We take a close look at the current relationship between gold and the US dollar
Chris kicks off the day with a closer look at gold and the US. dollar. Typically an inverse relationship with the price in gold and the US dollar this could be changing at least for the short term.
Click here to visit Chris’s website – The National Investor.
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Talk about finding a” cure.”………..AOL NEWS……$187MILLION DOLLAR SCAM on the “CURE”, find a cure for cancer. Seems there was one family that set up charities to scam the public for the cure for cancer….and has reported taking in the smucks for $187million.
I would probably not call a charitable donor a schmuck.
they are smucks if they do not do their homework……..
I strongly agree. Anybody donating cash to any cause is schmuck. Charities are all scams. The projects that are funding, overhead and inefficiently is so sad. How many cancer charities are really necessary. The public is inundated with events, fundraiser, special days. It drives me crazy. They are much like most junior resource companies, their primary purpose is to fund the high salary of a few employees/directors. Charities and societies need some stringent regulation. As you can tell, big issue with me and one I feel is getting worse. Schmuck is being nice.
Peter R……WELL SAID……….
Agreed Peter….. I used to do fund raising for Veterans, for underprivileged school children, and abuse victims…….until I found out only 4-6% of the money actually made it to the cause. So out of each $1000 raised, $40 to $60 made actually went towards the reason we were raising it for. The day I found that out from my manager, was the day I resigned. That’s criminal because people think they’ve done a good thing by donating to most charities, and don’t realize they are paying for offices, employees, and even commissions. I believe in giving directly to the people doing the good work now.
direct one on one donations , no go betweens ……….. You got it SHAD.
While there are a number of charities that essentially waste money/donations there are still some very high quality organizations that I am comfortable donating to. Unfortunately some of the largest charities are the worst. I don’t like to paint them all with a negative brush.
I am guilty of generalizing. The % of good charities is probably similar to the percentage of good juniors. I am surprised there isn’t more crossover. Essentially, both are all about raising $ from schmucks.
DO not paint them, and do not white wash them…………
I mean we should not call donors “Schmucks” for the same reason we would not blame the victim of any crime. Is a woman at fault if she is raped? Is a shopkeeper a fool because he is held up a gunpoint?
Why disparage those who give with good conscience when it is the those who steal who should be pilloried? We have all had the experience of charitable giving that left a bad taste in our mouths once we learned the money was misdirected or fraud was involved.
And the millions involved in the theft you mention only tells me that those behind the scam were quite sophisticated in undertaking the theft rather than tell me the donors who gave were a bunch of losers and fools.
That is to funny……….. like they are victims of stupidity…. 🙂
That is a WORKS mentality……all wrapped up in the thoughts of doing good……, problem is the ignorant have a hard time distinguishing between works as a good thing and how it should be directed to…… and who is the shake down artist.
Trevali announces updated Stratmat Deposit resource estimate
Sabina Gold & Silver Announces Positive Feasibility Study on Back River Gold Project, Nunavut
Great Panther Silver Signs Option Agreement to Acquire Coricancha Au-Ag-Pb-Zn-Cu Mine in Peru
Another great example of the focus on high grade. I cannot recall the last junior company holding a low grade resource that got a bid.
Agreed. High grade allows companies with revenue to acquire these from explorers and still be profitable in this environment. That was a good snag by Great Panther.
Oh no doubt the market is waiting for the Fed minutes.
The times are rare and not a lasting trend, since the central banks have been so active in all markets at levels the markets have never seen before looking back beyond 2008 is not valid, better to deal in todays market action
Your point is easily seen by applying gold to the $ index chart, removes opinion completely, just the facts.
US$ does respond because all the major players seek liquidity and the reserve currency provides just that.
So what black swan event took place when the $ rose from 79 last June to the first hit of 100 in March? there does not need to be any black swan event, rate hike spin alone has bid the $ and if they actually raise rates 100 will be left behind, have a look at the $ index chart there is very little resistance after 100, 108 then 120, it can happen very quickly just as the run from 79 to 100
chart of gold and the $ trending together, rare and rarer lasting if and when
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=10&mn=11&dy=0&id=p06548065101&listNum=1&a=408999826
Based on your chart, if there was going to be a “$800 gold event”, it would have happened when the $US rose from 79-100.
