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A deeper look into Fed policies along with a book announcement

May 21, 2015

Dan Oliver joins us with a more in depth discussion of the Fed minutes and a historical look at monetary policy. This all ties in to a new book that Dan is writing which focuses on monetary policies stretching back more than 100 years.

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Discussion
35 Comments
    May 21, 2015 21:32 AM

    Dan the only one’s pushing a positive US economy is the Feds, they have backed themselves into a corner like a wedge on a chart sooner or later they can’t or can continue the positive spin, continue it and they must hike rates!

    The reason there was no big reaction off the minutes is because the feds have told the market its data dependent on any rate hikes so with no strong wording hawkish or dovish the markets focus back on economic data.

    Is it just me or is this rate hike situation completely nuts, emergency low interest rates have been in place for 5-6 years, so where’s the fire? The Dow is 180% higher off the 09 lows. All this fuss, all this delay on raising rates a mere 1/4% the feds should be completely ignored as then spin economic recovery yet they hold back a miniscule rate hike, what a bad joke

    Hope your book Dan has referenced Armstrong as he points out again and again history repeats

    If a 1/4 % rate hike sends the markets tanking we are all screwed, really a 1/4 % hike and the house of cards falls, the US equity markets have not even broken first support levels with the recent action in the bond markets

    Cory, unfortunately the markets have been a slow trickle upwards, its called a bull market bud 180% gains since 2009 is not an artificial gain, its real!

    When the US had their financial meltdown in 08 gold fell 27% and the HUI down 47% as the Dow plunged and the US$ rose 12 cents, safe heaven, hmmm

      May 21, 2015 21:39 PM

      JJ, I hope you didn’t need Armstrong to know that history repeats again and again. This was very well know looong before he was born. He did NOT discover cycles.

        May 21, 2015 21:51 PM

        No I’m not as dumb as you think, its how the capital markets react/repeat and how today the Central banks are trying to prevent the natural flow of capital which can’t be done, our markets today are intervened at levels never seen before all to prevent history from repeating.

        Cycles have been around forever, there is nobody better than M.A. when it comes to understanding them, I don’t know of anyone else that uses global market data on a daily basis to call trend instead of opinions, nor do I know of anyone here or blogs that when the shit hits the fan in China or Japan etc they call Marty for advice, do they call you?

          May 21, 2015 21:11 PM

          Woah, take it easy, I was referring to this statement of yours: “Hope your book Dan has referenced Armstrong as he points out again and again history repeats”

          Your implication here is that Marty alone figured out that history repeats.

          The MA cult is getting a little disturbing.

            May 21, 2015 21:11 PM

            Read your comment to me again Matt, doesn’t sound like any intelligence was directed at my end….the anti MA cult is still wrong and getting very disturbing

            May 21, 2015 21:18 PM

            I’m not anti MA’s cycle work, if only he’d stick to that and stop playing expert where he clearly is not. I AM anti all his true believers that don’t know how to think for themselves.

            Do you agree with his assertions that…

            —“We must be EXTREMELY careful here for to advocate the end of central banking is to advocate communism.”

            —“We need a central bank, but not one manipulated by government.”

            —“The Fed is not evil, but rather it is the manipulation of the Fed by politicians. It is use to blame for economy booms and busts while Congress avoids all responsibility.”
            ————–

            Are you THAT foolish or is this just more noise that you can’t be bothered with since you can’t trade it?

            I know he was bearish and calling for much lower gold as it put in its December 2013 low -just like a dozen other experts. I was right, he was not.

            May 21, 2015 21:11 PM

            As traders Matt and I’m not a day trader but a swing trader you should know that following M.A. is for overall trend direction like viewing the big picture at work. I’ve never made an immediate trade off his work but I know the trend at work in the background from his computer data, I don’t bother with his opinion about anything only his capital flow data which has had me buying weakness in US equities for awhile now

            I have friends in Europe who have never owned the Dax but after reading M.A. with the help of the 6 chart indicators I use they have made great % gains based on M.A. bringing attention to money flows into German equities with the possibility of a return to dollarmark just one example, another has been golds overall trend which he has been correct as we still are seeing lower highs and lows and I trade off the chart indicators knowing his data for gold is still bearish, when he turns eventually I won’t even keep a chart of any short pm’s sector etfs as I will only be selling strength buying weakness as I did from 2002

            AS I was telling Doc who is to be the chart guru here at KER, why not post charts after every commentary highlighting his opinion on xyz he tells us what he see’s but never shows it, I find that very odd, its only a stockchart, so how can anyone suggest xyz is a buy or sell without showing the chart confirms their opinion.

            I could sit in the bar with the traders I know and spat off why xyz is a clear short and everyone will ask to see the chart, gold drops $130 and CRJ goes up perfect example every chart is to be traded off on its own indications.

            So when Doc suggests he doesn’t care what gold is doing he’s buying xyz that’s fine but that’s a dangerous blanket approach to the sector, bull markets rise all boats, this is no bull market the pm’s sector is currently in!

    May 21, 2015 21:24 AM

    Good intervew Cory ! LAND IS GOOD !

    May 21, 2015 21:30 AM

    Just for you HH a simple, real simple tool/indicator you can use to keep you on the correct side of your gold cheerleading….when the indicator turns up post and pump to da moon, when it turns down, don’t post.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p73841026394&listNum=1&a=409189649

      May 21, 2015 21:09 PM

      Ha..Ha…GOLD TO DA MOON….JJ…YEEEEE .HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

      Some good comedy. However, for 6 months now I stated gold would
      trade sideways and would be locked into this trading pattern.

