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How to position your portfolio in these markets

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July 4, 2015

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Discussion
309 Comments
    Jul 04, 2015 04:09 AM

    Bill Holter interesting and informative as always. Gold simply has to go up. The longer this infuriating wait goes on the greater the upside. But it’s not a case of crowing with delight when some of us become multi-millionaires when lift-off occurs, so much as grieving for multitudes who get left with nothing. Precious metals remain no more than an insurance policy being sold right now at a ridiculous discount.

      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:05 AM

      I think Dan Onliver’s segment was significant, but this is what he did not say:
      The unemployment rate as produced and reported by the U.S. is hiding true nature of employment. The labor participation rate, which is at decade lows, better describes what is really happening.
      Keynsian Theory was developed by an avowed Marxist. It was a stupid theory that only works over short periods of time (length is relative….up to decades is still short) and always eventually destroys economies.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:15 AM

        ditto on the Labor participation rate………..

        Jul 04, 2015 04:38 PM

        Completely agree Professor.

        By the way we discussed some of yours and Andrew’s comments yesterday at our discuss group. Trust me, everyone here would fit right in!

          CFS
          Jul 04, 2015 04:00 PM

          Puerto Rico, the Greece ofN. America, is an absolutely classic example of socialistic government mismanagement.
          It used to have a booming economy in the seventies and eighties; really booming.
          Why?
          Because in the seventies and then under President Reagan, Puerto Rico was tax-advantaged for US companies. Money spent on research in pharmaceutical companies in Puerto Rico for US BASED HEADQUARTER Companies was totally offset against tax liabilities. Not just pharma, but even shoe companies and others.
          Then along came Clinton, who in 2006 decided to phase out the tax-advantage status of Puerto Rico…..foreign companies started to slowly move out. Then in 2010 the Governor o P.R., who like the Big Zero had a pen, decided that with falling revenues he should put a 4% excise tax on foreign companies, including U.S. companies not headquartered in P.R.

          CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF SOCIALIST TAXATION KILLING THE ECONOMY.

          Now the governor wants to encourage industrial growth and give a tax break for companies to come back to P.R. However during the good years infrastructure was not improved. There are water supply problems on the island. Their electricity is expensive.
          Puerto Ricans, like Greeks don’t like to pay taxes.
          And judging by the bars on windows there is a petty theft problem.

            CFS
            Jul 04, 2015 04:26 PM

            Clinton,of course, was not President in 2006, but he created the law that phased out the tax breaks to start in 2006.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:09 AM

      DITTO ON BILL HOLTER……..

        Jul 04, 2015 04:11 AM

        I think Bill has departed MILES FRANKLIN……….

          Jul 04, 2015 04:39 PM

          I believe that you are correct.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:26 AM

        Yes, Bill Holter had some interesting points on the potential economic ramifications of the Greek crisis on the Eurozone.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:33 AM

          Bill also had some good points on the disconnect in the Paper markets versus the Physical market in the precious metals, and the huge volumes/short time frames. Good discussion from Big Al and Bill on the value of holding gold for diversification in ones portfolio.

            Jul 04, 2015 04:06 PM

            Here’s another good interview with Bill Holter on Palisade Radio last week for anyone interested in more of his insights. Cheers!

            ———————————————————————————————-
            Bill Holter: Greek Default to Trigger 48-Hour Global Meltdown!
            BY COLLIN KETTELL ON JUNE 20, 2015

            http://palisaderadio.com/bill-holter-greek-default-to-trigger-48-hour-global-meltdown/

            Jul 04, 2015 04:40 PM

            Simply what I believe, Shad.

            Jul 04, 2015 04:49 PM

            Me too.

            Jul 04, 2015 04:47 PM

            Dan Oliver is also a sharp guy, and he is always good to hear on a weekend show or daily editorial. He has a very even-keeled approach and an interesting perspective.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:34 PM

            “Bill Holter: Greek Default to Trigger 48-Hour Global Meltdown!

            Highly unlikely to happen in such a short time span.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:57 PM

            Agreed. While that is always possible, it is not very plausible. Having said that, sometimes all it takes is a little spark to start a forest fire….

            Jul 05, 2015 05:20 PM

            Greek Default Sparks Volatility, Contagion Fears
            Money Metals NEW RADIO RELEASE July 2nd, 2015

            Analyst David Smith Speaks on Freedom, Personal Responsibility, and Prudent Investing

            https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2015/07/02/greece-puerto-rico-default-000728

      Jul 04, 2015 04:36 PM

      You know Andrew that I have felt that way for a long time.

      CFS
      Jul 05, 2015 05:25 AM

      I’m responding to your comment that gold must go up.
      I agree, but the problem is when!
      I believe we currently have opposing forces acting on gold at the moment.
      The Fed. and and all central banks do not want to see gold increase in price, because, as long as stock markets are going up, the economies in general look good.
      One might think that if the stock market peaks and goes down, then the money taken out of the stock market might find its way into precious metals. Historically that has not been the case. Usually in a post bubble contraction the primary reserve currency rises in price and the competing currencies, including gold, fall until until the price deflationary period is close to ending.
      Gold and precious metals have two component parts in their valuation: Commodity part and currency part. These depend on the metal and the country. e.g. In India both gold and silver have a high currency valuation. However in the U.S. platinum and gold have more of a jewelry commodity component than a currency component. Etc.
      The point I’m trying to make is that it might take longer before PMs rise than many people think.
      Look up the post 1929 crash for gold price increases if you don’t believe me.
      I believe that gold and silver will not rise until there is virtually no supply left. Until then the price will be manipulated downwards and kept low. Since central banks have almost unlimited printing capability, there is no limit of how long price can be manipulated down in the paper market other than a default due to absence of physical metal in the commodity exchanges. Then and only then will the paper price become irrelevant.
      I believe:
      The U.S. has less gold than people believe.
      China has more gold than reported. Over 10,000 tones ans possibly around 30,000 tonnes.
      There is some indication that the COMEX is low on physical and rumors abound that there is some forced cash settlement going on, but no proof of that.
      Certainly cash settlement will be the forced situation when supply of physical is exhausted. This is actually a problem which discourages longs on the COMEX. I.e. Just at the time when a long might expect the price to go up and be profitable, is exactly the time when cash settlement will be forced and the long will be deprived of the metal he thought he was going to receive.

        CFS
        Jul 05, 2015 05:35 AM

        China really is playing the game exceedingly well, despite current stock market problems.
        They are getting rid of their dollars in return for commodities in the ground. Their printing of money has actually gone into infrastructure improvements, instead of welfare payment, food stamps, etc. which has created a significant reduction in productivity in the U.S. And Europe.
        And with the future inevitable economic/currency collapse, China will have a modernized infrastructure and a good amount of gold upon which to base their currency in the New World Economy. China will go from the second economy to the first economy not just by a little, but by a substantial amount.

          CFS
          Jul 05, 2015 05:37 AM

          And they will the war if the U.S. chooses that foolish option.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:04 AM

          Good point, if accurate, Professor!

        Jul 05, 2015 05:53 PM

        Are you sure your PhD is not in economics!

        Al

      Jul 05, 2015 05:50 PM

      Bill Hotler talks a load of goldbug BS as usual. Heard it all before a hundred times, if not a thousand.
      However, I just looked up Greece News and saw that on the BBC says that Greek voters have rejected the bailout deal (62% of voters saying no).

        Jul 05, 2015 05:52 PM

        However with regard to the credit markets he is spot on. nJUts don’t read anything from that into the gold market.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:01 PM

          We need a Dawes conference or a Young conference to buy time. However the money will still not be repaid. This is German 1950s war reparations all over again.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawes_Plan

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Plan

          [In Germany] “Unemployment soared to 33.7% in 1931 in Germany, and 40% in 1932.” …

          “However, the system had collapsed, and Germany did not resume payments. Once the National Socialist government consolidated power, the debt was repudiated and Germany made no further payments. By 1933, Germany had made World War I reparations of only one eighth of the sum required under the Treaty of Versailles.”

          So we then need a Marshall Plan:

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan

          However who wold be the creditor for a new Marshall Plan? The whole West is drowning in debt. The only creditor is China.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:22 PM

            1920s war reparations I meant.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:28 PM

            However, the reparations ‘agreed’ in the Young Plan in 1929 were to have repayments going on until 1988! 59 years of debt slavery for Germany and of course they didn’t pay much of it. They must know that Greece cannot repay and they should be realistic about it because they were in the same situation in the 1920s.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:52 PM

            Great point, Silverbug Dave!

        Jul 05, 2015 05:49 PM

        Really not surprised!

    Jul 04, 2015 04:13 AM
      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:04 AM

      Telegraph reports German finance minister saying Greece should leave Euro temporarily in order to devalue.

      Puerto Rico just hired an ex-Detroit judge. It appears they want to seek chapter 9 bankruptcy although my understanding is that is not allowed for territories under US law.

      If the world monetary system cannot survive a credit default swap problem then the word default will be redefined.
      The Supreme Court can redefine the centuries- old definition of marriage, so why not.
      All defaults will henceforth be called payment moratoria and not trigger a CDS event.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:41 PM

        Great point, Professor!

          CFS
          Jul 04, 2015 04:29 PM

          Puerto Rico actually, despite a report to the contrary, did NOT default on debt on July 1.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:48 PM

        This interview on SilverDoctors with Alasdiar Macleod has some interesting points made on Precious Metals, Supply Demand fundamentals, Coinage stats, Greece implications, and other topics.

        ————————————————————————————————-
        Alasdair Macleod: There Will Be a NEW WORLD Monday Morning!
        Posted on July 3, 2015 by The Doc

        With Greece on the Brink, Alasdair Macleod Joined the Show to Provide an Inside Look at the Crisis, Discussing:

        What is the Greek Referendum REALLY ABOUT? Will the Greek debt be written down?
        China CRASHES By 30%- CHINESE BUBBLE IS IMPLODING!
        The Contagion Will Happen– Expect Banks to Remain Closed on a No Vote!
        There Will Be a NEW WORLD Come Monday Morning!
        Is Gold Still in a Bear Market, or Has a New Bull Leg Begun With a Massive Consolidation?
        Retail Physical Shortage Developing in the US- Market Changing Flow of Demand Has Hit the Market
        The Lid is Going to Come Off the Gold Market!

        http://www.silverdoctors.com/alasdair-macleod-there-will-be-a-new-world-monday-morning/#more-55486

          Jul 05, 2015 05:43 AM

          ….and for those that like listening to Gerald Celente ranting about economic trends….

          Gerald Celente: Founder & Director of the Trends Research Institute – July 5th

          http://kingworldnews.com/gerald-celente-7-5-15/

            Jul 05, 2015 05:48 AM

            Gerald believes, like Andrew Maguire, that both silver and gold, will spike up due to a short squeeze. I am not sure I completely agree on the short term, but then again, the Greece/Euro situation could be a trigger that sends the metals higher. If the Europeans kick the can down the road on Greece, then I still think we’ll see a little more pressure into mid-late July in PMs. This week will tell the tale…..

    Jul 04, 2015 04:33 AM

    For Irish Tony – Andrew Maguire says that in forty years of trading he’s never seen silver so artificially crushed. All that about to change: Twenty bucks up by fourth quarter of this year. Follow 14 mins 30 secs into spoken interview.

    http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-7-4-15/

      Jul 04, 2015 04:39 AM

      Good post Rev. I could see $19-$20 Silver by 4th quarter, or at least by Q1 2016.

      This is why I think the next month or so will be an excellent time to pick up Silver Miners that will have a big multiplier effect on Silver at those prices:

      (ie. Alexco, Amercias Silver Mining, Avino Silver & Gold, Mag Silver, Endeavour, Mag Silver, Sierra Metals, and even Great Panther & Aurcana at those prices).

        Jul 04, 2015 04:40 AM

        Santa Cruz silver will also do well at $19-$20 silver as well since it is followed by KER 🙂

          Jul 05, 2015 05:51 AM

          It remains to be seen if we get the short squeeze this week in Silver due to the Greek situation. If they kick the can, then, we’ll likely just continue the same downward grind in PMs. Once we break out of this falling wedge pattern, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a breakout to the upside though.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:42 PM

      Thanks, Reverend

      Jul 04, 2015 04:53 PM

      Hello Andrew . I hope you are keeping well.
      Yes i am still a silver bull.(thats the tag some people have given me ) When i first came on to this site years ago i think i remember saying i was buying silver for the long haul,
      10 years i started buying at about $10 an ounce , but i did buy a lot of scrap sterling silver from ebay at below spot price & got lots of nice antique pieces which are worth a lot more than their scrap value.
      So i have seen silver go from $10 up to $50 & i held & seen it drop to where it is today.
      Have i lost faith in silver ? NOOOOO I have the patience & (hopefully the time to see it go above Its all time high…Then perhaps i might sell some.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:14 PM

        GREAT TO HEAR FROM YOU IRISH..you have been laying in the weeds mostly – like me!

          Jul 05, 2015 05:53 PM

          Hi Marc….Sort-of laying in the weeds . I have been traveling the length & breath of England panning for silver in every river i came across…Not even a single grain (sigh)
          I might go to Wales & pan for gold instead
          Did you know all the gold in Wales belongs to the crown , so perhaps i should give that plan a miss. If the old crone was to find out i was nicking her gold.Then it might be the case that she says…..ORF WITH HIS HEAD…..Keep smiling Marc.

        CFS
        Jul 04, 2015 04:31 PM

        There and I thought leprechauns fancied gold!

          Jul 04, 2015 04:39 PM

          funny CFS. It is always good to hear from Irishtony on this site. I used to get a real kick out of he and Jerry OOTBs antics in years gone by.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:41 PM

            Hi Shad….Who knows , perhaps me & Jerry will get the old act together again.
            What say you Jerry. We used to give the big fella some stick , but we think he enjoyed it.
            Only problem is some on here may object to us been off topic..
            What say you Shad !!!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:41 PM

            You two have center stage.Cory’ s minion has spoken!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:44 PM

            lOOKS LIKE SILVER anniversary in order………….We will need Shad’s approval first, he is the new sheriff in town…….owl is only the night watchman…………OOTB

            Jul 05, 2015 05:44 PM

            Will Shad pay the bills?

            Shad is actually a welcome addition!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:10 PM

            Funny Irish & FFR. I loved all the antics and comedy and having a good time. When I first started coming to the site in 2011 and 2012, you both made me smile on a daily basis. No problems there and I appreciate all our past conversations.

