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Energy, Precious Metals and the Conventional Markets

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July 18, 2015

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*Disclosure: This is Dan Kurz, investment adviser for Naples Asset Management.  My remarks today are general in nature.  They are personal observations based on global financial, economic, and political developments and trends.  My observations are topical on the date made and reference asset valuations, interest rates, and inflation rates as of the same day only.  I am not soliciting business.  I would welcome follow-up discussions with listeners/potential clients as regards strategic portfolios should they be interested and assuming my firm is duly licensed in the listener’s state.


 

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Discussion
293 Comments
    Jul 18, 2015 18:49 AM

    Great update on Rye Patch – thanks. Re Seg 3 quite right to say that China’s Central bank may only hold 1685 tonnes….EXCEPT don’t ever play poker with the Chinese!

    http://kingworldnews.com/dr-stephen-leeb-7-18-15/

    Jul 18, 2015 18:27 AM

    THE CHINESE ARE SMART, why announce a HUGE amount NOW, everyone knows that those numbers are BULL……………all of this will unfold in OCTOBER and AFTERWARDS!

    Jul 18, 2015 18:30 AM

    NOTE: IF THE WEST WANTS TO GIVE CHINA ALL THEIR GOLD AT THIS LOW PRICE THEN LET THEM DO SO! The physical market will be KING SOON!

      CFS
      Jul 18, 2015 18:27 AM

      How stupid it is for the West to give China a cut-price on the very tools by which they will kill the US dollar.

        Jul 19, 2015 19:47 AM

        HOW STUPID…………………..? Look at our economy for that answer!

    Jul 18, 2015 18:53 AM

    I find the prognosticators who are predicting a continuation of governmental power against commodities and increasing totalitarianism to be more truthful than any hopeful aspirations about precious metals threatening the status quo.

    What we can count on in the future of our US/UK/European-dominated world is:
    1.) More suppression of any alternative to fiat currencies (USD/Euro)
    2.) Credit freeze as the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates, and soon cannot print, magnifying the current Stagflation into more specific Inflation
    3.) Governments becoming more rapacious for tax revenue and less tolerant of any criticism by anyone

    None of the governments in charge have lost their corporate sponsors, nor the power to suppress, nor the power to tax, which is the power to destroy. Everything else derives from this power for the short term.

      Jul 18, 2015 18:22 AM

      well said…………….

        Jul 18, 2015 18:39 PM

        Ditto on well said…..

      Jul 18, 2015 18:23 AM

      Different way of putting it jhpace 1 – There will come a time when the status quo of fiat currencies will exhaust itself leaving PMs in sole charge. The ‘when’ this happens is largely immaterial.

        Jul 18, 2015 18:31 AM

        So don’t succumb to the bearish hype/conspiracy theories either guys.

        http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1437149245.php

          Jul 18, 2015 18:00 AM

          I’ve read that article, and it has some good points about naked shorting.

            Jul 18, 2015 18:15 AM

            EXCELLENT REPORT ON ……….SHORTS…will need to cover……..Bullish sign indeed.

            Jul 18, 2015 18:16 AM

            LOOKS like a 16.5% ……return back to $1335 coming soon.

            CFS
            Jul 18, 2015 18:31 AM

            The shorts will keep on shorting and then CASH settle. There will be no need for them to cover, and thereby drive UP the price. All thanks to regulatory authorities being asleep.

            Jul 18, 2015 18:00 AM

            Cash settle….will be a good sign. Meaning there is no supply.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:18 AM

          Thanks Andy for the post ……….j……..ootb

            Jul 18, 2015 18:47 PM

            FFM…they don’t need supply to settle…a naked short, as I understand it, is a short contract backed by nothing…that’s why it’s called naked…you have nothing to cover with…they will keep doing this for as long as the regulatory authorities look the other way..physical supply running low has no bearing on it…this happened quite frequently in the 70’s with pork bellies..specs would naked short the market and make a boat load of money with no skin in the game…xperienced it first hand at Merrill Lynch…

            Jul 19, 2015 19:03 AM

            Gator…..thanks for the info. Well, if we are counting on the regulatory authorities to do anything , we will be waiting a long time for the market to change.

          Jul 19, 2015 19:38 PM

          All of the people commenting about the piece by Adam Hamilton have totally missed the entire point and have accomplished little more than to show they don’t understand how commodity markets work.

          1. There is no such thing as naked short selling in commodities any more than there is naked long buying. There are and can be naked shorts in stocks but not in commodities, it is a zero sum game. One buyer and one seller per contract. There are shorts and there are longs but no naked shorts. Period. If someone tells you there are naked shorts in commodities you know automatically they don’t know what they are talking about. I was a commodity broker and every commodity broker will say exactly the same thing.

          2. If you short a contract you have to buy it back. Via the market or via a cash settlement. All S&P or DOW futures are imaginary contracts. No shares ever trade hands, all buying and selling is in cash. A cash purchase of gold has exactly the same upwards pressure as covering a short position. Selling futures makes them go down, buying futures make them go up. If you short, you have to cover at some point.

          Adam has made an incredibly important point. For years and years, silver ran with price. At bottoms there were about 75,000 contracts, at tops there were about 150,000 contracts. You could make a lot of money doing nothing more than buying and selling based on the number of contracts.

          The open interest on silver touched over 200,000 contracts in late June. That an all time record. Here’s how it works. Speculators buy and sell futures, any futures, it doesn’t matter what it is. The commercials automatically cover. They know speculators are almost always wrong. So as more and more people shorted silver, the commercials covered every contract. So we have both record highs in the open interest, at 185,000 contracts this week and near record highs in commercial longs. The silver market is going to be explosive when it blows. You can follow the consensus by watching the premium for the Sprott Silver ETF. It hit a record discount in late May and has been trending up ever since. Every time in the past since the ETF began, when the premium went negative and turned, there would be a sharp rally in silver.

          http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-value/

          At all major tops and bottoms in every commodity or stock market, virtually all of the “experts” are caught off side. The fact that so many people are calling for lower gold and silver is really positive for the metals.

            Jul 19, 2015 19:08 PM

            +1 Bob

            Jul 19, 2015 19:17 PM
            Jul 19, 2015 19:52 PM

            Bob What will happen if more delivery is demanded by longs than the physical the shorts possess?

            Jul 20, 2015 20:18 AM

            That was interesting. Excellent find Matthew. Everyone here should read that article. Maybe Al will get Ferguson back on to discuss it in a bit more detail. Major positioning is taking place if so many are standing for delivery. It means the game has changed abruptly.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:55 AM

            YES BIG OWL , NEEDS TO cover the topic…of the….. MISSING NAKED SHORTY…

            Jul 20, 2015 20:56 PM

            Lawrence: Cash settlement but that’s for a very valid and logical reason. If you allowed unlimited demand for delivery, anyone with enough money could corner any market. These markets exist to determine the right price, not to deliver goods. Virtually all deliveries in grain, interest rates, currencies, gold, and silver are done off the exchange, the exchange sets prices, you deliver or take delivery once both sides agree on price. You hedge via futures and deliver off market.

          Jul 20, 2015 20:58 AM

          Hamilton is bearish on the US dollar
          http://www.zealllc.com/2015/parausdx.htm

        CFS
        Jul 18, 2015 18:03 AM

        I reported in this forum about CALPERS, the California Public Employees Retirement fund achieving only a 2.5% return last year.
        It was better than Chicago’s 2.4%. But this is important to many US residents any property owners. Indeed it maybe a future BLACK SWAN EVENT that is not being discussed.
        What do you think cities and even states will do when they find that there is not enough money in their pension funds to pay promised pensions?

        If you think they will respond by cutting benefits to public employees, please think again.

        I just had a conversation with a person that knows the Cook county situation (Chicago) and he informs me that behind closed doors there are discussions going on about how to raise property taxes by 30%.
        I suspect there are similar discussions going on across the nation; especially in major socialist run cities and states, where there has always been yielding in favor of unions to wages and pensions.
        On Average around the nation funded pensions are assumed to be capable of earning a 7.75% return on investments.
        ALL PENSION FUNDS ARE FALLING SHORT.
        This will result in raised taxes in future.
        Since, in my opinion, the level of taxation is already too high for significant growth in the US economy, on average, the pension problem could be much more serious than many think.

          CFS
          Jul 18, 2015 18:20 AM

          To further put the pension fund problem in context:
          The size of the CALPERS fund is approx $300 Billion.
          Neglecting the fact that is already under-funded because of longevity of pensioners, the 5% shortfall is approx $ 60 Billion that has to be sucked out of the California economy in order to meet obligations or a reduction in the capitalization of the fund that will create even bigger problems down the road.
          This is an unforeseen consequence of governments holding interest rates low!

            CFS
            Jul 18, 2015 18:24 AM

            Correction: the shortfall is $15 Billion, while $ 60 Billion is the amount needed to put CALPERS back into actuarially correct funding.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:46 PM

          thanks for the info…CFS.

    LPG
    Jul 18, 2015 18:01 AM

    Hope everyone is well and having a good WE thus far.

    So…..
    1) Richard/Doc expects a bottom in gold within 3-4 mths (see Friday’s interview)
    2) Avi is (still) calling for a bottom within 3-4 mths for the metal.

    ==> Although I have no clue where prices will be in 3-4 mths, let alone next week, I do value/appreciate seeing people reaching the same conclusions but coming from different perspectives/angles.

    FWIW, as mentioned in one post yesterday, I would welcome gold below $1000/Oz as
    1) (stating the obvious) it would make it cheaper to buy…. but
    2) MORE IMPORTANTLY this would probably contribute to washing out bullish sentiment further and would likely make HEADLINES in the financial press all over the world (IMHO, one of the best contrarian indicators out there from an historical perspective).

    THE STRATEGY/GAME PLAN:
    As also mentioned yday, I have ample firepower (currently 76% cash on my portfolio) to deploy in the next few mths and intend to deploy capital “aggressively” at lower levels both on selected stocks and on gold.
    In the past, I wrote that back in late Oct/early Nov last year, I had been “snipping” on stocks but that IF/WHEN lower lows on gold come, it would be “open fire” season.
    Well, what I meant when I just wrote a few lines above that I will deploy cash “aggressively”, is that it will be “open fire” this time.
    To put some numbers, I expect the cash portion on my portfolio to go from 76% currently to about 20-25% (ball park, depending on which orders don’t get filled).
    I always keep some cash in the portfolio to
    a) take advantage of some market anomalies/distortions once in a while (they always occur) and
    b) to adjust for inherent/unavoidable mistakes in my investing process and/or execution.

    THE PLAN… AFTER THE PLAN:
    I stick to the strategy of having a plan, and also “A PLAN AFTER THE PLAN”.
    Those who have read some of my posts since last year are familiar with this concept.
    As far as I’m concerned, a good chunck of my cash will be deployed on PM stocks at, broadly speaking, 10-20% lower levels from yday’s closing. I will perform the capital deployment on a case by case basis.
    I also have a chunk of capital waiting to be deployed at 20-40% lower from here, but I am not sure prices will go as low on some stocks – I will consider myself LUCKY if they do. So I have ALREADY considered what to do with this chunck of allocated capital IN CASE the 20-40% lower levels don’t occur (that’s the plan after the plan).
    And in case we get much lower than -40% on some stocks from current levels, well… I am still expecting to have 20-25% cash after those 2 levels of cash deployment (see above) so I will be able to accomodate specific situations IF I choose to.

    THE BENEFITS OF BEING PREPARED:
    Irrespective of what the markets do, orders are already in place, on a case by case basis. Said it otherwise: I AM TRYING TO BE PREPARED AHEAD OF POTENTIAL EVENTS (lower prices), so that if they come/occur:
    1) EMOTIONALLY: I am mentally ready for a decline so I won’t panic if stocks go lower
    2) PRACTICALLY: my plan (buy orders on each stock) is already in place so from now on, I don’t have to think too much about what to do if lower prices occur.

