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Bill Holter – The Biggest Black Swan of them all …False Beliefs!

June 8, 2015

Global markets are changing drastically and showing volatilities like we saw back in late 2008.  I am not talking about stock markets, it is the debt and currency markets that are schizophrenic.  Oddly, even after all of the various Western “QE’s”, liquidity suddenly looks like it is drying up.  A great article as to why even the depth in the U.S. Treasury market has disappeared can be read here http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-04/here-reason-there-no-bond-market-liquidity

Various credit markets (important one’s!) have cracked over the last month and the myth of “zero percent interest” rates is in the process of being shattered.  I want to visit several topics in this piece, each one with the ability to break the derivatives chain which is exactly what we are headed for!
First and foremost, I believe we are about to find out central banks are not the omnipotent powers we’ve been led to believe.  You might as well say central banks have been perceived as all powerful, all knowing and the savior of any and all things “bad”.  The confidence in central bank’s abilities to fix anything and everything has grown to epic proportions and is now ingrained everywhere.  This thought process is so prevalent, we might as well say it is “imprinted” in the mass psyche from birth!
What we are seeing now are credit markets revolting against the risk of over levered sovereign treasuries and the fact of receiving zero compensation for the outsized risk.  Investors were led and cajoled by central banks into this corner of uncompensated risk.  It was easy.  Central banks led by the Fed only needed to announce their “plans” and investors stormed the credit markets in front running fashion.
A natural problem or two is arising.  Interest rates have been zeroed out for too long.  As the three Fed stooges finally admitted last week, zero interest rates are only justified by crisis.  Continued zero interest can mean only one of two things, we are still in a crisis behind the scenes or rising interest rates cannot be tolerated by markets with no margin left.  Both of these are the reality!  Before going any further, one thing needs to be made clear.  Central banks do not, better said CANNOT set interest rates.  Yes, they can push, pull, “suggest” and even buy sectors of the credit market to affect interest rates…
  …BUT ONLY in the short run.  My point is this, “the short run” is ending!  The central banks are running up against the “confidence clock” if you will.  The economic and financial lies told are now being revealed for what they are, WHOPPERS!  Think about it, do any numbers make sense?  Inflation?  GDP?  Employment?  Spending?  Housing?  Nothing reported now makes any sense at all and the lies have by necessity gotten so big, even little children know them not to be true.
The truly HUGE problems lay in the derivatives markets.  These are multiples of all markets …with very thin margins allowed for losses.  The volatility seen in currencies and debt over the last month have surely bankrupted many.  You see, it was the use of derivatives markets in the first place to “engineer” the bubbles …which are now bursting!  It is quite simple, the leverage afforded by derivatives, funded by credit and freely printed currency blew the bubbles to begin with.  Margin calls and forced closure of many of these derivatives will be the driving force of the coming collapse.  A broken derivatives chain will break everything beneath them including the currencies themselves.
The following is how Jim Sinclair has described derivatives:
“There is no such thing as a derivative that does not have an implied or defined interest rate characteristics. This is the chain that connects them all.
That makes this problems larger than one quadrillion dollars, the true level of the notional value derivatives outstanding before the BIS got into Whoopers, changed the computer program for measurement and reduced outstanding notional value of derivative outstanding to just $700 trillion in 2007. Here is the concept you must understand. Notional value of a derivative becomes real value of the derivative in the event of derivative bankruptcy. Derivative bankruptcy is defined as the breaking of the interlocking chain, interest rates. Now, you the reader, have a feel for how big this problem is. This unwelcome change in the interest rates market, the bond market, is truly the god of Death for the world’s financial system. When the smoke clears, gold will be the only true measure of value (a definition of money) with gold’s only mechanism for price discovery being the now growing and transparent physical market, the paper market will be in tatters as will be the paper exchanges and paper public companies that own these exchanges.”
In a nutshell, derivatives NEVER DIE, THEY ONLY GROW LARGER!
Before moving on, HUGE NEWS has broken today, the two CEO’s of Deutsche-Bank have stepped down! http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/06/07/deutsche-bank-ceos-step-down/28641471/   Deutsche-Bank is the largest holder of derivatives in the world, equaled ONLY by JP Morgan holding a “cool” $75 TRILLION!!!  Please view the following chart of the 10yr Bund, rates have exploded higher in a very short time span.   Huge losses have been incurred as ALL derivatives have interest rates assumptions within, no doubt your reason for the sudden resignations!
  courtesy, thekeystonespeculator

 Something has clearly BROKEN!

The next false belief is about debt itself.  I had the privilege the other day to personally listen to Greg Hunter go on a tirade about this.  He said “the biggest lie in the world is that debt is an asset and debt is money”.  He went on to say “NO IT’S NOT!  Debt is ALWAYS A LIABILITY!”  This is absolutely true, simple to understand, and 180 degrees counter to what the world believes …for now.  Let me explain this a little because it is “core to everything” (pun intended as you will see).

