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Central Banks and the Economic Environment

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May 23, 2015

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Discussion
284 Comments
    May 23, 2015 23:53 AM

    Al’s only problem with his economic softwares, Cory? I hope it’s no more than that.

      May 24, 2015 24:56 AM

      Andy……saw your comment on usawatchdog……..nice………ootb

    CFS
    May 23, 2015 23:56 AM

    Excellent new guest: Dr. Hunt.

      May 23, 2015 23:27 PM

      CFS, I fully agree.

      Cory, that was a great Part 1: The Problem. Now we need Part 2: The Solution.

      Meaning, given all that he said, now what do we do? Specifically, what is he doing with HIS money? Buying gold? Does he worry about bail-in’s? If so, will FDIC limits be honored? Are brokers like Schwab safe for cash? And are the 1000 trillions of derivatives safe or not? I’ve heard it both ways. These are my biggest worries.

      May 24, 2015 24:27 PM

      CFS I agree. It would be great to have Dr Hunt on again to talk on economics.

      I wold like to hear him talk more about the central banks’ balance sheets and why they are not relevant to money supply. I guess it is because velocity of money is too low.

      However, will the velocity of money pick up at some time and what could cause that? Or does he think that velocity of money will fall even further.

      It seems to be that since the credit crisis of 2008 there was a quite sudden change of mode with the whole monetary system with the velocit of money fallin a lot and never recovering. What does this indicate? Did this happen in Japan in the 1990s or is it different in the USA, Eurozone and UK?

    CFS
    May 23, 2015 23:00 AM

    New anti-cancer nano-particle work coming out of Cornell University is also very promissing, as an alternative, but similar technology to Theralase.

      May 24, 2015 24:03 AM

      This is old news and they mentioned in one article that they needed a money partner to move the tech forward. Also this gold-iron tech doesn’t trigger a learned immuno response.

        May 24, 2015 24:04 AM

        Are you from Theralase, William?

          May 24, 2015 24:33 AM

          No but I have been following the company for about a year and do own some stock. I believe their’s will be one of the first breakthroughs to hit the market. Probably within the next two years.

      May 24, 2015 24:44 PM

      I would think that Sigma-Aldrich is probably the goto company for research chemicals. You see their stuff in UK university chemistry research laboratories everywhere and even in the flavours business.

    CFS
    May 23, 2015 23:24 AM

    Re: Cornell work:
    By combining gold and iron oxide nano-partcles with a cancer antibody and using laser light to heat:
    “It’s a simple concept. It’s colloidal chemistry. By themselves, gold and iron-oxide alloys are benign and inert, and the infrared light is low-power heating,” said Carl Batt, Cornell’s Liberty Hyde Bailey Professor of Food Science and the senior author on the paper. “But put these inert alloys together, attach an antibody to guide it to the right target, zap it with infrared light and the cancer cells die. The cells only need to be heated up a few degrees to die.”

    Batt and his colleagues – Dickson K. Kirui, Ph.D. ’11, a postdoctoral fellow at Houston Methodist Research Institute and the paper’s first author; Ildar Khalidov, radiology, Weill Cornell Medical College; and Yi Wang, biomedical engineering, Cornell.

      May 24, 2015 24:05 AM

      Again, this is exciting stuff and if someone was actively working on it that would be great, But TLT is already moving forward with their drug into human trials, It will likely be fast tracked. Its just as safe and effective. Money in the bank, and they have earnings from other products.

    CFS
    May 23, 2015 23:39 AM

    FYI:
    Market Update on Regulatory Progress in China
    May 22, 2015
    Miraculins Updates Market on Regulatory Progress in China
    for its Scout DS® Diabetes Screening Device

    Company’s Preparations for CFDA Product Testing Submission Now Complete

    May 23, 2015 23:30 AM

    Thanks for getting Lacy on. That is really a coup Al because he is really one of the best in the business and we can all respect his opinions. I have long been a deflationist however in the back of my mind I cannot seem to let go of the assertion made by Jim Rickards who heard from a government official that if push came to shove they would simply kill the dollar to balance the ledgers. Debt swould be honoured but of course that strategy comes with serious consequences. I think we would all prefer a deflation because it would be less damaging in the long run but perhaps it is now too late and inflating away the currency is the only option remaining.

      May 23, 2015 23:29 AM

      I would point out again that the wolrd is experiencing massive inflation but it’s mostly focusing in the global stock markets.

      This nonsesne about deflation just doesn’t fly if one is willing to expand their definition of inflation to include stock markets.

        bb
        May 23, 2015 23:29 AM

        That’s a good point Gary, sutherbys? auction the other day was a record 1 billion I heard,, real estate in Vancouver and Toronto are thru the roof, people are getting out of cash it seems. The price of beef in Canada sure has not been deflating either.
        Taxes go up Now in Alberta the gov talks about raising the minimum wage by about 30%-35%, that will cause a little velocity,the cost of living sure seems to be going up.

        Isis has attacked in Saudi Arabia, watch the price of oil if they keep pushing in that direction. Will that be inflationary?

        May 23, 2015 23:39 AM

        I am going to get back to you on this topic in more detail at another time Gary but for now I just want to discuss what exactly is the meaning of inflation of assets versus inflation in consumption goods.

        For me this is a visualization. And in that picture assets are behaving entirely differently than daily needs.

        We know for example that the dollar has declined without relent for most of the past 100 years since the Federal Reserve was brought into existence. During that time a cup of coffee has gone from a nickel to over two dollars a cup.

        The trend to be noted though was that consumption items such as rents, fuel, clothing, machinery, shoes, an education, utilities, public fines and taxes have increased continuously while asset prices often rose and fall with drama.

        Housing is the best example of what I am talking about. Over the very long run it roughly matches the rate of inflation in growth yet over briefer periods it can bubble, peak, pop and crash.

        And this is why I have a problem with your version of asset inflation because in essence it is really only fleeting over the long run whereas the costs of consumption goods and supplies are more durable and consistent in their perpetual rate of rise. The long run inflation cycle now exceeds 80 years.

        During that time property has risen and fallen in double digit numbers on multiple occasions.

        So while we may indeed see inflation in asset values we also know factually that those price increases NEVER retain their high valuations over the long term. Nor do they hold their lows below the trend line. Rather, we are attuned to expect declines relative the strength and velocity of that rise. And that tells us that asset inflation is not only NOT durable but that we will also get price retracements back to the mean inflation numbers following a cyclical rise.

        I cannot therefore accept asset inflation as real inflation where my pocket book is concerned. In the case of major purchases like a home, vehicle, stocks or even bonds it is my option at all times to refrain from buying when I know the costs are exceeding historical norms.

        I can opt out and avoid that inflation. Nobody can force me to buy overpriced assets.

        Food and shelter, taxes, medical expenses and clothing are another issue altogether. Those can rise and I may have no option whatsoever to avoid the increases if I want to be housed, clothed and well fed.

        Mark Carnery brilliantly noted that assets values can decline but the debts undertaken to consume those assets endure. And so that bring me to the basic problem with your idea.

        The majority of major assets that Americans consume are all acquired on CREDIT!!!!

        So yes Gary, they may indeed become inflated and you may see an inflationary trend appearing in their prices but that is just not the same thing as my pair of jeans doubling in price nor my rent rising by 2.5% annually.

        When asset prices inevitably fall (and they will) then the inflation you see today will be manifest as unrepayable debts, loans that are defaulted upon, mortgages that go asking and margin calls that bring a sense of reality back to those investors who leveraged their cash to acquire those things that were growing unsustainably in price.

        So your inflation can be REVERSED…………Let me put this another way.

        I can buy inflating assets and come out a winner by selling at the top. I can buy inflated assets and lose badly by holding on to them as prices decline which they always do.

        But I cannot win or lose in the same way with consumables like clothing, rent and food which tend to STAY inflated once they have grown in price and are entirely used up in the course of their life cycle.

        Your asset inflation theory bothers me because it has big holes in it that do not represent the kind of inflation we all know as rising prices that STAY risen and tend not to fall back again.

        Where we are going Gary is a place the world has not seen since the Great Depression. It is a place where BOTH assets and consumables decline together and wealth is evaporated even as incomes fall and consumption goes into the critical care ward.

          bb
          May 23, 2015 23:04 AM

          Nice post Bird.

            May 23, 2015 23:07 AM

            I think I over explained my thoughts. Really glad to hear you got me though. Cheers bb.

            bb
            May 23, 2015 23:03 PM

            MARKET RULES TO REMEMBER

            1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.

            2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.

            3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.

            4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.

            5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.

            6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.

            7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.

            8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down – reflexive rebound – a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.

            9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.

            10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.

            – Bob Farrell

            May 23, 2015 23:36 PM

            Excellent quote bb…Bob Farrell is one of the brightest minds of the last 50 years.

          May 23, 2015 23:31 AM

          ” During that time a cup of coffee has gone from a nickel to over two dollars a cup.”

          Also during that time the average annual wage has gone from roughly $2000 to over $40,000. So the dollar hasn’t really been destroyed as some would like us to believe.

          I’m not saying we are never going to have deflation. We certainly will at some point. I actually think we will see it eitehr later this year or early next.

          What I’m trying to get across is that in a purely fiat system where a government can print money at will, deflation will always be temporary. Case in point once Roosevelt took the US off the gold standard in 33, and doubled the money supply, deflation was halted immediately. Bernanke was also able to stop deflation in it’s tracks with the implemantation of QE1.

          And in reality Japan never experienced deflation. They’ve jsut gone through a long period of disinflation as the continual money printing has held the forces of deflation at bay for almost 30 years now.

          Because countries are no longer on a gold standard like they were in the 30’s and can expand the money supply to infinity this isn’t going to end like it did in the 30’s as a deflationary spiral. It’s going to unfold 180 degrees in the other direction and the end game will be inflationary as one global currency after another begins to collapse under the weight of out of control money creation. Japan is already well on its way to destroying the yen. Europe is not far behind. The last one standing will probably be the US dollar. But at some point it too will suffer the consequences of the idiots at the treasury and Federal reserve who believe we can get something for nothing.

            May 23, 2015 23:15 PM

            “Also during that time the average annual wage has gone from roughly $2000 to over $40,000. So the dollar hasn’t really been destroyed as some would like us to believe.” — Gary Savage

            ————

            That is an excellent point Gary.

            It also happens to be one I have mentioned here many times in the past when arguing with the gold camp who claimed the dollar had been destroyed but who also neglected to mention that our living standards have risen considerably AND that we now have many more dollars in our pockets than the people who lived in 1913.

            But you did not counter the points I made about asset inflation versus cost of living inflation. Consumption goods just cannot be included with assets when determining whether we are inflating or deflating and it is primarily because asset inflation happens in conjunction with debt accumulation.

            The problem here is that asset values are highly unstable and generally subjective to buyers but consumer goods are real (objective) in that they more closely track the fall of the dollar.

            Look at the Shanghai stock market as a recent example of how speculative behavior drives prices to extremes. Now ask yourself if you can ever recall a time that candy bars, soap, rent or vegetables ever experienced similar price increases that subsequently were erased….or even fell back to their mean.

            They did not Gary. Not as a rule anyway. Hell, we don’t even know what the mean cost of a candy bar is but we sure as heck know the mean values of stocks and property.

            And we also know that ALL speculative bubbles burst and the Shanghai will be no different than the NASDAQ of the past…of silver in 2011, of the DOT-Com rage of years past or even of the current bubble in bonds.

            Asset inflation cannot thus be compared reliably with consumption inflation.

            And that is my argument against your idea in a nutshell.

            May 23, 2015 23:58 PM

            Basically Gary, I don’t create debt, increase credit or even expand the money supply when I buy cabbage and lettuce. I don’t need a bank loan for that kind of consumption. Nor do most people.

            But when I buy stocks on margin, leverage a few dollars to buy a palace or go out on a limb to get that snappy new German auto on 8 year terms I am doing something novel that is not causing a real inflation to happen but rather to plant the seeds of a future price deflation and destroy capacity in the process.

            Carrots and Avocados meanwhile keep going up year after year.

