Gold, Investments and Global Issues
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: CEO and President of First Majestic Silver, Keith Neumeyer joins us to chat about his letter to the COMEX President Timothy Massad.
- Segment 2: An update from Chuck Provini, President and CEO of Natcore Technology, explains what it means to be a fully reporting SEC Company.
- Segment 3: Analyst Jayant Bhandari discusses gold demand in India.
- Segment 4: Bill Holter from Miles Franklin is back on the show chatting about the roll of gold in times of declining economies.
- Segment 5: Dan Kurz* from Naples Asset Management chats about the global issues around the world with central banks and where it will end.
- Segment 6: Brent Cook of Exploration Insights discusses the advantages of decoupling investment actions regarding mining companies from the price of commodities.
- Segment 7: We continue to chat about the markets and gold with Avi Gilburt, Founder of the Elliot Wave Trader. He is saying volatility is ahead of us.
- Segment 8: Michael Belkin of The Belkin Report closes up the show chatting about the conventional markets and gold stocks.
*Disclosure: This is Dan Kurz, investment advisor for Naples Asset Management. My remarks today are general in nature. They are personal observations based on global financial, economic, and political developments and trends. My observations are topical on the date made and reference asset valuations, interest rates, and inflation rates as of the same day only. I am not soliciting business. I would welcome follow-up discussions with listeners/potential clients as regards strategic portfolios should they be interested and assuming my firm is duly licensed in the listener’s state.
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Dan is a good person and a pleasure to talk with!
Thanks to Cory.
Interesting comment from Martin Armstrong:
Germany and France have called for the establishment of a central EU authority for the eurozone to raise taxes independently. This plan is part of a package of proposals for far-reaching integration of the single currency zone: the federalization of Europe. Currently, only national governments may levy taxes. This is part of the step to save Europe and then consolidate the debts. This will become a war against the people, shaking them down to save a failed system design from the outset. This is a significant change and the final straw in the Death of Democracy. If such a power is handed to Brussels, they see it as their way to shakedown the Greeks, and the Greeks will see this as their government betraying their own people.
Meanwhile (CFS comment) Greece appears to be getting ready to default at end of June.
Only Angela Merkel giving in will negate Greece leaving Eurozone, and I can’t see this Iron Lady giving in.
I’m still not sure they’ll be allowed to default and leave the EU – seems to me if they do leave then Italy and Spain would have a precedent to follow, and wouldn’t that ruin Germany?
The central issue isn’t what the effects would be. The central issue is why would you loan more money to someone who is a serial deadbeat who can’t pay their old bills much less anything more that you hand them.
Greece is bankrupt. They were bankrupt 4 years ago and loaning them money does not help anyone. Do the German taxpayers want to work until they are 70 to allow the Greek deadbeats to retire at 50?
When people start using “austerity” as a four letter word, you know the financial system is totally broken. Austerity means living within your means and no matter what we would like to do, supply and demand eventually force people into living within their means.
It’s really interesting that the countries most interested in BitGold are Spain and Mexico. That means there is big trouble there that is invisible to us now.
Your last point is very interesting, Robert J!
DITTO BOB………DEAD BEAT IS CORRECT, KIND OF LIKE AL’S TENANTS……
Every single one is a also dishonest to the core!
Kind of like govt.
Big invisible trouble like what?
Peter R: We can’t know now, they are invisible but the fact that those who are in Spain and Mexico want a gold standard for themselves says a lot. I would have expected Greece to be #1.
Isn’t every nation bankrupt? Not just Greece?
So using that def, isn’t every nation deadbeat?
To me, Greece is the example that we must all face one day.
I myself wish for justice, and freedom. But won’t likely see it unfortunately, because I agree w/Big Al that people are dishonest to the core.
I can see a Constanza moment on the horizon.
Greece will try and breakaway from the EU….but the break up just won’t take.
Greece will want out but the EU will keep their tentacles in there.
I would be amazed if that actually happened in Europe.
What odds would you give it??
Beware the Ides of September – crash cometh the next day!
Aircraft crash every day dot dot don’t get your hopes up.
-or, you could shove your hopes where the sun don’t shine.
THE MOON?……No Sunshine on the MOON…….TOO THE MOON……..LOL
NEWMWYER AND COMEX:
It is just common sense to question how a commodity can be priced by a system that cannot deliver even a small fraction of claims at any price, and that is not required to even deliver that commodity. Like many people that make their money in the market we sometimes believe perception is reality, but it only true until it isnt.
When gold is required to provide its insurance utility, would you prefer to have a claim or a shoebox full of bullion?
Would you pay the same for the two?
The way I see it, as long as the comex ratio is so leveraged and paper sets the price, pricing is imbalanced and that physical is cheap.
Here is why… Realestate, Fine art and guns.
Try and sell a second claim to fine art or real estate and you go to jail. Try and defend your home with a photo of a gun and you get robbed.
While paper gold and bullion are priced the same, they are not.
HOLTER:
Is gold becoming illegal ?
http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31089
“With governments in Europe cutting off the ability to buy gold, which is already declining in demand, mixed with the rising dollar, everything warns that the final low for gold may be on the horizon.”
Gabriel:
There is no indication at all that any government in Europe is cutting off the ability to buy gold. Martin Armstrong made that up. But it is true that demand drys up at major bottoms just as it is high at every top.
Bob:
He seems to focus a lot on Spain and Madrid.
“My personal observation in Spain was that retail bullion coins were no longer sold in the banks or stores, which contrasted with what I observed in Italy. We also see problems in selling gold in France. ”
Maybe that’s why Spain is #1 for BitGold on Alexa … :).
