Greetings from beautiful Belmont Park

It’s been six months since I’ve contributed and I decided I’d post.

I believe we are now approaching a critical juncture in these markets, all markets.

This will be my first and only post of 2015 (and perhaps for good.)

I must warn you it might be a little scathing.

Frankly I’m tired of all the self aggrandizing and the praise, especially when it is in no way merited or deserved.

I’m in a no nonsense frame of mind, and I am in a little seedy mood after all these market shenanigans.

When we left off in 2014 one of my New Years resolutions was to take a step back from the markets, avoid the day to day noise and divorce myself from the daily distractions.

That included this site.

Unlike most I kept my New Years resolution.

Honestly I grew weary of the barrage of opinions, chatter, rabbit trails, arguing and in fighting.

It was not productive for me, and if something is not productive I separate myself from it.

No reflection on you Al, but for me I needed a break from this.

Listening and reading this blog didn’t help me stay focused.

In contrast, it caused confusion and doubt, both success killers.

That said I focused on acquiring some horses and finishing my children’s stories.

I did listen to a few interviews here and there with the usual suspects and read some posts from the gallery. Nothing much.

That said I felt I might post something just to say hello.

However be forewarned, this might step on some people’s toes.

Let’s start with gold.

I posted unequivocally on this site that on Friday September 19th, 2014 that gold had bottomed at 1212.80.

Here is that post…

On September 19, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
James (the lesser) says:
On Friday September 19th,2014 shortly after 12:30pm eastern standard time the GOLD MARKET BOTTOMED AT $1212.80

And almost a whole year later we are still only a stones throw away from that bottom call.
That is the bottom zone of support.
Every time the price has fallen below this level it has been temporary and 1212 has been retaken.
The attacks have been less effective and shorter in duration.
I still stand by 1212 as the bottom zone of support.
This is the base level

I didn’t equivocate, I didn’t didn’t hedge like others, I didn’t throw in a few ifs and buts

Let’s switch gears for now…

It is time, high time, we add some candor when describing the record of these so called gurus.
It’s time to call some people out…
Remember I warned you I wasn’t going to make any friends here…

Let’s start with original jj
You really are starting to irritate me and grate on my nerves.
Why don’t you get a hobby or start a craft.
You have no credibility.
You were a big gold bull when I told you gold was in a bear a market.
Then you disappear for almost two years and then resurface as a gold bear.
Now you are just another momo following the obvious trend.
When the gold price turns you will once again get lost in the tall weeds, resurface a few years later and tell everyone you are a bull.
You have no credibility.

Chartster
You keep calling for this imminent gold collapse and every time it doesn’t happen you keep moving your goal posts.
For almost a year you have been calling for $500 gold.
Give up already

Matthew
You know your charts, you know the fundamentals, you understand the micro and macro picture.
What you don’t know is when to admit you were wrong.
All along instead of admitting gold was in a bear market you denied it for 4 years and a $700 haircut. You’ve twisted your charts into a pretzel to make your case.
Successful people know when to admit failure or mistakes.
I have made it clear I was wrong for not dumping my gold and silver in 2011
This was a huge mistake.
Rather than denying it I call it as I see and live with the consequences

Heavy Hitter
You come on, start shouting gold is going to the moon and then argue with anyone who doesn’t agree. You’re signal got its wires crossed and you are blown out of the water.
Let me know what you are going to do so I can do the opposite.

Gary
You are still a flip flop.
You have all these cycles crap and all the excuses when you are wrong.
If if and buts were candy and nuts oh what a party we’d have.
It is very convenient to say it is all manipulation and the fed when you are wrong.
Let me have your subscribers names, I have a bridge I want to sell them.
You have been totally wrong on the big moves.

Rick
I have to disagree completely with your 120 dollar call and $800 gold call.
Why would you want to believe the $ will go to 120?
They made it clear they will not tolerate a strong dollar.
And for the record the $ is not strong. It is just not as bad yet as the yen and euro.
How can you correctly call the Feds bluff on interests rates and then call for the $ to rise.
When they acknowledge they have no exit strategy the $ will tank again.
When the $ hit 100 all the siren calls came out for 120
As usual they called the top.
The party is over.
$800 gold is equally preposterous.
You are a deflationist who mistakenly thinks there will be a demand for $s
You are on the wrong side of history.
A fiat currency confidence collapse will not have people fleeing to the $
Just the opposite.
Not to mention to get an ounce of gold out of the ground is around $1200
$800 is an impossibility.
And just for the record your so called lettuce bin inflation is getting to be down right real inflation.
Chanterelle mushrooms used to cost about $21 a pound, now $35
Morel mushrooms used to be about $35, now $45
First of the season cherries used to be about $13, now $17
Passion fruit used to be $2.99 each, now $3.99
Almonds, Pistachios and Cashews are outrageous
Figs this year are running from $7 to $9 a bunch
Fillet Mignon, used to be $29 a pound, now $34 ditto Rack of Lamb
Dover Sole $45 a pound
Copper River Salmon last week $45 a pound
Eggplant Rollatini used to pay $5 each, now $7
Italian Cheesecake $30 for the cake
White grapefruit $1.25 each, now $1.75 each
Organic pure Concord grape juice, was $7, now$9
I can go on and on

I don’t buy crap!
You can get crap for cheap but the good stuff is expensive, and getting more,so everyday.