    TO CONCLUDE A NOW LONG POST:
    1) I do agree with Avi on the fact that IIIIFFFFFFF one doesn’t get exposure/buy gold at around $1000 (his $98 target on GLD), then one has NOTHING to do with this market.
    Keeping fire power in case a final, abrupt move down occur is very wise (to use an analogy: Xmas sales are great, but nothing beats Black Friday).

    2) Those who believe they will be able to time the bottom to the day are, IMHO, due for a disappointment – as always.
    Having said that, there are 22 trading days per mth, so assuming we get THE low in gold within 4 mth, that gives anyone 1 chance out of 88 to call the bottom on a random basis. That’s >1%. chance Not bad. As each day passes, the %age of chances to nail it at random go up.
    So in fact, it’s possible THAT THIS TIME a few of us will be able to time the bottom to the day – even by sheer luck 🙂 🙂 :-).
    Personally, assuming we hit lower lows in the next few weeks/mths vs. yday’s lows, I have ZERO clue where gold will bottom. I have ZERO clue and can live/invest without having an idea. We are ball park at the cost of production of many producers, and any price below that is good in value terms (the lower, the better). Those who have read my posts in the past when discussing price vs. value for gold will understand what I am relating to here.

    3) ASSUMING “we” are correct in the opinion that we are witnessing the end of a cyclical correction within a secular bull market in gold, then, 12mths from now, some stocks might be much higher than what they are trading now (and even much higher than the potential lower levels they might reach within the next few weeks).
    The BEST way to capitalize on %age of gains is to buy when stocks/gold are down, not up.
    I repeat:
    THE BEST WAY TO CAPITALIZE ON %AGE OF GAINS IS TO BUY WHEN STOCKS/GOLD ARE DOWN, NOT UP.

    4) IF we are correct on where we are in the cycle, NOW is an IDEAL time to get prepared, have a plan, a plan after the plan, have orders in place, and to welcome/rejoice at the idea of lower prices coming on the PM stocks and the metals.

    5) Some wise words from uncle Winston, to remember during tough days: “When going through hell, keep going”

    Good luck to all investing/trading, and enjoy the end of your WE.

    LPG
    “When going through hell, keep going”

      Jul 18, 2015 18:25 AM

      Most so called experts are just guessing, and have not idea what the govt. has planned, and if the govt has a plan, they sure will not be letting it known to anyone.

        Jul 18, 2015 18:39 AM

        Your” ZERO clue,” ……..is in total alignment with the experts……..NOW you can join the ranks of the experts. 🙂

          Jul 18, 2015 18:49 AM

          AVI………WAIT AND SEE…………….

          Jul 18, 2015 18:55 AM

          AVI………1.two more months…,2. Physical long term ,3. snap back to $1400

          LPG
          Jul 18, 2015 18:10 PM

          FFM,

          Thanks for the suggestion 🙂

          I prefer to stick within the “Zero clue” category as opposed to join the ranks of the experts. I have a lot to learn on many topics: so “Zero clue” is definitely where I belong. And to be honest, I find my ignorance very comfortable – no need for me to move. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          Best to you, and hope all’s good.

          LPG

        CFS
        Jul 18, 2015 18:37 AM

        The U.S. Government does not even have a clue, so why should anyone think they have a plan. Other than the Big Zero, whose plan is the destruction of the US as we knew it. If Congress had a clue there would have been impeachment right after the 2014 elections.
        Corruption is extensive and the country and democracy are dying.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:53 AM

          . . . and to the Republic for which it stands . . .

          Jul 18, 2015 18:54 PM

          CFS..in total agreement..well said…

      LPG
      Jul 18, 2015 18:30 AM

      Ok… I have to correct myself.

      I misquoted Avi by saying he expects a bottom for the metal in the next 3-4 mths.
      Avi expects “2 maybe 3 mths” before the end of this 4 yr correction (listen at 7mn for a few sec). My apologies for misquoting him.

      Asssuming Avi is right in his view, at 22 trading days over 3 mths, that gives 1 chance out of 66 (>1.5% chance) for anyone to call the bottom on anyday at random ! 🙂 🙂 🙂
      Statistically speaking, there will definitely be a few of us who will say: “I told you ! I called it !”
      🙂

      Best to all,

      LPG

      Jul 18, 2015 18:51 AM

      Hi, LPG!
      My big problem has always been to sell my miners at the best timeperiod. I buy when they are making a low and hold them when they go up. But because this is a mining bear market im used to sell to early and the result is they go up a lot moore before they turn down. This bearmarket has taken control of my decisions because i’ve been afraid of holding the shares to long and risking my profits because miners are aleays going down after a short while. Now when we have some guidance from Gary, doc and Avi its good but i think if you dont have a plan when to sale your miningshares you can miss good profits. I mean that we have all been in this bearmarket for a couple of years and our minds dont trust any lasting uptrend so we might sell our miningshares to early when we enter a new bullmarket soon. We must prepare to know when to sell our shares we bought at the bottom or we might sell them to soon.

        LPG
        Jul 18, 2015 18:08 PM

        Hello Blue,

        Your input makes a lot of sense, and I can relate to what you are saying.
        In a bear market, basically, any pop is an occasion to get out/reduce exposure. Obviously, this is easy to say in hindsight, but more difficult to do in the middle of the action.

        *********
        As I just re-read my post before submitting it, something just jumped to mind about your post, so I’ll squeeze a few words here now.
        Your post is actually very valuable FOR YOU, for 2 reasons:
        1) you are very honest in acknowledging one of your weakness in the investment process and
        2) you have identified the issue.
        Personally, I think that’s fantastic. 1/2 the job is done.
        Now there’s just one, one little thing to do: change this bad habit that you have. And to change your habit, you have to change your mindset.
        And to change your mindset, you have to “hurt” yourself mentally.
        You have to change what you are used to do and do things differently.
        When you will change your mindset, the way you look at stocks, you will do things differently.
        Once you start to do things differently, you will get different outcomes.
        It will hurt mentally, but it will work.
        Now, the “good news” is that IFFF we are right on our view of where gold is, gold is about to end its cyclical bear market. So gold is about to resume the up move, and this in itself is likely to make it easier for you to change your habits, coz PM stocks prices, overall, should start to trend up, as opposed to start trending down in the cyclical bear.
        *********

        I’ll put my 2 cts on the topic now of taking profits, if you don’t mind.
        1) the best way to protect profits is to TAKE PROFITS. As the say goes: “nobody ever went broke by taking profits”.
        BUT TAKING PROFITS IS PAINFUL.
        Let me repeat: TAKING PROFITS IS PAINFUL.
        Actually, being a good investor is painful.
        It is painful to buy when something is going down down down. You buy at a certain level, and if you are a bit far off from the bottom, you see the dollars you just put to work going down down down in value right away. Painful experience.
        Then, assuming you have bought with a good timing (ie close to the recent bottom, without too much pain), you see your profits grow grow grow… As you start to rejoice, you want more. But at that time you are starting to enjoy your profits grow, you have to resolve yourself to part ways with some of the profits. You have to get rid of what was starting to give you joy/pleasure: painful experience again.
        So I’ll repeat: being a good investors is painful.
        Rick Rule said it in a different way when he said: “between good prices and comfort, you have to choose – you cannot have both”.

        2) One way to reduce risk:
        If you have the opportunity to take 100% profits on any stocks, I would suggest that selling 50% of the position (of the # of shares held) and letting the rest ride is an interesting possibility (what Doug Casey sees as a “free ride”): by doing so, you bring your cost back to 0 and get your capital back. The rest of your position is running w. 0% risk for you.
        An acquaintance of mine disagrees and says, in a nutshell: “when a stock is up more than 100%, I’d sell enough shares to give me a 10% return on my initial capital, and let the rest ride for free at 0% risk. So that I didn’t get all my capital back: I got my capital PLUS 10%”.
        I guess you get the point, so I’ll stop here as everyone has his/her own preferences.

        3) If we are right w. the view that this is the end of a cyclical bear within a secular bull for gold, then the “issues” you had encountered in the bear phase should reverse.
        In a bull phase, every dip is an opportunity to get in – but most will be scared to do so due to their recent experience with the PMs/the sector.

        4) I’d say something which might be a bit controversial, but I’ll stick to my views anyway:
        IFFFFF Avi is proven right and gold moves to say….about $1000 (his $98 on GLD translates to about $1022 for spot gold) and then moves back up to the $1400 he mentioned and IIFFFFFFFF this $1400 is reached by 2016-end, then I AM INTIMATELY CONVINCED THAT MOST OF THE QUALITY PM STOCKS ARE LIKELY TO AT LEAST DOUBLE BETWEEN what they will be trading at if/when gold reaches $1020 and when/if gold reaches $1400 again.
        Those PM stocks of low quality might not double, but the best quality PM stocks are likely to.
        THAT SHALL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE A FREE RIDE ON THE SHARES YOU BOUGHT WHEN GOLD REACHES THE $1000 ZONE.

        If you have read my posts once in a while, you will remember that I started buying some shares on the last week of October and the first week of November last year (2014).
        During the very first few days of November, the shares I had just bought kept going down: that was painful.
        BUT…. on November 6, those shares bottomed, and gold itself bottomed for the year on November 7 (one day after the stocks).
        By the end of Jan 2015, some positions I had bought in Oct/Nov had moved up 70% (as gold moved from 1133 to 1310 something…). I trimmed some positions here and there afterwards during the year. It was PAINFUL AGAIN – but necessary.

        As of right now, I just expect to do rince/repeat, but just in large size because I believe we are in the last innings of what I consider a cyclical bear. I might be wrong on my view, but this is my view.
        So I have set-up orders to deploy ample amount of capital at lower levels on stocks.
        I do NOT expect to nail the bottom, so I expect some pain ahead AGAIN 🙂 . But I am mentally prepared – and as I consider pain to be part of the process, it’s less painful to me :-).
        IF gold gets close to $1020, I’ll deploy capital. And if we get another final abrupt, nasty move down toward $800-900, I’ll deploy more capital (it’s ready). Here again, I’ll expect more pain.

        But if I am correct, I will just wait to make 100% gains on some stocks, or maybe 110%, and reduce my risk to zero. It will be painful – but necessary.

        Rince, repeat.
        Painful, but I’m prepared.
        Painful, but I’m ready.

        I repeat: painful, but I’m prepared. Painful but I’m ready.

        Remember uncle Winston: “When going through hell, keep going”

        Best to you Blue, and good luck to all investing/trading.

        LPG
        “When going through hell, keep going”

        LPG
        Jul 18, 2015 18:42 PM

        Blue,

        I forgot to mention something… I’ll throw it here, IN CASE this can help you or someone else.

        Before I add the $$$ to a position or put capital to work in a new position, I run some calculations on what will be my average cost then.

        Let’s take an example with stock A.
        I have decided to allocate say $100 to stock A and I already deployed $20 for that purpose.
        I have identified Levels and L2, L3 where I will deploy the remaining capital ($80=100-20) I dedicate to that stock A.
        On Excel, I have a little array where I simulate what will be my average cost after I add $$$ at L2, and what will be my average cost after I add $$$ at L3.

        What it means is that IN ADVANCE, I know what my average cost will be, if I follow my plan of deploying $$$ at the levels L2 and L3 I have identified beforehand.

        What it also means is that based on my simulated average cost, I know in advance where Stock A needs to trade in order for me to make 100% return on the stock.
        So in advance, I know where I should be reducing my exposure significantly, if I get a good move up after the capital is deployed.
        Finally, I typically look at the chart to see if on that zone for a 100% return, resistance has to be expected or not.

        So in this same example:
        Let’s say A is currently trading at $1.0.
        I have decide to add some capital if A reaches $0.8 (level L2) and even more capital if A reaches $0.56 (level L3).
        I have pre-calculated that when A reaches L3 ($0.56) and I add my final capital, my average cost will be $0.7.
        So in advance I know that when I add at L3, I will be down 20% on my position (0.56/0.7-1= -20%). And I will need stock A to reach 1.4 (my average cost of 0.7 x 2 = 1.4) in order for me to sell half the shares and bring my cost back to 0.
        If in this case I see potential resistance at 1.5 on the chart, it’s good coz I just need to sell at 1.4 to bring my cost back to 0.
        But if I suspect resistance will be tough at 1.2… then I know it will likely be difficult for me, in the first place, to make that 100% return on my average cost. [and in this case, sometimes I tweak my weighting: I reduce cash allocation for L2 and put more cash for L3 so that my average cost gets closer to 0.6 so that I can make a double a 1.2. But keep in mind that sometimes stocks won’t go to L3 so you might be left with still plenty of capital to deploy as you got filled at L2 but didn’t get filled at L3 —> here, you need a plan after the plan…]

        Hope this helps.

