Doc continues with his outlook on the markets for summer
Doc is up with comments on the conventional markets, Gold, and the USD. He is not exactly in the same camp as Gary on everything.
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CFS; I really like hearing about other investment options. I’ve mentioned 3 awhile back and they’re all up in this market. I would love to hear your ideas and opinions. One of the three stocks I heard about on this forum.
ditto……on hearing about other investment options……
Humana, HUM, is probably going to be a buy soon.
BBP and HACK ARE NOT good buys at the moment, but will be in about 6 weeks,
Likewise SBIO, BBC, but these ETFs have potential.
I liked Electronic Arts, EA a few weeks ago.
CFS; technically, HUM has further to fall. HACK looks like it’s ready to consolidate sideways to down a little in a probable ongoing bull market. EA has a little furthur to run and then I would get careful. Of course, if the general market takes a dump here, the technicals on these stocks might change dramatically.
It’s all in the timing!
CFS I appreciate the other investment ideas, and it is part of staying diversified. Please keep posting your ideas as they are definitely appreciated.
Personally, I have discussed PGMs, Uranium, Fertilizers, Lithium, strategic metals, Solar, Water, Bonds, and currencies in my prior posts, and have had a few people respond that just wanted to play precious metals, but also many great conversations where others did have interest and we had some interesting discussions and shared helpful ideas.
There is a big world of investing out there, and nobody can track all of it, so if anyone has any great ideas, stock or ETF picks, or just something that we can flush out and analyze from different angles, it helps everyone be more well-informed.
For example, I have never heard of the ETF (HACK) until you just brought it up.
Thanks CFS!
It seems to me that pharma and bio areas have the best potential right now.
Banks look good, but are too dangerous until Greece shakes out.
If the Russian situation quietness down, I will look again there.
Once the dollar starts dropping, I will look at Australian mining shares again.
I like Australian shares, as they have dividends better than the US, but I’m not going to fight exchange rates. There also are several good Aus ETFs.
Quietness should be quietens
IPAD again
Do you ever use the Russian leveraged ETFs (RUSL) and (RUSS)?
As for the Australian miners, wouldn’t you say that due to the exchange rate that their costs have come down due to the higher US dollar? I can see where it would effect the dividends, but what about their profitability and revenues increasing lately? Michael Belkin had some good thoughts on the Australian miners, and I agree it has had some nice recoveries already. I also am watching some base metal producers (copper, tin, zinc) and uranium producers in Australia.
I’ve purchased the RSV in the past. Also, for you uranium fans; UEC just got crushed and is probably a buy in about 4 weeks.
Good thoughts on RSX as well Doc. I usually trade much shorter time intervals so I go with RUSL and RUSS, but they are exponentially more risk as well.
As for Uranium, I announced on the other board that that Energy Fuels officially acquired Uranerz. I held shares in both companies, and Energy Fuels soared today on the news and put me back in the profit zone. (half my shares the Uranerz ones are still held up in the merging new company). I’ll take some of my profits in this new combined company and move them over to UEC. I’ve been waiting for a good entry point, but feel it has been too overvalued, but a great one for the longer term.
Reposting from Gary’s blog:
Speaking of Commodities โ just a follow through the consolidation in the Uranium space. Energy Fuels officially acquired Uranerz Energy, giving it the lower cost insitu mining inputs, a combined number of 6 long term contracts averaging around $58 Uranium, and plenty of mines that are permitted and a huge resource and exploration profile making it the largest US producer in the space.
Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) -NYSE MKT
4.66 Up 0.50(12.02%) 4:02PM EDT
ENERGY FUELS CLOSES ACQUISITION OF URANERZ ENERGY
June 18, 2015
http://www.energyfuels.com/investors/press_releases/index.php?&content_id=323
Man you weren’t kidding Doc. Here is how UEC ended up today.
Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) ๎ฃ Watchlist
1.80 -0.62(-25.62%) AMEX – As of 4:05PM EDT
After Hours: 2.01 Up +0.21 (11.67%) 4:28PM EDT
It is a great company, with great assets and management, but it was getting a bit frothy. It did recover half of its 25.62% loss in afterhours with an 11.67 gain, but those are dramatic moves for sure. I wonder if since the uncertainty is now gone with Energy Fuels (UUUU) and Uranerz (URZ) if that took some of the wind out their sales, and moved it over to the now largest US producer = the new combined company keeping the name Energy Fuels?
Marin Katusa had made a good point about the bigger players in UEC for liquidity, but I expect the UUUU liquidity to greatly improve once all the merging is finished in peoples accounts by next week. Cameco is down quite a bit too, but looks ready for a bounce.
