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Friday Market and Political Commentary from Doc

Big Al
June 12, 2015

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77 Comments
    bb
    Jun 12, 2015 12:43 AM

    Last week, Mannarino said the stock market had topped, and it has nowhere to go but down. Why? Mannarino says Dow Transports need to be rising in order to sustain a rising stock market. With all the gains of 2015 now wiped out, Mannarino says, “You would expect the Dow Transports to be rising with the equity markets or stock market. We are not seeing that at all. There is an absolute disconnect here. . . . The Dow Transports have begun a clear leg down, and unless something dramatic happens to bring the Transports back up, this bull market is over.”

      Jun 12, 2015 12:52 AM

      Yup, those were interesting comments. Also agree strongly with Doc that long bonds won’t be seeing their highs anytime soon and that the dollar is looking weak with another leg down not too far distant. Actually it is the Euro I am following right now for a break above 1.15 once a minor correction completes.

        Jun 12, 2015 12:56 AM

        possible 116.20 on the euro-dollar….just my seven cents 😉

          Jun 12, 2015 12:04 PM

          I think its pretty clear sailing up to 1.20 after 1.15 breaks but maybe I am an optimist, Mark. What I think the charts are telling us is that a Greek solution is coming that is bullish Euro and thus negative dollars.

            Jun 12, 2015 12:34 PM

            Interesting thoughts on the rising Euro after we finish the near term correction guys.

        bb
        Jun 12, 2015 12:05 PM

        Good to see you back Bird, hope your feeling better.

        Jun 12, 2015 12:33 PM

        Bird, good to see you posting again. I was concerned.

          Jun 12, 2015 12:05 PM

          Thanks guys. Much appreciated. I’m A-OK now, happy to say. Just trying to get caught up again but I feel kind of disconnected from what is going on. Like I went on a long holiday bender or something!

            Jun 12, 2015 12:14 PM

            HH..Prophecy was also fulfill once….again…

            YOU ARE RETIRED IN HERE..

      Jun 12, 2015 12:59 AM

      BB,

      one of the things that has effected the Transports is that many of the companies that make up that sector have to deal with the transporting and shipping of oil. With Oil getting whacked for over a year, the results on many oil transporters has finally taken a toll on the index.

      Not that the Dow Theory hasn’t been good in the past, but I would be a bit careful putting too much reliance on that sector to determine the overall “strength” of the markets, especially when we are in unprecedented times. If Oil can somehow stage a rally into the upper $60 (say $68-maybe $70) then those transporting companies could see a temporary boost. just my opinion.

      stay frosty

        bb
        Jun 12, 2015 12:08 PM

        Mark, I wonder if double hull vessels don’t have all the work they can handle.
        A few years ago I had a fellow mention to me a company that got rid of their single hulls for double and they been going full speed ever since.
        Well, up to that time anyway.

          Jun 12, 2015 12:17 PM

          You’re right BB. I have a brother-in-law that had to change driving to a double hull and he now has to make more trips but he is paid well. The company says it saves them money, so….there you go.

          Ahhhh the savvy of free market thinkers 🙂

          Jun 12, 2015 12:35 PM

          BB; that might be north american tanker which I’ve mentioned a number of times over the last 4-5 months. The dividend is outstanding and the stock continues higher with the technicals looking strong.

            bb
            Jun 12, 2015 12:48 PM

            Your probly right Doc, a fellow mentioned it to me about 3-4 years ago, I believe he mentioned dividends as well.
            But, I stuck to shiny metals lol.

            Would be nice to have the cash to cover everything.

            Jun 12, 2015 12:59 PM

            I think you mean Nordic American Tanker, Doc. I hope so, anyway.

          Jun 13, 2015 13:52 AM

          BB; my error—nordic american tanker—-I should know better since I’ve owned the stock for some time.

        Jun 12, 2015 12:08 PM

        Good thinking Mark.

