Doc is not convinced that this upward movement in gold will last.
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Gold has passed $1150/oz yet Doc and Cory view this strictly as a trading opportunity. How about you?
I have to agree with you, Bob
Sorry, guys; this is just another nice jump in gold and not the start of bigger and better things —-that is in the cards later.
Markets are completely manipulated by those who have unlimited access to fiat. They will do as they ease, as long as it pleases them to do so … until the whole enchilada comes crashing down.
Happen to agree Timetofly. I am betting (financially) that the whole enchilada will start a major crash, as measured by the conventional markets, quite soon. Listen to the interview with Axel Merck on the upcoming weekend show.
Nice word Al!
“enchilada”
I had to look it up!
Aww, I’m sorry, Dave, you must live in the North. If you are ever in Texas, I’ll point you towards some great enchilada restaurants ๐
funny. Enchiladas are a staple of my diet :-))
The best enchiladas are from New Mexico. Btw, I think Dave lives in the north on the other side of the Atlantic. There are probably not many places serving enchiladas there.
We happen to have some pretty darn enchiladas here in Washington state. By the way we live in close proximity to a major agricultural community!
I live in Tennessee where we have a 20% Hispanic population, so multiple enchilada options.
Seriously Shad, 20% Hispanic population?
How are they treated?
Mexican food is very different than real New Mexican food. I prefer the latter any day. I had something that was sold as chili in Kentucky once and it was like nothing I had ever tried before. ๐ฎ
I have to believe that most Mexican food in Kentucky leaves a bit to be desired. Nothing against Kentucky as I personally really like that state!
The best enchiladas are in Texas!
Yeah, it’s best not to eat anything in Kentucky…..except Bourbon….they got that one down.
Many of the Mexican restaurants here are run by families that have immigrated (legally and illegally) to the US and they are privately run. About 1/3 of the delicious dives or food trucks only speak Spanish, so luckily I know enough “Spanglish” to order. They are excellent cooks and some of the dishes are quite authentic (with Nopal cactus, pablano peppers, chipotle peppers, habanero peppers, and even Naga “ghost” peppers) and many different kinds of salsas, sauces, and seasonings. Then there are some that cut corners with dog food or US chains that are a dime a dozen.
Bonzo Barzini – Some of the best Mexican food I’ve ever had was in Texas, and I like the fusion restaurants presenting real Tex-Mex selections, as that’s a whole other thing.
I’m late to the party, but y’all go a lot to learn! Skip over texas and come to New Mexico for the best food anywhere- just be ready for the Red or Green question!
“Not really New,
Not really Mexico”
That’s what I just said above! There’s no comparison.
Smart investors will dedicate this song to SPY:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGwCP2hX2FM
Time –
DITTO – BIG TIME!
As I mentioned back at the lows in early August it is my belief gold will work its way up to the 1250 range before finally topping. If you look at the USD daily chart today that should give the bulls a sense of optimism because it does appear to want to continue its fall which is also one of my calls. As it happens I am also on board for a good strong bounce in crude that could begin just about any day now.
Be curious to see what you think of the upcoming weekend interview with Marin Katusa.
Looking forward to it Al. The Listener is getting VERY bullish on minerals and miners even if it is still a little premature in the big picture. Shorter term is pretty positive though.
How far does Doc think this move is going to the upside?
The falling wedge has been evident in the Japanese Yen and some mining stocks where the price collapsed out of the wedge. The Yen did it last September (2014). Some are calling for gold to do it also.
The example I found on Rambus chartology is great because it shows clearly the fakeout rally in the Yen just before it collapsed. Before that fake out rally the Yen did what gold did: it slipped under the lower line and then recovered. That action they kindly put in the green circle!
http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/xjy-day1.png
Doc, do you think gold will do this?
On the other hand, to break out of the wedge to the upside, gold needs to move above about $1250.
Silver, It’s very difficult to tell right now how strong this will be for gold. I’ll have to see next week’s charts to tell me what comes next. Based on a number of charts, I would say this rally will have a very difficult time getting well above 1200. I’ll be more definite after a couple more trading days.
For the past several months, Stansberry and Associates has widely been advertising that a major change in our currency market will occur next month or in October and that the necessary machinery is already in place for this change to happen(congressional approval? Executive order?). They give a button to hit for more detailed information as a teaser but when you hit the button, there is absolutely no information on the subject.
If indeed these changes are to occur I am only assuming that somewhere in the mix would be legal? bail in practices and perhaps other draconian nightmares which are difficult to fathom. I remain skeptical but given what is happening in the macro- economic world, nothing would surprise me either.
