Where are we currently in the gold cycle? Gary Savage comments.
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We have suggested that the markets could undergo some dramatic movements this Fall. We are still sticking with that premise. At this moment it would appear that Gary’s prediction concerning an intermediate cycle high in gold may come to fruition.
Gold looks fairly good as well. It has broken above $1103.66, and is currently at $1108.30 so that confirms we already were in the August bounce on Friday, and this is the continuation. Glad I left a few positions on, but sad that I took profits on Friday now on a few. Oh well, better to be safe than sorry, and it has still been a day of further growth.
New game forming maybe , silver could be the play……we will see FRIDAY….
Gold is hold ………..hold for the long haul……………the claw.
For Big Al, always a hold for the long haul!
Same with silver for me!
I hope gold holds , and moves to 1125 this week………..
wOO…………50CENTS
Way to go Shad!
Thanks Big Al. I trimmed back a few more profitable positions today on the big spike and had a very profitable Friday and Monday, so I’m pretty happy. There is no shame in taking profits, but, having said that, I did leave some money on the table by trimming on Friday and may have done the same today. My challenge is letting my winners run, but I’d rather lock in a profit, then watch it go up, and then crash back down in these whipsaw markets.
Good luck to all in their investing.
Yup!
TUES…………..HONG KONG TAKING it to the shorts…………..
Bill Holter……….at usawatchdog…………………info on the SDR and CHINA , what not getting in the basket might imply.
COT report gave a good indication of what is coming …
https://www.dropbox.com/s/919e4diks8bbq96/COMEX%204-08-15.jpg?dl=0
Another leg down after ???
thanks for the chart……………..
Thanks for the link Gabriel!
I Said last week there was no point in manipulation downwards on Sunday night, because we were not close to settlement days in New York, Chicago or London for precious metals.
Fundamentals work!
thanks Professor ………….
You make a good point, CFS!
CFS, could you explain what you mean by this? Why do we need to be close to settlement days for the manipulation to work?
Just trying to learn as much as possible. Thanks!
When/if we are close to a physical shortage, then the manipulation will be in an increasing price direction.
That is the question………..shortage………………. the claw
Great Monday morning. I like the modest parameters that gold seems to be overtaking………..one at a time. We don’t need a quick blow off. Steady grinds hurt so much on the downside. I’m sure they affect the shorts the same way on the upside…..a thousand needles. Prick, prick, prick…………..
good one…………..prick, prick , prick…………
You have apparently experienced that sensation also, no?
wee wee senior
Wow. CDE. Never noticed it closed below $3 on Friday. Up 16% + this morning.
Gazooks!
Gary,
Why does every body focus on 8 year cycle and not the 11 year cycle, apparently silver has 11 year cycle: 1993, 2004, 2015 major low?
A lot of experts see 2016 new lows in gold like $850, but isn’t that too mainstream?
When manipulation is in an upwards direction, it will be due to hedge fund momentum players, rather than bullion banks, who will be sidelined at that time, waiting for a high price and the opportunity to move it down again……that’s years away.
Years away, Professor?
So what happens in the meantime?
Remember this chart of SLV:GLD (silver priced in gold):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p20700702161&a=415279966
Bird “A Listener” Man recently ridiculed my view that the implications were bullish and he was wrong.
This is a relief rally. Nothing more. Try to contain your excitement. Anyway, I never criticize charts. The daffy duck analysts behind them are another matter. In any case, you did not make a recommendation…..chart posting can be done by children and handicaps too.
Relief rally or not, I was still right and you were still wrong. Try to contain the delusions.
You are nothing more than a broken clock. Of course you will *eventually* be right about something. Not in this case though. No points for posting charts without offering an opinion on what they mean. I NEVER open your links in any event as you are not trustworthy.
Common Guys, PLEASE, you are way to smart for this bickering!
And c’mon Al you KNOW the one who makes the serious waves!
Shad:
Mux is on another good run. Will it poop out again?
