Here comes an intermediate cycle bounce in gold
Gary kicks off today with comments on the gold market. He thinks that the huge drop yesterday was the opportunity for big traders to take positions for a significant bear market bounce. You might be surprised to hear how much Gary thinks the gold market could bounce.
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I made a quick 2% from the bounce at the open today. Ya think there is more room for another, at least similar sized move before there is more capitulation first?
50%………..I would like to see it………….
when Bloomberg picks it up…..it will be over….CCF….(contrarian’ s contrarian frank)
CCF – I love it Contrarian’s Contrarian Frank.
By your suggestion of course…….that CCF has now arrived……… 🙂
I have my forward buy order in at $4.25 on NUGT. Glad I missed $6.25.
Jason – I bought JNUG yesterday, then got stopped out taking a beating. Then I bought back in at $8.08 and freaked out all afternoon. Luckily today I sold out of the position today at $9.16 recouping the losses from yesterday and turning a nice little profit. It was a wild ride though……but I wanted to say thanks as your comments yesterday are what started my wheels turning. LPG kept me sane in the post market wrap up though.
Cheers!
I probably don’ know enough about gold to comment precisely, but with regard to silver I disagree with Gary. I believe that this is not merely a temporary bear market rally in silver. There is increasing evidence that physical silver, notwithstanding bullion bank stockpiling, is running short in supply.
Once we get passed July 28th, it is not clear to me that the naked shorts will be able to take silver down significantly again.
Of course, that depends on whether COMEX regulators will allow repeated defaults and large naked shorting after the first forced cash settlement. I suspect they will not, and thus, other than small fluctuations, I am expecting continuous slow increasing prices for silver, as we climb out of this oversold hole.
I feel that premium will rise to the point physical will bear no resemblance to paper price.
Lawrence,
That would be impossible as arbitrage between the paper price and physical would prevent it.
COMEX always restrict delivery. What they can do is to restrict to 1 million ounces a day withdraw all together. People have to wait in line, just like Polish lottery, you win 1 million dollars and you get 1 dollar a year. LBMA has been doing it when demand is high. I am talking about silver.
would’ve been helpful to know what sentiment is at present… 50% doent sound like much
thanks
Halbert produces gold sentiment index, often reported on market watch:
E.g.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-still-no-hope-for-the-gold-market-2015-04-08
This is a page I often use at stock charts to get long range indices:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/marketindexes.html?st=gold+sentiment+index
Thanks for posting that CFS. I always forget about all the resources and tools available on stockcharts.com. Good refresher!
DITTO
Good for starters Agatha.
I agree with Gary completely. Al and Cory, the negative msm talk is good as it adds to the fear which clears the market of weak hands. The return of retail interest will happen automatically as the sector goes up. The little guy is forever a price chaser.
Yep and Yup.
Damned iPad strikes incorrecting again!
Hulbert produces the index
The problem with the miners is this: Most of them have huge debt levels. Declining base metal prices + rising interest rates= not good. Not good + geopolitical risks= disaster. Companies like GG avoid geopolitical risks but their debt is out of this world. Some of the juniors have great balance sheets but their geopolitical risks could kill them. Trade your poison carefully.
Interesting thoughts from Gary. We’ll see how things play out.
But I will note the following:
If I am not mistaken:
1) June 2013 low: stocks bottomed 2 days ahead of gold before a nice run.
2) Nov 2014 low: stocks bottomed 1 day ahead of gold before a nice run.
This is typical: the stocks bottom before the metal.
It would be quite unusual for stocks and gold to bottom on the same day (yday) ahead of a nice run (Gary’s expected 50% move correspond to a “nice run” in my book). Obviously, “unusual” doesn’t mean “impossible”.
Again, we shall see.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Gold miner’s sentiment @3%
Gold miners are not just a vehicle for short term alpha returns, but are the yielding asset in the gold space. This is why the irrational trade in gold had a much greater effect on the miners.
I am not diversified, and own just one gold mining stock that I’ve been collecting over the years for a couple of reasons. They consolidated all the prospective ground years ago, and are the last surviving gold mining company with a mill in place. They are able to produce gold to fill out their capital requirement, and the mines all start at surface.