Disagree Brian, this rise in the $ off 79 has been mainly due to the spin, suggestion of a rate hike and the market players are waiting to see if the rate hike cycle will be off economic growth – tiny signs of re-flation = wages etc or a rate hike forced by the feds simply to raise rates knowing full well they need that ammo to cut rates when the continuance of a strong $ takes place as global capital flows into the US markets be it equities or high end real estate, treasuries, which is the reason, which we don’t know yet will effect gold for the positive, re-flation or the negative, time will tell soon enough as the Feds have boxed themselves in, don’t suggest the US economy is strong and have a positive outlook without raising rates a mere 1/4% off zero, really!
I think it’s a big mistake to try to attach a gold price to some future level for the dollar. If the dollar gets to 120 not because it went up but because the euro, etc, fell, we’ll know it by gold’s action.
The usd was about 88 when gold bottomed last year and gold quit falling and turned up even as the dollar gained another 15%.
There is no reason why the senior currency can’t go to 120 while gold goes much higher.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&st=2001-09-06&en=today&id=p67779988766&a=366601998
Oh it could, have a look again at my gold/us$ chart its not impossible but not likely.
Its the really big money Matt that moves the markets not you or me or anyone here, even collectively, if the US does enter a rate hike cycle those with large cash deposits will enter in US$’s just to sit in cash with a small % return instead of holding bullion which pays no interest, I know it sounds so simple but there are many very wealthy Europeans who have Zillions in idle cash a rate hike in the US will suck that money in big time, we will all have to wait and see what those that move big money do, after all that’s what creates the move we all trade off, I really don’t care what they do I’ll see it on the chart regardless
JJ, you’re not distinguishing between real and nominal rates. The biggest money thoroughly understands the difference and didn’t get big by deluding themselves. A positive real rate could pose a threat to gold but I don’t think we have to worry about that.
Initial reactions to the minutes may not be lasting ones.
If the biggest money understood what you suggest they do, gold would be $2000+ its not! big money is buying high end real estate, art, US$’s and US-German equities getting out of the banking system, they are not running towards gold by any measure
I disagree. I think they rode gold up and decided it was time to book major profits on the asset of the last decade. It had risen over 85% versus the Dow so it was probably way ahead of other assets as well. Now that we’ve had four years to get things balanced again, I think gold will again be the #1 asset class (which includes silver and the miners).
At its high, gold was 80% above its 233 week ema. Today, gold would have to rise 8% to get UP to it.
Smart money is not linear in the way it sees and plays things.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&id=p55907791795&a=378836749&listNum=1&cn=294&insp=1
I stated that wrong. The Dow lost 85% of its value vs gold which means that gold went up a whopping 650% vs the Dow.
sorry Matt past history Dow-Gold etc is lost on me as I trade whats in play today fwiw its how much I make this month is all that matters
Was simply explaining why it is wrong to assume that gold should be 2000 if this or if that.
just picked $2000 out of the air, in a common sense world gold should be $5000 today, the list is far longer for it to be than not, I just trade off the swings Matt making money long or short with no axe to grind at either end, just a simple chart trader who is illiterate but wealthy
To me, wealthy starts at a constitutional million bucks —a worth equal to 48,379.2937 ounces of gold. If that’s you, congratulations. 🙂
48,379.2937 x $1210.50 = $58,563,134 ( I don’t get it, but do agree that is wealthy).
A lot of talk by the commentators on relationship between Gold and USD but I don’t see it. You might as well plot a climate change trend against Gold and try to correlate. Sure you will see some relationship indicators but in the end you need to come to terms with the fact that there are to many other factors at play to negate a direct relationship.
Shad, before FDR and the rest of the socialists took over, one million U.S. dollars was worth 48,379.2937 ounces of gold.
It meant something to be a millionaire when that word came into existence. A person with one million dollars today isn’t wealthy at all.
Oh OK….that makes more sense now. Yes the inflation adjusted millionaire isn’t in the same league as a millionaire from that time. I see what you’re saying now.
I did agree with you that in today”s terms then, a $58.5 millionaire is wealthy. 😉
http://www.outsiderclub.com/correlation-between-gold-and-the-us-dollar/475
This article essentially summarizes my feeling on the relationship or lack there of between gold and USD
Between July of 2014 and the bottom of gold in November of 2014 there was an almost perfect negative correlation between the dollar and gold, silver, the Euro, and the Pound. Now and gain the correlation exists.
Will agree to that.
