We focus on gold today
Gary Savage kicks off the day with a discussion focusing on gold.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Then next support below that in GDXJ would be the $20.68 March low, and then Rick’s target of $19.75. But for now, pop goes the miners…..but tread cautiously.
Silver reversal triangle still alive. I’m calling it right here: we won’t see silver sub $15.45 for the rest of our lives. 🙂
wowzers. That’s a bold call spanky : – )
I’m thinking we may get back into the $14’s in mid-late July, but would love it if you were correct. Cheers!
How long are you intending living for spanky 🙂
Lol.
No one is expecting anything from silver except a major breakdown. It has the potential to shock everyone.
Silver can be a shocker. That’s for sure Spanky. It’s the restless metal.
I sure hope you guys are right about a silver drop below $15.5, because that is the price I’ve decided to buy a whole bunch of 100 oz bars.
In the mid to long term that’s an excellent price to buy Silver. Silver will be back over $19 by next year, but in the short term I’m still waiting to see if it will retest the $14’s.
Have a great holiday weekend sir.
It definitely does, Spanky!
“It has the potential to shock everyone”
Was that a joke that combined physics and finance?
(Silver is the most conductive of all metals)
good point : – )
Funny one Bob UK.
Hope all’s well.
LPG
Spanky
Old Saying of Wise Old ‘In’jun’:
” Never say never ” 😉
—LFP
Audio quality is poor. Looking at 1110 for possible bounce. If it breaks 1090 – there is nothing but air. Up 15% in the last month trading DGLD.
DGLD has been the right call since mid-May, and I should have done the same. I sold most of my mining positions in early May, but didn’t get on the shorting bandwagon with DGLD or JDST or DUST.
Only mining stock I owned was GDX and sold when it was over $60 (thank gawd). If I was smart I would of putted the crap out of GDX right after I sold. Instead starting investing in defense, consumer staples and health care dividend stocks.
Yep. You also could have rode the EFT (DUST) downwards from that level and made a fortune. I did on the Jrs. for small swing trades using (JDST), but also played the counter-trend rallies using (JNUG). I know some others on here that like that trade as well : – )
Sorry, that was confusing: You could have rode the price of GDX down using the ETF (DUST) from that level, and made a fortune in DUST not GDX.
*There are some good charts on each of the metals that you can “tab” through at the bottom, with Jim’s annotations for the technical indicators he sees.
*Also – there are 4 good hyperlinked articles on the following technical analysis tools embedded in this article. They are very well written.
Thursday’s Charts for Gold, Silver and Platinum and Palladium, July 2
Thursday July 02, 2015 12:03
There are 4 good hyper-linked articles on the following technical analysis tools embedded in the article linked above. They are very well written.
Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Using Bollinger Bands
Sharpening Your Trading Skills: The MACD Indicator
Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Moving Averages
Sharpening Your Trading Skills: The Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Also, on the stock market, the infamous chart showing that the S&P tracks the fed’s balance sheet nearly perfectly is still alive and kicking (of course it can oscillate above and below a little bit). The Fed’s balance sheet topped out in December ’14. I do not believe we will see new all time highs on the S&P until the Fed cranks up QE again.
Final thought, unless Japan or the EU crank up their respective QEs even more, which I doubt, I have a very very hard time seeing the dollar rally. I admit, however, that from a technical perspective the USD looks like it is merely consolidating for another leg up on the weekly chart.
I will believe a rate hike when I see it. The shysters at the fed have been talking about rate hikes for what, 5 or 6 YEARS. And the ever elusive “second half recovery”, what a joke.
spanky suggest you read & digest the zero hedge piece today on goldman & greece & draghi
EU is cranking the qe out to the lenders…..
Yeah, saw the article, haven’t read it though. I still believe a sharp drop in the stock market will spark QE in the US.
I think QE is triggered by possibility of defaults, which hurts banks or government, such as mortgage defaults, student loan default, treasury default, etc. Economy is an excuse only, otherwise they will not pay bank interest for parking the money in the FED. Think about it! Parked money does nothing to improve the economy but add liquidity to the banks balance sheet. FED’s boss is elites not general public.
Dropping in stock may or may not trigger QE depending it hurts banks or not.
Oh no! My JDST engine is sputtering, losing altitude! Ahhhhhhh!!!
Yeah I wondered about that when GDXJ took off this morning. Fly well Jason!
Gary,
Really good thoughts today. If HUI hits 50 and GDXJ hits 12 ? OMG…talk about licking the chops…!!
Under the environment that governments are suppressing gold price, most mines have to lose money until official sector dumping is over. We just don’t know when. If it lasts longer than most miners can tolerate, we get into bankruptcy phase. A lot of these shares will go to 0 and stay there forever. Do we know which ones? I don’t know and hope my are the more solid companies. So my position are more metals than miners.