Pretty hard to refute what you saw with your own eyes, Gabriel!
eBay works in Europe and like selling books through Amazon, it’s all done on line. I have bought dozens of Spanish gold coins through a dealer in Spain. He certainly is selling gold coins.
Al
Gabriel never stated that he saw it with HIS ”…own eyes…”; he was stating what *Armstrong* saw with HIS [i.e., Armstrong] ”…own eyes…”.
Some really great points, Gabriel!
Big Al and Cory,
Thanks for having Avi Gilburt on the show!
Agreed. This was a good show and I particularly enjoyed the diverse lineup: Avi Gilburt, Keith Neumeyer, Michael Belkin, Bill Holter, Brent Cook, Dan Kurz, and Jayant Bhandari. Good thoughts to consider.
Thanks Al & Cory for all the work you do putting the weekend shows together!
A pleasure, Shad!
A pleasure, Mr Alan!
Birth-Death-ing Your Way To Prosperity
June 5, 2015, 10:54 am
Comments: 68
As expected, the statistical guesswork of the BLS magically added 200M+ “jobs” in May. This has spiked interest rates and crushed the yen, which is now trading at levels not seen since 2002. What does this mean for the short-term future of the metals?
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6897/birth-death-ing-your-way-prosperity
Regarding Segment 8 with Belkin:
“Somebody is keeping the indexes up through futures buying.”
He goes on to mention this is being done by BoJ, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Israel, and our own Fed (in secret).
My question is, if the central banks have that much power to prop up the markets, then what happened in October 2014?
Was that pullback ‘allowed’ or ‘engineered’ by the central banks or were they furiously buying futures and the market wouldn’t comply until Bullard got in front of a camera?
My feeling is that Yellen wants to start QE4, but can’t do it with stocks at all time highs. I believe we are due for another October 2014-ish pullback so the Fed can step in with QE4.
Not sure that I agree with starting Q4
Personally, I doubt QE ever ended.
All depends on how you define it!
Seg1 Crimex
K.N. why not collect all the wealthy silver bugs like Sprott, Turk, Rule and buy a massive amount of silver and demand delivery! Bust the Crimex take it to the next level as letters of wrongful doing have done nothing all these years.
Paper game will go on until the physical deliver shuts down the game, go for it!
Comex has and will settle any perceived default with paper Fed fiat.
They are a paper exchange dictating global prices for their masters.
If any such “wealthy”entities threatens this profitable charade the Gods at Comex will institute new rules to protect themselves and their member clients(Re: Silver Rule #7-Hunt Bros.).
Great point original.
That will make for an interesting editorial when we are at the Sprott Conference next month.
Original JJ – Others have proposed that before, and think it is a very valid strategy.
I’d actually love to see about 20-40 big-time silver players do an orchestrated Silver buy demanding delivery to bust the COMEX in its chops. The about a month later, do it a second time just in case they have a contingency plan for something like that.
2 big silver buys like that, demanding delivery, would definitely move the paper versus physical game to the next level. Bring it!!
Seg 4
Bill where was the derivative explosion in 2008/9 when the US financial system came very close to shutting down?
During the financial crisis gold fell from $1033 to $681, safe haven? While the US$ rose from 71-89
Lets say Monday we wake up and gold is $5000 bid no offers, then what? the guy holding physical gold will do what, use it how, convert into cash?
There was a derivative explosion in 2008/09 This is why the government had to bail out AIG. This is why the Federal Reserve loaned out $16 Trillion to major banks throughout the world.
I would convert it to cash just long enough to get into another cheaper asset. Even the Dow would suddenly look VERY good as it would have plunged from 15 ounces of gold to about 3.6 ounces. You name it, everything would be down 80% versus gold —just like 2011 compared to 2000. LOL
No bid is more probable than no offer, for goodnwss@ sake.
With regard to silver speculation and stuff on the COMEX, nobody was complaining when seemingly endless numbers of poorly funded or unfunded speculators (I would call them naked longs) were piling into the market to take silver up to $49 and gold to $1900. Without the paper market, such prices would never have been reached, so it cuts both ways. Same for the bubble in 1980: silver would never have gone to $50 and gold to $850.
It’s a paper market and there is cash settlement so get used to it. Most of the long speculators are probably unfunded so every time there is a little downmove they are margin called out of their positions. It’s like a casino both on the long and short side.
This means that in 1980 and 2011 the gold and silver prices went way above fair value.
Basically the speculative longs are the punters in the casino and the commercials are the hose. Who usually wins?
Basically the speculative longs are the punters in the casino and the commercials are the house. Who usually wins in that game?
Silverbug, I think everything you wrote is right on—-when the narrative and sentiment turns again (and it will), we’ll see the paper market assist in driving the PMs higher again. Then the talking heads can complain about how the speculators are controlling the markets and something should be done about controlling their actions.
Very good points Silverbug Dave.
Good points Silverbug –
The casino is now in the process of getting ready to implode, explode,torn down,eradicated, nuked, smashed.etc etc….it must be done or other countries cannot and will not get out of the rule of the almighty dollar – if you are China or Russina or India or pick a country – the western financial system is a cancer that must be lasered out of the global body…foreign soverigns figured this out YEARS AGO..but it takes time to chop down the massive “beanstalk” engulfing the world –
“beanstalk” equals the western financial system tied to worthless fiat “money”
Yes,and gold is capped so it does not reflect poorly upon,or God forbid,usurp the peetrol dollar Fed fiat unit.
The global monetary silver standard was assassinated for British fiat rule and gold is controlled for US Fed fiat.
Again,the surplus of gleeful daytraders feeding the Fed’s global nightmare legacy is pathetically evident herein.