            May 23, 2015 23:59 PM

            I seriously doubt that anyone here has any savings. If one does, he should hate the money printing and inflation. When we grow old, we supposed to accumulate wealth and we will lose the money making ability. If people can not save, what do you use to live well when you are old and what money do you have to pass over to your children. For me, it is shameful that I have to say to my sons one day that their father can leave nothing to them.

            May 24, 2015 24:49 AM

            Birdman, when you buy cabbage make some sauerkraut with it, the recipe is very straightforward and simple. Fermented food is really good for the production of proper intestinal bacteria it will boost your immune system and help you lose weight. Only eat a small amount everyday because it is high in salt but it has definite positive health effects, you know Germans love this food, need I say more. Especially if you are taking antibiotics. DT

            May 24, 2015 24:57 PM

            OK. That’s not a bad idea. I love cabbage actually but have always been nervous about making my own fermented foods because it looks to me like a way to get food poisoning if you make a mistake. Thanks for the tips though….anything thaat gets me back in good health.

            Btw, where is Al? I am also wondering if he has not relapsed. Maybe Cory will give us an update. I really hope he’s doing alright though. This place is just not the same without him.

        May 23, 2015 23:30 PM

        Gary, on deflation – you’d know better than me, but how I see it through my knot-hole is that, using 1st grade math, one can see that the $10T or so of money printed, although huge, is still far far less than the global debt, trying to recall … is it $100T or more? $10T << $100T, is how it looks to me. Therefore to me the simple answer is deflation wins. What am I missing?

          May 24, 2015 24:26 AM

          You are missing the fact that there is no limit on money creation. There is nothing stopping us from printing 100T or a 1000T.

            May 24, 2015 24:02 AM

            Money printing is not creating inflation though.

            That has been the problem since the QE’s began and it is because there is insufficient demand for money and credit. Closer to the truth, if one wanted to “kill the currency” they would do so with a variety of other tools that don’t entail printing any money at all.

            Capital controls are an example and the first amongst these seem to be the new Fatca regulations that are being implemented because those have the potential to hurt confidence.

            Another recent case is how the Russian Ruble was crashed over sanctions, a plummeting stock market, war rumblings and the like. In a third example (linked below) the Bolivar lost a quarter of its value in just a week on panic selling as Venezuelans themselves dumped their own currency in favour of dollars which are in shortage there.

            Again though, printing was itself not directly the culprit but rather only a initiating change. The truth is that bad politics was behind most of the damage. So the belief in the value of money is almost purely an issue of sentiment and confidence.

            When that is harmed the currency can free fall overnight….for example, what would the dollar be worth if a State or two sought secession or if elections were suspended due to an international crisis? We don’t know exactly but we are pretty sure that it would not be beneficial for the value of the dollar!

            Anyway, read the following story about the Bolivar. It is a classic example of someone calling “Fire” in a crowded theater and proves the herding instinct to run is alive and well.

            Currency tumbles as Venezuelans look to unload bolivars
            Bolivar loses quarter of its value over last seven days.

            http://news.yahoo.com/currency-tumbles-venezuelans-look-offload-bolivars-161058938.html

            bb
            May 24, 2015 24:13 AM

            Saw the Bolivar news a day or so ago, yup, confidence, I wonder why they didn’t back it with their gold as opposed to “pawning” their gold.

            Anyway, might be arguing symantics but money printing IS inflation, the act itself is the inflation, the rise in prices is the result of the inflation. Hyperinflation is the lose of confidence, which looks like is happening in Venesuala.

            Your right obviously that velocity is required tho.
            And as Rickards says, they can print all they want they cant make people spend it.

            Sure is telling tho, imagine the price increases should people start spending it.

            May 24, 2015 24:13 PM

            Gary, that’s true, but *so far* we haven’t printed that much. So *right now* we’re in a deflationary environment. But yes, if we printed another $100T or so, that would be inflationary.

            May 24, 2015 24:47 PM

            The velocity chart is what is giving a lot of analysts pause right now bb. It clearly has not bottomed and by the look of it the amount of time before it hits bottom can be measured in years. So we are far from out of the woods unless it abruptly changes direction.

      May 23, 2015 23:07 PM

      I’m not sure where Lacy comes up with the no increase in US debt since 2008. According to the OMB, the increase in US unfunded debt in 2010 alone was $5.3 trillion. I think it would be fair to say the increase in unfunded debt in the US according to the OMB official numbers would be in excess of $35 trillion since 2008 and that’s over and above the $8.5 trillion in funded debt.

      $711 trillion in derivatives says we have deflation. QE infinity says we have inflation. Anyone can pick a side but it’s a coin with two sides that are very real.

      http://dailysignal.com/2011/06/07/governments-unfunded-obligations-now-total-534000-per-household/

        May 24, 2015 24:53 AM

        That is up from $60,000 not to long ago……..I think within the last 9 yrs.

          May 24, 2015 24:54 AM

          THERE IS NO WAY TO PAY…………Bankrupt

            May 24, 2015 24:56 AM

            Everyone in the US of A……Will be a MILLIONAIRE SOON……. 🙂

    May 23, 2015 23:48 AM

    How do I get access to the newsletter

    May 23, 2015 23:05 AM

    Send an e-mail to Cory asking to be placed on the Golden Observations mailing list for the weekly report.

    fleck@kereport.com

    CFS
    May 23, 2015 23:16 AM

    The end of the Petrodollar:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30866

    CFS
    May 23, 2015 23:26 AM

    Angela Merkel has so far beaten every scandal which has emerged from the Euro to the NSA. She has been the real pillar in the Euro and it now seems she may have one scandal too many.
    First,there was the cell phone issue where her cell phone was tapped by the NSA. Then it came out that she knew all along and never really used the cell phone for state affairs. Now what is surfacing is that her government has been engaging with the NSA and has been spying on France and the EU Commission. If Merkel goes down, there goes Europe.
    Or maybe not so soon……..without Merkel, Greece may be bailed out delaying the collapse of Europe for a while longer.
    Why is Soros trying to cause riots in Macedonia, with Nuland’s help?
    Didn’t they do enough damage to Ukraine?

    May 23, 2015 23:20 AM

    How many newsletter writers do you know that are willing to offer a money back guarantee?

    http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/05/money-back-guarantee.html

    May 23, 2015 23:58 AM

    Anyone who has to buy the basics knows we do not have deflation.

    May 23, 2015 23:06 AM

    Before “this’ is all over..PHYSICAL SILVER will be the best investment in terms of monetary health, supply and demand fundamentals and positioning your family in a way that PUTS YOU IN A POSITION OF STRENGTH..:) I am NOT an investment advisor.BUT I AM A STUDENT OF HISTORY AND HUMAN NATURE….all roads lead to PHYSICAL precious metals…and there really isnt anything left to say!!!!..:) PHYSICAL SILVER IS THE FUTURE OF THE MONETARY FUTURE OF THE AVERAGE MAN. Gold is just ‘icing on the cake” if you can afford it…….17 BUCKS for one ounce of pure silver…do you people realize how much BLOOD, SWEAT and TEARS it takes to pull this stuff out of the ground..or are you of the ilk THAT MONEY GROWS ON TREES AND CAN BE PRINTED FOREVER…PLLLLLLLEEEEASSSE.:)

      May 23, 2015 23:23 AM

      I met a guy in Canada at university who hailed from India and he reported that his family has a twenty hectare Cashew orchard in the South of his country. It paid for his PHD and that of his sisters and brothers too. He says money grows on trees!

        May 23, 2015 23:31 AM

        Bird –
        YEp..in that instance it does! ha..good one

          May 23, 2015 23:17 PM

          Ha! ….you get a smiley face brother 🙂

    May 23, 2015 23:15 AM

    Finally, try to NOT to be like the average ‘knuckle head westerner’ …plan your investments 2 to 5 years out…quit this ‘immediate gratification” urges to a minimum…if you panic you are “DEAD”…sorry to be KURT..the truth hurts.. a lot..especially for us who think we ‘own’ we dont and NEVER did……………

      May 23, 2015 23:16 AM

      “own” the world…..

    May 23, 2015 23:18 AM

    MONEY isnt paper money… its gold and silver…PAPER money is CURRENCY used ONLY to facilitate trade and increase TRANSACTION PRODUCTIVITY…that is it…read the last 5000 years of history and get an investing clue..peace!

      May 23, 2015 23:35 AM

      Money is just a way to store productivity. That’s all gold and silver are. A wqay to store productivity without the risk of central banks debasing it.

      Real money is the productive capacity of the country issing the currency. It’s how many automobiles, computers, biotech advancements, intellectual advancements, etc. etc. the citizens of a country produce.

        May 23, 2015 23:09 PM

        Gary – “store of productivity” ..yes…exactly! paper is NOT a store value or productivity.it has been masking that since BRETTON-WOODS…slowly eating away to a complete FIAT mess…..when the ‘richest” people in the world only push paper around (derivatives) the world is in a HELL OF A MESS!!

          May 23, 2015 23:09 PM

          I would point out that gold historically has never prevented a government from inflating the money supply either…

            May 23, 2015 23:54 PM

            Gary, I would point out that there was no price inflation in the U.S. until the Fed and that owners of gold are protected from the inflation of the money supply anyway, in the long run.

            May 23, 2015 23:50 PM

            Look at the inverse. There were both depressions and price deflations prior to the Fed……that should be telling you something about hist

            May 23, 2015 23:21 PM

            Deflationary periods such as the one that lasted nearly the last quarter of the 19th century were spun into depressions by later historians.
            Thanks to technological advances, it is natural for sound money to gain purchasing power. So central banks don’t just steal the obvious purchasing power that everyone talks about, they also steal the gains that would have flowed to those who save. Contrary to the propaganda, deflation is not only not bad, it’s good.

            May 24, 2015 24:50 AM

            Deflation is not just about falling prices. That is merely a symptom of a much larger condition where asset prices correct back to norms leaving enormous unrepayable debts in their wake.

            From that perspective, a true deflation is actually a credit event marked by defaults, a contracting economy, rising unemployment, falling tax revenues and business failures.

            We are near to that now as excess capacity around the world during a period of slow growth and falling consumption trends threatens to send deflationary impulses across the globe as business cut margins and in effect export the problems elsewhere as an act of survival.

            So deflation is not good as it really speaks to an inability on the part of business, government and individuals to service debts. The effect is compounding as well. Each decline in growth in one region leads to falls elsewhere and this is where our interconnected economic systems have a great weakness.

            All can fall together. So it is fine to say that deflation is good as long as the country suffering a serious contraction is not your own. For the US for example, consumers will benefit from China’s slowdown and they can enjoy that benefit without suffering substantial jobs losses as the employment risks are all borne in Asia where labour intensive occupations have already been exported to.

            China is contracting by the way. The contraction has now become serious in the past few years to the extent nobody really knows exactly what their true growth numbers are however substantial doubt exists as to whether they are really enjoying 7% GDP growth.

            And as China is the engine of the worlds manufacturing it is therefore in the unenviable position of being behind exporting deflation to other countries as the excess capacity there leads to aggressive cost cutting.

            That’s great for us at least initially but nobody lives in a vacuum anymore and when China suffers we all eventually catch a cold. Look at the commodity exporters as just one example of how the pain gets spread around.

            On the issue of gold I will also have to disagree although that is a separate post.

            May 24, 2015 24:56 AM

            “Thanks to technological advances, it is natural for sound money to gain purchasing power”. Matthew
            ————————

            The point of sound money is that it holds its purchasing power over long periods of time. It should neither gain nor lose in its purest sense however we do know that periodic speculative periods see prices rise and fall dramatically. Gold is currently within one of those periods as it had grown in value excessively. It is therefore correcting back to more fair valuations.

            May 24, 2015 24:29 AM

            I stand by my comment above at 5:21 pm yesterday.

          May 24, 2015 24:37 AM

          I hope you know that gold won’t perform very well in the usual deflation.

            May 24, 2015 24:39 AM

            Gold does its best when there is deflation in real terms. It doesn’t matter if the fiat currency is rising or falling in that environment.