Debt is the foundation to everything.  “Currency” itself is created ONLY by the creation of debt.  Better said, currency is created by the increase in the amount of debt outstanding.  Debt stands as the foundation to all bank portfolios, all pension plans, the “value” of and “liquidity” of all real estate and equity markets.  “Debt” is THE foundation to what 99% of the world calls their “net worth”.
Before tying this part up for you, one other item needs mentioning.  This past week, Christine Lagarde of the IMF was out publicly “stating” (could be called demanding, asking or even PLEADING) the Fed should not raise interest rates until sometime next year.  (As a side note, can you remember when “raising rates” was first mentioned?  2010!  It has always been “next year” since then!).  The interesting thing is Janet Yellen was talking about raising rates at the same time Ms. Lagarde was speaking.
“Houston, we have a problem”!  Do you see the problem?  Switzerland broke the peg with the euro back in January …and forgot to give the IMF a heads up ahead of time!  This affected MANY banks including central banks themselves.  Did they give a heads up to the BIS?  Probably.  If so, was this the first sign of the “Western” IMF being isolated and in the dark?  I believe it was and I also believe Ms. Lagarde is terrified the Fed may actually try to raise rates one token time for whatever reason, to save face, for legacy or whatever.  (I am on the record many times before, I do not believe the markets will even function within 48 hours of an actual Fed rate hike).  One other question, can the Fed or other central banks really sit idly by as market rates run interest rates away from them to the upside?  A true dilemma!!!
Do you now see where I am going with this?  Market rates are now clearly going higher whether central banks like it or not …with or without them!  This part is important because it speaks to “confidence” or the lack of, it is however not the MOST important.  What is most important of all is this, EVERYTHING financial in the world is “discounted” against current, prevailing and EXPECTED interest rates.  The higher the rate and the higher the expectation of rates …the lower someone is willing to pay for a current asset!  Can you say “everyone out of the water”!
There is also another aspect.  Since “debt” underlies everything, as interest rates do rise, bond “prices” (values) drop.  What do you think lower debt values will do to bank portfolios, pension plans, insurance programs etc.?  You got it!  More and more “assets” become “unfunded”!  Obviously, starkly higher interest rates in a very short time also blow up ALL derivative’s interest rate assumptions.  We are talking about TRILLION’s being turned on their head!
To wrap this up, the world CANNOT in any way have higher interest rates but this is exactly what is happening.  Interest rates were forced to zero because that was the only rate where debt services could be made and asset prices “supported”.  Rates are reversing, many debts will not be paid nor able to be rolled over (at higher rather than lower rates), asset values of all sorts will plummet, financial structures and promises will be hollowed out …and even the currencies themselves will be questioned.
Once the belief that “debt is an asset …or even money” is broken, just as a spooked herd of cattle runs wild, so will investors.  They will seek the safety of “no one’s liability” because no one will be trusted.  This includes the central banks and sovereign treasuries themselves.  Gold, (no one’s liability) will not pay you interest and will not make promises that cannot be kept, it will simply “remain”.  Gold will remain as the world’s purest asset and purest money.  In a world where most all “assets” are finally understood to really be someone else’s liability, there is no telling what value might be placed on the purest form of asset/money?  Gold will be seen as the “anti liability of last resort”.  I guess better said, gold is the ultimate central bank for the asset side of the balance sheet!
Regards,  Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Discussion
110 Comments
    Jun 08, 2015 08:51 AM

    May fiat currencies everywhere go to Hell.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:10 PM

      They have never lasted I definitely Wayne. Kind of important to remember that!

    Jun 08, 2015 08:51 AM

    BIGGEST False beliefs as in INCORRECT Beliefs has been all the Doom and Gloom pumping from the goldbug experts these past 4 years, 4 years!!

    The BIGGEST financial meltdown the world has ever seen in 2008-09 when the US banking system came within hours of shutting down had gold falling 30%…FALLING….as the liquidity ran to the safe haven of the US$ not gold.

    Gold is ONLY 4% above its low of $1130 not testing $1300 , REALITY!

      Jun 08, 2015 08:04 AM

      JJ, don’t kid yourself. The false believe is definitely in the stock and bond markets. Compared to number of those investors, gold market is negligible regardless what goldbugs think. Goldbus are only < 0.001% of the investors. What they think is irrelavant to the market. When you analyse thing, try be objective not subjective. My advice.

        Dan
        Jun 08, 2015 08:08 AM

        lawrence…thank you!!

        Jun 08, 2015 08:27 AM

        How about FACTS Lawrence, that work for you?

        False belief in the US equity markets is based on the misconception the likes or yourself and Holter follow, those that understand capital flows have made a killing long US equities these past 4 years off golds highs and 6 years off 2009 lows and while Doom and Gloom is pumped!

        Goldbugs are .001% what they think is irrelevant, not sh!t as they are still long and wrong, thank you for pointing that out!

        Objective, subjective, no thanks how about cold hard facts, gold is $1173 and the HUI 159 PRICE REALITY is everything

          Jun 08, 2015 08:32 AM

          I am long equity so what you said does not apply to me. I am even long Chinese market. Don’t assume things. You are very emotional. It is worst characteristics a investor should have.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:37 AM

            OMG yup I’m so emotional I’ve made a living trading for 40 years, don’t assume things=right back at you!