Also, Keith Neumeyer ‘s point about the mined ratio of silver to gold being 10:1 while the gold:silver ratio is 75:1 is not relevant.
There is far less platinum mined than gold but the platinum:gold ratio is near to 1:1
Furermore there is far less rhodium mined than platinum yet the rhodium:platinum ratio is about 1:1
Rh is $1005, Pt is $095 and gold is $1172.30.
2013/14 Production Rh 24 tonnes, Pt 160 tonnes, gold 2800 tonnes.
Silver about 25,000 tonnes.
All have different applications so ratios not relevant.
Pt is $1095
Not sure that is how he meant it, Dave.
Brent Crook is back, babbling the same babble and probably getting ready to run another round of pump & dump stocks past the suckers who frequent this site.
Hey Brent, how’s Synodon doing? Down A LOT since you were pumping it at 25 cents.
How much did you make pumping that stock, Mr. Crook?
This guy deserves to be investigated by the SEC.
I’m sure he’s a really nice guy though, the list is very long from these so called goldbug hero’s leading investors down the wrong path again and again.
Nice guys don’t pump stocks while they are dumping them.
Another piece of crap is that Bo Plony weirdo. Him and his numerology and bible references make me bust a gut laughing… what a snake oil salesman. Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s some loopy evangelical christian.
Gary Savage also is a complete loser. I laugh every time when talks about most people not being emotionally stable enough to ride out the markets. He’s probably the most emotional trader/newsletter writer out there. That dumb hick is a joke.
Sorry Joe,I can’t agree with you and I listen pretty closely!
Brent nor anyone on his site is “leading anyone down a garden path” Mr Polny you might notice is no longer included in our line up.
Al, WHAT happened to “WE MUST HEAR FROM ALL PARTIES”……. 🙂
Mr Polny I am referring …… 🙂
I think you should get ALAN GREENSPAN on as a guest…….Along with FISCHER…., round robin could include Jim Willie , Polny, and Gerold Celliti……….. THE BOOT
I can tell you fire sure that is not how Brent works. Sorry!
Well, I don’t know much about Mr. Brent, but he chose to no show at the Sprott conference last July. I am shocked they are having him back again this summer. I am not big on people that don’t keep their commitments. He kept about 50 of us waiting for his presentation one afternoon…………..
I ran a panel, had a keynote speech and workshop at the SprottGlobal conference in Vancouver last year. I am doing the same this year.
Regards Synodon, or any other company in my letter. I am not paid by them and tell my subscribers what I am doing and why with shares I buy and sell. We sold SYD last year for a small gain. The reason for the sell was laid out in the letter. Sometimes things don’t work out as one expects.
It is your responsibility to follow developments of companies you buy if you do not subscribe to my (or anyone’s) letter.
Also,if talking about a stock you feel has potential and you bought is “pumping” then I suggest you avoid all financial publications and blogs—stick to throwing darts in the dark.
Seg 7
I guess Chris Temple will be adding Avi to his list of nuts calling for much lower gold, lol
Simple chart even complete idiots can read suggested a short position in gold May 19th after a $50 pop $1180-$1230
Avi is correct nobody knows how deep or how long the sell off will be and there is no suggestion it will be a V bottom, just more goldbug HOPE
Nice to see Avi follows Marty’s advice:
Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate our analysis is at fault – not the market.
I don’t agree that the market is always right. It’s just that we have to trade the market price.
The market isn’t rational and therefore you can have a 1:1 Dow:gold ratio in 1980 and a 43:1 Dow:Gold ratio is 1999. Makes no sense; no way is it right or rational but that’s what you have to trade.
I agree about the market. Today’s market is j ust very d different from yesterday’s!
The market is wrong frequently or you will never have a great value buy or on overbid asset!
JJ,
One of the very things I like about Avi Gilburt is the fact that he admits when he is wrong. I follow a lot of his free postings regarding the Elliott Wave count on the SP500 and RUSSELL. He just admitted earlier this week that he “did not see” this latest drop coming and he apologized for it. What a breath of fresh air! And “yes”, he does keep an open mind about what may or may not happen.
agreed. Nobody calls em’ all correct anyway, but part of being nimble is knowing when to fold em’ and change course if new data presents itself.
When will THE bottom be in for gold?
Lets try this suggestion, when all the goldbug Hero’s stop posting their opinions on the web, when they shut down their subscription services, and are never heard from again, until confirmation the gold bull has return on the weekly chart, then they will be all pumping to da moon and fleece the goldbugs once again suggesting trees do grow to da moon, rince, repeat, its been going on forever!
Absolutely, jj.
When KWN, silverdoctors and Turd Ferguson are all off the air.
That’s like saying that CNBC etc would be off the air at stock bottoms.
The so-called permabulls that have made so many small investors so angry are now priced-in and have been for awhile. That’s all that matters where their influence is concerned.
Agreed. I don’t think their websites will or necessarily need to go off the air at the bottom, because, what we are waiting for is the market to signal that the bottom is in. Matthew that was a good analogy with comparing that silly comment with CNBC going off the air at a bottom in the conventional stock markets.
We are waiting for technical validation in the markets that the bottom is and just discussed this yesterday in Gary’s blog, and this has absolutely 0 to do with what newsletter writers say about anything good or bad.
On June 5, 2015 at 11:04 am,
Shad says:
The bottom will be in when Gold closes above and takes out $1382 to the upside.
The first minor resistance at $1239 didn’t even get tested on the last weak attempt by Gold to rise, but clearly $1308-1309 is the first resistance gate to cross. Next is $1347. The primary target though to show Gold is finally in a confirmed uptrend is $1382.