    LPG
    Jun 12, 2015 12:48 AM

    Richard’s comment is right on the money re: TPP, Gvt etc…
    LPG

      Jun 12, 2015 12:34 PM

      I agree with you, LPG, and consider him to be right on the money regarding his market commentary as well (Dow; transports; USD).

      I bought UUP puts right before the dollar plunged on Yellin’s comments and as most probably remember, I never did buy into the view that the USD was going higher anytime soon.

      I believe stocks are heading for a bear market, not Martin’s “phase transition” or similar melt-up.

        Jun 12, 2015 12:37 PM

        Yes, Doc had some very good very good points on today’s show on the TPP, failure in representation by our politicians, and pressure to the industrial sectors if the Transport numbers are low. This is why I see the 7 year lows in the CRB commodity cycle playing out in the next 3-6 months.

          Jun 12, 2015 12:45 PM

          He learned it all from me?!

          Jun 12, 2015 12:43 PM

          Shad and Mark Alan; I’m with you on the commodity area. I felt months ago that March-June would be the bottom but my TA now is showing what you guys feel.

            Jun 12, 2015 12:18 PM

            THAT’S good to know…if only for the sake of knowing that I have learned how to read a chart 🙂

            thanks Doc!

            Jun 12, 2015 12:40 PM

            I love it when a plan comes together 🙂

    LPG
    Jun 12, 2015 12:49 AM

    And re: TPP fast-track, re-posting from Zerohedge:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/house-kills-obamas-tpp-bill-after-pelosi-led-democrat-rebellion
    Best to all,
    LPG

      Jun 12, 2015 12:46 PM

      When all is said and done, it will be interesting to see just how much damage Pelosi did. After all, she is a savvy politician!

    Jun 12, 2015 12:58 AM

    This one is for Dick Tracy…….
    Have you seen this chat? I am still rubbing my eyes in disbelief….no trouble in Toronto at all folks. Please move along. It’s just a *normal* spike! Markets do it all the time. Ha ha ha!

    Toronto Unsold Condos
    http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Canada-Toronto-unsold-condos-2015-051.png

      Jun 12, 2015 12:01 PM

      The full article from Zerohedge is here DT.

      Toronto’s Epic Condo Bubble Suddenly Turns into Condo Glut — Zerohedge
      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/toronto%E2%80%99s-epic-condo-bubble-suddenly-turns-glut

      Jun 12, 2015 12:47 PM

      That is more than just a little interesting, Bird!

        Jun 12, 2015 12:07 PM

        I am sure it will end well!

          Jun 14, 2015 14:50 PM

          Bird, Zerohedge tends to exaggerate but this time I believe they are under reporting the magnitude of this problem. Within a five block radius of where I live there are easily twelve high rise condos under construction or in the planning stage.

    Jun 12, 2015 12:59 AM

    Stay tuned……….Its The ..HH ..Prophecy.. is being fulfilled.

    Just as predicted. My gold forecast was also with pinpoint
    surgical accuracy last 8 months. Last week has been dead
    on.

    All my forecasts posted will be accurately fulfilled.

    The world will change radically for the very worst
    in the next 12 months and onwards.

    All human life will be greatly affected.

    HUNKER DOWN !!!!

      Jun 12, 2015 12:02 PM

      Sorry? What exactly was your prophecy? I don’t recall you making any.

        Jun 12, 2015 12:08 PM

        Its all here in black and white.

        TRUTH …in ….ALL MY WORDS !!!!!

        HUNKER DOWN !!!!!

          Jun 12, 2015 12:11 PM

          Ah yes….pinpoint surgical accuracy. How did I ever miss that?

        bb
        Jun 12, 2015 12:11 PM

        Come on now Bird, be fair, its the end of the world and we all gonna suffer pain and despair. Hes been preaching it for months.
        When I am all consumed in agony I will give credit where it is due and say “HH told me”.

          Jun 12, 2015 12:15 PM

          Poor soul…

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWSx0bBiNIs

          REALITY CHECK !!!!!