And not to mention everything else is going up
Stocks, Real Estate, Diamonds, Picasso’s, Art, Cars
Picasso sucks but I digress

Everything but gold and silver
You can’t have it both ways.
Your deflation call might be right in some textbook but in the real world inflation is everywhere
And they want and will get inflation if they have to burn the whole thing down.

I know you are high on bonds. IMHO you have to be crazy to buy a $ bond.
It is the worst investment you can make

Then there is this guy Avi who, whenever he is not patting himself on the back for how brilliant he is is calling for $1000 gold.
He never misses a chance to remind everyone how smart he is, how he called the top and how he called the correction.
He never mentions though he wasn’t smart enough to call the big move from $250 to $1900
If he was wasn’t smart enough then why would we think he is smart enough now?
$1000 gold will not happen

There are many people calling for $1000 gold.
They have been wrong
They will dig their heels in.
They know who they are and they know why they are doing it

Here is my position…
We are basing right underneath my zone of support of 1212.
We are nearer to the end of this correction then the beginning.
It could still take months for gold to turn upwards.
Some people might be tempted then to sit on the sidelines and be patient because of this.
Although this could be true my position is because these markets are so distorted gold could correct much higher at any time and without warning.
So while you might think the prudent thing is to sit and wait I caution this.
Load up now, and be in this market.
Yes it could take months, and you might think you were premature, however it could leave the station over night without you.
Your money might be dead for a while but the bottom is in.

Now we all know it is all about Janet Yellen and the Fed and will they raise interest rates.
Everyone knows it’s all about interest rates.
This is exactly what I said on the last day of the year, this was my last post of 2014…

On December 31, 2014 at 9:41 am,
James (the lesser) says:
Like I said I am not a trader. 99% of traders lose, why would I want to play that game?
But gold, hold gold, but not forever.
Why are people bashing gold at this point?
I will take a flat year considering the constant barrage of negative press and the constant assault.
Also after coming off of a an atrocious 2013 I think flat is decent enough.
However this is the year. No more excuses.
Filter out all the noise and focus on the main thing.
Nothing has really changed since 2008.
Ask yourself one thing – if the economy is as good as the mainstream media would have you believe than why can’t they raise interest rates?
I know I know it’s coming in 2015
Don’t go by what the fed says,cog by what they do
If Yellen is deluded enough to believe her own crap and raise rates the economy
will tank.
Interest rates are the key
Forget all the other noise.
I think the setup in gold is quite favorable right now
The time to sell was the failed 1800 third time, and the time to buy is this e d of year bottom of range 1200
The negativity in gold is very high right now.
Many people are tripping over themselves to call 1000 gold.
They are now committed to that
The base has been formed
The tide is turning
Don’t get caught off guard

So what I said back in December still holds true, interest rates are the key.
They cannot raise rates.
And just for the record even if they did it is not gold negative.
This is the bs propaganda they keep force feeding down everyone’s mouths to get them off gold
Real rates are all that matters, not nominal rates

Caution: we are now in a super stock bubble that is too big to pop
Janet Yellen and her comrades will not, cannot pop it
They can only throw more fuel on the fire.

A reporter, and I use that term loosely, asked Janet Yellen what she thought of her colleague Christine Lagaurde’s comments about not raising interest rates.

Let me make one thing clear.
Christine Lagaurde is not Janet Yellens colleague. She is her puppet master.

The $ will once again be sacrificed on the alter of wall st.
The $ collapsed with QE
Then Japan took the baton
Then Europe picked up the ball
Now it is back to the $

This goes back to how anyone in their right mind could expect the $ to go to 120
Whoever got you to believe that crap you should kick to the curb
The $ is toast

And then there’s that little issue of Greece.
And just for the record if anyone things a Greece exit will not cause major economic chaos you need to get your brain tuned up
Ultimately even the slowest among us will catch onto this fact.
Once that happens gold is off to the races.
And speaking of races I too am off to the races.
So it is time for me to get back to more important things

Agreed with Richard about the fact that Germany doesn’t want a stronger Euro as it will hurt their exports… but one KEY ELEMENT to watch for Germany and its exports competitiveness is not only the USD, but the JPY.
My 2cts.
LPG

Few countries can exist for long without a positive trade balance. Greece has about a $1.6 billion trade deficit per month, exports are about $2.1 billion and imports are about $3.7 billion. We can see how this equation cannot balance by austerity, but also cannot balance by government handouts.