Until that happens everyone is still just speculating. As for a bottom, I’ve been fairly consistent that I think $1044.70 and $993.20 are the 2 low bottom support targets; but that really, nobody can rule out that the $1130 Nov 2014 lows were the major bottom, since it still hasn’t been tested yet.
The Gold market hasn’t been back to test $1130 yet, and hasn’t broken 1382 to the upside yet. We’re in trading range limbo until either $1130 or $1382 gets tested.
On June 5, 2015 at 11:26 am,
Shad says:
I will say Gold at $1169 is far closer the $1130 level than $1382, and it is much more probable we’ll be testing the lows this summer.
Each asset class has their buffoons, cultists, conspiracy-theorists, zealots and perma-bulls. If they’re in one camp, they can be found in the other.
Agreed Mark Alan. People work so hard to bash anyone in a sector that they just form their own new cult of haters, and end up becoming what they hate.
As Gary has said many times, “people are happy to pay to read what they want to hear.”
And, that is so sad!
I agree totally..
Palladium mine production is around 200 tonnes per year, about 1.25 times platinum. A bit more than platinum. Palladium is a bit cheaper than platinum, Pt:Pd price ratio = 1.46. Pt $1095/oz and Pd $750/oz.
Perhaps that is not surprising because platinum and palladium have similar applications. As for the rest, they don’t so the ratios don’t have to make sense.
The 16:1 ratio for gold:silver worked when gold and silver were money. Now they are not. Silver is an industrial commodity and is almost entirely demonetized. Gold is still kind of money in a sort of way. Under this regime the Au:Ag ratio is 75:1.
Governments have completely failed at demonetizing gold and silver even though they’ve succeeded (so far) in preventing its use as a currency.
Their own Karl Marx put it well: “The truth of the proposition that, ‘although gold and silver are not by nature money, money is by nature gold and silver,” is shown by the fitness of the physical properties of these metals for the functions of money.”
Re: segment 1
I don’t think writing to Mr. Mossad will do any good.
You gotta try, Eddie!
I agree Ebolan, but at least like that K.N. stuck his neck out publicly and called them out on it. If about 30-50 other mining CEOs would grow a pair and do the same thing, then at least is may pick up some main stream media attention.
I like Orignal JJs idea up above about having a number large Silver buyers all go in together for a massive Silver buy and demand physical delivery. Then, I would wait a month, a hit them again with another major silver buy and demand delivery.
This would start shaking things up. As for Keith Neumeyer – at least he took action. That is more than we can ever say for most, including the people that scoff at him.
Shad, they would probably be accused by the SEC of manipulating the market and be charged criminally.
How could people be accused by the SEC for manipulating the market if they are asking the CFTC to address market manipulation in the first place?
My point was that if enough mining CEO called out the paper market rigging by addressing something formally and bringing awareness and attention to the matter it would at least get things going the right direction.
If people execute a large order at one time and ask for delivery, then I am not sure how that would be against the law. It is when people are going in and continually buying (ie Hunt Brothers) to force the market price up that it would become a problem. I’m saying just a large purchase with the request for delivery. Surely that is why the market is there to function for just this reason.
Re: Segment 4
“You will go to bed Friday night and wake up Monday morning….”
Dang, I wish I could get that much sleep. I would settle on waking up Saturday morning instead of waking up late Friday night…and not being able to get back to sleep.
Me too, Eddie!
I wish I could average more than the 4 hrs of sleep I get per night, but as discussed in the past, using self-hypnosis and subconscious suggestion you can put the body in a state for much more restful sleep, and get the the rejuvenating R.E.M. sleep much quicker without all the tossing and turning.
Did you ever try getting guided CDS or use the Hemi-Sync or Holisync bin-aural frequencies to tap into the Delta patterns?
Good question. Can you give me that info and links again? I can’t find them. If you do I will try to download the frequencies tonight. Thank you.
I don’t have a link but if you search for binaural frequencies, or the companies Hemi-sync or Holisync companies they should have CDs for sale or for download. Also, you can check Ebay for used copies (the frequencies didn’t get old or anything).
Many download sites may have brain wave entrainment, or Delta Waves, or binaural frequencies.
May you recharge your batteries and rejuvinate!
For that to work you need stereo head phones as I understand it. Can you recommend a pair? Also, could you just use an ear phone in each ear instead. Kind of hard for me to fall asleep and stay asleep with headphones on.
Yes, I have a very nice pair of Sony and Pioneer headphones that are big and comfy, so that I can fall asleep with headphones if necessary. Another strategy is to use the binaural soundwave recordings with only if you are restless or can’t sleep, and when you feel yourself getting tired and relaxed take them off and go through your own internal process to suggest to your subconscious mind to get restful sleep.
If you do the guided self-hypnosis (there are tons on youtube for example), then just find someone’s voice that you can deal with and let it get you into a relaxed state on any speakers you wish (those don’t have to be on headphones….just the holisync and hemisync).
I got this http://shop.hemi-sync.com/products/380-Seaside-Slumber-Album/#.VXT_WF1VK1E
I have a Sansa Clip mp3 player (about an inch by an inch and a half) with some ear phones I can use so I can “wear” this to bed.
Hopefully this works.
Also found this on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CreU9g302yU
I turned it into an mp3.
What do you think of theta waves and sleep?
Theta waves and Alpha-Theta waves are good for meditation, creativity, and form a quiet stimulation of the mind away from the active intensity of the normal Beta waves. The Delta waves are what put the mind into a state of deep rest though.
Shad, have you ever created your own binaural beats? Have you seen this?
http://binauralbrains.com/how-to-make-free-binaural-beats-1/
If Brent Cook still believes in that global warming non-sense he should watch this
Brent is probably being paid off to push the nonsense of human caused global warming. He’ll do anything for a buck.