            Jun 12, 2015 12:18 PM

            GIT IT OR GETMO…..

            Jun 12, 2015 12:21 PM

            YOU WANT MORE……

            The truth hurts…

            While everyone does this. Want me to start mentioning names.

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oiQhhdz8ys

            Jun 12, 2015 12:31 PM

            No thanks frankly. You can’t change the
            color of a leopards stops.

            You did a excellent job delivering the message.

            Keep up the good work.

            Jun 12, 2015 12:02 PM

            Spots not stops. ..

            Ah…who cares. ..maybe stop the BS too

          Jun 12, 2015 12:10 PM

          If he is right then we are all dead…and if he’s wrong then life will go on. Yeah, I am not too worried. But sure, he gets credit if we all suddenly die off. Ha!

            Jun 12, 2015 12:20 PM

            You have been absent too ..too long.

            The worm is turning….open zzzz eyes.

            My gold markets calls are precision.

            Jade Hell…NWO…WW3….TPP I warned long ago was disaster.

            All my warnings are now apparent.

            OPEN..ZZZZZZ ..EYES…. !!!!!!!

            Jun 12, 2015 12:30 PM

            TPP ..just because it never passed means nothing.

            O….has full power to do whatever he wants. He controls
            all of the E.U. now.

            O…was recently granted by Congress everything is under
            his control under the war powers act.

            Right now we are at war all over the world. O is in control
            of The Western World.

            Once military engagements become more serious and they
            will, …….WATCH OUT !!!!

            You can’t say I didn’t warn you. Officially, you have been warned
            by all the facts and evidence. Most refuse to acknowledge.

            Jun 12, 2015 12:04 PM

            Bird….Reverend Andrew…franky…STOP…

            WW3 ..NATO…is provoking nuclear war.

            4 minute mark on video. This is HUGE…

            https://youtu.be/B4ySeJG4XSA

            Check it out. Decide for yourselves.

            Ha….NATO is really getting aggressive.

            These are not bedtime stories… fellas

            Jun 13, 2015 13:20 AM

            Stupid music just to try ad scare us further HH.

            Jun 13, 2015 13:01 AM

            Stay ignorant at your own peril . Economic collapse, corruption and then
            comes major war. Ha…NATO is all over Russian borders and now could
            be using biological weapons.

            What do you think this is anyway. A one way street where NATO is can
            surround Russia and its sovereignty with no serious repercussions.

            You know Reverend Andrew you and many others here concern me.
            All the events and great perils are just glossed over and nothing will
            ever happen because we have seen this before.

            Never on this scale in the history of mankind have we witnessed anything
            like this. What do have to do…. name everything ???

            This is the same reason Reverend Andrew that this world is on its way to
            complete destruction. You and others refuse to open your eyes to the truth.

            I also resent you calling my warnings…”stupid music “.

            Ha…you are not even aware we are in a major war cycle. Or you wouldn’t
            make such a foolish comment. Your ramblings lately and ignorance of
            the truth are quite disturbing. You enjoy living a lie that this world is not
            headed for total destruction, then by all means…KNOCK YOURSELF
            OUT WITH OTHERS HERE..who can’t seem to get out of their own way
            tripping on their own feet.

            Very reason this world is headed for complete destruction.

            YOU REFUSE TO WAKE UP !!!! Unless there are bombs going off over your
            heads.

            ITS ALREADY TOO LATE. The worst in mankinds history is coming.

            How many times do I have to repeat why ??????????????

            They are still on the weekend board wondering why and what.

            Man, I’m so sick of this place. WHAT A JOKE.. I envy JJ right now.

            ONE MORE TIME FOLKS…….YOU, THE WORLD AND GOVERNMENT

            HAS KICKED GOD OUT OF THEIR LIVES !!!!!!!!

            This whole board ..still….is never going to get the message.

            ITS PATHETIC IN HERE. Absolutely disgusting !!!!!!

            KEEP TRIPPING OVER YOUR OWN FEET…why..how..remedy etc.

