GDP numbers yet again revised downward.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
From CNBC: “Homeownders Drowning in Debt” and
“GDP a dud but gives Fed inflation glimmer it needs”
What do you all think about all of this “good news”?
Good interview guys – Gold is a bit perplexing at these levels as well. Personally I thought we’d have a bounce underway at this point once Gold dipped down below $1080 twice to $1076 and $1072, and then recovered. However, we are stuck in a range and it looks indecisive. The US Dollar has also continued to rise lately, and I would expect it to pull back down towards the 94 support. Very strange action lately in the markets.
Good luck everyone in your investing.
This video is worth a quick watch. Jordan has been fairly accurate lately in his analysis, and comes at some of the different data from an interesting perspective.
Precious Metals Market Update: What’s Next for Gold, Gold Miners & Stocks?
Jordan Roy-Byrne July 27, 2015
http://palisaderadio.com/precious-metals-market-update-whats-next-for-gold-gold-miners-stocks/
“Manipulation”……………..being saying that for 6 yrs……or longer.
FFM..the manipulation in the gold market is coming from the bullion banks…they actually write contracts for naked shorts, with absolutely no gold on hand to back it up, and dump it on the market..the fed and authorities look the other way because it is accomplishing what they wanted to…this will continue indefinitely and has nothing to do with physical overcoming paper..anyone in precious metals will continue to get taken to the cleaners until this practice is stopped…
gator…..I think you are correct……..Craig Paul Roberts was saying the exact same thing yesterday at usawatchdog. What is funny, the gold market is the only market that supposed NAKED SHORT are happening. WONDER what BOB M. has to say about the NAKED SHORT comment from CRAIG PAUL ROBERTS.
FFM: Bob M would say I have proof that PCR has never traded a single commodity contract in his life. He doesn’t even know how they work. I like PCR and respect him a lot but he’s blowing smoke when he uses the words “naked short.”
Perhaps you can define “naked short” and tell me what a naked short is in an S&P or Dow futures.
Metals trader explains fraudulent metals shorting:
http://www.gata.org/node/8466
Fined $44 m ,Barclays options trader explains how he manipulated price of gold:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/how-a-barclays-options-trader-manipulated-the-gold-price-fix
As we explained in previous articles on this subject, the price of gold is not determined in markets where physical gold is bought and sold but in the paper futures market where contracts trade and speculators place bets on the price of gold. Most of the contracts traded on the Comex futures market are settled in cash. The value of the contracts used to short gold and drive down the price is well in excess of the actual amount of physical gold that is kept on the Comex and available for delivery. One might think that regulators would pay attention to a market in which the value of contracts outstanding exceeds by several multiples the amount of physical gold available for delivery.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-gold-market-insider-trading-and-financial-terrorism-on-comex/5391725
HELLO BOB, thanks for replying, I truly appreciate your response. Btw, I have read and listened to you for over 10 yrs. And applaud you by your call on the top of the silver at $49.
My purpose for even mentioning NAKED SHORTS…..is to clarify conversation of respected individuals for the benefit of the community going forward.
Since, you say you have PROOF……..Would you kindly submit the proof.
SECONDLY, ……to the question… “he doesn’t know how they work”.
I would have agreed with you a week ago, when the subject was brought up. And you were kind enough to share your knowledge as a past stock broker.
A week later, the question at this point is……….ROBERTS SAY……”NAKE SHORT”, are naked shorts in other areas, ie. stocks and commodities……but, NOT in gold and silver.
SO, lets ONLY address,…GOLD AND SILVER “NAKED SHORTS”. or as I think you said last week there is no such thing as a naked short. Either way, since you and Roberts disagree, and I do not really know for sure, I would appreciate that you might just listen to what Roberts had to say at usawatchdog.
In order so that we might have the same conversation concerning the definition, of naked short, as defined , by you, the market, or by Roberts. I think a meeting of the
minds might be in order.
If , you will kindly listen to ROBERTS at usawatchdog, …at about the 30 min mark, we might possibly get on the same meeting of minds.