WOW Silver bug-
We are definitely not on the same page..although I do respect your intellect. But, with all due respect did you fall asleep during your history lessons…the world is a dynamic and fast changing place..the FASTEST it is been in the history or recorded mankind machinations – you are WRONG my friend – with this ponzi scheme quits…..YOU my friend will be firmly on the outside looking in…got GOLD, SILVEr, FOOD, WATER and enough guts to handle a very hostile and aggressive masses…that is IT in a nutshell….end of story.
I don’t believe that he is,Joe!
Eb, thanks for that link. It was very instructive and I learned a lot.
You’re welcome, Doc. In my opinion this whole thing has nothing to do with science and everything to do with controlling our lives and of course taking more of our money from us in the form of carbon and other taxes.
Already in Colliefornia (as Ahnode Schwarzennegger calls it) they have cap and trade and it’s just begun. Every year the carbon tax will increase and make energy more expensive and Colliefornia already has among the highest energy prices in the country. And the corrupt politicians use this new loot to reward their cronies and punish their enemies.
I guess that makes me a heretic and a climate criminal in the eyes of our rulers.
Good charts and potential paths we can take Gary. I see the September crash in much the same light, and think it has been exacerbated by the prolonged artificial propping up of the markets without letting them correct naturally. Now the consequences of this policy are going to hurt a bunch of people.
I am waiting to see how things go this summer to see if stocks have a little further to climb. If so I’ll be considering at least a small position in SPXS and TZA to short the markets around Aug/Sept (depending on how things play out).
So why didn’t Abbi Gibert mention his $25000 gold target? Talk about being Abbi Gilbert bullish….
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-great-bull-market-gold-25000-2015-06-04
Gotta consider his timeframe, Eddie
OMG, when are these insane targets going to end!
No other sector do we have proclaimed experts suggesting such insane % runs, where is an article of oil going to $1260 at two thousand % higher from here as that’s what $25ooo gold is, how about natgas at $52 or anything else 2000% higher
Avi you are not doing the sector any credit with such silly predictions.
OMG I’ve seen it all and its all nuts in the gold sector, Avi has another hero worshiper with this call.
And what kind of world has $25000 gold not a world any of us will enjoy I can’t even say I hope he is wrong because the suggestion is nuts, anyone can draw a line on a chart to MARS!!!!
I would agree. $25000 seems a bit over the top. Maybe $5000 or $10,000 on a long shot but $25000 from an initial start of $250 seems unrealistic.
He said $25k in 50 years!!!. That’s only a 21 fold increase. If the last 50 years had only seen a 21 fold increase, gold would be just $735 today. At the 2011 top, gold was up about 55 fold in just 40 years. So a spike to 66,000 in the next 50 years would hardly be a big deal.
Until this ponzi scheme financial system is abandoned, that’s the math.
Ditto.
+1
In 50 years I’ll be dead.
Heck, maybe in ten the way I’m going.
Hang in there, little buddy. But based on that picture I think you should see a doctor. Hope you don’t have that Obammiecare.
Mr. Helm
Hang tough, Eddie…eve if you got zips in the wire….
In fact, if you look at the Gold Bugs Index HUI, -1.87% chart linked at the bottom of this column, you will see that our projections are calling for an almost tenfold increase in this index over the next decade or so, which will likely increase to a fifty-fold increase in the index over the next 20 or so years, and well beyond that in 50 years. Ultimately, we see the HUI over 15,000.
Hilarious, NOBODY can predict with any great degree the direction of gold….NUTS!
Bill, I have to agree. If anyone could predict any market with any degree of regularity they would not need to sell investment advice. They could take their own and make a fortune.
A finance prof I took a class from in college did his PHD work in penny stock analysis. Figured with the work he did he would either have a trading system that would make him rich or if not he would teach. Of course he wound up teaching.
Ebolan
Analysts are a dime a dozen and many of them can be accurate. But there is a WORLD of difference between an analyst and a trader who ACTS on what they see. Many analysts won’t step into the trade because of their fear of being wrong, so they stay out of the trade and when it moves in the direction they had anticipated, they claim: “See! I was right!” But they were wrong in not taking the trade. Maybe your professor was one of those who couldn’t stand the thought of him/her self being wrong.
That sort of thing is abundant in the industry.
good one…….Ebolan……….educated dummies………….
That’s was for Ebolans marketgoon link.
This is more accurate. Gold WILL see 400 before 25000 LOL
As long as the gold pumpers PM equity pumpers are out there there’s no hope for gold. There’s an audio. Right as rain…Same poop different day…
http://www.avaresearch.com/articles/1754/Mike-Rivera-Exposed-As-Con-Man-Giggles-In-Panic-And-Hangs-Up.html
Many of these market tiimers are all over the map with their pedictions. That way, no matter what happens they can clalim to have seen it coming.
So Stathis is another Dent?
OMG Did Dent predict anything?!
Call Stathis and put your $100k on the table and go head to head.
Ond up on that Al have on the show. I’ll line it up and I’ll call everyone out that’s full of crap. Just trying to sZvd the inocent.
Let me know Mathew? I’ll line it up.
Bill, a simple yes or no would be nice. Only a complete fool would believe that $400 gold is more likely than $25,000 in 50 years.
I know Stathis thinks gold is going lower (who doesn’t 😮 ), but did he call for $400 or is that brilliant Bill’s number?
Mathew who cares about 50 years? We will all be dead. Maybe the whole race aweigh the way we are going with planet earth.
We are talking a year or 2. Although I’m not shorting that target it is possible. We are still in deflation mode on many fronts and the dollar looks poised to go higher.