            My only problem was the repeated personal attacks, negativity, constant hateful bickering about religion or political neuroses from certain posters over months and months, which had nothing to do with a site focused on hard assets and resources. Those (3-4) posters don’t seem to be bogging down the site anymore , and it is such better environment.

            For the record, I have no interest in being the sheriff, and as stated repeatedly I have spent most of my life organizing events for first amendment free speech, have been in bands, and been active politically fighting for the Constitutional freedoms. However, I also know the difference of a Private business having the right to set up some guidelines, and people don’t have a “right” to free speech in a “private” business, (just like you can’t walk into a restaurant with a sandwich board on screaming hateful things at all the customers until you are simply asked to leave).

            I simply encouraged some moderation of the forum when it got ugly, and then I had several personal attacks on me while I was encouraging people to play nice. Nobody seemed to care, so I dished it right back out to make the dramatic case, and now look – a whole week without crap on the blog and a great weekend show.

            Now I’m labeled as the censor, or pc police, or even the sheriff just because I noted how many great people left due to all the garbage on the blog over the last 6 months, and suggested something should be done. It isn’t my site, it is Big Als, but I just believe if good people don’t stand up when there is hateful or negative behavior, then their silence just enables the counter-productive actions.

            I’m not ever going to be sorry for encouraging constructive behavior, asking everyone to love everyone, and encouraging some focus on a website geared around investing in the resource sector.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:58 PM

            We truly appreciate you Shad.

            Send me an e-mail if you would. (alkorelin@gmail.com)

            Jul 05, 2015 05:06 PM

            Thanks Big Al.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:50 PM

            ditto……..we do enjoy , all that Shad has to contribute…… seriously…..ootb

            Jul 06, 2015 06:28 AM

            Thanks FFM – right back atcha’ my man. Cheers : – )

          Jul 05, 2015 05:57 PM

          CFS…..Im a gay leprechaun….I prefere silver.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:34 PM

            You gotta love the Supreme Court over here, Sweetheart!

    Jul 04, 2015 04:08 AM
      Jul 04, 2015 04:20 AM

      great article…….as I have mentioned before I spent 5 yrs in the DEEP SOUTH., CHARLESTON ,SC…….and the majority of true southern people, never called it a CIVIL WAR, and as any historian knows…Roberts is correct……..

        Jul 04, 2015 04:22 AM

        BUT, we do have a bogus.. PRESIDENT…………..

          Jul 04, 2015 04:26 AM

          I GUESS they are going to rewrite history…..concerning the FLAG……

            Jul 04, 2015 04:00 PM

            Political correctness is generally wrong. Especially when it involves lying!

          Jul 05, 2015 05:59 PM

          Jerry…Not just a bogus pres. but also a bogus government just like here in the UK.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:09 PM

            I agree Irish………..J exiting Moscow soon……………..

      Jul 04, 2015 04:58 PM

      Very interesting, I just finished reading it. Thank you!

      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:33 PM

      Depends on exact wording of referendum, but my guess is they will vote yes.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:48 PM

        Call me crazy, Professor, but on this one I don’t agree!

    Jul 04, 2015 04:45 AM
      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:07 AM

      I believe oil is range-bound and will simply oscillate between $50 and $70 a barrel for a period.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:50 AM

        That seems like a reasonable trading range on Oil CFS, but I still see the lower $50’s over the next few weeks as probable, and a good place to build positions in the larger ETFs or select producers.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:08 PM

          Big Al & Cory – Thanks for getting Byron King on the show this weekend to discuss the Oil markets. He has a very informed and interesting perspective on the topic. Good stuff!

    Jul 04, 2015 04:11 AM

    More likely the volatility in silver will be to the downside as gold moves into it’s 8 year cycle low.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:47 AM

      I agree on some more downside in the PMs in the near term. Personally I still expect to see Silver prices in the $14’s again in mid to late July/ early Aug. We’ll have to see how the next 3-4 weeks play out for more direction on the severity and momentum of the drop.

      Personally I am looking at starting to average in to positions in the small & mid-size Silver & Gold producers, the streaming companies, and select ETFs in the next few weeks if we get this further leg down. This should be coinciding with the 7 year low in the CRB commodity index as well, so it will be a good window to start accumulating a number of base metal companies, agricultural companies, and energy companies in the late summer (late July/ August).

        Jul 04, 2015 04:02 PM

        Probably a good idea, Shad.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:57 PM

      Gary..would China admitting they have over 9,000 tonnes of Gold will make a difference?

      Did China just admit that they own over 9000 tons of gold ?

      •Since 2009, Chinese gold reserves keep increasing. Successfully breakthrough 7000 ton, 8000 ton, 9000 ton. Till the end of 2014, the gold reserves reach 9816.03 ton, the world’s second

      http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/events/BMF2015/Zhang%20Bingnan_EN1.pdf

        Jul 04, 2015 04:26 PM

        Thanks for the information. China gold association is the largest non governmental organization of precious metals. Its members include around 90% of consumer organizations and manufacturers. What it says is official second only to government anouncement. I am surprised this presentation is not quoted more.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:29 AM

          Lawrence..I had one respoonse that it was in groung gold reserve. Time will tell as it filters through. This Citi piece should have everyone up in arms. Citi stuck trillions in derivatives on the backs of the US taxpayer in a funding bill last year. They should be carting them off in cuffs.

          Citigroup Just Cornered The “Precious Metals” Derivatives Market

          Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/04/2015 14:48 -0400

          One week ago, when we scoured through the latest OCC quarterly derivative report (in which we find that the top FDIC insured 4 US

          banks continue to account for over 90%, or $185.5 trillion of all outstanding derivatives which as of March 31 amounted to $203 trillion;

          nothing new here), we found something fascinating: based on the OCC’s derivative update, JPM had literally cornered the commodity

          derivatives complex, when from “just” $226 billion in total Commodity exposure, JPM’s notional soared by 1,690% in one quarter to $4

          trillion, or about 96% of total.

          Some, without even bothering to read the article, did what they always do when reacting to Zero Hedge articles: accused it of writing a

          “wrong” post first and asking questions later and coming up with someutterly incorrect response to show just how wrong Zero Hedge was

          because, guess what, the Office of the US Currency Comptroller had clearly “fat fingered” trillions in critical data which is far more

          logical.

          As usually happens in these situations, Zero Hedge was right (there was some tongue in cheek apologybut hey, at least someone got to

          boost their traffic briefly by namedropping this web site; incidentally apology accepted), which could have been checked simply just by

          looking at bank call reports, in this case the quarterly Regulatory Capital report, schedule RC-R, which made it very clear that indeed

          JPM’s OTC commodity derivatives had exploded to $4 trillion.

          For those too lazy to check before tweeting, here is the number of OTC cleared “Other” commodity derivatives for JPM before, as of

          December 31:

          Continued…http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/why-did-citigroups-precious-metals-derivative-exposure-just-soar-1260

        Jul 05, 2015 05:04 AM

        Markedtofuture……….great INFO…….need to seen to AL……….maybe he could send to Holter, and others….then it might get distributed. Great heads up info……jmho.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:10 AM

          If you are refering to the Perkin’ s piece, we will contact him this week.

    Jul 04, 2015 04:57 AM

    Gold Bullion Dealer Unexpectedly “Suspends Operations” Due To “Significant Transactional Delays”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-03/gold-bullion-dealer-unexpectedly-suspends-operations-due-significant-transactional-d

      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:17 AM

      Simply what happens when supplies run down to empty, in a rigged market.
      In a non-manipulated market the price would rise.
      PROOF POSITIVE the gold market is rigged.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:03 PM

        I agree but it really depends on how a person defines “rigging”.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:43 PM

        Rigging is rigging. Some one not letting market to function naturally. In a price suppressing environment, shortage is the result. If you have some valuable stuff other cannot get, you can sell at high price in black market.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:48 PM

          In the 70s China, price of vegetables were low. People not only not interested in produce, they were not store it either. For a long time you can see the price on the shelf but shelf was empty. They government has to Crack down on black market as well and arrest people who dare to make a quick bucks.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:49 PM

          That is certainly true.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:02 AM

      DITTO ……..on the rigging………

    Jul 04, 2015 04:00 AM

    China hunts for ‘manipulators’ as stocks tumble

    paragraph 7 states: “The government must rescue the market, not with empty words, but with real silver and gold,” said Fu Xuejun, strategist at Huarong Securities Co, before the CSRC and PBOC announcements, adding that a market crash would hurt banks, consumption, companies and even trigger social instability. “It’s a disaster. If it’s not, what is it?”

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/struggle-stem-market-rout-china-hunts-manipulators-010544254–sector.html

      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:13 AM

      The Chinese definition of a manipulator is scary to me.
      “A manipulator is anyone who shold short in significant numbers”

      As I reported in the forum on Thursday, China at that point in time had already arrest 20 brokers/dealers.

        CFS
        Jul 04, 2015 04:24 AM

        The NATCORE response told me nothing. It may be they cannot tell anything because they don’t have patent protection, but it could be just hype. I would not touch that company with a barge pole, but that is just the personal opinion of an old codger with a Ph.D. In Physics, who is always highly skeptical of most things.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:06 PM

          I think you might b e wrong. But, I am not discounting what you are saying. Just continuing to investigate.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:22 AM

        As they did in Iceland CFS. And now the whole economy’s on a roll.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:59 PM

          Chinese government has always suppressed the stock market by various ways including I
          Allow sweat equity to cash quickly and over issuance of IPO, which results in flat market for nearly 20 years. Now they was thinking to raise the price to prevent capital flow and it is used by someone to pump and dump

        Jul 04, 2015 04:50 PM

        I guess that is a definition of most of the large financial institutions.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:19 PM

      China May Be More Important Than Greece – by Gary Wagner
      Friday July 03, 2015 18:30

      http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-07-03/China-May-Be-More-Important-Than-Greece.html

        Jul 04, 2015 04:35 PM

        China Scrambles to Put Plunge Protection Team Together: Banks Pledge Support For Crashing Market
        Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/04/2015

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/china-scrambles-put-plunge-protection-team-together-banks-pledge-support-crashing-ma

          Jul 04, 2015 04:13 PM

          Chinese government seems not very skilled in financial markets and lack of interest of using stock market to reach its goals. I feel the most important is to stabilize the market in a lower level and prevent another bubble up. 3000 to 3500 is a better range. It should stop the old method of diluting the markets. Apparently they have realized it and rolled back all the new IPOS. It’s leaders are mostly engineers and these guys usually view stock market as useless for the economy. People who play with the market are not in line with government as JPM and GS with US government.

            Jul 04, 2015 04:29 PM

            Yes, this will be a big eye-opener for the average Chinese retail investor, and stabilization of their markets will be key.

            Jul 04, 2015 04:56 PM

            I have received many jokes from my friends. Those are pretty funny. They make of market, investors and government. This is a big loss of face

      Jul 04, 2015 04:04 PM

      Very interesting, thank you.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:28 PM

        Glad to share.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:05 AM

      HEADS WILL ROLL ON THIS ONE……………

    Jul 04, 2015 04:30 AM

    Healthcare…….Aetna buys Humana………….

      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:15 AM

      I noticed that, but am surprised it will be allowed.

    Jul 04, 2015 04:31 AM

    NiSource sells Columbia Pipeline……..this should be of interest to you CFS….

    Jul 04, 2015 04:32 AM

    Here in the UK the Bank of England Chancellor has opted to cut our current bank deposits protection scheme by £10k as of this January: £75k protection compared to current £85k. Small step towards bail-ins maybe if the banks don’t go belly up before, in which case all savers become creditors who could lose everything.

      CFS
      Jul 04, 2015 04:07 AM

      The scary thing is that protection is only per banking group, and I don’t think people realize that many banks are in a group, so just splitting your accounts under lots of different banks may not be enough.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:11 PM

        I did not know that. Is it common knowledge?

          CFS
          Jul 04, 2015 04:50 PM

          the UK used to have five major banks, plus some Scottish banks that stayed north of the border, plus a lot of building societies (banks giving mortgages) and a few smallish credit unions.
          The Irish default and the Iceland default wrecked havoc with the banking system. Bankruptcies, takeovers, further bankruptciese.g. After the first default the Bank of Scotland saw a lot of cheap takeovers of building societies Zander actually took over half a dozen or more. Then came the housing bubble burst and the Bank of Scotland got in deep trouble with those building societies it had bought, and had government bail out. But there are now about half a dozen differently named banks/building societies all trading as part of the bank of Scotland group. Similarly for other banks. Midland bank disappeared altogether, national Westmister bank swallowed a bunch of companies. Barclays is contracting because of commodity loses and I don’t know what happened to Lloyds.

            CFS
            Jul 04, 2015 04:53 PM

            Don’t know how Zander got in the above paragraph. iPad ?
            The bank of Santander took over a number of banks also.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:52 PM

        Yes CFS, that’s why we’re at last going to buy our own house! Keep only enough money in the bank/s to pay off the monthly bills.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:09 PM

      When you consider magnitude, you could be correct. China does not have the debt problem though. (Not yet certainly.)

    Jul 04, 2015 04:19 AM

    Not an easy call his time for another crash in the PM complex as sentiment is historically low now while it was NOT in the 08 crash. In fact gold hit all time highs that year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the PMs get a major boost this time around. Remember, ALL the serious players have deep knowledge of technical analysis and cycle theory. They see what Doc, Gary, Rick et al see. Psychology is the true indicator here. Unfortunately, it is not easy to predict!

      Jul 04, 2015 04:58 AM

      Good points Confused, as the PM marketplace now and in 2008 is much different. We are in fairly negative sentiment in the PMs versus extreme bullishness in 2008. Do you think the mining shares will get hurt or helped if the general stock markets do have a more meaningful correction in the Fall (Sept/Oct)?

      Currently, the technical indicators and longer term monthly charts still have PMs stuck in a whipsaw range in the “falling wedge” pattern, so there still may be a little more rangebound and down tendencies into July / early Aug. The good news is that there is typically a breakout at the end of this pattern to the upside, but there is no guarantee in these crazy markets. My personal view is that we dip down a little further (maybe we test the lows) in the next month or so, but then PMs may climb nicely into the end of 2015.

      Best luck to all in their investing.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:28 PM

        *There are some good charts on each of the metals that you can “tab” through at the bottom, with Jim’s annotations for the technical indicators he sees.

        *Also – There are 4 good hyper-linked articles on the following technical analysis tools embedded in the article linked above. They are very well written.

        Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Using Bollinger Bands
        Sharpening Your Trading Skills: The MACD Indicator
        Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Moving Averages
        Sharpening Your Trading Skills: The Relative Strength Index (RSI)

        Thursday’s Charts for Gold, Silver and Platinum and Palladium, July 2
        Thursday July 02, 2015 12:03

        http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-07-02/Thursday-s-Charts-for-Gold-Silver-and-Platinum-and-Palladium-July-2.html

        Jul 04, 2015 04:14 PM

        Regarding your first question, I believe that because of the dramatically different sectors involved mining shares would not be hurt as badly.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:26 PM

          Those were my thoughts as well Big Al. I think Confused brought up a good point in that in 2008 there were extreme bullish positions from the larger institutional investors and many retail investor, but today, the people that are still holding are the stronger hands. So if we see a bigger correction this fall in the general markets, I would expect some pressure on the PM equities at first in a “sell everything” environment, but then commodities and the beat up miners may start getting a bid as the larger investors start allocating some money to this sector. There is also a great deal of money parked on the sidelines that would go in bottom fishing at that time.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:15 PM

        I would say the difference now is that the market is almost completely controlled by the bullion banks. So technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment are almost meaningless.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:57 PM

          Yes, the paper markets in Gold & Silver, but not so much then Mining Stocks or PGM group.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:12 PM

      Psychology is almost impossible to predict.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:46 PM

        CONFUSED and AL

        Regarding your claim that “psychology is not easy/impossible to predict,” I do not believe that Pavlov or Le Bon would agree with you. Psychology is rather static in many regards (predictable) … thanks to the millions of man hours that have been spent examining it.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:29 AM

          Probably true, Bent nail. I just don’t know that much about it.

      Jul 04, 2015 04:08 PM

      Confused,

      I don’t think projecting a PM down draft is going out on a limb at all if we get another liquidity event like 2008 which I think is all but certain. Actually I think the velocity of money which is on the floor has already telegraphed the outcome. The wave has started and its still small, but it will grow and unleash its power.

      As a matter of fact I think its highly likely that PM’s in 2015/2016 during this crisis will be the go too asset to sell again, just like before. Why?, because very few other assets are as liquid and valuable as gold in an crisis environment. I can assure you that if someone needs to make a house payment or buy food and necessities of life, don’t kid yourself, gold will be sold to fund those needs along with anything else that not nailed down. Period, end of story.

      Having said that, I haven’t a clue how low a temporary setback in gold could drop to, but I don’t think that should be a major focus in the big picture because anything approaching $1,000 dollars if that was to come to pass will be bought will vigor by smart and prudent investors and prices will recover quickly after the weakness has subsided.

      V

        Jul 04, 2015 04:55 PM

        Agree V, particularly your last paragraph.

          Jul 04, 2015 04:08 PM

          Thanks Big Al, all the best to you and your health.

          V

            Jul 05, 2015 05:26 AM

            I am doing all I can to get better as is Kathy. (Chemo is a bit tough!)

            Jul 05, 2015 05:23 AM

            We wish you both great health and prosperity Big Al.

    Jul 04, 2015 04:23 AM

    Off message: Ukrainian Major General defects; others will follow…

    http://rt.com/news/268828-kiev-officer-defects-dpr/

    Jul 04, 2015 04:10 PM
    Jul 04, 2015 04:26 PM

    Use the “Tabs” at the bottom of the chart to toggle between the different currency pairs, in particular the US Dollar strength versus other currencies.

    ——————————————————————-
    Thursday’s Forex Analytical Charts, July 2
    Thursday July 02, 2015 12:07

    Investors/Traders Need to Closely Monitor the Forex Market

    http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-07-02/Thursday-s-Forex-Analytical-Charts-July-2.html

      Jul 04, 2015 04:35 PM

      Based on those charts it looks like Jim is calling for a higher dollar in the short to mid-term. It will be interesting to see if the USD makes another run at the 100 level in the next 2 months.

    Jul 04, 2015 04:33 PM

    Sounds like something is about to happen in the Silver market……..Hum?

    If you want to know if this has anything to do with the recent move in precious metals prices, or rather the complete lack thereof, even as Europe is on the verge of its first member officially exiting the Eurozone, and China’s stock market is suffering its worst market crash since 2008.

    Citigroup’s Precious Metals exposure over the past 4 years increase in the past quarter, from just $3.9 billion to $53 billion!

    JPM commodity derivatives complex, soared from “just” $226 billion in total Commodity exposure, (1,690% in one quarter) to $4 trillion, or about 96% of total.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/why-did-citigroups-precious-metals-derivative-exposure-just-soar-1260

      Jul 04, 2015 04:38 PM

      Yes, great point Gabriel. I believe Bill Holter gets into some of this on the Seg#2 KER interview when discussing the paper market in PMs versus the physical. It’s wild!

      Jul 04, 2015 04:16 PM

      Than k s Gabriel.

      I cannon get to everything so comments like yours help me a lot.

    Jul 04, 2015 04:45 PM

    “Are they doing this to hedge all their other investments if gold and silver go up? Obviously they are working together. Perhaps they are hedging for the FED. But even if there is upside move – who pay them the reward at the end of the day? How many quadrillions can the FED create, and why would you want it at that point?

    The money must be being used for something else, like shorting the Chinese market perhaps 🙂 …

    Jul 04, 2015 04:57 PM

    Mandalay has just ousted Hecla for the #1 position in the Mid to Major tier Silver producers. Fresnillo has has ousted Silver Standard Resources for 3rd position.

    Silver Miners Composite Chart for some of the Majors and Mid-Tiers the last 200 days.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?AG,FSM,HL,PAAS,CDE,SSRI,TAHO,FNLPF,DBEXF,MND.TO#

      Jul 04, 2015 04:15 PM

      Here’s a nice chart of some smaller producers and explorers in the Silver space. Mag Silver has moved into the #1 position out of this group this week, with Sierra Metals in #2, and Americas Silver Miners (still displaying as Scorpio) in 3rd place.

      Featuring composite chart on the last 200 days with : Mag Silver, Alexco, Silvercorp, Trevali Resources, Impact Silver, Santacruz Silver, Sierra Metals, Avino Silver & Gold, Great Panther Silver, and Americans Silver Mining (still displays as Scorpio).

      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?MVG,AXU,SVM,TV.TO,IPT.V,SCZ.V,SMT.TO,ASM,GPL,SMNPF#

      Jul 04, 2015 04:48 PM

      Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Major Producers & Gold Streamers.

      Leading the pack is Newmont, with Randgold Resources in #2, Franco-Nevada in #3, and Royal Gold gaining in a close 4th position.

      Companies featured: Goldcorp, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Randgold, Newmont, Kinross, Yamana, Royal Gold, Franco-Nevada, and Sandstorm Gold.

      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GG,ABX,AEM,GOLD,NEM,KGC,AUY,RGLD,FNV,SAND#

        Jul 04, 2015 04:59 PM

        Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Mid-Tier Producers:

        Leading the pack in first place is Detour Gold, then Guyana Goldfields in 2nd, and Lake Shore Gold in 3rd position.

        Companies featured: Detour Gold, Eldorado Gold, Gold Fields, Anglogold Ashanti, Alamos Gold, Primero Mining, Lake Shore Gold, Guyana Goldfields, Iamgold, Pretium Resources.

        http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DRGDF,EGO,GFI,AU,AGI,PPP,LSG,GUY.TO,IAG,PVG#

          Jul 04, 2015 04:12 PM

          Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Small and Mid-Tier Producers:

          Leading the pack in first place is Richmont Mines, then Kirkland Lake Gold in 2nd, and Rubicon Minerals moving 3rd position, with Sibanye Gold in a close 4th postion.

          Companies featured: Argonaut Gold, McEwen Mining, B2Gold, Rubicon Minerals, Semafo, New Gold, Kirkland Lake Gold, Harmony Gold mining, Sibanye Gold, and Richmont Mines.

          http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?ARNGF,MUX,BTG,RBY,SEMFF,NGD,KGILF,HMY,SBGL,RIC#

        Jul 05, 2015 05:36 PM

        Aren’t the doing well?

          Jul 05, 2015 05:24 PM

          who?

    Jul 04, 2015 04:17 PM

    Thanks Shad!

      Jul 04, 2015 04:26 PM

      Great show this weekend Big Al. Have a great 4th of July!

        Jul 04, 2015 04:37 PM

        It has also been great that there was no fighting or negative attacks on the weekend show for the first time in about 5 months. There is hope for a bright future!

          Jul 05, 2015 05:55 AM

          Always calm before the storm……………… 🙂

            Jul 05, 2015 05:24 AM

            Funny FFM. Actually all week it has been very civil and constructive for a change.

            Cheers!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:22 PM

            Agreed Jerry…..Especially if you & i decide to get back together & get up to our old antics…..Wonder if Shad will allow us !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:32 PM

            see note above…………………

            Jul 05, 2015 05:34 PM

            Shad is the new sheriff in town……..owl, is the night watchman……… 🙂

            Jul 05, 2015 05:15 PM

            Funny Irish & FFR. I loved all the antics and comedy and having a good time. When I first started coming to the site in 2011 and 2012, you both made me smile on a daily basis. No problems there and I appreciate all our past conversations.

            My only problem was the repeated personal attacks, negativity, constant hateful bickering about religion or political neuroses from certain posters over months and months, which had nothing to do with a site focused on hard assets and resources. Those (3-4) posters don’t seem to be bogging down the site anymore , and it is such better environment.

            For the record, I have no interest in being the sheriff, and as stated repeatedly I have spent most of my life organizing events for first amendment free speech, have been in bands, and been active politically fighting for the Constitutional freedoms. However, I also know the difference of a Private business having the right to set up some guidelines, and people don’t have a “right” to free speech in a “private” business, (just like you can’t walk into a restaurant with a sandwich board on screaming hateful things at all the customers until you are simply asked to leave).
            I simply encouraged some moderation of the forum when it got ugly, and then I had several personal attacks on me while I was encouraging people to play nice. Nobody seemed to care, so I dished it right back out to make the dramatic case, and now look – a whole week without crap on the blog and a great weekend show.

            Now I’m labeled as the censor, or pc police, or even the sheriff just because I noted how many great people left due to all the garbage on the blog over the last 6 months, and suggested something should be done. It isn’t my site, it is Big Als, but I just believe if good people don’t stand up when there is hateful or negative behavior, then their silence just enables the counter-productive actions.

            I’m not ever going to be sorry for encouraging constructive behavior, asking everyone to love everyone, and encouraging some focus on a website geared around investing in the resource sector. Peace be with you.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:17 PM

            If you know Irish and myself……..we are just kidding…….. take it easy and relax, we enjoyed your getting things straight………ootb.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:55 PM

            Thanks ya turkey Frank….OOTB….Das BOOT.

        Jul 04, 2015 04:56 PM

        Staying home and taking care of mama!

          Jul 04, 2015 04:30 PM

          Same here. My lady and I decided just to stay home, but went for a 2 hour walk in our neighborhood where dozens of houses are still shooting off fireworks and most of the neighborhood is out on their driveways laughing, drinking, playing music. It is a nice site to see and feels like a real community. Cheers!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:23 AM

            Sound really great, Shad!

    Jul 04, 2015 04:43 PM

    al mentioned China’s has no debt problem….Gov doesn’t have the debt but boy they have issues.
    Not to mention the collapse of the stock market…
    http://jugglingdynamite.com/2015/07/03/chinese-stocks-lose-14-of-value-in-13-days/
    Makes the states look pretty solid to me.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/chinas-middle-class-dream-on-shaky-ground/article25142239/

    Jul 04, 2015 04:46 PM

    Bob Hoye has great comments worth a listen.
    http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/07/shanghai-stock-market-shocked/

    Jul 04, 2015 04:47 PM

    Bill Trouble for China…You will watch commodities go nowhere FAST….
    Screwed….Remanence of the US blowout…
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/chinas-middle-class-dream-on-shaky-ground/article25142239/

      Jul 04, 2015 04:17 PM

      The globe and mail is a HACK mainstream media vehicle!!

        Jul 04, 2015 04:57 PM

        You really think so Marc?

        Jul 04, 2015 04:23 PM

        Absolutely. They employed several journalists to trash China constantly since the time I came here. I remember one lady got so extreme and got globe and mail in trouble. It was protested by overseas Chinese since she was getting too biased and fabricated stories. They had to move her to different section and changed their Beijing correspondent. The above story did happen in China but I never run into this type people myself. These people are usually very hard working and ambitious. They choose a hard way to achieve their goals. They are similar to early European and Asian immigrants. People seems no longer understand them but it is more acceptable in China. People in china call them house slave. These people are usually from poorer places and try everything to succeed. They can usually beat Beijingers in the job market and liked by employers. The problem is that they do not have connection in Beijing and cannot get short cuts like Beijingers. People from Beijing got other ways to get houses.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:25 AM

          Ever read The Age of Ambition, Lawrence?

    Jul 04, 2015 04:20 PM

    If the pensioners come out en masse and vote tomorrow, I expect Greece to stay in the Euro. Greek pensioners cannot handle a Grexit; a lot of them can even use an ATM. Regarding the youth in Greece: the best and the brightest have already left. They’re working in Germany, Switzerland, UK, etc. The youth that remains there have no to little marketable skills; Their best bet is to go back to the provinces and work the land, but they refuse to do that.

    Jul 04, 2015 04:25 PM

    What does Andrew Macquire, Alistair Macleod and Bo Polny all have in common?

      Jul 04, 2015 04:58 PM

      I give up!

      Jul 04, 2015 04:32 PM

      I’m not sure if Bo Polny has anything in common with other humans : – )

        Jul 05, 2015 05:23 AM

        Sue he does, he wants to make a lot of money and, I believe, he is.

    Jul 04, 2015 04:39 PM

    The lowering of money rates should stimulate the stock market and it has but it has not aided in the recovery of Europe. The easing of American money rates has prevented the accumulation of gold in The United States, the lowering of interest rates should stimulate American trade but it hasn’t. The White House is giving endorsement to inflation which should be very worrying to the public and the business community.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:30 AM

      The ex executive branch, in general, worries me DT

    Jul 05, 2015 05:00 AM

    Six horrible facts re Greek austerity…
    http://sgtreport.com/

      Jul 05, 2015 05:32 AM

      GREAT LISTEN TO……………….WAKE UP AMERICA……………

        Jul 05, 2015 05:38 AM

        LaRouche Pac……

          Jul 05, 2015 05:40 AM

          OWL………..you might want to headline this one……………jmho

            Jul 05, 2015 05:00 AM

            Which one, Indiana?