Maybe, the Terminology is MISPLACED., not correct in it “real world” usage.
or, JUST the simple idea that in the GOLD AND SILVER trade, the term naked short
is really not a TRUE FACT in gold and silver.
Thank you in advance for your time and response.
Respectfully
Wondering minds want to know
J. the Long or FFM (one and the same subject to the hour)
Maybe I should have said………….commodities broker, not stock broker…….sorry
BOB……..is see below………you say, again…….”there is no such thing as a NAKED SHORT”,
YES OR NO……..
FFM:
PCR has it exactly wrong in the interview with USAGold. There are naked shorts in the stock market. That is, just like banks creating money, you sell shares you don’t own or have borrowed. It’s illegal and disruptive but done.
The purpose of commodity markets is to determine the correct price at any given time for a commodity. He is wrong saying hedge funds hedge and speculators bet on price.
If you are a farmer growing wheat, you are going to produce 1,000,000 bushels this year. You are naturally concerned with having enough money to plant next year. So when the price gets high enough to guarantee you a profit for this year, you hedge your position by selling 1/4 or 1/2. You are hedging a natural product you control. If you have the wheat in storage, you can sell the contract with no margin. Literally you are creating a contract out of thin air but you possess the product. Before the contract expires, you are required to either deliver the contract or buy it back with cash.
All farmers hedge. But commodity markets were set up 2000 years ago to allow speculators to place bets. Speculators provide the liquidity to allow the true hedgers to sell a product at any time. You provide the correct price to both the hedgers and the speculators.
The same is true of consumers. If you make bread, you can buy futures to lock in a price that you are comfortable with. Naturally you do not have the commodity so you have to put up and maintain a cash margin.
The other group participating on futures are the speculators. They want to make money guessing what the price of wheat might be in the future. If they think it will go down, they sell. If they think it will go up, they buy. But the key element here is that contrary to what PCR suggests in USAWatchdog, they are totally at risk. If you buy gold at 1100 and it drops to 1080, you get a margin call to bring up your margin to the maintenance level. Likewise if you short gold at 1130 and instead of dropping it rises $50, you get a margin call.
If you buy or sell a futures contract
1. You are at risk for the entire value of the contract. If you are long and it drops, you must maintain margin. If you are short and it goes up, you must maintain margin.
2. You have to cover the contract or deliver before expiration. Note that there is no legal or moral requirement for you to deliver or to be able to deliver. There is a legal requirement for you to maintain a certain published margin. If you do not, you will be sold out. There are no naked shorts and there are no uncovered contracts. You either cover with the commodity or you cover with cash. You are always on the hook. You can be on the hook for more than the initial value of the contract. If you short gold at $1080 and an earthquake hits San Francisco and the transportation system in the US stops and gold goes to $3000 overnight, you will be sold out if you do not cover or put up margin.
SO,,,,,,,you say………there are NAKED SHORTS IN THE STOCK MARKET…….
BOB…….Question.
Can there be a NAKED SHORT ………in the commodities market.
just want to clarify. YES OR NO.
Gator: You need to talk to a commodity broker. If you dump 1000 contracts of anything on any market right now and it moves the market down X, you are required to buy back those same 1000 contracts before the contract expires and that will naturally move the market up X.
There is no such thing as a naked short or any legal or moral obligation to have gold to back up a gold short any more than there is to have shares to back up an S&P short. The guys talking “naked short” are doing nothing but advertising that they don’t know the commodity markets are a zero-sum market. One buyer for every seller.
Corn, iron, copper and platinum are down a lot more than gold. Is that “proof” that they too are manipulated.
Your comments are appreciated Bob.
BOB, many things you talk about are hard to digest for most folks because they are diametrically opposed to and shatter long held illusions.
In general what we have is a distorted belief system that is used to fit into a predetermined narrative. Humans for the most part always gravitate to talking points that fit the world view they want to believe.
The PM sectors shifting foundation is filled with a multitude of boiling frogs that can’t come to grips with the fables and story’s they were told years ago may in-fact contain a high degree and large quantity of outright BS.