        Best to you Blue, and GL investing/trading.

        LPG

      Jul 18, 2015 18:14 AM

      Thank you for a great post LPG. Your are keeping emotions OUT of your trading and are always prepared with an objective plan. Congrats. Also, thanks for sharing.

        LPG
        Jul 18, 2015 18:14 PM

        Np Aida.

        Always happy to share some thoughts if this can assist some in the PROCESS/INVESTMENT PROCESS.
        I believe that most of the success in investing, as in many things in life, is in the preparation. And preparation is always, always before things occur.

        Best to you, and to all.

        LPG

      Jul 20, 2015 20:44 AM

      Great thoughts as per usual LPG. Yes, I like the practical plan, and the “plan after the plan” concept, and keeping emotions out of the trade. Yes, we’ve been waiting for a sentiment wash-out in PMs, and I agree with you that if Gold dropped down to the $1000-$1050 zone (I’ve had the support targets of $1044.70 and one lower at $993.20 posted on here since Feb if $1137 and $1131 failed….and they now have). When I see this play out, I just see it as one level has been taken out and switch to the plan after the plan of the next technical level and see what the new data shows.

      I have also been holding cash and had money allocated to other sectors, mostly since early May, waiting to see if we’d get the summer slump and mentioned all year I expected a potential intermediate low (and even potentially the Major Bottom) this summer. Seasonally July is a rough month for PMs and we’ve posted and discussed some of the those charts for months now, and so when Gold takes a nosedive in July, it seems right on schedule.

      This summer timing band was ripe for a PM decline, and it has begun, but will it wash out the sentiment? As Gary and Doc mentioned, we could have a healthy short-covering bounce to get bullish sentiment back in for a final washout later in the year or early 2016? Personally, I’d like something more dramatic that creates “headlines” as you stated so well. If Gold breaks decisively lower out of the falling wedge support trend line, and really gets PM bulls and the mining companies concerned, and everyone throws in the towel, then it would feel like the bloodbath phase has arrived and a real bottom. Personally, I’d like to get the plunge done now, end the 4 year Bear, and start the gradual climb back up. I intend to get a nice weighting in smaller Silver and Gold producers once the market indicates the madness is at an extreme level. This July plunge, and breaking of $1131 support is one step closer.

        LPG
        Jul 20, 2015 20:40 AM

        Hello Shad,

        Hope all’s well.

        Looking at the overnight action on the futures, you’ve got your step closer ! 🙂

        Best to you as always, and GL for this week and the coming ones.

        LPG

          Jul 20, 2015 20:20 AM

          Thank LPG. Yes it is looking like we things are heading lower this morning, but I would be wary of a bull trap if we bounce up before getting down into the $1050-$1000 area. If we had a big drop down to that level and there was a bit more panic in the space, then that would be more of a bottoming. Well see how the week shapes up.

          May you invest well my friend. Cheers!

    Jul 18, 2015 18:11 AM

    Jhpace1,

    you are 100% correct. The filthy communists in both parties are not getting weaker, they are getting stronger with access to the most guns and the best technology. The advantage is overwhelming.

    The entrenched oligarchs have millions of cowardly greedy Americans who work with-in the govt construct, and who believe completely in the corrupt system. They will fight to protect the system no matter how bad it has become.

    These same gutless wonders will follow unconstitutional illegal orders to suppress and/or even kill their fellow Americans to keep the ponzi scheme afloat, receive their pay check and protect the privileged class of bankers and politicians in charge.

    The Tavistock Institute, Rockefeller Foundation and the Carnegie Institute social re-engineering propaganda programs have been widely successful and the programming is for all practical purposes, complete.

    The nation has lost its soul and its roots, which means the nations very vitality is not far behind.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:41 AM

    +1

    Jul 18, 2015 18:57 AM

    Physical silver is simply a buffer from the coming KAOS…..even Maxwell Smart gets it…….

    Jul 18, 2015 18:05 AM

    RICKARDS: Why Most Gold Bugs and Bloggers are Dead Wrong About China’s Gold

    http://dailyreckoning.com/why-most-gold-bugs-and-bloggers-are-dead-wrong-about-chinas-gold/

    I am always suspicious of Rickards. He worked for the government in the past and
    he seems to know exactly what is the game plan.

    Do you really thing that China only wants to play in the “club” and follow the same
    rules ? Maybe I forgot to read “The Art of War”.

    I would like to have your opinions everybody.

    Thanks

      Jul 18, 2015 18:16 AM

      That is the LAST THING China wants to do…I can assure you that….. NO, sure and they want to divi-up the South China Sea to any sovereign that wants some….:)

        Jul 18, 2015 18:18 AM

        good morning MARC………….

          Jul 18, 2015 18:21 AM

          DID you listen to AVI………I thought he was spot on with his thoughts concerning holding physical, long term, ………this is the first time I have heard him confirm this.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:08 AM

          GOOD MORNING JERRY!!!..Yes, Avi came out with an article predicting $25,000 gold in the coming years….he is bulllish physical long term….

      Jul 18, 2015 18:17 AM

      DITTO on “suspicious of Rickards”

      Jul 18, 2015 18:35 AM

      Gabriel,

      Rickards is telling the truth in this snippet. The Chinese are absolutely apart of the fiat club. They clearly want a bigger role from a global monetary and military perspective.

      They don’t want a silly gold standard anymore than the US does, but you’ll never hear that from people who entire existence revolves around gold and silver. They just want more say in the big scheme with the Yuan in a power SDR position of influence and they get that enforcement power through owning tons of gold stored safely away as a balancing power tool to help facilitate their desire for equality and Asian hegemony.

      In truth the Chinese love paper and will never do away with it as form of a state issued currency.

      Do not ever forget………the Chinese ruling party is firmly apart of the global hierarchy ruling class, otherwise known as the “club”. The rest of this nonsense is just BS to get you and everyone else to believe in fantasy.

      If the truth be known, the Chinese Communist party prefers the US dollar as the reserve currency at this moment in time almost as must as the US Communists.

      In another 5-10 or so years they will start to transition the Yuan to a reserve currency counter-balance in a global basket of paper and digital currency units with a backing of gold content that the average person will never see or touch.

      The Chinese love paper………..after all, they created it’s use as a metallic substitute.

        Jul 18, 2015 18:45 AM

        created for convenience……….not for deception of value…..OR so we are told……..
        🙂

          Jul 18, 2015 18:00 AM

          Yes that’s whats so ironic about this debate.

          The Chinese love the paper game just like everyone else because it is easy to print, spend, control and
          the convenience to manipulate for international balance of payment values as well as Central Bank shenanigans for debt related currency devaluing schemes……………just like in the west.

          People better wise up and see the world as it really is, not what they wish it to be.

          The value of the Chinese Yuan paper instruments are their primary concern. Gold is their secondary back stop that can be available during a catastrophic currency and insolvency event where the endgame applies.

            Jul 18, 2015 18:13 AM

            When the Chinese announce 20,000 or 30,000 tonnes of gold they will be in a position to create the market price on the LBMA and at home.At that point in time they make the rules as they have announced that their currency is the strongest on earth.
            Gold ownership is the primary instrument that in turn facilitates the global (paper) control,just as the Yanks ,Brits,Spanish et al have done before. The difference is the Chinese are not plundering,killing,enslaving and impoverishing much of the world to achieve the same end.

            CFS
            Jul 18, 2015 18:03 AM

            Matt,
            You do know China already killed more people than did Hitler!

        Jul 18, 2015 18:56 AM

        They surely love the US paper …
        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/china-dumps-record-143-billion-us-treasurys-three-months-belgium

        I’m trying to read the signs. Given what I know about western bankers and what they will do and have done to skim yield, by hook or by crook, the east is growing tired of the dishonesty. LIBOR, forex, precious metals..all markets have been proven manipulated.
        In China, if they catch you doing that they kill you. Now I’m not in favor of that, but it shows how culturally different we are.
        Our white collar criminals pay a fine orders of magnitude less than the profit they made while stealing and cheating.
        They are sick of us and they will soon put us in our place. How?

        Create AIIB, to bypass IMF
        Defy Breton woods and deal in gold or other currencies for energy
        Hoard gold in secret, refuse reporting or audit (well just a small amount…)
        Read the signs.

        When the time is right, they will possibly create a new monetary system at least partially backed by precious metals so that currency debasing has limits.

        And if you think the fed has the gold they claim to in storage, don’t be shocked when you find out it has been sold, leased and re hypothecated into non existence. That’s what happens when there are no consequences to dishonesty, fraud and theft.

        But the money masters would like higher rates, and an ever stronger dollar. The better this will serve to let them roam about overseas and across the land,
        picking up income producing assets on the cheap.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:09 AM

          Govt. is totally out of control…….until there are term limits for these imbedded politicians , they will continue to lie, steal and cheat, because they know they can.
          The justice department is controlled, so there is no real just for the connected.
          The sooner the people understand this , the sooner we might get a change.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:38 PM

          Gabriel,
          My friend…my friend…you my friend have a excellent, excellent handle on things…U R SPOT ON!!! No question about that!!! Your family is very very fortunate to have you!!
          Peace!

            Jul 18, 2015 18:49 PM

            Well thanks SD Marc. This is what my wife always said … :).
            Just hope that things will change one day for the better !

        Jul 18, 2015 18:33 AM

        Paper is dying but with digital currencies the state will have all it’s citizens locked in strait jackets, with that kind of power I’m not sure gold will mean anything anymore except as a component of jewelry.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:10 AM

    Re:Transparency and conspiracy theories.
    If transparency were what some envision then there would be an audit in the last half century at Fort Knox,Libya and the Ukraine gold would not have been stolen and the Germans would have their gold the requested from the Yank.
    So,the Chinese are attempting to get into the global currency club but the Brits stole their silver and gold once,enslaved their people with Opium, stole their land and declared war on them but some think they should be telling you what they really own before they even get into IMF club.

      Jul 18, 2015 18:20 AM

      Exactly what I think Matt.
      +1 Ditto.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:40 AM

    SEG 5………Dan K…….great comments.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:19 AM

    Off message but only slightly…For ‘there’s a hole in my bucket dear Liza’ read The Night Watchman…

    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/07/18/night-watchman/

      Jul 18, 2015 18:02 PM

      Great article…….funny we have talked about this several times in the last several years. Seems like no one cares, and no one is going to do anything about it. Been taking about this problem since 1979.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:27 AM

    A whole new meaning to the term fire sale. See Zero hedge…

    greece-burning-literally

      Jul 18, 2015 18:04 PM

      LIKE GEROLD Cellenti said,,,,,,,,,”when the people lose everything , they lose it”

    Jul 18, 2015 18:32 AM

    Just heard Donald Trump talk live at family convention on Cspan . He wows the crowd .But i predict he will burn out soon . Intermperate remarks on John McCain [tho partially true] will turn people off. His previous support of Clintons, and others and frequent changes of positions will make people say no to trump. I think in 2 months his polls will start to drop and someone else [Cruz, Rubio, and Carly Fiorino] will start to rise. I agree with others that gold and oil will drop for several more months. best of health and wealth to you all S

    Jul 18, 2015 18:53 AM

    Rickards tells it like the govt wants him to.
    China does have more gold than anyone. The clear evidence of that is that every country is papered up to AIIB. It looks like gold underpins the infrastructure bank. That being evident, means that a new currency structure is soon to happen. I think the biggest play that forces the issue is the new payment system ( no one talks about ) that either will replace SWIFT or run along side of it. The control of the payment system has been how the oligarchs get their way. So the physical market with the BRICS and AIIB along side of the new payment system is the game changer. Countries will no longer have to clear commodity trades using the USD and SWIFT. And from what I’ve read, it’s ready to go. I think the cure for Greece is the same cure for the rest of the world. Creating capital by monetizing assets = new financial system. The new system should be when the Greece banks are re-capitalized.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:53 PM

    I wonder how many foreign conflicts the CHINESE have been involved with in the same time period America has graced the planet.Any idea on how many military bases -official and covert-the Yanks are operating and have operated in this time frame…….

