Comments on the conventional markets and what a healthy correction would be
Gary kicks off today with a focus on the conventional markets. He says a healthy correction would entice retail traders to enter the market and lead to a final bubble phase that could last a year and a half.
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Yes Marty but full of optimism for those who have the lactic acid to complete the course!
Link does not work.
It will be:
http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/
That is the link to whatever is their latest show.
Link to the particular show from 22 July 2015:
Meanwhile, the miners continue to get killed.
Fittest survives. It is so hostile to miners. It is a nightmare. I never see the XAU HUI so low.
This should not have worked this way without manipulation downward. We have high premium and shortage and mints have to stop selling. At same time, gold goes down to kill exactly same guys who produce this stuff.
I believe this government sponsored crack down on gold will make most of gold miners either zombies or bankrupt. When confidence on fiat currency fades, the gold/silver will spike so high or even not available at any reasonable price since they have huge supply shortage. This happen many times in history but this time could be magnified a thousand times by the mass weapon of financial destruction.
There will be a ultimate supply/demand mismatch when official dumping comes to an end, which is a certainty due to their limited stock pile.
I fully agree with all your points Lawrence.
Yes they are Tom, I personally subscribe to Doc’s philosophy that at these prices there are some absolutely phenomenal buys out there. (Assuming your time frame is not short term.)
That’s better. Thanks Marty.
when the last uber bear person turns bullish that is the time to sell all your stocks.
Which sector are you referring to don?
It applies to all sectors Al.It is a rule of thumb for me.Many call it the contrarian indicator.
NUGT 1 cent away from a new low. 🙁
I am thinking of going back into JNUG here near the close Jason. Gold is at the 50% Fib retracement of $1087 finally. This $1087-$1080 double bottom is what I’ve been waiting to retest technically, to get the pop up counter-trend move.
My concern is that Gold also still could drop further down to potentially the $1067-$1065 area of support in overnight trading. Regardless, we are getting down in the $1087-$1080 zone where I could at least see a short to mid-term bounce happen.
Jason…I ended up wading back into a small position in JNUG in the last few minutes of trading. Hoping we bounce from here, but am prepared that we still may dip tomorrow down to the recent $1080 low, or worst case the next support down at $1067-!065. Fingers crossed, cannons at the ready!
OK, never mind. I just sold my JNUG positions in afterhours for 2% profit and bailed out of that position in case we may have one more down day tomorrow. I’d rather make a tiny profit now and have cash to deploy tomorrow, than lose my shirt in the chaos of overnight trading. Sure, I could miss a morning bounce, but I’ll just get into the pre-market mix and see what’s happening bright and early.
Shad….Well done…A small profit is better than a loss.
I buy scrap G&S i make a small profit on each deal….but lots of small deals , adds to a good profit.
You are getting some great executions,if a price increase of 2% nets you a profit!
good move shad.According to my technicals gold has to drop down further.At the moment it is consolidating(descending triangle on the 1hr chart) but it wont be long before it drops back down below 1085 level targeting the 1070 support level.
Agreed Irish. I don’t mind a small base hit every once in a while….They add up.
Thanks Big Al. Normally I like 10-20% profits on swing trades (or 20-30% on penny stocks), but I’d rather break even or just make a small profit over losing money.
Don Corleone – I appreciate the thoughts, and am in the same camp. I wanted to see Gold pull back to the $1087-$1080 zone, so $1085 is right in there, and there is another layer of support in $1067-1065 zone if $1080 fails. I’d expect a turn and counter-trend rally to start from either one of those targets, but the low still may come in tomorrow, and Gold may take until next week for the actual bounce.
The miners don’t have to track with the spot price, but the last few days they have been. If the bounce starts tomorrow, then so be it….I have dry powder ready to deploy.
Good luck to all in their investing!
And to you,Shad.
Are we going to see you in New Orleans?
Funny you ask Al. I’m trying to get the buy-in from my lady, and New Orleans around Halloween does sound hauntingly fun, and I’d love to be at the show. She’s vetoed the decision, and would rather see us save the money at present and said I can watch the coverage videos and articles written from the show online for free without dragging us both down to Louisiana. I’ll probably yield to her wishes as she puts up with all my nonsense 🙂
I am on the same page as you shad.I am waiting for a good entry position in nugt or jnug.Watching technicals like a hawk.momentum indicators are way oversold.
Good luck to you Don Corleone. We’ll see what adventures tomorrow brings.
Time to buy some more metals,by the feel of the paranoia.
I assume that you are referring to physical?