This video and chart review from SuperForceJuniors is really good, even if Mr. Hubbart doesn’t always pronounce the name of the companies correctly 🙂
He goes through like 25-30 companies in about 6 minutes with charts. Worth a watch as many names in Silver and Gold Jr space that we discuss on this site are covered.
http://superforce60.com/video/2015may18sfjoutstandingvol/2015may18sfjoutstandingvol.html
Here are the companies covered in the link above:
Alacer, Argonaut, Asanko, Centerra, Coeur D Alene, DRD Gold, Dundee, Endeavour Silver, First Majestic, Fortuna, Gold Resource, Great Panther, Guyana Gold, Hecla Silver, IAMGold, Kirkland Lake, MAG Silver, McEwen Mining, NovaGold, Oceana, Perseus, Premier, Pretium Resources, Primero, Sandstorm Gold, Seabridge, Semafo, Silver Standard Resources, Silvercorp, Timmins gold.
This interview is from Monday, but it’s a nice snapshot overview.
5 BIG BANKS …FINED $6BILLION ……..aol news. My reason for pointing this out, ..it is now main stream news…Johnny six pack info. The sheeple might be waking up. jmho
I think the fines are so small compared to the hundreds of millions the banks made that they’ll just keep doing it and getting slapped on the hand. Lets raise those fines to 100’s of Billions of dollars per bank, and that would be a good start!
I meant……the “hundreds of billions the banks made”……… 🙂
My point is not the amount ,… but, the idea,… that aol news is putting out the information, and that information is geared to and is now ….in front of the common man(who has been asleep for 10 yrs.).
But, you are correct , and I have stated before….THE AMOUNT IS WAY TO LOW…
Yes, I understood that, but my point was that if the people really were waking up or honestly cared about justice then the amounts and punishments would be much more severe. If they just get, what in their world is an insignificant fine relative to the money they made through corruption, then the banks will just keep doing it.
If people were truly awake, they would never have let the government bail them out from bad behavior, and would have let them be treated to the laws of economics and free markets (which would have caused pain in 2008 and 2009, but it would have separated the good from the insolvent). Instead, we the taxpayers bailed the snakes out, and allowed them to borrow interest free for the last 7 years and juice the stock markets, bond markets, and currency markets.
So, I agree with you Frank that “the sheeple may be waking up”, but we also had many banks charged with corruption on fixing the gold price for years and it was a big yawn. Nobody really cares enough to create any real change, so it will take a true interest and movement by the masses to put the banks in their place. Seeing as how they hold sway over politics, that is unlikely to happen unless there is a mass awakening and real desire to change policy.
Shad……Ok, I see what you are saying. and I agree.
Thanks for bringing up the topic Frank as I had seen those press releases on some of the main news sites, so a few more may be starting to wake up, and that’s a good think. However, for Joe and Jane 6 pack, they just remark “of course the banks were rigging the currency markets” and then go back to business as usual, shrugging it off.
I wish more people cared, but so far they by the fear of collapse from the government and media any time a real issue comes up (like the rigging of gold markets, the rigging of the currency markets, the huge derivatives markets imbalances, the debt ceiling issue, the “government shut down”, etc…..)
People get so afraid they may have a little pain now that they just vote for passing the buck and kicking the can down the road for someone else to handle…..later. (ie their kids and grandkids).
Of course the fines are relatively small, Shad – the point is much less to punish, and more to give the impression to the masses that government officials — who are OWNED by this same system — are on the job looking out for the rest of us.
Yup, they are getting milked for political points.
Absolutely. I completely agree that it was just window dressing and a big charade of going through the motions. My point was that if the people really wanted to pressure a behavior change, then amounts of the fees and punishment would need to be substantially higher to make the banks change their plan.
If this is the only punishment they get for corruption, then their dominance and over-confidence that they are beyond the law will continue….
BTW – I just wanted to say again that I am in complete agreements with your statements above Chris Temple. Oh what a charmed life to be a bank 🙂
Completely agree Shad
Frank – This is one reason why I personally never spent much time on all the angst over gold being leveraged umpteen times over, that market being “manipulated” and all. The fact is — in this world of fractional reserve banking on steroids, financial alchemy of all kinds…what market ISN’T manipulated to one extent or another?
And further, the activity in gold is a pimple on a flea compared to the shenanigans in FX and the outright manipulation/price suppression where sovereign debt is concerned.
I think , If the common man knew , up front, that the markets were manipulated, they would definitely not be participating in any markets. You can not tell me , that 30 years ago, anyone knew that the banking system, or the stock market was manipulated. Nor, can you tell me a well educated public, that knew anything about FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING , would have anything to do with the BANKING SYSTEM as it now is.
Anyone who participated in financial markets 30 years ago was well aware all financial markets were manipulated. It’s always been true and always will be true.