            Jul 05, 2015 05:44 PM

            Concerning “which one?”…sgtreport above……Also, might want to have Harley Schlanger on as a guest speaker concerning the bankers….his number is in the above report, at the end of the tape that Andy supplied above……(I would type it out, but hate to post telephone numbers without request)

            Jul 05, 2015 05:36 PM

            Will look, Indiana.

        Jul 05, 2015 05:01 AM

        Got a link?

      Jul 05, 2015 05:20 AM

      Just read it, thank you Reverend!

    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:34 AM
    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:48 AM

    LATEST UPDATES FROM UK TELEGRAPH REAL-TIME

    Latest
    ‘No’ vote leads last-minute polls
    The FT have seen a last minute opinion poll which puts the ‘Oxi’ or ‘No’ camp in the lead by a very small margin for 51-53pc.
    They note the survey was unpublished but carried out just before the country went to polls.

    13.28 [BST]
    Probably good idea to keep this bookmarked tonight

    All eyes will be on the official #Greferendum results website later. http://t.co/5Ib24xZsgB pic.twitter.com/OPLAQxVZdp
    — Damian Mac Con Uladh (@damomac) July 5, 2015

      Jul 05, 2015 05:59 AM

      Many thanks for the link, LFP

    Jul 05, 2015 05:01 AM

    As the Greek vote moves inexorably towards its conclusion. Monday’s outcome will be grievous whatever the outcome: A No vote will be excruciating like having an arm amputated without anaesthetic, whilst a Yes vote might briefly numb the pain only for all four limbs to get lopped off in due course. A helpless torso in other words, destined for servitude.
    As PC Roberts says a Greek default and turn to the east is the only workable solution, even as the west would go into paroxysms of rage, if not of seeking to generate civil war in Greece. Who knows if PM Alexis Tsipras clings onto power and survives the possibility of assassination, history may acclaim him as one of the great heroes of democracy.
    Greece, our prayers and love go out to you.

      LFP
      Jul 05, 2015 05:48 AM

      A Grecian Lee Harvey Oswald to appear shortly .. ? Humm …

      Pasted here from the UK Telegraph real-time coverage page
      [the URL I posted above] :

      … @10.16 am BST
      And just in case you missed it, here’s Alexis Tsipras casting his vote earlier this morning
      Here’s what he had to say in full:

      ” Many people can ignore the will of a government. But no one can ignore the will of a people.

      Today is a day of celebration, because democracy is a celebration, it is joy. And when democracy overcomes fear and extortion, then it becomes a redemption and a way out.

      The Greek people today send a very strong message. A message of dignity and determination. The message that they hold a choice in their hands. No one can ignore the will of a people to live. To live with determination and take their life in their own hands.

      I am certain that from tomorrow we will have broken a path for all the peoples in Europe. A path of return to the founding values of democracy and solidarity in Europe, sending a strong message of determination, not only to stay but also to live with dignity in Europe.

      To do well and work as equals among equals. Let us therefore make this act of strong will, this celebratory act of democracy, an act of determination for a better future for all of us, both in Greece and Europe. I am very optimistic.”

      Jul 05, 2015 05:57 AM

      I found John Perkins’ s comments to be very interesting as we discussed that very same thing with Chris recently.

      If, in fact, Greece was bullied into this situation, which seems possible, more power to them.

      I would appreciate insight from all of you on this topic.

        bb
        Jul 05, 2015 05:08 AM

        Here is some insight for you AL

        How Greece Has Fallen Victim To “Economic Hit Men”

        “Greece is being ‘hit’, there’s no doubt about it,” exclaims John Perkins, author of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, noting that “[Indebted countries] become servants to what I call the corporatocracy … today we have a global empire, and it’s not an American empire. It’s not a national empire… It’s a corporate empire, and the big corporations rule.”

        John Perkins, author of Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, discusses how Greece and other eurozone countries have become the new victims of “economic hit men.”

        John Perkins is no stranger to making confessions. His well-known book, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, revealed how international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, while publicly professing to “save” suffering countries and economies, instead pull a bait-and-switch on their governments: promising startling growth, gleaming new infrastructure projects and a future of economic prosperity – all of which would occur if those countries borrow huge loans from those organizations. Far from achieving runaway economic growth and success, however, these countries instead fall victim to a crippling and unsustainable debt burden.

        That’s where the “economic hit men” come in: seemingly ordinary men, with ordinary backgrounds, who travel to these countries and impose the harsh austerity policies prescribed by the IMF and World Bank as “solutions” to the economic hardship they are now experiencing. Men like Perkins were trained to squeeze every last drop of wealth and resources from these sputtering economies, and continue to do so to this day. In this interview, which aired on Dialogos Radio, Perkins talks about how Greece and the eurozone have become the new victims of such “economic hit men.”

        Michael Nevradakis: In your book, you write about how you were, for many years, a so-called “economic hit man.” Who are these economic hit men, and what do they do?

        John Perkins: Essentially, my job was to identify countries that had resources that our corporations want, and that could be things like oil – or it could be markets – it could be transportation systems. There’re so many different things. Once we identified these countries, we arranged huge loans to them, but the money would never actually go to the countries; instead it would go to our own corporations to build infrastructure projects in those countries, things like power plants and highways that benefitted a few wealthy people as well as our own corporations, but not the majority of people who couldn’t afford to buy into these things, and yet they were left holding a huge debt, very much like what Greece has today, a phenomenal debt.

        “[Indebted countries] become servants to what I call the corporatocracy … today we have a global empire, and it’s not an American empire. It’s not a national empire … It’s a corporate empire, and the big corporations rule.”

        And once [they were] bound by that debt, we would go back, usually in the form of the IMF – and in the case of Greece today, it’s the IMF and the EU [European Union] – and make tremendous demands on the country: increase taxes, cut back on spending, sell public sector utilities to private companies, things like power companies and water systems, transportation systems, privatize those, and basically become a slave to us, to the corporations, to the IMF, in your case to the EU, and basically, organizations like the World Bank, the IMF, the EU, are tools of the big corporations, what I call the “corporatocracy.”

        And before turning specifically to the case of Greece, let’s talk a little bit more about the manner in which these economic hit men and these organizations like the IMF operate. You mentioned, of course, how they go in and they work to get these countries into massive debt, that money goes in and then goes straight back out. You also mentioned in your book these overly optimistic growth forecasts that are sold to the politicians of these countries but which really have no resemblance to reality.

        Exactly, we’d show that if these investments were made in things like electric energy systems that the economy would grow at phenomenally high rates. The fact of the matter is, when you invest in these big infrastructure projects, you do see economic growth, however, most of that growth reflects the wealthy getting wealthier and wealthier; it doesn’t reflect the majority of the people, and we’re seeing that in the United States today.

        “In the case of Greece, my reaction was that ‘Greece is being hit.’ There’s no question about it.”

        For example, where we can show economic growth, growth in the GDP, but at the same time unemployment may be going up or staying level, and foreclosures on houses may be going up or staying stable. These numbers tend to reflect the very wealthy, since they have a huge percentage of the economy, statistically speaking. Nevertheless, we would show that when you invest in these infrastructure projects, your economy does grow, and yet, we would even show it growing much faster than it ever conceivably would, and that was only used to justify these horrendous, incredibly debilitating loans.

        Is there a common theme with respect to the countries typically targeted? Are they, for instance, rich in resources or do they typically possess some other strategic importance to the powers that be?

        Yes, all of those. Resources can take many different forms: One is the material resources like minerals or oil; another resource is strategic location; another resource is a big marketplace or cheap labor. So, different countries make different requirements. I think what we’re seeing in Europe today isn’t any different, and that includes Greece.

        What happens once these countries that are targeted are indebted? How do these major powers, these economic hit men, these international organizations come back and get their “pound of flesh,” if you will, from the countries that are heavily in debt?

        By insisting that the countries adopt policies that will sell their publicly owned utility companies, water and sewage systems, maybe schools, transportation systems, even jails, to the big corporations. Privatize, privatize. Allow us to build military bases on their soil. Many things can be done, but basically, they become servants to what I call the corporatocracy. You have to remember that today we have a global empire, and it’s not an American empire. It’s not a national empire. It doesn’t help the American people very much. It’s a corporate empire, and the big corporations rule. They control the politics of the United States, and to a large degree they control a great deal of the policies of countries like China, around the world.

        John, looking specifically now at the case of Greece, of course you mentioned your belief that the country has become the victim of economic hit men and these international organizations . . . what was your reaction when you first heard about the crisis in Greece and the measures that were to be implemented in the country?

        I’ve been following Greece for a long time. I was on Greek television. A Greek film company did a documentary called “Apology of an Economic Hit Man,” and I also spent a lot of time in Iceland and in Ireland. I was invited to Iceland to help encourage the people there to vote on a referendum not to repay their debts, and I did that and encouraged them not to, and they did vote no, and as a result, Iceland is doing quite well now economically compared to the rest of Europe. Ireland, on the other hand: I tried to do the same thing there, but the Irish people apparently voted against the referendum, though there’s been many reports that there was a lot of corruption.

        “That’s part of the game: convince people that they’re wrong, that they’re inferior. The corporatocracy is incredibly good at that.”

        In the case of Greece, my reaction was that “Greece is being hit.” There’s no question about it. Sure, Greece made mistakes, your leaders made some mistakes, but the people didn’t really make the mistakes, and now the people are being asked to pay for the mistakes made by their leaders, often in cahoots with the big banks. So, people make tremendous amounts of money off of these so-called “mistakes,” and now, the people who didn’t make the mistakes are being asked to pay the price. That’s consistent around the world: We’ve seen it in Latin America. We’ve seen it in Asia. We’ve seen it in so many places around the world.

        This leads directly to the next question I had: From my observation, at least in Greece, the crisis has been accompanied by an increase in self-blame or self-loathing; there’s this sentiment in Greece that many people have that the country failed, that the people failed . . . there’s hardly even protest in Greece anymore, and of course there’s a huge “brain drain” – there’s a lot of people that are leaving the country. Does this all seem familiar to you when comparing to other countries in which you’ve had personal experience?

        Sure, that’s part of the game: convince people that they’re wrong, that they’re inferior. The corporatocracy is incredibly good at that, whether it is back during the Vietnam War, convincing the world that the North Vietnamese were evil; today it’s the Muslims. It’s a policy of them versus us: We are good. We are right. We do everything right. You’re wrong. And in this case, all of this energy has been directed at the Greek people to say “you’re lazy; you didn’t do the right thing; you didn’t follow the right policies,” when in actuality, an awful lot of the blame needs to be laid on the financial community that encouraged Greece to go down this route. And I would say that we have something very similar going on in the United States, where people here are being led to believe that because their house is being foreclosed that they were stupid, that they bought the wrong houses; they overspent themselves.

        “We know that austerity does not work in these situations.”

        The fact of the matter is their bankers told them to do this, and around the world, we’ve come to trust bankers – or we used to. In the United States, we never believed that a banker would tell us to buy a $500,000 house if in fact we could really only afford a $300,000 house. We thought it was in the bank’s interest not to foreclose. But that changed a few years ago, and bankers told people who they knew could only afford a $300,000 house to buy a $500,000 house.

        “Tighten your belt, in a few years that house will be worth a million dollars; you’ll make a lot of money” . . . in fact, the value of the house went down; the market dropped out; the banks foreclosed on these houses, repackaged them, and sold them again. Double whammy. The people were told, “you were stupid; you were greedy; why did you buy such an expensive house?” But in actuality, the bankers told them to do this, and we’ve grown up to believe that we can trust our bankers. Something very similar on a larger scale happened in so many countries around the world, including Greece.

        In Greece, the traditional major political parties are, of course, overwhelmingly in favor of the harsh austerity measures that have been imposed, but also we see that the major business and media interests are also overwhelmingly in support. Does this surprise you in the slightest?

        No, it doesn’t surprise me and yet it’s ridiculous because austerity does not work. We’ve proven that time and time again, and perhaps the greatest proof was the opposite, in the United States during the Great Depression, when President Roosevelt initiated all these policies to put people back to work, to pump money into the economy. That’s what works. We know that austerity does not work in these situations.

        “What I didn’t realize during any of this period was how much corporatocracy does not want a united Europe.”

        We also have to understand that, in the United States for example, over the past 40 years, the middle class has been on the decline on a real dollar basis, while the economy has been increasing. In fact, that’s pretty much happened around the world. Globally, the middle class has been in decline. Big business needs to recognize – it hasn’t yet, but it needs to recognize – that that serves nobody’s long-term interest, that the middle class is the market. And if the middle class continues to be in decline, whether it’s in Greece or the United States or globally, ultimately businesses will pay the price; they won’t have customers. Henry Ford once said: “I want to pay all my workers enough money so they can go out and buy Ford cars.” That’s a very good policy. That’s wise. This austerity program moves in the opposite direction and it’s a foolish policy.

        In your book, which was written in 2004, you expressed hope that the euro would serve as a counterweight to American global hegemony, to the hegemony of the US dollar. Did you ever expect that we would see in the European Union what we are seeing today, with austerity that is not just in Greece but also in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and also several other countries as well?

        What I didn’t realize during any of this period was how much corporatocracy does not want a united Europe. We need to understand this. They may be happy enough with the euro, with one currency – they are happy to a certain degree by having it united enough that markets are open – but they do not want standardized rules and regulations. Let’s face it, big corporations, the corporatocracy, take advantage of the fact that some countries in Europe have much more lenient tax laws, some have much more lenient environmental and social laws, and they can pit them against each other.

        “[Rafael Correa] … has to be aware that if you stand up too strongly against the system, if the economic hit men are not happy, if they don’t get their way, then the jackals will come in and assassinate you or overthrow you in a coup.”

        What would it be like for big corporations if they didn’t have their tax havens in places like Malta or other places? I think we need to recognize that what the corporatocracy saw at first, the solid euro, a European union seemed like a very good thing, but as it moved forward, they could see that what was going to happen was that social and environmental laws and regulations were going to be standardized. They didn’t want that, so to a certain degree what’s been going on in Europe has been because the corporatocracy wants Europe to fail, at least on a certain level.

        You wrote about the examples of Ecuador and other countries, which after the collapse of oil prices in the late ’80s found themselves with huge debts and this, of course, led to massive austerity measures . . . sounds all very similar to what we are now seeing in Greece. How did the people of Ecuador and other countries that found themselves in similar situations eventually resist?

