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Opportunities Still are Out There

Big Al
July 23, 2015

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Optimism always produces much more than pessimism. Stay well informed and stay nimble.

Discussion
186 Comments
    Jul 23, 2015 23:16 AM

    17,500 going back to 14,000………..for sure……..

      Jul 23, 2015 23:30 AM

      YES……..GREG MANNARINO………………called this market weeks ago………it’s going down, down, down !!!!!!!

        Jul 23, 2015 23:31 AM

        ….AND MY ALGO’S FOR THE FALL IS STILL BULLISH FOR GOLD!

          Jul 23, 2015 23:33 AM

          I am a bull with bear claws……………………

            Jul 23, 2015 23:48 AM

            Me too but with “short” bear claws. lol

            Jul 23, 2015 23:03 PM

            funny.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:41 PM

          Thanks Mark.

          You have to admit there is a pretty weak “buy side” right now to that particularly equation.

          But there remain some very respectable buys out there unless a person is a very short term trader. And,I believe, that now is not the time to be a short term trader.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:38 PM

        Thanks Mark, no disrespect to Greg but he was not alone in that call.

      Jul 23, 2015 23:37 PM

      Okay Indiana, but there will still be a ton of opportunities out there.

      As you know my friend, I am still getting over my stroke it does me, or anyone for that matter, absolutely no good to focus on the negative. Sure, there is a lot of crap going on out there, but common if we focus on that life is simply no fun!

        Jul 23, 2015 23:07 PM

        No question about the opportunities in certain markets.

        Sorry , I hope you are getting to feel better. I will try and reframe from negative news going forward.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:37 AM

    Doc,
    An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone “too far too fast,” as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B- C formations. In double or triple threes (see next section), they appear only as the final “C” wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement.

    So, if that’s the case, we can have a throw-over and a move up after …
    The larger degree is to be seen.

    http://www.thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html

      Jul 23, 2015 23:58 AM

      I KNOW THAT A LOT OF YOU GUYS ARE INTO THIS ELLIOT WAVE SYSTEM……….BUT……….the way these markets are so fully manipulated at this point due to the desperation of the UNITED STATES, NONE OF THIS MATTERS!

        Jul 23, 2015 23:45 PM

        I guess I would have to ask the question Mark, “then what does matter”?

      Jul 23, 2015 23:44 PM

      Afternoon, at least out here, Gabriel as I have admitted many times in the past, sophistication like yours, is way beyond me!

      Thanks for the comment as it certainly increases my knowledge.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:49 AM

    Unfortunately, I’m not much into Elliot wave—I wonder if you could translate that into the monthly gold chart, Gabriel?

    Jul 23, 2015 23:51 AM
      Jul 23, 2015 23:49 PM

      And yet, another intelligent exercise to spend money on! Right Reverend?

      Jul 23, 2015 23:56 AM

      have to do something with all the plastic water bottles…………..ccf

        Jul 23, 2015 23:57 AM

        my xomment needs to move up one story, posted in wrong area……………..ccf

      Jul 23, 2015 23:50 PM

      A lot of folks are feeling that way!

    Jul 23, 2015 23:04 PM

    DOW NOW DOWN 120 POINTS………..NOTE, CATERPILLAR IN TROUBLE!

      Jul 23, 2015 23:13 PM

      big time………..

      Jul 23, 2015 23:03 PM

      US dollar going up is disastrous. Other countries make their stuff cheaper and better.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:17 PM

        Hard to beat a Cat diesel ………..

        Jul 23, 2015 23:45 PM

        I remember China used to import a lot of those equipments and they are more self made now. AT same time, there are a lot of imported Chinese heavy equipments in US now. This seem have started to happen only a few years ago.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:53 PM

          Correct if I am wrong………but, I think in order for Cat, or any other manufacturer to get into china…..the companies were requested to hand over all their trade secrets.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:54 PM

            I did not know that Indy. Can you verify?

            Jul 23, 2015 23:34 PM

            Sorry…….No, because I read it three or four or longer years ago, when all the US companies were trying to get into China market, before the Chinese market took off.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:57 PM

            Fair enough, thanks man!