            Jun 08, 2015 08:41 AM

            I am not assuming. You have shown your your emotion on every of your posts.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:40 PM

            Lawrence…ojj won’t like this…you have called it correctly and figured him out…

          Jun 08, 2015 08:42 AM

          Just like the article above, doom and gloom emotion its all the gold experts have, fear!

          Enjoy!

            Jun 08, 2015 08:48 AM

            I thought Marty is a gold expert too?

            Jun 08, 2015 08:58 AM

            You thought wrong, how emotional of you, he is a global capital flows expert NOT based on his opinion but daily global data which correctly suggested selling gold and buying the Dow in 2011, thanks for pointing out someone who actually got the past 4 year trend correct!

            Jun 08, 2015 08:11 AM

            Thinking Martin as gold expert is emotional. Hope you are not joking. I think he has made good calls in general in the last few years.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:39 AM

            I respect Martin a lot. I keep his targets in mind. I just take a slightly different route since I canot aford to trade, no time and lose too much money if I quit working.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:20 PM

            Only some of the gold “experts” original!

          Jun 08, 2015 08:19 PM

          Gotta remember the gold market is small and very specialized. Not to again repeat myself , but that is why we buy gold for entirely different reasons than those involved in the paper markets. We look at the total spectrum!

        Jun 08, 2015 08:14 PM

        Cannot say that the gold market is not negligible in comparison.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:18 AM

      Real GDP peaked around 1999 and the gloom and doomers who bought gold and forgot about are STILL smoking the delusional shortsighted paperbugs.
      The secular trends have not changed and the needed “adjustments” will continue to happen over time, not in a single event.

      BTW, gold finished 2008 UP almost 6%. So the dollar’s strength was fleeting and seen as a selling opportunity.

        Jun 08, 2015 08:38 PM

        I started buying gold in 1999 and continued into 2000 and 2001. The vast majority of what I bought I paid under $300 for. How am I worse off? You think $1180 gold is bad for investors, I think it’s wonderful for me. I don’t want to be standing under the Dow and $$ when they crash.

        And if MA is calling for $5000 gold, doesn’t that make him sort of a gold bug? I have never even whispered $5000. I’m thrilled at $1180.

          Jun 08, 2015 08:24 PM

          That is true Robert. You are thrilled with the current price of gold as I am with the current price of silver.

          Not helping the stocks though, my friend!

        Jun 08, 2015 08:59 PM

        If your comment was meant for me, I think you’ve misread my comment. I agree with you.

      GH
      Jun 08, 2015 08:40 AM

      An error of timing, for sure, regarding the doom and gloom, and when to be in what asset class.

      But if you think the doom and gloom is baseless, then maybe you could point out what part of Bill Holter’s reasoning is wrong.

      Great comment by Lawrence. You seem a bit obsessed with the ‘goldbugs’, however it is you define them.

      I enjoy your trading commentaries.

        Jun 08, 2015 08:46 AM

        How many have been destroyed these past 5 years listening to the goldbug experts GH, well?

        You people are like zombies, the walking dead, buy,buy,buy, its never sell, sell sell which has been correct for years, not a week a month but 4 years!!

        4 years is an error in timing, ROTFLMFAO

          Jun 08, 2015 08:57 AM

          A lot more people get destroyed by paperbug experts at every market top; are you as critical of those zombies?

          Since real GDP peaked, gold is STILL up more than 4x while the Dow hasn’t even doubled.

          Hey, there’s a forest lurking somewhere in them thar trees!

            Jun 08, 2015 08:28 AM

            “There is nothing wrong with LEHMAN! I repeat…THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH LEHMAN STOCK!”

            🙂

            Jun 08, 2015 08:51 AM

            And that Mark Alan is the reason everything should be traded off the chart not anyones Doom and Gloom BS or to Da Moon!

            Jun 08, 2015 08:28 PM

            Of course, I agree about the gold bugs Matthew.

            Who on our guest list would you define as an irrational gold bug?

          GH
          Jun 08, 2015 08:52 AM

          So I guess your definition of ‘goldbug’ is ‘gold permabull’? I’d agree with you on that.

          Yes, plenty of inexperienced people have been terribly damaged by fear-mongering gold-pushers who never speak about how to insure against the disaster that seems inevitable, without over-exposing oneself to risk.

          You go to another extreme, by lumping in anyone who recognizes the extreme instability of our financial system, and seeks to protect themselves, however ineptly, with ‘zombies’. You’d do better to give these people some guidance, bearing in mind that trading is a losing game for most people, especially novices.

          Matthew’s got it right–the real zombies are those who actually believe all the lies being pumped out of DC and Wall Street.