Does anyone have a view or knowledge or clue as to what Stansberry is talking about?
Stansberry?….probably just a bunch of hype. Do you think they really have an insight of that kind that has gone unnoticed by the entire investing world? These days I just turn on *ignore* when I come across any links that look like they are directing me to advertising material and a pump job.
As do I, Bird.
Not a clue. I do know that Porter is a masterful marketer.
Now that he’s teamed up with Doug Casey, does that make his enterprise a Trans-Porter Partnership?
Do you drink any session beers. I happen to love them particularly the porters!
Yes I like session beers. They typically have less than 5% (ABV), and so you can enjoy a few socially with friends without going overboard, and they are typically balanced between the hops and malts so they are easy on the pallet. Honestly though I enjoy many types of liquid bread: My favorite are bitter IPA’s, but I love Saison (farmhouse ales), Belgian beers, Nice chocolate or coffee stouts, Porters, Pilsners, Lagers, and some sours. The only beers I’m not a huge fan of are wheat beers or red beers. Cheers!
Doc- I think Gary doesn’t believe the fed can handle the PPT… so he does indeed agree w your thinking.He in the ‘past’ has stated the fed has your back… he is not saying that anymore..
he is saying institutional buyers are waiting….
Agatha, I agree. The conventional markets could get away from the Fed very quickly if sentiment changes.
I agree 1000% Charley!
The Dow is currently down 7% so I don’t understand all this crash talk. Could this not be a normal correction? 10-20%?
Where else can the big institutions put their client money ?
T Bonds? (lol)
Doc, at time of writing XON is 42 bucks – down about 9% in a day.
I was just looking at it moments ago, Bob. Funny you would mention it.
It is the kind of stock to shoot up 20% tomorrow. I still want it for 40 bucks or lower.
Guys, I would be very careful with XON here. According to what I’m looking at, the odds are we take out 40 and head down to the 30-35 area before we get any reprieve. Tomorrow, I’ll roll my in the money 40 calls into probably in the money 30 calls.
Thanks Doc. I appreciate you sharing your expertise.
a listener– I concur re stansberry he just bought casey & marin katusa worked for casey..I wouldn’t listen to anything he says..talk about pumping
I just want to highlight that volatility has outperformed the Inverse ETFs shorting the markets today and all week big time, and I mentioned it several times recently.
__________________________________________________________
Check out how UVXY did today in comparison with some of the other shorting tools on the market indexes:
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) -NYSEArca
31.18 Up 4.38(16.34%) 3:27PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price โ UVXY Up 16%+ today!
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF (TZA) -NYSEArca ๎ฃ Watchlist
11.37 Up 0.65(6.06%) 3:26PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS) -NYSEArca ๎ฃ Watchlist
19.01 Up 0.94(5.20%) 3:26PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) -NYSEArca ๎ฃ Watchlist
21.19 Up 0.71(3.47%) 3:25PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) -NasdaqGM ๎ฃ Watchlist
24.03 Up 1.61(7.18%) 3:25PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
______________________________________________________________________
On August 11, 2015 at 8:34 am,
Shad says:
Doc โ Volatility is gradually starting to rear itโs head. Check out the action in UVXY recently. I know you donโt really swing trade often, but this one has been a blast lately. Rather than shorting the markets lately, Iโve just been buying UVXY during extreme complacency and then selling when the markets gets roiled and it spikes up.
Iโd really enjoy any thoughts you have on the VIX and volatility possibly returning due to the topping pattern in the general markets. Cheers!
On August 11, 2015 at 3:51 pm,
Shad says:
OK โ After looking at charts for the general indexes, high flying stocks in the tech and healthcare sector, reading about 10 articles on the general markets and volatility I just picked up a small position in the afterhours trading in UVXY at $26.50, which is not bad considering I sold my prior position at $27.38 earlier today. If the general markets are to the downside again tomorrow, then this should do well, but Iโll have to wait until the pre-markets to see what the lay of the land is. Good luck tomorrow in your trading Doc Charley.
On August 11, 2015 at 9:50 pm,
Shad says:
Those were a few of the articles I read today that makes me think volatility may return to the marketplace in a big way in the next 2 months, and why starting to build a position in VIXY or UVXY may be prudent. (not investment advise).
Anyone else have any thoughts on taking advantage of the complacent marketplace and the present very low volatility readings?
On August 12, 2015 at 3:58 am,
Shad says:
Wow! I just sold my UVXY position in the pre-market trading for $30.00, for a 13% profit from afterhours to premarket. Thank you China!!
On August 12, 2015 at 6:51 am,
Shad says:
(UVXY) surged 11-14% this morning in pre-market and early morning action.
On August 12, 2015 at 10:12 am,
Shad says:
Agreed Silverdollar. This has been a very positive morning in a number of stocks in the PMs up 8-12%. Itโs refreshing to see the August pop continuing on, and as mentioned last week as the preferred scenario that would play out.
In addition, I posted quite a bit yesterday on the extreme low volatility levels, and made a nice 13+% profit in UVXY from afterhours yesterday to premarket today.
On August 13, 2015 at 12:06 pm,
Shad says:
This is precisely why I think over the next 2 months that volatility will rear its head and that UVXY will be a nice hedge to that chaos.
On August 18, 2015 at 8:56 pm,
Shad says:
Doc, as discussed last week; one place Iโm going to start allocating money over the next few months is in volatility. VIXY and UVXY are two good vehicles for this. With the VIX at such lows, it only has one general direction to go from here over the next 6-12 months and this is up. If things get wonky everywhere else, this is one area that will do OK and a good place to hide in the coming crazy period.
On August 20, 2015 at 4:48 am,
Shad says:
Lately though, Iโve been picking up positions in UVXY, and Doc mentioned VIXY. Both are excellent vehicles to play the rise in volatility from these extremely low positions now, to heightened panic mode in 2 months without shorting the indexes themselves, so that is another strategy. I got that idea from the book โAftershockโ by Robert Wiedemer for when the stock markets correct.
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) -NYSEArca
31.44 Up 4.64(17.31%) 4:00PM EDT
After Hours : 32.61 Up 1.17 (3.72%) 4:17PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
Up 21% today from open to after-hours trading……Yup!
Shad, I’m going to continue to add to vixy and fxp.
Nice!
Doc – Both are up handsomely today again, but I cashed out of my UVXY position upon the sage advice from Chris Temple. ๐
If stocks reverse hard in a snapback rally next week, then I’ll probably go back in and do it again, rinse and repeat….
shad…. nice.
did you ride JNUG up last couple of days?
No – I sold out of my JNUG earlier in the week. I did ride a a partial Argonaut Gold position, a nice Americas Silver Corp position, a nice Sandstorm Gold position, as small Mandalay Resources poistion, a small Sierra Metals position, a partial position in Stillwater mining, and picked up a nice position in Coeur this morning that appreciated nicely throughout the day. I also have some other smaller explorers like Rye Patch, Exeter, Platinum Group Metals, Torex Gold, Jaguar Mining, Golden Queen and a few others that didn’t do much, but I’m holding these as takeover targets.
There are a bunch of other companies that I really want a position in when Gold & Silver bottom later this year, that I held off buying this week. (Kirkland Lake, Lake Shore Gold, Klondex, Pretium, Claude, Randgold, Silver Standard, Hecla, Alexco, Avino, Endeavour, Fortuna, McEwen, GoGold, Detour, Iamgold, and Yamana). I have traded some of those very recently, but don’t hold them currently.
I’m still cautiously optimistic in the short term, bearish mid term, and bullish long term.
One stock I regret selling last week was Romarco. I made a nice profit, but dang it just kept going. You can’t win em’ all though, and I wasn’t sure if Gold was going to keep going this week or not. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
You cannot win them all Shad and always remember that a profit is definitely a profit!
I would agree regarding the short term, but if we get a very strong short term market, I would extend my opinion definitely at least to the mid-term!
I just picked up a JNUG position, since the price of Gold just bounced but the miners haven’t yet. We’ll see. This will likely just be a day trade for me.
JNUG – 11:31:54
Bought shares @ $11.3599
I also like how on the hourly charts JNUG just put in 3 higher bottoms ($10.85, $11.04, $11.29). That was my que to give it a try, but we’ll see how it goes.
Nice pop in PMs but tempered a bit at the close by short term owners. (Shad) Question is, what will happen tomorrow? Will today’s sellers be regretting their sales or will they be smiling? I’m holding and will accept if I have to a closing of the gap on HUI.
Doc: Have a gander at Micron. Several days ago you commented that it was in it’s own bear market. Great call and hope you were able to profit from your statement and belief.
Doc is one of the better traders out there!
Doc is one of the better humans out there !
Both he and Judy (his wife) certainly are. Kathy, I, Cory and Shannon can definitely attest to that!
Silver, micron has further pain ahead and in fact I believe you get a sharp turndown yet for about 5 trading days and then you finally get a move up. I’ll be able to tell more when it trades off yet for the next week.