As for PCR, I love the guy because he represents the type of a man that once made America great. You can tell he truly means well and wants to provide the public a clearer picture of the world. But you are right, he really doesn’t know how the internal mechanics of the modern markets actually work and what truly goes on behind the scenes in modern Americas financial alchemy of lies. Having said that, I still believe he’s one of the good guys.
Its utterly amazing what the social engineers have done to the American population in its multi-decade dumbing-down agenda. The average person really has no damn idea whether their coming or going.
V
Bob is not listening or says what he wants to hear.
Lets give Bob credit because he knows what he is talking about.
Metals trader explains fraudulent metals shorting:
http://www.gata.org/node/8466
Fined $44 m ,Barclays options trader explains how he manipulated price of gold:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/how-a-barclays-options-trader-manipulated-the-gold-price-fix
As we explained in previous articles on this subject, the price of gold is not determined in markets where physical gold is bought and sold but in the paper futures market where contracts trade and speculators place bets on the price of gold. Most of the contracts traded on the Comex futures market are settled in cash. The value of the contracts used to short gold and drive down the price is well in excess of the actual amount of physical gold that is kept on the Comex and available for delivery. One might think that regulators would pay attention to a market in which the value of contracts outstanding exceeds by several multiples the amount of physical gold available for delivery.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-gold-market-insider-trading-and-financial-terrorism-on-comex/5391725
The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating at least 10 major banks for possible rigging of precious-metals markets, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people close to the inquiries.
DoJ prosecutors are scrutinizing the price-setting process for gold, silver, platinum and palladium in London, while the CFTC has opened a civil investigation, the newspaper said.
The banks are HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays Plc, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Societe Generale, Standard Bank Group Ltd and UBS Group AG, the Journal
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/us-usa-banks-probe-idUSKBN0LS07P20150224
The US futures market is not a substitute for the cash market:
By this time, the CFTC became concerned that the silver positions held by the Hunts and the Conti group were “too large relative to the size of the U. S. and world silver markets.” Subscribing to the philosophy that the futures market was not a substitute for the cash market, the commission determined that the time had come to stop Bunker’s perverse buying spree. A meeting to decide what to do was set for January 8, 1980.
Then the Comex stepped in. On January seventh, the exchange announced new position limits restricting traders to no more than 10,000,000 ounces’ worth of futures contracts. The effective date of the limits was set for February 18.
The day after the Comex announcement, the CFTC announced that it was backing the exchanges new limits.
The boards of both the Chicago and the New York exchanges were composed not only of “outside” directors but also of representatives of the major, usually Eastern-based brokerage houses. Later testimony would reveal that nine of the 23 Comex board members held short contracts on 38,000,000 ounces of silver. With their 1 .88-billion-dollar collective interest in having the price go down, it is easy to see why Bunker (lid not view them as objective regulators. At the same time, though, the C.B.O.T. restrictions made Bunker even more bullish on silver, because, as he put it, “they show a silver shortage exists.”
By this time, the CFTC became concerned that the silver positions held by the Hunts and the Conti group were “too large relative to the size of the U. S. and world silver markets.” Subscribing to the philosophy that the futures market was not a substitute for the cash market, the commission determined that the time had come to stop Bunker’s perverse buying spree. A meeting to decide what to do was set for January 8, 1980.
Then the Comex stepped in. On January seventh, the exchange announced new position limits restricting traders to no more than 10,000,000 ounces’ worth of futures contracts. The effective date of the limits was set for February 18.
The day after the Comex announcement, the CFTC announced that it was backing the exchanges new limits.
The next day, the price of silver plunged to $34, a drop of ten dollars in a single day.
Matt:
You are not listening. First of all, all financial markets are manipulated both legally and illegally. So saying a specific market is manipulated is just as meaningful as saying the moon rises in the East. Perfectly true and perfectly meaningless at the same time.
Running the stops is a classic move in commodities. If you are a big player and want to move the market higher the first thing you do is dump a bunch of contracts short. That takes out everyone with close stops. It’s perfectly legal, done all the time and anyone who knows commodities knows all about it. Then you cover your position and buy a lot more. Perfectly legal and done every single day in all markets.