    CFS
    Jul 18, 2015 18:55 PM

    Off topic:
    Not a single person has been killed in this country in recent history from a killer acquiring inspiration from the confederate flag and generals. Yet our governmental idiots, led by our racist dictator are even disinterring a confederate general! On the other hand, we have had a number of Islamic terror attacks on our soil since 9/11 that have been directly inspired by the Islamic ideology and the teachings of Sharia and yet our allowed immigration from Islamic countries has recently more than doubled. WHY?
    (And that does not even consider illegal immigration, which is often described as Hispanic or Mexican, but, in fact, includes many others.)

      Jul 18, 2015 18:03 PM

      CFS,
      It might have been off topic, but an interesting one… The current US flat is actually the union flag ; with added stars.) the more I research the more I like the confederate documents and I better understand what the civil war was actually about. In today’s world, true patriotism gets you on a list. So uh.. Fk um. If love of God and country becomes a question? It’s time to get it on!

      Jul 18, 2015 18:05 PM

      CFS Not off topic as far as I’m concerned..the more it is discussed the more people will see this Marxist authoritarian hoodlum in the White House for what he is and realize his intent on destroying the U.S. You can include the clueless Congress when it comes to participation with the hoodlum…

        Jul 19, 2015 19:55 AM

        Black Panthers in GAINSVILLE…………and KKK in Charleston, SC………any comments.

          Jul 19, 2015 19:20 PM

          FFM…are the panthers associated with any organization in Gainsville ? any connection to UF ?

    Jul 18, 2015 18:59 PM

    I always love the make-out bumper music in segment 8.

      Jul 20, 2015 20:48 AM

      Hilarious Jason.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:19 PM

    Over a dozen years 750,000 Iraqi children accounted for the 3.3 million Iraq nationals exterminated in the latest exercise of mass distraction.
    A few guys with Cessna training and box cutters be should be enough for the greatest military machine on earth to annihilate an entire region of the world.
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-sponsored-genocide-against-iraq-1990-2012-killed-3-3-million-including-750000-children/5314461

    Jul 18, 2015 18:42 PM

    The Pan Am games are currently being held in Toronto and all The Moosehead Beer is sold out, the tourists have now heard of the order of The Moose, I can’t get any until Wednesday morning, AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! DT

      Jul 20, 2015 20:48 AM

      Uh oh…….Good luck restocking the Moose DT. : – )

    Jul 18, 2015 18:31 PM

    Stick to the important stuff,DT. ( sorry for your loss..

      Jul 18, 2015 18:36 PM

      It used to be ” the moose is loose ” . A good selling point would be ” the moose got tight “

        Jul 20, 2015 20:49 AM

        There will be a Moose squeeze soon.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:34 PM

    Anyone thinking gold is going down next week?? I’m thinking we get the big pop up this coming week. Like a move to 1225 or so. If you think it’s going down this week, can you state why ??
    Comments welcome!

      Jul 18, 2015 18:21 PM

      Chartster, you could be correct; in fact Gary feels we could get a correction on Monday. Let me throw out a couple of possibilities. 1.) Many of the PM stocks from a technical standpoint look like they want to fall further yet and I can’t wrap my brain around the fact that they look so technically at risk and would fall further while gold would correct up. 2.) We are very early in Gary’s intermediate cycle —next week is “only” week 18 and it would be very unusual for the cycle to end that early. A possibility is that we continue down next week and even the following week to challenge the high 1000s and 1100. Then August becomes THE key month.

        Jul 18, 2015 18:34 PM

        Doc,
        Thanks for the input. And yours means a lot! You have been ..so…spot it’s freaky. I should confess that I’ve second guessed your predictions, but it costed me to do that. Your TA and wisdom is much appreciated! Know that.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:48 PM

          Chartster, next week is going to be very interesting. If we continue down at a leisurely pace into the week after, I’ll feel a lot better for a good move up in August. I’ll repeat again that a lot of these stocks just broke down and technically, it would be very usual for them to just turn up. My big concern is that we don’t break the support line of the falling wedge on the monthly. If we do that, we’re going to get the washout everyone has been talking about. It would be the final bloodbath and that is the second scenario—it’s possible since the intermediate cycle for gold could go for another 7 weeks. That then should be the bottom for many of these PM stocks. In my book, those are the 2 possible scenarios going into fall. Either way, I feel we get the lows as mentioned in the next 4 months. What do you think?

            Jul 18, 2015 18:10 PM

            Doc,
            I’ve always thought we would get the bloodbath phase. I still see gold and miners going up this week. I think the washout in an up and down with further down movements. I think it will be a bottom ” fake out ” many times over until the final wash. My personal ” but phyz point ” is at 800 gold. I think it’s going lower, but that’s where I’m loading the truck.
            I think the bottom is September , but am convinced it’s from August to October.
            When the bottom is in, I think the miners double in one week when the commercials rush in.

            Jul 18, 2015 18:15 PM

            Buy phyz point. 800

            Jul 18, 2015 18:42 PM
            Jul 19, 2015 19:55 AM

            Gabriel, thanks for the chart and the summary. I’m not much of an elliot wave guy but it’s interesting to consider. It kind of verifies my thoughts for gold.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:01 AM

            Very good point Doc about if Gold were to break the support line on the monthly chart “falling wedge” pattern, that we’d likely get the washout now versus later in the year or 2016. As mentioned to LPG above, I’d almost rather see something more dramatic like that, which would generate “headlines” and a discussion of the gold in the economic news flow again.

            If we got down to the $1000-$1050 zone, or dipped below that briefly, then we’d likely have the bloodbath phase and the sentiment wash-out needed for a Major Bottom. It would be nice to just rip off the band-aid, get it over with, and then deploy cash towards great companies at a fire sale prices…..and I’d like to see the opportunity sooner rather than having to wait until 2016. However, getting a bounce out of this, at too high of a gold price (without the sentiment wash-out), will be an intermediate bottom and not the major bottom, so then new bullishness will come in, only for that to be taken lower again later in the year or 2016. Between those 2 scenarios, I’d prefer to just get it over with, but think the 2nd scenario of bounce near $1080-$1065 would not be low enough to be the bottom and would just be a bull trap. We’ll see how the winds blow in the markets next week.

            LPG
            Jul 20, 2015 20:42 AM

            +1 re: Shad’s comment at 2:01 am.

            LPG

            Jul 20, 2015 20:58 AM

            THANKS FOR THE CHART……….Gabriel……………..

    Jul 18, 2015 18:41 PM

    I will say that gold is ..way too over sold to go down next week. If it does happen? We have seen historically just how much oversold can oversold actually get. Gold is definitely, going up next week!

      Jul 19, 2015 19:25 AM

      DEAD CAT BOUNCE..

        Jul 19, 2015 19:35 PM

        Yes, but, a lion

        Jul 20, 2015 20:03 AM

        That is what would concern me about a bounce in PMs FFM……it would just be a bull trap.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:59 AM

        DEAD CAT BOUNCE TO A……….BINGO TIGER………..

          Jul 20, 2015 20:24 AM

          Here’s a bingo tiger….

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIsZAN7IOwM

            Jul 20, 2015 20:30 AM

            I thought that might be a BLADE RUNNER……….or Hairy takes a dive……….

            Jul 20, 2015 20:58 AM

            Blade Runner – Great movie and story. Hairy takes a dive is how the PM markets looked this morning 🙂

            Jul 20, 2015 20:07 AM

            good one……… 🙂

            Jul 20, 2015 20:08 AM

            the tigger ……got triggered according to bottom report…… 🙂

    Jul 18, 2015 18:52 PM

    If The Chinese are able to keep the crash from continuing on their stock markets, I really can’t see much happening on this site anymore, that would mean that they are in control and have taken out Mr. Market. The US and all the other developed economies will be watching and waiting to see if they made the smart move and have changed the dynamics of the way we view markets. DT

      Jul 18, 2015 18:55 PM

      It really means the end of technical and fundamental analysis and the cycle theories. DT

      Jul 18, 2015 18:41 PM

      Free markets……….oh come on. The world went full on retard along time ago in wealthy western countries, but the Chinese who everyone loves to use as a beacon of light has taken it a step further in their derangement to control everything while people cheer and applaud. They are simply taking their turn at the trough of central planning nirvana with their own version of plunder and control.

      Now in this new Orwellian world the Chinese communist sociopaths in charge get to decide if you live or die or go the prison for selling a stock. The depravity of the human mind knows no bounds as long as there’s a buck to be made in the trade.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:19 PM

    I think China and the Shanghai index are on sold ground now. They got their pullback. China looks good IMO.

      Jul 18, 2015 18:16 PM

      I think chinese stock market is no longer cheap and government may support it for now but may not do it in the future.

        CFS
        Jul 18, 2015 18:56 PM

        The average P/E for a Chinese stock is still about half that of a US stock, so if China is no longer cheap, what does that make the US.

          Jul 18, 2015 18:15 PM

          Maybe you mean Hong Kong or US listed. I don’t think they are that cheap in Shanghai and Shenzhen, especially Shenzhen which includes smaller cap private enterprises and the highly volatile venture stocks. However, US listed Chinese companies are not good quality except the super big ones. A lot of them are listed in US since they don’t qualify Hong Kong and China exchanges. They routinely falsify their books. Hong Kong listed stocks are cheap but people seem not able to bid them up. My impression is that the stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen (bigger ones) are good quality. I started trading Chinese ShangHai and Shenzhen stocks since 2009. None of my stock or any stock I know went bankrupt or went down like gold stocks here. They stayed low for a few years but they all followed the stock market up. The key problem is the dilution of Chinese stock market. Former premier Wen hated stock market and ordered to increase IPO and make re-issuance of stocks easy in order to drive people out of casino as he feels. So the market as a whole increased a lot in size even the shares went no where till last year. People call it bloodsucking and refer Chinese stock market as ATM for the insiders. They temporarily halted new IPO and cancelled all IPO already approved but I don’t know how long the government can hold.

            Jul 19, 2015 19:18 AM

            I remember shanghai index p/e is 16ish. However, China has 5% interest rate. S&p is about 22 but US rate is 0 and went through 3 QE.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:21 PM

    Solid ground meaning physical gold ( mind you )

    Jul 18, 2015 18:25 PM

    Oops not ” sold ” ground “solid!” ground.

    CFS
    Jul 18, 2015 18:04 PM

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/isis-set-up-stronghold-heart-6094785

    This will cause an end to free movement within the EU. BUT THE STABLE DOOR WILL BE CLOSED ONLY AFTER THE HORSES HAVE ALL BOLTED.

    Jul 18, 2015 18:32 PM

    I’m sure all you boyz will welcome this heart warming story…

    By doing God’s work Lloyd Blankfein is now a billionaire.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-billionaire-ceo-lloyd-blankfein-net-worth-2015-7

      Jul 19, 2015 19:17 AM

      Lucky Lloyd, forgot about the warning of the LOve of money. You bring nothing into this world, and you certainly will not take anything out. God’s work.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:31 AM

      They are God

    Jul 19, 2015 19:45 AM

    Ebolan – What the hell have I done wrong!!

    CFS
    Jul 19, 2015 19:05 AM

    Reply to Rev: God only knows!

    The key dates coming up are COMEX settlement dates given on:
    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_product_calendar_options.html?optionProductId=193#optionProductId=193
    So July 28 is going to be interesting.
    I still do not see how the price of silver can be driven up, before there is no metal available.
    I do notice that premiums on silver physical are increasing considerably. I personally have not been able to top up my physical holdings at $15.50, and have, in fact, only been offered September delivery dates for the quantity I am interested in, at a higher price, which I don’t want to pay.
    We are getting closer to default and cash settlement, but it is pure speculation for when that could happen.
    Are any of you out there worried that a global financial collapse might occur before the COMEX default on silver(which I think happens first) or gold?
    If the Global financial collapse happens prior to the COMEX default, can anyone state reasons for precious metals rise in price, as opposed to confiscation by central governments?