Hi-Ho Silverdollar!
I actually have no idea at this point on Gold tomorrow as it made it up to $1155-$1156 in afterhours trading but hasn’t blown through it or reversed down. (Gold is in limbo at a key target)…. I guess that is why they call it resistance. I slightly trimmed down one position today in Sierra Metals and left the rest of my mining positions in place planning on a bullish Friday. I’m following Gary’s lead on holding onto positions and letting them work, as I’ll admit to leaving some money on the table the last week or two selling a bit early a few times. I am not quite as bullish as Gary on the length and altitude of this gold markets, but greatly respect his opinion. I’m more in Doc & Chris’s camps that this is a tradable rally, but that it will reverse back down in the not so distant future. For today & tomorrow I remain a partial position bull ๐
Gold Likely Has a Date With $1,300 โ ETF Securities
By Sarah Benali of Kitco New
Wednesday August 19, 2015
http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-08-19/Gold-Likely-Has-a-Date-With-1-300-ETF-Securities.html
Bob Farrell who was chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch back then, and one of the greatest technical analysts ever, thought the move by the S&P in mid-August 1982 was just a trading move at the time. He didn’t immediately recognize that the great secular stock bull market of 1982 – 2000 was coming out of the gates. It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
O boy, isn’t that the truth, Mr. Corrupts!
PC:
Indeed. It’s a lot easier to make predictions about the past.
Ha! You crack me up Bob M.
REally? Barb must have told you that!
Here’s a modified Schiff fork applied to the entire bear market in gold. The action today looked promising but the bulls better follow through tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=9&dy=0&id=p66955814986&a=421374470
However… the picture looks quite a bit better when we apply the same fork to gold itself instead of GLD.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=9&dy=0&id=p95482019600&a=421375911
Nice forking gold chart.
Yes, I’ve notice that GLD has diverged a bit from spot Gold in it’s chart pattern. I don’t really trade it often, because I like trading the miners, ETFS, and streaming companies.
In this case I think the culprit is simply that the two have different trading hours. For a clear example of the difference that can make, take a look at silver and SLV on the day they made their 2014 low.
Here’s Sprott’s PHYS with the usual Andrew’s pitchfork (and it looks good):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PHYS&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p42538576837&a=370904138&listNum=1
That’s a good point about the different trading hours.
A modified “Shiff Fork”?
Common man!
That’s Schiff with a C. No relation to Peter that I know of. ๐
http://www.pitchforkplayground.com/modified-schiff-pitchfork/
Btw, I just applied it to a long term chart of gold and it fit very well. (I used the February 2001 low as the starting point rather than the July 1999 low.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&st=1981-04-08&en=today&id=p49428408159&a=421389287
I need to quit forkin around! ๐
The Screwtape Files called a bottom for gold on July 9th 2015 of U$1,081/oz.
Jason Zweig got a mentioncalling sell on gold and calling it a pet rock at…yes you guessed it…the very bottom $1,080/oz day.
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.ca/2015/07/1081-gold-bottom.html
“I’m not expecting the 61.8% fib level to be hit.
Time is running out for buyers in my opinion, and the next leg of the secular bull is likely to be the most explosive and volatile we’ve seen since the late 1970s, so hang on tight. “
Thanks for the link and for reminding us of all the funny MSM hit pieces done on gold at the time. Based on the ridiculousness and number of them they sure could have marked the bottom.
Great point, Matthew. (As always, I might add!)
Gabriel:
I’m skeptical of those who claim to be able to pick price points but he called it in both time and close enough for government work in price. And I think he is right about it being explosive. I just hope people will continue to call for $800 gold for a long time.
Mathew:
I was linking to many of the gold haters on the 30th of July. The full moon did turn out to be a turning point.
Yes, I remember that. You also wrote something about that Jason Zweig if I’m not mistaken.
Let’s see Gabriel, Zweig could be the next very big hero.
Something is wrong however, the decline is beginning again, the market is not just readjusting itself, I think we will soon see the collapse of a a major financial group or bank. Just because this hasn’t happened in The US is meaningless it could happen anywhere including England, Germany, or China. We will see soon. DT
Are you saying, Mr. Tracy, that somebody or some organization knows something that we don”t? I would guess that is a real possibility.
Gold has been going up under no news (except September QE expectation). However, stock has tumbled, which does not confirm this reason. Anyone knows why?
Stocks are going to have a bear market even if there is more QE just as gold went into a bear despite QE. It’s simply time. Stocks are expensive, the economy is heading down, and the precious metals sector is cheap.
