the 100MA the first resistance trend line comes into play at $1280 and the really big test is the upper resistance trend line created off the Aug 2013 high at $1434 and the March 2014 high at $1392 which comes in at $1300

    These are the key resistance levels the chart has clearly put in place these past 2+ years, I’m long as the chart suggests but I’m going to sell and get short if and when these resistance zones hold golds surge as it has in the past, if these levels get taken out with weekly closes the bull has returned, if not we continue to trade within resistance, support levels

      May 17, 2015 17:15 PM

      Original, good comments—-the monthly has similar patterns—that’s one of the reasons I’m not concerned when gold breaks down and scares everyone since these patterns suggest a slow breakdown instead of a catharsis breakdown. Also, why 1000 and 800 aren’t in the cards anytime soon until those downtrend resistance lines are taken out.

        May 17, 2015 17:14 PM

        We will see Doc, as I said when gold was $1180 the only way gold hits $1225 is if any suggestion of a rate hike is a June possibility gets pushed back to Sept or later, after the NFP data there is no chance of a June hike, this week we have CPI and Fed minutes which if both are inflationary and interest rate hawkish the $ will head higher, of course anyone who thinks the fed minutes are not made up days before released has their head in the sand, the Feds release just want is needed weeks after the FOMC meeting as every board meeting I ever held the minutes were released within hours, FN joke!

        Hawkish fed minutes and a decent uptick in CPI will suggest once again a rate hike sooner than later, whats key is the spin the street puts on a strong CPI, inflationary or just economic growth

    May 17, 2015 17:54 AM

    Great comment Doc

    May 17, 2015 17:43 PM

    The gold miners index has broken out of its downtrend resistance (green line) but is struggling with the pitchfork trigger line (blue).
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p79258978445&a=406400204&listNum=1

    May 17, 2015 17:53 PM

    Gold: Isn’t it interesting that the (final?) low happened on the trendline drawn off of the 2011 and 2012 highs?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=9&dy=0&id=p95449869992&a=400656952

    May 17, 2015 17:11 PM

    Fibonacci exponential moving averages are good support/resistance levels to watch. Two monthly closes above the 13 month ema will be a good start (currently 1232.60).
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=15&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46265351646&a=389211994&listNum=1

      May 17, 2015 17:18 PM

      The list is very long all the key indications, levels, gold must retake to suggest the bull has returned, until then we trade the wedge

        May 17, 2015 17:01 PM

        True, but I will be pretty sure the low is in way before all the resistance levels are taken out. The way the miners act can be very useful and they are already acting extremely well.
        This is not the late ’90s, that’s for sure.

    May 17, 2015 17:17 PM

    Well of course the resistance zones are above the lows, I’m not in the same camp of extremely well acting miners as the indexs on the weekly charts are showing the same resistance zones coming into play shortly and the key over head resistance that has held back the sector for 2+ years, certainly not making lower lows but not breaking out either as the last 6 trading days gold adds $50 yet the indexs barely pop, hardly leading a charge!

    $GDM resistance at 590 and key 700
    $HUI “………..” at 190 “…….” 220
    GDX “………..” at 22 “…..” 23.50
    GDXJ “………” at 28.65 “…” 36.50

    May 17, 2015 17:58 PM

    Great comments, Ojj, Doc and Matthew! All compelling.
    I’m in the camp of a big PM breakdown, like now!
    I do think a few of the good miners have seen their lows, regardless of the big wash on PMs.

    May 17, 2015 17:01 PM

    I do realize I’m in an extremely small camp regarding a big PM breakdown. Lol

      May 17, 2015 17:24 PM

      Chartster, for a number of technical reasons I agree. As mentioned, close to the bottom this week in the dollar and close to the top in the PMs—then I believe the metals start down for the rest of the summer although me thinks they do a leisure move down.

        May 17, 2015 17:01 PM

        Doc,
        Your TA in my opinion is second to non. I’m just looking at the the tight BBands. There is going to be Big Moves everywhere. I’m thinking this is the washout and soon to be bottom in metals. Even though most think this fall.

          May 17, 2015 17:56 PM

          Chartster, just the recent upheavel in the bond markets and the currency markets make me think something is brewing. I just get the feeling that the lave is bubbling and that we may see some interesting things happen this fall. A lot of the PM stocks I watch on a technical basis appear to be struggling higher and wanting to roll over. I’ll be selling some in the money calls soon.

            May 17, 2015 17:09 PM

            Doc,
            Something is certainly brewing. It has been for a while now. I think it’s all come to e head right here now, or within a week or two.
            Black swanish

            May 17, 2015 17:45 PM

            I tend to agree Doc and Chartster. I could see a little more rally out of the PM sector in the very short term (more Silver than Gold, and more mid-tier and small producers will do best in the mining sector in both Gold and Silver).

            However, I’ve been pretty consistent with also expecting a grind down into the summer, on a reversal in the dollar, oil, and bond markets. I had posted about the support target of the US Dollar down around 92 before I heard it mentioned on the daily editorials, and then expected it to start climbing back up to test the 100.39 highs from March 13th and move higher (cap of 110 in Sept). In addition, I put out a resistance price target range in Oil of $64-$66 where it would likely put in a temporary top, and then head back down into the low $40s ($38 is my lowest Oil target, but I see $42 as realistic by August).