            Jul 23, 2015 23:48 PM

            Absolutely not. Only when China suspects the company may harm Chinese interest like Google which is accused of spying. If what you said is the case, China would never have got any technology. One example is Samsung. It never disclosed anything. They even refuse to manufacture in China, instead, they setup factory in Vietnam. This hurts their quality, cost and image, so Chinese companies like Huawei took over large chunk of market share. It is why I said the western media’s disinformation about China is strong. They will grab one instance (e.g. farmer is trading stock on banana stand) distort it and generalize it or even manufacture news. US government classify it as a strategy and legalized.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:32 PM

            The other example is when I went to China for a conference around 15 years ago., My friend is a smart card expert. One local company came to approach my friend about getting the smart card technology. They said for machinery, they can dissemble it and for smart card, nothing they can see. He want to hire my friend to get the smart card trade secret. If China requires company to disclose technology to China, the local companies have no need to acquire it with illegal means.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:15 PM

            Lawrence…………”China would never have got any technology”…your comment.
            Response, according to what I remember, they were willing to share the technology in trade for the potential sales, considering 1 billion people .

        Jul 23, 2015 23:53 PM

        Of course, but for those of us who live 5 miles from the Canadian border, talk about an inexpensive vacation. Talk about inexpensive auto service, talk about inexpensive restaurants!

        And the beat goes on!

      Jul 23, 2015 23:51 PM

      Tip of the iceberg, Mark?

    Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

    ******** LIKE I SAID A FEW WEEKS AGO…….HERE COME THE BLACK SWANS !!!!! ***********
    It’s a Ponzi planet!

      Jul 23, 2015 23:18 PM

      More fleecing is on the way…………….

      Jul 23, 2015 23:56 PM

      And has been for quite some time!

      On a positive note, I remember back in 1999 when a lot of our friends were getting absolutely killed financially and Kathy and I found companies that did nothing but make us money.

      You have to understand the environment and effectively roll with the punches!

        Jul 23, 2015 23:37 PM

        Markets and investments are always changing…..just like today…………..ccf

        Jul 23, 2015 23:42 PM

        You have a great point Al. We can’t win by getting bogged down and depressed that the usual stuff is not working and not giving the expected returns. On the other hand not everyone is flexible enough to shift into stocks that are unfamiliar. If you have been into utilities all your life then buying upstart robotics companies will feel like pretty unfamiliar territory.

        That’s where I find myself some times especially when it comes to exotic technologies, pharmaceuticals and medical advances and I really need to rely on the advice of guys who understand those fields.

        I cannot agree more though that picking a list of good companies and getting familiar with them in advance of the opportunity to buy is a good idea. No sorry, a GREAT idea. I have a select list of miners I keep handy for when the washout comes. Not just gold either but its across the resources sector. I fine tune it weekly.

        Otherwise it would just be random picks based on what everyone else is buying. No rhyme or reason. And we all know the mob is almost always wrong in the end.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:09 PM

    Should have split my NUGT buy order. Could have gobbled up some new 52 week lows.

      Jul 23, 2015 23:38 PM

      Splitting your NUGT(s) sounds really painful, Jason.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:31 PM

        Ha! good one Brian : – )

    Jul 23, 2015 23:34 PM

    DOW NOW DOWN 140 POINTS…………….OIL NOW DOWN $48.74!

      Jul 23, 2015 23:39 PM

      BEAR-ER OF BAD NEWS……………..rotation time………Junk bonds in Illinois 8% return , great all time American city, I am sure Chris T. will be soaking up the coupon payments………..Besides lake Michigan has raised 3 feet and is raising tide for all boats , so to speak………………………………..CCF. BEAR CLAWS……

        Jul 23, 2015 23:59 PM

        Lake Michigan has raised twelve feet?

        Jul 23, 2015 23:11 PM

        You’re cracking me up today with the Bear Claw…..Frank….The BOOT….OOTB….CCF…..The Long…..from Moscow……

      Jul 23, 2015 23:59 PM

      Dow closed off $119.

      But if you owned Amazon, you would be a happy camper!

    Jul 23, 2015 23:39 PM

    DONALD TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Finally…………….no more bullshit ????????????

      Jul 23, 2015 23:40 PM

      I THINK he will make a great President……better than HILLY OR JEB…………the CLAW

        Jul 23, 2015 23:05 PM

        Maybe better than Clinton or Bush, but a great president?

        Quite frankly the man scares me.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:41 PM

          Me to, that is why he would be great………we need a shock to the existing system.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:47 PM

            Yeah sure….lets put the Donald in charge of delicate foreign affairs and international political crisis. He is sure to say the wrong thing. The guy is a bull in a China shop. Cripes, he would be like the first guy to push the button when he does not get his way. Just what we don’t need.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:05 PM

            Listner, I think you give the position of president too much credit for influence.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:49 AM

            Foreign affairs……….Donald would be as good as Bill in foreign affairs…….after all his first wife was foreign born. As far as the guy pushing the button,,,,Putin, would know that THE DON, would not be that crazy, and I believe Putin would have far more respect for the Don ,than O bana the Kenyon………………………………….ootb claw

            Jul 24, 2015 24:51 AM

            And I think Putin would like to ride in DONALD’S JET…….party time…….have fun like OWL said……………………… 🙂

      Jul 23, 2015 23:04 PM

      I completely agree with the “no more bullshit” comment. I just wish the guy had a bit more class.