U.S. trade deficit ( from a much larger economy) is $45 billion.

Greece has the same problems we have, however they cannot print Euro’s or dollars ( reserve currencies).

THE BOTTOM LINE IS…. IF YOU CANNOT PRINT A RESERVE CURRENCY, YOU NEED TO HAVE A POSITIVE TRADE BALANCE AND IMPORT THE RESERVE CURRENCY.

Greece’s economic structure is broken ( as U.S.), too many people are paid not to work, many of those that are working either do not pay taxes or cannot pay taxes. Human labor is too great a resource to not use.

Greece labor force participation is pitiful, 53%.
U.S. is still pitiful at 63%.

Keep in mind that U.S. reserve currency and the ability to print as much as they want is the only thing that separates U.S. from the greeks.

The bottom line is the Greeks will collapse, go through a decade or two of real pain, then restructure and emerge only after their trade balance stays positive.

Gary when Greece exist would tha make gold go up or down?
On one hand it’s flight to safety so it should go up but then again euro would get hit and that would mean dollar up which would mean gold down but then again maybe gold and dollar up in tandem. Any thoughts on this Gary?

I agree with James the lesser
Picassos suck.

I agree with you Gabriel, with the proviso that labor participation data for Greece is very difficult to measure correctly.(that is why the U.S. uses “non-farm” payroll data)
Greece still has a lot of family olive production and family farming.
Perhaps the most important aspect not reported on in this blog is the true political failure of democracy. The Greek government knows full well how to solve the current financial crisis, but it just cannot move in the direction of a solution without losing power.
The government KNOWS deficit spending must be narrowed. This can only be done by either raising taxation or reducing social spending. The Government knows, however, that if it tries to either cut social spending or raises taxes, it will be thrown out of power at the next election. So it does nothing.
Democracy has failed.
The problem, however, is that the decision to do nothing is not a good decision for the country; only a good decision for the politicians as they get to stay in power longer than they deserve.
Mathematically the deficit hole is so deep, the only possible solution (after kicking the can as long as they can get away with it) is to default on their debts.
It is possible, but unlikely that they will be allow to remain within the EU.
In my opinion the Greek government should be trying to negotiate to stay as a trading partner within the EU, but out of the Eurozone, and using their new currency.
Instead they seem to be negotiating to have Russia as a new patsy to finance their debt.

So bob and James are ignorant about Picasso!

BB, not bob…….I hate my IPads self-correction!

2015’s Trendless Markets Make It Hard For Investors – Seeking Alpha
Jun. 18, 2015

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3266965-2015s-trendless-markets-make-it-hard-for-investors?ifp=0

So when is my Bitcoin stock going to blast off?

Hi Gary,

What is the “Bleeze/Blease” Rating you mentioned? I tried to Google it, but apparently I’m not even close on the spelling. Thanks!

Blees rating. I think the website is closed but I programed the calculation into my COT spread sheet.

I just had an email from a friend that works at Google. He has been using satellite capability to monitor China behavior.

Here is a potentiality for a black swan event.

Sitting on the disputed Spratly Islands right now is a large ship.
Pennant number 999 would indicate that it is theJinggang Shan.
This is supposedly a Yuzhao class, type 071 Transport Dock, capable of carrying 600-800 troops, up to 20 combat vehicles, and 4 landing hovercraft. This ship has a large multi-landing helicopter-pad.
My friend also saw landing craft movement in the Bohai sea, which is near Taiwan.

I’m not reporting anything imminent; just that China is a long-term planner And this is the kind of behavior that might happen before an invasion of Taiwan.

James (The Lesser). Welcome back. Spot on with your points.

On June 18, 2015 at 10:46 am,
James (the lesser) says:
Greetings from beautiful Belmont Park

Greetings ?????????? Isn’t that swell !!!!!!!

GOLD AND $555 Trillion in Derivatives ……….and that is 700% of GDP. Gold going higher. Jmho……………..ootb

James the lessor. Thanks for the post. I agree if you want to drive yourself mad listen to these many wrong opinions that micro manage too much. I’m only interested in the big picture.
On gold, yes I thought we could go lower but in watching the stocks some have been resilient and resist a sell off when gold takes a temp plunge. I thing they are saying they don’t believe gold will head further south.
I’ve got a conference call set up with one of the best managers I know of. X Sprott. He keeps very quiet and has avoided the big crash and called for a major bear market in resources. That’s why I believe he left Sprott while their funds melted down over the years.
Any how very best of luck and I hope you continue to post but frankly I’m only read here one a week maybe. Found it to be a waist of very valuable time while all other assets are souring.