Recent Movement in Gold
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Craig Hemkey from TFMetalsReport.com chats about the upward move in gold and how deflationary concerns are in investors minds.
- Segment 2: Chuck Provini, President and CEO of Natcore Technology, discusses the impact of eliminating silver from solar cells.
- Segment 3: Marin Katusa of Katusa Research focuses on the oil price and the recent movement in gold.
- Segment 4: Axel Merk of Merk Investments discusses why he is shorting the conventional markets.
- Segment 5: A new guest Tim Oliver at www.timoliver.us is helping the mining industry analyze the quality of economic studies throughout the sectors.
- Segment 6: Jeff Pontius, CEO of Corvus Gold, provides us with his insights of the falling markets.
- Segment 7: Chris Temple of The National Investor chats about how the major drop in the market this week changes the outlook.
- Segment 8: We wrap up the show with Brien Lundin of the New Orleans Investment Conference chatting about the weakness and volatility in the US markets.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
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Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
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I’ll be hosting a conference call to this morning, 9 am pacific time. Everyone is welcome to join. I’m going to cover the weekend report and what is happening in the stock market, gold and commodity markets. Then I’ll take questions for those that want to learn a little bit about cycles analysis.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/08/smt-conference.html
SEG 2……….great heads up on Natcore
Thanks Frank
Agree but when does Natcore’s technology go mainstream? And if so will the price of silver get seriously hobbled?
When I checked yesterday, Natcore was down 4%.
Fairly volatile of late Dai Uy
If the Natcore technology is as good as it very well me be, It would seem that it will take an army of Patent Attorneys to defend the technology from International patent piracy. I’m a small shareholder.
Maybe Dai Uy, maybe. We too are shareholders.
Baby thrown out with bathwater perhaps?
I personally don’t see the price of silver getting seriously hobbled.
Me neither, Al. Silver a hell of a lot cheaper than those damn attorneys(see my above comment).
DU
True!!
NATCORE……………..is a long term play………….if they can stay in business….jmho
BTW……..I LIKE THE IDEA……………..
DITTO!!
SEG 4……..GOOD grease from AXEL M…………..
Thank you Frank.
The worst of the panic maybe over but not the worst of the prices. Think about the forced liquidation still to come out of broker’s accounts. Banks will need more money! DT
Probably so Mr. Tracy.
I am now very busy cleaning up our site which has turned into a Judism, Zionism etc. site.
NO MORE!
This is not directed to you Mr. Tracy
I must have missed a lot in just one short day. Go for it Al…kick the bums out. I agree with what Chris. This is a commodities investment site, not a forum for crazy religious zealots.
Amen, Bird!
ALL RIGHT…BIG Al
As we have been saying Mr. Tracy, This coming week will be more than a little interesting don’t you think?
Nor I trust towards those who support Bob Moriarty Al?!
PS: Be nice to know your views on some of these topics Al.
Will be in a Daily Editorial within the hour, Reverend.
Sorry Turd but gold bottomed last year at $1130, not 1150.
I was thinking the same thing, but I believe he was discussing the March 2015 lows when he was discussing that point.
Tim Oliver – great interview segment – something new and relevant, especially right now!
A perfect storm likely to blow up by year end. Egon von Greyerz says gold going to $2k and silver to $50.
He sees the market going down 30% or maybe more……….that would be Dow 12,600 or lower.
Note ………..HE says…..”60 to 90 DAYS”….silver in 90day $50 .., IRISH WILL LIKE THIS CALL……..
US to…Jerry!!1….ha!!!
to…too..:)
$2.5 TRILLION wiped out in 4 days…of this week………HELLO…………
One thing, Bill Fleckenstein’s interview on 2 August was a real peach, since he was starting up his short fund again. What amazing timing. king has some great interviews and some bad ones these days but the Fleckenstein one was excellent.
Now where did we hear gold 2000 and silver 50 before? Was it Sprott last year? Or the year before? I don’t recall.
I don’t understand von Greyerz’ reasoning here. Why would people buy silver upto $50 on a stock market collapse if it is only going to be -30%? That’s not even as much as in 2000-2002 or 2007-2009 crashes. It makes no sense to me. If the stock market crashes -70% in the next month then maybe.
Pretty good point Silverbug Dave.
These guys have been saying the same sensationalist crap for years and years.
Right now the technicals are not supporting Mr. von Greyerz’ view of near term racheting up of gold and silver. If the technicals change, I’ll certainly sound the warning bell but right now the PM stocks are struggling especially since gold moved up $7 dollars on Friday while a number of the PM stocks actually declined. That is not a good indication for the recent rise in the PMs. I believe we will continue to see the final plunge in the commodity sector over the rest of this year while the PMs will hold up pretty well compared to the conventional markets.
Doc – good points on the fact that Gold went higher on Friday, but that the mining stocks did not confirm, and in large majority of the miners, they actually went down as Gold climbed to its highest level in the last few weeks. That showed weakness in the move to me. Also, once Gold got above $1155-$1160 I would have expected a charge to $1179-$1180…..but it stalled out at around $1160 and miners pulled back.
I don’t like conpiracy theory but …
No way! This is happening few days after TianjinBlast, tonight .
ZiboBlast in another Chinese city in Shandong province.
Interesting Gabriel!
Hope not. What’s puzzling is the series of disasters one flows the other. It has been quiet for years.
Excellent show Al, yet again!
Would like to hear Doc and Rick again ASAP and it’s great to have the weekend show combined with the daily editorials.
Many, many thanks Silverbug Dave!
You’re so welcome Al! I can hardly wait until Monday to see what goes on in the markets.
Me too Silverbug Dave. I wonder if there will be a snapback rally in the general markets on investors (buying the dip) or if the markets will continue to sell off, showing the tone and confidence of the general markets is starting to crater.
Looks like it’s the latter, and confidence is cratering.
Letter To LeclaiRyan from an Allied Nevada shareholder Case 15-10503-MFW
Dear Sir,
It is with regret I pen this letter to you regarding the conduct of some of your attorneys, namely the professionals assigned the case noted above, Allied Nevada Gold Corp, currently in Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the court for the district of Delaware.
In order for you to fully understand the implications and severity of this email, I suggest you read the attached document. This document is a pro se filing by one of the shareholders. The motion filed was today upheld by the Hon. Mary Walruth, and will be heard on September 11th, in the court for the district of Delaware.
Firstly, a brief background to put you in the picture. Leclairryan were appointed legal counsel for the Official Committee of Equity Security holders of Aliied Nevada Gold Corp. Your company took over the role of representing the EC from Susman Godfrey amid conflict of interest speculation. The US Trustee for the district of Delaware appointed an Equity Committee for the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case 15-10503.
An omnibus hearing took place in court yesterday 20th August, Judge Mary Walruth presiding.