On July 22, 2015 at 12:15 pm,
Matthew says:
James, does the debt situation/insolvency of the West mean anything to you? India? China?
Reply to this comment
My answer:
Whether it means anything to me or not is irrelavent.
The gold price doesn’t get its marching orders by what means anything to me, or you, or anyone else for that matter.
Too many people on this site still think the gold price has to do what they think it should be doing.
Isn’t every investment made based on the expectation that our expectations will be correct? You’re a funny guy James.
I am not worried about gold. It will continue to do what it always has whether you can see it or not.
More like what they would like it to do, The Greater!
Miners now pricing in a break of Gold’s lower trendline. $900-$700 Gold could come by Spring.
Under that price, nearly all miners will go bankrupt, if it is long enough.
Gold is going to two dollars because the US Fed paper is the fairest fiat in the bloated and insolvent pig sty.
I doubt gold will fall below its base @35 and 20.
Again I would ask, $35 and/or $20?
Two dollars?
Matthew, your absolutely right. It will continue to do what it always has.
Like go up and then go down.
Every investment must be compared to other investments.
Gold and silver are losers. There is no debate about that.
Again, gold and silver are doing what they have always done. So why did you buy losers?
Currently of course they are. The million dollar question is, “what does the future hold?”
As hard as it may be for your to believe this but your expectation may be wrong.
It is possible
How did that Joni Mitchell song go?
I’ve looked at life from both sides now
From win and lose and still somehow
It’s life’s illusions I recall
I really don’t know life at all
Well I’ve looked at gold from both sides now
From winning and losing
And after sixteen years of being in this gold market I really don’t know gold at all.
But after sixteen years of being invested in this market, following it daily, and making and losing a fortune I’ve think I’ve earned the right to say something.
First – gold (and way I say gold I also mean its little sister silver) is a sh*tty investment.
Disagree with me, I don’t really care. I am not concerned about your approval.
Frankly it is not even an investment. It is purely a speculation on rising or falling prices.
Any “investment” that can literally go down as much as 70% in silvers case is a sh*tty investment.
Any “investment” that can literally make a person start all over again is a sh*tty investment.
Gold has not keep up with inflation.
Gold can be shoved around easily by market manipulators.
Gold does not have the central banks at its back.
This gold market is completely broken.
Look at a ten year chart.
This market could still have a year or two of bottoming and than if, and that’s a big IF, another five or more years to climb back to $1900.
And even if it did climb back to $1900 in five to seven years, IT WOULDN’T CHANGE ANYTHING – it still will have been a sh*tty investment.
That’s just the truth. I get no pleasure in saying it.
For those newbies who are thinking of buying gold – don’t
Leave it to the central banks to kick around.
If you have a profit – book your profit and get out
If you have a loss – take your loss and get out
I can only sit on it and wait for a turn at this point.
It is comes, it comes, if it doesn’t, it doesn’t.
That is not an investment. That is just speculating.
I GO TO THE TRACK TO SPECULATE. Not the gold market.
And stop the nonsense about gold being insurance. IT ISN’T.
Gold has as much right being insurance as I have of being shortstop for the New York Yankees.
I would rather have a good comic book collection or a collectable car.
Actually I am thinking of dabbling in this space.
The BMW BAVARIA 1971 is a good vintage model that has a lot of upside potential.
It is not the type of car people necessarily think of as collectable and it is increasing in value in a quiet under the radar type of way. These are the bets I like. VALUE AND EDGE.
Like gold was back in the beginning, 1999
However unlike gold, the BMW will not lose 50% to 70% of its value, it will not be manipulated by Bernanke or Yellen and you can admire it and have some fun while it is increasing in value.
Unlike gold, which just sits there, like a pet rock.
You can dig your heels in and tell me I’m wrong. That’s ok.
But the PRICE SPEAKS FOR ITSELF.
YOU CANT ARGUE WITH THE RESULTS.
So let’s hope people get stupid again for gold, cash out of this loser investment and put an end to this complete waste of time.
Good luck
That’s just the perspective of someone who wishes he sold. If you were new to the sector, would argue that gold/silver should be avoided at this moment?
I just sold a Porsche 911 a few weeks at a little more than I paid for it 2.5 years earlier.
Found a good deal on a 9114s at a Porsche dealer out of town and picked it up last Saturday.
Always good money in auto’s if you know what you are doing……….jmho
Pretty darn impressive Paul. I don’t think that would be possible after 2.5 months with a Corvette!