Fractional reserve systems have existed for a long time. Financial bubbles existed a long time before fractional reserve systems. Human beings are still animals and need to be a part of the herd and the herd always gets it wrong. That was true of tulip bulbs in Holland, Florida land deals in the 1920 and the stock market in 2000. One day it will be true of gold.
Anyone who has money in the banking system as it stands now with plans for bail-ins already announced deserves what they have coming.
Nothing lasts forever Bob.
Now you know why Orwell wrote in 1984 that ignorance is strength. Mass ignorance, poverty and debt slavery works for the ruling elite because it keeps the common man too preoccupied and oppressed to interfere with the elites plans for the world. It is the uncommon men who are intelligent and moral that pose a problem for the powers that be.
Chris Temple – Any thoughts on the Fertilizer markets? I had written about it on your blog a few times, but would appreciate any insights you may have in this space:
___________________
On May 6, 2015 at 10:02 am,
Shad says:
Personally I went into Fertilizers and Uranium stocks today for a change of pace.
I couldn’t take it any more and did just take a good position in Mosaic (MOS) this morning. In my mind, the Fertilizer and Potash companies will start to shine in the near future.
I may still be a little early to the dance, but I’ve been watching this space all year for an entry point, and I think MOS may have just Triple-bottomed on Thursday April 30th at ($43.88, then $43.92, then $43.99). Yesterday it went down and tagged $44.04. Overall one could say Mosaic (MOS) just double bottomed twice in the $44 range, so I jumped in at $44.11 today………..what a Cosmic number.
As for FMC corp, ICL corp, Potach Corp, and Intrepid – I’m waiting for their next pullbacks and will be going in over the next month or so if I see a price I like.
__________________
Currently Mosaic (MOS) is trading at $47.25, and my call that it had double-bottomed at $44 worked out well for anyone that went for it at that time:-)
In addition I did take a position in ICL Fertilizer (ICL) last Thursday at @ $7.08 and sold on Monday @ $.7.39 because it jumped up a little too quickly and so I booked profits. However, I was impressed by that move as well.
I’m am interested in anyone’s thoughts on the Fertilizer and Potash sector as a whole.
Very bullish longer term on fertilizer, Shad
Thanks Mr. T.
I wish the people would take notice of this sort of thing but unfortunately these fines have become a normal course of business for the banks.
I want to know where this money goes…
to the politicians creating the public relations spectacle in the first place? No…. probably not there…… I’m sure it all gets used for a great cause though knowing how efficient and forward thinking the government is.
ROB KIRBY…….at usawatchdog……….today
He was pretty depressing in that interview. The most gloomy interview I have seen in months. Lets hope he is wrong about his theory.
Heck the entire situation is depressing……America is no more, Apple pie and motherhood, out the window. . What is gloomy is watch tv for 5 min.
shad & frank moscow—- Hubbartt is very good.. Kirby as well…
Agatha thanks so much for the tip the other day on Hubbarts charts from Friday!
On May 19, 2015 at 5:09 pm,
Shad says:
Matthew – we’ve had a few good discussions last week and this week about GDXJ (very helpful by the way) where we both felt the Jr miners were going to get a pop, and they did. You expected a pullback to the $25.80 area over the weekend, and then the Hubbart charts from 321 Gold on Friday echoed this idea that GDXJ would pullback to the high $25′s and then turn around and surge to around $30.
Well, when I saw the expected snapback we were discussing on Monday to $25.85 today (Tuesday), it looked pretty dang close to me, so I took a position in afterhours trading in JNUG at $23.62. It is very likely that GDXJ has further to climb before this rally is over.
On May 18, 2015 at 9:13 am,
wocsom morf knarF says: Based on weekly closes, GDXJ has not yet broken out.
On May 18, 2015 at 9:18 am,
Shad says:
WMK – GDXJ did pull back some this (Monday)morning, but didn’t fill the Gap up on Wednesday. It did surge to over $27 dollars though and has come back some. Do you expect it to still pull back to the $25.80 area before running higher?
On May 18, 2015 at 9:39 am,
wocsom morf knarF says:
Based mostly on the 1 and 2 hr charts of gdxj and gld, I think the odds are pretty good that we’ll get the pullback. But that doesn’t mean it will happen tomorrow. We might have to go a little higher first.
On May 18, 2015 at 9:28 am,
Agatha says:
Shad- you read Hubbartt on 321gold last Friday..