      This time I will play along with the disinformation….JJ.

      Thats all it is too. DISINFORMATION !!!

        May 21, 2015 21:16 PM

        HH I really feel for you, you wouldn’t know a gift horse if it licked your face, disinformation, cheeezzz man there is more information on that simple chart than any opinion from any gold expert, what a complete waste of my time

          May 21, 2015 21:26 PM

          JJ…a gift horse ???? 20/20 hindsight chart you conveniently
          made up like all your other market calls.

          Ha..Ha…JJ…you never fail to amuse me with your Barnum and
          Baileys funny acts and stunts.

          Back to business as usual JJ. To funny. Really !!!!

          UP…UP AND AWAY THERE GOES JJ IN HIS…HOT AIR BALLOON.

            May 21, 2015 21:32 PM

            HH, why not just say you don’t know how to read a chart, there is no shame in it!

            Its not 20/20 its really simple position your long and short trades on the correct side of the indicator currently short gold for aggressive traders or flat/no positions for those who like to buy the turns, real basic stuff here HH not magic, no circus act, have a look at the SRPT chart I posted under Chris Temples post today, the indicator had you long at $13 and selling at $24, no magic, no circus act

            May 21, 2015 21:44 PM

            I agree JJ. The decisions must be made before hand.

            Time stamp the trades in posts on the buy and sell.

            Trading off a historical chart with buys and sells after
            the fact.

            Show me the profits and money. Explain further.

            Sorry, I don’t get it.

            May 21, 2015 21:53 PM

            HH the chart explains it all, if you can’t see it I can’t help you

            May 21, 2015 21:08 PM

            JJ…its a nice gauge where the direction is but does not
            take in consideration all the market volatility and stop
            losses that can be triggered.

            Unfortunately, its not going to make money unless the
            timing is much more precise.

            However, its a useful tool of many. Still, to make money
            precision trades with exact timing is essential. IMHO.

    May 21, 2015 21:42 AM

    OMG… O JJ … Hilarious !!

      May 21, 2015 21:36 PM

      JJ was being a little one-sided with that depiction but I fixed it. 😉
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p73841026394&a=409201010

        May 21, 2015 21:59 PM

        I always respect the indicator as the chart shows when it turns up or down nobody knows how big a swing it will produce one could have easily suggested the turn down mid Jan was just a pullback, instead following the indicator had one short gold for $100 or for those always buyers holding off their purchases.

        The current turn down could change Fri or it could carry on to new lows, I’m not as smart as everyone here so I use what works vs guessing or egos

          May 21, 2015 21:16 PM

          Why is giving an opinion such a big deal? I also use what works but that doesn’t mean I can’t think about what MIGHT happen. I think your ego is as big as anyone’s.

            May 21, 2015 21:31 PM

            We all have big egos here. That’ what makes such good conversation.

            May 21, 2015 21:54 PM

            Ego is not a dirty word 😉
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZ9_iq0Wt6c

            May 21, 2015 21:03 PM

            that is egross

            May 21, 2015 21:21 PM

            Matt call it what ever you want to label it, ego, hope, bullish outlook, but I don’t trade off what might happen as the indicator will turn soon enough when a directional change takes place. Did your opinion/ego call the top at $1307 and not to buy GOLD because that’s the chart we are talking about until $1210 sell it again and re-buy at $1155, so if the indicator stays negative down to $1145 to still going to suggest Might is a viable way to trade, if it turns positive its reload time no opinion at this end

            May 21, 2015 21:27 PM

            Who said anything about trading what MIGHT happen? Not me.

            May 21, 2015 21:35 PM

            Skeeta, was that a young Richard Simmons singing? lol

            May 21, 2015 21:43 PM

            Brian: Wastes 15 minutes of his life researching the Skyhooks

            May 21, 2015 21:45 PM

            lol @ Matthew & Brian 🙂

            May 21, 2015 21:27 PM

            I think everybody on this site really swell 🙂

            BTW – Matthew your chart made me laugh.

    May 21, 2015 21:47 PM

    knarF,
    You were being nice by not putting the 500s on that chart, weren’t you?
    Lol

      May 21, 2015 21:13 PM

      Chartster, your 500 is quite credible compared to Dent’s 250! 😉

        May 21, 2015 21:38 PM

        You do have a sense of humour.

    May 21, 2015 21:21 PM

    If they were not doing anything shady they wouldn’t be hiding the facts in the dark. If you don’t have anything to hide. If you don’t have anything to hide. Polly wanna cracker, SQAWK!

    May 21, 2015 21:50 PM

    http://etfdailynews.com/2015/05/15/u-s-farmers-in-dire-straits-jpm-warns-of-imminent-liquidity-crunch/ JP Morgan warns of liquidity problems in America’s farm land. Maybe it’s me but I see so much of history from the 1920-1930 being mirrored today.
    At the beginning of the 1920’s prices of farm property leaped, mortgages and loans were based on these exaggerated values. When the bottom dropped out of the agricultural markets farmers could not get enough money from their crops to pay the low interest due on their properties. Rural banks saddled with these mortgages went into default. This would not have happened if there had been no boom in farmlands. DT

      May 22, 2015 22:47 AM

      Generational forgetfulness ………forgetting the past is sometimes a big no..no…, debt will kill ya………… 🙂