We need to be aware of how a bear market forms int he US
Doc has some comments on how the conventional markets are looking weak and what that could lead to. We then shift focus to the gold sector which is not showing either of us the strength we would like to see.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
If that happens Gary I daren’t think what the biotechs will do 🙂
Doc, that would be when XON goes to $200 🙂
Bob, I’m in the money options at the price of 40 for XON. I believe XON will see that price. At that time I’ll decide whether to just stay with the stock or sell lower in the money calls.
Thanks Doc, I also have a 40 dollar target for a buy in for XON. Like you I will see what is happening in the wider market if XON gets down there.
I wish my XOM would go to 200 as well as my NEM!
Gsry, And you’re hoping for no loss in dollar value!?!
Big loss in the dollar value just like the yen lost value if we follow in Japan’s footsteps.
His Daddy invented the first oscillator, ah do believe!
Doc;
With your opinion of being in cash, you might want to listen to Macleod around 23 minutes in:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQxes_dQv2g
Surely all that the conventional markets need is someone in the Fed making a throwaway comment that there will be no interest rate rise this year… perhaps mention that the Spring will be the earliest.. and then money will pour back into the conventional markets throughout the winter and up until the spring?
Or isn’t it that simple?
I just keep thinking about Mark Carney, about 10 days ago, saying that UK IRs might not rise until the Spring after months of talking about them being raised in September. As I have said before, I think the BOE and US Fed work hand in glove.
I think you are correct Bob UK about the Fed, Bank of England, ECB, IMF, bank of Japan, etc… all working together to some degree to do a round robin as far as lowering or raising interest rates, and while it is a currency war, it is also a central planning soap opera that is somewhat scripted and contrived.
Good description of a bear market, Doc. Slow, grinding and never really offering one any help in identifying it. Suppose that is why so many, including myself, continue to ride it down, thinking that next week it will resume the upward trend.
For an example of a tech stock, take a gander at Micron (MU). It bounced yesterday, but today resumed the downtrend.
What’s really at risk in my opinion are the pension funds, most of which aren’t funded anyway and which are usually 98% in the markets, both stocks and bonds.
Micron was a stock that Michael Belkin mentioned on the show on the weekend as an example of where tech stocks are going.
The Micron chart looks like gold in mid-2013 consolidating after the April crash.
I assume. therefore, you are also in favor of using a plain non-geared general market short, Doc.
CFS, I’ve been short the Chinese market for some time—I’m also short our markets but not quite as heavy as the Chinese market.
David Stockman thinks the Chinese market is the biggest Ponzi scheme ever.
Silver, the micron chart looks horrible and the stock is in its’ own bear market currently. You’re also right about the pensions funds. If the markets just stay neutral, they’re not reaching their goals. Guess what a 20-30% decline would do to them. They’ll never catch up to their goals.
Agreed and agreed.
Doc, as discussed last week; one place I’m going to start allocating money over the next few months is in volatility. VIXY and UVXY are two good vehicles for this. With the VIX at such lows, it only has one general direction to go from here over the next 6-12 months and this is up. If things get wonky everywhere else, this is one area that will do OK and a good place to hide in the coming crazy period.
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) -NYSEArca
29.27 Up 2.47(9.22%) 10:49AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
Tomorow, the boringness will end… we’ll see!
Great comments Doc.
Big Commodities Rally Coming?
August 18, 2015 at 03:00 PM | written by Carl Swenlin
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2015/08/big-commodities-rally-coming.html
Short answer is – NO
Irwin, I couldn’t agree more with this gentleman’s analysis. The technicals are not showing a glimmer of a commodity rally at this time.
Base metals are over produced, dump them. Crude is manipulated by Saudi, US and wall street to hurt their enemies and stimulate US economy. Gold and silver is going to rise. Dramatic silver supply shock due to base metal production decline and rise of solar use.
RD: In 59 years of measuring the CRB, in constant dollars commodities have never been lower. So from a math point of view you could buy today and in the last 59 years, you would have made a profit 100% of the time. When every commentator is calling for lower prices on anything, you will have a turn that takes everyone off guard.
Markets discount the future.
Doc, you always talk sense. A great tonic to rik’s and Gary’s predictions of massive crashes and massive melt up’s.
I am ready for the S&P to die. SPXS baby!
Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Major Producers & Gold Streamers.