            Jun 13, 2015 13:11 AM

            Vortex has hit on all of the reasons except one.

            Weekend board.

            He gets a lot of credit though. MUCH.

            We are now rejecting God and mocking
            him as well. I have explained this in detail
            before on this board.

            With that being said this world is already
            on its way to destruction. Annihilation.

            Pay attention !!!!!

            Jun 13, 2015 13:27 AM

            Ha…Ha…..ALL HELL IS GOING TO BREAK LOOSE….

            WITHIN MONTHS !!!!!!!!!!

            What I find funny is why people refuse to awaken out of their sleep.

            ALL ..OF YOU..ARE..IN…A ..STUPOR !!!!!

            COMATOSE. …all headed for destruction….

            UNLESS YOU REPENT AND MAINTAIN GOD IN YOUR LIFE.

            Go ahead….live your lies of the world. Lets see how it works
            out for you. Ha…so far the big sloop in being formed..

            ITS A LONG WAYS DOWN…FOLKS !!!!!

            Jun 13, 2015 13:28 AM

            Slope….not sloop…

            Going be slooped up too.

            Jun 13, 2015 13:19 PM

            Also, tell me how gold and silver is going to be prosperous
            when the world goes into a cataclysmic collapse.

            This is not the 1970’s. Nor is it any other era unless you want
            to compare it to the dark ages. Only this new paradigm will be
            much worse.

            Please elaborate, I would really like to know.

            Your so consumed in all your foolish dreams and fantasies out
            there its blinding you.

            What, you think its fun to be rich…the wannabes still haven’t got
            past that stage yet.

            I guess you didn’t know that either.

            JUST DON’T KNOW MUCH OF ANYTHING HERE !!!!!

            Most, if not, a very large percentage on their way to destruction.

            HO..HO..HO……ITS SO MUCH FUN TO BE RICH !!!!!!!!

            HE..HE..HE………..STUPIDO. !!!!!!!!!! Really, wake up out of the
            foolish and ridiculous dreams/fantasies.

            Jun 13, 2015 13:12 PM

            My apologies for ranting and raving.

            I’m really pissed off because I see
            where this world is going.

            I have family too. Trying to wake them up
            and keep anyone awake who understands.

            Ha….they wake up just to go back to sleep
            again.

            Its a great hardship. Have no idea. All on
            this road to total destruction.

            Its only months away. Could happen anytime
            too.

            LA..LA..LAND FOR NOW…could change instantaneously.

            It will too !!!

    bb
    Jun 12, 2015 12:04 PM

    Government representing the population?

    When ever was there representation for the people?

    Woodrow Wilson working for banks installed the federal reserve and took the states into war, no representation there really,
    (False Flag at Sea
    The Lusitania, Woodrow Wilson, and the Deceptions that Dragged America into World War I) maybe before Wilson?

    Actually, James Perloff having done the research explains that all wars the americans have been in excluding 1776 was for banks not the people.
    Pearl Harbour a false flag etc etc

    When ever were the American population represented (for the people by the people) by their government?

    I could be wrong, maybe the people were represented when Kennedy was president. I know of no other time, but I don’t know all about American presidents.

    A percentage of people figuring this stuff out? Yesterday, Silverdoc or Zerohedge showed a video of a fellow getting signatures on a petition to “nuke” Russia. Lots of people signing gladly.
    Ya, I can see the American population figuring things out, lol.

      Jun 12, 2015 12:33 PM

      Our plan was for Japan to attack Wake Island and use that as an excuse to get into the Pacific Campaign. We had a real fake resort there to cover our military build-up. Didn’t quite work out that way. They did attack Wake about a day after Pearl. I think the same thing happened on 9-11. We thought the high-jackings were going to just be hot air with no one getting killed. We could use the ‘jackings as an excuse to take down the Middle East. Kinda got out of hand hence all the arse covering after the fact. Kinda like the cops letting the robbers rob the bank to make a more solid case. But on the way out the robbers blow the bank up with C-4 and everyone in it. Oops!

        bb
        Jun 12, 2015 12:54 PM

        I don’t know about that Jason. I read Herbert o Yardlys book on poker some years ago.
        He was sent to China to break the Japanese codes in the early 30s.
        He talks about it in the book “education of a poker player”

        I tend to go with the americans knew full well what the Japanese were up to and that’s why the carriers were not at Pearl. Actually were the warships docked there not older?