    Anyway I’m expecting silver price drops until July 28. (Hopefully not as much as recent ones)

      Jul 19, 2015 19:18 AM

      I believe if the cash settlement has no consequences to the shorts, they may drive the price as low as possible since they only have one chance, then people will likely go to spot only to avoid being paid cash at lower level. I remember John Embry was talking about this any years ago and it appears to be happening. I concur with it but did not realize the process could be so long and it started as this early stage. It is the length was is more emotional draining.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:50 PM

      CFS,
      What if”, the price goes up next week? Ugly..
      I think it’s going up…

    CFS
    Jul 19, 2015 19:15 AM

    The question about China’s announced gold reserves should not be “Is it a truthful number” Because it is not. But why did they choose a number like 1,658 tonnes and not a number like 3,000 tonnes?

    Bloomberg predicted over 3,000 tonnes.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:32 AM

      We know they have been hiding the number since 2009. It may not be in their interest to give real number or may be their tactics is to incrementally add pressure and not sound like challenging the west. China only stand firm on some thing truly benefit them, such as AIIB and south China sea. Otherwise China has been in a strategy of hiding strength which was adopted by Deng 30 years ago. Deng showed strength only once, which was demanding return of Hong Kong. He said PLA was moving into Hong Kong on July 1 1997 regardless and it is up to Great Britain to decide on whether it wants to save face.

        CFS
        Jul 19, 2015 19:54 PM

        My calculations indicate the Chinese were not even truthfull back in 2003, when they gave their gold reserves.
        It is extremely difficult to come up with an exact number, because the known imports divide between central bank and individual investor holdings. However, if , for example, one assumes the central bank hold all Chinese production since 2000 and 50% of imports since 2003, the number you get is around 28,000 tonnes. So 1,658 tonnes is ludicrous. So far off a real number that one has to assume China is trying to telegraph something.

          CFS
          Jul 19, 2015 19:58 PM

          I wonder if they are telegraphing RMBs into SDRs is assured?

      CFS
      Jul 19, 2015 19:42 AM

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_productioN

      Above is a list of Gold production in 2014, indication China produced 450 tonnes.
      In the 6 years between 2009 and today when China announced their reserves, the amount of gold bought by China, since it does not allow export of gold, clearly exceeds the amount in Reserves, even neglecting the thousand tonnes they already had. So they knew their announced would be known to be a lie. So why such an obvious lie?

        CFS
        Jul 19, 2015 19:53 AM

        I see my iPad struck again! The last letter of the above URL should be n not N
        I must have hit capitalization simultaneously with return key.

        Jul 19, 2015 19:13 PM

        Playing the game so the great White Shark does not insinuate a hidden cache of weapons of Mass Destruction in downtown Shanghai, comes to mind.

    CFS
    Jul 19, 2015 19:51 AM

    David Morgan earlier this week:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3utujQsIhKY

    Jul 19, 2015 19:22 PM

    So why isn’t gold ‘working’ at this moment in history?

    “We hypothesize that, having learned from the misadventures of the 1960s, the policy elites, well-versed in the practice of financial engineering and market manipulation, would have seen no need to dump stocks of government gold reserves onto the market, 1960s style, to keep the price in check.

    Instead, synthetic gold, sourced in pyramids of credit extended to bullion bankers by central banks with little or no claim on physical substance, have provided a more efficient, better-camouflaged form of intervention. COMEX synthetic gold and related over-the-counter derivatives are traded in macro strategies implemented by hedge funds, high-frequency trades, and commodity funds in pair trades with interest-rate, currencies, equity futures, or even more exotic offsets. The volumes traded are huge, and bear little resemblance to actual flows of physical metal.

    We suspect that shorting gold has come to seem like a riskless proposition as long as there is confidence in the Fed. Synthetic gold is the perfect substance for a carry trade: an easy borrow with very low carrying cost and little upside basis risk. Such a hypothesis, in our opinion, does much to explain the incongruity of a declining gold price while fundamentals for paper currency, and the U.S. dollar in particular, obviously deteriorate; while demand for physical gold has exceeded new mine supply for several years running; and while above-ground 400-ounce .995-gold bars located in London, New York, and other financial capitals (in cohabitation with speculative trading activity in paper markets) have steadily dwindled and disappeared into Asian financial centers reformulated as .9999 kilo bars.”

    MUST READ:
    http://tocqueville.com/insights/tocqueville-gold-strategy-2Q15-partII

      CFS
      Jul 19, 2015 19:53 PM

      John Hathaway has an axe to grind.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:55 PM

    1 putted 9 greens today! Personal best in putting.
    Hitting it a long way ( the wrong way ) sometimes doesn’t help the score..

    Jul 19, 2015 19:36 PM

    Gold down $28.00 in Asian trading. Looks like things are going to get very interesting.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:43 PM

      Meltdown …

    Jul 19, 2015 19:42 PM

    The PM stocks were warning us—as mentioned above, many of them were looking very “funky” and as stated, I couldn’t wrap my brain around the fact that that gold would move up this week when many of the gold stocks looked like they wanted to break down. Also, as mentioned above, we were awfully early in the intermediate cycle. This could blast right through the lower support line of the falling wedge and if it does, you can expect the bottom of many of the gold stocks will be in place earlier in the next 4 months. If we bottom around 1080 and get a bounce in August, then it’ll take longer later in the next 4 months for gold stocks to hit their bottoms.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:43 PM

    Gold went to $1,080.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:45 PM

    grab some popcorn …

    Jul 19, 2015 19:47 PM

    (((((((((((((((( HAHAHAHAHA GOLD DOWN $50.00 IN SECONDS, HAHAHAHA )))))))))))))))))))
    ……..and for what reason, LIKE I SAID BEFORE, THIS IS THEIR LAST HURRAH!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:47 PM

    Gold is absolutely going to the $900 dollar range now. This will be a waterfall event that even I didn’t expect to happen so fast. The algos are going ballistic on the sell side and the the banks are going to help facilitate the sell-off.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:47 PM

    HOLY COW! STRAIT DOWN LIKE A CIVILIAN AIRLINER HIT BY A RUSSIAN SAM! WOW! GLAD MY BULL HEDGE WAS ONLY ABOUT $500! I’M GONNA EAT SOME POO ON THIS ONE TOMORROW! WISH I WOULD HAVE HELD MY JDST LONGER. MADE 16%. PROBABLY COULD HAVE DOUBLE THAT!

      Jul 19, 2015 19:54 PM

      NO, NOT A RUSSIAN SAM, BUT AN AMERICAN SAM!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:48 PM

    THEY ARE TOTALLY OUT OF METAL AT THIS POINT……………and CHINA knows it!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:51 PM

    THINGS ARE GOING TO GET REAL INTERESTING REAL SOON IN THE PHYSICAL MARKET!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:54 PM

    Can’t wait to see what pre-market looks like at 7am tomorrow. I buy low and sell high but in times like this I will buy high and sell higher. Might take up a position tomorrow on JDST if it does not open above $15. I don’t play pre-market because I can’t put a stop in. So why are “They” running it down? So they can run it up when the conventionals crash?

      Jul 19, 2015 19:06 PM

      SMART MAN…………you ain’t seen nothing yet!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:55 PM

    I would hope for the PM stocks to sell off big time tomorrow morning right along with gold. It would create some real good buys on some of them. If we have a big sell off and if the conventional markets start to sell off as well, the Fed will have to smell deflationary depression in the air and you know what that means.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:03 PM

      Doc, a deflationary depression is baked into the cake. There’s going be a lot of crow eaten around here before this is over.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:01 PM

    Miners of all sizes and shapes will now clearly start entering a full-on bankruptcy phase will gold/silver prices continuing to deflate.

    Nothing outside of divine intervention can stop what lies dead ahead.

    Expect out of the blue news releases announcing some of the giants in the sector have agreed to merge in a frantic M&A move to stay solvent and operational.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:12 PM

      Vortex, all I know is that there will be opportunities that will be amazing in the future. It will be extremely interesting to see how gold opens in the morning and how the miners react if we get a large sell off. It will ultimately take nerves of steel to purchase some of these stocks.

        Jul 19, 2015 19:14 PM

        Yes Doc, I’ve been saying that for months. As a matter of fact I don’t have enough money to buy all of the phyz and miners that I want.

        After the smoke clears of course.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:07 AM

        Good thoughts Doc. I just replied to an earlier post up above and I’m planning for the same thing, but want to see how the week opens up.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:10 PM

    Gold just hit $1086 😮

    Jul 19, 2015 19:15 PM

    Wow, just,, wow

    Jay
    Jul 19, 2015 19:17 PM

    Hi,

    I cannot fathom that you guys, including great guests and smart guys like Chris are taking the Communist Chinese at their word that the have 1,600 tons of gold.

    Governments tend to lie and communist governments must lie. So, why in the world would you believe their numbers about gold holdings?

    They are controlling the truth about their true holdings (which are much higher) until it is in their interest to divulge it.

    Why say they have 5,000 tons or more now? There’s no upside in it. Frankly, I don’t think they care that much about the SDR inclusion anymore. With the Asian Development Bank (forget the formal name) they are moving in a different direction from the IMF. They may play nice and talk nice, but they are playing a different game.

    My understanding is that the Chinese mine around 400 tons of gold a year and that all of it goes to the government/ central bank. In the time since they last reported that’s at least 1,200 tons of gold, which would have put them over 2,000 tons on just domestic production alone. An that’s ignoring all the gold imported, some of which, perhaps a lot, must go to the central bank/ government.

    These numbers, like most of the numbers from the US gov’t, are deliberately deceptive.

    Of course just because they are fake doesn’t meant that the market reaction isn’t real, but please guys don’t be sucked in by the simplistic, lazy mainstream “analysis” that these numbers are true.

    This is not conspiracy and space alien stuff as Chris sometimes derisively calls those of us who believe in gold manipulation.

    I respect him and those characterizations are beneath him in my opinion…I agree there are lots of charlatans among the gold panic “gurus”, but he shouldn’t dismiss all intelligent analysis in that area as being essentially by kooks. It makes him look petty and uninformed IMO. Are Eric Sprott, James Turk and others kooks?

    C’mon guys, you are too smart to turn your brains off on stuff like this. Respectfully, if I want that lazy viewpoint/ analysis, I can go to CNBC.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:19 PM

      Jay, I believe most of the folks on the site don’t believe the Chinese numbers for gold. I certainly don’t. It could be that their so called central bank only has that amount while the regional big banks have a lot as well.

        Jay
        Jul 19, 2015 19:23 PM

        Good point Doc. I agree. I just think we need to be thoughtful about stuff like this, especially in the face of such overwhelming events/ conditions that counter the reports we’re seeing.

        Thanks for the insights.

          Jul 19, 2015 19:34 PM

          Jay, all I know is most people are going to get awful negative on the resource sector and the PMs going forward. I’ve lived long enough where I’ve seen this sort of situation in the past even though the present is like nothing I’ve seen as far as the indebtedness of the globe is concerned. Eventually, volatility will pick up and the narrative will change. When that happens, confidence will be compromised and the PMs will have their day. We’ll be able to thank Mr. Market for the tremendous opportunity he’ll afford us in some of these stocks.

      LFP
      Jul 19, 2015 19:28 PM

      As I mentioned [quite some time ago to 1 of he 2 ”academics” on this site… [and I’l reiterate this now – AGAIN -! China has over 20,000 metric tons, but should that number be somewhat over-estimated, I will say that the the Sino-ussian [excluding India,btw] easily come in @ more than 20,000 metric tons.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:33 PM

      +1 Jay. I also do not believe the Chinese numbers or governments in general. The vast majority of the population mocks so-called conspiracy theorists for just one reason —ignorance. They should be ignored in my opinion.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:09 AM

        good one Matthew…………ignorance……………love it………….j

      Jul 19, 2015 19:51 PM

      NO ONE BLIEVES THEM JAY…………….. that’s just good strategy for now on their part…………STAY TUNED FOR LATER THIS YEAR!