      His comment about John McCain (like or dislike Mr. McCain) calling him a non war hero because he did not die in the war was the epitome of tasteless.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:44 PM

        Like we have class with Obama, and Hilly, Billy, Nixon, Johnson, Carter(and billy beer)

          Jul 23, 2015 23:54 PM

          Point kind of well taken.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:43 PM

    The Volcker rule went into effect yesterday.
    I’m sure the banksters are peeved about that…

    http://time.com/3967380/volcker-rule/

      Jul 23, 2015 23:47 PM

      I GUESS this means Goldman might decide to not be bank……..?

        Jul 23, 2015 23:50 PM

        Trump should get elected and do a ………CLAW BACK ……..of all bankers assets, gained since 07, this would get the American’s attention..Especially , since he loves banks………………………………………………….CCF.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:06 PM

          How many has he stuck with his various bankruptcy actions?

          Not saying they are Lilly white, but neither is he!

            Jul 23, 2015 23:46 PM

            Remember…………Abe Lincoln went bust THREE TIMES………..

      CFS
      Jul 23, 2015 23:38 PM

      it has hit their bottom line as they have beeb reorganizing to prepare for the rule.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:55 PM

    WATCH OUT DONALD TRUMP………………………YOU MAY BE ASSASSINATED !!!!!!!!!!!!

      Jul 23, 2015 23:05 PM

      Mark:
      Presently reading “JFK and the Unspeakable” by James W. Douglas. Superb book and full of documented facts about the whys and who was involved with Kennedy’s assignation. I’ve been worrying about the same thing………namely your suggestion of that same act. However, I doubt personally if Trump would be the target. I’d be looking more for someone who would really turn things on their head and 180 degrees in the opposite direction. I still don’t see anyone on either side that would be that much threat to the entrenched PTB. JMO. Thanks for your comments.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:11 PM

        I HEAR YOU BUT…………..STAY TUNED………..IF THIS GUY KEEP’S TALKING IN FAVOR OF THE PEOPLE, THE BANKSTERS WILL KILL HIM…………….OR………….IS HE A BANKSTER!

          Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

          He has made a lot of money at the expense of others, hasn’t he?

            CFS
            Jul 23, 2015 23:40 PM

            so did Henry Ford.
            Giving the people what they need and can afford tends to enrich all.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

        Thanks for the tip on the book, Silverdollar!

          GH
          Jul 23, 2015 23:23 PM

          Great book. You can also find good videos with him on youtube.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:20 PM

          Al:
          Do yourself a favor. Read it. Glad I found it but don’t know why it never got much publicity. Upon 2nd thought, perhaps I do but better not say.

      Jul 23, 2015 23:07 PM

      Personally Mark, I think that he is doing it very effectively to himself.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:55 PM

    ………..THE MSM IS AGAINST YOU !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Tom
    Jul 23, 2015 23:57 PM

    Hi Charlie, What are your picks for the companies that will not be affected by the market breakdown as much….Thanks

      Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

      Tom, not investment advice but 3 outside of the PM and resource sectors are FEYE, XON, and NAT. I sold FEYE awhile back since I expected a correction which is occurring as we speak. This past week I wrote option in the money calls on NAT and XON since my technicals shouted correction which they both started today. I’ll buy back those options when I believe their correction has run their course. Of course, this is not investment advice but just info on what I’m personally doing. I’ve owned all 3 of these stocks and they all have had a nice run but with my expected pullback of the conventional markets, I believe they’ll be a good buy in the future. I especially like NAT since I believe it has further to run after it pulls back and they have a 10+% dividend.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:36 PM

        Drat Doc – I was hoping for XON back down to 30.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:42 PM

          Bob; I’m pretty sure we’ll get close to 50-52

            Jul 23, 2015 23:04 PM

            Good grief! I was following it daily until May and last looked at it as a serious buy when it was around 40.

            I was convinced that it would go down to low 30s though and took my eye off the ball around 45. I had no idea it had gone up that much. How wrong was I – drat 🙂

            Jul 23, 2015 23:04 PM

            I daren’t look at ZIOP.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

        Tom, I’ve also been following RIG for awhile and my interest is increasing. That would be my energy play.

          Tom
          Jul 24, 2015 24:54 AM

          Thanks Charlie

        Jul 23, 2015 23:09 PM

        Thanks, Doc!