    Jun 12, 2015 12:29 PM

    Ross Perot warned us about NAFTA and people laughed at him. They ain’t laughing now!

      Jun 12, 2015 12:41 PM

      I used to get a kick out of Ross Perot’s slide shows…..”Ya see here…..this chart…..”

      They were very good, and I feel he would have run the country like a company, not a nanny state, so it would have been an interesting 4 or maybe 8 years.

      Jun 12, 2015 12:43 PM

      TRUTH!!!

      Jun 12, 2015 12:51 PM

      NO, they are not laughing now, Jason.

    Jun 12, 2015 12:35 PM
      Jun 12, 2015 12:55 PM

      Gabriel, thank you very much for the reminder to look at the COT—you’re correct; there was a massive change in the shorts by the commercials both in silver and gold. I would like to see some further deterioration in the PMs yet for a couple of weeks. The COT then might give us a green light.

        Jun 12, 2015 12:38 PM

        Doc,

        Are you talking long term green light here as in “the bottom” or just a short term seasonal bounce? Please clarify and thank you.

          Jun 12, 2015 12:42 PM

          Duke, I believe it will only be seasonal. It appears to me when I constantly look at the ETFs GDX and GDXJ that we won’t see them bottom until the end of July or early August—sure there will be ups and downs until then but it appears this cycle’s low for them won’t be until then. Hope this helps. Then we should get another bounce and we’ll see how strong it is.

            Jun 12, 2015 12:47 PM

            By the way, Duke; I’m planning on outlining 2 charts in the near future that have been instructive to me in the multi month scenario I’ve been using for future pricing. So far they’ve unfolded the way expected and have not shown price breakouts to the upside or significant breakdown of pricing for the PMs. That’s why for months I’ve talked about how we’re going to have to be patient and there was no hurry to get fully invested with the PM stocks. Also that there would be lower lows yet for some of the PM stocks—that’s starting to unfold as we post.

            Jun 12, 2015 12:49 PM

            You’re a good man Doc, thank you. That low in July or August, is that your long term low? Please advise target for low and timeframe if you don’t mind. I agree that there should be a bounce next week for a week or two depending on what Mother Fellen has to say. Then most likely a drift into August and actually a pretty strong close to the year. Thoughts?

            Jun 12, 2015 12:13 PM

            Duke, the most important chart to watch right now is the $hui which is breaking down—I would love to see us get down to 100-125 in this move. I believe that’s your bottom—I would focus on that more then I would gold. I would be a big time borrower of PM stocks if we can get there by fall. Gary’s intermediate cycle could extend deeper into the fall to allow us the lows I’m mentioning on $hui. I feel confident we break the last low on the $hui in this move down.

    Jun 12, 2015 12:35 PM
    Jun 12, 2015 12:03 PM

    I really liked Doc’s comments today about TPP and human nature. True wisdom.

    Jun 12, 2015 12:45 PM

    How the Fed Is Helping the Few and Hurting the Rest
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkJLeARMxBI

    Ron
    Jun 13, 2015 13:38 AM

    Great political comments Doc….you hit the proverbial nail on the head!!!
    There is only one way we can solve the problem and that is by coming together in prayer and asking the Lord to heal our land, and lead us to men and women who will really do what is right for our Country, and our kids and grand kids future.
    My wife and I would pray that we might be so blessed!!

      Tom
      Jun 14, 2015 14:04 AM

      Ron….there is no solving this problem….all you can do is prepare and spread the word to your loved ones….go in peace and treat others the way you would like to be treated my brother.