It is apparent from recent filings by Leclairryan that they are in fact acting in collusion with debtors counsel. Recent filings suggest they are not acting in the interests of the EC and the shareholders they represent. I am incredulous at how for example your attorney, Gregory Mascitti can state to the court that the request in the pro se motion (attached document) for an examiner to investigate Insider trading claims is not necessary as an investigation has already been carried out. Really, by whom? One would have thought that legal representation for the EC would encourage an independent investigation into these claims. Another example of poor legal representation may be the withdrawal of an objection to Extend Exclusivity from the debtors (docket 877 – Prime Clerk). If one reads the initial objection from Leclairryan (Docket 670 – Prime Clerk), one would have to ask the question why withdraw the objection? What has changed? By withdrawing the objection, the path is laid open and clear for the debtors to be the only ones allowed to file a Plan of Reorganisation. Surely a legal team representing the interests of the EC would be in favour of, as Docket 670 suggests, allowing more than one POR to be seen by the court in an attempt to recover Equity for shareholders.
continued..http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116388619
Thanks Markedtofuture and also for the “continued”
Great show Al. That letter highlights how potentially fabricated the chapter 11 is. This paragraph is amazing.
Mr Leclair, your company, is representing the Official Committee of Equity Security Holders of Allied Nevada Gold Corp, as appointed by the US Trustee. As the motion attached states, $1.1B in assets has been written down in 6 short months. A valuation for the debtors by Moelis and Company, which stated that the companies enterprise value was now between $200m-$300m, also states that the valuation was not done in accordance with US law and they even wrote in a ‘get out clause’ to their own valuation that it was – and I quote – ‘ not necessarily indicative of actual value, which may be significantly higher or lower than the estimate herein ‘. Seriously, who makes a valuation and then puts in a sentence such as this one?
Trying to figure out when the peak is reached is impossible for all but a few market readers, most of the majority expects The Bull Market to go on and on. Few people are like Bob M , they don’t like to make dire predictions, some like Bankers and advisors don’t want to say anything because they have so much invested in a portfolio of unsold stocks. Think of the hedge funds out there that are holding stocks because the securities are not digestible but they can be lumped with other investments and peddled to the unwary public through pension funds etcetera. If there are hundreds of trillions of dollars in hedge funds the shelves of these companies must be waited down with securities. How do you compute how many North Americans directly or indirectly hold stocks on margin. It’s been a great summer so far weather wise but otherwise we could be headed for a tropical hurricane blowing down main street America. That is my realistic outlook. DT
I would agree at this point, DT.
Where to from here?
Stockman says this is just the beginning of the downturn.
The Pup says the conventional market is still in a bull market and it’s time to buy
Panic on Wall Street – Get Out Your Shopping List!
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/panic-wall-street
Celente called for a crash by the end of the year.
So what do you think will happen from here? Will the market go back up, correct more then go back up, crash or go sideways? What are you doing with your cash?
I am not doing any buying right now Eddie. The latest purchase of mine was the short on the S&P which I discussed earlier.
You have said in the past you are diversified and have money in the conventional markets. Did you also sell your conventional market stocks and/or mutual funds?
No, and my reasoning can be found in my article in our latest newsletter.
@Ebo
I know nuttin’ but John Murphy says October 2014 lows must hold – that doesn’t mean they will hold.
http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20150822-1.html
-looking at the link – might be a members only message.
Egon von Greyez makes some good points…of course he has making these for years, though.
Thanks Irwin, that’s a good reminder to use more of what stockcharts has to offer! That’s a very interesting piece.
Good link. I think things are going to get very rough for the average person in this country. I would recommend this read by Alan Watts.
The wisdom of insecurity : a message for an age of anxiety
Thanks, I found it for free:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/49037178/The-Wisdom-of-In-Security-by-Alan-Watts#scribd
Btw, Ebolan, you’re not our long lost friend Ken, are you? Your sense of humor and a few other things have had me wondering.
Yup, Matthew, you are right…dang…your detective skills are stellar.
I sensed you were still here but it’s great to KNOW it!
And thanks for not denying it just to have some fun with me! lol 🙂
I think Big Al Korelin is right when he says there is a real sense of community here.
KEN YOUR BACK>>>HOLY HECK!!! Man!!
He’s BEEN back but incognito. I think Ken has been here since day one when the comment section first started.
Thanks, I found it for free:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/49037178/The-Wisdom-of-In-Security-by-Alan-Watts#scribd
Glad you found it. I am on my way to the library to check it out, an excuse to ride my bike as I need the excercise for my health. I will most likely buy a hard copy version for my collection but will also down load it to my tablet.
I have read some quotes from it in other books. Here’s a good one:
“If happiness always depends on something expected in the future, we are chasing a will-o’-the-wisp that ever eludes our grasp, until the future, and ourselves, vanish into the abyss of death.”
That’s a good one, especially for someone like me that tends to live in both the future and the past but rarely in the present -the only one of the three that actually exists!
Ken – awesome. I am a huge Alan Watts fan, and have over 90 audio files, 50 CDS, 40 cassette tapes, 2 VHS tapes, and about a dozen books. I have refined a number of my Western thought processes with his easy to understand “East meets West” approach. +10!
I’ve been reading some books by Richard Rohr and he quotes Watts. Here is an interesting video by Rohr. I don’t agree with all that he says but I think he is correct about the first and second half of life concept and that suffering can be an agent for trasnformation but unfortunately for most people it turns them bitter, myself included.
I’d recommend watching the whole video if you can but if not check it out around 19:30 and 22:15.
Thanks, I’ll check it out. I get a lot of nuggets from people that I don’t entirely agree with. In fact, overhearing some of the material I entertain, my wife often asks “what heck are you listening to?!”
Here are a couple more interesting links:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9JgLgBtV-M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDd-_Mdeksc
Even within the seemingly most unacceptable and painful situation is concealed a deeper good, and within every disaster is contained the seed of grace. Throughout history, there have been women and men who, in the face of great loss, illness, imprisonment, or impending death, accepted the seemingly unacceptable and thus found “the peace that passeth all understanding.”
Many thanks Ken. I will definitely watch it.
Here’s another.
Even within the seemingly most unacceptable and painful situation is concealed a deeper good, and within every diaster is contained the seed of grace. Throughout history, there have been women and men who, in the face of great loss, illness, imprisonment, or impending death, accepted the seemingly unacceptable and thus found “the peace that passeth all understanding.”
Good stuff Ken. I resonate with this premise, have held this philosophy for some time in my personal experiences, read and listen to many great thinkers, philosphers, and personal development coaches, that have a similar message. Thanks for the great posts.
I wish the Dow would just drop to 0 so I can make some coin $horting it. 🙂
Probably won’t happen Jason. Even a 20% bust looks far away today. But lets keep the seat belts on just in case because the whole market has now become believers and that forecast instability and possible sharp declines.
For my part I am trying my best to tune out the gloom and all the guys who keep top-calling (and have been doing so for years now) that are suddenly streaming out of the woodwork with “I told you so” commentaries”.