            Those are the 2 main triggers I am looking at (mid-term dollar bottom, oil top) as signals that the mini-rally we are having now in PMs will be topping and reversing at that time. I could see Gold in the high 1240s maybe the 1250s and then reversing in direction back down.

            Lastly, I think if long term yields came down close to 2% (maybe just right below it), then that would put the most pressure on Gold. I would expect that to be the conclusion of the 30 year bond party, and that when I’d expect the bull market to begin in Gold. It seems like the Fall (Sept rate hike jitters) could be the catalyst for this low bond yield, surging dollar, and possibly the final bear lows in the PMs to end the 4 year downtrend. However, the bonds are very volatile, and as yields will inevitably climb (foreshadowing inflation) later in the year, then this may provide a bid for Gold.

            For now I am enjoying the mini-rally in PM and the miners, and may trim positions (by selling in May) towards the end of this month, (maybe even the end of this week).

            May 18, 2015 18:03 AM

            To clarify on the “wash out” scenario that may play out. I think when we get a dollar reversal, oil reversal, bond reversal, (in the very near future 1-2 weeks), that this will be the top of Gold in the mid-term. I think PMs start to slide in June/July, but then will do a counter-trend rally late July/early August, and then sink to the lows with the rest of the commodity sector in Aug/Sept. This could be the final wash out that destroys sentiment from June-Sept, and the conclusion of the Bear market. It will likely just be a grinding lower that tests the Nov lows of 1130, and then breaks through…not a dramatic crash, a whipsaw grind lower.

            If this does play out, and it is a reasonable probability, then that would be an excellent place to take long term positions.

            If you believe the lows really were in Nov of 2014 (still a possibility) then you may want to acquire a few positions in quality miners or mining ETFs when we get our next dip down……but not investment advice….. If you are holding for the washout, then it may be a 2-3 month process and nobody will know when the bottom is in until it is hindsight.

    May 17, 2015 17:03 PM

    The charts are really good for a dollar breakout and a PM breakdown.

    May 17, 2015 17:23 PM

    Commercial positions on the COT report for last week didn’t change much for silver but net positions in long to short position in gold increased the short position by about 3000 contracts.

    May 18, 2015 18:32 AM

    The perils of owning cash coming to a country near you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSR2NBGNcZU

      May 18, 2015 18:39 AM

      Just remember next time a gold bug says that fiat currency is toilet paper that it was they who actually lead the charge to drive paper money into extinction. As I like to say though, the great irony will be those exact same people will be the ones who eventually scream loudest when the last of the dollars are withdrawn and the printing stops. They got their wish. Good for them….but careful what you wish for.

      The haters of fiat who only love gold should think more about what they are saying next time because gold is not coming back as currency anytime soon. Instead it is being buried along with FRN’s in the currency boneyards.

      Welcome to the new world.

    May 18, 2015 18:20 AM

    Shad,
    Good post!

    The biggest play I’m following is the move away from the fiat or debt based system. That will happen anytime from now to September.
    Glen Downs spelled out what is happening in the US. The treasury is taking funds from the highway fund and other pension funds to keep the country afloat. Those funds runout in September! So, does the US wait until we are broke?
    What happens when we go to an asset based system?
    What assets are we going to use to back the USD?
    The US oil reserves are at max cops duty right now, were we waiting for that to happen before we can monetize those assets?
    How much gold do we have to monetize?
    Will the new system unwind the derivatives and debt?
    And most important: How will this play affect metals , oil and the dollar?

    This article hits some point on the graph I’m watching.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-17/belligerent-us-refuses-cede-control-over-imf-snub-china

      May 18, 2015 18:13 AM

      Yes there seems to be 2-3 things converging on the Fall August reactions to September jitters are expected. (Fed rate hikes, debt ceiling limits, seasonality, and an increasing likelihood of a larger correction in the general markets).

      I also think when oil tops in the near term and turns back down and blows through the $50s into the $40s that this should time out with the Fall as well and create the real panic in the oil patch when everyone realizes the rebound we are seeing now isn’t going to stick.

    May 18, 2015 18:22 AM

    Maximum capacity oil reserves*

    May 18, 2015 18:28 AM

    So what I think is happening is, the world is going to a new system. We get rid of the fiat debt based system. It unwinds the debt. It recapitalizes the treasury by monetizing assets and causes a liquidity event, saving the US economy. And it all has to happen before the conventional markets crash.

    May 18, 2015 18:33 AM

    Yep and China may have 30 000 t of gold to back the yuan !

    “Since 2002, the Chinese state has almost certainly acquired by these means a further 5,000 tonnes or more. Allowing the public to buy gold, as well as satisfying the public’s desire for owning it, also reduces the need for currency intervention to stop the renminbi rising. Therefore the Chinese state has probably accumulated between 20,000 and 30,000 tonnes since 1983, and has no need to acquire any more through market purchases given her own refineries are supplying over 500 tonnes per annum.”

    https://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/china-s-gold-strategy

    How much do we have now ???

    As Greenspan said:
    “If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold,” he says, “the country’s currency could take on unexpected strength in today’s international financial system. It would be a gamble, of course, for China to use part of its reserves to buy enough gold bullion to displace the United States from its position as the world’s largest holder of monetary gold. But the penalty for being wrong, in terms of lost interest and the cost of storage, would be modest.”

    May 18, 2015 18:34 AM

    Also, QE is off the table. It won’t happen.

    May 18, 2015 18:06 AM

    Cashless society in the making, far sooner than later

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30574