            Btw, the point of sound money is that it’s sound (honest). It is not up to you or anyone to say that it “should neither gain nor lose.” Even in the absence of a central bank, its value does rise and fall like anything else, it just does so less than anything else and in a flat to upward trend trajectory.
            If virtuous savers should not be beneficiary of the gains that technology provides, then who should be, the bankers? The answer to that question should be obvious to all, even those who don’t know that production, and therefore savings, is what drives a healthy economy not consumption and debt.

            Contrary to the statist Keynesian propaganda, falling prices are particularly good during an economic contraction. This is what ends the contraction and clears the way for new growth.

            If not for the ignorance of the masses and politicians seeking power, there would be no reason to suppress the natural consequences of foolish behavior in the first place. No case can be made that it would be a good thing to trump mother nature and reward stupidity.

            Thanks to a century of government intervention of mind-boggling proportions, there has never been so much moral hazard that needs to be dealt with. So, as expected, there has never been a time in which a higher percentage of those with substantial assets have been so economically illiterate.

            May 24, 2015 24:35 PM

            “Contrary to the statist Keynesian propaganda, falling prices are particularly good during an economic contraction. This is what ends the contraction and clears the way for new growth”. — Matthew
            ——————

            Matthew, I think your term “good” is really a subjective thing here. Falling prices are a symptom and outcome of an economic contraction and nothing more. Would you also then say it is good that prices rise during an expansion and period of asset inflation?

            About gold rising in value due to technology I am not sure what you mean. As far as I know technology neither improves nor degrades the price of gold….it only makes it easier to trade and spend as with the new Bitgold.

            May 25, 2015 25:54 AM

            I mean that falling prices are good if you want to see an end to an economic contraction sooner rather than later. In other words, the Keynesians make things worse by prolonging the corrective period with their attempts to prop-up prices by devalue their currency.

            Technology makes gold more valuable by delivering more for less. It does the same for paper currencies as well but the gains are stolen by inflation of the money supply. A popular obvious example is TVs. In this case, technology has advanced so quickly that even the dollar has gone up exponentially compared to what it could buy just 10-15 years ago. Computers and electronics in general are also very good examples. Many of these items have plunged 90% or more while still delivering far more technology than was possible a decade ago. And that’s in dollars which have lost 80% vs gold at the same time(!!!).

            Less obvious examples are the gains in manufacturing, mining, farming, medicine, and just about anything you can think of. Technology has delivered massive gains that actually allow the banksters to inflate even more without being detected (since tech makes things cheaper/increases the dollar’s purchasing power).

            Just think about what technology has done over the past few hundred years. Most of the poor in the U.S. today lives more comfortably than kings did not so long ago. Plumbing, modern medicine and cars are just a few examples of items that no amount of gold could buy in days gone by.

            Thanks to technology and Moore’s law, we have hyperDEflation going on in real terms. This would only be a good thing if not for the current monetary system and resultant political disorder. It will be papered-over, no doubt about it.

            May 25, 2015 25:50 AM

            Gotcha….That makes sense to me Matthew.

          May 24, 2015 24:45 PM

          SD MARC…….YOU ARE CORRECT………”the world is in a HELL OF A MESS!!”

    May 23, 2015 23:49 AM

    The BovineShite from SouthDakota and CantFartSitting is plenty thick this weekend.

    Thanks for posting Bird and Gary – keeps some semblance of reality ’round these parts.

      May 23, 2015 23:26 PM

      Thanks Irwin.

      Btw I am still stupidly ill. Not sure why I am even posting but I am still here in front of the terminal in my underwear trying to focus on the words and make my usual lame arguments. Its been bad though.

      I thought maybe I had cancer but the doctors cleared me after some tests. Just a very nasty, miserable bug and now I am on the second course of antibiotics since the first did not work.

      I was bored senseless staying in bed all last week so I put the staff to work on building new dog houses. I got a great idea off the internet to make them from cement and rebar (Ferrocement). And they are fabulous!! Those damn things could withstand a nuclear bomb.

      Anyone here know anything about Ferro-cement? It is really amazing.

        May 23, 2015 23:55 PM

        Birdman you could check out buddyrhodes.com A dog house maybe just the beginning ! lol

          May 23, 2015 23:15 PM

          Hey thanks! Just what I needed is a scholarship in cement. I just read that Ferro-cement is bullet proof for small caliber rounds. Who knew eh? Not that I need that kind of defense but its good to know I might hide out in the doghouse if the bullets ever start flying in the neighborhood.

      May 23, 2015 23:55 PM

      Irwitated?

    May 23, 2015 23:49 AM

    “When you look at the landscape of choices out there,..do you buy sovereign debt where there has already been a 30 plus year bull market and there probably isn’t a whole lot more room for price appreciation or do you buy the broad stock market where you have got as much pressure as you do on earnings and revenues…

    OR….do you look at beaten up commodities?” Chris Temple
    ——————————–
    Great comment Chris. Your last weeks worth of interviews were really memorable btw. I really enjoyed tuning in to hear you speak this past week.

      May 23, 2015 23:11 PM

      A, B, or C. I think I know the answer to that one.

        May 23, 2015 23:17 PM

        I will go with “C” too Doc.

        On a separate note, my computer just blew up when I opened a link either on this site or at FSN but I am not sure which. I mean to say my computer totally failed and cannot even be restored or rebooted after the failure that was initiated by a virus of some kind. Good thing I have a bunch of other machines kicking about or I could not post this warning….. *be careful what you open, link and download this weekend*!!!!

        I cannot recall a virus ever doing that to me before so this is a novelty. It is also irritating as hell. So its off to the computer shop for a clean up and format. Either that or I just destroy the old drive and try to start fresh.

        If anyone else here has a similar problem please post it so we can get a handle on what is happening.

    May 23, 2015 23:58 PM

    About current politics : The repub party needs to have some preliminary debates with 6 debaters in each. pick top two from each prelim to come up with 6 finalists for the later debates . Eliminating good candidates like carly fiorino before they even get a chance to debate is foolish . They [repub party ] need to think out of the box on this or they will have two very dull candidates on the ticket like they dod last time . Dull candidates lead to electon losses. I look forward to the dem debate between Sanders and Hllary . S

      May 23, 2015 23:30 PM

      r scott, interesting comments. The issue I have with the elections every 4 years is that it’s an exercise in futility. The partisans get all lathered up since they’re just voting for their party heads although there’s not much difference between the parties as regards foreign policy or increase in spending on the budget and leveraging debt. The difference may be on some social issues. The establishment has firm control over the members in their parties and the bureaucracy of Washington actually spews out legislation and the president and congress essentially force it on the American public. Our votes essentially don’t matter. Examples would be the unaffordable care act and the current trans pacific partnership and fast track. Both were born out of the bowels of the bureaucracy without any input by the average American. In fact, most of the time members of congress don’t have a clue what’s in these major pieces of legislation and neither do the American people. I once read a comment (I believe it was Hoover’s memoirs) to the affect that it’s easier for the establishment and the “enlightened” ones to rule over and force their wills on a democracy then a dictatorship since a democracy is weakened by dividing it into parties and competing interests whereby the participants actually think they have a role in divining the direction of the country when in fact they don’t. That’s why the attempt to overthrow democracies to replace recalcitrant dictators the “enlightened” ones can’t control. Of course, there have been popularly elected leaders in the past that the U.S. have overthrown through covert actions when the leaders of those countries don’t bend to our will. Well, enough said.

        bb
        May 23, 2015 23:25 PM

        I tend to see things the same way Doc.

        I found the idea of destroying the monarchies to install more easily manipulated democracies interesting, logical too considering who “pulls the strings”.

    May 23, 2015 23:35 PM

    ” That’s why the attempt to overthrow democracies to replace recalcitrant dictators the “enlightened” ones can’t control.”

    That’s why the attempt to force democracies on countries to replace recalcitrant dictators the “enlightened” ones can’t control.

    May 23, 2015 23:28 PM

    The average cup of coffee going from 5 cents to$2 is acceptable and a fair average but averaging the salaries with the mega rich is unfair because there has never been so many super rich in the history of the U.S.. The low cup of coffee and the high cup are somewhat close. The salaries are way out of proportion especially since the bailouts. Just my opinion. I always reserve the right to be wrong.

    May 23, 2015 23:19 PM

    One of the best shows in a LONG time! So good in fact I might have to listen to it twice! Dr. Lacy and Postma were very interesting. I have some new trader friends that I am going to share the show with next week.

    On a related note…Segment 7…How’s that hope and change working out for you all? lol

      May 24, 2015 24:25 AM

      I agree. Lacy’s interview was great. You need to hear it twice to give it justice because he covers so much territory. But we should also keep in mind that what he is talking about if negative for commodities and therefore gold. Precious metals do not perform well in deflation environments despite what the gold camp would have us all believe.

        May 24, 2015 24:40 AM

        And that’s why I’ve cautioned “patience going forward with the PM stocks. There are some indications of the inflationary groundhog popping his head out of his hole but we’ll have to see with time whether it’s a false alarm. Also, this bond market move is very long in the tooth and one of the longest cycles recorded in history. Just as climate has changed for millions of years, bond cycles have changed for recorded history.

          May 24, 2015 24:58 PM

          Looks like wild card is going to be policy responses, Doc. We just don’t know yet what may still happen that would send us in one direction or the other. Its why complex systems are so difficult to estimate. The variables are simply endless.

          Every time I feel sure of what is coming next the damn charts change.

    May 24, 2015 24:05 AM

    Inflation is the creation of liquidity – nothing more, nothing less. Price inflation is a definitive, inescapable – under any circumstances – result of creating all that liquidity. Deflation is failure of financial instruments…The huge money that’s already gone in and will continue to go in, once you open that gate, you can’t close it because of the psychological impact of closing it…Currency is not going to buy more of anything. If you’re a deflationist, you believe currency will buy more of everything. Get your definitions correct.”
    http://marketsanity.com/flashback-sinclair-inflation-deflation/

      May 24, 2015 24:19 AM

      What about supply and demand Matt? If General Motors is overstocked on its 2015 vehicles we just know a price drop is coming. And that happens regardless of changes in the money supply.

      Now extrapolate that idea out to include an entire nations productive capacity during a time when global demographic trends signal falling consumption and fewer births even as the elderly numbers mount.

      And that’s why we worry about excess capacity all over the world when economies start to slow down and populations age. You can’t fix that problem by printing money.

        Dan
        May 24, 2015 24:10 AM

        But they will try to fix it printing money….(that is why gold does well during deflation)

          May 24, 2015 24:16 AM

          Dan, gold does not do well in deflation It only did once and that was during the Great Depression when gold was confiscated and the major mines exploded in value after the price per ounce was artificially increased in a bid to devalue the dollar.

          That’s it….otherwise gold prices will fall under normal deflation conditions.

    May 24, 2015 24:04 AM

    US Federal debt : US GDP 103%
    Total US debt : US GDP 332%
    US unfunded liabilities total $96.5 trillion
    US unfunded liabilities:US GDP 552%
    US currency and derivatives created now total $598 trillion,up 550% from the year 2000.

    May 24, 2015 24:31 AM

    “Will you guys ever understand that currency induced cost push inflation is a currency event and both what you think deflation is business wise occurs along with hyper inflation?
    I have explained this at least 1000 times since 2001.”
    Jim Sinclair

      May 24, 2015 24:31 AM

      I think some people are about to get wiped out………..or at least whipped around….

      May 24, 2015 24:23 AM

      WOW!…..it really is as bad as most of us thought when you look at the situation from Charles long perspective. Inflation tracking is a great way to measure assets when you are not sure if values are fair. Certainly where real estate is concerned its a fantastic tool which has been my focus for many years. But CHS cannot be far wrong in his assessment of stocks and bonds in the big picture. Actually I think a 75% retrace is on the optimistic side if we reasonably expect a final tally correction below the long term mean.

      May 24, 2015 24:53 PM

      The DOW/Gold ratio WILL go to 1.0.
      My notes from 3 years ago say “Fall, 2016”, but that is probably early.