          Do you really not believe that there is a trainwreck coming in our economy that will harm vast numbers of people? If not, you might counter some of the arguments made by people like Holter.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:08 PM

            FANTASTIC post GS………..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            You have just singled out my whole point! Nobody with half a brain would dispute what is going on around the world with so many issues be it derivatives, leveraged debt the list is very long BUT it doesn’t mean a collapse, its doesn’t mean the Dow crashes, it doesn’t mean gold to da moon or WW3 or hyperinflation, US$ to dust

            DIAL down the fear big time and trade what is going on today in reality not hype and doom and gloom BS as its kept far too many investors in sectors that are going down making lower lows and lower highs = gold and out of fantastic gains in equity markets

            Jun 08, 2015 08:15 PM

            JJ can’t guide most people because most people don’t have any interest in trading.

            Bottom line: Those who accumulate gold over long periods end up better off. Those who hoard dollars over long periods of time end up worse off.

            JJ still hasn’t figured out that the dollar is a sorry measure of value in all but the short term.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:30 PM

            Oh look Matty has spoken so it must be all true! I just love how you tell everyone here what they are thinking, now that’s a BIG EGO if I’ve ever seen one.

            just like all those golds bugs who bought at $800 in 1980 it only took 27 years!!!! for your theory to prove correct

            Its what all you gold nuts hang onto EVENTUALLY you’ll be right, yippeeee!!!

            Fantastic approach…..can’t wait to see what Matty tells me I’m thinking now, so exciting

            GH
            Jun 08, 2015 08:46 PM

            Well, we agree a fair bit. But I would say that it very well *could* mean a dow crash or hyperinflation or WWIII. So people should take out insurance. That’s precious metals, among a bunch of other things.

            But that doesn’t mean one should hunker in a bunker.

            Unfortunately, the financialization of the economy seems to mean that those who can’t trade, at least the longer-term cycles (cyclical bulls and bears within secular cycles), are likely to lose. Those who’ve held the S&P 500 since 2000 haven’t really gotten anywhere, and likely won’t for a while yet.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:13 PM

            JJ, your reading comprehension matches your writing. I did not “tell everyone here what they are thinking.”

            Re: $800 gold in 1980

            Did you notice the word “accumulate” in my comment? I put it there for a reason. You know savings tend to be accumulated.

            Those greedy and clueless enough to buy a major spike are not exactly your typical saver. You buy a spike in ANY market and you are going to lose. That includes a Marty-approved market.

            Re: “Its what all you gold nuts hang onto EVENTUALLY you’ll be right, yippeeee!!!

            Fantastic approach…..can’t wait to see what Matty tells me I’m thinking now, so exciting”

            Your constant nastiness exposes your deficiencies much more thoroughly than your writing ever could.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:45 PM

            I can read a chart and I can read! Accumulate, how many bought gold leading up to the $800+ highs sub $400 Matty how about next to none from $700 upwards Lots!! just as they did when gold was $1600+ notice the big spike that’s the retail morons very few were buying in 2000 so the bulk always buys the last momentum swing just as they sell and create the bottoms.

            Anyone who doesn’t agree with your thoughts you attack because your never ever wrong. So I’m so useless stop following me around like a lost little girl…pisss off and keep promoting your Hero’s who have been wrong for so long its criminal

            Jun 08, 2015 08:13 PM

            ALL bull markets end with MOST money coming in at the top! What’s wrong with you?

            You’re the one that can’t tolerate anyone that doesn’t think as you do, JerkJerk.

          Jun 08, 2015 08:26 PM

          I believe that Bob was Refering to Mr Armstrong.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:36 PM

            Would all you guys please take a deep breath. I just read over all your comments and you are much more in agreement than you might realize.

            Common you are all way too smart fo4r this bs

      Jun 08, 2015 08:44 AM

      ojj:

      Aren’t you the fool who claimed the dollar can’t go down. It’s going to the moon. Everyone knows that. the market is never wrong.

      You might want to take a gander at the dollar index today. Last time I looked it was down 1.50%. That’s a $80 billion dollar loss to someone in a day. Last Tuesday there was a $116 billion loss in one day. Just how much longer do you think $690 trillion in derivatives, the US bond market and US stock market can handle that kind of volality?

        Jun 08, 2015 08:58 AM

        Its Booby time! yippie!!

        Bob it must be your age as your afraid of your own shadow, don’t voice your opinion off EMOTION the $ is tanking, the $ is tanking, and oh look gold is what 3 % off its lows so far from 2011, hmmm

        Have a 10 year old explain this chart to you, as its just collapsing!! ….1.5% oh my!!..lol

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90595623603&listNum=1&a=411439875

          Jun 08, 2015 08:03 PM

          Bobby make sure you invite Cory to your English class, lets be fair now don’t just pick on those that have been correct these past 4-6 years while you’ve been wrong.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:38 PM

            Now common man, leave Cory out of this!!
            The young man is brilliant.

          Jun 08, 2015 08:41 PM

          ojj: Spoke the fool with the broken record one more time. 100% of dollar bulls got taken out a week ago with a 2.20% in one day thrashing. What a shock? Why didn’t someone warn us in January that the dollar was about to crash?

