Gary says don’t be a contrarian too early in these markets
Gary joins us with his comments on a day when the vast majority of the markets are negative by at least a full percent. He says stay in cash and wait for your buying opportunities which he thinks will come earliest in the conventional markets.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
There’s no crash here so it does not end any debate. Gold has often risen on days just like today.
Those were the good old days when the USD was going down. That not be the case now, Mr Obvious.
Chinese buying PMs on margin, Shanghai getting creamed equals margin calls. Now it is just feeding on its sell as the weak hands are folding now the stronger hands are feeling the heat.
Chinese buy physical. The price is driven down by paper. It is different. Physical in the other half of the world does not have this fast effect. It is night in China. There is 12 hours time difference.
Very different. Thanks Lawrence.
Crash?
Thanks for the comment heathen. I agree that when the stock market crash that a lot of people are calling for comes, gold will get hit as well. With all the weakness out there people will flood into the USD as well.
That said when the bottom is found the precious metals will come back strong.
Matt+1
Triple bottom is coming
Well, there will always be believers no matter the evidence, foer example, how often do triple bottoms/tops hold?
Dent could still be proven correct, when gold spiked in 1980? to $800, it took 20 years? for another spike. Who is to say it wont take 20 years for the next one?
There is still MORE supply than demand, no matter how much Asian,Indian and Russian buying is promoted.
We don’t know how many tons of temple gold is going on the market, it was accumulated for centuries so there is probably more than a couple kilos, just my guess of course.
BenB, the opinion of anyone who takes Dent seriously should be ignored.
And the opinion(s) of anyone who takes him(her)self seriously might also be ignored as well, IMHO 🙂
Best to all,
LPG
That’s not logical in my view but still very appealing on an emotional level. 😉
Dent is really really very emotional and always on the wrong side. Remember he wrote book called Dow 36000.
Exactly right Lawrence.
I have to kind of agree with you, LPG
So much for Marty Armstrong then… lol
Mathew, should the opinion of people that ignore other opinions be relied upon?
Dent is a shill with a terrible record.
MA is a certain shill.
I am not saying Dent is right, I have no idea. I am merely saying he could be.
Gold/silver bugs “to the moon” crowd could also be proven correct of course.
My point is that Dent should be ignored because of his record, not because of his targets.
How the heck is Dent any worse than so many others?
So far he has been correct with gold down down down.
And I am certain the day will come when the “to the moon” crowd will be equally correct.
You obviously haven’t followed Dent for long.
If anyone is bad, it must be Harry Dent. The statistic says he has the worst record among analysts. It is hard to get all wrong and he did it. I don’t think he even does any investment. He just wants to sell books so his predictions are all over the place. He has turned bearish at exactly March 2009 and stayed bearish ever since.
All I can say is that we have to do what is right for each of us.
I don’t follow Dent, only heard his gold $400 I actually don’t follow anyone.
Only read articles, follow events.
But to be honust, tho many have claimed various things for gold, they all seem to have been wrong. Most are partially correct, or “catch a bounce” etc but that’s it.
Sinclair,Bo,Morgan,Keiser on and on, nobody has got it right, but, someone will be eventually you would think.
Hope everyone is well.
This Indian temples’ gold thingy got me thinking for a while a while back.
If anything, to me, the gold within the temples is bullish for India over the long run – but not necessarily bearish for gold itself.
Let me elaborate:
if I was the Indian gvt, why would I let the opportunity to put my hands on “free gold” if I decide the gold within the temples can be seized and therefore act as an anchor of stability for my currency ?
Granted, some of the gold might be sold internationally to provide foreign currency reserves.. but I would be inclined to think that India would keep a good chunk for itself.
Beside, that gold could be used in lieu of payment for “big” purchases.
My 2cts.
Good luck to all investing/trading.
LPG
Interesting thoughts on the Indian gold “thingy” LPG.
Cheers!
Good thoughts LPG. You would think for sure that they would keep at least some of that gold. No clue how much though.
I would think that a gov’t that seized gold from the temples might not be the gov’t for long. But I know very little about India or Indians.
LPG, you do realize that the gold in question is already owned by someone. The way you are talking suggests that the gold is just there for the taking and use by the powers that be as is it has no existing owner. This is not just some general gold lying around in the dust heaps of history we are talking about that can be used willy-nilly by any government that comes to power to patch holes in its budget or balance of payments. I hope you appreciate that the reason the government is offering bank interest (a profit and revenue stream) on contributed metals is because they are trying to draw it into the more mainstream financial sector without disturbing the rights of current ownership nor creating alarm within the community of those who have pledged gold for religious purposes at an earlier time. So in other words, your theorizing makes no sense to me.