Companies featured: Goldcorp, Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, Randgold, Newmont, Kinross, Yamana, Royal Gold, Franco-Nevada, and Sandstorm Gold.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GG,ABX,AEM,GOLD,NEM,KGC,AUY,RGLD,FNV,SAND#
Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Mid-Tier Producers:
Companies featured: Detour Gold, Eldorado Gold, Gold Fields, Anglogold Ashanti, Alamos Gold, Primero Mining, Lake Shore Gold, Guyana Goldfields, Iamgold, Pretium Resources.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DRGDF,EGO,GFI,AU,AGI,PPP,LSG,GUY.TO,IAG,PVG#
Here’s a 200 day Composite Chart on the Gold Small and Mid-Tier Producers:
Companies featured: Argonaut Gold, McEwen Mining, B2Gold, Rubicon Minerals, Semafo, New Gold, Kirkland Lake Gold, Harmony Gold mining, Sibanye Gold, and Richmont Mines.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?ARNGF,MUX,BTG,RBY,SEMFF,NGD,KGILF,HMY,SBGL,RIC#
Another 10 company composite chart – Small Gold producers & Gold explorers:
Companies featured: Klondex Mines, Alacer, Centerra Gold, Oceanagold, Centamin Egypt, Asanko gold, Crocodile Gold, Dundee Precious Metals, Luna Gold, and Aurico Gold.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?KLNDF,ALIAF,CG.TO,OCANF,CELTF,AKG,CROCF,DPM.TO,LGCUF,AUQ#
This 10 company composite chart is of some of the speculative Gold Jr Mining Explorers that may be near-term producers or takeover targets.
Companies featured: Torex Gold, Romarco Minerals, Garibaldi Resources, Exeter Resources, Rye Patch Gold, Lydian Int’l, GoGold Resources, Inca One Gold Corp, Golden Queen, and Balmoral Resources.
Here’s a bonus 200 day composite chart of the Precious Metals ETFs contrasted in a 200 day Composite Chart.
Featured PM ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, SGDM, SGDJ, SIL, SILJ, TGLDX, HUI, and XAU.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GDX,GDXJ,SGDM,SGDJ,SIL,SILJ,TGLDX,$HUI,$XAU#
SHAD, I like your charts for comparison purposes.
BUT you should not mix stocks in different currencies on the same graph.
With some of your stocks, they rose in $C but fell in $US.
Thanks CFS and that is an interesting point to consider on the different currencies. I was posting them more in the sense of if I invest in these 10 companies from one part of the sector, who out-performed and under-performed. In extreme cases, I’ll do a little more homework on why the increase or why the sharp decline looking for a confirmation, or more importantly a potential contrarian play.
The challenge I have is with Stockcharts as it will only let me post certain ticker symbols so sometimes I have to mix the US and the Canadian symbols. I do agree with you though that the currencies can make a difference.
What I can also recommend, is that you can go down and import your own companies into these charts and if you can help me fix any of them to be better or more fair composites then it would be appreciated. It took me a long time to decide which ones I wanted to pair together as you’re limited to 10. I like to move the time horizons around on them, but am unable to post a link for any other time horizon as it always resets the chart to 200 days. However you can raise or shrink the timeframes and that is very helpful.
Also, you can switch the charts from line charts to a bar-chart graph that shows the percentage increase or decrease over the time period. I like them both for different reasons, but it is interesting to isolate the question – “If I put 10,000 into each of these companies, what was my rate of return or loss over XX time period.
These composite charts can be informative, and help me quickly analyze a sector or similar companies for a quick snapshot, correlations, divergences, or the long-range picture.
Again, if you can help me fine tune the Gold charts to be grouped better then just go down the “Linkable Version” button and reload it with that link and post it here.
Cheers!
Also, sometimes I use that chart strictly to compare 2 or maybe 3 different stocks or ETFs only and and look at their behavior over time, so it can be very focused or more diversified.
For example:
Look at these 3 Oil & Energy related ETFS: (XLE), (XOP), and (OIH).
If you drag the time bar back you can see that since October of 2014, that XLE has outperformed the other two ETFS.
I am unimpressed by Sprott’s supposed ability to outperform an ordinary index.
CFS – After considering that statement and going back and looking at the chart above of the Precious Metal ETFs, I agree with you man.
The Sprott fund (SGDM) barely outperformed (GDX)on the majors, and the Sprott Jr index (SGDJ) underformed (GDXJ) on the Jr miners over the last 200 days. At this point, I like the makeup and weighting inside of the Sprott funds much better, but they have far less liquidity, and their mission is to outperform the other indexes.
In contrast, I’m actually very impressed with the performance of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX), which did better than I expected it to overall, and is a nice balance of Majors, Mid-tiers, and Jrs. May be a more conservative bet in the PM space for a longer term position. If we get another good pullback down in Gold in the next month or so, I may start building a position in TGLDX, SILJ, SGDM, and SGDJ.
I’ll probably continue trading the Jr Miners with JNUG and JDUST for a higher risk/higher return play off GDXJ.
I’m going to start spread betting jnug and jdust from here in the UK for a bit of fun. Bought today at 1099 and sold at 1125. I’ m paying a 4.5p spread though. Seems a bit excessive for a DFB.
If we copy Japan and get the same result they got then we can expect the S&P to rally about 50% over the next year 🙂