        May 24, 2015 24:35 PM

        Since the Dow-gold ratio went higher and higher at the major peaks following 1929, and since the low following ’66 was lower than the low following ’29, I think we can look for the Dow to bottom well below 1 oz of gold.
        For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.
        http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart

          May 24, 2015 24:58 PM

          Brian, I’m with you and have felt that for some time. I believe this will be the third time in history that the dow/gold ratio approaches 2 to 1 or 1 to 1. As I’ve mentioned, I’m following technicals from which I’ve said the odds are the gold bull starts its’ second leg no earlier then the fall of 2016. I might add it might be a little later but in the ballpark of 2016 to 2017. Of course, that’s the start. The actual ratio we’re eventually going to see of about 1to 1 will have to occur later then that.

            May 24, 2015 24:34 PM

            The only problem is that the DOW / Gold ratio is still going in the wrong direction. Secondly, it remains an assumption in the gold camp that we are seeing a dead cat bounce on that chart and that soon it will reverse course as the Dow falls or gold rises or both.

            So far it is not reality though and to this could still go either way just as considerable doubt exists as to whether the global economy goes into a super-cycle deflation or the pressure is let off by inflationary outbursts in major economies.

            The charts in this case are merely suggestive. They offer clues to the future only.

            I mention that because we have a counter argument from Armstrong stating that as the Sovereign bond defaults get underway that stock markets will soar. If his argument is valid then (in theory) the D/G ratio will keep going in the wrong direction for years to come yet.

            It’s why we often need to try and reconcile the conflicting idea we encounter. Armstrong’s arguments are fairly compelling however I remain somewhat skeptical from the deflation standpoint. Secondly, he has been wrong in the past just as so many of the other big names have been tripped up in their theories.

            Certainly the ideas of Lacy Hunt don’t jive with Armstrong view. Lacy, who specializes in fixed income, basically said to stay long bonds because we were in a major deflation trend that has not ended whereas Martin seems to suggest we get a phase transition and major reversal in bond markets….which means in other words that defaults are coming.

            Of course his ideas are a better fit with history. During the late 1920’s and early 30’s we had something like three dozen sovereign defaults across the globe and that was almost without doubt what caused the Great Depression. Those defaults included most of the major countries of South America and Europe….and it looks like it will repeat.

            Even the US effectively defaulted by revaluing gold in 1931 and devaluing the dollar. Like others here note though….I also don’t have a crystal ball so I really don’t know what will happen. My best strategy so far is to stay the hell out of debt, avoid all credit and not to buy anything that looks too inflated that may later crash.

            What else can you do?

    May 24, 2015 24:31 AM

    Any comments about BITGOLD:

    The problem with BitGold is that they have no authority to defend it and when they start becoming more significant, the governments will (without any doubt) jump in and kill them. Whether it will be a direct war (such as a ban) or a negative campaign (such as what they did to gold using paper gold/derivatives – a.k.a manipulation) doesn’t matter. No government can afford to lose a whole country’s (or even the whole world’s) debt-based/fake economy to gold.

      May 24, 2015 24:05 AM

      You have to have a currency that does not need electricity to work and has intrinsic value. If you don’t have that you have a scam that will end badly.

        May 24, 2015 24:18 AM

        Like I keep saying….the ultimate money always comes down to chickens (food).

          bb
          May 24, 2015 24:34 AM

          Your right Bird, food is money, but using it is called barter.
          Mutually agreed upon unit of exchange, o facilitate business etc etc

            May 24, 2015 24:52 PM

            Barter is a form of monetary exchange. Over here in my area of Africa I have seen firsthand how day labour is paid in a combination of food and cash. I was kind of shocked at first but have heard it is fairly common in rural areas where cash is in short supply and most land holders are still farmers. In essence, a builder or farmer will compensate his young day workers with a modest cash payment (40 or 50 cents) and a bag of grains sufficient for the workers family. That’s just life in the least developed parts of the world but it proves the concept is just as functional now as it has always been. All the rest of us just presume money is the means of exchange but that is not a universal method of payment just yet.

          May 24, 2015 24:37 PM

          If, you found wild blueberrys, or walnuts , or herb along side of the road or forest, that you could get for free….what would that be called?……WELFARE

            May 24, 2015 24:54 PM

            No Frank, if you found enough you would trade your surplus for a pair of shoes or repairs to your jeans….just as its always been done. That would make you a food-gatherer farmer. Not so different than the Hippies who used to pick wild forest mushrooms for the commercial market in the US and Canada.

            May 25, 2015 25:44 AM

            Picking up more than you need, is HORDING.

        May 24, 2015 24:31 AM

        BITSILVER…..sun powered , sure to never run dry. Avoid the grid. Money back guarantee ….. 🙂

          May 24, 2015 24:37 AM

          I think they will come to that … :).

            May 24, 2015 24:57 AM

            REMEMBER you heard it here 1st…………… 🙂 OOTB

      bb
      May 24, 2015 24:30 AM

      Gabriel, those were the same concerns with Bitcoin, but its still here and being used.

      Requireing electricity is true, does an atm? debit machine? or cash register?

      Price of gold doesn’t matter, the point is using gold. Actually, bitgold could have used anything, copper,zinc,water etc The magic about this is it works. Gold, being money tho, is convenient.

      Maybe it crashes and burns, but for those people that feel constitutional money in a modern age is worth fighting for, bitgold is the opportunity.

      I know what that sound like, but the reason we want gold/silver as currency is to restrict criminal government etc right? exactly what we spout off about regularly around here.

      I own shares tho, Im bias now,I was the first second I read about it, so my comments can be taken with salt I suppose.

        May 24, 2015 24:13 PM

        I disagree that BitZinc would have had a chance or that price doesn’t matter. As long as gold is undervalued, few should want to sell it for goods and services. Those who sell goods and services are no doubt hoping to tap a lot of fools. And they probably will.

        Those who understand will use BG to take profits by spending gold when it becomes overvalued.

          bb
          May 24, 2015 24:14 PM

          I don’t think Bitzinc would work either wmf, (but theoretically it could) thus my statement that gold as money is convenient. One reason we should use it no?
          Bitgold will be used, it will be used to transfer, say from the migrant workers back home. Ive heard Philipinoes are jumping all over this.
          I also agree that some people will consider golds valuation before using it.
          Just think how many Moslems there are, the Koran states gold/silver.
          Drachma/Dinar, I forget, but my point is this is going to have world wide implications.
          It operates on 1% the gold price doesn’t really matter.

            bb
            May 24, 2015 24:22 PM

            Whats next for Bitgold? Who is to say these private vaults around the world storing gold don’t end up offering this?
            I bet a lot of gold owners would like the idea of transacting business in gold.
            What will they do when the owners start asking to have their gold transfered to a bitgold vault?
            I can see Sprott one of the first to make arrangements.

            May 24, 2015 24:32 PM

            It would be nice to see more vaulting choices besides Brinks. Four or five would be good.

            bb
            May 24, 2015 24:39 PM

            Eventually the vault owners wont have a choice but to come to terms with bitgold, is a person going to store his gold in a vault with no option or choose a bitgold vault?
            ESPECIALLY considering the premiums.
            These other vaults have just become obsolete.
            Just time for people to realise it.

            May 24, 2015 24:26 PM

            I wouldn’t go that far. There are still benefits to having a personal account with a vault but most people can’t afford that.
            I hope GM keeps its selection of vaults.

    May 24, 2015 24:36 AM

    BB, I own shares too. But I think this stock will go parabolic and the government
    will intervene.
    Other countries like Spain, India, Mexico are starting to understand
    the way it can work for them … Imagine all others where gold increase in their currencies.

    http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/bitgold.com

    bb
    May 24, 2015 24:53 AM

    My guess is no intervention, the U.S. cant use it.
    An intervention would appear as confiscation, what happens to the gold price if they do that?
    They not confiscating Chinese or Russian gold. lol

    As for it being huge, I agree. It is BIG TIME huge, just time for it tho, its people chooseing what currency they want to do business in.

    My guess, no intervention.

      May 24, 2015 24:02 PM

      I wonder how they’re going to deal with U.S. customers of GoldMoney. If there’s intervention, I do not believe that anyone will lose their gold. Instead, I would expect something more like what they did to GoldMoney years ago to stop it from competing with banks. Such a move would be very bad for shareholders but not account holders.

        bb
        May 24, 2015 24:08 PM

        I don’t know what they did to gold money, but bitgold operates on 1% transaction fees worldwide, not sure how they could be harmed too much by hurting U.S. customers.
        Also, it cant be use in the U.S., that would minimise any impact no?

          May 24, 2015 24:24 PM

          I’m not suggesting that it would hurt BG to ditch GM’s U.S. customers, I am just curious about it because it would be a bummer for those customers to be told to go somewhere else (like Via Mat told them a few years ago).

          Since VISA will probably provide the BG debit card services, the bankers probably won’t have a problem with it.

    bb
    May 24, 2015 24:04 PM

    The advantages of Bitgold are big, I can use it at my local gas station, look at the uses for travellers, no confiscation of funds at boarders no currency exchange charges etc etc.
    Wealth outside the banking system, geez, its big.

      May 24, 2015 24:25 PM

      It’s easy to hold wealth outside the banking system; the key with BG is easy access to that wealth.

    bb
    May 24, 2015 24:41 PM

    I think we are agreeing wmf.
    Bob M is right, its the 2nd best way to hold gold.
    I asked them if I could deposit my gold, nope.
    On the flip side, I can really only use my gold as barter or sell it to a dealer then use the cash. This idea of using the gold itself …. to me, maybe Im easily impressed but wow.
    The implications, I think are staggering.

      May 24, 2015 24:22 PM

      Mike Maloney’s GoldSilver allowed me to deposit gold and silver, fwiw. As long as you have products that he deals in, he will accept them. GoldMoney never accepted metal deposits because they only deal in good-delivery bars.

      Btw, Peter Schiff’s bank has offered a gold/solver backed account with debit card for quite awhile now. From his website:

      Account Features:

      -100% physically backed and guaranteed
      -Private and secure offshore storage
      -Buy and sell online 24 hours/day
      -Competitive gold and silver prices
      -Worldwide access to your metals
      -Minimal risk for confiscation

      The debit card we issue is accepted in over 210 countries and territories and millions of merchants worldwide. You will be able to track account transactions online through our banking software.

        May 24, 2015 24:24 PM

        Silver not “solver!” 😐

          May 24, 2015 24:30 PM

          been in the sauce……. long weekend….. celebrate …

        bb
        May 24, 2015 24:44 PM

        I didn’t know that, marketing is going to play a big role I think.
        The shares in bitgold are just that, shares in a company.
        But the name? Smart.
        As I said, I didn’t know Schiff offered the service, lousy marketing.

          bb
          May 24, 2015 24:46 PM

          Also, whats the premium with Schiff now? Anytime I got messages from him his premiums were in line with all other dealers. 1% is big.

            May 24, 2015 24:21 PM

            1% is big because it’s so small. 😉
            I don’t know much about Schiff’s deal but it also is not available to U.S. citizens.

    May 24, 2015 24:51 PM

    People are going around in circles here in my hometown…………INDIANAPOLIS 500 was today…and the place was packed sky high.

      bb
      May 24, 2015 24:57 PM

      But the economy is so bad, how did they afford tickets?

        May 24, 2015 24:15 PM

        Corporate freebees………………..

        May 24, 2015 24:19 PM

        Some of the fans will be late on their rent payments next month, and the electric bill can be put on an installment plan….. Got to think out side the box …bb…not all that appears to be normal….is normal………………. 🙂

        May 24, 2015 24:15 PM

        The got the Indy in Moscow? See, that’s why I come to this site. You learn something new all the time.

          May 25, 2015 25:52 AM

          Stick around me, and you will learn something new every day………. 🙂

    May 24, 2015 24:04 PM

    The deflation VS. inflation argument is moot.
    As much as I like the concept of Stagflation Lite (c),
    I think this time it REALLY will be different; no precedent.

    OFF TOPIC to Al, Cory, and that darn “et al”

    The auto-replace feature for the “Comments” box really needs to be turned off.
    The spell-checking (squiggly red line beneath a misspelled word ) should remain.