      Jul 20, 2015 20:53 AM

      Well said………..JAY…………….

    Jul 19, 2015 19:32 PM

    Gold just had its biggest flash crash in nearly two years, as a targeted stop hunt launched by the dumping of $2.7 billion notional in product, accelerates the capitulation of the momentum buyers (and in this case sellers) pushing gold to a level not seen almost since 2009.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-19/gold-precious-metals-flash-crash-following-27-billion-notional-dump

      Jay
      Jul 19, 2015 19:38 PM

      Hopefully they’ll get it down to 100 bucks an ounce 🙂 for a couple of weeks so I can sell all my furniture, dig the change out of the couch and donate some plasma for a last “big” purchase before the rocket launch (even if it’s a slow rocket 😉

    LFP
    Jul 19, 2015 19:33 PM

    CORRECTION –
    »
    As I mentioned [quite some time ago, to 1 of the 2 ”academics” on this site] … I’ll reiterate this now – AGAIN -! ]
    China has over 20,000 metric tons, but should that number be **somewhat** over-estimated, I say that the the Sino-Russian ”stash” [excluding India,btw] will easily come in @ more than 20,000 metric tons.

    —LFP

    Jul 19, 2015 19:37 PM

    Somebody just dumped some tonnage on the market.. Wonder who that might be?? Lol
    Don’t squint your eyes while eating Chinese food! Lol
    Don’t beat on JR. just because you’re in the mood.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:54 PM

    9:28 pm EST…..one minute bar $48.20. Was that the 112.5 tonnes of Greek gold?
    I bet the protective stops were filled near the bottom of the bar.
    Are there futures are margin requirements?

    Jul 19, 2015 19:57 PM

    NONE OF THIS MATTERS RIGHT NOW ……………..FOR THEY ARE OUT OF GOLD AND SOON SILVER!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:59 PM

    9.29 pm, 9.29 pm, 9,29 pm
    on, on, on margin requirements.

    Jay
    Jul 19, 2015 19:04 PM

    Rye Patch/ CDE question. I’m squeamish about CDE and sold all my shares (from their acquisition of 50% of PZG).

    They just seem to have way too much debt (D/E way over 60% i believe) and seem to keep adding more.

    What happens to the revenue stream Rye Patch gets if CDE goes bankrupt? Is there enough there that it could be quickly taken up by another firm that would buy those rights or would Rye Patch lose it all?

    Not saying CDE will go bk, but it smells more and more like Allied Nevada to me.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:12 PM

      Excellent point, Jay; and one of the reasons I asked them about the length of their contract with CDE. If that goes away, they’re just another PM exploration company.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:11 PM

    This is huge and sudden.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:15 PM

    I’ve been thinking about talking to Cory and seeing if we could develop some of the more important economic variables for PM stocks and then compare them to the variables as to soundness of the companies. As a group we could vote on each level of company capitalization to see which companies will be able to withstand the coming carnage.

      Jay
      Jul 19, 2015 19:31 PM

      Excellent idea Doc.

      In addition to the financial data, which is readily available, maybe there is an opportunity to add some parameters that are “crowdsourced” from within the community. For example, if someone sees an article about a company wrt to management changes, a political risk issue, etc. they could post to that company’s “profile” with a rating of it’s positive/ negative impact.

      Just some late night musing, but there is a lot of intelligence and information power within this community so trying to think how to harness it in a focused way (of course this could be applied to any class of stocks, not jut PM ones)

      Jul 20, 2015 20:17 AM

      Doc – I really like this idea, and feel an analysis of companies balance sheets (revenues, free cash flow, debt burden, improving or declining trends in their economics), mineral assets and proven resources, cash reserves versus cash burn rate, management prior success, Joint Venture or Key investments in Smaller companies by the Majors or Mid-tiers, geo-political risks, permitting road blocks, exploration upside, potential deal killers, share structure, volume & liquidity, etc… would all be factors to consider.

      We’d have to decide how important a particular factor was and give it a weighting, and then give each company a report card, score them on each criteria, and then multiply that by its importance or “weighting” and then generate a composite score.

      Jul 20, 2015 20:45 AM

      Great Idea Doc!

        Jul 20, 2015 20:32 AM

        So no more throwing darts?

    Jul 19, 2015 19:16 PM

    It’s the reality of waiting for the bottom to be ” Done “

    Jul 19, 2015 19:17 PM

    Well; time to hit the sack and look forward to the morning PM spot prices.

    Jul 19, 2015 19:32 PM

    DOC, are you tired…………I will be up all night, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:35 PM

    LOL………..IF I WERE THE WEST………….I WOULD START BUYING GOLD NOW TO FILL UP FT. KNOX LOL,LOL,LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IDIOTS !!!!!!!!!!!

    LFP
    Jul 19, 2015 19:37 PM

    OK – Off Topic: Pan-American Games – Final Medals count as of NOW –

    Standings as of Sun., 11:11 PM ET, Jul/19/2015
    Data Source: http://results.toronto2015.org/IRS/en/general/medal-count.htm

    Rank Country Gold Silver Bronze Total

    1 UStates 59 53 48 160
    2 Canada 54 48 40 142
    3 Brazil 30 28 41 99
    4 Colombia 24 8 22 54
    [… The rest are wanna-be’s … ]

    As RICHARD-DOC stated directly above: ”…time to hit the sack …”

    ‘Nite All
    —LFP

    Jul 19, 2015 19:44 PM

    Mark,
    Why would we do that? It would be the smart thing to do.
    But hey, we could contest the nuclear agreement and start another war….
    Yuep, I D I O T S !….!

    The people contesting the nuke agreement are hell bent on war, and are the ones making profit from war. ” pay close attention to who they are “

    Jul 19, 2015 19:53 PM

    The people in congress against the nuclear deal with Iran, are the people that are against the American people. It’s really that simple !
    They are exposing them selves on this vote! Pay close attention to who they are !

    Jul 19, 2015 19:58 PM

    They are the ” military industrial complex ”
    They don’t want to loose, ” the money “!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:09 PM

    The money made off of WAR!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:10 PM

    At the expense of the American youth,! ? !

    Jul 19, 2015 19:23 PM

    THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ANY MORE!

    Jul 19, 2015 19:35 PM

    What??

    Jul 19, 2015 19:09 PM

    Oh man..this bounce on gold is gonna be a duzy!
    Good luck, stay close to the screen.

      Jul 20, 2015 20:16 AM

      Maybe not if this is really the final capitulation stage, Chartster.

      Even though we are already in the 7th or 8th day of declines there will be plenty of sales triggered due to what just happened. Morning should bring a miners bloodbath. Not that a bounce won’t be worthy to buy but you have to wonder if public negativity on the sector can possibly get any worse.

      Just as an aside, does anyone here think this mornings action would have been different had the Chinese announcement of last week had shown them to be holding six or eight thousand tonnes?

      Does anyone suspect that the seller who dumped this morning was actually from Asia? And last, does it seem curious that the rout began in Asia the Monday morning following that dismal report on gold holdings from the peoples bank?

      Without going to too much effort to answer my own question I would assert that an acknowledgement of a significant hoard of precious metals in China would have offered considerable support to the metals markets right now and would have aborted the chances of this current large move down.

      In other words, the Chinese gold announcement was perhaps strategically timed and has played directly into further sinking the metals market at a key technical timing point. Meanwhile, we also know that China and its agencies have been busy acquiring resources around the world.

      I am talking the mines themselves here, not just the above ground stock of metals.

      What is going to happen next is that some of the medium and large players in the metals sector who are most levered and heavily indebted will find themselves as takeover targets in the coming months. They can only sustain losses for so long before they cry uncle.

      And I think the buyer who is coming to the rescue will not be just New York vulture money and hedge funds this time. We often discuss how the wealth transfer takes place but rarely just how it comes into being. Well this is a perfect example of how an industry that was once stressed is about to enter the critical care ward.

      Plenty of the miners are bleeding red ink and won’t survive without a transfusion.

      Capitulation brings on tremendous opportunities for those intent on owning the ounces in the ground. This also has inherent geopolitical consequences and risks too. Especially if the buyer is not merely the usual funds or private investors but rather a state entity or even the state itself.

      And we are not just talking gold here.

      The same idea applies equally, perhaps even more importantly, to copper, zinc, oil, gas, iron, rare earths etc, etc. I kind of suspect we are all about to get a new education in the meaning of “weak hands to strong” as one of the most serious and long term price declines in the history of the commodities markets reveal how nations can strategically maneuver to take majority control of good mine and resource assets across the globe.

      And they will do it for pennies on the dollar even as they cleverly make press releases that are intended to depress prices. Not of the commodity itself, but of the mines that actually dig the stuff out of the ground. Gold for example is suffering as we all know….but the miners themselves are being murdered.

      And frankly, which would you rather own, a liter of milk or the cow that actually produces the stuff?

      Jul 20, 2015 20:02 AM

      And here is your buy signal for the resumption of the Chinese equity bull market. From Bloomberg, China Securities Finance Corp will now be permitted to engage directly in liquidy operations regarding the stock market including buying shares and they have the equivalent of half a trillion USD to do it with.

      Told you guys this was not over.

      In fact on a very long term chart it is clear(to me anyway) this “crash” is merely just a fourth wave down Elliot move that will precede the final wave up. It is also my contention that the termination of the last leg should exceed the old highs by a good margin on the Shanghai but when that finally ends it will bring the overdue corrections in US markets along in its wake.

      Personally, I believe that Chinese stock markets are about to take off like a rocket again.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:04 AM

        Oops sorry. Here is the link I did not append:

        China Unleashes $483 Billion to Stem the Market Rout
        http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-17/chinese-bazooka-xi-readies-483-billion-to-end-stock-selloff

        Jul 20, 2015 20:22 AM

        That will be interesting to see if this was just the 4th leg down, and if there will be the final 5th wave up surpassing old highs on the Shanghai exchange.

          Jul 20, 2015 20:16 AM

          Of course, the end of the 5th wave parabolic Chinese rocket ride lies a 1929 style event for Chinese stock markets Shad. It is what will trigger a global recession and bring a hard correction to markets across the world. That’s my theory anyway. So none of this is good news. Its actually really, really bad news. And all those Peasants plowing their life savings into stocks are just going to be fodder for the cannon. I don’t understand people who keep insisting that the Chinese leadership is trying to stabilize that market for the good of the people and for social stability. That makes no sense when closer to the truth is that they have strongly encouraged speculation because it is a way to fleece the ill informed and inexperienced. This is just another kind of wealth transfer. During this last crash the media seized on the size of the losses that were wiped off the market. What they never talk about is where that wealth actually went. I mean, we are pretty sure that the novice shoe shine boys and cabbies in Shanghai were the bag holders as the markets went South and the real traders (the Elite within China including the government and insiders) saw spectacular gains. What I am saying is somebody won big even as most saw their investment nut smashed. So it is far more interesting to me who actually profited during the crash, not who lost money. Shoot, we know who lost money already. That was Chan Public and his Grandmother who had the rules changed on them at the 11th hour and could not even sell due to suspensions. The next round will wipe out the rest and the usual wealth transfer will have become a reality as the life savings of one group becomes the fortune of those better informed and more connected.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:20 AM

            Isn’t it always this way? We DO know how this works. If anyone here doesn’t they had best close their accounts and just hold cash until the carnage is over because this time the big boys are going to scoop a big chunk of most peoples pension plans. Same thing here as it is over there. The oldest game in the book is to catch the majority on the wrong side of the market when they are most bullish and least prepared.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:33 AM

            Very good point about the average retail investor in China jumping in and putting their lifetime savings into the Chinese market, only to get fleeced. I agree that China will not really be able to stabilize their markets in the broader scheme of things, but they have more national ability to create new mandates and manipulate things than most nations…..but I don’t believe for a minute that it’s intention is for the good of the people. Lastly, yes, I’d be very curious to see who made out like bandits during this flash crash in their markets……that would indicate connections to the people forcing the market’s hand.