Andrew McGuire is a typical GATA hanger-on. According to his wife, he didn’t work for Goldman as he claimed and wasn’t a trader. That said, he tells people what they want to hear and that’s all you need today to be successful.
In the case he talked about JPM would have flushed out the shorts, covered their position and made a lot of money on the trade. They were doing nothing more than what all of us would like to do and don’t have the money. But they didn’t sell “naked shorts” and they would have covered their shorts and gone long.
Playing commodities is not like going down to an ATM and drawing out money. Too many “advisors” want their followers to believe that it’s as simply as dollar goes down, gold goes up. At any given time you probably have 25,000 people watching every contract and everyone of them wants to take your money.
If you are listening to all the noise coming from the guys selling subscriptions to noise, your chances of winning are near zero.
But if there was a totally manipulated market controlled by the Fed, JPM and Goldman Sachs, why would anyone in their right mind bet against them? That’s just as stupid as saying LTCM had a losing gold short position when gold was the lowest price in 18 years. It’s just not possible.
Matt: If you are capable of thinking for yourself, maybe perhaps you are also capable of listening.
Ask yourself a couple of questions. 1. How many shares are available for delivery on S&P futures contracts? and 2. If you don’t need shares for delivery on an S&P Futures contract, why would you need gold for delivery on a gold futures contact?
The way magicians and con men work is to distract you with something meaningless. It’s true that people short gold without the ability or intention to deliver. But so what, there is no requirement to have either the ability or intention to deliver any more than there is a requirement to pay for a gold contract if you buy a future. The purpose of the market is to determine the correct price and you don’t need to back up the contracts with gold any more than you need to back up an S&P contract with shares.
Do you want to make money in the markets or do you want to have your fantasies filled?
The Hunt Brothers pretty much cornered silver, the commercials were going broke and the government changed the rules. I’m shocked. The government changed the rules to help their buddies. Who could have guessed?
Bob M..I was a commodity broker in the 70’s and witnessed contract lots dumped on the market to drive it down only to trip stops and then buy it back at a lower price..it was a requirement at that time that you have in your possession or have access to the commodity you were shorting..if you were shorting stocks then you must borrow or own the shares to go short..I believe currently the term naked is used for bullion banks that dump gold on the market to drive the price lower without having actual possession of the gold. The practice is illegal but not enforced. Things may have changed since the 70’s and I will admit that I have not kept as current as I should and rely on the contacts I have in the industry to keep me somewhat informed. You and Matt are probably more up to speed than I am on the subject. I apologize for any misleading information that I may have posted.
Gator: You are confusing shares with futures. There is not and never has been any requirement to have possession or have access to any commodity to short it.
If you wanted to do it with no margin, you had to have access but if you wanted to speculate either long or short, all you had to do was put up and maintain margin.
Some scammer made up the term “naked short” when it was used with commodities. If a bullion bank wants to dump 10,000 contracts and they have the margin, they can and do not need gold. But what you totally fail to mention is that if they sell 10,000 contracts they are required to buy those contracts back so in fact it’s a wash.
Yes, gold was manipulated in a clear and convincing way 10 days ago and it almost certainly was legal and designed to run the stops. But all financial markets are manipulated.
I welcome the day that the US Fed and associates no longer destroy the competing currencies with paper contracts. The issue is that gold and silver have been and are global currencies and price should be decided on a physical exchange.The Singapore and Shanghai exchanges might assist to this end.The correct price of gold and silver is one that can never be described as you suggest,Bob.
Gator , I think your post was informative.
I can see that BOB,
is saying, ………”no need to have possession or have access to”.(KEY WORDS)
Bob are you saying. …”SCAMMERS use the term NAKED SHORT”
YES OR NO.
WHO manipulates the future contracts……..the terminology means nothing at this juncture , manipulation is proven and the commodities are not a true value of the SUPPLY AND DEMAND , that ROBERTS WAS referring to in his piece at usawatchdog.
The terminology of NAKED SHORT…..a misused term, used by scammers of which I do not believe ROBERTS is one. Only, recognizes the artful deception of the smoke and mirrors all markets have become…………….liars, cheats and thieves rule at this time.