    Not all of us have the touch-typing skills of Birdman

      May 24, 2015 24:18 PM

      Are you sure the auto replace feature isn’t on your device? I’ve never noticed it.

        May 24, 2015 24:27 PM

        OK. I’ll think about that one.

        May 25, 2015 25:54 AM

        I’ll be darned …. Browser setting needed to be turned off.

      May 24, 2015 24:20 PM

      GOOD ONE BRIAN…………………

      May 24, 2015 24:02 PM

      I type with my beak. It’s just pecking really. The little concussive waves from striking each key actually stimulate the neurons in the rear lobes of my brain. So the more I type the more ideas I get. And when I stop typing I go back to being a rather ordinary house Pigeon……true story!

        May 24, 2015 24:28 PM

        Ha ha ha 🙂

          May 25, 2015 25:28 AM

          Did I mention I get migraines from thinking too hard? Ha ha ha.

    May 24, 2015 24:09 PM

    LAKE MEAD….. LAKE LEVELS PLUNGE…………..AFTER EARTH QUAKE…….zerohedge…….check out the pictures of the water levels since 2007. Plunge protection team needs to put a stopper in the well.

      May 25, 2015 25:30 AM

      Flashcrash over …

      lakemead.water-data.com

    May 25, 2015 25:55 AM

    Indian weddings to slump this year , due to superstition, pressure on gold sales possible.

      May 25, 2015 25:18 PM

      I thought this was a great topic…………INDIAN WEDDINGS…….and effects on gold.

    May 25, 2015 25:24 AM

    BILL MURPHY from GATA……..interview at usawatchdog……today.

      May 25, 2015 25:31 AM

      To Da Moon!!!…….thanks anyway Frank but I heard that song already. That guy NEVER changes. Same hymn day after damn day. He gets points for being consistent though. Big nothing for accuracy. Want to lose your shirt on gold?….listen to Bill talk. Its all a conspiracy of course and gold is suppressed by the unknown powers who secretly conspire to destroy the real price.

      Bunch of nonsense.

        May 25, 2015 25:39 AM

        If you look from the time point of 2000, we are pretty high up now, in stratosphere, maybe. Who believed gold would be over $1000. I remember John Embry was talking about $1000 gold in 2003 and everyone was making fun of him. It was the time I started converting from bearish in gold to bullish little by little. I thought he was dreaming at begining.

        Never say never. Patience is the only thing lacking in investment.

          May 25, 2015 25:41 AM

          When you make a lot of something it worth less. This apply to currency as well as gold.

          May 25, 2015 25:10 AM

          Everyone is a genius in a bull market, Lawrence. As far as the brilliant call that gold was about to take off after 2000, well I have news for you….everyone who follows metals knew it was about to take off. Only the general public was in the dark so he does not get credit for that.

            May 25, 2015 25:21 AM

            Absolutely not. Not everyone knew. I did not. I come to the conclusion based on logical thinking. I did not hear much talk about gold rise either except a few such as Peter Schiff, John Embry, Jim Puplava, Rogers, etc. Please don’t tell me that everyone knew. When they were in interview, other interviewees did laugh at the above huys including many famous people. Unless you are telling me the prominent guys cheated on the public. it was manipulation by itself.

            May 25, 2015 25:22 AM

            If the famous guys cheated the public, are they doing it again now?

            May 25, 2015 25:43 AM

            I did say “everyone who follows metals markets” Lawrence. You would now be one amongst that small crowd of experts even if you weren’t during the early days of the bull. There is a rather small devoted crowd in the business though and they know full well gold (and most mining) functions on boom / bust cycles. And they are keen to watch for signs that beaten down markets are ready to rise again, The same thing is happening now although far too many novices are ahead of the market and predicting good times prematurely. But anybody who follows it seriously recognizes that the bear must have its day until the time is right. It comes down to patience.

            May 25, 2015 25:13 AM

            And Bird thats why the top in gold and silver was not made in 2011 as nobody really owned the pm’s sector is was the greatest bull run with the least amount of participants, even those bullish the sector held small % of their portfolio within the sector…..the next bull could be completely different, when we get there

            May 25, 2015 25:29 AM

            Look at my Shanghai A shares’ performance, I know when it comes to the explosive stage, no one can stop it. Every time I sell some, I regret but I keep doing it.

        May 25, 2015 25:50 AM

        JUST INFO…….. about UBS lawsuit, and Silver Open interest ..contracts at 180,000 …JUST INFO . and updating what you think or do not think , since ALL is manipulated, The arrangement to the SONG changes with the addition or subtraction of ensemble members….. 🙂

        May 25, 2015 25:06 AM

        Now, now Bird you better watch what you say about THE Mr Bill THE goldbug king!

        Interesting no attacks on Birds post as he highlights perfectly what a danger following Bill’s calls are to anyones wealth.

        We who bring attention to those who continue to make terrible calls get attacked yet its those who have been yelling Dow to crash, US$ to crash, WW3 etc that should be attacked. If you really want to learn something read this today but write this down and stick on your monitor vs all the very wrong calls the likes of Sprott, Turk, Moriarty the list is sooo long have been spewing these past few years!

        “Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.”

        Bob M your analysis is waaay off

        Gold and China….read it you may learn something about the markets, then again I doubt it!

        http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30779

          May 25, 2015 25:13 AM

          That was a pretty good post by Armstrong today. I was almost forgetting but he is indeed in the deflation camp. I still have trouble with his Dow to 30 or 35 thousand call though but who knows….he could be 100% correct. Maybe Socrates has the answers.

            May 25, 2015 25:23 AM

            Anyone can call a bull market, anybody! Using golds bull run as an example every boat rose with the tide, so any idiot looks good with his calls as your not wrong for long as the bull climbs higher.

            Yet why is it the gold gurus that called the bull run (again who can’t call a bull market) have completely missed the run the US equities have put in especially since gold topped, hmmm just another reason why these so called gold gurus should be read for entertainment purposes only as if they really cared about your financial well being they would have suggested buying US equities (as Armstrong did) so that one can make more money to eventually put into the gold bull when it returns and they can play their always buy songs again!

            May 25, 2015 25:28 AM

            It is funny , that the crowd …..knocked off Socrates……..No one remembers the name of the crowd,…..but,,,,,,,,,Socrates is known through out the Ages. 🙂

            May 25, 2015 25:57 AM

            JJ, I have had hard time to understand why a lot of gold bulls are bearish on stocks. I always think that stock market will rise together with gold since they have the same driver now. I believe gold will outperform stock market due to the fact that inflation will raise cost of doing business and reduce the profit. But it is secondary now.

          May 25, 2015 25:23 AM

          OJJ, perhaps you could learn something from the guy who said, “Gold, along with other private assets, will help to make the transition following the Sovereign Debt Crisis.”

          He’s saying exactly what I have said for years and what Ray Dalio said last week. We have a world awash in debt and the debt is going to get paid by someone. At that point you had better have your hands on some real assets. There is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the Dow and S&P crash, the dollar crashes and the Bond market blows sky high. The $700 trillion dollars in derivates is going to disappear and take all the paper wealth of the world with it.

          By the way, that quote came from Martin Armstrong.

            May 25, 2015 25:27 AM

            So Bob why is it you’ve never apologized for making your Dow to crash, US$ to crash WW3 just around the corner as the US goes in hyperinflation over and over again, ego!

            Imagine how badly hurt your followers were time and time again if they had given you any credit, ouch!

            Or is this your problem, yes Armstrong quote, of course!

            “Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.”

            May 25, 2015 25:26 AM

            OJJ: You need to stop putting words in my mouth. I don’t support either the hyperinflation theory or deflation. I am neutral on both. There are convincing arguments for either. Yes, someone is going to be right but QE says Hyperinflation and $711 trillion in derivatives s says deflation.

            I have never given a time frame on the DOW or $. They are going to crash for sure. That’s not trading timing and never has been. I trade neither.

            It’s really hard to tell on WW III, it might be next week or as far off as a month but Obama is working as hard as possible to get it cranking. I can’t even figure out if Syria is going to blow first or Ukraine.

            But as guy with 824 missions in combat, I can tell you this was a nuke. You think WW III isn’t coming. I can tell you with great confidence it has already started.

            http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/05/21/358343/

            May 25, 2015 25:39 AM

            Bob, google Bob Moriarty Dow to crash, it will help your memory.

            You posted a link to Turk which you posted at your site as his best work, hyperinflation, really?

            So you have missed the entire Dow run from 6500 and your a market calling expert? all because your opinion of a Dow crash is based on incorrect analysis, ouch!

            Agree there are many on this planet that WW3 has already begun as their day to day life is terrible but its still a very old forecast yet to happen

            Enjoy your Memorial Day Holiday!

            May 25, 2015 25:11 AM

            OJJ: Posting things does not equal agreeing with them. I want my readers to see all reasonable and possible alternatives. He has an opinion. Opinions are often wrong. You have the ability to throw rocks but when have you offered something that actually made money for people.

            Martin Armstrong was wrong about gold going to $200 in 2001 and my “opinion” is that he will be wrong about his 35,000 call on the Dow just as Harry Dent was in 2000. The only possible way the Dow could go to 35,000 would be if we had hyperinflation and you have put your personal guarantee that we can’t have that.

            Opinions are often wrong and the market never. You have a lot of opinions but they are often wrong. I get it right a lot and dead right now and again.

            May 25, 2015 25:30 AM

            Bob I only toss rocks at you and the so called experts when they repeatedly use dramatic language to suggest a Dow crash, yet never ever apologize for being very wrong! Your bitter because you’ve missed 180% gains in a sector you suggested would crash and when you get called on it you toss insults my way, I’m ignorant, dogmatic, one dimensional and shallow, really!

            Rick A has a call for $800 gold and you hold him with very high regard, its a much lower target just as Armstrong had years ago which can happen if levels of support fall but its not a sure thing, Armstrong adjusted his calls correctly as the trend changes, you didn’t regarding the Dow crash, hyperinflation that’s THE difference Bob

            I’m don’t have a web-site, get interviewed, suggest I’m an expert, you do, I do everything off the chart swings buying the dips in the US equity market bull while you suggest a crash and I’m the ignorant one, lol

            Enjoy your Memorial Day Holiday

            May 25, 2015 25:32 PM

            Shouldn’t Armstrong apologize for being sure that gold would go to 200 and silver to 2?

            May 25, 2015 25:41 PM

            To be clear, even I don’t think MA should apologize and neither should anyone else. It’s ridiculous, JJ; did you think that the countless talking heads should apologize for never acknowledging the gold bull during the period in which the Dow lost 85% of its gold value?
            I doubt it.
            Some traders aren’t too bright if they can’t tell the difference between actionable short term, high-odds calls and the big-picture expectations of people like Bob or Embry.

            May 25, 2015 25:15 PM

            You should know Mat you follow these cheerleaders terrible calls and defend them, not me! Your a perfect example of a sheeple, following what they want to hear

            May 25, 2015 25:22 PM

            JJ, you have no clue what I do, that much is crystal clear. You’re clearly not long common sense and your judgement needs a tuneup.

            May 25, 2015 25:30 PM

            Bob
            You said that no one has made any money from Armstrong? Why are you quoting him?
            If your ego was not so large I might admit you get it right once in a while.
            I said Bobs crazy ass calls were outrageous and fear-mongering way back.
            Bob quit guessing at the market.
            I spend 10 minutes a day and I know better than you at what is going on. Yes we are on the fringe of another problem BUT WE HAD A MAJOR REBOUND FOR A NUMBER OF YEARs and you and others scare the shit out of people and are completely counterproductive to their finacial health. No point in screaming that the sky is falling for the last 6 years when there was a monster rebound in many assets.

            May 25, 2015 25:17 PM

            OJJ: Great suggestion for me to go back and reread what I had said before ojj.

            This is what I said in May 2011 called The Ticking Time Bomb. . . after the dust settled, I began to think of the implications of the US being totally off the gold standard. For most of the last 40 years, I have firmly believed the US dollar would die as a result of hyperinflation. I was an early adopter in the hyperinflation theory and now it’s commonly accepted as how the dollar will end.