Interest point, Heathen.
Excellent comments Heathen. You wondered out loud how often triple tops or bottoms hold and I just happen to think that is the best question of the day. Naturally we all know very well what a technical double bottom means for prices. (Price will rebound and often rise abruptly). But when a double bottom does not result in a price rebound then what we are actually seeing is a market that testing the lower boundary for weakness and then the odds will statistically favour a breakdown, not a breakout. Buyers of precious metals should be aware that when a triple bottom is in sight the odds are in favour of the house, not the casual investor and that it is likelier a penetration to new lows is coming than a moon shot to new highs. In general, I see triple bottoms as a bad omen with an impending negative outcome for the long side so stay on your toes and don’t fall for the hype that tries to spin triples as a good entry point. Extreme caution should be exercised in my opinion.
Those are good thoughts on the odds of a bounce after a double bottom, and the odds for further downside if a triple bottom pattern plays out.
Yes they are. Thank you very much.
LPG, I think your right, they would definatly have options.
Couple things about it.
It wasnt “seized”, it was negotiated between the government and the temples to release it. Supposedly for the good of the people, once the temples accepted it was “the people” that put it there to begin with, they agreed.
Second, we don’t know how much.
If it was discovered they had 2000 tons to sell, or more, why would they tell anyone, that would drive the price down.
I think the fact they don’t tell us how much they have means they have a lot.
There have been rumours for some time of massive hoards around.
LPG,
Great discussion. There are hoards of gold around in various countries. If India offers the people an interest payment to store the gold? And it remains in possession of the people? Think about it. The people make money on the asset and India can underpin the currency with more assets. More assets = better value. And gold is money based on the asset ( gold ) being pegged with all currencies as of recent times.
And the excerpt from the article.
Furthermore, while we await the OCC to respond to our inquiry (we aren’t holding our breath), nobody has disputed our claim (because it is purely factual) that as of Q1 the OCC decided to exclude Gold as a separate commodity category (see call reports above) and lump it in with Foreign Exchange for some still unexplained reason. It would appear that gold is money after all…
Heathen,
2000MT = c$70bn worth at current mket prices.
Not a huge “deal” in the grand scheme of things.
I am confident a few central banks would love to put their hands on this gold – incl. the India’s Central Bank 🙂 Not sure much of it would flood in the retail market and smash the price of gold, IMHO.
Beside, I’m not sure of the rationale of “if they say they have 2000MT, this would drive the price down”.
1) to start with, I would assume that many people understand there is a lot of gold in the temples. A lot. So it’s not exactly a “secret” IMHO.
But more importantly…
2) Think about it this way: it tomorrow there’s a 1bn oil barrel discovery somewhere, is it gonna drive the price of oil down ?
My 2cts.
Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Typo in my post at 9:42 am.
Meant to write: “IF tomorrow there’s a 1bn oil barrel discovery”.
Apologies.
LPG
I agree LPG that the central banks would try to get their hands on the Indian temple gold, and that not much of it would hit the retail markets. Very good point on it not really being a big pressure to the PMs. The paper markets are setting the prices right now anyway. At one point the physical and paper markets will be reconciled, but until then, there is the technical trend.
Best to you sir.
You right LPG, yet we don’t know how much there is, I only said 2000 tons for arguments sake.
There could be much more, large rooms (plural) have been described, filled to the brim.
How much do China?Russia buy each month? 2-300 tons?
3000 tons could keep the lid on prices for a year.
All 3 are BRICS as well.
My only point being, we just don’t know how much there is.
As if figuring the amount of supply was easy before w heard about “Temple gold”.
We have had only the demand side of the equation, and that ebbs and flows as it is.
All demand has been met, no getting around that, then add an amount we don’t know from the Temples.
Dent could end up correct, not that it matters.
A better question might be, could gold save a crumbling financial system, or, would the “rulers” want gold to save it?
I like your last question a lot, Heathen. I am thinking if the same “rulers” maintain power, they will not want gold (unless they are stock-piling it themseleves). However, I think what is the other possibility is that China and Russia show that they have tons and tons of gold and that the US NY banking system emperor has no clothes. Then China will call the shots for the next hundred years in the world banking system, and we will ask ourselves why we never bought Yuan back when it was pegged to the dollar.
I just listened to the “inception radio network” with Jim Marrs as guest.
I guess JFK had printed $4 billion in treasury notes bypassing the federal reserve, just before they killed him.
After 50 years those involved have pretty much been identified.
Wal Street, Military industrial complex, Cia, FBI presidential family names we know and love among others.
These “rulers” will get what they want, including Yuan as reserve and gold to whatever price they decide.
The question with China calling the shots, we don’t know if its the same bank, their “leaders” could be owned just as ours are.
I like to think that gold would play a part tho, it makes sense, a lot of people would accept/like a gold backed currency.
Nothing says that the U.S. has no gold, jpm sure came up with tons of silver pretty quick.
Its all better than a reality show, lol
Interesting thoughts Wiseguy. I’ve often wondered if that wasn’t the longer-term gameplan for China & Russia.
You are right LPG, it’s not a huge amount in the whole scheme of things.
My disney and dr. pepper snaple are both doing much better than the rest of the market . some of my preferreds are holding up but others are falling with the rest of the market. I still have lots of margin to use and will after this summer sellloff is over. Best of health and wealth to you all S
Keep drinking in those good results R Scott. I’m a pepper, you’re a pepper, wouldn’t you like to be a pepper too? 🙂
I bought more SPM into the low today and it’s already looking good.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p33295723159
I ended up selling my remaining position in (Americas Silver Mining – still showing as Scorpio on stock charts) on 06/26/15, and have been waiting to get back in. I am still to concerned that silver may drop a little further to take a position out yet.
I wish you all the best Matthew, as you have nerves of steel (or silver). : – )
Hey Matthew, what are some of the factors you like on Scorpio? I do not follow that stock but would be interested to if you like it.
Cory, I’ve been trading Scorpio (now Americas Silver Mining) since 2010 and I think they are very good at mining the Silver veins in Mexico, have an experienced team, a good deal of base metal credits in Lead and Zinc, and just acquired US Silver and Gold (good acquisition). They need a little higher Silver prices around $18-$19 to really break out, but they should have a nice multiplier to the Silver price when it recovers. I made a nice profit on the positions I acquired in 2013/2014 this year in May, and sold the remaining position last month (expecting a pullback in the metals).
Here is a blurb from their website:
________________________________________________________________
Americas Silver Corporation (formerly Scorpio Mining Corporation) is a silver mining company with operations in the United States and Mexico. The Company has two primary operating assets in the Americas: the Cosalá Operations in Sinaloa, Mexico and the Galena Complex in Idaho, USA. Scorpio also has significant production expansion opportunities at current and higher silver prices.
In 2014, Americas Silver produced 2.8 million silver ounces and 4.37 million silver equivalent ounces. The Company anticipates production of 2.6 – 3.0 million silver ounces and 4.6 – 5.2 million silver equivalent ounces for 2015. With the completion of the merger of Scorpio Mining and U.S. Silver & Gold at the end of 2014, higher silver equivalent production in 2015 will be driven by increased silver-lead ore tonnage from the Galena Complex.
I went to post this asset reserves link and forgot to mention they also have copper credits as well.
Thanks Shad, I will take a look at the company this week.
It’s worth checking out. I’ve been a fan for a while, and I know Dan Calgary, Brian, Glenfidish, and Matthew are interested in the company as well. They really need the higher silver prices to break out, but if you want to cherry pick some good miners that will have a great deal of upside when things improve, then I recommend Americas Silver Mining, Alexco, and Avino Silver and Gold. Mag Silver and Sierra Metals have been on a tear as well. Of course, good ole Santa Cruz will have some nice upside as well once prices get going again.
Here’s a nice chart of some smaller producers and explorers in the Silver space. Mag Silver has moved into the #1 position out of this group this week, with Sierra Metals in #2, and Trevali Resources just moved into 3rd place.
Featuring composite chart on the last 200 days with : Mag Silver, Alexco, Silvercorp, Trevali Resources, Impact Silver, Santacruz Silver, Sierra Metals, Avino Silver & Gold, Great Panther Silver, and Americans Silver Mining (still displays as Scorpio).
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?MVG,AXU,SVM,TV.TO,IPT.V,SCZ.V,SMT.TO,ASM,GPL,SMNPF#
SPM has been able to reduce AISC considerably over the last year and is now nearly perfectly positioned to benefit from modestly higher silver. The shares could appreciate dramatically if silver goes up 20% since their respectable production and impressive reserves/resources would enjoy a great re-rating as not much of either is economic at the current silver price.
Of course, if you don’t think silver is going to go up any time soon, then there’s no reason to own it.
76.7 to 1………silver gold ratio……………
widening the gap….
Yep
What do you think of Rick Ackerman’s call for $11 Silver on the other editorial today?
I fully expected and forecast a low $14’s Silver price for July, but an $11 call from Rick today was startling.
did not listen to Rick……BUT, I think he is to low……..and if it does hit $11 I am a buyer.