There is no bid under the stock, so you can buy any amount that is offered with the money you have on hand.
GBN.V all necessary research is available on AGORACOM
what gold stock is it fransix… ??? THANK YOU
Look through the link library, the photos, and the profile for a good in depth research. I am very satisfied that This work uncovers what the company has kept secret all these years:
Any concerns about their debt? I am not familiar with their situation.
They have ZERO debt and ZERO capital requirements. Financial assets are carried in the liabilities column.
Thank you, I am going to take a look.
Is this like putting pennies in a jar……………?
I can see that the company has 13 sites……..Lucky number? CCF…… 🙂
All kidding aside………..seem to me they have some wise management….long term thinking…..hold down the cost., survival mode………..jmho
And to answer questions directly whether I’m working for the company or have an ulterior motive in posting about GBN.V, I think you’ll find I spend a lot of time contradicting the official line from the company. In fact, what I’m saying is very opposed to what the company presents. But then you would have to read the material provided adequately and do your own diligence with this company. I think this is an absolute requirement.
Done Fran….and I am not buying,
Thanks anyway.
Nobody’s twisting anybody’s arm.
so isthis the company? Eagle Plains Resources Ltd.
This is the company:
http://www.goldenbandresources.com/index.cfm
Interesting FranSix – I have never heard of Golden Brand Resources, but it looks interesting as they put their mine on care and maintenance 2 years back but have continued to develop their resources for when the Gold price recovers. They should have a nice multiplier effect once PMs recover. Good stuff.
No, satellite photos show that the company continued to process stockpiled ores. That means the escrow account containing all of the unrefined doré bars is bulging with assets, while the capital raise was at the end of calendar 2013 and the undeclared earnings are sitting in an account. I assume they’re going to write off the accumulated deficit, and announce an expansion.
Very interesting. I just glanced at their website briefly and it was saying the mine was on care an maintenance, but I didn’t realize they were still processing stockpiled ores. Thanks FranSix for the heads up.
I think Fransix is a company principle. In other words…….ask more questions Shad.
I own shares, and have been accumulating for 8 years. I don’t work for the company. All of the available research available online took years to accumulate, you may as well take advantage.
THANKS FOR SHARING…………………..ootb, ccf, jtl, the boot.
I looked at your link. Virtually all the posts are yours. Since you have endorsed the company on this site and appear to be the primary speaker on their behalf it is in everyone’s interest that you disclose the extent of your relationship to the company. Is Fransix on the board for example?
Thanks FranSix for the info. I’ll do a little more digging and appreciate sharing the company.
Yup I’m the only poster. No spicy tomato paste,Sherlock!
You’re going to have do more than just take a peek. I post weekly commentary on what I manage to find out, but the best available information is in the profile and the link library.
I read quite a few of the posts actually. Don’t assume we are just a flock of fools here, buddy.
On July 22, 2015 FranSix says:
“I own shares, and have been accumulating for 8 years”.
———————
How many shares Fran? What percentage of the company?
Listener, you are a major screwball. Do you want to see my underwear, too?
How many shares Fran? You are here promoting a stock so its a fair question since you appear to be the only one talking it up. Even Matthew had never heard of it and he probably does the most research on juniors of anyone here.
No pump and dump please. Just saying….
Sold it all…. see you in November..
The Wall Street Journal sometimes seems like it should be called, The Daily Contrarian.
Bank of Japan says no need for extra quantitative easing
Could be some un-winding of the carry trade. Should be beneficial for the mining sector.
Pretty bullish sounding Gary. But personally I would not plan on a ride too far above 1250 before gold begins to head back down again.
1250 is about the highest target I would envision.
If that is my target, I am not going to touch gold. No upside. I will move to other sectors.
Looks like we are going to get a retest of the lows on gold. That was my initial thoughts on Monday that we would see another spike down to at least 1087 if not 1080 itself. Currently we are trading 1092 even and still falling. To me the buy point is fast approaching if that holds and a fairly nice corrective bear market bounce should materialize after that.