            Good thoughts.

      Jul 20, 2015 20:11 AM

      On the other hand, Chartster, if you look at the daily gold chart you can see its actually made a waterfall decline into a spike low. What we don’t yet know is if there will be a continuation of the declines today and tomorrow but it should be scaring the hell out of some longs who may be thinking better to bail out now than wait for the next leg down. I mean, a lot of people (perhaps even the majority who follow gold closely) were betting that 1200 would not really break this much…that the double bottom would hold as a triple bottom approached too. They will all be rethinking their bullishness now that a breakdown has so clearly occurred. Armstrong calls this the panic stage and it could see significant further declines as capitulation ensues.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:16 AM

        But if you want my actual opinion (as if I have not already given it!) I think we get a snap-back rally as high as 1250.

          Jul 20, 2015 20:40 AM

          Interesting thoughts A Listener.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:38 AM

        And I also think the dollar and Euro are about to reverse before the buck hits .99 whereas the Euro will begin to move higher again as early as tomorrow heading back towards 1.10

    Jul 19, 2015 19:31 PM

    ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■URGENT MESSAGE ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■

    This crisis is much worse than I have been warning about
    for many months. The severity of the coming cataclysmic
    events has not changed. The metals will not work as they
    did in past as a said many times as a hedge to this complete
    financial collapse that takes hold.

    THIS IS A ..NEW PARADIGM !!! Billionaires/ Millionaires
    better get it !! Pay attention. These are some of the most
    stupid complacent people alive.

    Everyone need to understand this is an era like the dark ages.

    ONLY MUCH WORSE…go back and study history. Mankind has
    not changed, only this time we will destroy ourselves like many
    civilizations did over thousands of years.

    WHAT’S NEXT ??? In the months ahead everything will be breaking
    down and within 12 months no one is going to believe the condition
    of America and the world. Total chaos and civil war that turns very
    violent. However, thats only the beginning. America could end up
    burning and I mean literally. The risk is extremely high in the short
    and long term over 12 months. All Western Nations are in high peril
    as with the whole world. If you are reading this, it applies to everyone.

    HERE’S THE BOTTOMLINE ..FOLKS !!! Pay attention. Not coming
    back here to say it again because posting here is not my favorite
    pass time and not only that time is short. I’m also spending my
    time with eternal things honoring God. Okay, fair enough. Which
    brings me to my URGENT MESSAGE !!!

    We true believers in the Holy God of the bible better be fully ready
    and living for Jesus Christ. Rejecting this world and the things of
    this world. Repenting and refraining from all temptations and sin.

    Because if we true believers are not squeaky clean the odds are
    high we will not be delivered from the destruction that’s coming
    to this world.

    DO NOT BE DECEIVED !!! We will not enter in The Lords House
    unless we are squeaky clean most likely. Few will be delivered
    as in the days of Noah and Lot.

    Give your life to Jesus Christ and don’t play games. Walk in his
    ways otherwise take high risks in not being delivered.

    You can’t serve money and God too. Reason I quit posting and
    this new message hopefully wakes believers up. Or those who
    are sitting on the fence who will give their life to Jesus before
    the door closes.

    ●●●●●JUDGMENT IS HERE ….The foundations of the world was
    based on marriage and raising a family. God does not recognize
    same sex marriage.

    The world is now out of control and God must destroy this horrible
    world we live in. The end is near folks.

    Please don’t message me with your ignorant excuses why it’s not
    true. Your arrogance and rejection against God or your false
    doctrines of demons from so called Christians.

    DON’T MAKE ME SICK. Its you…., that reject the truth and use
    false doctrines the reason why this world is going to total
    destruction soon. The mockers and the scoffers. The church
    and so called Christians who refuse to honor the true Word
    Of God for the most part in deliberate acts. If some of it is
    no good, than all of it wouldn’t be any good. However, all of
    it is good and true.

    God Bless everyone and God please open their eyes to the
    truth. Take your eyes off this world and the things of this
    world.

    Please, no messages. Get right with our Lord God before its
    too late. Thank you and kindly asking those who reject the
    truth don’t message me with your ignorance and arrogance.

    Because, if you continue in this behavior its grotesque and
    It will bring you eternal damnation for all of eternity. Its
    sickening.

    Seek the true and living God of the holy bible before its too
    late. Time is running out.

      Jul 19, 2015 19:59 PM

      You’ve been watching ‘The Walking Dead’ again haven’t you?

      There’s a lot to be said for a nice soothing cup of tea and a jammy dodger.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:14 AM

        Its the God rejecting world, people like you Bob
        thats why the road is paved to hell now.

        Only a fool in his heart believes there’s no God.

        The non believers and the false believes have
        brought the world to total destruction now.

        You fail to change, you will have all of eternity
        in hell to think about why you were so foolish.

          Jul 20, 2015 20:20 AM

          False believers….

          Who are much worse than those that
          don’t believe at all.

          It all sickens me Bob because you want
          to remain blind to the truth.

          Mostly its arrogance. Much foolishness as well.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:18 AM

        And Valium.

          Jul 20, 2015 20:24 AM

          A Listener….you are proof the world
          is on the road to hell soon.

          You should be proud you helped bring
          this world to total destruction.

          Enjoy it.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:56 AM

            Never mind, I will take the valium myself.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:08 AM

            Another reason why the world will be
            destroyed. Turning to mind altering
            Substances.

            Makes people even more blind than
            they are. What a tragedy and foolish
            hearts.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:15 AM

            Stop it man, I am already to wash them down with a beer. You are driving me to drinking.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:37 AM

            I feel dizzy. The Valium is kicking in. It doesn’t feel like Armageddon though. Maybe the rapture……

    Jul 20, 2015 20:42 AM

    Folks, the latter comments are funny and sad in equal measure. Funny because a sense of humour is a sense of proportion, or because life’s too serious to take it seriously. Hell’s teeth, some of the folk in Greece are still managing to smile.
    Sad because although HH is always over the top about hell and damnation, he is saying that without a reverence for a Creator and the order He gave humankind through such as the Ten Commandments we all end up screwed, with lies, anarchy, decadence and corruption running riot on the mega scale now seen pretty much EVERYWHERE.
    These are bloody and terrifying times we’re about to face: Completely unprecedented from anything known before. However deep down I have an unfailing faith in most of humanity’s unfailing decency and goodness, and not one of us HH should prescribe who’s going to heaven and who to hell.
    So judge NOT for Christ’s sake, and dare to raise a glass to our survival. Best, A

      Jul 20, 2015 20:10 AM

      Andrew, I kindly asked you not comment if you were going
      to be ignorant, arrogant and those who use doctrines of
      demons to dispute Gods Word.

      This is exactly why the world is going into complete destruction.

      People that continue to reject God and those that use false teachings
      to compromise Gods Word. One sin that drives a stake into Gods heart
      is the abomination of same sex relationships ..now marriage.

      The whole world has decided on this atrocity especially in The Western
      World.

      Everything I commented on in my post was correct.

      Please Andrew, stop turning my stomach over. Its not funny but
      extremely serious. Your comments Andrew are disgusting and
      very grotesque. This world is in trouble because of comments
      such as yours and its absolutely sickening.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:11 AM

        Think you misread me HH., A

          Jul 20, 2015 20:50 AM

          Sorry Andrew, I never misread your post. You said the following.

          not one of us HH should prescribe who’s going to heaven and who to hell.
          So judge NOT for Christ’s sake, and dare to raise a glass to our survival. Best, A

          Andrew, I’m just stating what the bible teaches. Go read my original post on
          the matter. It’s a message for so called Christians maybe like myself included
          that we will not be delivered from the coming destruction if we are not living
          for Jesus and following in his ways. My message is …few will be delivered and
          the road is narrow like the bible says. So called Christians need to be aware.
          The churches will not tell you much and only to tell so called believers what
          they want to hear to collect donations. This is a very narrow road. Repenting
          is not a license to sin. Few will be delivered in the day of destruction.

          This is a major problem in the Christian community. Most don’t believe in
          much of anything never mind being delivered. Once saved, always saved
          is a lie. When we give our life to Christ we are reborn. All things made new
          and to go and not sin. We all need to wake up to this as I have been doing.
          Anyway, all of it will be denied in most cases. This is why the end is near.
          Its mocking and scoffing of anything that has to do with our Lord God.
          Now same sex marriage is the final nail in the worlds coffin. God will
          destroy it and its coming very soon before more are infected by this very
          sick world of abominations. That too, will be denied by even so called
          Christians. The road is paved to hell.

          Then you have rapid lawlessness. Don’t expect the metals to help. That
          too, will be flushed and they all ready have plans to do just that.

          Its all unfolding as I have been warning.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:01 AM

            BTW…people who believe they are Christians I know
            are so deluded by their own false beliefs its absolutely
            Pathetic. The reason people end up in hell is for lack
            of knowledge and refusing the truth.

            And of coarse, anything I say will be denied. We are
            living in the final days before major catastrophic
            destruction.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:15 AM

            The reason that people end up in hell HH is because they do not know themselves. Fear mongering will never ever prevail. Nor will the judging of others. How often I’ve come across people such as yourself who are riddled with fear. Yes, they speak a measure of truth, but their own lives are a mess because inwardly they are very afraid.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:36 AM

            Andrew, you are so wrong. Its not fear mongering.

            God has told us whats coming but you scoff and
            mock the Word Of God.

            Christ Jesus is the way to the Kingdom Of God and
            following in his ways. Seeking eternal things.

            Proves, since you never mention Jesus name is the
            first sign of a false believer and teacher.

            Jesus is the way and the light. Not ourselves. We are
            to deny ourselves and live for not the world nor the
            things of this world but Christ Jesus.

            The reason why the road to hell is paved is because
            of false beliefs, twisting the Word Of God and total
            rejection. Its a epidemic and its all coming to a very
            bitter end.

            Thanks to false believers who spread lies like you
            Andrew.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:42 AM

            You’re becoming a bad man HH. Many will prophecy in His Name and He will not know them. Therefore TAKE HEED.
            Jesus is Lord.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:58 AM

            You’re right Andrew. However, I’m reading the
            holy scriptures and the news matches up with
            prophecy in the bible perfectly. Only those that
            wish to remain blind because they favor the world
            will deny it.

            Andrew, if Jesus is Lord why aren’t you a role
            model seeking The Kingdom Of God.

            All I see you do is accuse and the things of
            this world and the world seem to be priority.

            Your gold is cursed Andrew. Its not going to
            deliver you like you think.

            It’s already a foregone conclusion the metals
            will be a bad omen in these last days just as
            the bible says.

            Oh, but you ignore that too. Like everything else.

            Wishing, hoping in false promise. Your already
            Swimming in red ink. Only its going to get much
            worse.

            In your book everyone is bad unless they support
            your cult. Those cults are destroying you Andrew.

            Jul 20, 2015 20:04 AM

            BTW…many will say Jesus is Lord and The Lord
            will say I did not know you.

            Your living for the world Andrew. You can’t live
            for the world and say you know The Lord.

            You are listening to your father satan.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:37 AM

            No, I am not listening to Satan. A satan btw means an accuser and you’re doing way too much of that.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:13 AM

            You twist everything Andrew. You accuse me of representing
            the truth in Gods Word and act like its misrepresentation . You
            mock and scoff.

            This is why this world is now on the path to great total destruction
            and hell.

            Are you seeking The Kingdom Of God. Do you pick up your cross
            and follow Jesus daily. Refusing all the temptations of this world.

            I don’t post here any longer. I don’t want friendship with the world.
            People like that are a dime a dozen. Believers need to strengthen
            each other with eternal things. This world is going to soon pass
            away. Jesus words will never pass away and his teachings.

            Give your life to Jesus before its too late. This world Andrew is in
            serious trouble and great sorrows start this year. Within 15 months
            America will not exist. Start living for eternal things and give it up.

            Hope John is stable has been in my prayers almost everyday. He
            too needs to live for Jesus as this world is operating on fumes.

            God Bless and please give your life and surrender to Lord Jesus.