The article that started this talk about $25k was talking about 50 years from now. I’m just sticking to the facts. Your comment didn’t indicate that you had changed the time frame to a year or two.
The last time the dollar traded around 100 was back in 2003. Gold was less than 400 and silver was less than 5. So two things are obvious. 1.) There has been a lot of price inflation (to go with the huge amount money supply inflation); and 2.) The USDX is a worthless measure of purchasing power in the real world.
I’d give my eye teeth for an interest rate hike like the 80s. As I said a year ago it’s not in the cards. Inflation is low and Volcker is not around. The economy will muddle for sometime.
Mathew.
CNBC will never shutdown as its part of the Jewish Wall Street cabal. As for the gold buggies yes they can and will die for a verity of reasons..
AND NO $400 is not my number, actually will be shocked if it makes it there..$800 maybe???
Michael Belkin clearly understands what he is looking at. Beneath the surface many conventional stocks are already in a bear market. Beneath the surface many gold stocks are already in a bull market.
I’m using pullbacks for adding to my spec core positions.
I think the scaredy cat bears are jumping the gun with their calls for a big drop.
On the following chart you can see that gold fell to some Schiff fork support and bounced. More support comes in around the 1150 area.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p46939917652&a=411098748&listNum=1
Matthew, I see no big drop as yet for gold with the technicals I watch. In fact, the odds tell me that if we drop toward the lows, we may get down to about $1100 and no lower. We should get a move up next week or soon after and then we’ll have to see what the next cycle looks like.
I agree Doc. I knew you weren’t one of the many calling for a plunge.
I want $1,041 – $1,044!
I’d settle for that as a potential bottom Mark Alan. I’ve had the $1044.70 as my first major support below 1130 for a while, but am getting bored with this trading range. It looks like the move down has started when 1178 broke this last week. I expect it to grind down for June/July and maybe early August, and then come back up in the fall Sept/Oct.
Daily gold price is saying not much vigour in the downside. Bearish sentiment tied up struggling with the tape:
Interesting chart Fran6 (simultaneous graph of gold price and volatility)
Good chart FranSix. I agree there isn’t much vigour in the downside, but we’ve commented that it will be a “slow grind” down into summer June/July/Aug and not a big drop. Matthew is correct in his Schiff Fork chart above that there is some support at 1150 where we may get a little bounce, but I doubt it will hold, and am in the camp that 1130 will fall and we head lower towards $1044.70.
That chart is why I don not think gold will ever close below US$ 1160-ish. Maybe on a weekly, though, as there could be a quick dip over a 1-3 day period to test 1130.
Until bears can take out $1130 with a weekly close its the same song we hear every time golds rolls off a top.
Gary read your post at your site smartmoneytracker, you sound just like Armstrong, interesting!
Maybe he is reading Armstrong and adjusting his newsletter? 🙂
Or, maybe Armstrong is reading Gary’s site?
Gresham’s Law: No More Retail Gold In Europe ?
Gresham’s law is an economic principle that states: “When a government overvalues one type of money and undervalues another, the undervalued money will leave the country or disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money will flood into circulation.”
https://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/2015/06/05/no-gold-in-europe.html
Good post Gabriel. Jeff was referencing Martin Armstrong’s comments throughout his article, as well as the issues of what countries actual gold reserves are and the TX repatriating it’s gold that we had discussed on this blog a lot earlier this week.
Here is an interesting snippet from the end of Jeff’s article:
“The End Of The Monetary System As We Know It (TEOTMSAWKI) Is Here:
TEOTMSAWKI is here. At The Dollar Vigilante we’ve been writing about it constantly over the past five years. The massive fiat currency race to the bottom we’ve reported on has real world implications for everyday people. Now, in Europe, there is no gold to be purchased, at a time when mainstream media in the US has belittled the investment as something for the paranoid amid what they interpret as a rebounding economy but really is a broken economy being kept afloat my ultra low interest rates.” — Jeff Berwick
I do agree with Bob M. that people can still buy gold on Ebay anywhere, and that people in Spain are still sellers of gold, but I thought the article was provocative.
Here’s a good interview with Bob Hoye:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/06/european-bonds-go-for-scarey-ride/
Thanks for posting the interview Matthew.
China was responsible for the artificial price of commodities and accumulated them at a rate out of all proportion to consumption. Eventually as we have seen they could no longer support the prices and when the day of reckoning came prices have fallen. China is in retraction and that is why we are seeing deflation. The west is in denial but artificial intelligence is pointing to who will be the victors, for me I see a resurgence in North American dominance. DT
Just for your information, artificial intelligence attracts more attention in China. Parents spend a lot of money to send kids to learn robotics. I don’t see it here. Chinese students love technology , and science and engineering attract best students. In North America, it is finance which gets the best. I know it since my sister is involved in a robotic school where parents send their kids to learn after school.
The amount of money Chinese parents spend on their kids’ education is unimaginable in the west
That’s good, but innovation and creativity always come from societies where children are allowed to enjoy their youth and not by being bused or driven to the next after hours math class or ballet recital.
Not sure whether you will put hockey parents in the same category. Training for kids on dancing lesson are more how overseas Chinese parents trying to make their girls more prepared to find a better husband. I am sure it has nothing to do with creativity. Otherwise you will see a lot of boys there too. Actually innovation comes with demand and reward for it. Little to do with children’s early life. Studying while the kids are little can train him to be a better worker in the future and may get him a better job. If you talk about easy childhood, while I was little we did nothing but play. I don’t see our generation is particularly innovative. A lot of them have trouble to keep job since they don’t have the knowledge for modern economy. I heard that many elite schools in US push the kids hard while government let’s the average schools to decay.