Sails not sales….but the new combined company may be taking some of their sales as well ๐
Also of note in the Uranium space – Ur-Energy (URG) in the US, just increased their reserves and had a nice little close today up 2.35% on the news and buy recommendation.
UR-Energy Inc. (URG) -NYSE MKT
0.87 Up 0.02(2.35%) 4:00PM EDT
Ur-Energy Started At Buy By H.C. Wainwright, Notes ‘Strong’ Uranium Project Pipeline
Jim Swanson , Benzinga Staff Writer Follow
June 19, 2015 8:27am
Doc – I figured out why UEC had a crash today. Apparently there was 3rd party that made allegations, which they deny, and it is now being checked out by the SEC. This probably explains why it rallied so hard in afterhours.
Here is a link to the article…..and remember everyone….fundamental news doesn’t matter (wink…wink….)
Uranium Energy Corp Responds to Unfounded Allegations
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1559243/uranium-energy-corp-responds-to-unfounded-allegations
No
This stock (UUUU) is finally getting re-rated by the marketplace.
Energy Fuels Set to Join the Russell 3000(R) Index.
Just a follow up a few days later for anyone that may read this concerning the Uranium discussion.:
I posted repeatedly at the end of last year that the Uranium market was going to rebound this year. After watching and trading in this space like a hawk since 2010 on the way up into 2011 (until the Fukushima disaster), and then swing trading select stocks on the way down for 4 years, it appeared both technically and fundamentally that the bottom was in at the end of 2014. I started acquiring stocks in quality companies like Uranerz, Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, and Uranium Energy Corp at the end of 2014 and posted semi-regularly about it.
Then in 2015, I spent a lot of time all year keeping people posted of the merger where Energy Fuels (UUUU) was acquiring Uranerz (URZ) for their low cost insitu Uranium mining. I highlighted the exchange rate for the shares at (.255) UUUU for every URZ share. My averaged price was down around $.98 in URZ. Yesterday when the shares switched over to $5.20 per UUUU share, I sold out of half of my position at the equivalent of $1.33 per share at a 35.7% gain in just the last 8 months! Anyone of you could have done the same thing. I was sharing these ideas, and hardly anyone gave a hoot or ever responded.
I kept the other half of the position as a long term hold in the bright future of Energy Fuels. If it dips some more I may purchase some more of the UUUU. I also am buying (URG) Ur-Energy and (UEC) Uranium Energy Corp on this dip where it got its clocked cleaned. I mentioned that (URRE) Uranium Resources, is also acquiring a Turkish insitu Uranium miner and I just bought a bunch at $1.09 yesterday. (DNN) Denison looks good here, as does Fission Uranium (FCUUF). There are tons of explorers that I also see as takeout candidates, and I’ve already posted about those before on this blog with minimal to no interest.
I guess I’m done posting on this site about Uranium, unless someone asks me directly about it, because anyone on this site could have made between 20-50% depending on what entry points you made into URZ converting to UUUU since the end of 2014 when it got down and touched $.88-$.89 several times. Even this year it was down below a buck at $.98-1.03 for a number of trading days during in mid-April, and I commenting to keep an eye on it, and that I was acquiring more shares for the June merger, as they were at a discount to value.
It doesn’t seem anyone is really interested in this space, or maybe they are too busy pontificating about the Greece and Euro situation (which makes you no money) to spend any time reading real analysis and trading info that I took the time to share. Since nobody seems to want to share anything back about Uranium, or Fetilzers, or Lithium, Specialty metals, or even PGM stocks,then I’m done posting this kind of info on this site.
I guess I’ll still share ideas on stocks I am watching in the PMs since we usually have a people that actually like to shelve all political viewpoints and talk actual trading and stock picks once in a while. However, people could be a little more polite and civil in their responses to information, news releases, or charts posted. Sometimes people are so willing to just trash talk the economist or newsletter writer, or Kitco, or the fundamental drivers that may have changed on a property, that they miss the forest due to one tree. If you crap all over anything that someone shares repeatedly, then they’ll just quit sharing. Just a thought.
Good luck to everyone in their trading!
Correction; RSX, not RSV.
Cory you should look into improving the audio..
thanks
A good website produced in Toronto. Investor Intel:
(Formatting on this website awful)
Excellent show. Doc I really appreciate your outlook and concur with much of what you stated today. Maybe we are on the same wavelength lately.
Bird, that worries me—-actually, I believe some of your recent calls are right on. I didn’t mention it but the US bond market will rally here a little in the near future. That should make Rick a little happy. However, with what is happening globally, we’re starting to finally see a transition in these markets. It won’t happen overnight but I feel good about where the PMs are currently—-we have more consolidation in the PMs and the stocks going forward but 2016 will be the year of transition.