        Ecuador elected a pretty remarkable president, Rafael Correa, who has a PhD in economics from a United States university. He understands the system, and he understood that Ecuador took on these debts back when I was an economic hit man and the country was ruled by a military junta that was under the control of the CIA and the US. That junta took on these huge debts, put Ecuador in deep debt; the people didn’t agree to that. When Rafael Correa was democratically elected, he immediately said, “We’re not paying these debts; the people did not take on these debts; maybe the IMF should pay the debts and maybe the junta, which of course was long gone – moved to Miami or someplace – should pay the debts, maybe John Perkins and the other economic hit men should pay the debts, but the people shouldn’t.”

        And since then, he’s been renegotiating and bringing the debts way down and saying, “We might be willing to pay some of them.” That was a very smart move; it reflected similar things that had been done at different times in places like Brazil and Argentina, and more recently, following that model, Iceland, with great success. I have to say that Correa has had some real setbacks since then . . . he, like so many presidents, has to be aware that if you stand up too strongly against the system, if the economic hit men are not happy, if they don’t get their way, then the jackals will come in and assassinate you or overthrow you in a coup. There was an attempted coup against him; there was a successful coup in a country not too far away from him, Honduras, because these presidents stood up.

        We have to realize that these presidents are in very, very vulnerable positions, and ultimately we the people have to stand up, because leaders can only do a certain amount. Today, in many places, leaders are not just vulnerable; it doesn’t take a bullet to bring down a leader anymore. A scandal – a sex scandal, a drug scandal – can bring down a leader. We saw that happen to Bill Clinton, to Strauss-Kahn of the IMF; we’ve seen it happen a number of times. These leaders are very aware that they are in very vulnerable positions: If they stand up or go against the status quo too strongly, they’re going to be taken out, one way or another. They’re aware of that, and it behooves we the people to really stand up for our own rights.

        You mentioned the recent example of Iceland . . . other than the referendum that was held, what other measures did the country adopt to get out of this spiral of austerity and to return to growth and to a much more positive outlook for the country?

        It’s been investing money in programs that put people back to work and it’s also been putting on trial some of the bankers that caused the problems, which has been a big uplift in terms of morale for the people. So Iceland has launched some programs that say “No, we’re not going to go into austerity; we’re not going to pay back these loans; we’re going to put the money into putting people back to work,” and ultimately that’s what drives an economy, people working. If you’ve got high unemployment, like you do in Greece today, extremely high unemployment, the country’s always going to be in trouble. You’ve got to bring down that unemployment, you’ve got to hire people. It’s so important to put people back to work. Your unemployment is about 28 percent; it’s staggering, and disposable income has dropped 40 percent and it’s going to continue to drop if you have high unemployment. So, the important thing for an economy is to get the employment up and get disposable income back up, so that people will invest in their country and in goods and services.

        In closing, what message would you like to share with the people of Greece, as they continue to experience and to live through the very harsh results of the austerity policies that have been implemented in the country for the past three years?

        I want to draw upon Greece’s history. You’re a proud, strong country, a country of warriors. The mythology of the warrior to some degree comes out of Greece, and so does democracy! And to realize that the marketplace is a democracy today, and how we spend our money is casting our ballot. Most political democracies are corrupt, including that of the United States. Democracy is not really working on a governmental basis because the corporations are in charge. But it is working on a market basis. I would encourage the people of Greece to stand up: Don’t pay off those debts; have your own referendums; refuse to pay them off; go to the streets and strike.

        And so, I would encourage the Greek people to continue to do this. Don’t accept this criticism that it’s your fault, you’re to blame, you’ve got to suffer austerity, austerity, austerity. That only works for the rich people; it does not work for the average person or the middle class. Build up that middle class; bring employment back; bring disposable income back to the average citizen of Greece. Fight for that; make it happen; stand up for your rights; respect your history as fighters and leaders in democracy, and show the world!

    Jul 05, 2015 05:05 AM

    The stock market maybe very cruel on Monday to speculators/investors who could easily become ” BAGHOLDERS”, Greece will be a factor but so will The Chinese stock market which is currently in meltdown mode. When the bell opens on Monday morning it will immediately become apparent which way the wind blows.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:20 AM

      Well DT, on that note, I’ll be up watching the overseas markets this evening, and up closely monitoring, or trading in the pre-markets if things are getting turbulent. Chaos in the markets can also be opportunity. We’ll see how the winds on the markets blow.

        Jul 05, 2015 05:32 AM

        So true Shad, I am completely out as of Friday and getting back in is easy but getting out too late is sometimes like the Greeks are finding out a tough proposition and costly.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:29 AM

          well said DT.

        Jul 05, 2015 05:48 AM

        Chaos is definitely opportunity, Shad!

          Jul 05, 2015 05:07 PM

          Yes sir, boring sideways markets don’t make either the longs or the shorts money. At least we should see a little movement in the markets this week.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:50 AM

      Thanks, Dick.

      Interesting times, huh!

    Jul 05, 2015 05:29 AM

    Great interview with Ron Paul on his new book and the future of the Empire and the economy.

    http://scotthorton.org/interviews/2015/07/03/7315-ron-paul/

    Jul 05, 2015 05:51 AM

    Greek polls predicting slim ‘No’ vote to win. Hallelujah for democracy and for faith over fear.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:59 AM

      I believe that if I accurately understand the situation,I completely agree with you Reverend.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:03 AM

      So how do you see the markets shaping up for next week?

    Jul 05, 2015 05:58 AM
    Jul 05, 2015 05:01 AM

    Looks a “No” vote. I have read rumors that there are already Drachmas printed.

    I wonder what would happen if Greece announces the Drachma backed by fractional gold. Greece is # 32 on the world list of reserves. It still has operating mines.

    Cannot find list comparing gold reserves to money supply by country.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:34 AM

      Brian – check out some of the 200 Day Gold & Silver miner composite charts posted up above. Many of the stocks you are following have been doing incredibly well (Klondex, Kirkland Lake, etc…). I thought you may dig them.

    Jul 05, 2015 05:09 AM

    The collapse of stock prices on The Chinese exchange presents an interesting scenario, I read that 2.4 trillion dollars has been wiped out in the last few trading days. Now apparently The Chinese government is getting involved by buying securities in the open market even though their stock markets are still way overvalued.
    I think it would be more prudent if they were to put pressure on their Central Banks to borrow only for what are termed legitimate business purposes instead of throwing money at an overheated market. If their market continues to fall next week they could see a pinch in money and they are presented with having to print a lot more and make sure this money get’s to where it is most needed in a hurry, the old story haste makes waste comes to mind. The rate for call money could then jump upwards and now you have the worst of all situations a falling market and upward rates. The pinch is the problem when the trap is set. DT

    Jul 05, 2015 05:19 AM
    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:51 AM

    HERE YOU ARE FOLKS – RETRIEVED 3 MINUTES AGO FROM:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718775/Greek-referendum-day-results-live.html
    __________________________________________________________________
    Greek Referendum Day results live: Greeks on course to give historic ‘Big No’ to eurozone bail-out deal

    After 10pc of the vote is counted, Greeks look to have voted ‘No’ with a 60pc majority against Europe’s bail-out conditions

    By Mehreen Khan
    6:30PM BST 05 Jul 2015

    Follow Comments
    90000
    2015-07-05 18:31:18.0

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718775/Greek-referendum-day-results-live.html?service=artBody
    This page will automatically update every 90 secondsOn Off • Polls close showing narrow edge for ‘No’; first official projections from 7pm
    • EU Schulz: Greeks will need a new currency after ‘No’
    • One of big four banks on brink of running out of notes
    • Central bank governor could take charge of technocratic government
    • What happens next?
    • Time to face reality: Greece needs mass debt relief now
    • Referendum gallery

    If you’re Greek and voting today, get in touch with your thoughts: mehreen.khan@telegraph.co.uk

    18.26 BST

    That ‘No’ margin is creeping up as more votes are counted. Now over 60pc with 13pc counted

    05-07-2015 20:24
    REGISTERED 1.066.224
    REPORTING 13.58%
    VOTED 55.85%
    INVALID/BLANK 5.58%

    NO= 60.22%
    YES= 39.78%
    ____________________________________________________________________

    —LFP

      Jul 05, 2015 05:02 AM

      I believe that only 20% of the vote is in. Am I wrong?

    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:54 AM

    Greek Referendum Day results live: Greeks on course to give historic ‘Big No’ to eurozone bail-out deal

    After 10pc of the vote is counted, Greeks look to have voted ‘No’ with a 60pc majority against Europe’s bail-out conditions

    By Mehreen Khan
    6:30PM BST 05 Jul 2015

    Follow Comments
    90000
    2015-07-05 18:31:18.0

    This page will automatically update every 90 secondsOn Off • Polls close showing narrow edge for ‘No’; first official projections from 7pm
    • EU Schulz: Greeks will need a new currency after ‘No’
    • One of big four banks on brink of running out of notes
    • Central bank governor could take charge of technocratic government
    • What happens next?
    • Time to face reality: Greece needs mass debt relief now
    • Referendum gallery

    18.26 BST
    That ‘No’ margin is creeping up as more votes are counted. Now over 60pc with 13pc counted

    05-07-2015 20:24
    REGISTERED 1.066.224
    REPORTING 13.58%
    VOTED 55.85%
    INVALID/BLANK 5.58%

    NO= 60.22%
    YES= 39.78%
    __________________________________________________________________________________

    Jul 05, 2015 05:10 AM

    The barn door will be wide open if it is “NO” for Greece. The ECB and IMF will no longer be viewed as the saviors of economies.

    CFS
    Jul 05, 2015 05:11 AM

    5.6%. Of all ballots are invalid!?!
    I have never seen such a high number in any election!

    That’s 56,000 invalid ballots per million of votes. That is over a normal rate by more than an order of magnitude!

      LFP
      Jul 05, 2015 05:18 AM

      Well, CFS, it appears you’ve just witnessed history establishing a ”…new order of magnitude…”.

      At any rate, it ”…ain’t over till the ”Fat Lady sings”

        Jul 05, 2015 05:54 PM

        She is WARMING UP………..MAYBE A solo…..or sold out concert……..

        CFS
        Jul 05, 2015 05:39 PM

        Don’t get me wrong. I think the best decision for the Greeks is to vote No, but I did not expect it. It means going to the Drachma, high inflation for a year or two, and serious losses for a lot of people.
        Also, if the Communist party remains in power, the Greeks will ultimately have their economy wrecked again.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:50 PM

          Practice makes perfect…………..they may have a commin up party for the commies……

      LFP
      Jul 05, 2015 05:34 AM

      And, BTW, is ” *******/BLANK ” a term excluded from your dictionary/thesaurus ???

    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:52 AM
    Jul 05, 2015 05:04 PM

    David Joy, the Boston-based chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. has said the ‘No’ vote could cause chaos: “The market right now hasn’t priced in a potential ‘no’ vote.

    “If we get one, we’re going to see another round of downside volatility in excess of what we saw on Monday. The move would be more violent.”

    Jul 05, 2015 05:25 PM
      Jul 05, 2015 05:42 PM

      Hi Bob,

      Are you still bike riding? I try to ride a few miles a day to help stay healthy.

        Jul 05, 2015 05:21 PM

        Yep, every day if possible. Good for heart, lungs and everything. Great for the mind also. Not so great for bottoms though.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:25 PM

          I walk about 18 miles a day riding a few miles is nothing. DF

            Jul 05, 2015 05:33 PM

            Hey, no fair! You’re a super hero. 🙂

            Jul 05, 2015 05:37 PM

            Where do you go?

            Jul 05, 2015 05:07 PM

            That is impressive. How much time do you spend DT

            Jul 05, 2015 05:40 PM

            I go for two walks the first one is for an hour in the morning so I can get a feel for the weather, in the afternoon I spend three hours and I have ten to twelve different routes I will go on, non stop of course. Toronto is a fairly safe city so you only need to be aware of the automobile traffic. That is why I want to live here everything is accessible on foot, a car is not required.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:38 PM

            Again DT you are my hero. I am actually serious!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:48 PM

            Also I must add that Toronto has about twenty seven miles underground downtown called the path so when the weather is really miserable I will go there but that is hardly ever an option for me, I love being outside. Like Winston Churchill I am an all weather person you just dress for the occasion.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:37 PM

            I can’t imagine eighteen miles in Toronto outdoors in February. More power to you Dt

          Jul 05, 2015 05:30 PM

          Yes. I need to get a different seat, also. One that is more comfortable.

          Today I rode 8.291 miles. Over twice as far as I usually ride on the week days. Top speed 22.1 mph, average speed 11.2 mph. (I have one of those wireless speedometer gizmos that keeps track of all that stuff.)

          It was about 96 degrees in the shade so a challenging ride (luckily not much humidity).

            Jul 05, 2015 05:20 PM

            Eddy,

            If you “don’t see so well any more” what are you doing riding a bike at 22.1 mph? I hope you are wearing glasses and a helmet and watch out for pedestrians and auto-mobiles.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:22 PM

            Mr. Helm, my distance sight isn’t so bad, although I should probably get a helmet. Almost got run over the other day but it wasn’t my fault, honest. Some woman in a minivan almost pulled out in front of me.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:29 PM

            Stay safe, Eddie, we do not want to lose you!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:30 PM

            Eddy, if you get run over whose fault it was will be the least of your worries.

            It sounds like you need to slow down and pay more attention. Ride defensively.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:04 PM

          Probably kind of like my cardio rehab. (Only a lot more fun and you don’t have to get all wired up!)

            Jul 05, 2015 05:22 PM

            Yes, plus there are bike trails where I live.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:45 PM

      Good ol’ Paul – one of our more worthy reporters.

        CFS
        Jul 05, 2015 05:53 PM

        . Paul Mason, isn’t he economics reporter for BBC 4?
        Since when is anything on BBC commentary not socialist trash?
        The BBC has given up credibility in editorials as far as I’m concerned. Although I listen to Radio 4 in the absence of a news channel, I really stop trusting the Beeb a decade ago.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:21 PM

          He is on Channel 4.

          Jul 06, 2015 06:27 AM

          CFS he made a deliberate move away from the BBC

    Jul 05, 2015 05:41 PM

    Puerto Rico next as it seeks access to U.S. bankruptcy courts.

    http://thehill.com/policy/finance/246820-puerto-rican-debt-crisis-hits-congress

      Jul 05, 2015 05:38 PM

      Yup. And then who is next?

      Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy? Maybe Japan melts down? Maybe some US municipalities?

    Jul 05, 2015 05:27 PM

    Someone is screwing with the gold chart……… .12cent spike………lol

      Jul 05, 2015 05:14 PM

      sorry, read the report to early………….now up $7.50

    Jul 05, 2015 05:16 PM

    Well, Greece told the Eurocrats where to go. And it wasn’t even close.

