Friday Market Commentary from Chris Temple
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Or you could walk in a circle 😉
You still need to pay for your snacks ! And dear for never say for how the bell tolls !
Snacks? We don’t need no stinking snacks! (movie sarcasm)
Federal Prison is better than State prison….or so I’m told
It tolls for THEE !
Highlighted the $ action Thursday, chart is a day old
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p82346047331&listNum=1&a=409776590
Armstrong: Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate our analysis is at fault – not the market.
I particularly like you comment about “our analysis”.
Not mine Al, its Marty Armstrong’s, every trader, investor should understand its meaning or continue to be wrong, the Market is never wrong, we are!
I agree with Chris re: the “microcosm”.
If all of these things/items are truly going up (and I think they are) and show up within inflation data, then the Fed will hike. “Plain simple”, IMHO.
Low unemployment + pick up in inflation data + elevated S&P = Cubs winning the world series = Fed hike. 🙂 (ok, maybe I got the last 2 in the wrong order 🙂 ).
And for anyone who doesn’t pay too much attention, watch the discussions on wage hikes. Lastly, keep in mind that the focus is not on inflation but on inflation expectations…
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
DUST, took 18% profits after holding for 8 days, never disagree with indicators
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p62278452282&listNum=1&a=409963998
Indicators are lagging systems JJ. I would rather follow price with the indicators as a form of confirmation. Just my opinion
Traders, pro traders that is don’t get hung up on nailing bottoms and tops, that’s the amateurs approach, I’ll take 80% of any swing any day and that’s what the indicators have given me for 40 years. 18% return in 8 days, it took Chris T all of 2014 to produce 14%, bad example I know
That is true.
“I will tell you my secret if you wish. It is this: I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” – Baron Rothschild
I agree with this but not for my most speculative juniors which I like to buy when fear is at a peak.
WMK,
+1
I truly miss these washouts periods when stocks get trashed.
Best to you, and hope all’s well.
LPG
Buy and sell the meat in the middle.
Agreed. I rarely get the exact bottom and sometimes sell too soon, but typically I catch the middle action in smaller trends, within larger cycles.
Agree with you there, JJ and Matthew
DWTI, never argue with indicators, sold short oil position at flat, no gains, no losses
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DWTI&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p17898824519&listNum=1&a=410104654
I see you like the Slow Stochs, like me. I Like the bear and bull signals that Lane pointed out. Those are great and have really helped me make some great trades.
I use 6 indicators Mark, I highlight the SS for traders/investors here to simplify anyone can remove the noise playing in the background of any market and make money of the true swing in motion that Mr Market produces
Good luck
Too many indicators for my blood. I use two on the lower time frames and three on larger. Six indicators is “noise” in my book. But one must trade with the tools that make them most comfortable.
good luck to you too!
too funny as actual chart indicators I use 5 as well the 6th is the opposite of ego and hope the most dangerous of all indicators, yet used by so many market (so called) experts
“Hope” destroys accounts. “Hope” is what the Goddess of Greed is waiting for, when one decides to display it within the markets. I’ve learned from “hope”….THE HARD WAY – LOL!!
I also no several excellent traders who don’t use indicators, and some that only use one. So I would again say:”To each their own. If it works for ya, stick with it!”
BTW…I hope you don’t think I’m attempting to insult you, JJ. Just expressing my perspective.
stay frosty
no worries its all about making money using what ever works and if its doesn’t stop using it, lol
Good discussion Original JJ and Mark Alan. Mark agree with you that too many indicators can turn into their own noise. I like watching for 2-3 indicators to converge on a point (ie….something like a move down/up to a bollinger band, that coincides with a 200 day moving average, that also has a MACD cross all at the same spot). This will give me an indication of a support or resistance level, or potential turing point or target.
Cory mentioned “weakness” in the GDP in Europe. I assume that was a proxy for Eurozone. This caught my attention…
I kind of felt intrigued by this comment.
So here’s a link to EU28 GDP figures in Q1 15 and over the past quarters.
Suggest anyone to really take a look at the figures – especially for the main countries within the EU.
Granted, YoY GPD figures are weak (hence I can understand Cory’s comment of “weakness”), but if anything, EU GDP seems to have found a floor over the past few quarters.
IMHO, this is not surprising given 1) lower Euro (boost for export) and 2) lower oil prices (boost for margins and somehow, private consumption). It seems also that lending activity is picking up/bottoming out – keep this in mind too.
I continue to believe that an uptick in inflation expectations ought to be expected globally in the next few months/quarters, and their signs are already emerging. Beside:
+ In the EU, gvts are taking it easy on the fiscal side (those in place don’t want more Siriza style of parties to be elected in the next elections… so taking it easy on the fiscal side is one way to work on that)
+ In Japan, some Japanese firms are hiking wages,
+ In the US, wage hikes/minimum wage hike talks seem (to me) to be gaining some traction – and I don’t expect this to subside given that there’s an election next year.
All of these factors point to me to a desire to reflate consumer spending, leading to upticks in inflation expectations in the months/quarters to come.
My 2cts.
LPG
I read this and I just smiled:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/irs-admits-refunding-billions-fake-tax-returns
What a joke… seriously…
LPG
Yeh, I too saw that.
More than a smile to my face!
The IRS is one of the most corrupt and inept organizations of all time.
Who would know if Federal prison is better than State prison if actually had to serve.
the comment above from you, Mark Alan, about hope in investing, if taken correctly, is so very true. Trust me, I know!
I think everyone here, Big Al, has learned that the hard way. Just wish I was one of those who had learned in the beginning.
In Europe we enjoy Queens and comunist ! and ??? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNjgzzmMYu8
YES i AGREE ! IN PRISON YOU STAND STILL !