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Monday Morning with Rick Ackerman

Big Al
July 13, 2015

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We guess that it is all about trading with little fundamental rationale.

Discussion
22 Comments
    Jul 13, 2015 13:25 AM

    The commodity supercycle Has been coming to an end for a couple of years, while the stock market has been pumped up with money printing. The crash in commodities will get worse soon. oil at $20, copper at $1.50, Gold $700, silver under $10. Speaking of China, the growth in that country, which started to ramp in 2000 has coincidentally been unwinding the same time that commodities have been slipping. What was pushing commodity prices up, is now pulling them back down as China’s growth slows and so does its desire for commodities.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

    Countries have failed to put their fiscal houses in order. A global deflationary bust is in the cards now.

    Past warning signs… http://www.cnbc.com/id/100641156

    Jul 13, 2015 13:28 AM

    SMASH UP……….per Kathleen Austin Fitts said months ago……..The fed is still in control…………
    The debt for the US CITIZEN. …IS $1.4 MILLION………

      GH
      Jul 13, 2015 13:36 PM

      Really? I had it figured at $200K-$700K for every man, woman, and child in the country, depending on which numbers one believes…Kotlikoff’s being at the high end, at debt and unfunded obligations of about $220 trillion…I thought that was bad enough!!

        Jul 13, 2015 13:42 PM

        I just read it last week somewhere……I think zerohedge…….$1.4 million

          Jul 13, 2015 13:44 PM

          It was $60k, before UNCLE BEN took over…….

    Jul 13, 2015 13:32 AM

    China stock market is now controlled by the govt…………THE .problem NOW , will be getting in the SDR BASKET, as a result of the govt., action. They will have to wait 5 yrs., if , they are not allowed in this year……(posted this last week)

    Jul 13, 2015 13:33 PM

    Sinopec (SHI) up $12 in the past week. Just saying. 🙂

    Jul 13, 2015 13:19 PM

    Added to CAT, DE, LMT and GPC on the open. Will sit back and collect my QDIs.

    Jul 13, 2015 13:20 PM

    Every hear about the wall of worry? Oh gawd the market topping process spill again, 5 years and counting……

    Jul 13, 2015 13:23 PM

    Airlines have topped? WTF you smoking?

      Jul 13, 2015 13:27 PM

      Every airline I own is up over 2% today and their charts are breaking out.

      Just look at the XAL (airline index), that chart is a thing of beauty. The individual names look even better.

        Jul 13, 2015 13:42 PM

        merger time………….

        Jul 13, 2015 13:37 PM

        Tyler – what are your thoughts on the new Airlines ETF (JETS) that Frank Holmes team launched this year? How do you think it stacks up to (XAL)?

          Jul 13, 2015 13:01 PM

          can I add a note here…………..If Holmes is running around with BILL CLINTON, YOU are going to get JETTED OUT of your position……..if, CLINTON is involved……..jmho.

            Jul 13, 2015 13:33 PM

            funny FFM. Smoking stogies on their jets……rarified hot air.

            Jul 13, 2015 13:39 PM

            Just do not stay around for the BLOW BACK…………

          Jul 13, 2015 13:49 PM

          For JETS I bring up JET Airways (India) Limited. I don’t like to invest in ETFs (1) You can not control the stocks it owns and (2) You can not control your dividend.

          I do look at ETFs and see what they are holding and then I slice and dice the best of the holdings and buy the individual names.

          I only used XAL above as an example to see what they entire airline sector stocks look like now.

          You want to build position that get a majority of their earnings from overseas as a hedge against the USD. Look at: K, HSY, YUM, SBUX, MCD, BUD, UL, MDLZ, AAPL, MSFT, PEP, KO, etc, etc. Only PMs is not tax favorable and it will not keep up with inflation.

            Jul 13, 2015 13:04 PM

            US Global Jets ETF (JETS) -NYSEArca
            23.39 Up 0.29(1.26%) 4:00PM EDT

            The index is composed of the common stock of U.S. and international passenger airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airports, and terminal services companies listed on well-developed securities exchanges across the globe. The fund is non-diversified.

            ———————————

            Very good thoughts Tyler. That can be a double-edged sword on diversifying into a few solid companies in your overall portfolio that produce the majority of the earnings from overseas to hedge against the USD. Yes it is a hedge, but some of the multi-nationals have been creamed lately due to these currency fluctuations. I do think you bring up a great point though, about having some of one’s portfolio counter-balanced.

            As for ETFS, I often do the exact same thing you mentioned — “…see what they are holding and then I slice and dice the best of the holdings and buy the individual names.”

            Good stuff man.

    Jul 13, 2015 13:55 PM

    Rick said that he is not so sure if a correction in the conventional markets will wait until Sept/Oct. I also am very sceptical about the current markets. Why are the powers that be almost panicking if they see the S&P/DOW/Nasdaq just fall a few percentage points and break that 200 DMA? Why did the NYSE close for 4 hours during a most likely severe down day, with the lousy excuse of a software update glitch? Nobody in his right mind updates software during production time. You ALWAYS do that during week-ends. Chinese hackers? Come-on; Tonnes of sell orders without any buyers – perhaps a much better explanation? If that’s the case, just renewed selling in China could topple the conventionals into a tailspin. The question is: where would the fall stop – after 10,20,30% ? From a contrarian perspective, I would not be surprised to see an ‘Event’ happen in the next few weeks. Sept/Oct is much too predictable. Your opinion?

      Jul 13, 2015 13:51 PM

      Foreigners are plowing into our markets (1) To get out of their crappy currencies (2) To own assets (stocks, real estate, bonds) that are valued in an appreciating currency. Ride the gravy train.

        Jul 13, 2015 13:08 PM

        Yes, there is definitely of foreign investors flocking to US markets as a way to get out of their declining currencies and to “Ride the Gravy Train”.

        What happens though when the train runs out of Gravy?

        Won’t that accelerate the decline if a meaningful correction occurs this fall, as those same investors will cash out and move to a different asset class?

    Jul 14, 2015 14:12 AM

    Loving this major topping action. Got some good fills this am on UL, KO and HAS.