    But I think Mish Shadlock is right about that decision and what lies ahead.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/07/overwhelming-no-vote-way-forward.html

      Jul 05, 2015 05:17 PM

      Oops…Mish Shedlock…I seem to have conflated Mish and Shad.

        Jul 05, 2015 05:38 PM

        maybe I’ll start going by Mish Shadlock….it has a nice ring Ebolan.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:43 PM

          Or Shad Mishlock. 🙂

            Jul 05, 2015 05:54 PM

            funny.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:44 PM

          Sorry, I make a lot of typos. Don’t see so well, anymore.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:58 PM

            It’s OK. Other friends of mine have been taking jabs at me up above too.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:02 PM

            My typos are infamous. Just ask my friend Angus. I once left the g out of his name.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:08 PM

            Ha. whoops!

            Jul 05, 2015 05:14 PM

            Eddy,

            I think I speak for everyone here when I say you always make us laugh…even if you do not intend to.

            Jul 05, 2015 05:10 PM

            You too, Eddie!

      Jul 05, 2015 05:17 PM

      Futures not doing much on this news.

    CFS
    Jul 05, 2015 05:45 PM

    In the spirit of education, I present the following written by Dr. London:
    President Obama invariably asserts that he is seeking solutions for what ails the nation. He claims to be a pragmatist, a position confirmed by members of the press corps. But whether he realizes it or not, he has an ideological forebearer who has set the stage for this administration’s agenda: Antonio Gramsci.
    Antonio was an Italian Marxism, who wished for a communist revolution in Italy, but on realizing that not possible set up a set of techniques to transform a society into Marxism without a violent revolution.

    Gramsci, while still in his twenties, organized the Italian Communist party in 1921 with his colleague Togliotti. Since this was four years after the Russian Revolution, Gramsci assumed Italians would welcome a Bolshevik convulsion of their own. But it didn’t happen.

    In reviewing the political landscape, Gramsci sought to explain why what seemed to him inevitable had not yet occurred. He found three explanations: Christianity, nationalism and charity. As he explains in his writing, the way to set the stage for a Marxist revolution was in coming to grips with these three conditions.

    As a consequence, Gramsci converted Marxist economic theory into a cultural battle — as he saw it, a march through conventional and normative institutions. The first stratagem was the assault on Christianity by arguing religion should not inform or be employed in public discourse. Gramsci realized that if religion were confined to private worship, its hold on Italians would dissipate. Hence his arguments relied on science (more accurately scientism) and material claims devoid of references to the Church and its historic antecedents.

    Second, Italians took great pride in their newly constituted nation fifty years old in the 1920s. Gramsci contended Italians were part of a grand global mission, merely one story in the narrative of mankind. He therefore cleverly attempted to transform national loyalty into an abstract identification with human rights by describing patriotism as an anachronistic and childish fetish.

    And last, Gramsci engaged in efforts to persuade Italians that the way, the only way, to express humanitarian concern for the poor or those left behind as the detritus of capitalism is through a government that can be benevolent and beneficent. For him, big government wasn’t a temptation for tyranny but rather the adjudicator for life’s unfairness.

    Whether recognized by President Obama or not, the parallels are striking. Although devoted to his own faith, President Obama through court decisions and his opposition to charitable trust programs has suggested overtly and tacitly that religion should be a matter relegated to private worship outside the confines of public life.

    Secondly, the appointment of Anne Marie Slaughter to the Policy Planning Group and Susan Rice as Ambassador to the U.N. argue persuasively that the president is committed to a transnational agenda, one that deemphasizes America’s global role and subordinates multinational, institutions, such as the U.N., as the primary channel of American foreign policy. Here is the John Kerry “global approval” position with a vengeance.

    And last, through his proposal to deny tax deductions for charitable gifts, government is being converted into the only public charity. Moreover, the transfer of wealth in the stimulus package and the increased tax burden on the most productive element of society will inevitably decrease incentives and expand the size and influence of government.

    History may repeat itself, but never exactly. My suspicion is most politicians have never heard of Gramsci. I suspect as well that they would reject out of hand any parallel between a communist leader and an American president. But what cannot be rejected is that President Obama is a product of American culture — an elite American culture cultivated by ideas at Harvard, Columbia and University of Chicago. And that culture has been dramatically affected by the Gramscian march through our institutions.

    The progeny of Gramsci are alive and well and now reside in the White House. They believe in big government, one worldism, distrust of religion, and a denial of American exceptionalism. Our leaders may not identify themselves as Gramscians and may even mock the designation, but make no mistake: Gramsci’s DNA is in their bloodstream.

      CFS
      Jul 05, 2015 05:50 PM

      You, Christians, are warned; before the Big Zero leaves office he plans for churches to lose their tax exemption.

        Jul 05, 2015 05:22 PM

        Will not happen.

      Jul 05, 2015 05:20 PM

      Thank you, Professor. The parallels do seem to be there.

      I do kinda think that is the ultimate goal. Consider the recent Supreme Court decisions. Obviously some of the judges know something that we don’t!

      LFP
      Jul 05, 2015 05:27 PM

      CFS:

      With all due respect, who is Dr. London ??

      And when you ”quote” (no syntactical pun intended by the word in quotation marks immediately preceding this bracketed phrase) an excerpt from what you consider to be (at the least, I hope) an expert you might want to include the publication’s title, its date of publication, the publisher and, especially and, most importantly, provide a link to any site, book vendor, or pay-to-download document service.

      You have stated sometime in the past – here on KER – that you were at Oxford.

      Given the foregoing, I think you can easily anticipate the question anybody could ask you at this point (namely, regarding citations, specifically of the verifiable, authoritative variety).

      I await your response, ”…Professor…”

        CFS
        Jul 05, 2015 05:40 PM

        The piece came from a page on loeffler’s show “Steel on Steel” that I copied a couple of years ago. Sorry i don’t have the source any more. Loeffler’s is Puplava’s sidekick on Financialsense.com.
        Several commentators over the last 5 years have noticed and lectured on Obama’s use of Gramsci’s tactics. A Google search will turn up such from the Gramsci society.
        I am not at my home in California, so I only have an iPad with me, which makes it hard to give all the citations and references I would normally give.

        CFS
        Jul 05, 2015 05:33 PM

        Degrees from and also a physics tutor at Mansfield College.

          Jul 05, 2015 05:42 PM

          We have to get together at some point.

    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:31 PM

    HERE’S THE FINAL :
    ________________________________________
    2015-07-06 00:58:23.0
    This page will automatically update every 90 secondsOn Off • ‘No’ vote takes more than a 60pc share of the vote
    • Tsipras vows to continue talks but never cede to blackmail
    • EU leaders call emergency summit for Tuesday
    • AEP : defiant Greeks reject EU demands as Syriza readies IOU currency
    • Time to face reality: Greece needs mass debt relief now

    00.55
    Police are standing guard outside the Greek parliament in Athens tonight.

    00.36
    Yanis Varoufakis has rejected the idea of a parallel currency, saying Greece will remain in the Euro.
    “Gr place in € is non-negotiable. Liquidity will return with agreement. Euro will not be left w parallel currencies” https://t.co/3pPYA5cY98
    — Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) July 5, 2015

    00.25
    The Telegraph’s Tim Stanley argues here that it is time for the EU to forgive, show compassion and restructure Greece’s debt.
    “How much better the world would be if we could all walk a few steps in each other’s shoes? If so, we might conclude that Greek social democracy was a greedy dud and that the country must reform – whatever its blowhard government says. But we might also feel the pain of one of the teachers with a third less pay, or one of the 50 per cent of Greek kids without a job. What was the point of the European experiment but to uplift our fellow Europeans? If the price of the project is to stamp on the face of Greece for eternity with an iron boot, then we should consider walking away from this madness in disgust.”

    23.55
    The Grexit losers table
    Read it and weep Germany. Europe’s largest creditor has the greatest financial exposure should the Greece decide to leave the euro and default on their debt. Table courtesy of Barclays
    Who stands to lose from Grexit? German exposure at €29bn – total eurosystem tops €100bn (via Barclays) pic.twitter.com/bCXkgd2DwD
    — Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) July 5, 2015

    23.50
    Anarchists paint the town red
    Some pics coming in of riot police trying to avoid a petrol bomb thrown by anarchists during clashes in Athens tonight

    Non de Zues
    France’s left leaning Liberation skillfully avoids a hackneyed refernce to the Classics with this powerful front cover tomorrow morning
    Monday’s Libération front page: Non de Zeus Earthquake in Europe #tomorrowspaperstoday #greekreferendum pic.twitter.com/5IQ9sbsoCZ
    — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) July 5, 2015

    23.00
    Global markets braced for Monday morning sell-off
    Financial markets are set for their worst period of turmoil for nearly three years as Greeks landed a bloody nose to their creditors.

    “Look initially for a general sell-off in global equities, along with price pressures on the bonds issued by Greece, other peripheral eurozone economies and emerging markets,” warned Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz.

    Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 it set to open 2.2pcpc lower by 150 points on Monday morning according to IG. Germany’s DAX was expected to fall 4pc, with US stocks in the red by 1.3pc.

    The euro dropped by 1.2pc against the dollar as results showing a 60pc majority for the ‘No’ vote trickled in.

    Among the beneficiaries from the sell-off will be the Swiss franc which saw fresh inflows following the decision to announce a referendum last week. It forced the Swiss National Bank to intervene to hold down the value of the franc as the spectre of a Greek exit draws ever-closer.

    “Grexit” has now become the base-case scenario for a number of economists. Analysts at Teneo Intelligence put the liklihood at 75pc.

    The ECB however is expected to wait until July 20 – when it is owed €3.5bn from the Greek government before pull ELA. Should the governing council decide to take such action, Greece will be on the inexorable path of a disorderly eurozone exit, warned Barclays

    23.00
    Dijsselbloem: “I regret the result”
    President of the eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem is not hugely enthralled by prospect of sitting aroung a table with Mr Varoufakis again.

    Here’s a statement from him tonight. Cheer up Jeroen.
    I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece. For recovery of the Greek economy, difficult measures and reforms are inevitable. We will now wait for the initiatives of the Greek authorities. The Eurogroup will discuss the state of play on Tuesday 7 July.

    22.22
    European Commission “respects” result
    The European Commission “respects” the result of the Greece bailout referendum, it said in a short statement on Sunday, after Greek voters overwhelmingly rejected terms offered by international creditors.

    Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker will hold a teleconference on Monday morning with European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, the statement added.

    22.11
    I have called a #EuroSummit Tuesday evening at 18h to discuss situation after referendum in #Greece
    — Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) July 5, 2015

    Juncker consulting eurozone heads of states tonight and tomorrow. Conf call w/ Tusk, Dijsselbloem & Draghi Monday morning. #GreeceCrisis
    — Jarno Hartikainen (@JarnoHa) July 5, 2015

    21.53
    Barclays: Grexit now likely
    Analysts at Barclays now see a Greek exit as their base case scenario. They say the actions of the ECB are now crucial in the coming weeks but expect July 20 to be the day liquidity is cut off and the banks on the verge of collapse. In such a scenario and without a new bail-out, the government will have to resort to IOUs and new Drachmas to recapitalise the banking system.

    From Barclays tonight:
    “How long Greece can stay in the euro without a financial assistance programme will depend on the ECB’s willingness to continue to provide liquidity to its banking sector and the consequence of a default on the bonds held by the ECB in its SMP portfolio on 20 July. If there is no agreement on a programme, the ECB will shut down ELA no later than 20 July. Banks will then not only be illiquid but would then turn insolvent. As a result, the lack of financing would trigger a collapse of the Greek economy. This situation could not last more than a few days, beyond which the Greek government would have to decide to take back the control over the central bank of Greece and force it to provide liquidity support to Greek banks, therefore printing de facto another currency. This would clearly be a violation of the Treaty and would certainly put Greece outside the monetary union.”

    21.37
    Tsipras: referendum result shows ‘democracy won’t be blackmailed’
    Alexis Tsipras has also now spoken. He says he will convene a meeting of political party leaders on Monday morning. He says the debt issue will now be on the negotiating table but that the vote does not mean a break with Europe.

    “With the difficult circumstances prevailing today you made a very brave choice.
    “I’m fully aware the mandate you gave me is not one of a rupture with Europe but a mandate to strengthen our negotiating position to seek a viable solution.”
    “This is not a mandate of rupture with Europe, but a mandate that bolsters our negotiating strength to achieve a viable deal.”

    21.35
    Slovakia’s finance minister and deputy prime minister is very disappointed:
    I’m disappointed with what now seems to be the final result of the referendum in #Greece
    — Peter Ka?imír (@KazimirPeter) July 5, 2015

    21.33
    ECB ‘to keep reduced lifeline for Greek banks’
    European Central Bank policy setters are likely to maintain emergency funding for Greek banks at its current restricted level, people familiar with the matter have told Reuters, following Greece’s rejection in a referendum of bailout conditions.
    Such a move would give Greek banks little time before they use up all of the roughly 89 billion euros of funding available and ensure that they remain closed for at least the coming days.
    But it would avoid the drastic option of withdrawing existing support, a measure that would trigger their immediate collapse.

    21.15
    Samaras resigns
    BREAKING: Greek conservative opposition leader Antonis Samaras announces his resignation, sparking cheers in the Athens crowd.
    “Our party needs a new start. As of today, I’m resigning from the leadership of New Democracy,” Mr Samaras said in a televised statement.
    Merkel and Hollande are reportedly calling for a special summit to be held on the Greece crisis on Tuesday.
    With close to 80 per cent of votes counted, No stands at 62pc, Yes on 38pc

    21.14
    Defiant Greeks reject EU demands as Syriza readies IOU currency
    The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports that Greek voters have rejected the austerity demands of Europe’s creditor powers by a stunning margin, sweeping aside warnings that this could lead to the collapse of the banking system and a return to the drachma.

    Early returns in the historic referendum showed the No side -Oxi in Greek =- running at 61pc versus 39pc for the Yes side as the Greek people turned out en masse to vent their anger over six years of economic depression and national humiliation. A volcanic revolt appeared to have swept through Greek islands.

    21.06
    Greek referendum result ‘must be accepted’
    The Greek referendum result has to be accepted, and the ball is now in Athens’ court for the next steps, Germany’s foreign minister has said.
    “We have now to accept such a result, it is the result of a referendum which the Greek people took part. What conclusions can be made is first and foremost a decision for Greece, therefore the ball is now in Athens’ court,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in Vienna.
    However, the president of Germany’s Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) Anton Börner predicts the end of Greece’s membership of the eurozone after the “no” vote winning in the Greek referendum, newspaper Die Welt reported. “It will be unavoidable,” he said when asked whether a Grexit could be averted.