Thanks Doc. Don’t worry too much though. Mostly we are alone with regards to the dollar, long bond and even metals most days so its not like the trade will be too crowded!
You still watching Teck (TCK) by the way. It’s lost another third its stock value since the subject came up last fall and briefly spiked as low as 10.00 (currently trading 10.92) after a two and a half percent drop today.
Anyway….long story short…..I am more sure than ever it will retrace to its 2009 low near five dollars which is a massive decline since its peak at 55. I probably mentioned it before but TCK is one of my proxy’s on gold and by watching that particular company I am trying to time a close entry into the bottom.
And an excellent entry into Teck of course. It’s P/E should start turning around once the bottom finally arrives in base metals.
Birdman – I am keeping my eye on Teck Resources (TCK) as well and expect it to bottom with the commodities over the next few months. Vale (VALE) is in the exact same boat. I plan on picking up shares of both in Aug/Sept timeframe.
Yep, bird; I’m still watching TCK—keep reminding me though every 2-3 months so I don’t miss the bottom.
Lots of write downs there but they are pretty optimistic about earnings next year. So sure, I will get it on my radar too. Any others you are watching similar to these two?
Thompson Creek which has further to fall. They’re starting to get their house in order but it will take time. Their symbol is TC. I’m also watching RIC which I owned earlier and it almost tripled. It’s pulling back and the best time to purchase it technically will be at the end of July or early August. I’m waiting for Klondex to head south along with kirkland and oceana. Also waiting for a further pullback on NG–novagold. I also like AUQ which is merging in the future with Alamos. AUG is in the process of pulling back and will pull back to the lower bb of the monthly chart. I’ll add a little there.
Bird, I’m also waiting to purchase HL, PAAS, EXK. Also CDE—-most of them silver plays.
Doc, I am watching every single company you just listed in those 2 posts, and that is a very good list of some of my prime targets to acquire on pullbacks. Excelsior!
I already took my profits in AuRico, Klondex, and Hecla. I also want a pullback in Guyana Gold, but it has been on such a tear, I’ll have to wait a bit longer. Same thing for Lake Shore Gold….also been on a tear.
One other company I recommend watching during this late summer for a position is Argonaut Gold. It is waayy undervalued at present…… just like McEwen Mining.
I might mention the COT and commercial report for the metals. Further improvement for the PMs. It was minor this week but I believe it’ll continue to improve over the next few weeks. The change for gold was slightly net long and also silver which was better then gold. We have a ways to go before they signal a bullish turn.
yep. Maybe we get a little bump before the slump.
GPL – Great Panther Silver kicked out of GDXJ.
Might present an opportunity next week?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPL
22% single day decline? Ouch, that had to hurt. But would you buy it now Irwin?
If it diddles around here for a few days, I might be tempted to buy a little. But it certainly isn’t one that I’ve wanted to own.
Awhile back I bought some GPL and when the technicals turned sold it. Thank goodness. I’ll be watching the stock carefully and feel it may be a better purchase down the road.
I had it at one time but not lately. Guess you can’t say it doesn’t have a discount built in at these prices so I am going to put it back on the radar I think.
TCK is one of those stocks that will tell us the bottom of the commodities sector. Looking at the monthly shows it should tell us by the end of the year.
Exactly my thinking.
If the gambling mood hits me, would likely be wiser just to buy GDXJ.
GPL actually fell 33% today but jumped over 20% in after hours trading. I dumped it in 2011 and have not been tempted to buy it back. Even now, it is still not all that cheap. Book value is 35 cents but its price to sales is appealing at 1.34 (according to Yahoo Finance).
Matthew – I don’t have the right kind of account to do multiple stock overlays on the same chart from stockcharts.com. Do you have a way of laying out a 5 year chart on the following companies all on the same chart?
– Great Panther
– Aurcana
– Alexco
– First Majestic
– Americas Silver Corp
– Endeavour Silver
– Excellon
– Fortuna Silver
– Santa Cruz Silver
– Hecla
– Avino Silver and Gold
It would be curious to see how they all performed against each other Since the 2011 peak in Silver.
Also, can we add Mandalay Resources to that multiple stock overlay chart if it is possible?
I figured out how to get Mandalay on the chart using the Canadian ticker.