I think this is what Roberts is saying……………..nothing more nothing less…
JMHO………………………………………………….JOOTB.
FFM: The way this site inserts comments makes it hard to understand who responded to what when so if this is redundant, forgive me.
If you want to short shares in the stock market, in theory you are required to borrow shares to make the trade. Some crooked brokers will allow sales of shares in a short without borrowing them. In effect they have created the shares out of thin air. It’s called naked shorting and totally illegal but done. So in the stock market it is possible to sell shares that you don’t own and can’t deliver.
In commodities each position, long or short is offset by an equal and opposite position. For you to short, someone has to take the other side and go long. For you to go long, someone has to be willing to sell. Each side either maintains margin or in the case of physical commodities such as gold or wheat or eggs, if you have possession you can short without margin. But here is the key. If you don’t have the commodity, you have to put up the published margin and maintain it at the published rate should it go against you. The concept that someone could simply dump contracts on the market and didn’t have to put up margin simply can’t happen.
So if someone is talking about futures and commodity trading and they use the term “naked short” they don’t understand how commodities work and you can pretty much ignore them on that subject.
I like PCR a lot but he is 100% wrong about naked shorts with the stock market where they really do exist and naked shorts in commodity markets where they can’s exist.
BOB……..THANKS APPRECIATE the extra time in explaining the difference…….FFM
7.5 million………underwater is a negative………..I agree with the OWL……..
As for JNUG – It appears the MACD is crossing in a bullish way. Anyone have any thoughts?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p60746718580
stay nimble…………………
😉
I think all they’re doing is getting momentum up to dig a bigger hole. Got fooled once again, bought some NUGT last Tuesday. Now I’m stuck, but hoping we get a bounce just so I can get my money back before it’s too late. Does anyone have any hope?
Last week, it seemed like the metals had double-bottomed and may bounce, but that has not happened. It also looked like the US dollar would keep heading lower, and that didn’t happen either (which would have taken some weight off the metals and let them rise). At this point – it is range-bound and directionless. I was planning for a bump into August before another slump, but it is possible that Gold may just ratchet down through $1076-$1072 recent lows and take a nosedive.
If JNUG will break through this $8.24 area of support and dive further, I’m considering going in around $8 bucks or below for an end of the day rally. We’ll see how it goes….
Good luck to you Jane!
While I was writing it just broke through. Watching JNUG like a hawk now for a potential safari kill : – )
go Cecillllllllllllllllllllllll
Gold also back to $1087 so that’s not looking very positive at present.
Very screwy Gold action just whipsawing back and forth in a range from $1084- $1094.
I’m hoping they have one of those huge momentum rallies to help them along, and hoping it comes tomorrow, so maybe I’ll still have time to get out.
What price do you need to get out with a wash? Sometimes JNUG and JDST reverse hard in the last 30 minutes (or lately in the last 10 minutes of regular trading). Stay vigilant.
jnug has to drop own further imo shad.stochastics are still embedded (neutral to bearish)jnug could very easily drop to $6.1 few points shy of the long term supporting trendline.I deducted wave A(9.80 – 6.92 =2.88) of the symmetrical triangle from the breaking point(8.98).gl buddy
Good thoughts Don Corleone. Yes I agree that the Slow Stochastics were not confirming a buy, but the MACD cross got my attention. Longer term it still has lower to fall, but I’m wondering if there will be a rally into Friday?
I still may try jumping in to JNUG for a day trade if we break below this $8.24 level down closer to $8 or below, for an end of the day reversal rally. It looks a bit risky still at this point, and could break either way at this point.
jnug has broken out of the consolidation and the path that it has taken is to the downside.I will stay on the sidelines for clearer confirmation if I were you or else scale in if you are so convinced but dont go all in.At this stage all entries will be profitable but the nearer you can get to the bottom the better an my technicals are telling to wait a bit more.
Agreed Doc C. I wasn’t going all in today as I typically have 30-40 trades on at a time and follow a number of different sectors outside of PMs. I’m just waiting for a little more of a breakdown today for a quick in and out trade on JNUG because it can make such a big swing in one day. Watching at present….
dippity do dah……
OK I just went in at $7.95 in JNUG….come on and bounce baby!!