It makes sense to me. The price crash was completely artificial in the first place and that says the market will seek its own equilibrium level again which was (up until that power crash) a struggle around the 1200 dollar mark.
I agree with you A Listener, and mentioned yesterday we may come back down to the $1087 Fib retracement or the $1080 touched in overnight Asian markets Sunday night/Monday morning for a double bottom, and then the counter-trend reversal back up. I’d say we have a good chance of seeing that this week, and then maybe a nice pop up to test $1232.
Off topic:
The more we learn about the Iran Treaty, the more disgusting it becomes.
Iranian official says movement and trade of intercontinental ballistic missiles not covered by treaty.
The Iran leader says UN inspection of Iranian military sites not included in treaty!
My comment. So all they have to do is move centrifuges to a military site.
(The last UN inspection of uranium stockpile showed an increase of 20%, instead of the promised decrease.
What a farce our dictator is. He is destroying stability of the Middle East.
He is destroying the U.S. wake up steeple!
US president needs to focus on China and Russia so he wants to abandon Iran issue, which requires resources. I think it is all. Other are just smoke and mirror.
Sheeple
Russia says it will be building two more nuclear power stations in Iran.
Article referred to by Al…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-continues-sliding-hits-5-year-low-1437368325
just so we are all on the same page a 50% bounce is what number in the gold price?
Im not too trusting of Hulbert…I mean… who is measuring..? If gary gets this call correctly…
Bank of Japan owned by the U.S.-what does this portend…?
CFS- Iran is not the problem…what do we build in Israel…..?Its a 2 way street.Maybe 3 way…
Euro, Yen and Canadian dollar all popping. Time to go long gold (my opinion….never listen to anything I say btw because it is easy enough to be wrong)…but I am going long gold and short USD.
Don’t buy NUGT and JNUG yet. Wait until the end of this week or at next week to buy. Not so sure about 50% increase but with the bludgeoning they got yesterday, a rise will surely come. I also agree with Gary that the final bottom is not in yet. Good luck to all traders!
50% is very probable wiseguy but as you said they both have to fall further.Regarding the bottom for gold it is surely not in yet.
Agree
Good thoughts Wiseguy. I’d really like to see a retest of the 1087 Fib or 1080 overnight low from Sunday, and then think we get a counter-trend relief rally. However, I still expect lower lows down near $1044 ($1000-$1050 zone) later this year. It would just be a short-term trade on this bounce and not a buy and hold scenario.
1250 isn’t a v good bounce….wheres the 50% coming from…?Im w Lawrence
1250 would be a superb bounce Agatha. That represents a 160 dollar move from where we now sit on gold and those kinds of correction bounces typically happen in short time periods.
If the coming bounce is big, NUGT should double… !
Watch like a hawk!
There will be no bounce.
We are simply in a new lower range
That is quite possible James TL. However, even in a range there are up and down waves, and this will likely just be a counter-trend rally, but followed by even lower lows in the mid-term.
David Morgan Talks Silver — 32 minutes — Safehaven.com
http://safehaven.com/article/38348/david-morgan-talks-silver
Good one A listener – ‘so-called free market now in the hands of control freaks…’
I thought so too. David does a great interview once he gets warmed up and starts rolling.
I do not think the” control freaks” are going to let go any time soon…………..jmho
Always interesting to repost old posts.
It gives you another perspective
Here’s one I posted December 16th, 2014
THIS WAS NO BOATING ACCIDENT.
THIS WAS A SHARK
This is NOT TAX LOSE SELLING
THIS IS A SHARK
The Russian Ruble is crashing, the Russian economy is crashing.
Oil is crashing.
The world is falling apart.
Stocks were down triple digits, the shorts were ready to put a stake on it.
gold was up $30 getting back all of yesterday’s losses.
Then what happened?
Shortly after the FOMC MEETING COMMENCED EVERYTHING REVERSED.
If anyone thinks these markets are any better than a Las Vegas casino you need to get your head examined.
Chartster,
You are congratulating GARY on great calls.
Exactly which calls are you congratulating him on?
First he said it was time to go long and buy gold.
He said the bottom was in and not to let your emotions keep you from buying.
Then to cover his back he said he put a hedge on.
Then he said gold would go to $1280
Now he is saying it won’t
Again I ask you exactly what call are we supposed to congratulate him on?
Are you that deluded?
Al, a few weeks ago you said you stepped off the curb.
Now you are saying you are on the sidelines?
Help me connect the dots
James,
Gary has made a lot of good calls.
I’ve always said the washout is coming. And it will be much lower than most think. We are headed to a bottom in the mid 500s on gold. It’s going to happen. And probably before mid October. I’ve explained why it will. No need to explain any longer. Just watch it happen.
I agree Chartster. I have become a fan of Gary over the past year because he has developed a really good instinct for the market the way he meshes sentiment. momentum, cycles and technical readings. Maybe he just has better intuition than most because he so often gets calls right that come across as contrary to what everyone else is saying. Anyway James….lets leave the past in the past. ALL of us get calls wrong sometimes. That includes yours for bottoms in gold and silver.
A Listener,
What we get on this site with Gary and Doc ( and others, of course ) is top notch IMO. Both of those men bring knowledge that is incredible. I’ve second guessed both of them and they are usually correct.
I will still be second guessing 1.20 on the dollar..
( sorry Gary )
500s on gold is more probable than a 1.20 dollar.
I think the dollar and the euro are going down, along with gold. Yup, the inverse euro/dollar trade is close to it’s end.
When gary mentioned 120 he was referring to the dollar index not the eur/usd chartster.
I know
He made good calls because he uses manipulation theory, only one here. However, it is likely the manipulation will change due to the lack of physical gold and especially silver. Then let’s see whether Gary can still make good calls.
I have to agree with you J over the conflicting messages. I’m holding out hopes for the end of the year. ….Sorry that’s only a hunch (remember)?!
Gary isn’t predicting the future. He’s just saying where the odds are, and is changing his mind of the odds change. Like any good trader.
James the lesser, I’ll remember what you wrote above (copied below), and see if you’re good at predicting the future. We should know soon.
On July 21, 2015 at 12:38 pm,
James (the lesser) says:
There will be no bounce.
We are simply in a new lower range
Shad……….will help ya, if need you forget……….. 😉
Thazzz right!
mis-spell – meant: “changing his mind *if* the odds change”
James should stick to the horses.
Its what he’s apparently better at predicting.
It wasn’t that long ago he was shouting down those who predicted gold would fall below HIS previous prediction of the low (which has been smashed).
Yet he has the audacity to challege others over gold lower prices ?…& has changed his tune himself ?
…..just another trumpet blower on gold prices James.
Stick to your horse stories/analogies…at least they where both amusing & worth a read.
A low at $1080 was in line with the slow downtrend channel of the past 1.5 years.
Key levels for gold in other key currencies (Euro and Pound) are on the verge of being lost 1000 EUR and 700 GBP. Swiss Franc gold is back at its lows. Gold is evens breaking down in Japanese Yen.
There had better be a good bounce from here. The upside given the previous trading range is $1250-1260. Otherwise gold could fall out of the trading range to a new lower range. The current range is about $200 in width (1100-1300) so that might indicate that a 900-1100 range is coming.
Interestingly, $1087 is the Fibonacci 50% correction of the gold bull upmove (which was from $253 to $1920). $890 would be 61.8% correction. A low of $890 would equal the 1980 high and would be a Golden Ratio lovefest, see chart below:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/gold-target-under-1100-easy-forecast-5.html
+1. Good stuff Dave.
JEFFREY CURRIE trashes gold again, calls for under $1000
Off topic:
http://nypost.com/2015/07/18/obama-has-been-collecting-personal-data-for-a-secret-race-database/
Big Brother:
Such databases have never before existed. Obama is presiding over the largest consolidation of personal data in US history. He is creating a diversity police state where government race cops and civil-rights lawyers will micromanage demographic outcomes in virtually every aspect of society.