          Oops, someone did.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:59 PM

            Bob Moronarty you have done nothing special Bob, nothing, its nothing the chart hasn’t done without your pompous attitude, imagine that!

            You warned the world of a US$ collapse in Jan as the $ went from 94 to 100 great call now you pat yourself on the back as the $ falls back….wow what a panic artist!

            The US$ hasn’t even broken the first line of support, oh and don’t think for a second I’m long and wrong the $, the chart suggested a short position from 97 seven days ago as its far more accurate than your calls ….collapse! OMG

            Find the neighbors dog he’ll show you how to read this simpleton chart, collapse! is that all you theatrical experts have, lol

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p55957473463&listNum=1&a=411439875

          Jun 08, 2015 08:42 PM

          ojj:

          2.20% in a day for the $$ is tanking for certain. I do hope you were long. How many punters are using any more than 1.5% margin? Oops, I listened to the master trader ojj and he blew it again.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:26 PM

            BOB MORIARTY , well haven’t you earned your name B. Moronarty, with all your terrible Dow crash, US$ crash, WW3 calls I’ve never hoped you lost money!

            I trade off the chart Bob and you ignorant waste of good air should be very capable of seeing nobody should be long the $ as the chart I showed clearly provides the correct side to be positioned, short!

            Well there you go Big Al your buddie B.M. hopes I lost money, complete scum!

            Open your eyes everyone this type of self proclaimed expert is the type your following, boy he just showed his true intent, all those not in agreement with him he hopes loses money.

            Grow some balls Bob and man up over your outrageous calls instead of attacking those who have been right.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:37 PM

            Hey Bob I guess you hope Rick Akerman got killed with a US$ long position too, some friend you are as Rick has a 120 call for the $, as long as they disagree with you then you hope everyone loses money = total scum!!

      Jun 08, 2015 08:12 PM

      Good point Original. The question is where would the price have settled a few days after an actual collapse?

        Jun 08, 2015 08:44 PM

        Al:

        If you were long the dollar, you got wiped out last Tuesday and today. If you were short the dollar you got wiped out Wednesday through Friday. The market cannot take those kinds of move for long. Hedge funds are getting clipped no matter which way they bet and if ojj says he can call any market from day to day, he made it up.

          Jun 08, 2015 08:31 PM

          Only a complete moron would be long the US$ as the chart shows. So Bob Moronarty what do you call someone who missed an 180% gain in US equities and a run of 20 cents this last year in the US$ all the while calling for a crash, that’s you buddie, it sure as hell isn’t Expert

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p55957473463&listNum=1&a=411439875

          Jun 09, 2015 09:51 AM

          Wiped out from a 2+% correction!? You must be kidding…Maybe yuo should buy some more Bitgold or NOVO…Thank god I dumped NOVO at $1+ WAFJ you are Bobbo.

    Jun 08, 2015 08:07 AM

    The trouble with The Fed is all this money printing has gone into the market for speculation and because the debt is so high they can’t raise rates, if they could raise rates high enough it would curb speculation making it less attractive, and increasing liquidity. But the way it is now if they were to raise rates even one point they will run the risk of a market meltdown.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:34 AM

      DT, the money also flow to the general economy through government spending (bond purchase) and real estate buying (MBS purchase).

    bb
    Jun 08, 2015 08:54 AM

    Mr Holter says “Nothing reported now makes any sense at all and the lies have by necessity gotten so big, even little children know them not to be true.”

    I agree with “nothing makes sense” what I disagree with is “even little children know them not to be true”
    When a lie is told loud enough and often enough people believe it.
    Very few people have an inkling much less a clue, check the vids of people trying to buy coffee with an once of gold/silver.
    Even amongst “informed” people there is disagreement, those in control should be able to do whatever they want until everything collapses.(think back on this site the argument about voting Ron Paul, what does “informed” mean anyway? lol))
    Even then, a collapse could be controlled.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:01 AM

      There is only one game in town, blow a bubble and keep it inflated. FED can do this easilly. Just pump money into the market. They can do this virtually forever. There is no limit how much they can print. They can even print secretly. Unless gold, there is no physical market to take their power away. SO I would bet on that the stock market just stay inflated.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:46 PM

      Soon, I will again explain just why Kathy and I own gold and silver. It has nothing to do with many of the current arguments..

      I do think that all of our political and economicdiscussions are very valuable. I h ave certainly learned a lot from all of you as well as our guests.

    Jun 08, 2015 08:23 AM

    Who knows when the market would have crashed and how far if they didn’t continue to print money and do everything to keep it from falling(PPT). Fiat money has always gone to zero and can you pick a worse time in the history of the world economically wise? Any reason we shouldn’t be hitting the wall? Not quite enough debt for you yet? Keep in mind that one morning the world is going to realize that printed money isn’t worth much any more and they will demand gold or a lot more of that fiat. That is when the fed may start selling off their balance sheet and raising rates, do you think their going to give the common people a heads up?
    At that time there won’t be any gold to buy. It could happen tomorrow.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:37 AM

      Two choices, if you are aggressive, put money in stocks. If you are afraid, hide in gold.