Out at $8.11. Not much of a bounce……but oh well.
you do that many trades in one day? I only do one trade at a time, easier to focus on one trade than many trades. Besides, I only have one computer. Good Luck!
Hi Jane. I only do about 2-4 trades a day (sometimes more sometimes none), but I generally have about 30-40 positions in place (some are longer term and some are swing trades for 2 days to 3 weeks). So many of the trades are staggered and so there are a few each day getting ready to make a profit, or that may need to get out of to limit a loss. I was just reassuring Don Corleone that I never go “all in” on just 1 trade. Even if I’m doing a Larger trade, then I”ll typically tier into it in 2-3 steps and not go all in at once. Normally though, I am doing lots of smaller trades, or averaging up/down into a position over time, and then averaging back out of it on strength.
Stay out might be better.
You’re probably right, but I’m getting itchy trigger fingers…. : – )
Transports are setting up to breakout huge. The destruction in commodities is going to fuel the next leg up in US equities.
Mining companies are getting destroyed, by CB design IMO. We are seeing capital flight into the US based on nothing more than relative tightness in monetary policy. As long as foreign central banks are willing to coordinate with the Fed, there is zero chance of a stock market correction in the US.
One thesis I had that looks like it about to go down in flames is that the S&P could not advance to new highs unless the Fed further expanded its balance sheet. Looks like I am about to be proven wrong. The CBs really are in total and complete control, and as long as they are all conspiring and coordinating together, there is nothing that can stop them.
Short of some radical political upheavel at a superpower, there is nothing that will break this cycle other than the CBs deciding they want to flip the capital flow switch, which could be 20 years from now.
The transportation index does look ready for a decent bounce but I don’t think it will go very far.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=W&yr=9&mn=3&dy=0&id=p43415818579&a=409753938
8800 looks like a good area for quite a bit of resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59619185097&a=409752559
I think you are wrong. The weekly RSI has been in a surreal tightness unlike anything I have ever seen. During that time, the momentum oscillators, like MACD, have been worked back down to neutral and looked poised to head back up for another huge leg up.
It’s not just the Fed that has your back, it is every CB on earth. US equities are headed to infinity. The worst you will see is sideways consolidation.
I could absolutely be wrong but I don’t see anything surreal about the weekly RSI. If the transports manage a new high, I think it will be just barely.
The CBs have their owners’ backs. Valuations still matter, don’t kid yourself. There is no reason why both markets and currencies won’t plunge together as real economic activity crashes.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=11&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46306943401&a=409753216&listNum=1
CBs can do their thing for a while, but not forever, and not for 20 more years, in my opinion. There are just too many contradictions in the markets for it to last that long. US equities to infinity?? That implies the US dollar to zero. Rather extreme viewpoint. Sooner or later things will reverse, just as they always have.
ANYTHING TO SAVE THE DOLLAR…………………REMEBER, they have to save their golf game for the weekend!
I think we need to see at least 2:1 SPX:GOLD ratio before we can consider a top in equities and a bottom in gold. I’ll start buying gold again when i see 2:1
Gary said after the FOMC MEETING stocks would go down.
They have been up three straight days.
Gary was expecting a huge bounce this week in gold, didn’t get it
Listen to his past interviews and make up you’re mind
Trading around these FOMC meetings is pure gambling. What a sick joke they have made of the markets.
I was anticipating a fairly healthy bounce too, James. But alas it was not to be despite so many down days in a row and extremes in oversolds. Some days the stars just don’t line up the way we would like them too even when almost all the indicators point to a conclusion in our favour.
Well, we did get a bounce, “huge” is relative.
Let’s not pretend.
Gold is basically where it was after the Sunday night take down and his bounce was for a huge, huge rally (his words not mine) into $1200s plus 40% moves in miners.
DITTO ON the same place…….as last Sunday…….
The Fed changed the GDP goalposts long ago. GDP in the US has been negative since 2004:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts