We chat with Doc and Chris
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So, will the Greek Crisis be solved this Sunday. Will Ms Merkel’s apparent “revised stance” rule the day? Listen to what Doc and Chris have to say.
The audio is now fixed and normalized.
The audio should be better now.
” Rally or be executed”
Good One. Pretty much sums it up.
Tragic comedy for sure. China has the ability to balance out their markets to some degree due to the power of their national government over business and in setting up new mandates. That comment Chris mentioned from Art C. did make me chuckle.
Doc – I’d like to get your thoughts on (SWC) Stillwater Mining. Their chart is ugly, but I’m a mid to long-term fan of the company. They’ve had a union strike with their 900 wokers that has many investors freaked out and selling, on top Palladium just getting creamed. When I look at their chart, I can’t remember it being so oversold.
What are your thoughts or anyone else that wants to weigh in on Stillwater Mining?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SWC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34018308618
I was considering taking out a small position in it today around this $10.48 level.
Hmm (as I just typed that it jumped to $10.56). Could this be a turn?
Shad:
Other than a stock that has been in a nasty downfall what would be your reasoning for buying? What would be your expectations and what would be your timeframe ?
My thoughts are that the RSI got down to 16 today in oversold territory, it is on the bottom of the lower bollinger band, the slow stochastics are down around 5 (way oversold), and it has fallen over 25% in the last month and is way below the 50 day MA and 200 day MA and I wouldn’t rule out a snap back upwards.
Fundamentally Palladium has been getting really hammered lately, and I think it may have a short term pop next week. As mentioned above, the terms of the labor agreement for their 900 workers didn’t have agreement from both sides in mid June, but an announcement that things have been worked out could cause a multiplier on any short-term rally.
I’m glad you asked about a time frame – 1-2 weeks. I still think it could go down lower in July and August but thought it was due for pop that could be swing traded. I would want to get about a 10-12% pop, but don’t want to get stuck catching a falling knife either.
Shad :
I think your spot on but I have to go with Doc.
A labor agreement would make for a nice pop,but the question is how much due to the weakness of palladium.
Once the stock finds a bottom and builds a base I would take another look.
Good Luck.
good thoughts. That seems to be the consensus on the board today, and of course, it is much safer to wait for the resource sector to bottom, along with Palladium, and this particular stock, and that will still be a little while. Yes, the labor dispute is an unknown and could go either way really.
Thanks for the feedback. I still may enter a small swing position next week depending on how things set up in the pre-markets on Monday. Have a great weekend!
Shad, I’ve owned SWC in the past and not currently—sold it awhile back. I wouldn’t own it now for a number of reasons both fundamentally and technically. I would probably wait until the carnage in the PM and resource sector is over. Also, technically and on the monthly chart it’s right at the lower bollinger and may bouce but I have a feeling it has further to fall. Also, the metal price of palladium is in the process of falling further and has at least another $100+ to go.
I’ve owned SWC in the past and lost money. There are much better managements out here so why fool with SWC? Doc, let me know when you decide to buy 10 year Greek bonds.
Thanks for the feedback Bonzo Barzini. Personally, I am most interested in their asset in a recovering Palladium market which I could see later this year. I may go bottom fishing later this late summer (Aug) and see where this is for longer term hold, but as mentioned to John K and Doc, I just meant on a short term basis both technically and if the fundamental news supports.
Cheers!
BB; do you have a symbol for 10 year greek bonds. I’m watching the Greek stock market closely and may take a position soon —-Grek. Not investment advice.
Thanks Doc, yes I should have specified that I was just looking to swing trade this over the next week or two on a short-term rally (especially if they announce they’ve reached a labor agreement with the unions). I’m in agreement that it could still fall further in later July early August (as low as $8 in my opinion), but I just meant over the next week or two.
Thanks!
Shad, you probably could make some bucks on a swing trade. I should probably get into that based on my technicals but I’m probably too lazy to become a day trader. I’ll often wait for a stock to complete bottom and then buy for the long term.
Thanks Doc. Yes, I just go for base hits (10-15%) or in penny stocks (20-30%) in a week or so. I don’t ever have an exact timeframe in mind, more of a price target. For example, on SWC I’d want to get in around these levels and sell around 11.50-11.80 zone. This one’s quite a bit riskier though due to all the weakness in Palladium as of late and their situation with the labor unions is a big unknown. If they fail in their talks, then nobody is working, but if they find a solution (more likely) then there would be a nice relief rally, and I’d sell into that strength.
Just an idea but it could easily backfire and just tumble down further, so I’d use a stop loss around $10.38
I don’t know, maybe it’s a bad idea, but I struggle believing it will stay this oversold for the next 3-5 weeks without at least a small counter-trend rally.
Doc, I do not know the symbol for Greek bonds or for Mexican bonds either. We’d probably be better off waiting for the HUI to drop to 50 and then buy for the ride to 2000 which Gary Savage expects.
In rereading this, I see why it was confusing, as my ADD had struck again……
I started with the overall outlook (mid to long term) for Stillwater, but then posted a second time (on a completely different mental track) about the swing trade I was considering. Sorry about that confusion, but once again appreciate everyone’s thoughts. This is a good place to bounce these kinds of ideas around. Have a great weekend!
Chris’ comments re nasdaq & russell…the most interesting by far… Doc on greece – probably all planned to foment great societal breakdown before dictatorship..
DO MORE WEBINARS!!!
Jason, we are planning on it.
Drink more Ovaltine!
We will Jason! Thanks for your support
Shad. We used those (shad fish) for turtle bait in Tennessee. 🙂
Trust me…..I hear it all the time Jason. “Man, you’re fishin’ bait around here….” 🙂
COMEX:
Well tell me what you think … 🙂
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6nzzqvzj3y6ilei/COMEX.jpg?dl=0
COT report shows improvement for the PMs in the commercial sector. Silver improves by about a net long 4000 contracts and gold by a net long 12000 contracts.
I hope that Mr. T still has his bling. I can’t hear his gold chains clanking.
Mr T is awesome.
Al…please turn up your mic…you are barely audible.