It’s looking exciting. I am currently in other stocks at present but am kicking myself for not taking a position at $.70 last week. I just wasn’t sure whether we were going to get the breakout of the breakdown today, so I only have some of my positions on for the bounce. I don’t expect this rally to be long-lived, but do think MUX may have further to run. I posted an interested article from Rob McEwen, that I’ll repost here while we’re on the topic of MUX.
Rob McEwen Interview: What’s hurting juniors more than the gold price
Angela Harmantas (Smallcappower) – 3 August 2015 11:11 am
http://www.mineweb.com/analysis/rob-mcewen-interview-whats-hurting-juniors-more-than-the-gold-price/
Thanks for the link, Shad!
Yep, MUX popped to $.80 as we discussed last week Silverdollar. Very nice to see.
McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX) -NYSE Watchlist
0.8003 Up 0.0242(3.12%) 1:14PM EDT – NYSE Real Time Price
Silverdollar and anyone else following MUX – Here’s an excerpt from that article above:
__________________________________________________________
“What’s in store for McEwen Mining for the remainder of 2015 and into 2016?
This year we are expecting our best production year, producing nearly 138,000 oz of gold equivalent. Most of this is due to our El Gallo mine in Mexico, where we expect to see around 50,000 oz produced at a lower cost than previous years. We did experience a gold theft at El Gallo 1 but our insurance has covered 80% of the loss, and we’re still hoping to recover the remainder. Our treasury is strong: we have no debt or sell royalties or metal streams, which I think are quite detrimental to the industry, particularly when margins are being squeezed. We declared our first dividend that will be payable on August 1, 2015.
So paying a dividend can be done in this gold price environment?
Absolutely. I’ve always viewed dividends as a form of discipline for management. You have to pay some “economic rent” to the shareholders as we continue to build our share price.”
Once again, thanks for posting this Shad. You’re a man of the people. I’m still going to draft you. Mish is running, have you heard? He hasn’t a chance since he’s from Chicago.
Seriously, this article reveals a lot more than just the production figures!
Thanks man – yes Rob McEwen is insightful to listen to, has excellent experience in this industry through multiple commodity cycles, and is fairly level-headed in his approach.
May you have a great investing week!
Watch the MACD. The seniors (GDX) are about to outperform the juniors (GDXJ) for awhile:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p20695279079&a=414643240&listNum=1
Possibly an individual example of your comment which I agree with is GG. Looking strong today, so far……….
Notice that GDXJ gapped down 4% vs GDX today and was down as much as 5% before rebounding nicely, but is still down about 1%. At a minimum, I think the ratio will chop sideways awhile. The MACD sell signal is close. AEM and ABX are also up about 7%.
GDXJ is up less than 4%.
Interesting thoughts on the Seniors outperforming the Jrs.
Thanks Gary. A couple of weeks ago, you thought we could see a rally of as much as 50% in the miners during this bear market rally. Do you still think they could rally that much?
Yes
It looks like China is fighting back with continuing announcement of gold holding increases. IMF has pissed them off.
Agree with Bill Holter:
” China had requested both “publicly and officially” to be included in the SDR. They were publicly humiliated with this move by the IMF. The Chinese are a very proud people, public humiliation would be last on my list of aggressions toward them!
Make no mistake, they will retaliate. I believe just as the IMF did this while China is having market problems and during a period of weakness, China will return the favor to the U.S. …at a very inopportune time for us. When our markets are convulsing, probably this fall, you can expect one of two responses from the Chinese. They will either come public with a true and VERY LARGE number for their gold holdings, or they will threaten to and actually dump some Treasury securities/dollar holdings…or both! I believe their response will be timed to hit us just as in a boxing match, when we are tired, down or vulnerable …for maximum effect.”
Good points Gabriel:
If this senario should play out, watch for nice movement in the specialty metal stocks with reserves in favorable jurisdictions.