            I may have been wrong, totally wrong. We know the $600 trillion in derivatives has to disappear. The chances of $600 trillion in derivatives being around for much longer are about the same as the future of a snowball in Hell. It’s actually pretty surprising that the system has lasted as long as it has.

            Greece, Spain, Ireland, Iceland, they are just part of the burning fuse. We hear very little rational discussion about the issues. The issues are simple. The world has far more debt than it can support. Unions and workers have extracted promises from government that can never be paid. We simply cannot afford the lever of government we have but no one wants to address the issue. They keep kicking the can down the road. One day very soon the music will stop and everyone will try to find a chair to sit in only to find in this epic game of musical chairs, there are no chairs.

            http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty053011.html

            This is what the Telegraph had to say today. HSBC fears world recession with no lifeboats left

            http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625098/HSBC-fears-world-recession-with-no-lifeboats-left.html

            I understood exactly what the problem was 4 years ago and I said so and it’s just as true today. So HSBC finally gets in and uses essentially the same analogy as I did. The fact that I understood the problem a long time ago does that make me wrong?

          May 25, 2015 25:25 AM

          I admire Bill not for his forecast but his courage against the establishment. I come from a culture of admiring heroes.

            May 25, 2015 25:00 AM

            I would venture to say………neither of the two complainers, listened to the report. Therefore, only babble exist from the lips of mockers, such as in the days of Socrates, HE,HE…………. 🙂

            May 25, 2015 25:08 AM

            sorry Frank you’re no where up to speed as Bird and I am when it comes to the same individuals spewing the same incorrect crap for years, you’ll understand one day, give it time as some of us realize quicker than others…smile face, smile face

            May 25, 2015 25:45 AM

            Yes, JJ O, You and tweety are in the same cage……

            May 25, 2015 25:55 AM

            PRIDE GOETH BEFORE THE FALL….

            May 25, 2015 25:06 AM

            Don’t bug me for no reason Jerry.

            May 25, 2015 25:54 AM

            OJJ……..Where you the guy who had 15,000 oz of silver and forgot to sell at the high?

            May 25, 2015 25:03 PM

            No Jerry, that was James the Lesser. Funny he does not come here anymore. He did say he would leave until the silver price recovered though. I kind of miss his great horse racing stories.

            May 25, 2015 25:06 PM

            Thanks………I thought there was a ” J “…..somewhere in the name…..

      May 25, 2015 25:09 PM

      GREAT TOPIC……………Lots of hits………..Al’s ratings are going up………..

    May 25, 2015 25:15 AM

    For my one and only useless post of the day:

    Charlie Brooker’s Weekly Wipe (under 3 minutes)
    -how to make you sad
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HN2iVe8_Ato

      May 25, 2015 25:51 AM

      that is a HONEY OF A REPORT………………. 🙂

        May 25, 2015 25:46 AM

        Francesco – Добрый день Dobryy den’

        okay, I lied – one more useless post;
        copied from somewhere;

        Copying:
        “As an aside, for anyone thinking of getting into precious metals, anything non-bullion (that is, anything that can be sold with some numismatic value) can pose problems when you go to sell. You can take your chances on Kijiji, Craigslist, or eBay (and I’ve used them all, with mixed results), or try to find a reasonable dealer. I finally found one that would pay more than 35-40% of retail value, but it wasn’t easy. And you’ll meet all sorts and get some odd replies to postings. Precious metals tends not to attract your average person, for whatever reason.

        “So many little complications in selling. For example, if you don’t buy good delivery bars (say First Majestic silver), you might take a hit from the big dealers. And don’t even get me started on junk silver. Sure it’s cheaper, but it also sells cheaper, and it’s awfully bulky and be difficult to keep track of. It takes something like 28 of the 1968 silver 50% dimes to make one friggin’ ounce of silver. Because of it’s low cost, it’s easy to amass a lot of silver; not always easy to unload it. For true believers in holding precious metals (such as the hard currency “real money” argument), I recommend The Undercover Economist by Tim Harford. It’s not about precious metals, but the points it does make in that area are “gold” in my opinion, pun intended.”
        -done copy

        Moral of the story: If you’re not prepared to die with it, don’t buy it. And for gawd’s sake, don’t buy it with money you will need for something else.

          May 25, 2015 25:11 AM

          Great moral to the story, Irwin. You buy it, hold it and forget about it because it is really just a form of insurance anyway. Speculating is best done electronically and online. I have had my own experiences with buying physical and trying to get fair value for it later and as a result will not touch it anymore. Not with a ten foot pole. That’s for the children in the room or the people who want to pass it on to the next generation.

    May 25, 2015 25:40 AM

    jj meet the Whizzard it’s sure to be a hit in North America The Brits already love it, I wonder how it stacks up against all the other financial pundits and their predictions:
    http://www.thestar.com/business/tech_news/2015/05/22/pee-powered-urinal-ads-aim-to-capture-a-new-stream-of-revenue.html

      May 25, 2015 25:52 AM

      What happens if they miss the pot…………… 🙂

    May 25, 2015 25:27 AM

    I believe there’s no-one and I mean no-one that has a monopoly on truth. Many of the writers have good points to make about the PMs but the future is murky. Of course, we might all agree based on global debt and other data points that the future (needless to say) is going to be exciting .In Europe, you have rising angst among the commoners whether left or right and there’s no longer a lot of confidence in the EU structure and the bureaucracy of Brussels. Central banks throughout the globe have only one last arrow in their quiver and we know what that is. China along with the rest of the globe is sitting on mountains of debt with no easy answers to extricate itself. The Euroasia alliance is gathering steam especially when one looks at a new silk road in the offing which should result in the spending of billions (can anyone think commodities?).China as it leads the AIIB will gather more prominence among global nations. The BRICS will continue to evolve. Who knows how the ME turns before some stability returns? Investment returns over cycles have usually shown an inverse relationship between financials and commodities. The financials have essentially been in control for an inordinate period of time and the commidities are waiting patiently for their day in the sun again. It’s interesting to read all the differing ideas by pundits as it relates to the PM fundamentals of as it relates to the present and financial geopolitical/financial events. Regardless, just as there are those who feel man has the power to significantly influence climate events; there are those that now seem to feel that governments are powerful enough to eventually influence the PMs and relegate them to the dustbin of history. “This time is different” has been the rallying cry of past generations that have the hubris to feel they had all the answers to life’s major events/problems. That hubris is part of our generation as well and the odds are they will be proven just as wrong as the arrogance of past groups. It would behoove us to not be distracted by the noise of commentators that are positive or negative toward the PMs. Instead, it might be wise to focus on the past along with their cycles and technicals to understand the law probabilities for the PM futures.

      May 25, 2015 25:35 AM

      Exactly Doc, and its been my whole point which has been completely lost here at KER, forget the commentators learn how to read the market off a chart as they don’t lie.

      Armstrong nailed it with perfection and this is from a guy who has more trading expertise than all of us here together, certainly nobody here was the provider of liquidity in the last gold bull run 70’s-80’s as Marty was, he created the price value as we looked on!

      Print it and keep above your monitors!

      Marty: Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.

      Ask yourself did your fav gold guru follow the above or make the classic mistake?

    May 25, 2015 25:38 AM

    Have a listen to this interview. It is pretty interesting and touches on the cashless society risks, hyperinflation, velocity of money, the meaning of gold, deflationary collapse, currencies and much more. Great interview!

    Liberty Mastermind Webinar: John Embry, Gordon T. Long, and Robert Ian Join Kerry Lutz
    http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/

      May 25, 2015 25:40 AM

      Sorry about that…..try this direct link to Financial Survival Network interview I was talking about.

      Liberty Mastermind Webinar: John Embry, Gordon T. Long, and Robert Ian Join Kerry Lutz
      http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2015/05/liberty-mastermind-webinar-john-embry-gordon-t-long-and-robert-ian-join-kerry-lutz/

        May 25, 2015 25:54 AM

        gave it all a listen Bird

        Embry funny as he suggests Greenspin has a huge ego, goldbugs no egos at all, lol
        Wall St runs the US, agree!
        Cashless society, they highlight what Armstrong has for years, 2012
        http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/7462

        Yawn, the governments don’t have the right to do most of what they have done these past 2000 years, doesn’t stop them
        Embry, so now we need a global QE to send gold higher, what happened to the US QE alone producing hyperinflation, hmm, US QE, ECB QE and Japan massive QE yet no hyperinflation and no $1255 gold, no not a misprint, $1255 gold not $1500 or $2000 we are still 5%+ away from lows off 2011 highs
        Embry, Cdn$ trades with value of Oil, no sh!t put up a chart of the Cdn$ with oil running in the background, lock-step since last summers nose dive!
        Bird, I have lost track how many times Embry has called for gold and silver to take off…soon!….real soon! he has stated even more times gold stocks are at the best buy levels ever, unreal!
        Embry again, they have put pressure on gold and silver and the stocks, they is a very old, stale excuse for being wrong for a long time, it proves my point Trade it, trade everything! I will be a big buyer of silver personally when the chart confirms a breakout just as it did at $5.15 in 2002 and today its $18.60ish as the trend line resistance on the weekly chart of silver since 2011 has held every break out in check
        Yes there is so many things WRONG today but that isn’t a sure bet of a return of the gold bull today or next week!

        May 25, 2015 25:07 AM

        There was talk of a cashless society way before 2012. This Marty worship is too much.

          May 25, 2015 25:11 AM

          Btw, Embry is infinitely classier and less egotistical than Armstrong.

            May 25, 2015 25:34 AM

            Well if that’s your opinion Mat then we all here know its 100% right, Embry needs to print this and post it on his forehead when his ego suggests another look in a mirror!

            You should as well unless your above the ability and knowledge of Armstrong, lol

            “Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.”

            May 25, 2015 25:43 AM

            I love John Embry, he is a teacher and father figure. He knows inside out about the manipulation by central banks. He made Sprott Asset management from 200 million to over 10 billion.

            MARKET IS ALWAYS WRONG. IT CONSTANTLY MIS-PLACES THE PRICE OF ASSET. KNOWING MARKET IS WORNG AND BETTING AGAINST IT IS THE TRICK A LOT OF CONTRARIAN INVESTORS MADE FORTUNE.

            May 25, 2015 25:10 PM

            ojj……..is to funny…………… 🙂

            May 26, 2015 26:19 AM

            ojj:

            And with your 2nd chart you pulled the same exact warp the data to fit your opinion trick. There are several gaps in January that never got filled. So If there was a gap in September that never got filled and that proves MA correct on his Sept 3/4 magic date, what doe the gaps in January prove?

          May 25, 2015 25:59 AM

          Yes its so much too much that everyone now is making market calls off Armstrong, lol be it gold or commodities in general to higher US equities to a crash/reset in everything this fall, Marty’s computer model of global capital flows is highly regarded as it should be its correct, imagine that

          Of course all the experts will suggest it was their idea as it takes place, lol

            May 25, 2015 25:07 PM

            Kind of funny J but that’s true. Everyone and his dog is now calling 2015.75 as the turning point for metals, stocks, bonds and toilet paper. It’s getting to be hilarious from an outside perspective. But I still don’t get it because I don’t see any major change on that date.

            Maybe Martin will be a victim of his own success because when everyone believes a certain thing they are ALL going to be wrong. Too damn funny for words!!!!!

            May 25, 2015 25:23 PM

            I have no idea Bird I trade the chart if Marty said the Dow was going to zero I’d wait for the chart to confirm a breakdown, that’s why I never panicked after hearing BM call for a Dow crash $ crash hyperinflation etc, chart will show the action

            I’m sure every goldbug who hates the guy who has called the trend correctly off the top highs will point out every little incorrect move as Marty’s computer model is not 100% perfect, but of course they fail to highlight how wrong Embry has been and for how long

            Marty 100 Embry 1

            May 25, 2015 25:04 PM

            OJJ: Martin Armstrong had one of his magic turning points on Sept 4 of last year. Unless you happen to know something the rest of the world doesn’t know, nothing at all happened. It was a non-event.

