Commentary on the conventional markets and the almost $2 move in oil
Gary kicks off today with his comments on a potential fall in the US markets this summer. Gary continues to look for an intermediate cycle bottom but seems concerned that it could be stretched. We then finish with Gary’s assessment of the oil price which is making a big move up today.
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Some questions Gary,
For sub $1000 gold your going to need a rate hike from the FOMC driving the $ above 100
We now have Armstrong (for years now) Rambus, Maund, Ackerman, Savage and a few others calling for much lower gold and silver, Maund possible $10 silver.
Your suggestion of a 100 HUI and a possible puke to 50 !! would create fantastic gains using DUST with possible 100% and 200% gains, how much of your money are you putting behind your opinion?
If its nothing than I guess you hold very little value in your own forecasts, those gains being short the sector will allow a far bigger long position at THE, THE bottom
I’m not very good at shorting. Usually I just wait in cash for the opportunity to get long.
wait with 90% cash but 10% short, never understood how anyone can make bold calls with no skin in the game, odd????????????
Sorry out climbing today.
enjoy!! be safe
Gary – I’m always glad to hear you voice the next day after you’ve been out climbing. Be well.
Any bozo can draw a line on a chart going to zero or da moon
I prefer real time indicators over doom and gloom or blast off skyrocketing calls!
Silver’s been a short since $17+
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07017815909&listNum=1&a=411578327
Now this is an interesting transaction. Five juniors into one, all with something to offer. Four more juniors disappear (poof). I suspect we will be seeing a few more of these as this makes sense for all involved.
From THE gold expert: updated gold outlook
http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31525
Try to open your mind and be like a trader just following the trend and the capital flows. The market is always right – it cannot be wrong. Only we are wrong for when the market does something we did not anticipate our analysis is at fault – not the market.
THE expert that missed the low 15 years ago because he thought gold was going lower.
The fact is, Marty is not a gold expert nor a monetary or economics expert. His impressive expertise is found in Socrates.
Marty’s $5,000 and $12,000 gold calls come to mind…..
AMEN!!
Just FYI guys. For final wash out we have few pundits thinking so. They are Gary S, Jordan Burne, Clive Mound and BOB LOUKAS. Everyone else to best of my knowledge is thinking bottom is in so those 4 individuals are among minority not majority which is good.
I think there are fair number of investors waiting for the bottom and final flush out over the balance of 2015 to take positioning. In fact, there are so many waiting to go bottom fishing, that this may limit the downside to some degree, but it is likely we’ll get a small bounce near 1150 (capped at 1180), and and then test 1130 Nov lows, and if they break head down to $1044.70 target I’ve been waiting for since Feb/March.
I hope so. This price action is making me fall asleep and not care at all but i know the principles so that won’t happen.
Ha! I’m with ya Stewie….That’s why they call it a slow GRIND…..just like Jr High dances.
It is also why we call this time of year the Summer Doldrums.
I believe that a clear majority thinks the low is still ahead. I might be wrong though.
Most places I tune in are waiting for these “lower lows”, and reports from some of the smaller mining shows overseas have been more sparsely attended and pessimistic in the short term. That is a good sign that we’re getting closer as the M&A activitiy, divestment of non-core properties with the Majors and Midtiers, and the bankruptcies in the Juniors and smaller producers are starting to accumulate.
🙂
oh and i forgot about Avi too
Murin’em lol
B.M. better go long extra strength depends cause if your buddies Savage and Ackerman are correct that 120 US$ and 50 HUI index is going to have you not only giving a crap but crapping!
I know you don’t care gold is off 40% from its highs because you bought sub $300 or that the HUI index is off 75% but with such big % losses in place why would those long the US$ be worried if they bought at lows like 72 or the Dow at 7000, what your the only guy buying lows, lol
So US$ index is off 5% and the Dow off 3% from their highs, those % losses would suggest longs really don’t give a crap!
Simple math, real simple!
lol
Bobs heading over to Greece to sell Bitgold door to door….if Dr M.M. is correct its going nowhere and FAST…..
The ONLY way your going to get sub $1000 gold is US interest rate hikes, sure Greece’s debt issue if pushed off into 2016 will remove some goldbug collapse fear but unless the ECB or Japan are going to be unleashing another round of QE devaluing their currencies (doubt it), the HUI at 100 or 50 will need a rate hike, hikes! pushing the $ way higher
Then again Marty has been calling sub $1000 purely on his computer data, but what will be the trigger, US rates?
Fear will be the trigger.
Dr Martin M has a very good handle on the fundamentals. No BS hype just realistic scenarios. Bob M works off his dart board…
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf14/dgf14keynote-speakers/martin-murenbeeld-dgf14.html
I have to thank you Bill, that talk is worthwhile.
I like that he said what I’ve been saying over and over again. Just before the 14 minute mark, he asks (paraphrasing here): Why should gold go down versus the dollar just because the dollar is rising against worse currencies?
He is exactly right and that is why I am not worried about gold even if the dollar does go to 120.
The fact that some gold poopers jump up and down on this hard asset investment site to declare victory and arrogantly point their fingers to gold bulls indicates that this manipulation phase is way overdone and will get over soon. This site is supposed to be a place filled with gold bulls, the last line of defence by the hard asset bulls. It is a true contrarian indicator.
I completely agree with you Lawrence. A bubble in the bears’ confidence has developed.
That was a good talk from 2014 from Martin Murenbeeld. I’ve listened to him before and have respect for the research group over at Dundee Capital Markets. They are large stakeholders in a ton of companies and always do their DD.
Good stuff.Thanks for posting it Bill.
Sure Mathew…Yes I have a lot of respect for him and I think that’s the kind of move that can surprise the majority??? We shale see….
I had heard of him before but this is the first time I’ve heard him speak. Very good stuff.
He gets to the facts no doubt. I had to do another run through..lost of great data…and he’s weighs in on both sides…I’ve followed him for 12 years.
***** REPOSTING THE BELOW ******
Recommended quick read (and will post elsewhere):
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/global-growth-stabilizing-right-on-cue
Best to all and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Good article from Chris Puplava with good thoughts on the Leading Economic Indicators he tracks and what the means for the equity markets in the next 2 quarters.
Thanks LPG.
Hey Gary, QQQ closed at 108.01 below the 50-day moving average of 108.46 while COMP closed right smack-dab on the 50-day. I take that as quite bearish. You? (Thanks)
The next couple fo days will tell me whether stocks are going to continue down into an intermediate degree correction or whether we will have to wait another complete daily cycle before it arrives.
Is Gary going to change his view again?
If short term forecaster unanimously predict lower lows, it is most likely not going to happen.
Forecasters
Gary you forgot to post your outlook on gold part 2
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/06/gold-surviving-the-last-few-months-of-the-bear-market-part-ii.html