Hecla still outperformed the last 200 days.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?AG,FSM,HL,PAAS,CDE,SSRI,TAHO,FNLPF,DBEXF,MND.TO#
It may not be possible though to put that many on the same chart. If there is a limit, then we could do small producers versus the mid-tiers:
Small Producers:
– Great Panther
– Aurcana
– Alexco
– Americas Silver corp
– Santa Cruz silver
Mid-Tier Silver producers:
– First Majestic
– Hecla
– Fortuna
– Endeavour Silver
– Excellon
– Mandalay
– Avino
Would that be possible to plot out using the weekly chart for the last 5 years?
You mean something like this?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=1&dy=22&id=p00338062768
I chose the week silver peaked as the starting point.
I think I figured out how to post it if this link is visible to you. Based on this my favorite silver miner, Hecla, came out on top. Not a surprise, but GPL and AXU were in similar company. I canโt get stock charts to find Mandalay. Sorry CFS!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GPL,AUNFF,AXU,HL,SMNPF,SZSMF,FSM,ASM,AG,EXK,EXLLF#
Here is a different composite showing First Majestic, Fortuna, Hecla, Pan American Silver, Couer D Alene, Silver Standard Resources, Tahoe Resources, Fresnillo, and Silver Wheaton.
Hecla came out on top on this list as well. Just sayin’ it’s been rather strong. As a side note, Hecla also just acquired Revett Mining this week – a wise acquistion.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?AG,FSM,HL,PAAS,CDE,SSRI,TAHO,FNLPF,DBEXF,SLW#
OK – I apologize as this is the first time I’ve attempted these composite charts and the last one was only for 200 days. Here is an update with the following companies (Great Panther Silver, Aurcana, Alexco, Hecla, Americas Silver Corp, Fortuna, Avino Silver & Gold, First Majestic, and Endeavour Silver) for the max time I could get of 819 days…..
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GPL,AUNFF,AXU,HL,SMNPF,SZSMF,FSM,ASM,AG,EXK,EXLLF#
Shoot…. it didn’t keep those presets and just posted the same one. Well if you right click on the 200 days bar at the bottom, and select “All” you’ll get an 819 day chart that is more accurate.
Here is a different attempt at bar charts for 819 days from 2012 showing the decrease in the miners. It looks right on my screen, but here goes:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GPL,AUNFF,AXU,HL,SMNPF,SZSMF,FSM,ASM,AG,EXK,EXLLF#
nevermind. I can’t get the charts to post the same even though I am trying to create a linkable version. Just click on the “bar icon” to the left or the “line chart” icon to toggle back and forth between them.
Cheers!
Last chart of the day featuring: Scorpio, Mag Silver, Minco, Alexco, Silvercorp, Trevali, Mirasol, Impact Silver, Santacruz, Sierra Metals.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SMNPF,MVG,MISVF,AXU,SVM,TV.TO,MRZ.V,IPT.V,SCZ.V,SMT.TO#
Yes I have a position in GPL, and got stung by this crazy move today.
What is insane is the move from the $.47-.48 range all day…. then a surge up to $.54 at 3:50 pm and then down to close at $.37 into the close and afterhours.
What a friggin’ roller-coaster……..Ouch…..
I still think it is a well run company, with 2 operating mines and good base metal credits, and a 3rd mine ready to go, plus a nice production profile. I almost sold it when it got up over $.50 but when it went to $.5375 I held on for a little bit more, and then it sank like a stone. Whoops!!
Shad, I agree with your comments about the mines and feel from a fundamental standpoint it has promise.
Yes fundamentally, I am not concerned at all. Once Silver is back to $18-$19, like Alexco, they’ll be doing just fine. However, in the short term, today did some significant chart damage. If it stays down or heads down further, I may average down into it in late July/early August.
Good idea—-that’s probably when I’ll take a position in the stock.
I went from hero to zero in 10 minutes today ๐
one day doesn’t make a market though, and I’ve been in and out of this stock for 7 years. I like their assets and cost reductions more than ever, and they just made a nice qcquisition, but I don’t like this price action happening in the summer doldrums, as it may prolong the downturn. We’ll see how next week goes.
Anybody want to take a stab at this closing candlestick today in GPL for Monday?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p64260254251
Shad,
Hope all’s well.
Given today’s move, I would suspect SSR is on.
So there are 2 ways I would play it:
1) long WO @ open for a bounce – particular attention to 30cts, 25cts or even 20cts for bottom.
Quick trade – w. res likely @ today’s close of 32cts. Not a trade to fall in love with.
2) morning pop with res. at $0.40-0.42. -> get out if cannot BO that level, especially if lower highs occur intraday following the potential pop at the open.
Disclaimer: don’t construe this as trading/investment advice ! ๐
My 2cts.