        Tom
        Jul 24, 2015 24:06 AM

        What do you expect for earnings from NAT to be reported before the August 4 open of trading?

    Jul 23, 2015 23:00 PM

    ……………IS DONALD TRUMP WITH ALL OFF HIS BILLIONS TRULEY TESTING THE ELITE!

      Jul 23, 2015 23:11 PM

      I think that he is truly testing anyone who has assessed him accurately.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:03 PM

    IS THE SHIT ABOUT TO HIT THE FAN……………..THINK…………..?????????

      Jul 23, 2015 23:11 PM

      I don’t have to think about that one Mark. But remember, without shit you can’t grow a beautiful garden!

        Jul 23, 2015 23:14 PM

        That is truth.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:14 PM

    What is up with this Charlie, name reafering to Richard Doc?

    What am I missing here?

      Jul 23, 2015 23:14 PM

      Why does Al refer to Doc As Charlie?

      Jul 23, 2015 23:12 PM

      That is what all of his friends call him and have for a long time.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:19 PM

        How about Chuck? or Doctor Richard Postma = Dr. Dick P. ? 🙂

        We love ya Doc and hope one day we are cool enough to call you Charlie too!

    Jul 23, 2015 23:18 PM

    EVEN IF THE DON IS A MANUFACTURED PLANT !!!!!!!!!!!
    Are you really sure………………?????

      Jul 23, 2015 23:14 PM

      No after thinking about the article that made that point, I have to disagree with it.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:21 PM

    I was saying awhile back Trump could have a chance, people could have noticed how criminal Clintons and Bushes are.

    Trump as president wont make 1 iota of difference, he is there to give people the illusion of democracy, like their opinion counts somehow.

    If he becomes president it will be because he was placed in the position and it was planned long ago.

    People like the flamboyancy, his thinking on immigration, his ideas on war in the middle east.
    War, the military industrial complex will view him as fitting right in.
    He will continue the work of the TPTB. Nothing will change.

      Jul 23, 2015 23:32 PM

      At this very moment……..the govt for the people …….does not exist. I am betting that if her were in the WHITE HOUSE, some things would change for the better, because it sure can not get any worse.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:34 PM

        We know for sure, anyone in office right now…….is bought and paid for………..

          Jul 23, 2015 23:35 PM

          Only exception , might be Paul………but, I have a few problems with him……jmho

            Jul 23, 2015 23:37 PM

            Plus, I think he has all the money he needs, …and I do not think he is after the money.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:51 PM

            It can get worse.

            Jul 23, 2015 23:54 PM

            like how………

            Jul 23, 2015 23:17 PM

            What are your problems, Frank?

            GH
            Jul 23, 2015 23:41 PM

            I composed a response to this, but while accurate, it was so negative I decided not to post. Suffice it to say, Paul Craig Roberts is correct in his article on the decline of American character.

            It can get much, much worse, Frank from moscow. Just use your imagination. And it will, because the trajectory is clear, and it won’t turn on a dime.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:16 PM

        Not sure that I agree, Indy.

        By the way, we are discussing a book called, “The 5000 Year Miracle” at our discussion group. The author does have some misstatements in there but generally he makes some very good points!

          Jul 23, 2015 23:55 PM

          People keep going on about getting someone good to run for Pres.
          The only way to get someone good to run…Is to eliminate the bad ones who are running.
          Vote for Trump…….A month later we will all have missiles whistling above our heads.
          HaHa….The funny thing is His hair will be chasing them…

            Jul 23, 2015 23:13 PM

            Your fired…….would take on a brand new meaning………..

            Jul 23, 2015 23:22 PM

            Irish – I thought we decided to elect you for president last week?

            We are done with Lib-tards and Neo-Cons….so bring on the Lep-re-Cons!

            Jul 24, 2015 24:02 AM

            I’ve already written to Obama three times Shad!!

            Jul 24, 2015 24:17 AM

            funny Rev!

    Jul 23, 2015 23:41 PM

    yes, today our congress passed a Law which makes it impossible for States tenant labeling
    on GMOS in food products…. bought & paid for congress… what is monsanto afraid of…?

      Jul 23, 2015 23:07 PM

      Monsanto……..I just wish more people around the world, (& especially in the US would do more research as to who is behind this HUGE global company….I have & i can tell you it is scary….Solient Green comes to mind…..The movie….
      Get it folks…..One World Bank / One World Government / One World Farm…….
      The one fucking thing scary thing is….WE THE PEOPLE ARE ALLOWING IT TO HAPPEN.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

        DO not moderate my above comment.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:40 PM

          Monsanto…Is a bigger threat to the American people , than the FED…But only in name, Research find the answers….Not everybody has to spend…But everybody HAS to eat.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:59 PM

          I think it got moderated. What did you say Irish? (put it in code this time so it evades the moderation police).