On May 18, 2015 at 9:48 am,
wocsom morf knarF says:
Thanks Agatha. I’m going to watch his video win a minute. Shad, here’s the relevant chart:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt051515/gdxj_first_target.png
On May 18, 2015 at 4:56 pm,
Shad says:
Thanks WMK – that seems to be in alignment with expected snapback in GDXJ to $25.80 and then a surger higher up towards 30 in the mid-term.
Definitely food for thought.
On May 19, 2015 at 5:09 pm,
Shad says:
WMK thanks for your thoughts. Agatha, thanks for the heads up on the Hubbart charts from Friday on 321 gold. Once I reviewed his thoughts, it seemed to line up with what we have been discussing on GDXJ since last week, and when I saw the $25.85 level right on cue, that was entry point I was waiting for in a swing trade to $30. We’ll see if GDXJ has further to rise before pulling back. I think it does for the remainder of the week.
On May 19, 2015 at 5:16 pm,
Shad says:
…..We were discussing at the end of the last week, the weekend show, and on Monday that GDXJ was doing well, but that a snapback to $25.80 was projected soon, and that it would then turn and go up to test the prior highs at $30.10. Then yesterday (Monday)
Agatha asked about the Hubbart charts from Friday. He was expecting the exact same pattern. So today (Tuesday) when GDXJ closed at $25.85, that did it for me, and I took a position after hours this evening in JNUG, to put money on the postion.
Now maybe I’m an idiot (very likely), but what is the point of charting and projecting if we don’t take action when the exact setup we are expecting plays out? Nobody knows if GDXJ will head up the rest of the week, but the probability based on the TA is leaning that direction.
I may turn into Jason tomorrow though with my JNUGgets crushed 🙂
thanks Agatha………….for the heads up.
Chirs, question last year your portfolio returned 14% which is basically the return an investor buying the S&P 500 or Dow Jan 1st and selling Dec 31st would have produced.
How can the return only be 14% if SRPT had an upshot over 100% early 2014….doesn’t add up.
If my recommended portfolio was all one such stock, it would obviously have done better. But I had maintained high recommended cash positions, a mix of stocks and ETF’s, and not everything goes up.
And further, it wasn’t until November of last year that I added back Sarepta
Got it Chris, too bad that 100%+ pop early Jan 2014 was missed, hey at least you didn’t ride the 70% decline afterwards ouch!
Good luck!
More fun, a few years before we rode Sarepta from under $2/share to get out in the upper $30’s on average.
Is there a relationship between the US dollar and gold?
Answer: Not in a million years! Dollars are created by and backed by debt only.
Officially gold and silver are just rocks and the price shouldn’t matter.
psssst Steven, I want some of what your smoken! yah baby!
Here you go jj, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N0IjBgyFoE
Funny.
lol, Easy Rider are real classic, smoke’m if you got um
You better ask the banks and governments what they are smoking. They created this cock eyed monetary system. As long as they are in charge the official currency is unbacked by metal and backed by debt and therefore worth nothing. The market price of metal is fiction from a monetary point of view. By the way I don’t smoke.
They are smoking through gears on the printing presses as they crank out Trillions of dollars in monopoly notes…………. Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction……
Indeed it is.
Its true Chris….there is a big wide world out there and lots of great opportunities and stocks to invest in. But there is so little time in a day to catch on to most so they just pass us by. I find I can only concentrate well on certain areas of the market and have to leave the rest to others. For example, I am not a great stock picker so tend to rely on the expertise of other guys for ideas to research. So I will look in on your site and see what you have found. Who knows, maybe you have some winners lined up.
I agree that nobody can follow it all or even part of it, so you have to pick your asset classes (equities, commodities, bonds, currencies), and then your sectors (ie Precious Metals, or Miners) and then drill down to a manageable list of stocks and ETFs.
That is why sharing ideas about great stocks within the hard assets and energy space on this site is so instructive.
I think so…and as I have argued many a time, it’s not as difficult as all that to come up with them now and then.
I am with your Bird. It is hard to find the time to filter through so many stocks. That’s why I like listening to other investors to do some filtering for me.
For something completely different, my bid for GBLX was filled today.
-point & figure price objective 0.00
“GrowBlox Sciences, Inc. is a medical cannabis research and development company.
Its product line primarily consists of a series of solutions for the commercialization of medical- grade cannabis..
The company was founded on April 4, 2001 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, NV.
Number of employees : 6 persons.”
GREAT POINTS GUYS….. Nice point on the” value” seeking players.. …ftboot