Best to you as always,
LPG
Thanks LPG. Those are both good scenarios to consider for Monday. This stock suddenly got dramatic on me, and while I don’t have a huge position in it, I don’t enjoy losing money.
Normally I have my game on, but this one actually caught me by surprise. The surge up and waterfall declined happened suddenly in the last 10 minutes of trading on about 40 times the normal volume! I’ll admit when I mess up, and had the option to sell over $.50+, considered it, and held on looking for something over $.55-$.57 as a sell target.
There are better stocks I could deploy the funds into, and I could come back when the silver prices improve. Fundamentally, I’m a fan of the assets, mines, exploration targets, the improved production and operational metrics, they don’t have any debt, increased their credit facility, and just made a good acquisition. However, technically, it just got trashed and I’m not sure it is worth hanging onto the position I have for the short term. My belief is that we are going to have seasonal and technical weakness in the silver market in later June and July, so the losses may get extended.
On Monday, I am curious as to whether it will be a morning pop or deep dive down, and I’ll have to mull it over once I see how the pre-markets are setting up.
Good thoughts as per usual LPG. Thanks for taking the time to respond.
Today’s Volume: 24,588,777
Avg Vol (3 months daily average): 603,009
That had to be a big hedge fund unloading a position, and then it tripped the sell stops all the way down. So there is over a 20% surge up, and then a 33% decline in the last 10 minutes of trading on (40 times the volume), and then a 21% reversal back up in after-hours trading.
0.32 Down 0.16(33.29%) Jun 19, 4:07PM EDT
After Hours : 0.3890 Up 0.07 (21.56%) Jun 19, 6:30PM EDT
That IKN dude doesn’t like GPL much:
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2015/04/great-panther-silver-gprto-gpl-1q15.html
Oops, meant to put this one up:
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-numbers-show-why-great-panther.html
He did make a good point about the Amorts+Deprec not being highlighted as predominantly, but he clearly has a jaded downside bias and sounds like a hater.
Oh he makes his living being a “hater” (I prefer S.O.B.), but he gets a few things right.
When I said he gets a few things right, I was speaking generally. I wasn’t referring to the this conversation.
Yes, cash flow is king in most situations (where applicable) as LPG says. That’s why I bought a lot of Primero Mining in 2012 and highlighted here that it was a cash cow.
I like specs like IPT, first and foremost for their potential assets in the ground (exploration upside) and their ability to fund their exploration without debt or dilution (most of the time).
I like companies like SPM for the inevitable revaluation of already proven assets in the ground as well as future cash flow.
The greatest and quickest gains are likely to come from companies that have a lot of “at or near the money” ounces in the ground. In other words, assets (ore bodies) that are uneconomic or barely economic today but will be very valuable with even a modest rise in the price of the metal.
The high quality, high cash flow situations lack this “optionality” so are not my favorite plays at the bottom of a big bad bear. They will be much more appealing later. At the other end of the risk spectrum, the same goes for the pure explorers. Why accept the opportunity cost and risk when the aforementioned assets in the ground will act like discoveries as they go from no value to a lot of value virtually overnight?
Very good thoughts Matthew, and yes, I am also looking at the same thing with smaller producers that are near break even, but will have a huge surge in a recovering metal price environment “overnight”. The explorers will still need funding, drilling, analyzing drill holes, etc… before they can even prove if they have an economic deposit. I’d rather have immediate upside to recovering prices and that is why I like Americas Silver mining, Alexco, and Great Panther. At $18-$19 all 3 will have a radical re-rating.
Yes, I responded below with the actual facts from their 1st quarter press release showing they grew their revenues nicely, and improved metrics in almost every area. I’ll take the facts over some dudes opinion any day.
On the bright side, that guy had some nice things to say about IMPACT Silver:
“It’s small, mines its deposit reasonably well, has a decent reputation with the local community and treats its workforce correctly. It’s also survived over the medium-term without diluting its share count much (January 2007 was 40.3m, today it’s 68.2m, the difference was raising for capex purposes and was non-dilutive at the time) so it shows the right signs of trying to take care of its stakeholders, wherever they may be.”
Impact Silver is on my watchlist, but I haven’t ever taken a position in it…..but if this one guy likes it then I’ll run out and buy some right away ๐
I have to say, of all the miners that I’ve signed-up for email alerts, IPT is the only one in which a human being replied and thanked me for my interest. The rest were either automated or did not reply at all. That little touch is consistent with my very positive perception of the company’s management.
Well I value you opinion on mining companies much more than the douche at IKN.
Actually, he does NOT recommend owning IPT or probably any similar miner. You aren’t the only one that doesn’t like him, that’s for sure. On a personal level I don’t like him either.