    CFS
    Jul 23, 2015 23:52 PM

    silver on COMEX went down today, but silver bars physical went up!

      Jul 23, 2015 23:36 PM

      They seems to have trouble press silver down for many days. So gold silver ratio went down.

    CFS
    Jul 23, 2015 23:57 PM

    Meanwhile in the South China Seas:

    http://sputniknews.com/us/20150723/1024940954.html

    and the big zero continues to destroy the US fighting capability.

    CFS
    Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

    of course we knew this was coming:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11757017/White-House-in-final-stages-of-plan-to-close-Guantanamo-Bay-prison.html
    A big mistake, but if you don’t understand the motives of the dictator by now, you have not been watching.

    CFS
    Jul 23, 2015 23:12 PM

    Even the paper of record understands sometimes:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/26/magazine/is-this-the-end-of-christianity-in-the-middle-east.html?_r=2
    It’s what the emperor believes in, that counts.

    CFS
    Jul 23, 2015 23:19 PM

    But on the left coast the paper of record is a day late about a dollar short.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-calpers-misses-investment-target-20150713-story.html
    and this is the tip of the iceberg showing with at least a $2 trillion pension problem, amongst the funded pensions and we all know how good the government is at funding its promises!

    Jul 23, 2015 23:33 PM

    Irish- you miss the point
    Eat what??????

    Jul 23, 2015 23:31 PM

    TRUMP for PRESIDENT !!!!!! If he made a comment you don’t like just GET OVER IT CHILDREN and quit your little whining.
    Trump is the only candidate that has the balls to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

    Trump made a great comment in S.C. that I will paraphrase: These politicians, they maybe nice guys and they may talk to you for a few minutes, BUT THEY CAN’T FIX ANYTHING, THEY ARE A BUNCH OF CLOWNS looking for campaign money to get re-elected.

      Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

      Nonsense. Trump is trying to help his buddy Hillary by stirring things up for the Republicans.

      When Clinton last ran for office, Trump was torn between supporting her and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. ” They’re both terrific people, and I hope they both get the nomination,” he told CNN in 2007, adding that he thought Clinton would surround herself with good people to negotiate a deal with Iran. A year later, Trump wondered publicly why Clinton wasn’t chosen as President Obama’s running-mate.
      http://time.com/3962799/donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

    Jul 23, 2015 23:57 PM

    Oh sh*t….there goes gold. Looks like we are having that price capitulation after all. Breakdown to 1072 so far and still falling. It is no longer responding in ways that we have come to anticipate. The waterfall decline appears to be intact and in motion.

      Jul 23, 2015 23:18 PM

      Same time as Sunday’s attack……….late nite nobody around . Easy pickings…..

        Jul 23, 2015 23:29 PM

        Well my gold price prediction booklet is just not working this week. So its out the damn window for now. I am however in the mood for Guacamole and popcorn. I might just pick a couple Avocados, make a salad and pop up some buttery Orville’s and enjoy the show.

          Jul 23, 2015 23:51 PM

          you know Orville….was from Indiana…………..lol

            Jul 23, 2015 23:53 PM

            Is that where Guacamole was invented? I heard its actually an American creation, not Mexican at all.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:05 AM

            no, that is got ya a mole in ye yard

    Jul 23, 2015 23:08 PM

    Hey Matthew…..we are just a little more than a 100 dollars away from 968

    104 dollars to be exact as of this morning.

    You believe me now? (not trying to be irritating, but this is still a ferocious bear).

      Jul 23, 2015 23:13 PM

      But sugar is smoking hot. Just as predicted. Sorry CFS, my instincts were bang on the money on that call.

        Jul 23, 2015 23:18 PM

        If it gets to 968 maybe you can be Birdman again. 😉 lol

          Jul 23, 2015 23:13 PM

          lol

          Jul 23, 2015 23:58 PM

          Funny Matthew. 🙂

          Bird has been fairly accurate in the soft commodities like the Sugar call, and usually is pretty good with the Canadian Loonie as well. He has been much nicer and polite to everyone lately and it is refreshing, because I’ve always thought he was an intelligent guy and that has really shined through recently as “A Listener”.