Bunch of stopped clocks. Give me a break!!!
I won’t read another word from any of them because they are just repeating the same damned message except with a little wind to their backs since we FINALLY had a decline they could sink their tired out canines into.
So almost nobody gets a gold star here. Certainly not Egon or the regulars at KWN. Those repeated gloom messages have long since been invalidated just because they were wrong for so long.
You know who I appreciate though. Tom Mclellan. Rather than make a hundred false calls about the top he came out last week and just stated that this was it…THE top in stocks would arrive in just a few days. Not bad at all.
I thought that was pretty good. And it was the first time in about a year I actually took the warning seriously. Guess I just had more confidence in him than the rag tag army of gloom-meisters who spent each month of the last seven years warning that the end was near.
Too damn funny….and now they think they should get accolades! Ha!
Market timer Tom McClellan sees stocks set up for ‘ugly decline’ — Marketwatch Aug 20, 2015
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timer-tom-mcclellan-sees-stocks-set-up-for-ugly-decline-as-early-as-thursday-2015-08-17
Completely agree with you Bird. Hope you don’t put us in that category by the way!
Al, I think most people on this site have been bearish stocks since at least late 2011. You and Jeff Deist and others here were bearish in early 2013 while I was talking about a possible target for the Dow of 19,000. However, I wasn’t bullish enough as I called for “16,000 or a bit more in 2014.”
You are off the hook Al. Your show has plenty of balance.
Listener-Bird,
I understand your disappointment with the culture of doom & gloom and the broken clock analogy that consumes most alternative thinkers minds. It without question gets tiring and to be honest it has consumed me at times throughout the years because there is some truth in whats being spoken.
But more recently I have tried to find greater balance in life and understand that there is very little an individual can effect other than making and clearing ones own mind and perspectives and transition to a more balanced and realistic mindset from an internal vantage point.
Its OK to recognize that there are many things that are seriously wrong in the world that will very likely come to pass, while simultaneously still trying to find wise and realistic investing objectives and a healthy personal balance while acknowledging the limits of what we personally can control in everyday life.
Relating to the KWN hype show, I have taken that site with a huge grain of salt for a couple of years and realized when using commonsense that its there to produce and generate advertising and funding through a social shock doctrine blueprint. I do respect and listen to a few of the commentators there, but I also understand that I must hold myself accountable for my own gullibility in over-hyped talking points.
I will say I was very disappointed that Egon has jumped on the PM price prediction bandwagon like all the other old and tired broken clocks in this sector and talked about $2,000 gold and $50 dollar silver in 2015.
Man what an Orwellian distorted world we live in. It has never been more important in modern history IMO to get your personal mind right, find that delicate balance between non-stop targeted BS and actionable reality and start to believe in yourself and stop believing in fantastical charlatans of never ending doom & gloom.
Do what you can to prepare and then go live life.
Great comment Vortex. I especially liked the part where you mention actionable reality.
+1. Nice one Vortex.
Best to you,
LPG
LPG, thank you.
Best to you as well.
V
Great thoughts as per usual Vortex. Very well said.
Thanks Shad,
I always appreciate your excellent content as well.
V
Vortex – Your last paragraph deserves repeating:
“Man what an Orwellian distorted world we live in. It has never been more important in modern history IMO to get your personal mind right, find that delicate balance between non-stop targeted BS and actionable reality and start to believe in yourself and stop believing in fantastical charlatans of never ending doom & gloom.
Do what you can to prepare and then go live life.”
_________________________________________________________
I concur that we live in a more globalized, central planned, big government surveillance (big brother), more laws/less freedoms, and wacky world, but it is still a great world too. It is important to live life instead of perpetually planning for the unknown.
Have a plan and set your sails, but also to enjoy the process. Life’s not a point you arrive at or a certain destination you must arrive at; it’s a musical vibration, a field of endless potentiality and creativity, and its people, relationships, community, the natural world, your spiritual substance, your health, your vitality, the limited resource of time, and the wonderful opportunity we have every day we wake up and take our first breath. Sometimes it is nice to remember life isn’t about charts, economies, global tensions, currency markets, or what will happen to bond yields. I may put my money where my mouth is and take my girl on a sunset walk. Cheers!
Probably not going to happen, Jason!
Good thoughts Listener.
I almost posted in response to the egon link at kwn, “The issue with his comments are they are on kwn”.
The place really has lost a lot of credibility, with few exceptions.
I continue to be amazed by the popularity of that site, bb. Nobody ever learns. As far as I am concerned if those Doomer’s did not (or cannot) make bucks drinkiing their own Kool-Aid now that a decline has actually arrived they deserve to miss the boat again.
But you know what? I bet most of them chickened out when the day arrived and are still too wary to buy miners and also too nervous to go short the indices either. Just proves its all meant for entertainment alone and not investment insights.
I think it’s perverse that the masses don’t have the same vitriol for establishment paper-pushers as they do for so-called “gloom and doomers.”
First of all, it shows massive ignorance or at least some twisted values if people can’t see that there is plenty of doom and gloom already and it is getting worse (and I’m not just talking economics and markets).
Second, it is very telling that the sheeple take someone like Puplava seriously even as he advises tax avoidance as a reason to stay invested in stocks as he did in this week’s show. If a gold dealer said the same thing, he’d be torn apart but when a popular paper dealer says it everyone nods in agreement while trying to look smart.
GOOD POINT………….
I am not “the masses” Matthew. I just don’t appreciate bad analysis no matter where it comes from and in the case of stocks all the negative talk kept a whole lot of people on the sidelines who have NEVER benefited even up to this very day from the biggest bull in recent history.
And what the hell was in it for them?
Whether it was pumping gold and silver all through a brutal bear market or disssing stocks even as they roared ahead to recent highs, none of it was productive and those who tuned in a heeded the siren calls of doom became road-side casualties of a seriously flawed investment philosophy.
Its why I cannot stand the religion of gold-bugs. Bunch of stick in the mud dullards and small thinkers even after a 7 year bull market! And yet they cannot make simple obvious observations that might actually pay off.
I posted charts on sugar yesterday as one single example. Shad was the only person who responded and I give him plenty of credit for paying attention. That is one great trade in the works and we are likely weeks from the final bottom so its a no-brainer to call.
In 2012 sugar was trading at 35 dollars. Today you can buy in nearer to 10 and just a few dollars makes a 50% gain if you only play it straight as an ETF. Out of all the difficult dumb stuff we all do sometimes trying to make a few bucks here or there this one is virtually guaranteed to pay off and you can just go to sleep and let it ride for the long term with little worry (if the commodity bull does in fact resume).
Meanwhile, many of the folks who come here still fixate on gold and silver in isolation. It makes me crazy they ignore almost the entirety of the resource sector where very clear obvious upside potential is already coming into view.
Like getting handed candy on a platter and saying “nawww, I will wait for a better deal”
Sheesh!