Seems low to me, but Rick is usually pretty accurate.
“usually”………key word………..
us u all…y me
I’ve considered buying some Silver Canadian Maple Leafs at sub $14 if we get there. Agreed FFM – If Silver hit $11, I’d be a big buyer of physical at that level.
ANYTHING SILVER AT $11………I like maples , but , do not like the extra charge.
What do you buy for silver coins then OOTB….BOOT?
Shad , if you are just talking coins……I like Morgans …….and it does not have to be MS63plus…. but, I buy according to the value presented, I do not care if it is silver bbs.
The main thing , find out who is going to be the buyer, if you need to sell.. MORGANS…offer two ways to sell……coin collectors and silver junkies……jmho
Plus you might luck out and find an $11,000 dollar coin for $15……..
Good thoughts FFM. Yes, it was selling my Morgans in 2008 that got me hooked on Precious metals in the first place. I had major buyers remorse after I went home and studied the silver market, and it wasn’t long before I was placing more first order for a few hundred silver coins right after in the $10 range. I sold them all in 2011 around $39 to start trading the miners instead.
Now, for the first time in years, I’m considering physical metals again. That’s a good point on the morgans, as you may find a rare or valuable numismatic score.
Cheers!
that should have said major “sellers” remorse in 2008…..you get the idea though…
I have been collecting morgans since 1959….
I started in 1976, but liquidated in 2011. I’ll be starting from scratch as they say….
Actually I still have a few morgans, a few mercury dimes, and some “junk silver”, but nothing of any significance.
Great time in 76….I started my currency collection in 76…with some $2 bills….
I still have a proof set of 1976 because I liked the bicentennial coins.
Shad…I think it could happen…see below…a PPT for silver.
When silver runs, (& it will) everybody best have their running shoes on to keep up with it …JMHO.
I absolutely agree Irish.
Personally, I’d be surprised to see Silver get back to $11 (and was just referencing Rick A’s call today), but nothing is shocking anymore in these markets. I’ve been holding out for sub $14 to get some more physical, so I’m curious to see how it goes over the next few weeks, but yes, even in the $14-$15 range Silver is still a great value (below the cost of production for many miners).
Silver will hit 8’ish
Jerry…It did go over 77 at one point….Feck that gave me the hebby jebbys..haha
For what its worth i think something big is going to happen with silver in the near future.
I now belive “THEY” have a PPT, just for silver.
hello IRISH……..hebby jebbys was owl’s best dance……………… 🙂
funny.
SLW took a contrarian focused blow today.
Dennis – It is probably because their tax filings are under scrutiny.
Check out this article:
Silver Wheaton Remains Confident in Business Structure Following Receipt of CRA Proposal Letter
Yah I know. I was on the conference call this morning.
Neat – I saw it happening but was busy with work. I just didn’t know if you’d see the news when you mentioned the contrarian focused blow.
Cheers mate!
Shad…Why wait till $11….Silver was a bargain at $20..(for the long haul ) $14+ today is a fire sale…or so i think.
I absolutely agree Irish.
Personally, I’d be surprised to see Silver get back to $11 (and was just referencing Rick A’s call today), but nothing is shocking anymore in these markets. I’ve been holding out for sub $14 to get some more physical, so I’m curious to see how it goes over the next few weeks, but yes, even in the $14-$15 range Silver is still a great value (below the cost of production for many miners).
Dennis….nice to see you back….Tony
funny you guys showed up the same day…….must be a sign……….. 🙂
We’re putting the band back together…..
don’t forget the sunglasses……….
I love the Blues Brothers. Classic.
ditto on the blues brothers……
Despite the ground fire damage from NUGT my JDST jet was able to reach cruising altitude for me to take profits. 16% today on JDST! Woohoo! Went from 1% to 16% in 90 minutes! I love leverage!
Well played Jason. Just don’t get caught on the wrong side of those leveraged plays.
Hey Core, you mean like over at UWTI where I am the biggest BAG HOLDER? I’m averaged in at 3.66 and she dropped below 2 today!!! OUCH! It’s all good ’cause blaming Gary makes me feel better. 🙂
RIO and FCX are buys at these levels. Huge players, less downside risk. Buy these guys.
you think the Indians will allow the temple gold to be stolen..
its their religion
Agatha…I dont think so..But only if their temple elders are honest.
Backhanders can move mountains.
So gold gets sold off when the market does, probably for liquidity.
Same thing happened in the last “crash”.
At least this should end the debate as to what happens to gold when a “crash” happens.