            So why don’t you spend the next week pontificating on how stupid Martin Armstrong was in 2001 for predicting $200 gold and missing the entire move to $1923 and totally blowing his magic date last year?

            I think Martin Armstrong is one of the smartest people I have ever heard yet he’s been dead wrong in the past. No one, not me, not you, not anyone on this board is smart enough to figure out his silly charts with all the boxes on it. I think he’s making so many predictions that he has to be right on some of them.

            Harry Dent is brilliant at marketing and more wrong than anyone I know. But he keeps selling books. Martin Armstrong is far better at marketing but look as much as I can, I can’t find any real trading signals.

            I totally agree with BM, 2015.75 is turning into a Jim Sinclair magic number.

            May 25, 2015 25:13 PM

            Bob I know your not a chart guy but regardless put up a daily chart of the US$. $XEU, $CRB and $GNX with start dates mid August 2014, see Sept 4th all these key indexs turn hard off that date and continued that trend into late Jan and mid March

            Sometimes an event isn’t front page news but in this case shorting or adding to your short position of the CRB, GNX and the Euro$ was a big money maker as they accelerated lower off Sept 4th that and adding to a long US$ position, regardless of some experts suggesting the demise of the US$….Sept 4th clearly shows up as a turning date

            May 25, 2015 25:03 PM

            ojj:

            Adjust your charts to the 1st of July and you will see the turn was in July, not in September. Nothing happened of note in September except traders coming back from the summer vacation. Major moves started the 1st week of July. You are trying to warp the facts to fit your opinion and that never seems to work.

            If you are going to preach chart reading, you should at least learn how to read them.

            May 25, 2015 25:59 PM

            Spoken like a pure know it all, I’m well aware where the original hard run in the US$ started Bob, its the break again SEPT 4TH that took the $ to the next level, the Euro$ has a gap that has not been filled since SEPT 4TH accelerating to the downside and the $GNX index put in 7 down days starting SEPT 4TH something it didn’t repeat again till 4 months later.

            Charts don’t lie Bob, have a look, you owe me any apology because you actually learned something tonight, imagine that!

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GNX&p=D&st=2014-07-25&en=2015-01-30&id=p95570973332&a=409607193&listNum=1

            May 25, 2015 25:01 PM

            Euro$ which was the big event SEPT 4TH

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=D&st=2014-07-25&en=2015-01-30&id=p17627377073&a=409607308&listNum=1

            As Marty says Bob:

            Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.

            May 26, 2015 26:16 AM

            ojj:

            You just did exactly what I said, you warped the facts to fit your opinion. If you gave that chart to 10 people without suggesting Sept 3-4 as a special time and asked them to mark a turning point nine out of ten would say the end of Nov or after Dec 23 when there were 9 days down. Was Dec 23 some magic day as well?

            May 26, 2015 26:31 AM

            You are up with the birds Bob. I always loved the middle of the night when I was back in Vancouver….especially to watch overnight trading. Over here its just after lunch though. The sun is shining, its hot as hell and life goes on for the Bats and Vampires that rule the trading night. Hell, it was worth it to move here just so I could enjoy the action over noon tea!

            May 26, 2015 26:48 AM

            Poor Bob you should really back off as the self proclaimed expert… SEPT4TH was THE date you mentioned as a nothing date Marty is useless, well I didn’t fudge the date Bob its clearly another turn date for the Euro$ which you might have noticed, its been effecting a lot of markets, lol

            That’s the problem with you gold bugs you see only what you want to see, open yours eyes man! you might actually learn something, imagine!

            As Marty says: Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.

          May 25, 2015 25:46 PM

          Yup, the cashless society has been a subject of debate for as long as I can remember. There was even a book published with that title that came out in 1972.

          The Cashless Society by Robert A Hendrickson 1972
          http://www.worldcat.org/title/cashless-society/oclc/608613579?referer=di&ht=edition

            May 25, 2015 25:26 PM

            Ok, you get a +1 Birdman.

            May 26, 2015 26:47 AM

            You recall it too then. it was not so long ago but I suppose its a lifetime for the kids who were not even born when it was written. The only difference between then and now Matthew is that back then it was just a crazy theory whereas these days it has almost become reality. ! think that explains the urgency of all the articles and posts appearing all over the Web and even the major media these last two months. Like a light just went on in the publics mind and they exclaimed “OMG….we are really going to have a cashless society!”…..In that interview I posted up yesterday Kerry Lutz noted that cash now represents just 7% of all transactions in the USA. He has been doing his research. Another article I saw noted that most of those transactions are for a mere 21 dollars or less. Those are bubble gum and chips sales which means the people making them are very young and often very poor. As I mentioned before there is no push back against the idea of going cashless and even amongst those who still thrive on cash we can probably assume they are the least likely to be able to defend the turf. So the war is lost if there even was one to begin with. I believe it is too late to turn back the clock. Especially as society itself has voted overwhelmingly to prefer electronic money over old paper standards. There is no constituency for cash and no politician electioneering to prevent its demise. So we shall go into the Brave New World with a whimper, not a bang as money becomes exactly what the majority choose to deal with. They have voted with their cards and phones already. It is a boon for precious metals though. Probably the biggest thing that has happened for precious mertals since the gold standard ended.

            Btw, what is your opinion of Bitgold now. I am looking for a entry and I have a sneaking suspicion it has hit a relative bottom although the chart is such a short duration there is not much history to work with.

            May 26, 2015 26:21 AM

            Talk of cashless society has been around a very long time indeed, Marty was the first to highlight in details the why and who of going digital the last few years and now everyone is talking about it, go figure

    May 25, 2015 25:45 AM

    If you want to know about the history of Debt check out David Graeber’s Google talk for his book called DEBT: The First 5,000 Years. He talks about how CREDIT actually came before Money and Barter! Grain and Silver were also considered the same thing. Debt jubilees have been around way before the bible was written. He also argues that “virtual money” is nothing new and that coinage was invented to pay soldiers. And our moralizing language about debt goes back several thousands of years. Absolutely fascinating!!@!

    May 25, 2015 25:45 AM
      May 25, 2015 25:08 AM

      Thanks for the link. Do you have one for the book though because I am having trouble with video over here….not enough bandwidth most days.

      May 25, 2015 25:17 PM

      This guy is more a Marxist than an anarchist. “Markets are created by governments?” Wow.

      When are the masses going to stop looking for a free lunch and recognize that sound money and free markets are their friend?

      Thomas Piketty praised Graeber; enough said.

      For balance, here’s what a real economist thinks about a few of Graeber’s ideas:
      https://mises.org/library/have-anthropologists-overturned-menger

    May 25, 2015 25:11 AM

    (Martin Armstrong) notes the potential for Gold to rise up to the $12,000 level which is the high end of the potential range I have consistently maintained since 2009 based on the fractal relationship of the Gold:Dow ratio as seen in the 1970’s Gold Bull Market.
    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/goldrunner/martin-armstrong-economic-confidence-model-vs-gold-performance-an-update
    “First of all, I never said gold would go to $12,000, $5,000 was the best I saw. ” Martin Armstrong
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/15131

    May 25, 2015 25:14 AM

    For all you fervent gold bugs out there, it gets really interesting around the 53 minute mark. He talks about 1971 and getting off the gold standard. Also Adam Smith borrowed his “free markets run themselves” idea from a 11 century medieval Islam. Smith’s “pin-factory” idea was lifted from 11 century Islamic philosopher Al-Ghazali. Sharia law was run outside the government system and acts as the first free-market ideology. Amazing stuff!

    May 25, 2015 25:19 AM

    Are things going to get better or worse, opinions are something everyone has to quote Will Rogers. When you examine an opinion a bullish statement cannot be taken at its face value, few men like to spread alarm by making dire predictions. A man or a hedge fund with unsold securities are unlikely to say anything which will make it more difficult to dispose of them. Prophecy is a hazardous occupation. But to me the skies do not appear too bright. DT

    May 25, 2015 25:19 AM

    Looking at my precious metal holdings I cannot dismiss the reality of being a bag-holder of the tenth degree.
    However, consistent with what brought me to this point is the fact I still am not selling.
    In fact I am buyer of both physical and royalty/streaming companies.
    They say a gambler possesses a sub-conscious desire to lose.
    Maybe a bag-holder to the tenth degree, although not above critique, is simply dollar cost averaging until he lightens up as the lines form a the coin shops.

      May 25, 2015 25:36 AM

      Dennis, did you ever have an exit strategy?

      Armstrong….“Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.”

        May 25, 2015 25:05 PM

        jj. the banks just paid a handsome fine because the fixed the price of money.
        The over-night cost of money was rigged.
        Markets may always be right but only to the extent the market reflects fraud.
        Markets, especially the markets effected by frau,d will overcorrect as the market moves and the fraud is revealed.

          May 25, 2015 25:15 PM

          Good one Dennis………………

          May 25, 2015 25:26 PM

          Dennis, I could careless if the markets are rigged, I’ll ride that trend and make money, I don’t use manipulation as an excuse, should oil have fallen from $85 to $46 as I was short? should it have risen from $43 to $60+ as I was long in between those levels, don’t care…………..so bought into the pm’s sector with no exit strategy, yikes!

            May 25, 2015 25:14 PM

            “I could care less” means that you care. I hope your trading is a little more precise.

      May 25, 2015 25:23 PM

      In the end, I have a feeling your position will be validated

        May 25, 2015 25:28 PM

        most can’t afford eventually in the end, Doc

          May 25, 2015 25:02 PM

          How do you know this? It looks like a careless assumption to me.

    May 25, 2015 25:37 PM

    CHINA sets up GOLD INVESTMENT FUND, for central banks………..60 countries join.. 100 billion in funding…………..zerohedge.

    May 25, 2015 25:11 PM

    Increasing tensions between the U.S and China have me thinking that the Rare Earth Sector might not be a bad place to place some cash. Technically this hasn’t shown up on the charts,but when it does I will already be selling.

    May 25, 2015 25:37 PM

    Mat you crack me up! lol

    JJ, you have no clue what I do, that much is crystal clear. You’re clearly not long common sense and your judgement needs a tuneup.

    Your ego suggests you know every trade I’ve ever put on, you have no idea what I do that I know, its crystal clear. You obviously have no common sense with the clowns you defend, your judgement means nothing of course according to you every chart you post is the chart to follow every opinion you post is the only opinion and everyone you have respect for has made fantastic calls over and over again, not!!

    Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.

      May 25, 2015 25:13 PM

      You’re a funny guy, jj. I’d still like to know what changed with you. You were much mellower and as wrong as anyone here just a couple of years ago. What’s the deal? Is it that you finally found a hero to look up to and mimic? Your attitude is now very much a strain of Marty’s.

      P.s.- I have never claimed to know anything about your trades nor have I doubted your success (though maybe I should) so I don’t know what you’re babbling about.

    May 25, 2015 25:23 PM

    This is what changed me Mat, I have been a swing trader all my life I bought gold, silver physical sub $400 and $6 with the idea of never, ever selling it. I traded the gold and silver stocks all the way up and all the way down just as I do any sector that is producing swings worth riding. While I traded off the charts I gave a listen to the experts while the gold bull was in full swing and after the bull peaked 2011 I still held all my positions off the chart never from the gold gurus as I was trading long and short, I can remember well that the gold bug crowd swore the $1500 level would never fall, it did and that’s when I sold all my physical holding that week based on a huge chart break down, a very valuable lesson, everything must be traded, sure I left a lot on the table as I should have traded my physical position as I did my stock holdings. The money I received from selling my physical holdings April 2013 I put into the US equity markets after seeing a clear bullish pattern forming on the charts from Sept 2011 AND the suggestion to do so from Armstrong all the while in the background the Embry’s and Turk’s, Sinclair’s, Sprott continued to promote owning the pm’s sector, never US equities!

    So I learned a very valuable lesson, everything should be traded, bitter no I’m not as I continue to trade the stocks long and short, and I don’t nail every top and bottom like you do but I take a decent % out of any decent swing the market creates long or short.

    Gold is 20% lower from where I sold and that money thanks to 2and3X etfs has increased big time buying weakness as the US equity market bull runs

    Its the perma bulls that continue to suggest buy, buy, buy changing their reasons as previous reasons prove over and over again to be wrong that boil my blood.