My God James you talk like the shill you accuse others of being. You hypothesise and speculate like you’ve got the whole gold market sassed. You haven’t! Nor would I buy a used beemer from you, just on the basis of your say-so that it shouldn’t depreciate in value.
50% correction of the 2001-2011 price move is $1089.
During this period gold has been a stellar investment in every currency.
James,it is ime for you to take some Prozak,get drunk or get a hooker. You have lost your balls,bud.
http://goldprice.org/
Yes, it depends on the starting point price and ending point price you have. I have it calculated around $1087 but was going from 1999 to 2011. Regardless the $1086-1089 area is the 50% Fib retracement zone for most traders.
This is why it is possible we could get a bounce from here at $1087.40 Gold.
Why anyone would buy gold or miners ( for long term ) right now is beyond me. Sure but the dips and sell, yes. Swing trade the ETFs, yes. But to buy and hold right now, knowing it’s going down is being a _____ ____.
That said, when the PMs hit bottom the mining stocks should rebound just before, and I expect they double, triple and quadruple in value in a very short time frame. So it’s good to stay focused on the prize…!
Gary,
are you still calling for a 1.5 to 2 month bounce here in the metals and miners?
Him and his crew are underwater right now…probably waiting for a swing to get 100% in rather than 50%.
A very accurate analyst I follow is expecting a bounce for about 1 month, but not before mid to low 12s are seen in GDX. Gary has GUARANTEED that the corrective rally starts this week..(Tuesdays podcast)….but I have my doubts.
Might be a stupid investment but it saved my grandfather’s life back in China in 1949.
And what about the off chance that there is a currency collapse? I may not have 100’s of 1,000’s invested in gold and silver, but you better believe,that we have enough to feel comfortable.
Regarding the Bavaria, I cannot disagree. Remember I drive a BMW covertable that is a dozen years old with less that 60K miles on it. Not as valuable as a 70’s something Bavaria, but still a lot of fun! (And, really not depreciating as badly as most.)
Short term moves are hard to call. It looks like the bounce is next week.
Most are long in the options market. So it makes sense that metals are held down until early next week.
Anyone making a guarantee is guaranteed to be wrong.
Yesterday, FranSix said “Prices should be held low for the close on Friday.”
I think he’ll be correct and the rise will start next week.
Next Week, Option expiry for gold, Silver delivery, FOMC, all significant.
Yes, I was thinking about that statement from Fransix. I am wondering if Gold will hover in the $1087-$1080 area tomorrow morning, or if we may get a bounce tomorrow afternoon. I waded back into JNUG near the close nibbling at a small position.
That may bite me if we have pressure in overnight Asian markets, but my thesis is we came and tested $1087 and I see that as one area we may get enough support for a bounce (although $1080 was the recent low touched, so I could see a dip down to their tomorrow and then a bounce from there).
OK, The Fransix warning haunted me, so I just sold my JNUG positions in afterhours for 2% profit and bailed out of that position in case we may have one more down day tomorrow. I’d rather make a tiny profit now and have cash to deploy tomorrow, than lose my shirt in the chaos of overnight trading. Sure, I could miss a morning bounce, but I’ll just get into the pre-market mix and see what’s happening bright and early. Cheers!
Shad,
Funny comments but, I can’t blame you one bit.
As I was reading your comments, I was laughing thinking the exact same thing. Funny
Yes, I’ve been a bit trigger-happy lately, and had a wild ride on JNUG earlier in the week that got hectic but worked out OK. These 3x leveraged ETFS are crazy, and when they are tied to Jr Mining (which is already quite volatile) this can cause 15-30% swings on a daily basis, and it is easy to wiped out or make a big chunk of change, but I like moving in when I feel there is a turn in the tide.
So, the more I thought about where my targets are for the turn in PMs, the more I was having buying remorse, so when the after market trading jumped up where I had a small profit, I exited stage right 🙂
I’m willing to miss a potential gain in the morning madness, than waking up to a severe haircut. Too many times recently, Gold or Silver has gotten slammed in the Asian markets or in the pre-market thinner trading. If PMs get slammed tomorrow, I’ll likely be a buyer.
Good luck to you in your investing Chartster!
I bought some GDXJ calls late in the day when it went below 18.50. I think my odds are good.
Matthew,
I think you’re gonna be good with that trade. I’m kinda thinking next week will tell a good story. But, it’s so volatile that holding over night long? Might not be wrong?
Tuff stuff. I still like the move, Matthew. Committed and respected!