          As for the 968 call he made over a year ago, we are actually getting close. I do think we may get as short-term bounce here and noted earlier this week that Gold would likely get back down near $1087 Fib or just under the $1080 recent low, double bottom, and bounce into August for a few weeks. I saw where Gold got down to $1078 (right under $1080) and then recovered and has been up near $1083-$1084 since dipping down there, so that could have been the short-term bottom, but I’m curious to see how things go in the pre-markets.

          While there is always the potential for a complete breakdown in Gold ($1067-$1065 support, $1044.70 support, or $993.20 support are my downside targets), I’d be very surprised to see Gold push down all the way to 968 on this move this summer.

          Personally, I’ve enjoyed talking to “A Listener” much more lately with the more kind and polite bedside manner towards other posters, and no personal attacks. However, I also agree that if Gold goes down to 968, that he should switch back to Birdman officially, and we’ll give credit where credit is due. I’ll tip my hat to him and give him a gold star for the good call. I’ll even smile if he calls me Mummy again, and cut him some slack, because I guess the good investing thoughts outweigh the swipes.

          Best to you both!

            Jul 23, 2015 23:48 PM

            Oh that’s who he is Shad I wondered where he’d gone. Long may Dr Jekyll keep his bedside manner!!

            Jul 23, 2015 23:55 PM

            Yes, hopefully everyone can continue to be civil and collaborative moving forward.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:35 AM

            Sugar was nothing, Shad. A kid could have made that call. Maybe you missed my dollar / euro reversal comments of a few days back that I left in the early hours of the day. I picked off the turn within an hour of it taking place and the Euro subsequently went on to move up over a hundred pips.

            THAT was a good call.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:19 AM

            Yes, I saw the Euro call as well. You are usually on it in regards to currencies. Do you trade on Forex at all?

            Jul 24, 2015 24:33 AM

            You could say its my cup of tea.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:49 AM

            Well you do well steeping the currency tea. The central banks are serving up a strange brew…..

          Jul 24, 2015 24:31 AM

          On a high note, Matthew, this just means we are finally closing in a price bottom that should finally hold. So that is reason for optimism. Doc is thinking in the next four months we will be ready for prime time again. I really don’t know so I won’t make that prediction. But hitting 968 will be just a few months work if its the number. If we had to estimate the final low and put it inside a 120 day time frame then anything from 850 to 1050 is entirely possible now. And anyway, what’s a hundred bucks the way this thing has been falling lately!!

            Jul 24, 2015 24:24 AM

            Agreed that a $100 move (10%) at this point isn’t the end of the world, and before this Bear is over $850-$1050 is a very reasonable range. Personally, I’d be surprised to see Gold take out $890-$891 as that is the 61.8% Fib retracement from $252.80 in 1999 to $1920 in 2011, and also the previous 1980 high. The high $900’s seem most likely, and I like that $993.20 peak from Feb 20th, 2009 as a potential turning point. Prior to that $1044.70 may be a strong support level.

            It will be interesting to see how it shakes out as we are getting closer to capitulation.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:56 AM

            For the record, gold is still closer to my 1125 than your 968. Don’t count yer birdies before they hatch! 😮

            Jul 24, 2015 24:04 AM

            Mark A. has been expecting the 1044 area, btw.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:31 AM

            Yes. Mark A. and I were both in harmony on the $1044 level since February.
            ________________________________________

            On February 17, 2015 at 3:41 pm,
            Shad says:

            I agree that this upcoming bounce will likely not take out 1308 due to how hard Gold has fallen. I even question whether it will take out 1259 or 1272 now. My bigger concern will be the further grind down to the test the lows once we get a bounce. I think 1180 and 1137 are back on the menu for the spring/summer major bottom as support, then 1044.70 from (Oct 30th, 2009) then $993.20 from (Feb 20th, 2009). I think Gold missed a big opportunity to change the tide in late Jan/early Feb.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:51 AM

            Geez, I had almost forgotten. That 1125 was indeed your call for an absolute bottom if I am not mistaken. But sellers cut through it like butter during last Sunday nights overnight trading when PM’s all got put through the commodities garberator.

            Who the heck knows what’s in store at this stage. I might just get humiliated over my call if gold slices through 968 and goes straight to Ricks 817. In which case Rick gets the feather and not me!

            Damn!

            Jul 24, 2015 24:02 AM

            I actually never said I was sure about gold having bottomed but have been much more confident that silver has. It’s getting close.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:07 AM

            What’s your read on the HUI Matthew? I think its got to run to 86 minimum before it hits bottom but maybe you can get better clues with the Stockcharts tools.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:25 AM

            This old chart suggests more like 100 – at least in the very short term. Check out that RSI reading (below 30 is oversold).
            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p61811828268&a=364007429

            Jul 24, 2015 24:26 AM
            Jul 24, 2015 24:07 PM

            I was thinking much longer term. Have a look at this one going all the way back to 1996 and you get a better feel for what I think is in store. To me its doubtful we have bottomed on this cycle as some are already asserting. But I agree 99 to 100 is in store shortly. We are really not that far off the lows of year 2000 though.