The pentagon has gotten involved with UCU.V Ucore Rare Metals. They have a strategic deposit in Alaska. Any friction with China this could be a mover.
Good thoughts on that kind of move from China affecting specialty metals John K.
As Forest said, “stupid is as stupid does”!
Very good points on how China and their likely actions in the midst of US economic weakness Gabriel.
Here is the Administration of Foreign Exchange site which publishes the foreign exchange holdings. Click on the link in it, it will show a document summarizing all foreign exchanges in OFFICIAL holdings.
Thanks Lawrence!
As one who knows the culture, this is extremely rude. China prefers to work behind the scene and show friendliness on the surface regardless how tense the situation is. If China announces china is trying to get the inclusion of SDR , it mean someone in IMF promised that China will be included. Now China was rejected and government has lost face (credibility). It is like slap in the face. It is not a small humiliation.
ditto
That is interesting and makes perfect sense based on my very limited understanding of Chinese culture. Thanks Lawrence.
You bet it is not a small humilliation!
Are you surprised?
While this is essentially a PM site, am curious as to whether shorting the currency market, specifically the Yen, might be profitable should we have a SHTF moment this Fall as all financial markets appear to be somewhat related one way or the other. Anyone?
Al,
Commencing today I boycotting your blog.
My reason is simple – you continue to give Bob Moriarty a platform to disseminate his anti Semite rhetoric and blame America first propaganda.
Although I am not a Jew, I will not tolerate people, words, or actions that demonstrate bigotry and hatred towards one, or any people group.
Iran’s leaders have made it clear they want to bring about the destruction of Israel and America, and anyone who denies this must be held culpable as well.
Let me make it clear I have no ill feelings towards the people of Iran, only their leaders who choose to take this position.
Until Mr. Moriarty’s hate speech is censored I will no longer be participating in, advocating for, or acknowledging this blog.
James……you should not boycott…….but, use wisdom here…… otherwise those who do not know will not learn. ……………………..jmho………………….ootb
but, then again, you might we showing wisdom………………
we ….to…..be or not to be……..that is the question…………
Grow up James! DT
DITTO
What the heck are you doing back on our site?
By the way, WELCOME BACK!
Double Ditto
+3
Thanks for that comment, Mr. Frank!
That’s too bad James, don’t like to see you go.
I thought your comments on gold were good.
Unfortunately, your out to lunch on this issue.
Best to you.
James,
I am just wondering, can you say anything that Israel has done good since it’s recent existence? Anything at all?!
I think I recall some medical advancements from Israel.
That was a few years ago I believe.
Something about bone regrowth.
As far as I can tell the Iranians echo your sentiments in reverse, James: it’s not Israelis or Americans that they hate, but their odious governments.
The only hate speech I heard from Bob was when he called you a fool and a liar.
But this was after you cursed up a storm at him.
I saw nothing anti-semitic in his posts. What an overused term. It’s applied to anyone who objects to Zionist aims and actions. I would think that would piss jews off, since zionists certainly don’t represent all jews.
I completely agree with you GH!
Exactly GH, Zionist do not represent all Jews.
And there are many Jews that do not appreciate the Zionists just as many Americans didn’t appreciate Bush.
Just as most don’t appreciate Obama.
Great points GH.
Hey, he pounded on me last weekend regarding the paper precious metals market. Nothing wrong with debate and a little mud wrestling. …And if Mr Moriarty wants to rant, why not? It adds color, and sometimes he makes good points too. Just filter it out. Hope you stay on cause I enjoy your counter points. It’s an open forum, you being here adds to that.
James: You seem to have no problem with the real hate speech coming out of Israel, why would you have any problem with the fictional hate speech coming out of Iran?
I really doubt the site could possibly survive without your humorous asides and fictional additions but I’m sure others will try.
Reach into your pocket and pull out a one sided coin and send me a photo, I’d like to see it.
Iran hasn’t done anything to the US and those calling for war against fictional enemies commit treason against the US. In Israel you would be known as a useful idiot.
But what about your bigotry against Iran, doesn’t that count for something?
The former PM of Iran simply repeated a quote from someone else and contrary to your fiction, he said Israel would disappear into the sands of time.
The actions of the current Zionist PM are beyond destructive. Netanyahu is cutting the existing bond between the US and Israel forever. Israel is indeed about to disappear into the sands of time. Oh, well, they are doing it to themselves.
Sorry, I have not seen Bob’s comment. I will say that I am a major advocate of Free speech.
Cory and I are in charge of this site; we are definitely not anti Semitic; and, neither of us are anti Iran either.
People are free to express their individual opinion as they are free to “bear arms”.
I apologize for the X-rated language, but this is worth watching and remembering…..nothing changes:
https://youtu.be/i5dBZDSSky0
George Carlin was spot on. I’ve seen that before, but it was great to watch it again. Thanks for posting it CFS.
Ditto Shad
Hey Rev – hope all is well sir!
This partial chronology of U.S. intervention in the Middle East illustrates the lengths to which the U.S. power structure has gone to gain and maintain U.S. domination of the Middle East–a region considered key to the U.S.’s standing as an imperialist world power. This is not a complete list of the invasions, bombings, assassinations, coups and other interventions by the U.S. government, its allies, or its client states, nor does it fully document the U.S.’s economic domination and exploitation of the region’s people and resources.
1920-28: U.S. pressures Britain, then the dominant Middle East power, into signing a “Red Line Agreement” providing that Middle Eastern oil will not be developed by any single power without the participation of the others. Standard Oil and Mobil obtain shares of the Iraq Petroleum Company.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article6308.htm
Went long NEM, ABX, and CVX today.
I beat you by 25 years!
Ha! funny Bonzo Barzinin.
I also went long on Dome Mines, Hartbeestfontaine, Durban Deep, Kloof, and Homestake back in the 1970’s. Also Dome Petroleum! What happened to Smiling Jack Gallagher?
I bought back a small position in GDX on Friday. So what happened to the big 25% correction that the experts were calling for? Each time the market corrects, the bears come out calling for a collapse.
What is “Semite”?
“In studies of linguistics and ethnology, the term Semitic (from the biblical “Shem”, Hebrew: שם) was first used to refer to a family of languages native to West Asia (the Middle East). The languages evolved and spread to Asia Minor, North Africa, the Horn of Africa and Malta, and are now referred to cumulatively as the Semitic languages. The languages include the ancient and modern forms of Ahlamu; Akkadian (including Assyrian and Babylonian dialects); Amharic; Amalekite; Ammonite; Amorite; Arabic; Aramaic/Syriac; the Canaanite languages (Phoenician, Punic or Carthaginian and Hebrew); Assyrian; Chaldean; Eblaite; Edomite; Ge’ez; Old South Arabian; Modern South Arabian languages; Maltese; Mandaic; Moabite; Proto-Sinaitic; Sutean; Syriac; Tigre and Tigrinya; and Ugaritic, among others.”
~wikipedia.org
Thanks Irwin. That’s kind of cool. Even I was unaware there were so many variants and I speak a couple of those languages.
I bet……….Ge’ez and Moabite…………………..just guessing………….
Hebrew for starters Frank. But you probably guessed that anyway.
Good we can now have some real dialog…………..are you JEWISH?
Are you?
NO, are you?
Frank he never answers when push comes to shove. What a d….!
Ah yes, a bit of sanity Irwin.
I am just wondering what’s the odds that TPTB are looking at the rise in gold and silver today and are not liking it one bit… and are, even as I type, planning on smacking it down later this week.
Just thinking out loud.
Remember guys Gary said that he was expecting another “attack”. Whatever that means. Basically if gold was down, Gary would have been right and gold is up so he is right. Gary never loses, his subs always lose.
This bounce was widely expected T. It’s just that few realized how weak the bullish side was and so it took plenty of time for new positions to get established and investors start sniffing around again. We could get a reversal tomorrow and that would fit Gary’s attack thesis. But my feeling is it will be a decline that can be bought.
That is my thinking also A Listener… I meant to post earlier just how bearish the numerous articles on gold, silver, oil and general commodities have been in the past 72 hours.
Bearish enough for a rally.
Good minds thinking alike Bob! I agree with you about the media. Even I was surprised how negative it all got to the point I stopped reading. It was all news after the fact anyway and little of it seemed forward looking nor were the writers sniffing out opportunity. It is so true what they say about sentiment and herds.
But getting cautious again……take a long look at the Canadian dollar chart Bob. This one below is a monthly and warns that considerable pain is still ahead for commodities. So even as we enjoy this bounce today and in the coming weeks we need to keep in mind that in the larger picture a lot of trouble still lies ahead. As Chris pointed out a great deal of our troubles will be coming from China directly. Unless we can believe they are about to stage an abrupt economic turnaround we should stay vigilante and not get long on some industrial commodities just yet.
Sorry….here is the link for the Canadian Dollar
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6C&p=m1
There is a real possibility that China just prints. We wake up on morning and the Chinese have announced a massive QE and copper, iron, coal, etc, goes through the roof.
The Chinese will, I think, kick the can down the road like everyone else… and I think they will announce such a QE by Sept.
I was hopinh for oil to continue down to 40 bucks – at which point I was going to stock up on RIG and others as I can’t see oil staying down in this area for a long time. I think it will be 70 to 80 bucks within 12 months.
You know Bob, you just may be right. I was just saying earlier that I think the Chinese are getting desperate with so much going wrong at once and that could lead to a panic response from them. As we have seen they are drawing down their treasury reserves in a big rush to support stock markets over there. The money has to come from somewhere. But the effect of holding the Yuan down by recycling money into US debt markets will be lost if they pull out too much too fast. That means they will be facing the prospect of a strengthening currency which can only be offset with PBOC QE or other measures to weaken the currency. So sure, we could get a surprise announcement any day and that would turn a few things on their head. In the big picture though I still think this deflation will have to run its course.
I think it will be a knee-jerk panic response by the Chinese. What else are they going to do – let everything crash?
If I am right then oil, copper, iron, etc, will jump up.
T,
An attack is a huge dump of futures contracts in the premarket. Something way above the position limits. So an illegal trade, but one that never gets enforced.
Nice try though 🙂
Nice move with Kinross (KGC)
Bought shares a few weeks ago at $1.70
Unreal how cheap these stocks are now, got to love it!
Cheers!
IMO this was small short covering by shorts. Gold has retraced and it’s already dropping. Expect top soon if it has not already topped and drop to lower lows and maybe attack sometime this week. Looks as if commercials are setting up longs for final kill then they will go long.
Yep ! That was short and sweet .
China devalues its currency and some still think the Fed will hike rates any month now
Also about those Chinese hopes to join the SDR: better luck next time
Really great commentary, Gentlemen!
Many thanks!
Thanks Big Al
Soon over one billion Chinese will soon be scrambling to preserve their purchasing power …
I assume the PBOC will update its revised foreign reserve and gold holdings. The next big leg up in gold will take place when it is revealed that the PBOC had only exposed a portion of its “new” total gold inventory.
The BIS is working hard this morning to sell a few billion in paper gold just to reset the price of gold lower as a surge in gold, and a loss of faith in paper money, at this juncture in just broken out global currency wars, is the last thing the central banks’ central bank can afford.
BBC reporting is as the biggest devaluation for a decade. Two percent.
Interesting that the Yuan devaluation comes right after the IMF announcement.
When you look at their competitor in Japan, the Japanese Yen index has been taken down from 130 to 80 in the last 3 years, a fall of about 38%. (Ha! 13 and 8 are Fibonacci numbers, a bit of mathematical fun.)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24XJY
SILVER LOOKING GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD…………… the claw