Numerous topics need to be considered today when assessing the financial markets.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Have you ever seen a day in the financial markets when so much pertinent information was disregarded?
Yellen is getting grilled by congress……..for not turning over information they have requested.
RIOTS BREAK OUT………..just as I said……..WED…….game up for the GREEK leadership.
SANTA CRUZ CALIFORNIA………..county decides not to do business with TBTF….zerohedge……….kicks the bums out.
By staying out of the Iraq/Syria thing – no boots on the ground (Well, not that many ) – the muslim world can’t complain that it is all the West’s fault.
Maybe the ‘plan’ of the US, UK, etc, has been to step back and watch a bunch of fundamentalist muslims, Shias and Sunnis, killing one another. At the very least, they can’t blame us…
Well, not that it will stop them blaming us… but it has to be clear even to the village idiot that muslims are now repsonsible for the most deaths of… muslims.
Hmmm…sure, I guess, if you want to think in a very direct and limited way.
The US has been working on regime change in Syria for years and arming all these fundamentalists.
Not to mention creating a power vacuum in Iraq in which they can operate. Destroying Libya and Afghanistan and empowering radicals there. Training those who became Al Qaeda, for crying out loud!
Worth a read over a cup of tea and a custard slice.
‘Decoding the IMF: Greek deal doomed, exit likely’
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/greece-crisis-austerity-deal-pointless/4197#more-4197
If, as this article believes, the Greeks will soon exit then surely the USD will get rally against the Euro and all commodities will fall as a result? Maybe that will be the buying opportunity for gold/silver?
thanks for the info………….
Chris,
The leaders of the European countries announced how they are saving Greece. They said they are monetizing assets to create capital for the banks and paying down the debt. That mechanism will be done across the world including the US, as Greece is the micro of the macro.
So the reason why Yellen Can raise rates in because the new restructured financial system will creat capital and save our economy. It won’t save stocks this fall though. The fiat debt system has run it’s course.
And I think Hillary has a much better chance of being indicted than being elected.
The banks, by monetizing assets of Greece, are merely stealing under another name.
The governments, including the U.S., that managed their debts by artificially keeping interest rates low are also stealing, under another name.
Everywhere you look , if you care to really look, you see crooks, liars and thieves.
I look for a revolution in which politicians get their just rewards.
I have a warm place for most of them, and just wish they will go there soon.
Politicians are puppets, the bankers are responsible, especially central bankers.
imf etc
CFS and HEATHEN
I hate to say it, but you are both wrong. What you have been learning from the “alternative” media (which is also controlled) is new age propaganda. I actually hate to admit it, but I used to buy into the Alex Jones / Russell Brand nonsense too. If you have read any new age books, then you would realize several things … not the least of which is the REAL AGENDA.
The sad truth is that sincere people like yourselves BELIEVE that you know what is going on when in actual fact you have had the wool pulled over your eyes. You only understand a portion of the truth … just enough to make you think that you got things figured out. Trust me … YOU DON’T.
Lol. That’s a lot of words to use to convey no information, from someone who knows the AGENDA!
So…Bentnail what is the “truth” ?
Bentnail…?!
Bueller….Bueller….??
Fry?….Fry?….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZOy6w6UsMY
This scene with Ben Stein still cracks me up.
Not all politicians. Its why the world has Donald Trumps and Frank Sinatras who want to do it ‘their way”. He is an interesting guy. Complete Maverick and probably nobodies puppet. He shoots first and asks questions later. Just the kind of guy who would do something unpredictable and get us all into a nasty war by saying what he really thinks instead of listening to advisers and more level headed guys who know the ropes of politics. Based on his emotionalism we should all worry if he wins the presidency.
A LISTENER,
Trump won’t win. A win by him does not tie in with the new age agenda.
New Age agenda? Sounds tin foily to me. lol
Ok, Bentnail, Perkins and Perloff are in left field, whats the agenda?
OK Doc, I think I finally have this thing pinned down.
I am talking about TCK of course.
For the longest time I kept thinking it was going all the way down to its 2008 low of 5.00 before reversing. I just realized that I am wrong. TECK in fact will most likely hit bottom before the next 60 days are gone.
Why would I say that? Well take a hard look at the long term chart encompassing the period going back to at least 2008. And what you will notice is that the TCK chart is actually in a long declining wedge that is currently just a couple dollars away from its termination point.
So we are probably looking at late August to early September for a final bottom near the 7.50 mark (at an eyeball guess). And that means that short of trying to time the exact bottom Teck is a buy and hold almost anytime during this summer (my opinion only….this is not investment advice for anyone else tuning in to the discussion).
But that’s not all. I still believe I can time the reversal in gold and silver with the bottom in TCK and if the assumption is correct that the moment of rotation arrives at that time then by virtue of the conclusion I am also predicting the overdue correction of the equities bull market.