My observation was just that and not a veiled attack on you.
Okey Dokey.
Alistener, thanks for the heads up on sugar. I looked at an etf on sugar about 1 month ago and told myself I had to keep an eye on the technicals since it appeared it was getting close to a buy area. But, thanks again for bringing it up.
No problem Richard. I am happy to hear there is at least one or two others here like myself who see the opportunity. We all like a “sure thing” or its closest cousin if we can get it and I think this qualifies (coffee too once the declines are done). What I ask myself is what are the odds sugar DOESN’T bounce 50% in the next year?….and I think I may be being conservative just based on technicals because it is now priced well below its long term inflation adjusted trend line. So cheap….so good…..Yum Yum!
Although we do see a good technical bottom in the price of sugar forming up there are also fundamental reasons to now take it seriously as a sugar shortage for 2014 / 2015 is expected to arise due to a few reasons. One is that low crop prices has been discouraging to producers while the second is El Nino disruptive weather patterns could further reduce existing supplies. The current projection by Rabobank is for a global shortfall of 900,000 metric tonnes at the minimum. This I believe makes sugar a very low risk investment right now with the potential of a great upside.
Sugar shortage in 2014~2015
http://blog.propurchaser.com/2014/sugar-shortage/
Just by way of a comparison to suagr that might be helpful right now…..during late 2013 I was touting coffee when it hit what I believed was an obvious long term price bottom.
At that time I could not get anyone to talk about that chart despite a large number of posts I left on the subject that we were about to see lift off. As I recall Rick Ackerman was the only person on the site who seemed even mildly interested and he did write an article on the subject which was ignored by pretty much everyone because….well…..coffee is boring compared to gold.
Anyway, I picked off that bottom nearly to the damned day (as did Rick) and the ETF (CAFE)then went on to soar over 100% off its lows within 3 short months. Not boring at all in my books. It was a dead ringer for a profit center with virtually no risk at all.
Here is that ETF chart for a quick refresher….now sit up and pay attention because I think I have good news…….
Because coffee is currently just a nickel off its long term lows once again and is about to form a huge two year double bottom that I believe will yield even better results than the last time this happened. The outlook is quite positive in my books and we have a textbook-perfect case of a final bottom in play right now.
Gimme the Joe baby!!!!!
iPath Pure Beta Coffee ETN (CAFE) —- Yahoo.com five year chart.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CAFE+Interactive#{%22range%22:%225y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
All we need now is a rate hike to tell the market inflation is coming. There is so much to buy right now and so many opportunities in the resources and commodity sectors there is hardly time in a day to decide which one to jump on first. The great thing though is not all commod’s will bottom at once so we get the chance to play many in sequential order just by tuning in to the monthly charts (very important now in my books because this is big picture stuff that amounts to a one time career opportunity to cash in on a major trend change). What I mean by that is when we look back at miners (for example) and note that many are currently trading at 15 year lows…..we have to go all the way back to the 1970’s in some cases to see a similar opportunity of magnitude. It does take faith and belief to buy though. And we need insights into the boom / bust cycles of commodities to make the case stick. My beleif is that we will get a rate normalization process underway within months and that the inflation signal will be thee Genie coming out of the bottle. Not for most of the market of course. That buy signal is still reserved for astronauts and the intrepid who are prepared to swim against the tide when sentiment is at the bottom of a deep well (mixing metaphors here but what the hell….that’s how my brain works!)
You have a good handle on the soft commodities and I typically will follow up any mention of big changes in sugar, coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, etc… Thanks for the info and I appreciate you mentioning the ETF (SGG).
For anyone interested there is also the iPath Pure Beta Sugar ETN (SGAR) and the Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE).
Here’s an interesting article on Sugar from early August:
Top 3 Sugar ETFs
By Investopedia | August 04, 2015
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/top-3-sugar-etfs.asp?partner=YahooSA
Thanks Shad. I think I let my enthusiasm slip into my posts today though. Problem is I am more bullish coffee and sugar than gold right now. Guess we will find out Monday if metals hit their stride and keep rising but I am not all that confident on the score tonight. There is that double top in the GDXJ chart that has formed up this month and is giving me some doubts about next week.
Yeah, I’m in a similar camp to Doc in that I think things could top out this week or next in PMs, and I still expect a pullback down to lower lows staying in that falling wedge pattern later this fall.
As for some of the other commodities, it looks like they are in the bottoming process, and while there is a general trend in the commodity basket of getting close putting in its bottom, each commodity will have different drivers and technical indicators. I’ll be watching soft commodities for the next 2 weeks to see how sugar, coffee, corn, soybeans, etc… are patterning.
I WILL REPEAT…TURD seems like a real, cool – sharp dude!! Right on Turd!!1
ditto
Yes, I get a kick out of TF – Chris H. He has a funny and informed chat room, or blog responses as well. I just listen and read on that site, but occasionally follow up on stock leads and articles posted there.
Meanwhile at the Pulava residence:
Ryan Puplava on 15 August:
FSNewshour: 2015-08-15
… Pull back this fall
“We might see a pop early next week”
FSNewshour: 2015-08-22
Panic on Wall Street – Get out your shopping list
Jim Puplava does everything he can to explain away last week’s drop in the stock markets.
Nothing to see here, move along please, buying opp coming soon.
Jim P thinks there might be a 10% correction in stocks.
I think he recorded on Thursday, the Dow is already down 10%.
We just had the 50 day moving average cross below the 200 dma for the first time in five years (bear cross). Volume is high but not move-ending high except possible short term.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=4&mn=4&dy=0&id=p18588705118
The following chart can be assessed on a negative real interest rates basis for the prominent moves in a previous gold bull market(say, 73/74 and 76/80)
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/gold_bgmi_yield_curve_long_term.png
Debt has been frozen at 18.1t, we have been in extraordinary measures for 5.5 months.
Yes, government workers are paid via government debt. Private pay lawyers are not. While both add to velocity and gdp, only the govt lawyer creates debt. The govt lawyer is no different than a F16, a border agent or a light bulb, all overhead costs.
The fed has been clear it wants higher rates for 4 years. I have been clear I want free pizza and beer. Both may happen someday, rates have not risen yet because it will be catastrophic in 6-9 months. Rates will rise when Obama doesnt care if the economy tanks 6- 9 months in the future. One rate hike will probably not matter, but a series of them will.
The Fed has been telegraphing rates hikes for over a year, I have told you that they lie. That they are manipulating expectations with jawboning.
I stick with my year old plus thesis, no rate hike without a stimulus. No way no how unless it occurs next summer.
Sugar and coffee are the major indicators of a bottom soon in the commodities complex. Well, besides gold.. As it is money now.
Right on Chartster! Now you are thinking just like me.
These are indeed signals for the wider resource sector and that CRY (CRB) chart I keep repetitively referring to is one of the keys to judging the wider ramifications. I want to play this in the order of the bounces without any regard whatsoever to which resource I might *want* to bounce first.