    Jun 08, 2015 08:26 AM

    Gold & Silver to da moon – dollars are worthless.
    So why does Sprott want my dollars so bad?
    -especially my doubly worthless CAD

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxuTouUgW10
    Warning: lots of “f” bombs – do you know where your grankiddies are?

      Jun 08, 2015 08:37 AM

      Great post…..Irwin……..(except for the “f” )…….funny and informative……

      bb
      Jun 08, 2015 08:43 AM

      That’s funny Irwin, I gotta laugh.
      Why the heck does Sprott want the dollars? Too funny.
      Somebody said forget what they say watch what they do.
      hmmm, seems hes taking dollars. lol

        GH
        Jun 08, 2015 08:00 PM

        If anyone wants to send me some, I’ll gladly take them–and convert them into something else asap!

        Jun 08, 2015 08:22 PM

        How does that angry little chimp know what Sprott wants? We all have to deal with currencies but that doesn’t mean we keep significant quantities of them.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:03 PM

      Longer version here: (more “f” for your worthless $)
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvSsKrtJRmg

      Precious metals aside, he does make some good points about pumpers and scams in all areas.

        Jun 08, 2015 08:10 PM

        I would have to agree with you concerning ….”making some good points…..”

          Jun 08, 2015 08:14 PM

          five min. was……..”f” ing enough…………..fthe boot……..

            Jun 08, 2015 08:14 PM

            🙂

            Jun 08, 2015 08:31 PM

            Al and Cory should have him on for ten minutes.
            I’m sure he cleans up nice for a polite audience.

            Now that he’s banned from the media (he says) he should have some spare time.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:39 PM

            ♫ ♫
            I was banned from the band
            in a foreign land
            but I’m feelin’ grand
            ’cause I bin scammed
            by the slimy hand
            of the high command
            and
            I ain’t got nuthin to lose
            no more.
            ♫ ♫

            Jun 08, 2015 08:43 PM

            Yes I think it was very telling that after not having a clue what Libertarian thought is about, that Mike Stathis spends the last 3 minutes ranting why nobody will talk to him, and he broke his arm off patting himself on the back. Mike, maybe if you weren’t such an angry douche then the news agencies would take you more serious. The reason nobody has taken him up on his $100k challenge is exactly because they can’t stand listening to his hatred and self-proclaimed superiority.

        GH
        Jun 08, 2015 08:11 PM

        I listened to this recently. He does make a good point. But the way he does it??

        Anyone who rambles for a half hour to present facts and arguments that could be made in 5 minutes gets a serious dose of DEpreciation from me. I value my time more than that.

          Jun 08, 2015 08:46 PM

          Agreed. He does make a few valid points and I’ve been aware of Mike for a while, but his style of trying to get followers by trashing every single person in a commodity sector is petty and he has just bred an audience of haters.

          They have become the very thing they hate.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:08 PM

      I’ll be falling asleep with “how effing stupid do you have to be?” ricocheting around my empty skull.

      And that’s probably a good thing!

        Jun 08, 2015 08:11 PM

        funny…………sleep tight……………. 🙂

          Jun 08, 2015 08:20 PM

          We shoulda listened to DOC about a month ago he said NAT could hit $11 – it went to $11.20 – high today $13.70 on nice volume.

          Way to go DOC!
          http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?NAT

            Jun 08, 2015 08:45 PM

            For all of you BitGold holders…And don’t listen to Bob Moriarty I cant remember when he last got anything right. Howz you $6 purchase working out?!
            Better think twice on BitGONE….And the USD is going a lot higher…. I mean your used toilet paper.
            http://moneytalks.net/article-and-commentary/todays-best-money-making-ideas/currency/15178-is-this-golds-long-awaited-killer-app.html

            Jun 08, 2015 08:54 PM

            In all fairness Bill B.M. has made some great calls regarding tops and bottoms of gold and silver, as the chart below clearly shows Bob called $1130 a low and the chart did as well….its the US$ to dust, WW3, Dow to crash calls that are just very wrong for a very long time….but these guys all hang on EVENTUALLY we will be right and if they ever are you can bet all thir wrongs calls are never mentioned.

            Chart called Nov low and Jan high…just saying

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p55039552470&listNum=1&a=411183786

            Jun 08, 2015 08:06 PM

            Bill, by dollar going higher you have to define whether it is going to buy more things or more Yen. If it buys more Yen, what different does it make. You are just compare different brands of toilet papers.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:14 PM

            DOLLAR DOWN BIG TODAY…………1.16

            Jun 08, 2015 08:15 PM

            95.21 DOLLAR………..down….1.14….

            Jun 08, 2015 08:51 PM

            Irwin, you’re welcome. Another one I mentioned was XON which just broke out again the last 2 days. Also, Chris’ FEYE is another one I’ve mentioned. There should be a short term pullback but the long term chart looks very nice. Also, I believe NAT will go higher over time since the supply of oil will stay strong for a long period of time. There is a sister stock you might want to look at with a nice dividend which has the symbol NAO—-I haven’t purchased it yet but will in the future when I feel it is ready to move up. It’s a nice inverse play for NAT. None of this is investment advice but just some thoughts to consider. By the way, I believe Claude is ripe to break down here for awhile but then should be a good purchase for the future.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:06 PM

            Great stuff, Doc – thanks!