The bankruptcy phase continues.
http://sangold.mediaroom.com/2015-06-01-San-Gold-Provides-Notice-of-Default
This is a good thing. It makes no sense to waste investors’ money.
Gold bulls are too early. I will publish a public article on Tuesday outlining what is coming at the 8 year cycle low so traders can see the importance of getting to the sidelines now.
Gary, I would be interested in seeing your article on Tuesday so if it’s public we will be able to access it from Al’s site. DT
I will post a link here.
Thanks, DT
DITTO
Midway gold should be next on the chopping block.
For everyone interested in bankruptcies and defaulted gold miners, you might try your analytical skillz on GBN.V.
GBN.V is a ‘black box’ gold producer with no reserves, no cash flow, an accumulated deficit, and balance sheet discrepancies. They have not raised capital in years, and haven’t borrowed a penny, but they never go bankrupt.
What is evident from sat photos is that development & production continues apace, despite the fact that they claim that they are shut down. Where does all the money come from if it’s not out of production, and all costs are prepaid? How do liabilities accrue with no accounts receivable? (Note 1 in the recent financials states that financial assets can be carried in the liabilities column)
I am satisfied that my research is complete on this black-box producer. Be sure to do your due diligence on this company, as they take measures to defeat the purpose of investing. All available information has been posted here. Shares trading for 0.005 cents CAD with no bid:
Market Commentary (weekly recap) – June 7, 2015 Shad
We are ending a 7 year cyclical bear market in commodities within a 30-50 year secular bull in commodities. If you have the foresight of a longer time horizon, and an understanding of the ensuing results of the global central banks money printing longer term, then it is common sense that the commodities graph will most assuredly be pointed up and to the right. This ascent in commodities over the next 7 years will be a series of ups and downs – not a straight up trajectory.
Cycles are not perfect and it may turn out to not be exactly 7 years for the CRB to bottom, and the bear market in Gold may stretch on for more than 4 years. Nobody really knows exactly when the reversal will be, but the recent gyrations in 2015 in the currency markets and bond markets and trepidation in stock market should be telling he who has the eyes to see and the ears to hear, that something is building and is going to break out in the next few months on a global scale.
When the general stock indexes are the safety play, and bonds are in trouble, the whole market is in trouble and has a mean reversion in the not too distant future. This is an artificially created problem due to the zero interest rate policy from Fed, financial institutions & corporation borrowing virtually for free to juice the markets, and the bond market trying to tell the Fed rates must be raised.
The 30 year Bond party is coming to a close, and the bubble is already in the process of popping right before our very eyes. It will be curious to see if there is one last reversal, where long term rates come back down near 2% for one final push. There will likely be a blow-off top in the US equities and Chinese equities, and Canadian real estate market, and a last hoorah in bio-tech and the high flying social media stocks…..but their days are numbered.
Money will be leaving those sectors and need a place to go, and commodities have historically done well when money leaves the stock markets and inflation starts to rear it’s head. With market jitters over Fed rate hikes or the bond market forcing interest rate increases, then at present it is just fears of mild inflation stepping out of the shadows of deflation and stagflation.
I personally think once we get the washout in commodities for the CRB 7 year lows, that some money will come back into the commodity sector (PMs, base metals, Uranium, Oil, specialty metals, fertilizers, food & Agriculture) but this will likely be in late July or August. I’d rather be a little early to the party later this year, and if it takes until 2016 to really get going then who cares?
Some still question the rise of the commodity sector over the next decade, noting the slowdown in China and many world economies. There is innovation, product and process re-engineering, and a bigger effort in the recycling of components, so technology is making strides to reduce consumption. However, “stuff” still needs to be pulled out of the ground to make everything in the modern world.
The phone or computers we are using to have this conversation, the planes, trains, and automobiles you use to get to our respective homes and offices, the tools you use, the satellites that bounce the signal, the stores that then sell customers their smart phones, and the energy that powers all of this is dug out of the ground and fueled by commodities. As the rest of the world follows suit, they’ll need commodities and energy.
__________________________
There was an interesting quote from the article: “Three Australian Miners Richard Karn Believes Are Positioned for Success”
“When institutional capital eventually comes back to the resource sector, especially to the specialty metal sector, because it is scared, money will flow first to what has been proven to work, that means companies that are funded and in or nearing production now, which will be seen to be a tremendous advantage. Then, because mining costs will have declined so far and cost curves will have been re-based, improving especially private equity’s return on investment, merger and acquisition activity will accelerate.”
“But private equity firms know the longer they wait, the more the resource sector will be starved for capital and the cheaper the deals will become. In other words, because they cannot be sure the bottom in commodity prices is in, they will wait for slam-dunks.”
____________________________________
I anticipate that just as many of us are waiting to go bottom fishing in July/August, that so are many of the larger Majors and Mid-tiers, so the one thing I’ll be watching for is more mergers and takeovers for June/July/August. So while the share price in many miners will pullback, if you have at least some position in some takeover targets, you still may be rewarded over the next few months as the industry consolidates……that is part of what makes the bankruptcy phase such an interesting time of opportunity.
My investing outlook –
I normally don’t hold equities for long periods, but this will be an exception period where quality names are so trashed right now, that I’ll be taking longer term positions to hold for years over the next 3-6 months.
Again, I’m not a gold pumper, or fanatic, but likewise refuse to ignore it’s importance as a store of value for most of recorded history. It also would be unwise for anyone to ignore just how beat up the mining sector is at present, and if it get’s it’s nose bloodied in one last washout over this summer, then that is the time to enter at least some of your positions.
