We are covering all the markets!
Avi and I cover all the markets. We start out with gold then move to oil, the conventional markets, and the US dollar.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Very good points and well said Bob UK.
No IR rise probably would also mean the conventional markets going back to their highs as well though would it not as people look for a home for cash?
Agreed, but I’m curious to see if the Fed will just do the token 25-50 basis point move (.25-.50) to show the markets they can, however, it will be very ill-timed if they try for a Sept hike when China is such a mess, the markets are in limbo, and the jobs report was weaker than expected. Maybe a December hike?
Up or down………..interesting perspective and similar to Gary’s before Gary began to look for a possible low being a bit earlier that his thoughts perhaps a month ago. When all is said and done, I’m reminded of something I believe H.L. Mencken once said: “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.”
🙂
Silverdollar – Great Mencken quote.
Cheers!
Cory – Great interview with Avi, and solid questions and answers. I generally like and agree with almost all of Avi’s thoughts and forecast. Thanks for having him on the show.
GLD closed just one cent below the 200 hour moving average. Must be a stockcharts subscriber to the following chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=28&id=p44122338359&a=401530474
The daily chart looks good even if we have to move down for a few more days.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87565435782&a=419357345
Matthew
why do you use GLD as oppose to $gold chart.
There will come a time when anyone who has bought either GLD or SLV is going to be screwed. Both of these funds, I predict, are going to be caught holding worthless paper, instead of physical.
Sincw stockcharts provides $gold and $silver data, which are the real thing.
I use both but am forced to use GLD for the various x-minute charts since the daily is as low as Stockcharts offers for gold.
GLD remains a good, liquid tool for taking profits (shorting) rather than selling physical. With any luck it will go off the board while I’m short.
Here’s GLD priced in gold and you can see that it has lost more than 3% since its inception. This is due to management/storage fees. I don’t see anything alarming yet.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78186367903
Priced in its superior Swiss rival, it looks fine.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3ASGOL&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42077545509
CFS and Matthew,
Good comments and reality. I’m thinking the comex is done, soon.
Thanks
I am glad to see that BOB M………..DOES not see $800 gold…….Hope I am not out of place by saying that…………………………………………………………….CCF
FFM:
There are lots of people who believe they can pick price, I’m not one of them. But I don’t think we will see $800. If we do, it will mean the end of the world financially.
You’re going to see below 800 on gold. It’s all good… It won’t be the end of the world. It will be a shakeout on who’s who. It’s a good thing. The bottom will be short lived.
short lived……like in overnite ……in the ny globex on a sunday nite …….
thanks BOB for the reply……….
CLGRF (Claude) looks like it needs to go sideways to down for a little while. $0.45 looks like a good buy to me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLGRF&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75232876366&a=397042274
Good thoughts on Claude (CLGRF). I’ve been looking for a good pullback in it for a while to establish a new position. I almost purchased some at the end of last week, but decided to go with a little larger producers in the gold and silver space for the August rally. I’m still a huge fan of Claude, and have been for years (thanks to our talks a few years back). We still haven’t seen even the tip of the iceberg of where this stock will head once the Gold market turns around and prices improve, so for the next 3-5 years it is still on my favorite list of a dozen gold producers.
Also, I had sold out my prior Argonaut (ARNGF) position earlier in the week to take profits, but I did just start a new position on Thursday at $1.12, and then averaged down in Argonaut earlier today at $1.02, and have an overall cost basis (and larger position) now at $1.06. I’m a little cautious still because my prior position was built at $.95, but I do still expect a further run up in PMs next week where I could see this stock test that $1.23 level again, and possibly make it to test that $1.44 peak from July 6th before this rally is over. Do you still hold any Argonaut or have any thoughts on it?
I still own some and plan on adding more on further weakness. Since I usually scale in rather than going all-in at one price, I’ll probably start soon.
May your mining positions grow multiple-fold this next week. Cheers!
Argonaut Gold Updates Mexus Gold US on the Julio property
August 17, 2015
thanks for the chart………………..clawing for claude
I think that quite often a news event just accelerates a move up to resistance or down to support – and as Avi says, probably does not usually change a trend.