Metal will always be worth something but paper burns.
yep… or as some say….yup.
Yes, paper burns
Lawrence, wiseguy never said anything about buying at the top, he said the same reasons have been givin from $1800.
He then asks a good question, who is smarter? the person giving he reason or the bankster?
Not popular around here, but even a suggestion that gold could drop never has been.
Metal that’s worth “something” and metal that’s worth over $1000 per ounce is a big difference. I’d be content with a burnable paper stock certificate of one share of Berkshire Hathaway over one ounce of gold any day!
Surely y’all aren’t younger than me, right? When I was looking at a pound of gold on the newly created eBay at over $100 and thinking, that would be cool to buy. Why is it a much better buy now at $1170? Perception… and your perception is in the minority. Who is to say that it won’t drop all the way down to those prices? There are answers that we could all give, but we have given those reasons all the way down from $1800. A fool and his gold are soon parted. Now we just have to figure out who is the bigger fool: us or the banksters?
Good point Wiseguy.
Looks like we are on our way to about $1000, from there we will know more in a week or two, as they say.
I still think China increases buying at that point but we will see.
Dent could yet be proven correct, especially with that temple gold coming to market.
Heck, Hudas may still be proven “not insane”.
“A fool and his gold are soon parted.”
I would be more inclined to say, “A fool and his gold are inseparable”.
I’m pretty much proof of that!
No, you can’t have my gold.
Since you are a wiseguy, I would like to ask you why you are so obsessed with buying at the top. I think the above 1800 price for gold only lasted a couple of month max, you have to be very precise to buy it there. I am not Aware anyone here who bought most of his gold at that level. I did not buy any. If you know one, please let me know. If one buys at 1800 and sell at 1100s, he is a fool. As for paper and gold, it all depends on the period you are in. You should always own some gold in case something goes wrong. Now we are in an uncharted territory, disaster could happen a lot easier . By disaster I include high inflation. Just look at ZIRP for over 6 years and we have had 3 QE. It is absolutely unprecedented. It means something wrong with the system. Something very wrong. The other argument you have is the price may go lower but it may or may not. According to the costs of production, it shouldn’t. But by the will of the Elites, it would. You just don’t know. However, if you need to insure your house and you feel that there could come cheaper rate and refuse to pay premium, how about your house burns down? If you get a better price later, buy more and if it does not you are protected. Why do you have to capture the bottom. I never see anyone who can capture the exact bottom, not even warren. Paper does burn in the bad time. Even Berkshire hathaway will not protect you if you run into hyper inflation. Zimbabwe averase investor portfolio could buy 3 eggs at the end. Same with weimar. If we are in booming time, I am sure good business pay you better than gold since gold has no income, it supposed to maintain your purchase power.
Lawrence, wiseguy never said anything about buying at the top, he said the same reasons have been givin from $1800.
He then asks a good question, who is smarter? the person giving he reason or the bankster?
Not popular around here, but even a suggestion that gold could drop never has been.
Anything can drop including gold. He has brought this buying at high several times so I ask the question. I think it is irrelevant since buying at 1800 and buying at 1100 is different. AT 1800, most producers makes money and at 1100, most don’t. It is like buying stock at 40% discount
I think predicting gold dropping further is popular since all of the guests including most posters here believe gold will be lower later. For me, I don’t really care, I just feel it is a good bargain here.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying gold will not drop and also I know plenty people have chased gold up. However, I don’t think it is fair to call people fools when they try to buy an asset at Huge discount. There is a big chance it is near the low. At least it is not near the high so they do not qualify for fools. I think most people will agree that in the long run hard asset should go up in value due to inflation
bitgold seems to be moving, up 25% over 2 days a few days ago and up over 25% today again.
All started when it became available to Americans, maybe thre is interest in gold as currency in the states?
Bit gold may be a good investment for those that get in early and manage to get out, but I still think potential Government interference with it as a high danger. Too dangerous for me, simply because I cannot control what governments might do. It seems to me that the world economy in another decade might be substantially by the Asian block, and those governments like control.
Couldn’t that thinking be applied to the markets in general?
PMs being a prime example.
Good point, CFS
Al, are you thinking that using gold as currency is unwise?
I think there might still be a few sound money advocates around. jmo,
Its possible people will move to bitcoin, from unbacked fiat to unbacked digits, then to unbacked fiat digits?
But I like the idea of using gold.
I prefer it, we all see the results of not using it.
I swear my iPad put the space in bit gold again!
What a daily candle put in by Hecla. Can’t imagine its going to be chewed through very quickly.
Hecla Mining Co. (HL) -NYSE
2.61 Up 0.17(6.97%) 4:01PM EDT
That was a nice rise of 6.97 % today in Hecla. It got way oversold yesterday and was down almost as much, and today was likely just short-covering giving a pop to many of the miners.