Btw, I am not a subscriber of his and never have been.
No problem. I believe in gathering intel from everywhere, but just the tone of both the articles today and reading a few of the other posts on his site gave me all I need to know about his position. He probably has a Mike Stathis poster on his wall from Ava Research. ๐
D&A means nothing on a cash perspective…
Gotta laugh at anyone who throws this on the PM space…It’s like looking at the net income line in some cases… only beginners do this…
Cash flow baby, cash flow… ca$h flo$….
Best to all,
LPG
I completely agree LPG. It is all about cash flow, but I did see what the guy was griping about considering how the D&A wasn’t being accounted for in the traditional way. He did seem to still not give these metrics much credence:
-Revenues increased 57% to $20.3 million;
-All-in sustaining cost per silver payable ounce (โAISCโ) decreased 39% to US$14.47
-Net income totalled $3.6 million, compared to a net loss of $0.6 million;
Personally, when I look at their numbers for the 1st quarter I posted, they look far more impressive than most of the mining companies in the sector and have really shown improvement…..But hey, if the marketplace doesn’t think so, then it appears I’m the one who is wrong.
Overall I had a good day with several nice increases in Uranium stocks, some energy stocks, some speculative explorers, and a some various ETFs, but this move was so extreme it just was odd.
BTW, here’s the metric on their cashflow for the 1st quarter 2015 compared to Q1 in 2014:
Cash flow from operating activities, before changes in non-cash net working
capital (โNCWCโ), amounted to $4.8 million compared to $0.6 million.
Matthew – did you see either of my questions to you above or below about the potential of doing a composite 5 year weekly chart with 10 silver stocks on it overlaid? I don’t have an account where I can do it with stockcharts.com but figured you did. No big deal if you can’t, but I thought I’d ask the charting ninja.
I put up a chart above. I don’t know if it’s what you had in mind. Here it is again:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=1&dy=22&id=p00338062768
I think I figured out how to post it if this link is visible to you. Based on this my favorite silver miner, Hecla, came out on top. Not a surprise, but GPL and AXU were in similar company. I can’t get stock charts to find Mandalay. Sorry CFS!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GPL,AUNFF,AXU,HL,SMNPF,SZSMF,FSM,ASM,AG,EXK,EXLLF#
On the other hand Shad, Mandalay is up 355% (CDN) since the middle of 2010 while Hecla is down 32% (U.S.).
Well, I am going to have to give you and CFS the “Silver Star” for that stock pick ๐
I am confused by those stats though, because (again I can’t get it to pull in stockcharts.com) but here is the max chart from Yahoo, and it still looks like it fell in price the last few years, but not as bad as most – that’s for sure.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MNDJF+Interactive#{“showBollinger”:true,”range”:”5y”,”allowChartStacking”:true}
I still think that compared to the other 9 companies on the composite chart I posted that Hecla did pretty good compared to it’s peers.
Here is a different composite showing First Majestic, Fortuna, Hecla, Pan American Silver, Couer D Alene, Silver Standard Resources, Tahoe Resources, Fresnillo, and Silver Wheaton.
Hecla came out on top on this list as well. Just sayinโ itโs been rather strong. As a side note, Hecla also just acquired Revett Mining this week โ a wise acquistion.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?AG,FSM,HL,PAAS,CDE,SSRI,TAHO,FNLPF,DBEXF,SLW#
More importantly, to me, is how a spec does in a bull run. In that late 2010 blast higher, HL went up 157% from trough to peak. Mandalay went up 325% and AXU went up 217% (before dipping and heading even higher).
If we start at the 2008 crash lows, Hecla went up more than 10 fold and Mandalay went up almost 36 fold. Considering the respective volumes at the lows, I would say that they were not really so far apart, but Mandalay still offered a lot more potential for the smart small investor.
I’m sold on Mandalay. You and CFS have presented plenty of good information to me, I like that they have a dividend, and you are exactly correct that in a bull market, it will have more torque to the upside. That’s why I am in the miners in first place instead of IBM or McDonalds ๐
I appreciate the comparisons during different periods Matthew, and regardless of the people giving you a hard time lately, just know your insights are appreciated.
OTTO von Grumpy hardly ever has anything good to say about gold juniors; having never subscribed to his newsletter, I don’t know what he tells subscribers. However, this public post from April was enough for me to put GPL on my “ignore” list.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2015/04/great-panther-silver-gprto-gpl-1q15.html
Well if you read that editorial, it points out that they did have 5-6 record metrics in the 1st Quarter, but in this depressed Silver pricing metal environment they still struggled a bit. I don’t completely agree with the views in the article though Irwin, because they said they didn’t produce anything profitably, but check out their increases in revenue.
