Minimize

Welcome!

We could know the upcoming trend by the end of this week.

Big Al
August 4, 2015

** The link is now fixed and should be working for everyone**

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

The markets appear to be pretty directionless. Gary says that his cycle theory is telling him that if oil continues to plummet this is signalling a major shift in the commodity sector which will result in higher prices. He says that we could very well know by the end of this week.

Discussion
108 Comments
    Aug 04, 2015 04:26 AM

    Hi guys, I don’t seem to be able to play the audio for some reason

      Jim
      Aug 04, 2015 04:29 AM

      Yes the page doesn’t contain the player, and I tried copying and pasting the mp3 url and that didn’t work either.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:38 AM

    There doesn’t seem to be a download or play button 🙂

      Aug 04, 2015 04:18 AM

      Tim, Jim and Simon,

      Probably my fault, now fixed.

      Sorry

    Aug 04, 2015 04:46 AM

    Newmont Completes Acquisition Of Cripple Creek & Victor Mine
    Tuesday August 04, 2015

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-08-04/Newmont-Completes-Acquisition-Of-Cripple-Creek-Victor-Mine.html

    Aug 04, 2015 04:47 AM

    Thanks – working now.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:48 AM

    Guyana Goldfields Inc. Pours First Gold at its Aurora Gold Mine
    Aug 04, 2015

    http://www.guygold.com/s/NewsDetails.asp?id=122592

      Aug 04, 2015 04:23 AM

      Thanks for this, Shad

    Aug 04, 2015 04:49 AM

    U.S. Mint Reports Whopping 469% YoY Increase In Gold Bullion Sales
    Monday August 03, 2015

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-08-03/U-S-Mint-Reports-469-YoY-Increase-In-Gold-Bullion-Sales.html

      Aug 04, 2015 04:58 AM

      Bucking the global trend, South Koreans pile into gold
      Tue Aug 4, 2015
      SEOUL | By Meeyoung Cho

      “South Koreans are on course to buy a record amount of gold in 2015, worried that a meltdown in China’s stock markets will destabilize South Korean equities and keen to replenish a traditional store of value in an era of low interest rates.

      In contrast to the weak demand in top gold buyers China and India, South Koreans are on target to buy 1 trillion won ($860 million) in bullion for the first time this year, based on first-half sales through Korea Gold Exchange 3M Co Ltd, the country’s largest gold merchant….”

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/04/us-gold-southkorea-idUSKCN0Q90D120150804

        Aug 04, 2015 04:27 AM

        This is critical news, in my opinion.

        Want to help out with a daily editorial? (e-mail me at alkorelin@gmail.com}

          Aug 04, 2015 04:15 PM

          I appreciate the offer Big Al, but I don’t think people care much what I think.

          There are much smarter posters on this site than me that would be able to offer better insights. I’ll continue to throw my 2 cents worth in regularly on the blog, but feel the 4 musketeers (with LPG being the 5th musketeer) offer fantastic commentary and the special guests and weekend shows have had all kinds of great speakers. Keep it up Big Al! Good stuff.

          Thanks again for the kind thoughts and hopefully we’ll all learn and share good ideas that make us all better investors.

            Aug 04, 2015 04:25 PM

            Again, have you made up your mind about the New Orleans Conference?

            Aug 04, 2015 04:30 PM

            Unfortunately got to keep the little lady happy. Here was my prior response, but I don’t know if you saw it on that weekend show:

            On July 26, 2015 at 7:58 pm,
            Shad says:

            I don’t think we’re going to make it down. I presented my lady with the idea, but we’ll be traveling the month before that, and she feels I can get enough info on-line without being at the show. I explained many talks are not posted, and the benefits of asking questions of the companies directly, and networking with other investors, but to no avail.

            Being in New Orleans at Halloween does sound spooktacular though 🙂

            Aug 04, 2015 04:28 PM

            We are truly looking forward to it!

        Aug 04, 2015 04:24 PM

        There is an amazing gold connection where Korea is concerned that has almost been forgotten by most market participants. But let me recount it with a link to an old article.

        In 1998 Korea was beset by insurmountable debts. An idea was hatched to get the public behind saving the country and avoiding a humiliating default. The plan involved simply asking Korean citizens if they would donate their surplus gold to help pay down some of the debt.

        The response was overwhelming and it stunned officials.

        In just a few short weeks as much as 20 tonnes of gold was collected and handed over to the government and by the time the program ended it is estimated that as much as 40 tonnes was turned over, melted down and sold on international markets.

        This was a truly a remarkable response of nationalism.

        Too bad that they sold at the lows though!

        Read a brief recount of the story for yourself and some of you will marvel at how ordinary citizens sought to pull the country up by its bootstraps at a critical point in their countries development.

        South Korea’s Reverse Gold Rush — Now I Know — August 2012
        http://nowiknow.com/south-koreas-reverse-gold-rush/

        ——————–
        PS…yes you should do an editorial. That will be interesting no doubt.

          Aug 04, 2015 04:41 PM

          Interest point, A Listener.

          We will certainly look into it.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:02 AM

      Last year had very low sales. If we get another 2 or 3 months in 2015 similar to July, that would indicate a sales rebound and a public liking to gold.

        Aug 04, 2015 04:04 AM

        Yes, I just thought it was interesting development in reaction to the Chinese stock market gyrations, but the article mentioned the low sales in 2014. As you mentioned, it would take another 2-3 months of buying at that level to move the needle, but at least some people still see Gold as a safe haven in times of turbulence.

        Aug 04, 2015 04:27 AM

        Kind of goes along with what Gary was suggesting in an earlier editorial today. Thanks Charley.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:25 AM

      Note, new post on our home page. Thanks, man.

        Aug 04, 2015 04:32 PM

        Thanks Big Al. It seemed like an interesting development in the physical investment demand story.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:53 AM

    Fresnillo PLC Interim Results for the six months to 30 June 2015
    04 Aug 2015

    http://www.fresnilloplc.com/media/208692/150804-fresnillo-interimsaug15.pdf

      Aug 04, 2015 04:42 PM

      And, more thanks Shad.

    PF
    Aug 04, 2015 04:01 AM

    Gary, I don’t think you’re going to be right about this. Going back to 2008-2009, gold bottomed in October 2008 several months before oil bottomed in February 2009. Gold was already up at least 20% by the time oil finally bottomed.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:28 AM

      thanks for the opinion PF.

      Time will certainly tell.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:02 AM

    Mike Swanson: Stock Market is Already Beginning to Crash!I
    Interview by Collin Kettell on August 02, 2015

    http://palisaderadio.com/mike-swanson-stock-market-is-already-beginning-to-crash/

      Aug 04, 2015 04:08 PM

      Hey Shad, thanks for this post, I hadn’t seen it. By the way, did you see MUX today?
      Somebody is buying and not caring about hitting the exact bottom either!

    bb
    Aug 04, 2015 04:03 AM

    Should we have a bottom in commodities, someone is buying them, whose economy has improved?

      Aug 04, 2015 04:38 PM

      bb:
      I was thinking about your question. I’m not sure that huge transfers of wealth can’t take place without a connection to an improving economy somewhere. In a sense we’re all betting on possible outcomes and some of us will undoubtedly
      be wrong; others right……….

    Aug 04, 2015 04:12 AM

    http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2015/08/bo-polny-have-faith-in-gold-silver/

    Bring back Bo Polny. I STILL have my gold $2000 2014 call options hanging on my wall. Bo says he had the charts upside down when he was on your show. PLEASE!
    Bring him back JUST to give us hope. Bo is reworking his voodoo.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:29 AM

      Common John, are you really serious?

        Aug 04, 2015 04:27 PM

        Of course. Just so he can eat his words. I will tune in for that.

          Aug 04, 2015 04:43 PM

          Those folks never eat their words!

            Aug 04, 2015 04:25 PM

            Pride comes before the fall I suppose. Funny though how Bo’s interview was one of the most memorable of the past few years for how badly he fumbled when put under the microscope. A flashlight would have sent him scurrying for the bottom of the stove.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:18 AM

    Kudos to Gary – ballsy call.

    FWIIW I think that oil could be bottoming around the high 30s/low 40s here. Everyone is expecting 35 so…

      Aug 04, 2015 04:31 AM

      Interesting call as he is simply looking at the possibilities. His only prediction, and we do respect him for it, is that: “if this happens then this could very well happen.”

    bb
    Aug 04, 2015 04:21 AM

    Bring back Bo, funny, $2k June, oops $2k July maybe Gary is right and its $2k August.

    Peter Schiff is saying there is a shortage in silver, so he is selling $500k worth.
    You are only allowed to buy 1000 oz tho (cause there is a shortage)
    He wants everyone that wants some to have a chance to get some.
    Who knows when he will get more? Get it while its “hot”.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:30 AM

      Your second paaragraph just shows the showmanship prevalent in our universe!

      Gary never said anything about $2K gold in August.

        bb
        Aug 04, 2015 04:45 AM

        No he didn’t Al, Bo called 2K for June, didn’t happen then he called $2k for July.
        Gary says maybe we at a bottom = 2k Aug?

          Aug 04, 2015 04:43 PM

          Right, bb!

    Aug 04, 2015 04:35 AM

    Another excellent segment with Gary today.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:43 AM

      Thanks Brian, he is a valuable contributor and a good friend.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:49 AM

    Gary am I understanding you correctly when i say you only expect $850 in gold if we get intermediate bottom here and rally hard then in winter/spring drop to SUB $1000 level, possibly to $850? Can you elaborate on both of your scenarios the one you just mentioned that CRB with oil bottoms and we put in bottom soon. How does $850 drop play into that? Confused here a bit. Would really appreciate so clarification if you may. Thank you in advance.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:31 AM

      Correct. In order to get to 850 I think gold and the CRB have to give us another bear market rally right here. that would set up another leg down later this year. If everything just continues to drop right now then I think the pendulum has swung far enough and commodities will bottom this summer.

        Aug 04, 2015 04:33 PM

        Thank you Gary for clarification. Much appreciate it.

        Aug 04, 2015 04:53 PM

        Good thoughts Gary.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:18 AM

    Gary seems to be covering a lot of bases here. May have bottomed last Friday, may fall to 1030 then bottom then rise for a few months then crash to 850 then sideways for months, may flash crash this week and end the bull market with powerful rally with all commodities… I guess we will have to see how this week plays out. So far oil is up today, that leaves Wed-Fri. Maybe a flash crash with the jobs report on Friday?

    Aug 04, 2015 04:19 AM

    what gary said here is plain. If oil & gold continue lower in the next 10 days–it in his mind can be a final 3 yr cycle low..’final’. Short term pain is better…. he spelled his theory out Stew.This is inclusive of most commodities……

    Aug 04, 2015 04:28 AM

    Howdy.
    Bern busy on the real job these dayz. It removes me from the insanity. Lol
    Off this thread topic but on the bug picture.
    Hey where is Lawrence??!!
    As i was mentioning China way back in deep doo doo and will most likely have serious consequences in the years to come for all.
    Lawrence seem to think China has all this fire power…NOT! People been bashing the US FOR YEARS. That a place of relative safety fools. Lol
    Peru has an accurate description AND I think is the a e to watch in the comming years:: READ below.
    Whether you like it or not, China’s economy is in on shaky ground and the nation’s debt level is now extremely high. According to McKinsey & Company, China’s total debt has quadrupled, rising from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion by mid-2014. Astonishingly, at 282% of GDP, China’s debt as a share of GDP is larger than that of many developed economies
    Figure 3: China’s debt boMb
    According to some estimates, nearly half of the debt of Chinese households, corporations and governments is directly or indirectly related to real estate; collectively worth as much as US$9 trillion.
    Given the high level of borrowing, it is no surprise that the Chinese property market has appreciated sharply since 2008 (60% in 40 Chinese cities and even more in Shanghai and Shenzhen). However, trees do not grow to the heavens and China’s red hot real estate market is now showing signs of cooling off.
    The good news is that the Chinese households are not overly leveraged so they should be able to withstand a big slide in property prices. Unfortunately, housing construction is an enormous sector in China, accounting for 15% of GDP. So, a slowdown in the property market will undoubtedly dampen business activity and a prolonged downturn will hurt thousands of small players in the industry, many of which will be unable to keep up with their debt service payments.
    Another area of concern is China’s shadow banking system which has now ballooned to US$6.5 trillion and accounts for half of new lending! It is notable that most of the loans within the shadow banking system are related to real-estate.
    The main vehicles in shadow banking include trust accounts, which promise wealthy investors high returns; wealth management products marketed to retail customers (remember subprime and the AAA-rated securities?); entrusted loans made by companies to one another; and an array of financing companies, microcredit institutions and informal lenders.
    It is noteworthy that both trust accounts and wealth management products are incorrectly marketed by banks, creating a false impression that they are guaranteed. The underwriting standards and risk management employed by the managers of these funds are also subpar.
    In any event, the level of risk involved in China’s shadow banking may well soon be tested by the ongoing slowdown in the property sector. Although anything can happen, we believe that the price deflation occurring in the commodities complex is forecasting a hard landing in China. Furthermore, China’s stock market crash certainly does not bode well for Beijing’s grand plan of transforming the nation into a consumer-led economy.
    If you review Figure 4, you will note that the counter-trend rally in the Shanghai Composite Index has ended and another down leg is now underway. Although Beijing is desperately trying to prop up the stock market, given the high level of margin debt, it may struggle to prevent a true market clearance.
    Figure 4: Shanghai Composite Index (daily chart)
    From our perspective, if the Shanghai Composite takes out its July low, it will be very bearish and further losses for the millions of retail investors will probably hurt China’s consumer spending; thereby slowing down its economy even further.
    In any event, we do not need to jump the gun; instead, we simply need to monitor the ongoing devastation in the commodities market, which (among others) must be hurting the economies of Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:34 PM

      Many thanks for this comment,Bill!

    Aug 04, 2015 04:18 AM

    Gutsy, call, Gary! But you stick to your trading method and I appreciate that. Oil and gold looks really weak here. I expected a bigger rally than this and even Armstrong said that he expected gold to go back and test 1155. I’m at a loss as to what is going on here. Who knows, today might just be a bear trap and we start the hard short squeeze rally tomorrow.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:21 AM

    I must say, the one thing that annoys me about this blog is all of the subjective talk. Anyone can hedge their bets and say “the end of this week COULD show us the yellow Martians exist.” Then again, it MAY NOT. Likewise, anyone can say “I feel that a downturn in the markets MAY happen next month, but then again it MAY NOT.” There seems to be very little certainty on this board which makes it about as valuable as hearsay in a court of law (IMO). Just saying …

      Aug 04, 2015 04:59 AM

      Bentnail:
      Respectively, don’t forget this is all free. Kinda like the coffee get-together every morning at the local greasy spoon. None of the commentators have ever said or implied they can guarantee the future. I believe they speak mostly on probabilities based on their past experiences. If anyone wants a definite future forecast, he might try the neighborhood revival tent down the street. Just saying…

        Aug 04, 2015 04:35 PM

        I don’t know about that Silverdollar. I am pretty certain golds future is dismal but nobody wants to hear that here so it pretty much all falls on deaf ears. Read my posts though. I have presented a fairly good case I think…..not just a bunch of mealy mouthed blabber with wriggle room if I am wrong.

        To be more explicit, gold is going to fall hard. the charts are damning and I do not doubt myself. We are in a secular decline that will not end until gold has retraced to its inflation adjusted trend line.

        And that means a big fall is coming (no I will not reverse myself).

          Aug 04, 2015 04:48 PM

          Thanks Listener:
          I should have clarified that I was speaking about Gary, Doc and Rick who speak a lot about gold; not we who listen to their programs and post personal comments.
          I enjoy what you have to say and you’re definitely clear in what you see as the future of PMs. Hope you are wrong though.

            Aug 04, 2015 04:44 PM

            Thanks for the kind words Silverdollar. Let me apologize for being such a bear though. But I am only going by the charts and they are less than positive at this point so I don’t harbour many doubts that my conclusion is wrong. Thing is that it does not matter to me which way the price trend goes and I have no investment in being on either side if the trade. What I mean is that I don’t have any agenda one way or another. I could not care less. I am just one single trader who is trying to look at this market as objectively as I can (for better or worse).

            I am a gold guy though. I wish it could be otherwise but I cannot let bias cloud good judgement.

            Aug 04, 2015 04:39 PM

            What about Gary, Rick and others who are suggesting gold down in the $800’s?

          bb
          Aug 04, 2015 04:17 PM

          You Mr Listener are a rare breed, when you say golds gonna drop (or some other comment) it pretty much doesnt leave wiggle room. Lots can claim “its” gonna do this or that, sure, but not and come close to your batting average.

          As to the comment on shorting, the only ones I really remember is Bird,JJ and James the lesser, I could have forgotten 1 or 2 obviously.

          But of the dozens of posters alone, that’s not too darn many people. People get “stuck” in their beliefs I think.

          As for my shorting, I did ok, could have done a whole lot better, short just doesn’t seem natural to me. Need to shake that. But even “not long” saved me money.

          I am not going to change my thinking until I am proven wrong (happened once before if I recall) I think China increases gold purchases at about $1000, sure, we could dip to Ricks $817. imo, that should be the floor, if I am wrong, well, we could see Dents $400. Even more unpopular, we could stay at $400 for 20 years.
          I kinda doubt it, but ya never know till its over.

            Aug 04, 2015 04:50 PM

            One day bb, you and I should sit down for a cup of coffee and have a few good laughs. I might just ask Al for your email. See you in Calgary perhaps? It’s where my family comes from. The homestead from the 30’s is just steps from the zoo on the Bow. In those days it was inside the city of course but still almost rural back then. The other part of the family is still farming and cattle ranching not that far from town.

            bb
            Aug 05, 2015 05:39 AM

            Al, giving my email to A Listener is fine by me.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:38 PM

      Where I would disagree, is that no bs is slung here. The commentators have nothing to sell and are all expressing, what to me, are very thought provoking opinions. I would certainly rather hear what Gary has to say that what a sensationalist letter writer has to say. Remember people will pay almost anything to hear and “expert” who agrees with them. Beware the Ides of March!

    bb
    Aug 04, 2015 04:29 AM

    Entertainment only Bentnail.
    Of course no one knows, and even saying no one knows can cause attacks around here, lol
    If the people around here really did know, they all would have shorted gold once it failed its third attempt at highs, so long ago now.
    But they didn’t, they attacked anyone that said short was the way to go.
    So…….., entertainment only, not worth getting annoyed.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:38 PM

      Some did short, bb. And I think you were quite happily amongst those who made out very well on the declines thus far. But you are a rare breed, friend.

        Aug 05, 2015 05:39 AM

        Yes, there are some of us that shorted Gold & Silver on the way down, and then played the counter-trend rallies back up. I’ll admit I went in heavier on the counter-trend rallies because I like the penny stocks, and can’t short some of them, but I used the inverse ETFs to short the PMs at a profit a number of times. It is a 2-way street.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:43 PM

      I can almost guarantee you that Gary; Rick and others did okay financially in gold on the say down!

    Aug 04, 2015 04:43 AM

    BB

    Great point. I must add … I certainly am not trying to attack anyone. It’s just that I am more left-brained / fact based. I can’t stand conjecture for the most part … Be it from behind the pulpit or in the media.

      GH
      Aug 04, 2015 04:58 AM

      Certainty is inversely related to time scale in the markets. Big picture, long-term, I think a number of us feel quite certain (even if we are wrong!), but what might happen over the next couple of days, weeks, or even months? No one knows, and that comes with the territory.

        Aug 04, 2015 04:45 PM

        Boy does it ever come with the territory!

      Aug 04, 2015 04:07 PM

      Bentnail, there are also times in technical analysis where there is more certainty (like at a golden cross on moving averages, or a MACD cross, or when the RSI or Slow Stochastics are so oversold it is nutty, and then they cross, etc….).

      Then there are times like with a triangle, wedge, or flag pattern where things are trading in a range and can break hard to the up or down-side. In cases like that, you need to be prepared for either scenario, and know where the support and resistance levels are and act accordingly when the pattern develops further.

      Nobody has a crystal ball and if anyone tells you the know “for sure” something, they typically get their pants pulled down and spanked. NOBODY is right 100% of the time, and you don’t need to be for success. Being right 60-80% is a fantastic average. Planning for 2 different scenarios that could play out is also very wise, and often is still very left-brained and based on the facts as present. It is like forensics, you use the clues and facts you have, but it’s OK to come to a new conclusion or theory once new data presents itself.

      There is a great deal of back peddling and nebulous comments from some of the commentators and posters at times, and often it is to cover their rears in case they are dead wrong. Many times though, there is not 1 clear path, and so you need to qualify (If bonds do X, then the currencies do Y, then commodities will do Z; however, if bonds do A, then currencies will do B, and commodities will do C)

      Good luck to you sir! I hope you find the one correct path.

        Aug 04, 2015 04:46 PM

        Thanks Shad, so very true, man!

      Aug 04, 2015 04:44 PM

      I am with you Bentnail, but I do find it to be quite thought provoking and even, at times, profitable information!

    Aug 04, 2015 04:00 PM

    Gary says:

    “My original expectation was that we were going to get some kind of little bounce in the commodity complex.”

    No you said a very very big bounce

    Gary says:

    “My original expectation was like I said was to get s bounce and get that three year cycle low later in the year.”

    Your expectation was once again proven wrong.
    We didn’t get the big bounce you guaranteed.

    Gary says:

    “I think we are getting that three year cycle low right now.”

    Flip flop

    Gary says:

    “If it keeps going down that would be my guess…”

    Yes it is only a guess!

    We can all guess!

    Gary says:

    “Not going to be another leg down this winter”

    Wow! Talk about a about face

    You have been calling for $1000 gold for so long due to come in the spring of 2016 now you are completely taking it back.

    You are the king of flip flops.

    Gary says:

    “I have to see how the rest of the week plays out I guess”

    Translation I I made a guess, now I have to see what happens.
    If I am wrong I blame manipulation and make a new guess

    Take away

    We could be entering the three year cycle low, then again we might not be
    We could crash hard, but then again we might not
    The bottom could be in for gold now, but then again it might not be

    Do I paint an accurate picture here?

      Aug 04, 2015 04:48 PM

      Interesting comment James.

    Dan
    Aug 04, 2015 04:35 PM

    Another day, another conventional market plunge stopped dead in its tracks. When will this farce end?

    Aug 04, 2015 04:56 PM

    Watch the Euro Gary. It is set to start rising in after hours and the dollar will reverse down. We are just a few pips away from the Euro bottom as I write this so tomorrow may indeed finally see a positive directional change for precious metals. A lot will depend on the strength of this move though.

      Aug 05, 2015 05:42 AM

      I tend to agree and it looks like it may be starting mid-day Wednesday. I’d like to see the Euro, Loonie, and maybe the Yen strengthen going into next week to confirm the trend. Friday’s jobs report may help the cause in weakening the USD.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:41 PM

    Commodities are going a lot lower before the end of the year. $20 for oil, $700 for gold, $1.50 for copper. This is just starting. A deflationary bust is going to occur that will feel like an eternity.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:09 PM

      Sounds grim.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:34 PM

      Doubtful,at best,
      or as the bird likes to say,
      another guess.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:50 PM

      $20 oil Velma? That would sure lower my daily cash outlays as we live about 25 miles from a large city. (Where, by the way, I and Kathy get our more than once a week medical care.)