            My watch list is doing way better than my inv portfolio. Always seems to be the way it goes.

            Jun 08, 2015 08:08 PM

            Irwin ( REALY ) Diss NEW paradise pup is ???? Rome fall take’s TIME ! ONLY GOLD ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vu9HCqnXD4

            Jun 08, 2015 08:17 PM

            Franky: ce cochon incirconcis ne me fait pas peur

            Jun 08, 2015 08:48 PM

            Yes Irwin ! Your electronic currency will save you ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4fG10YWcWI

            Jun 08, 2015 08:51 PM

            Bill:

            You are so right. It’s been so long since I got anything right that maybe I should hang up my computer. The last piece that I wrote that helped a stock move must have been years and years ago.

            Oops, it was June 5. Maybe you should look before you open mouth. Would 50% in three days work for you?

            http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty060515.html

            Jun 08, 2015 08:32 PM

            Ojj
            Hell.. I made some great calls but I also admit when I’m wrong. Some people have a gift with burying their blowouts. I know a couple guys that get it right with fundamentals…90%
            That’s a real a market pro…not some fake….broken clock…

            Jun 08, 2015 08:06 PM

            Bill:

            Your issue has nothing to do with someone making bad calls. Your issue has to do with knowing how to take a profit. You don’t know how and the greatest caller in the world can’t make money for you unless you learn to buy low and sell high. You want to buy high and sell low and that never seems to work. You and i have had this conversation before and while you like to pretend you are smarter than anyone else here, you blew some great profits by not taking them when you could.

            Markets go up and down and you need to learn that and take it to heart. If you won’t take a profit, the only other alternative is to take a loss.

            I’m a gold bug for real, not a permabull and I was negative as hell in 2011 and you want someone to manage your account for you to tell you every time to sell. Sorry but you really do have to take some responsibility for yourself.

            I said in Jan that the dollar was about to have a blowoff top and it has. Now you can count all the folks totally convinced the dollar is in a permanent bull market. It may not be true. There are way too many people on one side of the boat.

            Jun 09, 2015 09:55 AM

            Bob your issue is your WERE GOING TO BLOW SKY HIGH BS… You should talk to some of the folk I know….Fricken fat headed clown….Go buy some more NOVO…THE GREATEST STOCK IN THE WORLD…You should have been buying FORD LOL

      Jun 08, 2015 08:47 PM

      GREAT point Irwin.

    Jun 08, 2015 08:10 PM

    “NO mother should have to FEAR for her son’s life every time he robs a store.”

    -no joke, I think he’s serious.

    Haven’t read the article yet, but the pic is worth a click.
    http://www.greaterfool.ca/

    Jun 08, 2015 08:34 PM

    Well the dollar bottomed and gold topped in 2008 and in 2011. Now the US dollar is in bull market. When the dollar tops, perhaps gold will bottom plus or minus a little while.
    The goldbugs have been pounding the table for 4 years of a bear market and it is all sour grapes.
    bob M is lucky or highly astute if he bought his gold under $300. Most are not so lucky but it is surely nice to have bought in the years 2001-2004 for instance , if you bought under $500 Or even under $700. It is still aggravating to see profits eroded away though.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:00 PM

      How refreshing someone with a brain, thank you! SD

        Jun 08, 2015 08:53 PM

        You certainly do have a brain Silver Bug!

      Jun 08, 2015 08:18 PM

      SD:
      “For months I have been searching for some sign that we’ve seen the bottom for the precious metals. I am a contrarian investor. I want to invest when no one else sees opportunity.”. . .

      “It couldn’t possibly get deader than this. No one is interested in mining companies today and that’s the time to buy.”. . .

      “All classes of investments move in a pendulum from being absurdly overpriced (as silver was in 1980 and the Nasdaq in March of 2000 to being insanely cheap). In both real and nominal terms, the price of gold and the price of silver are cheaper than any point in the last 100 years. We can’t predict the bottom of any market and don’t know anyone who can. But silver and gold are cheap. And gold stocks are far cheaper than they were in the summer of 1999 when gold was cheaper in nominal terms than today.”. . .

      “Small gold stocks are risky under any circumstances. They can rise 25% in a day and drop 25% in a day. Often the price of a particular stock seems to have no relationship whatsoever to the price of gold. One can rocket while the other plummets. And often small golds are so poorly financed that a small money problem can cause giant repercussions. Some of the companies are so tiny that the death of one of the members of management can have a disastrous impact. For that and many other reasons, in our own accounts, we invest in a wide variety of mining stocks hoping that a disaster in one will be offset by wonderful news in another. I personally believe a dozen or more stocks should be owned to spread the very real risk across a variety of companies. With some of these stocks selling for literally pennies, it is possible to buy thousands of shares for a relatively small amount.”