Over the next few months I’ll be positioning for a healthy interest in select Silver and Gold miners, Streaming companies, and ETFs. My biggest positions are currently building in Uranium, Palladium, Zinc, Copper, Tin, Fertilizers, and Lithium. As for Oil, I’ve gone to the sidelines until we see the expected pullback this summer I expect is coming and then I’ll be moving back into the sector once the dust settles.
Like most, I have a boring (but growing) retirement account tied up in Blue Chips, defensive Utilities and dividend paying stocks, financial companies, tech companies, healthcare, emerging markets, and some corporate bonds. However, for my trading account and for contrarian positioning, I like going where there is no love, (but still a bright future). I see that as being the commodity and energy sectors moving into the fall of 2015 and into 2016.
Good luck to all in their investing – Shad
Shad, nice thoughts. From a technical basis, I agree with a lot of what you said.
Thanks Doc. I agree with most of your thoughts on a daily basis as well, and always appreciate any insights you share. We are coming into a period where there could be some weakness in the commodities marketplace, but I have built my watch-lists, have some dry powder to deploy. There are many solid companies that are still very undervalued that may go further on sale, and there are some that will be good longer term positions.
Great post Shad. Good luck in your investment .
Thanks Gabriel. Right back at ya!
Shad you get an R.O. from me and that means right on. It’s not only the juniors that will get taken out but I expect to see at least one big major gold producer lose to a foreign upstart. The majors can get pretty smug until an adversary comes knocking for them.
Thanks for R.O. DT : – )
Yes, I agree that in addition to some of the Juniors, that even the Mid-Tiers and smug Majors will be up for grabs in Mergers, Takeovers, and JVs.
There has also been quite a bit of non-core project divestment lately from all the miners. Some of the land packages or resource projects have sold for more than they purchased them for originally, because the companies have further defined the resources (those were value transactions for both parties involved).
Other properties are being traded to opportunist companies at firesale prices, where the sellers are trimming the fat, or getting rid of assets they don’t have the money or time to pursue. These divestment sales are the excesses being worked off from the bull run from 1999-2011 (especially coming out of 2009). Companies grew for the sake of growth and paid far to much for properties, or had eyes bigger than than their stomachs. Other savvy operations are now scooping up those properties from cash-starved companies of all stripes in this current price environment.
Good stuff, Shad!
Al and group, very good weekend show! Very diverse.
Thanks Chartster. Yes, I agree it was a nice mix of info this weekend show.
May you have a prosperous week!
Why not a low in June and up after …
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html
Good question Gabriel. Indications are that we will have a rise to gold that heads up into the end of the year, so it may track the seasonal average toward the fall and winter. In the near to mid term we have unique macro-economic factors in this crazy global Currency War, a topping Bond market in US, strange bond markets overseas, and an equity market poised to muddle mildly higher and then crash in the fall. I’m watching the bond markets in many countries, long term interest rates, the USD, the Euro, the Yen, the Franc, the Loonie, and the US equities markets and how that correlates to the PM spot price. I’m looking at the miners as somewhat decoupled from spot price, but obviously will respond if Gold and Silver make a big move in either direction.
This thread from Thursday has good points and I tend to lean this direction:
_____________________________________________________________________
On June 4, 2015 at 1:20 pm,
gary says:
I pretty much agree with everything Doc sees. Stocks have little chance of getting a sustained move above 5132 and the market is possibly forming its 7 year cycle top.
Dollar goes sideways for weeks or months.
Oil probably not going to reach my target at $65 now.
Gold’s intermedaite cycle has topped and I wouldn’t look for a final intermedaite cycle low for another 8-12 weeks.
On June 4, 2015 at 2:15 pm,
RICHARD-DOC says:
Gary, you’re right on about the intermediate low for gold being reached in about 8-12 weeks—-that would put it right at my late July to early August low. That applies to the GDXJ and GDX as well.
On June 4, 2015 at 2:31 pm,
Shad says:
I’ve been expecting the lows in July & August in PMs for months now.
This 30 year monthly Silver chart from Dimitri Speck paints the seasonality picture:
http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15june/2015jun1ss1.png
On June 4, 2015 at 2:34 pm,
Shad says:
Of course seasonality is just a tendency and doesn’t take into account the unique technical setup and modern day economic madness. It does show the tendency for a June slide into July, but this year it may drag out a bit more because it will likely be the major bottom in commodities as the bond markets & US dollar do their final blow off tops. Have some dry powder ready to deploy for some summer fun.
On June 4, 2015 at 2:38 pm,
Shad says:
If you deploy your funds wisely this summer it could be a great entry point = summer loving.
Thanks again Shad… for taking the time to script your insights on the gold resource sector.
Hey mj12 – happy to share good ideas on this forum.
May you have a prosperous week!
Shad
AS per our prior discussion. There will be no commodities bull…
http://www.cknw.com/audio-vault/ June 6… 9am for an hr
Well, we’ll have to agree to disagree on commodities I guess. My thoughts are that the CRB bottom will be coming in soon, and we’ll see a multiple year increase in many of the things that make the modern world happen.
See this article and chart from April for further evidence:
http://shortsideoflong.com/2015/04/chart-of-the-day-commodity-crash/
The US dollar is going higher….
I think the US dollar may go higher in the short term (2-4 months) in a blow off top, but then I expect a multi-year bear to start in the USD towards the end of this year or going into 2016.
These talking heads are drinking the dollar higher kool-aid…..and again I agree with the chart at the end for the mid-term, but even if it takes 6 months, the dollar’s blow off top will be just that.
The dollar looks ‘phenomenal.’ Here’s why – trader
As always, Dan Kurz delivers the simple, straight story.