I’m still glad I got out of my silver mining positions in May as this whip-saw market is pretty turbulent.
A very ugly chart for Hecla recently for sure.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49025278834
If HL gets down near $2 again, I’ll be a buyer at that point. It will depend on how gradual or steep the decline in metals extends into July. Right now during the whipsaw down, I’m just watching the roller-coaster ride up and down.
GDX, GDXJ, and most funds of gold mining shares dropped in the pre-market session to their lowest levels since March, and then rallied to finish higher even though gold itself closed lower. This kind of action is typical of how uptrends typically begin in this market. Gold itself dropped briefly below 1157 and then quickly recovered, which is also common before a rally in order to knock out sell stops by technical traders before they would have enjoyed real gains.
Lots of short-covering fueled the rally in the gold/silver miners, and this eventually pulled the price of the metals up wards. Personally I don’t expect the rally to be long as we are still whipsawing in a downward drifting range.
The long PM trade looks real good for a day trader ( which I am not) for Friday’s trade. Just saying. And reserve the right to be wrong..
You should try Day Trading like her … 🙂
I’m sure she could talk a few into a trade or two, G
The US markets are closed Friday for honoring Independence Day.
1225 should happen, before the next drop. Maybe?
My thought are this, when the big players , 1%ers , hedge funds and big banks decide to rotate into medals , it will be to late for the rest of us to get enough. Along with the premiums going way up also. I just bought another 20% of what I want. So that makes me 60% in. And I’m hoping that it continues to drops like most think it will.
I knew I should have not got out of DWTI…
Dang.. I still think it’s good.
Gold has to go up right here.
Gold up for a minute and oil still down, and down some more.
I’m sick of watching gold and miners. It’s a sickness that will prove out.
Yep. Oil can still fall a little further throughout July, and I was debating getting in on the DWTI trade last week and should have, but hesitated. With this recent move down, now I’m in limbo for the short term, and am just going to re-evaluate everything after the long holiday weekend.
I don’t agree with this, but I read that “Yep” means you’re an uneducated redneck conservative. “Yup” means you’re an over-educated, ivy-league, limousine liberal.
Ha! Good One Matthew 🙂
Here’s another one I just found after a quick search:
Kristján Pétursson, Uses words almost daily
108 upvotes by Mike Davidson, Christopher Lin, Dan Romero, Motheo Moleko, (more)
They have the same meaning, but there exist slightly different inflections and connotations.
“Yep” is active; it is a go-getter; it implies that you are excited to respond in the affirmative, and is more playful than using “yes” but less committal than “definitely” or “absolutely”.
“Yup”, on the other hand, is slow, perhaps drawling. It is likely a response to an informational query and shows that you may not be totally pleased with having to answer. In some cases, it may contain sarcasm in response to an obvious question or overly inquisitive interrogator.
I resonate with those definitions above more closely. : – )
Here’s another definition I found as I went down this rabbit-hole:
_____________________________________________________________
AUGUST 12, 2010
“Yep vs Yup”
“Earlier today I started an e-mail with Yep which was then replied to with Yup, this went on with yep and yup starting multiple e-mails. I began to wonder if Yup was more correct or if it was a regional thing, or if someone was poking fun at me. Luckily, Urban Dictionary came to the rescue.
Yep – An absolute yes that implies far more than a simple yes. Alternately, an affirmative response with minimal energy.
When someone tells you that a site going down midday is bad what else can you say? My use was a bit of both.
Yup on the other hand,
is a generic term of agreement issued often by a non-listening party, typically used while performing an additional important task, such as watching tv.
So, given that a previous Yup was used in an e-mail thread in which someone said a server going down in the middle of the day is bad, seems actually to be a correct response while multi-tasking and needing to say something. Yep, I for one feel better.”
_____________________________________
Yup.
😉
Funny…
I was told by some trusted investors with 30 to 50 years of experience. They said just one thing. In reality there are one thing out there that is a bargain. And when reality hits, you have better have metals. But they could be wrong. Makes sense to me thou.
I agree that we haven’t hit the bottom yet, but would think a bounce would be fine. We are whipsawing back in forth in the narrowing “falling wedge” so up/down/up/down, but with an overall downward bias into July.
I do agree that stocks are leading the metals, but they are just bouncing first, and gold will follow, but they’ll still dip down further in July.
We had a good discussion yesterday on Rick A.’s blog about GDXJ and support levels for anyone interested in weighing in on that topic. I would think GDXJ has some support at the $22.70 – $22.18 zone.(Matthew pointed out the Fib level on $22.70 that would fill the April 1st gap). I referenced the 2 prior troughs at $22.43 and $22.18, and Rick A. brought up his target at $22.26. If that $22.70-$22.18 level fails, then we’d be seeing a break down out of the range we’ve been in.