There is a very big money making opportunity shaping up this very week and it does not make a spits difference to me if gold rises or not. Actually, i would prefer gold to bide its time so i can focus on exactly those two commods you just mentioned.
Coffee and Sugar.
COPX and BCOMBO are also at or close to a bottom! The CRB is just days away from the bottom! Good stuff.
It looks like mid week will be a big change in the direction of everything!
Hurray! Team Korelin. We got three on board now. Maybe Al will do a show on this. Might be a nice break from the usual gold and silver comments. I would love to have Ricks and Docs input if they don’t mind. It is too easy to get distracted by what looks like a stock market crash and in the process miss a couple winners that are about to fly right under the damned radar without notice or remark.
Good points Chartster & A listener. I’ve been keenly watching Dr Copper, base metals, PMs, PGMs, Soft commodities, the CRB index, Potash & Fertilizers, Uranium, Oil, Nat Gas. Of course Dr. Copper is a great indicator to watch, coupled with Oil, and food for the turn. I agree that we are getting close to a bottom in commodities, and the falling dollar will assist.
I’m going to re-post a few thoughts from last month regarding cycles in commodities and the CRB index, since it relates to this conversation:
________________________________________________________________
On July 7, 2015 at 12:26 pm,
Shad says:
We are getting very close to the 7 year mark in the CRB commodity index as mentioned, so we are finally in the window of time where we’d expect a bottom to form.
Here’s a chart showing where the CRB is at:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&st=2001-01-01&en=(today)&id=p31311586902
On June 7, 2015 at 3:23 pm,
Shad says:
Cycles are not perfect and it may turn out to not be exactly 7 years for the CRB to bottom, and the bear market in Gold may stretch on for more than 4 years. Nobody really knows exactly when the reversal will be, but the recent gyrations in 2015 in the currency markets and bond markets and trepidation in stock market should be telling he who has the eyes to see and the ears to hear, that something is building and is going to break out in the next few months on a global scale…..
I personally think once we get the washout in commodities for the CRB 7 year lows, that some money will come back into the commodity sector (PMs, base metals, Uranium, Oil, specialty metals, fertilizers, food & Agriculture) but this will likely be in late July or August. I’d rather be a little early to the party later this year, and if it takes until 2016 to really get going then who cares?”
Here’s a good chart from the great site – Short Side of Long:
http://i2.wp.com/shortsideoflong.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/CRB-Index-Performance.png
On July 13, 2015 at 5:50 pm,
Shad says:
**There was a little 3 year cycle from 1999 – 2002, but prior to that was the low zone from 1992-93 to early 1999 which was also a 7 year cycle, and prior to that a low in 1986 to that late 1992-early 1993 which was also a 7 year cycle.
http://i2.wp.com/shortsideoflong.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/CRB-Index-Performance.png
On July 28, 2015 at 9:46 pm,
Shad says:
Again I could see two 7 year cycles and a 3 year cycle with a little wiggle room in between or extended 7.5 year cycles coming out close to around 18 years.
Regardless, Commodities are a cyclical industry and odds favor another 7 year low from 2009 to the end of 2015/early 2016, so I’d expect a bit more pain in commodities to form the bottom in the not-so-distant future. (under 12 months, likely in the next 6-8 months.)
Maybe this list is more helpful on CRB cycles:
– 1986 – late 1992/early 1993 (~7 year commodity cycle)
-late 1992/early 1993 – 1999 (~7 year commodity cycle)
-1999-2002 (~3 year commodity cycle)
-2002-2009 (~7 year commodity cycle)
-2009-late 2015/early 2016 (~7 year commodity cycle)??
Note to Al and Cory:
By special request, can you guys do a little coverage on coffee and sugar this week? These trades are our signals that the wider resource sector may finally be ending its long, depressing bear market and we ought to discuss it BEFORE they take off.
You know, so we can reflect back later and say nyah, nyah nyah….we called the bottom at the K-Report!
Yeah I’d appreciate that too.
Cheers.
So make that another onboard.
Would particularly like Rick A’s views on these soft commodities.
A Listener:
I like your call on coffee and sugar. That being said how can you expect a major turnaround in the price?
I remember one time I downloaded one of your more lengthy posts to read later-due to time constraints- on supply and demand.
With all the money creation since the 08 crash, one would have expected inflation in the commodities. Instead we have gotten deflation.
Commodities are cheap for a reason.
For a sustained gain, I believe things will have to change fundamentally.
I’m not trying to argue with you,rather I would be interested to hear what you think will be the catalyst that drives commodity prices other than low prices.
You downloaded one of my posts? Hell, most days I wonder if anyone ever reads my ramblings since so often there are no responses. Anyway, about those two commodities the easy answer to your question about what they will do next is that we just have to wait and see if the bottoms break or hold. This is about probabilities not sure-bets and at such lows the odds generally favour a positive outcome. Its my opinion that these two have suffered such substantial declines that the downside is going to be limited even if we do break below those long term bottoms so on a personal level I don’t feel much trepidation. Markets are interesting though in how they respond to major support levels and the odds now favour a bounce purely on a speculative basis and without regard to any fundamentals. On that note I should point out I barely ever bother trying to keep track of supply / demand, weather or agricultural policy or ag trade issues anymore because the charts do most of the work for me. I would also acknowledge prices can still fall lower and like most everyone else here my track record on predictions is not perfect even if I catch more than I lose. It’s why I am encouraging Al to take up the topic and get a little more feedback from the team on their perspectives. In the meanwhile I have not yet bought either but plan to do so this week if we hit those bottom targets. As with everything else in life, John….its not a bad idea to be cautious as we are still deflating and not everyone will agree with my investment thesis which is often contrarian and typically risky.
Right on Skeeta!
Great comments from Your side “A Listener”. Actually I am waiting for my favorite dividend-paying oil stock to come down this week but those thoughts on sugar and coffee are really interesting. The charts and fundamentals are almost compelling. However, what do You think about price manipulation of them sugar and coffee?
Thanks for Your insights.
However, one thing I don’t understand is why You would by 2 or 3 ETFs on one commodity. Or did I get You wrong?
Best regards.
Nic’
TNo, I would not be using three ETF’s. When I mentioned the names in the past it was only because I have often been asked “well how do you play that trade”. That came up most recently when I was prattling on about rough Rice back in May. In that case there is no handy ETF so its futures you would have looked at or an agriculture ETF. But those AG – ETF’s are so mixed you cannot see much of a benefit even though Rice has rallied almost 20% since I started talking about the bottom being in. My suggestion in that case was to keep an eye on Rogers Agriculture ETN (RJA) which by coincidence is also virtually at its long term 2008 / 2009 bottom. So you may want to post that one on your list as it should turn up fairly soon (my opinion). You won’t get the bang out of that trade that metals stocks offer but I suspect it will be a long term consistent play. A buy and hold in other words. Guess I am just a fan of agriculture since its in the blood from my days living on the Canadian Prairies.