I now believe that September will not bring the equities correction so many are predicting. Actually I now feel certain that it will be front-run by the market and we should be on high alert by middle August at the latest.
The correction could actually be underway already although the fireworks are still a month or more distant. The coming TCK bottom in August / September warns that the market will be moving out of general equities and into miners and resources beginning this summer.
There is almost no time to waste getting prepared.
So you are going to buy some gold miners now and ride the rally tha Gary and Rick think might be about to happen… and then bail out of them and into Teck?
I like it when a man has a plan.
Nope. I would be picking up G&S miners AND Teck at the same time. Most resources would come back in play if we do get a rotation. As Rick mentioned, the indices are already in decline based on internals even if we cannot see it based on the raw daily close.
I agree and think we may have already seen the top.
So I am looking for a couple of things to happen here at once. One of them is for long term treasuries to also finally bottom and reverse higher again. The 30 year is still well within its long term trend channel and could yet fall further but will be a good buy once we get a nasty equities decline to change the direction.
I am also going to be on the lookout for the Canadian dollar to start moving back up. It has been badly bloodied today and is surely on its way to .75……but that is not so far away. Its bottom may well coincide with other indicators telling us that a major change is in the wind.
Good thoughts A Listener.
Well, thank you!
Any thoughts on Vale and Freeport bottoming along with Teck in the next 2 months?
—————————————————————-
On July 7, 2015 at 11:03 am,
Shad says:
It is interesting that BHP Billiton and Glencore are tracking very closely, and that Teck/Vale/Freeport-McMoran are all tracking very closely.
This kind of commodity sell-off (PMs/Oil/Base Metals) in the summer is exactly what we’ve been discussing and expecting for the June-Aug timeline. Again we are putting in the roughly 7 year low in the CRB commodity Index, so this seems right on target. Of course this could drag out until early 2016 (for the full 7 years), but this trip down in commodities, it if accelerates could be the end of the this cycle at 6 3/4 years.
We’ll see how it shakes out. Good time to watch and build your shopping list of quality companies for the next wave up in commodities. It may take a few months, or if Doc is correct early 2016, but best to be prepared to take advantage when the technical indicators show we are near bottom.
Here is a nice composite chart of some of the major Base Metals and Commodity players:
Featured companies: Teck Resources, Vale, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Antofagasta, Glencore Xstrata, and First Quantum.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?TCK,VALE,BHP,RIO,FCX,ANTO.L,GLCNF,FM.TO#
The only similarities between those charts is that they are all in decline. I am not drawing any conclusions from Vale or Freeport. My analysis focus is on TCK as it relates to both gold and the Canadian dollar. The observation I note is specifically about the declining wedge pattern seen on TCK and what I believe is an impending bottom in CAD and I have reasons for following this one stock more closely than others. I am also talking about a narrow timing band that looks to me to have come in sight and may also be indicating an near term equities market top. Nobody knows the time and date of course. I have just seen something new that caught my attention.
OK sounds good. I see the patterns of commodities and the patterns in Vale and Freeport closely correlating to Teck, but they are in different currencies. I can see how a bottoming in the CAD and topping in the USD would lift commodities, and am curious to see how things play out over the next 2 months.
Thanks for the feedback and I am also in agreement with your comments on long term treasuries up above.
Have a good one.
Those charts do not look good for me either Shad. We need to see a ocmbination of things to turn me positive. As you mentioned the CDN bottoming (which I think will stay at this level for a little longer) and a general interest of other investor entering the sector who want to skim some of the larger miners (which again will take some time).
Agreed Cory. It will take some time for the CDN to bottom and possibly even more time before we have some general interest in the larger investing community in the commodity sector……and probably a little more pain to go in the commodities yet.
The day will come come though where commodities will be the recipient of money fleeing the general markets or just value hunters, and I would think in the next 2-6 months, or worse case, the first quarter of 2016.
Thanks for your consistently logical commentaries, Chris!
Gotta agree about Clinton being the Democrats Bob Dole…and definitely a $3 bill if not an empty box.
But the Rs better be careful with Iraq… It’s not that we never should’ve pulled out; it’s that we never should’ve gone in. Iraq is the headache that keeps on thumping thanks to the Bush Dynasty. Lot’s of cost and no benefits.
Gold/XAU is new high, over 20. It is unbelievable. I started interested in silver when it was 3.5. No one wants gold/silver miners. If they lose money and at same time they cannot raise money, what will happen?
simple………..close the doors………………
PRAYER;.. personal reflection… being the best person you can be…admitting your fallibility toGod… yourself and others…fear of God……Cash….gold……silver….cash …gold… silver………cash… gold….silver…..any questions???..:).