    21.01
    Varoufakis: Europe’s heart is beating in Greece tonight
    More from the press conference by Yanis Varoufakis. The finance minister said a no vote was was a vote in favour of democracy and social justice that allowed Athens to call on its partners to find a fair deal.
    “As of tommorrow, with this brave ‘No’ the Greek people handed us…. we will extend a helping hand towards our lenders. We will call on each one of them to find common ground,” Varoufakis told reporters. “As of tomorrow, Europe, whose heart is beating in Greece tonight, is starting to heal its wounds, our wounds. Today’s No is a big Yes to democratic Europe.”

    20.52
    ‘The people have spoken’
    The Telegraph’s Nick Squires reports from Athens’ Syntagma Square:
    Manos Agelidis, 27, voted no and was celebrating in Syntagma Square with a can of beer. “It was an expression of the will of the people,” he said. “They were very angered by the stance that the EU showed in the last few days. This will make Tsipras much stronger in his negotiations now. Syriza has a stronger mandate,” the 27 yr old phd student said.

    20.42
    German vice-chancellor: Tsipras has torn down the bridge of compromise
    Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s socialist party leader, is not a happy bunny

    BREAKING: German Vice Chancellor Gabriel – Tsipras has torn down last bridge of compromise. #GreeceReferendum #GreekCrisis
    — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) July 5, 2015

    20.39
    Yanis Varoufakis is giving an impromptu press conference in a t-shirt. He’s come out fighting and has told creditors he is ready to seek “common ground” should they want it

    #Varoufakis: From the very first moment creditors wanted to close our banks and humiliate us #Greece
    — Kathimerini English (@ekathimerini) July 5, 2015

    #Varoufakis: we will try to cooperate with our partners, seek common ground #Greece #referendum
    — Kathimerini English (@ekathimerini) July 5, 2015

    Aggressive statement by Varoufakis: For 5 months creditors refused substantial negotiations, imposed closed banks, planned our humiliation
    — NikiKitsantonis (@NikiKitsantonis) July 5, 2015

    20.20
    Expect the celebrations to continue into the night

    20.11
    The euro has tanked…
    Down nearly 3/4’s of a percent in Asian trading
    Eur opens for trading http://t.co/4KBbdVDPxB pic.twitter.com/w3Z458AoFP
    — Bloomberg Markets (@markets) July 5, 2015

    20.10
    Prepare for a global equity sell-offs
    Markets have remained reasonably sanguine about Grexit up until now. But expect tomorrow to be a day of flight for equity investors say Mo El Erian at Allianz. His thoughts:

    1. Exit polls out of Greece, as well as very early ballot results, suggest that the “NO’s” may have prevailed at today’s referendum.
    2. IF this historic “no” win is confirmed, look initially for a general selloff in global equities, along with price pressures on the bonds issued by Greece, other peripheral Eurozone economies and emerging markets.
    3. What happens next is a function of three main things:
    • whether Greece and its creditors can work together to reconcile what were two very different interpretations in the run-up to today as to what a “no” outcome means, and do so very quickly and effectively;
    • whether already horrid conditions on the ground, including the high likelihood of further delays in re-opening the banks and significant difficulties getting fresh money into ATMs, provide enough time for the politicians to get their act together; and
    • whether the ECB rolls out new measures to contain contagion.
    4. It may soon be time for all parties involved to shift to their Plan B, with the main aim being to counter as quickly as possible the likelihood of further human suffering, pain and uncertainty.
    5. Europe has the instruments to limit contagion over time and, thus, maintain the integrity of the Eurozone. It is much more doubtful whether, despite its willingness, Greece can restore its status as a full member of the Eurozone.

    20.02
    Give Tsipras a seond chance
    Former Belgian PM and now MEP leader in Brussels, Guy Verhofstadt has called on the EU to give Mr Tsipras a ‘second chance’ should he manage to use his newly strengthened mandate to come up with a credible reform package.
    This comes after the likes of eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem have said they will find it difficult to continue talks with the Hard Left government which has “damaged credibility” in their eyes by calling the snap vote. Watch this space.
    This is not the end. Now up to #Tsipras to propose serious reform package in writing. If he does, EU leaders should give him a 2nd chance
    — Guy Verhofstadt (@GuyVerhofstadt) July 5, 2015

    20.00
    Italy: there is no escape from the Greek labyrinth
    Italy’s foreign minister has summed up the paradoxical mood tonight. He tweets: “Now it is right to start trying for an agreement again. But there is no escape from the Greek labyrinth with a weak Europe that isn’t growing.”
    #Grecia Ora è’ giusto ricominciare a cercare un’intesa. Ma dal labirinto greco non si esce con un’Europa debole e senza crescita
    — Paolo Gentiloni (@PaoloGentiloni) July 5, 2015

    19.50
    German MPs react to the Greeks Big No
    German parliamentarians are reacting to tonight’s news of a probable No victory and they’re hesitant, reports Melanie Hall in Berlin

    Cem Özdemir, one of Germany’s Green Party leaders, was among the first German politicians to comment on the early results of the Greek referendum and expressed concern over initial indications that the “no” campaign had won.
    The problems of the heavily-indebted country would, one way or another, also remain the problems of Europe in the future, he told “Report from Berlin” on German broadcaster ARD on Sunday. “Greece can’t be blown out of Europe”, he said.

    Carsten Schneider, deputy parliamentary leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the junior party in Angela Merkel’s coalition government, described a “no” vote as “a very, very difficult result”.
    He questioned whether negotiations could still continue at all with the Greek government. He referred to the “provocation” of Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and his finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. He added: “I don’t know how one can still find common ground.”
    Meanwhile, senior Merkel ally has dampened any hope that there will be a deal before Tuesday at the earliest.

    BREAKING: Senior German conservative Fuchs says he sees no chance that a solution on Greece can be agreed in the next 48 hours.
    — Reuters Top News (@Reuters) July 5, 2015

    19.46
    How did this happen?
    With polls ahead of today showing both sides in a dead heat, today’s likely 60pc majority for the No side is a big surprise. Plenty of theories abound as to why Greeks have chosen to reject the scare-mongering tactics adopted from EU officials over what the significance of a ‘No’ would mean.
    My personal favourite theory for the swing is that it had something to do with a remarkable intervention from the IMF on Thursday. The Fund’s debt sustainability analysis all but confirmed that lenders have been wrong not to provide Greeks debt relief as part of a new bail-out package. It is the issue which has divided creditors but vindicated Mr Tsipras.
    Never in the course of human history has a debt sustainability analysis changed so much. Props to @IMF
    — Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) July 5, 2015

    19.26
    ‘No’ celebrations begin
    Celebrations have begun in central Athens among ‘No’ voters as lead stands at 61 per cent with around 40 per cent of votes in.
    Greece is facing unprecedented uncertainty, but that hasn’t stopped these Athenians from taking to the streets in delight.

    19.20
    ‘Volatility awaits’
    David Joy, the Boston-based chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. has said the ‘No’ vote could cause chaos: “The market right now hasn’t priced in a potential ‘no’ vote.
    “If we get one, we’re going to see another round of downside volatility in excess of what we saw on Monday. The move would be more violent.”

    19.17
    61% v 39%
    There is a consistent margin of around 61 per cent ‘No’ and 39 per cent ‘Yes’ as votes continue to come in. Up to a third of all votes counted now.

    19.02
    Safe deposit boxes to remain locked
    Greeks cannot withdraw cash left in safe deposit boxes at Greek banks as long as capital restrictions remain in place, Nadia Valavani the deputy finance minister has told Greek television.

    18.53
    What we know as 7pm approaches
    It looks like Greeks have voted by a large margin to reject the austerity terms of an aid package from international creditors.
    With more than 20 per cent of referendum votes counted, the ‘No’ vote led by more than 60 per cent of the vote.
    Greece now enters unknown economic and financial territory, with no clear path to continued European aid and banks closed since Alexis Tsipras suddenly abandoned talks with creditors to call the referendum a week ago.
    The country’s immediate fate lies with the European Central Bank, which may take its cues from European Union leaders as to whether it can keep emergency loans flowing to a country without the prospect of a bailout package.
    “If confirmed, the ‘no’ would not put Greece on autopilot towards Grexit,” Holger Schmieding, an economist in London at financial group Berenberg, said by e-mail. “But it makes it much more difficult to still avoid that fate.”

    18.51
    The ‘Shy Tory’ effect not a Greek thing it seems
    20% counted and is now 61-39 to NO. Official figures 20h35 #Greece time #greekreferendum
    — Ryan Heath (@PoliticoRyan) July 5, 2015

    18.26
    That ‘No’ margin is creeping up as more votes are counted. Now over 60pc with 13pc counted

    Latest
    Greeks: we will have a deal by July 20
    That’s from the PM’s main aide, Nikos Pappas. July 20 is the day Greece is due to pay back €3.5bn to the ECB.
    Meanwhile, the technical teams of the eurozone’s finance ministers are due to meet on Monday, say Greek media (or the euro working group for those who have been reading this blog for too long).

    #Greece State Min Papppas says there will be an agreement until July 20. (the day when ECB’s GGB matures)
    — Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) July 5, 2015

    17.46
    Government comes out fighting
    Coalition partner #Kammenos tweets: Greek people have proven that they cannot be blackmailed, terrorized, threatened. Democracy won #Greece
    — Kathimerini English (@ekathimerini) July 5, 2015

    Gov’t spokesman #Sakellaridis on Greek TV: Negotiations.. must be concluded very soon, even after 48 hours #Greece #referendum
    — Kathimerini English (@ekathimerini) July 5, 2015

    Yanis: So maybe ’24 hours’ for a deal was ambitious…
    “In 24h we COULD have an agreement”, I said. But our toxic media rushed to report that I predicted an agreement within 24h. Go figure!
    — Yanis Varoufakis (@yanisvaroufakis) July 5, 2015

    17.30
    Meanwhile we are getting some reaction from Greek MEP Dimitris Papadimoulis who has said: “Greek people are proving they want to remain in Europe as equal members and not as debt colony.”
    An age breakdown of those TV opinion polls – looks like the younger voters have overwhelmingly voted in favour of Oxi

    17.26
    We needed to cross the 40pc threshold to be valid, and looks like that’s happened. A 65pc turnout say Greek media
    Participation in #Greferendum estimated at 65% (via @AntennaNews) #Greece #euro
    — Manos Giakoumis (@ManosGiakoumis) July 5, 2015

    17.20
    Merkollande to discuss Greece in Paris tomorrow
    This also comes after a host of senior French voices including Mr Hollande have called for talks to resume immediately with Greece, whatever the outcome.
    *MERKEL, HOLLANDE TO JOINTLY ASSESS GREECE SITUATION ON MONDAY
    — Dealingroom (@Dealingroom_EN) July 5, 2015

    17.10
    Summary of TV polls
    These are all within the margin of error, important to note. Early indications however show Greeks are very very divided tonight.
    GPO poll for @MegaGegonota Yes 48.5% No 51.5% outcome range Yes 46.5-50.5% No 49.5-53.5% #Greferendum #Greece
    — MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) July 5, 2015

    Metron Analysis poll of @AntennaNews Yes 46% No 49% invalid/blank 2% undecided 2% #Greferendum #Greece
    — MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) July 5, 2015

    Marc poll for Alpha TV Yes 45.5-50.5% No 49.5-54.5% #Greferendum #Greece
    — MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) July 5, 2015

    MRB poll for Star TV Yes 46-51% No 49-54% #Grefenderum #Greece
    — MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) July 5, 2015

    17.11

    Syriza seem to be taking those not very scientific polls at face value: Flash from Reuters
    GREEK SYRIZA PARLIAMENTARY SPOKESMAN SAYS OPINION POLL RESULTS ALLOWS GOVERNMENT TO MOVE FORWARD QUICKLY AND SEAL DEAL WITH CREDITORS

    17.10
    ‘No’ in the lead
    3 opinion polls, not exit polls importantly, show Greek ‘no’ vote in the lead by a very slight margin. These have been carried out by television companies rather than official pollsters, using phone data from voters.

    Summary of opinion polls from today (via ERT): ‘No’ ahead in all of them. #Greece pic.twitter.com/6ggsIlPuVm
    — Open Europe (@OpenEurope) July 5, 2015

    17.00
    Polls are now shut
    And there we have it. It’s 7pm in Greece and the voting is now shut. We’ve now got around a two hour wait before any results start coming in. No exit polls to report tonight, but you can keep an eye on the official government referendum site here.

    16.48
    Not everyone supports choice in the #greferendum. Two No’s on the island of Evia pic.twitter.com/DPF5qBK9U7
    — Daniel Howden (@daniel_howden) July 5, 2015

    16.40
    All eyes on the banks
    Less than half an hour to before polls close and as we wait for the results, finance ministry chiefs and the Bank of Greece are due to meet almost immediately to discuss the fate of the banking system.
    There are reports the Bank of Greece will make an official request for more liquidity from the ECB tonight. This reflects fears that at least one of the main four Greek banks is suffering from a severe shortage of cash. To be more specific, this is still a liquidity rather than solvency problem for the financial system. However, as the days go by, that distinction may become more and more blurry.

    star tv reports finance ministry meeting with bankers pushed back to 10pm. #GreeceCrisis
    — Diane Shugart (@dianalizia) July 5, 2015

    16.20
    Tsipras ready to negotiate
    More rumours from inside Syriza that they are ready to send their negotiators back to Brussels to thrash a new deal if the country votes ‘No’. Whether or not anyone will be there to recieve them is still anyone’s guess.
    Sources: If there’s a NO tonight Greek govt will send negotiators back to Brussels tomo to recommence negotiations w/ eurogroup immediately
    — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) July 5, 2015

    16.04
    German TV crew pelted with stones in Athens
    Today’s voting has largely passed off without any major incidents of unrest. But, ‘No’ demonstrators have reportedly attacked a crew from German broadcaster ZDF with stones “the size of fists”, reports Melanie Hall in Berlin.
    The crew from German broadcaster ZDF had been queuing next to a group of photographers near the podium at a “no” vote rally in Syntagma Square when they were recognised and pelted with marble stones.

    The ZDF team avoided injury but the stones hit a few photographers who had been standing near the crew at the event on Friday evening when Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister. urged people to vote “no” on a bail-out offer from creditors in today’s referendum.

    One photographer suffered lacerations as the mood in the Greek capital became more aggressive.
    At a demonstration calling for a “yes” vote, journalists and camera crew deemed to be left-wing were threatened with violence.