Here is the data directly off their 1st Quarter press release, and they have made strives to improve almost every metric. Again, once the silver price improves back up to $18-$19 then their current production will put them in a very profitable situation.
Highlights compared to first quarter 2014 (“Q1 2014”), unless otherwise noted
Record metal production of 987,887 Ag eq oz, representing a 48% increase and driven primarily by the addition of production from San Ignacio;
San Ignacio production increased by 164,982 Ag eq oz, to 217,429 Ag eq oz;
Silver production increased 61% to a new quarterly record of 597,111 silver ounces;
Gold production increased 28% to 4,703 gold ounces;
Cash cost per silver payable ounce decreased 35% to US$8.71;
All-in sustaining cost per silver payable ounce (“AISC”) decreased 39% to US$14.47
Revenues increased 57% to $20.3 million;
Net income totalled $3.6 million, compared to a net loss of $0.6 million;
Adjusted EBITDA was $3.7 million compared to negative $0.5 million; and,
Cash flow from operating activities, before changes in non-cash net working
capital (“NCWC”), amounted to $4.8 million compared to $0.6 million.
Highlights compared to fourth quarter 2014 (“Q4 2014”), unless otherwise noted
Metal production on a Ag eq oz basis increased 8%;
Cash cost per silver payable ounce decreased 29% and AISC decreased 32%;
Revenues increased 42%;
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.7 million compared to negative $1.2 million;
Cash flow from operating activities, before changes in NCWC, improved by $6.1 million;
Cash and cash equivalents were $18.7 million at March 31, 2015 compared to $18.0 million at December 31, 2014; and,
Net working capital increased to $36.9 million at March 31, 2015 from $32.9 million at December 31, 2014.
How many other miners in gold or silver out of the hundreds and hundreds listed had these kinds of improvements year over year?
I just checked the compensations of these guys—-from my viewpoint a little hefty. Heck, Al must be a piker since he doesn’t pay me that kind of moola—in fact, before anyone doesn’t see the sarcasm, he doesn’t pay me anything. He did give me some free golf balls once.
Good point Doc on the management compensation.
Way to go on the free golf balls!
Richard,
If he paid you in golf balls… that’s a payment in kind. And if Al signed the balls, this MIGHT even increase the value of your gift.
Bottom line: you should FULLY disclose these gifts on the site when they occur – just to be fully transparent. ๐ ๐ ๐
Just my 2 cts.
Swing them Richard, Swing them ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
Best,
LPG
Not going to argue about GPL one way or the other, ’cause it makes no difference to me.
How has it performed against others in the sector?
There must be a reason why it’s priced where it is.
Wasn’t trying to argue, I thought we were discussing the article you posted from Otto Von Grumpy, and I was supplying the facts from their actual 1st quarter press release, not his opinions.
As for how GPL stacks up to the other silver producers in the sector, it is about the same as all of them. Pull up charts for First Majestic, Endeavour, Excellon, Alexco, Santa Cruz, or Aurcana. They all look about the same to me.
And that can be a good thing sometimes when they get in sync.
Agreed Birdman.
If you think gpl stacks up other silver producers, you are looking at the wrong silver producers.
Compare it with MND.TO
which has a P/E of 13 and a 4% dividend.
I asked Matthew up above if he had a way to do a 5 year chart from the 2011 during the silver highs to present day on about 10 different companies. It would be interesting to see all those companies posted on the same chart so we could see how they all stack up relative to one another.
I actually just counted and have 46 Silver stocks or ETFs on my watchlist, and I’d say GPL is par for the course – better than some, worse than others.
As mentioned below I think Mandalay is a great pick CFS. The dividend is nice as well.
Apples and oranges for sure guys. Mandalay is superior in every way if safety matters most (my opinion). But it is unlikely to deliver moves like Alexco will when silver gets going. (Of course, the same is true on the downside!)
Matthew did you see my post above: I’ll just repost it:
Matthew โ I donโt have the right kind of account to do multiple stock overlays on the same chart from stockcharts.com. Do you have a way of laying out a 5 year chart on the following companies all on the same chart?
– Great Panther
– Aurcana
– Alexco
– First Majestic
– Americas Silver Corp
– Endeavour Silver
– Excellon
– Fortuna Silver
– Santa Cruz Silver
– Hecla
– Avino Silver and Gold
– Mandalay Resources
It would be curious to see how they all performed against each other Since the 2011 peak in Silver.