Common sense, of course Matthew. Unfortunately common sense does not seem to be the Oder of the day.
The kind of sense that’s common is to blame for a lot of problems!
I haven’t seen this type of run for several years. If gold run up another 20 dollars, I would feel some major fundamental change has happened.
I personally agree with you, Laurence.
I would bet that the real professionals realize the over-valued nature of the market! How about you, Laurence?
If you are asking me, I feel Canadian market is undervalued. Considering the current zero interest rate, loose credit and PPT acting constantly in the market, US market should be fine as well. I still have my position in US large cap dividend fund and I am not getting out, since every time I tried to get out, market just reverse and shoot higher. It is frustrating. I rather lose money in that since my gold and oil is 10 times larger.
NorthKorea leader Kim Jong Un orders frontline army to enter state of War from 5pm Friday .
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-08/21/c_134539439.htm โฆ
He is either crazier than a loon or simply blowing smoke. I think that he is wired a bit loosely but I would bet that he is simply flexing, certainly not his, muscle!
He needs an enemy. North Korea social system is reaching an dead end.
He did not make it work. Did he?
So is a war the cure? That would bring him nothing but trouble!
He is barking only dog.
A major low for commodities is coming soon:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=M&yr=11&mn=11&dy=11&id=p40861363256&a=418727616
The SHCOMP (Shanghai) now sits at 3507……and we shall see very shortly if there will be a bounce or the crash continues. It is going to be a very bad omen if this one falls through the floor knowing as we do that it is a poor showing of stock market performance that leads to economic softening and recession and not the other way around. So is China heading for a Japan style bust? It could well be. But I suspect that even if their current GDP growth is even 3% or 4% that itself could be wiped away just as fast as the corporate failures and defaults start to arise in the aftermath of stock crash and the rise of unemployment that invariably follows. The glory days of an export led growth renaissance are gone for now and the pieces will have to be tallied and the accounts balanced where huge mismatches between assets and liabilities cannot be closed in any way other than direct state interventions, bankruptcies or defaults. So we wait……we wait to see if the Shanghai and other major indices can stage a late recovery or if this bear will morph into a full fledged earth shaking crash from which no ordinary recovery is any longer possible. It’s bad news for all of us sorry to say.
The Dow has fallen as much as 570 pts (so far) since I made the following comment on Wednesday:
On August 19, 2015 at 8:22 pm,
Matthew says:
More downside does look imminent for stocks:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p59463044377
The S&P fell 67 pts.
Today’s pullback in the miners should be bought. Yesterday’s gaps are getting filled.
In the “picture’s worth a thousand words” department:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt082115/gdx_vol_sig.png
Thanks for the Morris Hubbartt video post, as they are always informative.
Matthew….what do you think the odds are of a Monday market meltdown judging by the past few days declines?
I think the odds are pretty good but the market is already oversold on the daily chart so if the losses get much greater today, then Monday could see a bounce. In other words, a panic washout today could cause some short covering.
We’ll have a better idea after the close but whatever happens, major rallies should be sold in my opinion.
Good points. There should be surprise action near the close. My sense is this thing just picked up momentum with the fall below 2000 S&P and since we are only three days into the decline that this should comfortably carry on into the next couple of trading days next week. Guess we will see how resolved the shorts are. They have been waiting so long for a decent kill they may just hold on for the whole feast. Especially since the market had become so complacent and bulls still quite dominant despite the warning signs. Have a look at the DOW……there is very little support right now until 16,500 and to me that suggests that if we don’t get there today then Monday could be bloody Monday.
By the way….it IS quiet around here today.
The Dow is down 5.6% this week and twice that when priced in gold. Nevertheless, the breakdown vs the USD is further along so being short stocks and long gold looks more appealing than being short stocks and long dollars (but I’m biased, too ๐ ).
It’s pretty quiet around here today; I wonder if many got caught with too much exposure to stocks.
I am counting on PPT to save me ๐
LOL ๐ฎ
I am suspicious this is another fake out again. Clearly price suppression is going on in PMs to allow the large investors to position themselves in gold before they let it pop. How long that takes is unknown. The detection of huge sell transactions in the slow part of the trading day in foreign exchanges like Singapore indicates an attempt to conceal the transaction and avoid scrutiny in the US market. Whose behind this probably includes Central Banks. Some people say live with it. That’s a cop out to fraud and corruption.
It is definitely a cop out to fraud an corruption, Major!
From Tom McClellan on Aug 19th.
Bottom Line: Gold is starting its
rebound, and disbelief is still widespread.
Thatโs good news for the survivability
of the uptrend.