            NYSE ARCA GOLD BUGS INDEX — Yahoo Interactive
            http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^hui+Interactive#{%22range%22:%22max%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}

            Jul 24, 2015 24:20 PM

            What I mean is, this is not over until we retrace virtually 100% of the rise that came after year 2000. The chart tells it that way to my eyes. So we can almost estimate where the bottom will come in time as well since both the rise and fall are fairly symmetrical and balanced. We are not therefore at golds true bottom until the HUI chart falls to at least 86 dollars or lower. I guess my point is; we are so near the end we can smell it but we have work remaining before the end comes. Several months at least and that does line up with Docs idea that we still have at least 4 more months to go before gold finally gets bullish again (although I don’t know his method to arrive at a similar conclusion).

            Jul 24, 2015 24:11 PM

            By the way, 1125 was your bottom call (or the worst case scenario as you put it.) You have been saying that since 2013. So you get lots of credit for consistency. I recalled it well enough to find the first instance of the comment. Birdman bet you a bottle of wine you would be wrong by the way but you never took the bait.
            —————————–

            On December 23, 2013 Matthew says:

            We have a near consensus among gold experts that gold is going to $1,000 (or lower)… With so many lemming followers sidelined in anticipation of this price target, what are the odds that gold actually gets there? I’ll stick with my $1,155-$1,125 worst case scenario.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:37 PM

            The fact that I did not take the bet should tell you something but, yes, I did think that level would hold. However, in 2015, I have said several times that I was not sure that area would hold and that I felt much better about silver holding above its 2014 low.
            So far so good on that, but I might be wrong very soon.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:39 PM

            Btw, it is “interesting” that it took a $2.7 billion dump in very thin trading to break my worst case scenario.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:29 PM

            Actually, I agree with you on that point. It ruined my 1130 call as well so we were both left paddling the same sinking boat that day. The consensus seems to be that someone was playing bad in the dirty end of the pool. Now that the spine of gold has been broken though the charts have turned decidedly more bearish. A week or two down the road most will have forgotten about those contracts that flooded the market in the wee hours of Monday but the analysts and technicians will be using the chart data just as though that event was a normal part of market operations.

    Jul 23, 2015 23:17 PM

    Ok, I’ll go ahead and say it.
    Monsanto is a company that is ruled by the corporation,, the corporation that wants , and IS controlling, You! They control you by what you eat and drink. The funniest thing they do is to control how you , think. And it’s quite funny you think it’s not true, , which proves that you are controlled , on how you think.
    Oops, did I day too much? ( darn the good luck )!

    Jul 23, 2015 23:29 PM

    Is it not funny as hell..? We ain’t heard a peep out of Glen Downs… The reason why is, cause Rand Paul is a spook, just like the rest of the Republican Party. The people are done with the made-up main-stream bull shit lies!

    EVERYONE RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IS A CORPORATE BULL SHIT LIAR!
    Each and every one of them!

    C’mon Downs, what ya got? Nada!

    You goofballs are spooks trying to start war!
    You ain’t got nuthin, bud..

    I’m ” not ” a democrat. Never have been .

      Jul 23, 2015 23:50 PM

      Repeal the act of 1871, or shut up!

        Jul 23, 2015 23:58 PM

        If you were a true Republican, you would have a true ” Republic “

          Jul 23, 2015 23:24 PM

          I wonder how many people in congress got stock certificates in the ” four companies ” that control the health care system?? Kinda good to be in a monopoly, and the corporation.
          It’s funny how the American people put up with this. But hey, they are students of the boob tube…
          But back to the issue. You guys are controlling a monopoly, the health care system. I guess that you can’t control derivatives any longer in the banking system, then you have to control the health care system. ( clever. …not… )

      Jul 24, 2015 24:09 AM

      Well said……Chartster………..I agree…………………….the Claw ccf,ootb the long

    Jul 24, 2015 24:14 AM

    Dear Doc:
    Falling wedges how can you tell if it is a bullish or bearish one?
    It usually gets called a bullish falling wedge but if it subsequently breaks down it gets called bearish!
    Are there some subtle differences between the bullish and bearish versions?
    I am wondering if you can tell anything fro the degree of narrowing of the wedge.
    Alternatively, perhaps median line analysis could tall you whether the highs are falling or the lows are rising relative to the median line slope.
    Any thoughts?