I mean, maybe gold just moved up to resistance at $1126 quickly. I remember well gold’s failed daily cycle that failed on day one around Sept/Oct 2013 at about $1360 and then came right off again. Gary Savage talked about that quite extensively in his interviews at that time. Maybe that happened on the “no taper” FOMC announcement; I don’t recall exactly.
It sounds like Avi with his target of 103 is a little more bullish in the US dollar than Doc in the near term.
PHYS action has been promising.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PHYS&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p42538576837&a=370904138
The dollar is holding up well but I wouldn’t buy it here personally.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p70946464655&a=361825427
Silver is trying to deal with fork resistance:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p32262963694&a=374891072
That’s forked up.
I’ll say.
can’t go much lower , or it will be off the page, ….then it will go negative and Irish will pay you to haul it off…………………………………
If you ever wanted proof of a MARXIST president…….
http://www.wsj.com/articles/obamas-climate-plan-and-poverty-1439420266
As a person who does not wish to see his country in the Marxist toilet of history, it is time, in my opinion, to abolish the EPA, and create a non-marxist environmental agency, which actually sticks to its charter.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/obamas-climate-plan-and-poverty-1439420266
I like it when price reacts perfectly at a support/resistance line that I drew on a chart well beforehand. Her’s such a chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99112526366&a=406396269&listNum=1
Here’s one that I annotated on June 5th (blue arrow). I don’t like that gold was unable to reach the black arrow before reversing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p00615764058&a=411098748
This was drawn on 6/6:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=9&dy=0&id=p67017118496&a=411218932
Serious resistance comes at $1155-1160:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=22&id=p79625808879&a=417584874&listNum=1
Agreed, but $1131 (the prior Nov 2014 low) is first resistance, that we’ll likely test this next week. Then if Gold can break through that level $1150-$1155. If we test either one 3 times, then I’m selling out of my positions. If we make it through both of those areas then $1180, $1200, and $1224 come back into play.
This was drawn on 7/28:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68062764382&a=417877613
http://tunein.com/radio/The-Mark-Levin-Show-p30095/
Obama has your 6.
CFS – Thanks for post Mark Levin. I used to listen to his radio show often because I spend about 1-3 hours a day driving, and get tickled when he gets wound up and starts a good rant.
Best to you sir.
Count me Team Woods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS955K_RuyM
Agreed. I like Tom Woods much better, and think Mark does go overboard and seems to think he is the only one that understands the Constitution. My only point was that he cracks me up when he rants about anything. In the case of Mark’s attacks on other conservatives lately, he’s barking up the wrong tree, and represents the very problems and divisions within the Republican party.
Good video from Tom Woods BTW. Thanks for posting it.
Gold:Silver weekly with Schiff fork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p63594903839&a=420611051
Note that the higher high came with a MACD and RSI meltdown. Silver is where it’s at in the big picture.
thanks……………melting at 72 degrees…………summer and the turn to colder temps should put us back to 60 to 1………………………………….the hibernator
Great interview Mr Cory Fleck. Great job on covering metals and oil, and conversationals not i care for them myself lol
Avi is the most reliable source for this bear market and I feel shame for not listening to him but myself.
It would be great if Avi can introduce his service with discount for this site. I feel many would like joining him for the bull ride (including myself) for the years to come.
You get a trial of 15 days free of charge. 🙂
There’s a definite divergence between where Gary sees gold/oil and what both Doc and Avi are saying – or did I mishear everyone’s thoughts?
I think Gary’s view that the low in the commodities could be happening now needs serious consideration. Everyone has been expecting it to coming in Sept/Oct when, supposedly, the Fed raises IRs. But if they do not raise…
The BOE’s Mark Carney was already back-peddaling last week on a UK IR rise in the Autumn and mentioned that the first IR rise might not come until the Spring. I think what he said is vitally important because the Fed and BOE have been working hand in glove since 2008.
If the Fed oneday announces that an IR rise is not happening then I think it is off to the races with commodities – gold, oil, you name it – as the USD goes down.