About price manipulation? Well I am one of the doubters that it exists in the way so many suggest. It just a fact of life that the big trading houses work the market to their favour though but personally i would not worry about it.
Which oil stock is on your radar?
The stock I am watching is “Torc Oil & Gas”.
It hit a multi-year-low on Friday. Couldn’t get a chart where it has ever been lower.
As Gary Savage said, oil could hit a final low soon. So I am watching what will happen the coming days.
Probably I am gonna split my money and invest a bit in oil, sugar and coffee.
Or maybe gonna wait…
I would wait for the bounce too. Nobody knows what weird thing is coming at us anymore. But like you I also suspect we see oil turn up shortly (like next week).
OK…my last comment was not all that helpful. I was looking at Torc and I am not sure I like the looks of that chart Nic. There is something else to mention too. You might not want to her this though and I almost don’t want to bring it up. But here goes anyway…
Take a look at the TSX Index chart (linked below.
Does that give you a sense of confidence? What I see is a double top that is really only visible if you look at the longest chart available. It is similar enough to the same pattern that arose in 2008 to give me cause for concern especially as the TSX is so heavily weighted energy and gold.
What I see is the potential for the index to fall below 10,000 and that means we will see a bloodbath in some energy stocks as it goes down. Check it for yourself and tell me what you think. Anyone else want to weigh in?
Is the TSX hitting a huge rut in the road on its way back to 10,000? Its already down about 15% from its September 14 highs and the steepness of the decline looks a little worrisome….a little too much like how 2008 started for my liking.
S&P TSX Index Chart from the Globe and Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/indexes/chart/?q=TSX-I
Sorry Nic….forgot to post the RJA chart for you. So here is the ten year view. You can see the bottom is here now. Actually, we have dropped below the lowest close of 2009 but not the intraday low. Not sure it matters all that much but technically it broke lower. I need to dig up a better chart.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/rja/interactive-chart
Great reset coming maybe starting tomorrow ‘Black Monday’. see Bill Holter’s view on SGT.
http://sgtreport.com/
currency devaluations….??!!!= commodities…
Currency devaluations =commodities?
That is how it is suppose to work,but it doesn’t anymore.
Keynesian logic.
Instead of creating more demand for commodities by devaluing the currency,what has happened is they have created is more supply due to easy credit at the producer level, not demand and consumption at the consumer level.
Producers need to see credit evaporate,forcing them into bankruptcy,thus reducing supply.
Only then will we have a meaningful recovery in commodity prices.
With regard to the US dollar:
(I trust these comments will be considered on-topic.)
we have had views expressed in this forum about the US dollar going up to possibly 120 on the index. We have had views, on the other hand, suggesting a weakness.
I am not a chartist or cycles person, although I do try to listen to everyone and not criticize other techniques of prognostication. I am a fundamentalist, first and foremost, although I do take into consideration charts and cycles for timing.
With the RSI at 33 for $USD it could reasonably be claimed that the dollar is becoming close to oversold and thus should bounce soon and increase in value.
The main advantage the dollar has is that it is the reserve currency and for those people living in countries with weak currencies it is often considered a safe haven.
I would like to discuss, however, a fundamental reason why I expect the US dollar to drop.
What makes most of the world work is the use of energy. For the Western world that essentially means oil.
Since the price of oil has declined from over $100 dollars a barrel to about $40 a barrel, this means most importing countries do not need to hold as many dollars for oil trade. i.e. There will be a reduced demand for dollars for the biggest item in world trade.
It is for this reason; without consideration of manipulation, without conspiracy theories, that I believe we will see weakness in the US dollar index.
That’s an interesting thought CFS. I had not considered that but we have seen more than a 60% reduction in the need for dollars versus oil since the drop. Good comment.
Re: 33 RSI
On the other hand, the path could be more like the inverse of the move that kicked off the rally one year ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p59350496971&a=421662149
Thanks for sharing those intelligent thoughts.
The USD should go up short term, but not by much. It looks to be going down in value. Look at the weekly chart of the emerging currency ETF ( CEW ). It is just days away from the bottom. All of the emerging market indices and ETFs look like they will bottom this coming week. Same with the CRB. A big change happens mid week according to all these charts.
Chartster, which chart for CEW are you using? I cannot locate anything long term that shows a bottom has arrived.
Listener,
I don’t think it has bottomed yet. It looks like it’s going to get clobbered a few more days and then bottoms mid week. The weekly chart has 9 weeks down. The MACD, Slow STO, TSI and RSI are all marking a bottom ( or very close to a bottom ) with all of the emerging market charts. All of them are similar. I’m watching about 12 of them closely. CEW is the driver of those IMO. It’s all about their currency values that drives their markets. The USD going down, means the EMs go up.
Bottom line is, the emerging market currencies are in a washout phase. They are about to bottom and go up. Which means the USD has had it’s day.
Not sure if this chart will post from Yahoo on CEW but, I agree Chartster that is looks like it is definitely in oversold territory here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CEW+Interactive#{“showBollinger”:true,”showEma”:true,”emaColors”:”#cc0000″,”emaPeriods”:”50″,”emaWidths”:”1″,”emaGhosting”:”0″,”showRsi”:true,”showStoch”:true,”range”:”2y”,”allowChartStacking”:true}
Here, this is a better CEW chart that shows more data.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49957486566
THANKS FOR THE CHARTS……GUYS………..
The bottom of the CEW is the top of USD, IMO.
Nice analysis of the US dollar by Sid. Will it survive 2015 ?
Start @7:20:
Thanks Gabriel, I thought his analysis of the Dow, GDX, and the dollar were excellent (of course, that could be because I agree with him even without using EW 😮 ).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p71588383160&a=404801592
Small bearish head and shoulders top in play:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p00121648215&a=404139489&listNum=1
Thanks for all charts Matthew !
DITTO
Some tips from the “Fool” (mostly good)
Here are the last two:
* Strive for balance in your entire life. Not too much real estate. Sustainable debt. Love somebody. Get a dog. Know nothing’s more precious than time, including piles of money.
* Bonus tip: stop reading the comments section.
The last one goes for most blogs.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/08/23/chill-2/
PS: I don’t think he likes gold in any way, shape, or form.
No, he likes gold. It’s only the gold-bugs that earn his poisonous comments.
Gold is fine…..some people are idiots!
He likes gold – really?
Guess I missed that blog entry.
Just believe. Anyway, I don’t read the blog.
Actually if one can manage to live another five years or so there is interesting work going on in telomerase work at a number of Universities (e.g. Prof. Helen Blau at Stanford) SiRNA work has been shown to dramatically extend life in some organisms, and we could be approaching a point in human evolution, when life can be lengthened and the aging process reversed.
I apologize for going off-topic and will not raise this topic again unless specifically asked to do so by Big Al.