      $700 gold would surprise me, but then again!

    Aug 04, 2015 04:56 PM

    Dan I said yesterday they will never let this market crash.

    It’s too late now – no going back

      Aug 04, 2015 04:51 PM

      No going back on what, James?

    Aug 04, 2015 04:58 PM

    Velma it won’t feel like an eternity. It will be an eternity.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:28 PM

    Velma and James: Thanks for your thoughts. I can’t see commodities becoming almost worthless like you do. People still eat, drive, heat their homes. Agriculture must go on or hundreds of millions will starve. I think you are forcasting currencies, particularly the dollar to climb much higher since something must off-set. JMO but can’t see things getting as dire as you do.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:36 PM

    Gary,

    I agree with you that this bounce in metals is coming. I still think 1225 is in the not so distant future ( can’t believe it hasent started yet ). It looks like right after the bounce starts the washout phase.
    It’s certainly possible that oil and other commodities bottom before gold, as gold is now listed as money.Gold is no longer a commodity! That could be why the cycles are changing…?
    The markets are certainly in a new paradigm shift.
    It’s funny how the main stream financial publications are slamming gold, when the central banks have just listed it as ” money “….! Guess they are wanting to brainwash everyone into thinking it is a washed up asset..? ( so they can scarf it up when the bottom is in ..?
    Uh,YEAH, right..

      Aug 05, 2015 05:28 AM

      yeah that is the game chartster.Always remember that many of the mainstream media are prostitutes of wall street crooks.They sleep in the same bed.They are the propoganda machine of the bullion banks and hedge fund scamsters.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:00 PM

    SilverDollar, A strong dollar is going to wreak havoc and reversals in many economies around the world–including the United States . I can see the dollar hitting 120 and possibly 140 as it along with treasury bonds will be the only safe haven. This downturn will be worse than 2008-2009.
    However, before that, I think there is still a chance that the dollar was back to 94 and we get that intermediate gold spike that Gary was talking about just a few days ago.

      Aug 04, 2015 04:38 PM

      Meanwhile,the Chinese are dumping dollars at record pace.
      Be nice for the dollar to rise further as incentive for the world to dump the rest of their TP.

        Tom
        Aug 05, 2015 05:10 AM

        Matt:

        But who is buying those dollars?

    Aug 04, 2015 04:58 PM

    Those calling for the dollar going to 1.20 are really amusing. It’s not going to happen, not for many years. Basic finance..)

      Aug 04, 2015 04:24 PM

      I would happen to agree!

    Aug 04, 2015 04:29 PM

    I got out of Gdx last Friday at breakeven. Too much resistance at 1100 and looks like 1000 could come soon.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:26 PM

    HI…MY FIRST POST EVER
    IT LOOKS LIKE DOW GOLD RATIO IS HEADING TO 18-20
    GOLD SILVER RATIO HEADING TO 80
    CHECK THE CHARTS AND POST WHAT U THINK

      Tom
      Aug 05, 2015 05:22 AM

      I’d agree on the 20. Then a small move down before heading up toward 50.

      Aug 05, 2015 05:40 AM

      20 would make sense as it represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from about 44 to 5.8.

      We will see 1 before we see Tom’s 50 -which will not happen in the lifetime of anyone living today.

        Aug 05, 2015 05:41 AM

        If 20 is not reached, it will be more bullish for gold and bearish for stocks.

          Aug 05, 2015 05:45 AM

          agreed Matthew.

    Aug 04, 2015 04:37 PM

    GARY
    DOESN’T THE ABOVE POST MAKE SENSE
    WITH YOUR TIMING PROBALY IN THE FALL
    WHAT DO U THINK? ……THANKS FOR ALL YOUR OPINIONS