Gold got down to $1078 in overnight trading but has now bounced back to $1083-$1084, so I am glad I sold and went flat. It does seem Gold is trying to find it’s short-term bottom, and we are in the zone where it should happen, so we should get a bounce out of either this area, or if it get’s slammed down to the $1067-$1065 zone.
The question is what will happen the rest of the night in overseas trading and how will the pre-markets set up in the morning? This is starting to get exciting again.
I do wish my man Matthew the best of luck with his GDXJ calls when things kick off tomorrow.
goods luck matthew.Stick to your guns cause a bounce is coming.
Took a position out in JNUG, again @ $7.22, but I’ve very glad I sold out my position in after-hours last night, to skip the overseas madness and early morning declines.
We’ll see how it goes today, but since we have come down into the $1080-$1087 zone yesterday, dipped below it briefly in over seas trading, and are back in that zone again this morning, I believe we’ll get our bounce into next week (and possibly this afternoon may kick it off). I may be a little early to the party, but I’m ready to make a nice chunk on a short-term counter-trend rally in PMs in these bloodied up Jr Miners.
Sold 75% of position in JNUG at $8.82 today for a splendid 22% profit. I held onto 25% of the position in case the bounce continues into next week.
Well, I bought yesterday based on Gary’s thought that we would get a significant bounce after Sunday night’s takedown, but got clobbered today. Is the bounce still in the cards? or have things changed?
After market close, we have a divergent low on the 2 and 1 hr charts of GDX.
Odds are that GDX will go up soon, maybe tomorrow.
If prices start to rise, it’s going to be hard to pickthe right place to get on board, and where to put a stop. If we “V” up, putting a stop at the last pivot low is taking on a lot of risk. Not sure what to do here… will think on it.
Gary, is the def of a swing low, a candle that makes a higher low?
Then put a stop at just below that new higher low?
My swing trading model uses moving average lines, but they are way too far above price not to be of any help …
MA has posted that if gold closes above 1084 for the weekly it should rally fir a couple of weeks and then plunge to the 1980 high. If gold closes below 1084 then its headed to the 1980 high immediatly. Final low could be in 1st quarter 2016 at around the 650 area.
The 1980 high? Wow. That will be quite a tumble from where we sit now. Should scare all the kids out of the pool too. The bears would be absolutely in control of the show at that point. Actually I am beginning to wonder if the last of the bulls have not almost capitulated and gone into hibernation.
The elusive “final” low, we hear about them, but seldom see them, kinda like sasquatch.
Some wonder if “final lows” even exist.
Hilarious if Dent turns out to be the genius.
I like Dent’s thinking.
I kind of hope Dent is wrong. Not that cheap gold would bother me but its what cheap gold says about inflation rates, employment levels, debt, housing, stock markets and war.
I mean…its a pretty disturbing picture if we see 200 dollar gold again.
True.
The opposite is also true – $5000 gold would be bad, too.
Not sure, but I think that Dent is saying that we have deflation and low gold prices 1st, and then inflation and higher gold later, like in a few yrs or so. From my frail memory.
Dent has had virtually nothing right hardly ever. Broken clock losing a fortune for people ..
He is an ABSOLUTE BUFFOON! There isn’t a forecaster in the media that has a clue.
Dent is a fool.
I finally bought some GDX today but I may be a little early. I have been waiting since $20+.
You shouldn’t have too wait much longer for a nice pop Paul L.
Morris Hubbartt on 321gold offers a reasonable service called sfsjuniors. He has a new list up each morning and a new video. I encourage everyone to find his site and have a look
He’s been pretty accurate—super force signals. Buys & Sells the juniors. Honest man.
At present he has only one Long the rest are in the bull pen corralled.
Agatha – I agree with your mention of Morris Hubbartt. He is a good guy, has good technical analysis, and when the miners are doing good or bad he’s usually fairly level-headed. Yes I like watching his bull pen for stocks temporarily on hold/sell area, but almost all of the stocks they follow are corralled in the pen at present, so it is more of a blanket statement. Here’s a link to his bull pen right now.
http://superforcejuniors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015july22pen.jpg
Yes, it looks like only Gabriel Resources is the only stock on their buy list.
Here is his latest video on that and why they are on the sidelines during the bloodbath phase:
http://superforce60.com/video/2015july21avoidingblood/2015july21avoidingblood.html
great info………….appreciate………..you the man..SHAD………………..OOTBCLAW
AND thanks AGATHA…………………..
Another sobering perspective from David McAlvany : http://Www.mcalvanyweekly commentary.com concerning the P Metals