I personally believe that charts may well be the best source of timing for gold and other metal prices. We all know reasons why the price of gold and other precious metals might go up or down. They are discussed endlessly in this and other forums. We each have our own wishes, depending on whether we are long or short, but gold will not move according to our desires. It will move according to supply and demand and the purchases and sales (naked or otherwise) by those with large amounts of money. We have looked at many of the factors, and Big Al has brought many of the thoughts of other real pundits or self-acclaimed pundits to this forum. I have also brought some by citing sources. I have not often expressed my personal thoughts about how high or how low the price, or those of mining shares, will go. I have tried to mention some of the better ones.
I do not know where prices will go, and firmly believe that lack of knowledge can be very dangerous to one’s health, financial and otherwise. I wish everyone good luck, but urge everyone to be vigilant.
I do believe this time is probably going to be different.
I do know one cannot solve a debt problem by piling on more debt; one can only buy a bit of time in so doing. I see no attempt at any real solution.
I have listened to “experts” say that Gold is a safe haven, and will preserve wealth. I do not believe that to be true in the short term, but can offer no other suggestion. Gold did not preserve wealth in the great crash of the late nineteen twenties, early nineteen thirties; despite what “pundits” may claim. Go look at the real numbers for the value of shares in mining companies as proxies for the gold price over that period. Sure, AFTER the crash, when material and labor costs became very low, mining companies were exceedingly profitable and people that held on to mining shares became quite rich.
Certainly China and Russia and many Asian nations are buying Gold in quantity, as have I. (Silver too) I do it not because I am sure it will preserve my wealth, but because I cannot think of better places in which to place my wealth. I was scorned in this forum several years ago when I suggested fine art, but that did not impede my purchases of same, recognizing both the illiquidity and the high bid-ask spread of fine art.
More recently I have discussed real estate, but am concerned about governmental slow confiscation trough taxation of that store of wealth. And it is clear that also suffers from lack of liquidity and also FAILED to preserve value during the 1930s.
Lastly, I have discussed going short the general market, primarily to hedge my holdings of income stocks. Big Al is certainly correct when he encourages diversification. If only I knew the perfect combination!
These are interesting times in which we live.
May all keep well, because without health, wealth means little.
Good perspective CFS. Thanks.
Question for Canuckistanians:
What you gonna do if Mulcair becomes out next PM after Oct 19th?
I think we need a plan, but darned if I know what it would be besides stocking up on things that “hurt when they fall on your foot”.
My parents survived the Bolshevik revolution without a scratch. Arrived in Canada early 1930 and thought the Depression was a piece of cake. When you have nothing to lose and hardly any gov’t meddling, stock market crashes don’t mean shite. A bad day means the chicken stopped laying eggs, but at least you have chicken for supper that night!
Until their dying days, the sword of Damocles overhead was always that CCF and later NDP would take power. To their way of thinking, that would be the Bolsheviks all over again.
“The NDP evolved in 1961 from a merger of the Canadian Labour Congress (CLC) and the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF). The CCF grew from populist, agrarian and socialist roots into a modern socialist party. Although the CCF was part of the Christian left and the Social Gospel movement,[8] the NDP is secular and pluralistic. It has broadened to include concerns of the New Left, and advocates issues such as gay rights, international peace, and environmental stewardship.”
“New Democrats today advocate, among other things:”
……..nothing good.
Quotes from Wiki
I doubt it matters which party runs the place Irwin.
They all take their orders from Washington as far as I can tell.
Spend billions defending against isis and supporting fascists in Ukraine etc.
After watching the leaders debate it was literally the first time I felt it really doesn’t matter who wins.
Interesting MSM article on managing perceptions of the Gold Miners:
“Junior miners jump into medical marijuana, food service amid slump”
Excerpt:
“Many of the world’s junior miners are laying down their picks and shovels to start new ventures ranging from egg exporting to medical marijuana farming, as they as try to survive a crash in metals prices by shifting away from exploration.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/junior-miners-jump-medical-marijuana-144103503.html
Brian,
Just imagine the quality of their experience in medical mrijuana, food service.
They are probably good promoters and not much else……just my humble opinion.
Exactly my point, CFS !
The MSM seems to LOOK for stories that denigrate companies that mine (and provide) absolutely essential raw minerals.
What I would like to see?
A MSM entitled: “Precious metals scarcity is in your future. Ready to pay 15% more for your smart phone?”
You get the idea.
Brian
Agreed those companies are “Gold Diggers” not “Gold Miners”.
Hope you hung on to that UVXY in the end Shad because it looks like its already on its way to being a big winner one more day. Chris was saying that you basically just got lucky but I thought your buy was well timed. Go with your instincts is my mantra.
Thanks, I believe it was well-timed and put out the reasoning for about 2 weeks, and discussed it with both Doc and Al. I sold it Friday morning, before the final run up at the close. As for this morning (Monday) I don’t know what to expect so I’m on the sidelines, but if stocks continue to sell off, I could see UVXY tearing higher. My thoughts were that stocks may get a bid today by bargain-hunters and snap back. If that happens then UVXY would pull back, that it may be a better entry point.
It will be an interesting day either way. Good luck in your investing.
My screen was flashing it was up 72% at one point earlier. But was they system just going haywire? The chart was not updating and seconds later that was showing a 51% gain and blinking madly. Crazy software, man. Must be too many people pulling quotes at the same time……anyway…..it was way up. I was hoping you were not going to take Doc’s advice even though you sounded like you were getting out because there was no way in my mind the carnage was over after such a steep fall Friday in such a short time frame.
Yep, in retrospect, holding on would have been as profitable as Thursday and Friday. Doc held onto his VIXY holding, it was Chris T. that issued the warning, but I was going to take profits anyways ahead of the weekend. I really thought we could have a snap back rally today, but things got ugly, and volatility continued to spike.
UVXY was up near + 50% for the day when things opened. Crazy, just crazy.
I could kick myself straight in the arse for not buying it Friday. In fact…..wait a second…..that’s better. I just kicked myself anyway!
China appears to still be growing at about 3-4%, probably closer to 3%.
(If you measure the economy by electricity use or freight traffic.)
In order to do this they have to generate about 25 million new jobs per year!
With the Chinese stockmarket having fallen last week by 13%, potential withdrawal of Chinese money from North America will ripple through US markets, real estate and stocks. The Chinese market opens in about an hour and may provide a clue to how American markets will act in the morning.
New Zealand opens down 2%.
Australia futures indicate that will open down.
Japan opens in half hour, I think.
Most of the Asian stockmarkets are now down 2.5-3.5%
That does not augur well for Monday morning.
Thanks for the update, CFS.
Somebody has to be awake all off the time
😉
For those who can see a monthly chart, the Dow is about to fall back inside the huge megaphone pattern. I said last year that it was a bull trap and now that looks like a certainty.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58028847520&a=362096106&listNum=1
The dollar continues to defy pundits as it heads for a 4% loss during August alone even in the face of a commodity price smash and equities falling across the board. Of course, this is not supposed to happen but it continues to puzzle me about all the articles still talking about a rising dollar even as the Euro hits 1.15 this morning.
