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The COT reports are pointing bullish for gold

July 13, 2015

Gary kicks off this week with us chatting about the overall trends int he markets. While Cory thinks that the US dollar is looking strong Gary thinks that the precious metals are setting up for a short term bounce.

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Discussion
26 Comments
    Jul 13, 2015 13:45 AM

    Gary is correct. He is not good when it comes to bonds. He stated about 6 years ago that the U.S. bond bull market was over.

    Tom
    Jul 13, 2015 13:35 AM

    Gary said miners bottomed in March

      Jul 13, 2015 13:34 PM

      Tom,
      Nope. But you can keep trying.

    Jul 13, 2015 13:16 PM

    Juniors are shaky. But I am not going to cash in on any more of their pain until JDST corrects back down to under $9.

    Jul 13, 2015 13:51 PM

    Good discussion on the editorial today guys. That was an interesting potential scenario that Gary threw out about the dollar rising, and gold putting in it’s intermediate low, but that does move the major bottom in PMs back to year end, or as Doc has forecast the beginning of 2016.

    Personally, as much as I’d like to see this bear market come to a close in PMs, and earlier in the year I was pretty sure we’d see it this summer June-Aug, I’m not sure we’re going to see the see “The Bottom” in the next month or so. As Gary and Doc mentioned, we may just get an intermediate bottom, and then a 5-6 week bounce. I’ll be watching for this intermediate low in August to pick up some mining shares and make a little cake on the counter-trend rally, and then get cautious again in the winter.

      Jul 13, 2015 13:58 PM

      Having said that….. If for some reason PMs do get a major breakdown in the next month or so through the Nov low support of 1131, and it gives way to $1000-$1050 range, then that would be the Major bottom. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that there is enough downside pressure to get that bottoming out of the way in the next 4-5 weeks, so we may just get this intermediate low, then a Fall bounce, and maybe a winter drop or a first quarter 2016 drop into the grand finale. Bummer.

        Jul 13, 2015 13:02 PM

        That scenario does lend credence to the “Falling Wedge” pattern playing out closer and closer to the apex in 2016 as Doc has pointed out, but this range bound market is maddening, and will not generate the kind of excitement to get institutional and retail investors back into this space.

          Jul 13, 2015 13:01 PM

          Zzzzzzz…..

            Jul 13, 2015 13:20 PM

            thanks for the feedback bird.

            Jul 14, 2015 14:36 AM

            Who is Bird?

            Jul 14, 2015 14:32 AM

            Yeah yeah yeah……we’ve already been through this a few days ago Birdman. Say something nice or just move on dude.
            _______________________________
            On July 9, 2015 at 10:33 pm,
            Shad says:

            Seems reasonable to me bird.

            On July 9, 2015 at 10:35 pm,
            A Listener says:

            If I am not mistaken, Bird no longer posts here.

            On July 9, 2015 at 10:38 pm,
            Shad says:

            based on your discussions, the time you post, and your accurate calls on the Canadian dollar I figured you were one in the same.
            Cheers.

            On July 9, 2015 at 11:15 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It’s Bird, Shad.

            On July 10, 2015 at 3:48 am,
            Frank from moscow says:

            A LISTENER EQUAL BIRD??????????????

            On July 10, 2015 at 4:27 am,
            Frank from moscow says:

            is bb the heathen???????????

            On July 10, 2015 at 6:15 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yes & yes.

            On July 10, 2015 at 6:17 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            I wondered where bb was, the tag team duo are joined at the hip.

            On July 10, 2015 at 8:11 am,
            Frank from moscow says:

            thanks Matthew………… too funny…………

            On July 10, 2015 at 8:12 am,
            Frank from moscow says:

            What a hoot…………. bb the heathen…………..lol

            On July 10, 2015 at 1:06 pm,
            heathen says:

            Yup, frank, bb is now heathen, had to start calling myself heathen after HH did.

            On July 10, 2015 at 1:35 pm,
            Shad says:

            I wondered where that name came from bb, but forgot about that. funny.

            On July 10, 2015 at 2:29 pm,
            A Listener says:

            But the Listener is not Birdman. We are not the same person. Thank you anyway for the kind compliment.

            On July 10, 2015 at 4:10 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Nice try.

            On July 10, 2015 at 4:39 pm,
            Shad says:

            funny.

            Jul 14, 2015 14:34 AM

            Interesting. But sorry, I did not insult anyone in the above posts. All the comments came from you and others. I merely asserted that the Listener is not Bird. Pure coincidence if we seem alike. Make a friendly attempt to accept that and try not to make anymore assumptions.

            Thanks for your cooperation.

            Jul 14, 2015 14:42 AM

            Zzzzzz……

            Jul 14, 2015 14:32 AM

            I typed more Zzzzzzz’s than you. So I win. Count them if you doubt me.

            Jul 14, 2015 14:29 PM

            OK that made me laugh out loud. I really wish you could be less snarky / combative and more funny like this and we’d get along just fine.

            I really have always thought you were a smart guy Birdman, but the personal swipes and insults just get old. Best to you – and I do mean that!

      Jul 13, 2015 13:36 PM

      If you are going to see bottoms, it is the summertime 😉

        Jul 14, 2015 14:34 AM

        Let’s hope so. Seasonally yes.

      Jul 13, 2015 13:42 PM

      Very good charts Gary.

      The only chart I didn’t follow was the CRB index. It seems like we are about 6 1/2 years into a this cycle (where base metals like copper are putting in new 6+ year lows).

      As mentioned above, we may see at least a temporary intermediate bottoming in the commodity sector in August. Doc has mentioned it may take until 2016 for metals to finally bottom. Who knows? We are getting very close to the 7 year mark in the CRB commodity index, so we are finally in the window of time where we’d expect a bottom to form in the next 6 months.

      Here’s a chart showing where the CRB is at currently and the 2002 and 2009 lows:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&st=2001-01-01&en=(today)&id=p31311586902

        Jul 13, 2015 13:45 PM

        If that chart doesn’t look right when you open it, just hit “Update” and it should go back to the 2001 timeframe.

          Jul 13, 2015 13:50 PM

          **There was a little 3 year cycle from 1999 – 2002, but prior to that was the low zone from 1992-93 to early 1999 which was also a 7 year cycle, and prior to that a low in 1986 to that late 1992-early 1993 which was also a 7 year cycle.

          Here’s a good CRB chart from the great website – Short Side of Long showing how 3 of the last 4 cycles were around 7 years.

          http://i2.wp.com/shortsideoflong.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/CRB-Index-Performance.png

    Jul 13, 2015 13:25 PM

    Al is completely abusing the phrase for lack of better terms hahahaha jk

      Jul 13, 2015 13:40 PM

      Sheesh. What does a guy have to do to be a contrarian around here, anyway !

      I was feeling pretty good about accumulating JNUG @ sub-$15 (because no one else was), then Gary has to ruin the whole thing by predicting a multi-week rise in PMs.

      Oh no. Do we need a new term: Contra-contrarian? Hard to say after the third beer.

      Jul 14, 2015 14:05 AM

      funny stewie 🙂

    Jul 14, 2015 14:33 AM

    +1 – “contra-contrarian”. I love it Brian.