    15.44
    T-minus 90 minutes until polls close…
    A reminder, no exit polls tonight, but we are hoping to start getting the first trickle of results from 7pm (BST)

    15.15
    Why I’m voting ‘Nai’ (Yes)
    Greek Tewfik Cassis, a graduate of Harvard Business School, has flown back from the US to vote ‘Yes’ in Athens today. Here’s why he thinks Greeks are being subject to “crude manipulation”.

    In general I find today’s referendum to be a “democratic” sham. Voters were given a week to answer a question that they don’t understand (I, myself, inferred what the question might mean) on documents they couldn’t find (I hadn’t seen a copy until Thursday and even then couldn’t assess its veracity).

    We were subject to statements by Tsipras and Varoufakis that border on demagogy (“we are being blackmailed”) as well as crude manipulation of the referendum paper by placing Oxi first.

    Tsipras/Varoufakis claim that in the event of No they have an agreement that has been pre-agreed upon on in their drawers and that the banks will open. This is clearly false. No such agreement exists (even the “yes” is voting on an agreement that isn’t approved by Europe). For all these reasons (as well as their general mismanagement since February) I can not trust this government nough to give them the vote they ask for.

    I have to trust my brain and my brain tells me Greece will be better served in Europe than isolated outside it. For that I vote “nai.”

    Also, I acknowledge that “nai” doesn’t necessarily mean staying in the euro. In fact I would guess we have about a 50% chance in the event of “nai” of staying in the Euro.

    Does Greece need further debt relief? Absolutely. Does austerity need to be tempered? Absolutely. But this is not the way to achieve these goals, this is a way to polarise a society and cripple a nation.

    15.12
    The Yes and No scenarios from Deutsche Bank
    DB have mapped out the various permutations of tonight’s referendum. Their thoughts below (shorter version: it’s complicated)

    A No vote:
    N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
    N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
    N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
    N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities. That said, we see the probability of Grexit increasing the larger is the margin of victory of the NO vote. Even with a NO vote, the cumulative probability of the first three scenarios still exceeds that of Grexit.

    A Yes vote
    We see two main scenarios following a YES. We think the first scenario is the least likely but its probability is not negligible.
    Y1 – Political deadlock & Grexit. With a ‘YES’ vote the likelihood of Grexit will fall significantly. However, in our view it will not be negligible due to implementation risk and lack of trust. Grexit could still materialise if there a political dead lock because either (i) Syriza government remains in office but there is no agreement with creditors or (ii) Syriza resigns but a new government cannot be created in the current parliament or after new elections.
    Y2 – A short-term funding deal and a more balanced third programme are agreed, yielding a higher probability of medium-term success. This scenario could also be reached via several paths, but the most likely is the formation of a new government.
    Irrespective of the referendum outcome, it is unlikely that there is an immediate resolution to the crisis the next day. A YES vote would be significantly more likely to lead to a quicker agreement with the creditors, but not without risks. Nevertheless, any agreement would likely require changes to re-build trust. Ultimately, the economic emergency will remain a key catalyst.

    14.44
    Germans hit back at Varoufakis “terrorism” accusation
    German defence minister Ursula von der Leyen has rejected at criticism hurled by Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis in which he accused international creditors of “terrorism”, reports Melanie Hall in Berlin
    “The comment from Varoufakis is an insult to everyone who suffers under terrorism,” Mrs von der Leyen told the Passauer Neuen Presse newspaper.

    14.19
    New technocrat in charge?
    Now this would be a turn up for the books. AEP has heard rumours that Yannis Stournaras, the current Bank of Greece governor and former finance minister, is set to head up a technocratic government if Mr Tsipras resigns tonight.
    Mr Stounaras is not an uncontroversial choice. He has been pilloried by the Syriza government for warning that Greece will be thrown into apocalyptic turmoil if they ever left the euro – seen as a breach of the institution’s politically neutral line. He has also been sued by one Syriza MP for issuing the report which was denounced by the head of the country’s parliament.
    Watch this space.

    Told that BoG’s Strournaras will take over as Greek PM in charge of technocrat govt if YES vote. 2nd choice: ex-BoG Provopoulos. Can’t vouch
    — A Evans-Pritchard (@AmbroseEP) July 5, 2015

    Mr Stathakis is currently the economics minister and considered a more “moderate” voice compared to the iconoclastic Yanis Varoufakis. Mr Varoufakis repeated today that he will resign should Greeks decide to vote ‘Yes’.

    14.00
    What happens if it’s a ‘Yes’ vote?
    Good question: Some permutations for your lunchtime perusal
    What if Greeks vote Yes?
    Prime minister Alexis Tsipras is likely to step down, although he has yet to make it as clear as his finance minister Yanis Varoufakis who has categorically said he will resign.

    Why should he resign?
    The eurozone have made clear they do not trust Mr Tsipras to carry out a reform package he does not wholeheartedly support. EU officials are keen for any government to claim full “ownership” of controversial reforms such as tax rises and spending cuts. But the Hard Left government has already called such measures “blackmail” and acts of “terrorism” on their recession-hit country.

    What happens if Tsipras steps down?
    A national unity government may have to form. There is precedent for this in Greece. In 2011, technocrat and economist Lucas Papademos took charge of an interim government to impose a new bail-out after the Socialist prime minister stepped down. Such a temporary arrangement may continue until fresh election are called later in the summer.

    Who will take charge?
    We’re not sure. The main opposition leader is former PM Antonis Samaras, but he is unlikely to take the helm having been defeated in an election in January. There are suggestions deputy PM Yannis Dragasakis could take charge. He is a leading moderate voice within Syriza, and would likely gain the asset of the country’s creditors to get back to the negotiating table.

    Does ‘Yes’ mean the banks will open?
    Not quite. The European Central Bank is unlikely to immediately switch the liquidity tap back on after a ‘Yes’ vote. Officially, the bank holiday and capital controls are set to be lifted on Tuesday but there is almost no chance this can happen if they are not injected with new funds. The ECB is likely to wait for a new government to be in place, and for talks to start moving in the right direction before it takes such action.

    13.30
    ‘No’ vote leads last-minute polls
    The FT have seen a last minute opinion poll which puts the ‘Oxi’ or ‘No’ camp in the lead by a very small margin for 51-53pc.
    They note the survey was unpublished but carried out just before voting booths across the country opened.

    Jul 05, 2015 05:54 PM

    CFS,
    Checkout the last post of Friday’s thread. It’s an ” eye opener “. Enjoy the second link! It’s a lot to grasp. It gives a big context of what the civil war was about. ( to say the least )

      CFS
      Jul 05, 2015 05:56 PM

      I have read the Federalist Papers, although not recently. And am well aware of the split over slavery, etc., which was a major problem at the Convention.
      I am prepared to accept the evolution of the Constitution over time, but not the out-of-thin-air changes created by the Supreme Court, that go against both the letter and the intent of the Constitution; the purpose of which was to limit the power of the Federal Government, not the states,nor the people.

      CFS
      Jul 05, 2015 05:01 PM

      That’s BS.
      the U.S. does not need a war, it needs responsible government, which is less controlling and a drag on the economy.

    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:14 PM

    OVERSEAS MARKETS STATUS – LATEST UPDATE FROM UK TELEGRAPH
    ALL TIMES ARE BST

    — By Mehreen Khan
    2:15AM BST 06 Jul 2015

    2015-07-06 02:17:27.0
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718775/Greek-referendum-day-results-live-no-vote-leads-by-60-per-cent.html?service=artBody
    This page will automatically update every 90 secondsOn Off • ‘No’ vote takes more than a 60pc share of the vote
    • Tsipras vows to continue talks but never cede to blackmail
    • EU leaders call emergency summit for Tuesday
    • AEP : defiant Greeks reject EU demands as Syriza readies IOU currency
    • Time to face reality: Greece needs mass debt relief now

    02.15 BST

    As expected, markets have opened down after news of the result in Greece.

    Australia’s ASX S&P 200 fell 1.4 per cent to 5,462.60 shortly after trading began early Monday, while New Zealand’s benchmark slipped 0.6 per cent to 5,808.75. Shares were expected to take a hit across the region and beyond.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index dropped 1.5 per cent shortly after the market opened Monday, but was trading down 1.4 per cent at 20,256.69 about a half-hour later. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.9 per cent to 2,085.67

    Jul 05, 2015 05:16 PM

    I noticed no one on this site wants to discuss Donald Trump, I wonder why although I like his credibility. Have we forgotten the world before political correctness became the order of the day, how about a little humor from Don Rickles.

      LFP
      Jul 05, 2015 05:31 PM

      DT:

      Rickles here.
      Before I supply the humor, let’s talk price…

      Go ahead, I’m listening 🙂

      Cheers
      LFP

      LFP
      Jul 05, 2015 05:40 PM

      DT:

      Rickles here again.

      Sudden bout of severe Laryngitis.
      So, no humor possible – forget about your price offer tender.

      BTW, the MSM’s got everybody in ga-ga mode re Trump, but nobody’s mentioned (in this blog, ‘though I may be mistaken) Bernie Sanders. Have you ..?..

      That’s scandalously incredible.

    Jul 05, 2015 05:34 PM

    Itis outrageous that after such a turmoil, gold is again pushed back the the same level. This is getting ridiculous. For people who don’t believe there is an intervention in PM market by governments, please think again. This cannot be real.

    Jul 05, 2015 05:35 PM

    The Trump is good for today’s politic. If all the others hate him and the media hates him? He must be good for America.
    It would be very easy for someone to go down in history as being the best president in the last 100 years. Because all of them have sucked. Besides JFK, and they whacked him for being a true statesman. ( not sure about Trump )

      LFP
      Jul 05, 2015 05:00 PM

      If he got rid of his hilariosly ridiculous toupe & got a good hair transplant, it would unarguably improve his ratings.
      Do you want a person with that kind of pathetically deficent choice-selecting capacity to determine national & foreign policy for the nest 4 years..?..!..

      On the other hand, if he does the transplant thingie, that mayboomerang on him, as he would then be perceived as just another ”professional politician” whose previously steadfast-and-sacrosanct principles can be compromised and totally forgotten for the sake of self-advancement.

      Come on, Chartster.
      He’s the classical embodiment of the so-called ”Hegelian ‘anti-thesis’ ”.
      That’s part of the formula that was used during Oabama’s 1st campaign that aided his clinching his 1st election .!.

        Jul 05, 2015 05:34 PM

        LFP,
        The fact of the matter is, no one worth a flip is running for president.

    Jul 05, 2015 05:40 PM

    After JFK got whacked, the rest of them got in line and played ca-bal.
    like good little corporate minions.

    LFP
    Jul 05, 2015 05:19 PM

    ANOTHER [ AGAIN .!. ? . « » YES – AGAIN ! ] GREEK UPDATE FROM UK TELEGRAPH

    4:00AM BST 06 Jul 2015
    2015-07-06 04:06:12.0
    ___________________
    04.05

    More international reaction, this time from China, via Reuters:

    China is confident that Greece’s economy will turn around with the hard work of all parties, a deputy foreign minister said on Monday. Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping said that he believed the Greek debt crisis would be “appropriately resolved”. “I believe that with the hard efforts of all sides, Greece’s economic situation will turn around. The economic crisis will be appropriately handled,” he told reporters, in China’s first official comment since the Greek vote. “Whether or not it can be appropriately handled will not only have an important impact on Greece and its people, but will have an important impact on … the world too.”

    ___________________
    03.35

    The leader of Argentina, which suffered a similar crisis more than a decade ago, has boldly welcomed the referendum result, Reuters reports.

    President Cristina Fernandez, known for combatively defending her unorthodox policies, tweeted that Greece’s vote marked “a resounding victory for democracy and dignity.”

    There are stark similarities between Argentina’s 2002 financial meltdown and the turmoil in Greece: rigid monetary regimes, creditors battling domestic politics to fix the problem and banking systems at breaking point.In Greece, 61 percent of voters rejected a deal that would have imposed more austerity on their already ravaged economy.

    “The Greek people have said ‘NO’ … to the impossible and humiliating conditions that would be imposed for the restructuring of their debt,” she tweeted. “We Argentines know what this is about. We hope that Europe and its leaders understand the message … that you can’t force anyone to sign their own death warrant.”

    ___________________
    03.05

    Paul Krugman argues in the New York Times that the most ardent supporters of European union should be breathing a sigh of relief.

    ___________________

      Jul 05, 2015 05:34 PM

      Many thanks for those comments!

    Jul 05, 2015 05:48 PM

    Futures are down on the Dow. Gold ( drumroll….) Unchanged!
    Not for long, cause the BBands on the daily and weekly are narrow…
    1224 coming soon.

    Jul 05, 2015 05:14 PM

    LFP, Watch this clip of Don Rickles and Frank Sinatra on The Tonight Show, it is only about ten minutes long and tell me whether it made you laugh:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QcvaVysYHs

      Jul 05, 2015 05:32 PM

      Absolutely the best!

    CFS
    Jul 06, 2015 06:03 AM

    Well at least the U.S. has a convincing World Cup win. Congratulations.

      Jul 06, 2015 06:44 AM

      After the game: Quite the logjam of cars going back through the Peace Arch to the USA. 90 minute wait times with 10 lanes open.

    Jul 06, 2015 06:24 AM

    Women should rule the world CFS – I loved how England bore no malice to the poor lass who scored an own goal, and then went on to beat Germany. there was something profound in their winning a bronze.

    Jul 06, 2015 06:41 AM

    Look at that ! 300+ comments with the utmost civility. It is possible.

      Jul 06, 2015 06:31 AM

      🙂

    Jul 06, 2015 06:16 AM

    The real reason The Greeks voted “NO” on Sunday’s referendum is that they wanted more money and they didn’t want to pay the debt back, and The Germans wanted to dominate Europe, people and states are so selfish.

      Jul 06, 2015 06:28 AM

      Germany wants to lead Europe to get out of US control and return European glory again. Nothing wrong with that. When all fail as it looks, desperate Germany will align itself with East, French will follow and opportunist British will defect depend on the balance of power. When this happen, war is the only choice unless US wants to step down as the leader of world.

        Jul 06, 2015 06:36 AM

        Long gold and silver, we will be rewarded. Soon we will find out that emprors wear no cloths.

    Jul 06, 2015 06:45 AM

    GOOD ONE AT ZERHEDGE…………..
    ..Germany has NEVER PAID IT’S DEBT, has no right to lecture Greeks.

      Jul 06, 2015 06:47 AM

      that should be zerohedge……….zerhedge in german… 🙂