It may not be possible though to put that many on the same chart. If there is a limit, then we could do small producers versus the mid-tiers:
Small Producers:
– Great Panther
– Aurcana
– Alexco
– Americas Silver corp
– Santa Cruz silver
Mid-Tier Silver producers:
– First Majestic
– Hecla
– Fortuna
– Endeavour Silver
– Excellon
– Mandalay
– Avino
Would that be possible to plot out using the weekly chart for the last 5 years?
I think I figured out how to post it if this link is visible to you. Based on this my favorite silver miner, Hecla, came out on top. Not a surprise, but GPL and AXU were in similar company. I canโt get stock charts to find Mandalay. Sorry CFS!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GPL,AUNFF,AXU,HL,SMNPF,SZSMF,FSM,ASM,AG,EXK,EXLLF#
Here is a different composite showing First Majestic, Fortuna, Hecla, Pan American Silver, Couer D Alene, Silver Standard Resources, Tahoe Resources, Fresnillo, and Silver Wheaton.
Hecla came out on top on this list as well. Just sayinโ itโs been rather strong. As a side note, Hecla also just acquired Revett Mining this week โ a wise acquistion.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?AG,FSM,HL,PAAS,CDE,SSRI,TAHO,FNLPF,DBEXF,SLW#
Last chart of the day featuring: Scorpio, Mag Silver, Minco, Alexco, Silvercorp, Trevali, Mirasol, Impact Silver, Santacruz, Sierra Metals.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SMNPF,MVG,MISVF,AXU,SVM,TV.TO,MRZ.V,IPT.V,SCZ.V,SMT.TO#
Mandalay MND.TO is my second biggest silver mining holding after SLW, and it is about to have a golden cross on the daily chart. I have held it for several years, through ups and downs simply because I believe in its low profile management.
Yes CFS – You were the one that got me watching Mandalay, and they’ve held up better than most, but the direction for most of the Silver miners has still been down for the last 2 years. However, recently, since early April, Mandalay has been clawing it’s way back up. It has shown some real strength considering the silver prices.
Good pick CFS!
I’m not proud of holding SLW FOR MORE THAN A DECADE, WATCHING IT GO UP BY A FACTOR 6 or7 to $40 and then back down to $10
SLW is good for the long term though, and it got punished harder than the other Gold streamers (Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, Sandstorm Gold). Silver outperforms on the upside and the downside, but I love the streaming business model, and Silver Wheaton will rake it in over the next few years.
I stand corrected. Actually Sandstorm Gold performed the worst over the last 200 days.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SLW,RGLD,FNV,SAND,OKSKF#
I did like RGLD best out of the gold streamers, but they got a bit over anxious about 3 or 4 years ago and struck some not so good deals compared with earlier ones.
I still hold FNV, SAND, RGLD and some royalty companies.
Thanks CFS. For the record, I believe Sandstorm has the most room for a percentage gain.
Also, I don’t know if you saw Matthews comments up above on Mandalay, but between his research and yours, I’m sold that I need a position in it. I can’t get it to pull in stockcharts.com, only in Yahoo and my Scottrade account. Check out some of Matthews stats above on Mandalay. Very impressive and I know it will put a grin on your face. ๐
It’s also nice to get exposure to Australia, Chile, and Sweden. Most who visit this site are probably overweight Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.
Thanks to Shad, CFS, Matthew and Doc for their briefs on the gold/silver juniors. Very interesting.
I am completely out of the market right now, the opportunity to lose just looks to all encompassing to me. I’ve seen people get wiped out real fast because they get over extended and refused to look in the mirror. The real estate market here in 1990 crashed and left many broken marriages and this time it will be the grand daddy of them all. DT
Just wait until the broken dreams gets going in earnest once the Toronto bubble really deflates DT. All those fools who locked in at the peak won’t b having children until their middle Fourties, if ever. Talk about a sacrifice. They traded the chance of home ownership for their right to have families and now they will just grow old with mortgage debt that is an endless onslaught on their monthly salaries until they grow too old to reproduce…..oh wait….it’s different in Toronto.
This long term outlook projection is better than comments on meandering daily adjustments, but the general market direction is only one small part of investment strategy.
Stock picking and fundamental analysis is very important.
I commented on big pharma last winter as a highly prospective group. e.g. BBP and other ETFs.
Earlier I had commented on medical marijuana stocks, which are now shaking out into viable investment potential.
Then a few months ago I mention Internet security and suggested HACK ETF.
Some commented I should get off the blog or only talk about metals and metal stocks, so I reduced my comments by trying to stay only on topic.
I still think you confine yourself too much, but I still love silver, even if it is bulky to store.
I will be buying some more kilo bars or 100 oz bars next month.