      Those words were written in May of 2001. Martin Armstrong and Robert Prechter were both calling for $200 or lower gold.

      SD you may see why I don’t have any patience with those whining about losing money in juniors now and again. I was warning from the gitgo how dangerous they were but people pay attention only to those who tell them what they want to hear. People love to hate gold now because some Johnny come lately who didn’t have squat to say in April or Sept of 2011 now hates gold. Of course everyone hates gold and loves the stock market and the dollar. That’s when markets surprise almost everyone.

      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/small051401.html

        Jun 08, 2015 08:44 PM

        Good stuff Bob. It is actually quite bullish there are so many uppity and pissed off bears right now.

        Jun 09, 2015 09:23 AM

        Great information Bob. I remember that you was calling people to take profit in 2011. You are bull on gold but a smart bull. You give people good advice. I am not agreeing with you 100% but I feel you have done better than most. It is hard to be a bull now since people have a lot of reason to ridicule you. Keep it up.

      Jun 08, 2015 08:20 PM

      Gold was $265 when I wrote those words. I don’t give a crap if gold is $1923 or $800. Why should I?

        Jun 08, 2015 08:05 PM

        Bob I know this will be a real stretch for you to understand but now that you’ve highlighted to everyone just how incredibly smart you are buying gold at $265 because we all know nobody else was buying then, only you, really? And that you called the top in gold and silver and didn’t take profits which today you’d be able to buy a lot more silver and gold or a heck of a lot more if you had bought the Dow and the US$ as you called the top but that would be asking too much, right, especially with a $ crash and Dow crash coming the last 4 years, lol

        So Bob how about all those that are long US$ since 72 do you really think they give a crap if the $ is 95, why should they!

        How about all those that bought the Dow at 7000 or the S&P at 700 do you think they are worried.

        Your not the only guy who has invested at much lower levels with very significant gains, imagine that

          Jun 09, 2015 09:00 AM

          Actually this who bought the Dow at 7000, both of them, should be worried and with all the dollar bulls on this platform, everyone should be worried. A 2.20% drop in the dollar last week would be pretty much the equivalent of a $500 drop in gold in a day. The markets are giving warning of bad things coming down the pike.

          You get to pick your choice of potential wars leading to WW III today. Might be Yemen, might be ISIS, could even be Ukraine. Why didn’t someone warn us bad things were coming down the pike>

          Oops, someone was warning us and some didn’t want to pay attention because they were too busy playing that broken record, the market is never wrong, the market is never wrong, the market is never wrong, the market is never wrong, the market is never wrong.

          Which is nonsense of course. The market gets it wrong all the time. If the market was right, you couldn’t have 2.20% moves in the dollar in a day.

            Jun 09, 2015 09:36 AM

            Bob you know the more you post the more I realize you have no clue.

            So your long gold at $265 as golds fallen 40% off its highs and you crow why should I care, well the US$ has fallen 4% off its highs , yes 4%!!!! oh my lets panic! The Dow has fallen 3% off its highs so its going to crash, man your losing it, simple math Bob, = No Big Deal!!

            As I showed you the chart suggested shorting the US$ @ 97.50 so the market was right as it always was.

            Increase your meds pal!

            Jun 09, 2015 09:01 AM

            Yes Ojj I see it but not too many do…+1
            Bobbo something has been coming down the Pike for every….LOL
            What gold is going to be the safe haven!??? Id rather own a potato farm.
            I will let you fear mongering nut jobs know when there will be an issue.
            You call the dollar correction 2% a crash??? ROTFL

            Jun 09, 2015 09:04 AM

            Seriously Bob…grab a clue..There’s always a crash just around the corner??? With you….TO MUCH AGENT ORANGE???

            Jun 09, 2015 09:26 AM

            Ohhhh and I have to laugh about you call THERE A FLOCK A BLACK SWANS just around the corner….What 2-3 years ago?
            Your right about one thing. You have zero understanding of the fundamentals of the economy…CLUELESS

    Jun 09, 2015 09:13 AM

    “Newmont Mining has agreed to acquire the Cripple Creek & Victor gold mine in Colorado from AngloGold (NYSE:AU) for $820M in cash plus a 2.5% net smelter return royalty for gold production from potential future underground ore. Newmont (NYSE:NEM) believes the deal will add 350K-400K oz./year of gold in 2016 and 2017 at all-in sustaining costs of between $825-$875/oz. To fund the deal, NEM plans to conduct a public offering of 29M common shares, with an underwriters option to purchase up to an additional 4.35M shares. NEM -1.5% AH.”

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2567886-newmont-mining-to-buy-cripple-creek-and-victor-from-anglogold-for-820m?ifp=0

      Jun 09, 2015 09:47 AM

      more proof that the divestment of projects in the Majors and Mid-tiers continues on, to clean up the excesses of the last bull run where too many projects were acquired in a “growth for the sake of growth” model. I think this is a healthy sign that the industry is starting to go bottom fishing, and expect to see more of this type of activity over the next few months.