            Time is short. Drink from eternal waters and never thirst again.

            Our inheritance in The Kingdom Of God is worth more than all
            the riches of this world.

            This is a evil garbage dump and its all going to be destroyed.

            PLEASE !!! Give it up. This dump is not worth it.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:50 AM

            Give it up HH and please keep to your word so that you won’t post anymore on this site. Jesus is the Lord and Saviour of my soul, so don’t make any further hideous accusations.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:51 AM

            Its you Andrew that twists everything and critical of
            The books of Revelation where you said John The
            Baptist was crazy or insane many months ago. You
            also discredited Ezekiel as not being valid. Maybe a
            year or so ago.

            Is Jesus The Lord of your life ? I’m happy to hear that.

            You would never know it though. I think the world is
            the lord of your life. That’s your business whatever
            you want to do but stop sickening me.

            Just come out of the closet. A double minded man
            is unstable in all his ways. Let your yea be a yea and
            your nay be a nay. Better to be cold than luke warm
            mixed up and tipping your hand towards the world.

            BTW….My posts will continue until I’m ready to stop.

            I will post when I want and do what’s necessary to
            achieve my point and deliver the message.

            You Andrew will have no say so in it. The world is
            going to hell because of false doctrines and rejecting
            parts of the bible.

            This is why judgment is going to be delivered to the
            whole world in a catastrophe.

            ITS GOING TO BURN .ANDREW….you hear me …

            You can’t be leading society to gay lifestyles influencing
            children in this abomination where they have high risk
            of eternal damnation for eternity.

            The foundations of the world was based on marriage and
            family… YOU UNDERSTAND ANDREW ..do you !!!!!!!

            You better start because God does not recognize same sex
            marriage.

            GET THAT THROUGH YOUR HEAD…once and for all.

            As in the days of Lot and Noah ..God literally destroyed
            it all. We are here and worse, even same sex marriage
            wasn’t legal in their day. We have gone past the point
            of no return.

            God had no choice but to destroy it. Why ??? Use your
            head Andrew all flesh will go to perversion and all will
            be damned to hell.

            Andrew..STOP…read the bible and learn Gods ways.

            These sins can’t continue.

            STOP…STOP…STOP…open your eyes to the truth.

            STOP PLAYING GAMES…ANDREW.

            Don’t sicken me anymore than you already have.

            PLEASE !!!!!

            Gold is cursed because we are living in the last days.

            Within a few years it will be worthless. The price is
            going to collapse in the meantime.

            Stop listening to KWN..too. WAKE UP MAN !!!!

            Jul 21, 2015 21:04 AM

            Time to quit the site HH. You’ve burnt yourself to a cinder.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:15 AM

            And the road is now paved to hell Andrew.

            Thanks to false witnesses who spread lies.

            BTW….just because I’m not part of your cult
            chasing after the world doesn’t mean you
            are the only one on this site that thinks like
            you.

            Not everyone thinks like you Andrew. Cutting
            up Gods Word to further your world agenda
            to enrich yourself.

            Good luck with the apostasy and the world
            of perversion that is only going to get worse.

            God will see to it that its all destroyed soon.

            You better STOP..your nonsense. Open your
            eyes to the truth. JUST DO IT !!!!!

            Judgment is here. Turn off your KWN.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:23 AM

            WAKE UP..ANDREW..OUT OF YOUR COMA !!!!!!

            For pete sake….why are you doing this ???

            You are spiritually blind ….unbelievable !!!!

            This road is so paved to hell its blatantly obvious.

            CRYING OUT LOAD….ANDREW….wake up out of your stuper !!!!

            Jul 21, 2015 21:12 PM

            HH you need help pure and simple. For you are RULED by fear and unresolved guilts rather than by a living faith, as are so many so-called born-agains. I shall pray for you. But this is to conclude all further discussions from my end., A

            Jul 21, 2015 21:18 PM

            Andrew, does the word ..sodomite have any meaning
            to you. Those especially in The Western World who are
            the great massive majority are silent regarding the
            abominations against God.

            Because going along with it and not speaking out
            you are as guilty as those that support this evil.

            Makes you a ..sodomite. And almost everyone that
            continues to be silent.

            You are so spiritually blind and no wonder you only
            like friendship with the world.

            YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

            Everything is going to burn soon. God will see to it.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:26 PM

            Don’t bother. Your prayers are not heard.

            Defiling The Word Of God. Removing anything
            that does not agree with your cult.

            Don’t fool yourself having a relationship with the
            world, you do not have God.

            Jul 21, 2015 21:24 PM

            THE GAME IS OVER..ANDREW…this applies to all of us.

            You see cracks in the dam and people still ignore it.

            Signs precisely as the bible predicted.

            Now, the world goes into total destruction and few will
            be delivered because they rejected the truth.

            Just as all my commentary stated and its going to be
            difficult to be delivered.

            Its a narrow road and few will inherit The Kingdom Of God.

            Having friendship with this world, then you are an enemy of
            God.

            REMEMBER THAT….however, that too will be denied by most.

            Very tragic and unfortunate.

    Jul 20, 2015 20:39 AM

    GOOD MORNING HH………
    GLAD TO SEE YOU BACK…….
    Let me say your message is a lot more smoothing……THAN ANYTHING COMING OUT OF WASHINGTON DC………………………………………..JMHO

      Jul 20, 2015 20:35 AM

      isn’t that the truth…… : – )

    Jul 20, 2015 20:03 AM

    Some good news……….. Understand they have PICTURES OF THE QUEEN, giving a HAIL HITLER in her earlier years…….should be interesting on what the royals will have to say about that one.

      Jul 20, 2015 20:14 AM

      I would imagine Prince Phil is spitting bullets as only he knows how! Although I have no time for The Sun I had to laugh over their defence of offering the nation a glimpse of our social history!

      Jul 20, 2015 20:30 AM

      She was a child then, Frank. I think we all did silly things as children that would be regrettable later if it had all been recorded. Especially in 20/20 hindsight with a perspective of just how satanic Hitler really was.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:57 AM

        Good point A listener………she must be as big of a dumb arce , as the rest of us……. 🙂

    Jul 20, 2015 20:47 AM

    Each new low in the Japanese yen has come just before each low in gold:
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24Xjy

      Jul 20, 2015 20:32 AM

      So, basicly you are saying that everyone should wait for the low in the yen which hasn’t happened.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:50 AM

        If japan head to high/hyper inflation, there might not be a bottom. Then gold go to 0?

    Jul 20, 2015 20:27 AM

    IT’S ALL BULL……………..ALL OF IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Jul 20, 2015 20:34 AM

    I thought I might sell some silver today…………so, I can say I sold at the bottom….. 🙂

      Jul 20, 2015 20:39 AM

      Ha! You’re a contrarian’s contrarian Frank….Das Boot.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:40 AM

        I guess they can just talk about it without doing anything. We have been in zero rate since the end of 2008.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:59 AM

        good one ……..I like that one Shad………. 🙂 contrarian’s contrarian…..CCF…

      Jul 20, 2015 20:39 AM

      Ha Ha. Funny guy Frank! Your Goldfish are going to be ticked off though. Those were their rocks in the bottom of the pond.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:00 AM

        yes, those where the ones with the pond scum on them……I though that goldman/jpm would like the added scum for their collection….

          Jul 20, 2015 20:01 AM

          yeah pond scum would suit goldman/JPM just fine…

    Jul 20, 2015 20:38 AM

    Dollar hits three-month high on rate view, pans gold
    LONDON | BY NIGEL STEPHENSON AND SUJATA RAO
    Markets | Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:11am EDT

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0PU00H20150720

      Jul 20, 2015 20:49 AM

      I guess they can just talk about it without doing anything. We have been in zero rate since the end of 2008

      Jul 20, 2015 20:28 AM

      That three month high won’t last long by my estimation. It is going down again in short order.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:00 AM

        Yes, Gary felt it may hit 98 and reverse, so we’re in that neighborhood with the USD.

        I can still see the case to retest 100.39 in September and possibly break to new highs, but I understand that you felt at the time in March 11 and 13 that this was the top for a while to come.

        In the short term though, I agree with you that we may get a temporary daily cycle top in the dollar, and this will take the pressure off the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Euro and Yen. It should also provide the fuel for the short-term counter-trend bounce in the PMs.

    Jul 20, 2015 20:39 AM

    I feel there is something strange between gold and silver. The timing is quite suspicious. Silver is at rock bottom price and it lost all the gains for last 7 year of zero interest rate and QE and some. It is ultimate non-sense. This price is definitely very hostile to miners. Industry still need it, a lot of it. I would like to see how can they keep pushing the gold/silver ratio up.

      Jul 20, 2015 20:39 AM

      Dump gold to rescue silver shorts might be happening

      Jul 20, 2015 20:53 AM

      Fundamentally, I completely agree with you Lawrence, and there are many reasons for Gold to be going up in value due to the central banking policies, huge debt loads, and currency bifurcations. However, the flight to safety has been to the US dollar instead of PMs for the last 2 years, and gold is trading off technical price points in the paper markets, and not the fundamentals…..(for now).

      This summer sell-off was anticipated and once $1137 and $1131 broke, things started to unwind a bit faster (unhinged from a fundamental driver really). People are trying to tie in the good US numbers, or Greek resolution to fit this action, but really it is just a technical support level getting taken out where tons of sell stops got triggered.

      Let’s see where this nonsensical market takes us all next, and good luck in your investing.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:04 AM

        This is definitely not a free market. It started with bond, then housing and then gold and stocks. The markets have been controlled tightly. People could not be so stupid. The powers led the market into exactly the direction they want and using money from the people to control it. If you sit at the position of US elites, everything play out well. It cannot be this perfect without actively making it happen.

        Jul 20, 2015 20:25 AM

        I don’t know about that, Shad. The gold market makes perfect sense to me. What goes up must come down. I know it gives anguish to the longs and hard cores in the metals camp but I have never understood why they could not accept that once a major decline begins it must complete the directional trend before there will be a renewal.

        The ONLY question in my mind has been how much of a retrace we would get. Judging by silver though it has further to fall and a destiny below 1000 is certainly not out of the question.

        A long while back a very good analyst by the name of Jeffrey Currie of Goldman asserted that gold would see 1050 during 2014. Well we are closing in on 1050 pretty damn fast so it looks like he got that part right even if the bugs defied him and kept prices aloft many months longer than the prediction.

        But I do not think it ends there because that’s too easy. If everyone believed that 1050 would be the final bottom then everyone would be wrong and gold would have to fall to a deeper low as the salivating buyers powered up a fresh period of declines and got clobbered once again.

        My thinking meanwhile is we get another test to 1080 by tomorrow and then a strong bounce gets underway but we will have to wait and see how it plays out. The Asian markets are in the lead on this one so tonights action will give us an answer.

          Jul 20, 2015 20:59 AM

          Good thoughts A Listener. Yes, I agree with with those comments, and it makes sense to me technically, but just not in conjunction with the fundamental drivers Lawrence was discussing.

          Yes I’ve been eyeballing the $1044.70 (Oct 30th, 2009) level as a reasonable level for some support, and that closely lines up with many pundits 1050 level. The next support using the (Feb 20th, 2009 peak) would be at $993.20.

          As for a Fib retracement we got the 50% retracement around 1087, and the 61.8% retracement would come in around $891. I’m not sure Gold will retrace all the way back down to this 61.8% level, but anything is possible. I think a minor dip below $1000 in the high $900’s is still a potential if things get ugly.

          I do agree that a retest and bounce from around 1080-1065 is likely in the short to mid term.

    Jul 20, 2015 20:03 AM

    Bought Royal Gold – RGLD 51.95

    “WHO’S SORRY NOW”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihoZcWJkZ-8

    Jul 20, 2015 20:07 AM

    a listener-the chinese are ascending the S&P is descending… the chines have much less a percentage of their population in the market….maybe their market collapsed as an example to educate the vagaries of parabolic…theres more fraudulent here than there.
    imho. Plus they hold a lot of our debt…I believe it serves our purposed to focus on our own knitting….clean out our own stables first….