    Everytime gold has a decent pop its to da moon, everytime is falls hard its going to nil, really bulls and bears have a look at the weekly charts, we have been trading a massive channel since $1500 making lower lows and lower highs which is investing 101 = not a bull market

    You have claimed Mat that I missed any big run up in the pm’s sector many times in the last year, who the H do you think you are? That shows me you are a typical sheeple following those that have been wrong for years suggesting they are worth the air they waste with every Dow crash gold to da moon spew, your bitter towards Armstrong because he has called the last 3+ years correctly and all the pied pipers have been completely wrong, wrong, wrong!

    So that’s why I highlight the reasons why following Turk’s advice on buying silver these past 3+ years is dangerous to anyones financial well being, the truth hurts and obviously the gold bugs can’t handle the truth.

    Will gold be $5000 or $500000 one day I have no idea or care, I trade, but I will continue to warn those who perhaps don’t realize when they read an article about the coming hyperinflation in the US made from some guy who hasn’t called anything right for years to invest off the chart not some clown who’s over educated to the point he should take Marty’s advice and take his head out of his own A**

    Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate, our analysis is at fault not the market.

    Mat it wouldn’t matter what I write you can’t stand the fact I’m right and that I don’t care about all the noise, you can’t trade noise, that you’ll find out sooner or later, then again perhaps your ego will never allow that, I don’t care if Harry Dent is right and gold goes to $500 and the Dow 5000 all I know is I will make money off the chart along the way and that’s ALL THAT MATTERS

      May 25, 2015 25:30 PM

      Oh and I have no time for those that like to point out to everyone how smart they are when they see oil hit $45 after suggesting it would do so from $75 but MAKE NO MONEY because they don’t have any faith in their own opinion to put any money behind it, how old are you?

      If I told my boss that call and walked into his office when $45 was hit and he asked me fantastic how big was your position and I told him I didn’t have one, well I’d be out of a job!

      NOISE!!!

        May 25, 2015 25:21 PM

        JJ, I don’t know what or who you’re talking about. Oil is not something I’ve cared to talk much about here so you are confusing me with someone else. I haven’t pointed out how smart I am about any oil call because I don’t think I’ve made any significant oil calls here.
        As for not making money or putting money behind my calls, you couldn’t be more wrong. I bought XOP into its low and said so here while I was doing it. The same goes for GDXJ and many miners. Again, you are confusing me with someone else and again I hope you are more precise with your trading. Confusion’s no good.

          May 26, 2015 26:55 AM

          saying you don’t care about oil means you do and you’ve not made any money trading a huge swing market, too bad!

            May 26, 2015 26:03 AM

            I did not say I don’t care about oil. I made plenty on it but only my buying of XOP was mentioned here. Trying grasping what you read for once.

            Booking profits on SPY puts today. Weeeeeeeee!

            May 26, 2015 26:16 AM

            Me too!

            and AMZN, GOOGL, and NFLX weekly puts. Only one stinker today 🙁 ….oh well

    May 25, 2015 25:44 PM

    (Martin Armstrong) notes the potential for Gold to rise up to the $12,000 level which is the high end of the potential range I have consistently maintained since 2009 based on the fractal relationship of the Gold:Dow ratio as seen in the 1970′s Gold Bull Market.
    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/goldrunner/martin-armstrong-economic-confidence-model-vs-gold-performance-an-update

    “First of all, I never said gold would go to $12,000, $5,000 was the best I saw. ” Martin Armstrong

    May 25, 2015 25:06 PM

    SOO i SEE ! MART , Original , Bird , Andrew , frank off ? BB , , CFS ! AL IN THE ???? ONLY GOLD !!!!!!!!!!!!!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7OPuc4KZZY

    May 26, 2015 26:06 AM

    And to you franky….!!

    May 26, 2015 26:35 AM

    Libor rates are rising. The changes seem tiny on a 20 year chart however like any rates they carry significance when the changes are measured over shorter terms. For example, the 12 month rate has jumped 50% in just the past year. It’s a big move and the trend looks to be going back up meaning that interbank lending risk is rising (if not actually normalizing). Plug in one of the shorter time periods to see what I mean.

    Historical LIBOR Rates Chart —
    http://www.macrotrends.net/1433/historical-libor-rates-chart

    May 26, 2015 26:37 AM

    Looks like a bad day is shaping up for metals. Silver off 1.5% already at this early hour. Gold is following it down.

      May 26, 2015 26:40 AM

      Of course two other important things have happened. The dollar broke overhead resistance and the Euro broke its support. As a result, crude is also falling as is natural gas. This is a stronger dollar bounce than I expected but I still believe its just a bounce, not an attempt to retake the highs.

        May 26, 2015 26:46 AM

        Bird, I would believe the odds of your position being correct is pretty good.

          May 26, 2015 26:05 AM

          Thanks Doc….and Good Morning to you too. Don’t you guys ever sleep?

            May 26, 2015 26:06 AM

            That’s pretty funny—-you sound like my wife who stumbles out of bed and looks at me incredulously and says: “don’t you ever sleep”?

    May 26, 2015 26:04 AM

    Thousands of posts later….DUH !!! Bulls And Bears….WRONG ..

    START ..thinking..SURVIVAL…..Pronto !!!! The clock is ticking.

    The world faces catastrophe and life will be dear. The tragedy
    is everyone has all their judgments misplaced. Profits or golden
    profits…ITS NOT GOING TO MATTER !!! Many of us may never
    live to experience too many more days on this planet.

    They are itching to get this thing started. NWO and world war.

    I can tell you it could come at anytime. Judgment is on its way.

    Seek refuge in God now. One day soon it will be too late to avoid
    the great pain and suffering thats sure to come.

    THESE ARE FINAL WARNINGS TO PROCRASTINATORS !!!!!!

    Without a shadow of a doubt and I know its definitely coming.

    You can be a 100 % sure of it !!!!! Like I said, the clock is ticking.

      May 26, 2015 26:12 AM

      HH….great to hear from you………..thanks for showing up.

        May 26, 2015 26:50 AM

        Thanks Frank. Hope all is well. Its all bad
        news for the US and World. Jade Helm is
        definitely a martial law and America take
        over exercise because they know everything
        is going to collapse.

        Ireland voted in gay marriage. The US will decide
        in weeks but its legal in 28 states as I believe it is
        now. Jerusalem will be divided as the vatican has
        now made that decision to do so. New International
        highways and road stops are almost complete. BiG
        transformation. O supports the divide and TPP is
        leading us into the dark ages as well.

        All very bad decisions so we can expect a very bad
        catastrophic event. All planned of coarse.

        We really are doomed. Those who are sitting on the
        fence should seek God ASAP. All believers should be
        doing the same with judgment coming. Our only security
        that we can count on. Fear not like Greg says but one
        must be really in a relationship with our Lord God.

          May 26, 2015 26:51 AM

          Lost world, lost generations , what a shame. Much was given , much was expected, and much will be lost. It is not going to be pretty for the majority. But, As Greg says …”fear not”. .
          Never did I expect Ireland to vote 60-40 . BEST Jerry

            May 26, 2015 26:28 AM

            Very well said. The majority is 99%. NWO could be much higher
            percentage wise. Who ever is left. Actually, I was in disbelief up
            until end of last year. All the pieces in the puzzle fit though.

            As usual, we will see. My mind is made up and just waiting for
            infliction now. May God speak to all our hearts.

            Thanks and peace and blessing to you Jerry “The Good Shepherd”.
            You are definitely a peace maker. Highest regards !!!!!

            May 26, 2015 26:56 PM

            HH….I do not know about” a peace maker”………only that I am at peace….Highest regards to you my friend………

            May 26, 2015 26:45 PM

            Ha..Ha…a good guy never admits who he really is.. 🙂

            May 26, 2015 26:57 PM

            That is why you are …..HH………good guy ….no one knows your real name….. 🙂

            May 26, 2015 26:11 PM

            Not me Frank. I’m an old dirty rag in need of a savior.

            Thanks for the nice thoughts though.

            Signed,

            Ole Dirty Rag…. 🙂

            May 26, 2015 26:09 PM

            Rags to Riches ,,,,story in the making………. 🙂

            May 26, 2015 26:06 PM

            Remember, white with saddle interior. Like Franky would
            say…bye..bye BUY….

            The Connoisseurs World Of RR. 🙂

    May 26, 2015 26:49 AM

    Here is link I will put up…and not because it is good or interesting or especially worthy but just because it irritated me for the poor analysis offered and because it is just another example of gold pumping that is not helping anyone.

    Bob Thompson in this interview notes that gold did “very well in the Great Depression” and so therefore miners are a good buy today. Apparently Bob does not really know a lot about the Great Depression nor even why gold prices rose and miners did well.

    Seriously, I don’t know how often this has to be repeated but the ONLY reason gold miners did well at that time was because gold had been confiscated by the US Government and a floor was put under its price. Secondly, the price was revalued and the Administration bought all the production that could be dug out of the ground.

    Some gold stocks soared, mine profits went ballistic and dividends went off the charts.

    Bob is not a stupid guy of course and I am quite sure he knows his history. What I am saying in other words is that his interview comes across to me as dishonest and I think he should think twice about trying to manipulate listeners emotions by feeding them inaccurate and incomplete information and passing it off as facts.

    Secondly, Bob states that miners are a great buy today because many are discounted 80% or more but what he does not tell you is that miners were seriously inflated in price before they declined. How do we know the correct value therefore when they have come off a bubble peak?.

    For example, lets say that average shares traded for 100 dollars at the peak but they now trade for only 20 dollars. There is your 80% decline. But what if the real market value is only 30 dollars a share. That hardly represents an 80% discount anymore does it?

    That’s what I call being bullshitted by data. What Bob is saying is factual but it does not tell us anything valuable about where gold mining shares should really be trading. That’s the business of the market and the market has already decided gold mines ain’t worth snot.

    So maybe they are not discounted 80% at all…..maybe gold mines are fair value until the industry cleans up its act a little more and we see a genuine purge of the garbage that still populates the boards.

    Just saying…..

    Ask The Expert – Bob Thompson (May 2015) Sprott Money News
    http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2015/05/ask-the-expert-bob-thompson-may-2015-sprott-money-news/

      May 26, 2015 26:13 AM

      Good post Bird, as long as this industry is known as a major polluter then these small companies’ value will not be based solely on production but on social responsibility also. “Burning matches” as Doug Casey says. I keep it simple by going by the G/S ratio chart. It is showing a coming correction. I have taken profits and may coast through most of the summer.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$SILVER

    May 26, 2015 26:53 AM

    Bird you can insert many names into your paragraph, James, Eric, John, Bob the list is too long! This is what the gold experts have been spewing for years, not only since gold has been in a bear market but leading up to the top as well.

    ….. is not a stupid guy of course and I am quite sure he knows his history. What I am saying in other words is that his interview comes across to me as dishonest and I think he should think twice about trying to manipulate listeners emotions by feeding them inaccurate and incomplete information and passing it off as facts.

    May 26, 2015 26:18 AM

    Rick A would love this article today, deflation, not inflation and not Hyperinflation B.M.

    From the master forecaster of capital flows:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/28832

    May 26, 2015 26:11 AM

    The Ferguson protestors were paid? Sheesh. That’s what it has come to? Nobody really cares about issues anymore and the only way to get them out demonstrating is with a payment of 5000 per month from George Soros. Seriously….I must be reading this thing wrong because that’s just crazy. Anyway…why is he paying people to wreck downtown Ferguson?

    http://www.newsmax.com/US/Ferguson-Missouri-paid-protesters/2015/05/25/id/646587/

    May 27, 2015 27:44 AM

    Lawrence- Bill murphy got into trouble I believe in 1999 re gold (I think).
    Bob Moriarty knows what it was a I recollect but may be mistaken..
    Bill M is not all smelling roses…he does have history.. maybe someone can shed light…

    May 27, 2015 27:46 AM

    Soros….cmon Bird…hed pay for anything.
    I don’t believe anyone can pay to get out of hell though…