      Jul 24, 2015 24:26 AM

      Now I have taken a look at some more examples of falling wedge patterns I note that many examples online have a falling wedge occurring in a longer term uptrend and then they interpret the pattern as bullish, so it becomes a continuation pattern in a sense in terms of the overall trend.

      However, this gold falling wedge comes after a general downmove, so does that make it mire likely to have a bearish outcome?

        Jul 24, 2015 24:32 AM

        Here is an interesting bearish falling wedge example that had a rising wedge inside it – Japanese Yen:
        http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/xjy-day1.png

          Jul 24, 2015 24:57 AM

          Looking at Google images I can find very few examples of bearish outcomes from falling wedges but one is particularly interesting given the relationship betwenb gold and the Yen recently:

          http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/xjy-day1.png

          Before I clicked on the above linked image, I guessed that pattern might be an early 1980s or mid-1980s gold chart but it was the Yen from 2013 to 2015 which has been positively correlated with the falls in gold but has already broken aggressively to the downside. Gold may be in the process of following perhaps? In previous moves, the Yen has usually led gold:

          The gold pattern for 2013-2015 is similar and the falling wedge contains two pennants, both of which have gone to the downside:

          Compare with the weekly chart of gold (from stockcharts.com and annotated):

          http://1000gold.blogspot.com/2015/07/falling-wedge-of-gold-is-similar-to.html

          It does not look good.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:05 AM

            It does not look gold for gold based on this analysis.

            Possible target from breakdown on pennant number 3 using 1135 and 1308 as starting prices and 1160 as the apex of is pennant:

            1160-(1307-1135)=$988 gold

            Jul 24, 2015 24:29 AM

            If gold behaves as the Japanese Yen did, it will fall out of the falling wedge by the approximate original width of the wedge ($250) and would therefore go from $1080 to $830.

            (Previous drops in gold have been $of that order ($270), the first one being from 1590 to 1320 on 12-15 April 2013 and a second one from $1430 back to $1180 in late 2013. That might support a new trading range from $830 to $1080 perhaps?

            You could actually use $270 as the original height of the wedge so the target for the low would then be $810.

            WOW and it could mean that Rick’s target of $817 is more or less confirmed by another method.

            Jul 24, 2015 24:11 AM

            I guess technicals are the best method to predict the prices of stocks because 90% of trades are done by computers algos

    LFP
    Jul 24, 2015 24:11 AM

    Gold traded @ 1076.77 USD @ 22.05 pm NYT [10 hours ago].
    Presently [8.10 am NY time] @ 1078.67.

    COMEX in 10 min – fireworks time in the vampires’ pit.

    Next support line is 1043.90 set Febr., 2010 [not a typo – 2010 [

    LFP
    Jul 24, 2015 24:18 AM

    Reposting: 5 minutes now & nothing showing ????

    gold traded @ 1076.77 @ 22.05 am NY time [10+ hrs ago]
    trading now [ 8.17 am NY time] @ 1079.16

    COMEX pop/dump should have lots of legs

    Jul 24, 2015 24:38 AM

    Scary, gold/XAU is over 23. It mean while gold came down 44% from the peak and large gold stocks came down 88%. If gold came down 50%, are they going to 0? It make no sense. They are now much lower than gold was $250!!!

    Jul 24, 2015 24:16 AM

    Keep your eyes on TCK….it has plummeted 55% in the past 90 days and is well on its way to testing multi-year lows that I happen to think are a major signal for the bottom of the metals markets.

      Jul 24, 2015 24:36 AM

      It is Nickel and Zinc I think, right?

        LFP
        Jul 24, 2015 24:57 AM

        TCK= Teck Resouces Limited

        Jul 24, 2015 24:54 PM

        Here is the chart I was referring to Lawrence. This company is one of my proxies on the metals markets more generally but it comes in handy as a guide to finding where gold will bottom. We will have to drop another 50% or so to arrive at the multi year low point of $3.45 last seen in February 2009. That is 6.5 years back. Maybe think in terms of the 7 year stock cycle to get an idea of what my thinking is here where commodities are concerned.

        Anyway, a 100% retrace back to the old bottom is coming up fast so its will pay to be prepared in the next few months. I think it represents a major turning point although I do NOT believe we will get a V shaped bounce. Actually, price could get stuck in a range along the bottom for months but we won’t want to miss the chance to pick up this company and others like it (in my opinion only of course) once we get closer.

        Teck Resources Limited (TCK) NYSE list ….(also lists in Toronto, Lawrence)
        http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TCK+Interactive#{%22range%22:%2210y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}