Yup, people don’t seem to get that the dollar did as well as it did in 2008 because it was coming off of its all time low while gold had just made an all time high.
People always fight the last battle.
Agree with that 100%
It is definitely looking that way Matthew. I couldn’t see your annotation on the chart, just the underlying chart, but normally it is visible. I can visualize the megaphone pattern though and concur.
I think you’ll see it if you log onto your stockcharts account and then open another tab to come here and click on my link.
As you might’ve guessed, price is now well inside the megaphone. The breakout was one big year-long bull trap.
Yeah. Sometimes stockcharts is a little funky on posting and visibility. Yes, down she goes in that megaphone pattern, and this could go on for some time as I don’t see downside support for some ways.
The Dow is now worth five times more oil than it was in the summer of 2008 but still just 50% of its 1998 high.
I think it has just put in a long term top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24WTIC&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=22&id=p76978098060&a=387565244
Commodities are a buy; the Dow is a sell.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GNX&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p97587254150&a=407527744
Dow priced in gold is oversold after serious breakdown:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p50926137969&a=416931286
EVERY crash goes to oversold Matthew. No matter what you price it in.
Nothing could be further from the truth. First, the Dow has not crashed. Second, it is just coming off of what might be a big double top when priced in oil and has one heckuva long way to go before it becomes oversold. Third, your last sentence is illogical.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p36080165064&a=421710727
Crash is a relative term. I might be using it a little loosely here but my perspective is not on the absolute number loss but rather the magnitude and speed of the declines. Anyway, we don’t need a crash to get oversold conditions but when a major sell-off happens it is assured we will get that outcome.Anyway, what was your point? You mention the obvious but failed to draw a conclusion for readers or make any prediction.
Or should we just read your mind now and guess what you are implying?
The point is that it is oversold versus real money on the daily chart so a short term bounce might not be far off.
Btw, the Dow is not oversold versus copper either.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24COPPER&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p72916947831
Maybe I don’t know what real money is then but what is performing right now are the 30 year bond and three currencies (Euro, Yen and Swiss). Neither gold nor the US dollar have come on stage as safe haven plays while pretty much the entire market is going into the red. To be honest, I am a little disappointed with gold’s performance. Silver itself looks to be posting a minor double top for the month of August but that should not be too big a surprise as Chinese equities have slipped into a complete meltdown. And if the markets function there like they do here leading the economy lower it tells us even China could now be facing their equivalent of a recession meaning much slower growth going forward. Anyway, gold is being tested and it is found wanting.
Gold has been outperforming those currencies the 30 year bond AND the dollar lately.
Gold is up 6% versus the 30 year since its low earlier this month and 10% versus the dollar index in the same period. So much for those “safe havens.”
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24USB&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p93613856953&a=371814669
Really? Well given the size of the moves elsewhere in the market (and the globe for that matter) it is sure not living up to its billing as a safe haven trade right now and if you have noticed the miners are also again in decline. Only GLD is giving some indication of life but that won’t last as it has just touched the upper boundary diagonal resistance line.
I don’t know what you mean. Simply going nowhere would make it a safe haven if everything else is crashing. But it didn’t go nowhere, far from it. The Dow dropped almost 6% while gold went up 4.2% last week.
Gold priced in Dow:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24INDU&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p88272108621&a=421713933
I am referring strictly to Friday and the overnight trade. Don’t you think it odd gold barely budged given the drop in the dollar? the DOW just cracked 16,000, the dollar is down 8/10’s of a cent and gold is now falling along with silver. Obviously the algo’s have not programmed in buying precious metals under such circumstances. What is moving is bonds and some currencies (of which gold is not included). There is a big hole in the hull of the gold bug philosophy and I figure that what does not rise under such circumstances is thus destined to fall.
Sorry.
There is THIS CHART though. Courtesy of Zero Hedge this morning.
Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM)
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/2015-08-23_19-03-19%20cmdty.jpg
And it should be fine art to the eyes of most metals buyers since the Bloomberg Commodity Index just hit bottom (well…..it hit A bottom but its a very old one and that carries extra significance). In fact this new low from back in 1999 is one that has not been seen in 16 long years. Even before gold began its huge run following 2001.
Meanwhile the CRB (CRY) is now just a mere 5 dollars away from its own 15 year low point and has been steadily dropping all month. We are virtually certain to see it hit bottom before August is out….possibly within days given the resource carnage now underway.
Thomson Reuters/ Core Commodity CRB Commodity Index — CRY:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRY:IND
Which is why sugar and coffeee will both be buys along with crude oil if I am correct.
It’s been 7 years since stocks looked this bad technically.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=M&yr=19&mn=5&dy=0&id=p12565292351&a=401465484&listNum=1
Gerald Celente this weekend on QE and a coming collapse:
Looks like an ugly day shaping up already with the Shanghai as it gets battered, beaten and brutalized another 9% lower while busting through its major support like a fallen boxer dropping hard onto the floor of the ring. It’s a TKO by the looks of it folks and hope has evaporated for a recovery as the ambulance attendants instead search for signs of life and try to pick up a pulse…..they wave off the crowd frantically. Yup, our fighter is still alive but just barely. Even a full transfusion won’t get him back in form for another round though after this major loss of blood. Looks like he is going off on a stretcher instead. The crowd roars disapproval and shouts down the referee. They have been cheated! The boxer hardly put up a fight at all and left his head exposed the whole round. The media is going wild now and swarming the medics as our fighter is carried through the crowd unconscious. Pictures being snapped of every gory bloody angle and you can hardly hear what is coming across the loudspeakers as the announcer calls for calm. The sound is deafening as those nearest the exits shift uncomfortably closer to the doors. Security is already locking the place down though. Camera’s fade. It will be hell on the streets tonight.
Wow….that was fast. We already have our first example of the peoples reaction in China as an angry mob captures (kidnaps) a financial executive and hands him over to police for punishment and jail. Who knows, the guy is probably safer in lockup than walking the streets when its so obvious they want to take his head.
From ZeroHedge:
“The head of a Chinese exchange that trades minor metals was captured by angry investors in a dawn raid and turned over to Shanghai police, as the investors attempted to force the authorities to investigate why their funds have been frozen”.
No worries though. None of this has to be rational nor do the rules of law apply anymore since kidnapping for the purposes of enforcing justice is ok as long as you are amongst those who lost money and need a victim to assuage the guilt of your own foolish mistakes.
We have to wonder where the line is crossed though and blood on the screens becomes blood on the streets. And how long before the mobs are setting their victims swinging from lamp posts?
The people want punishment though. They want the offenders to pay. Looks to me like the show trials and prison sentences are not far off in the future since it is highly doubtful the Leadership in China wants to wear this anger.
So someone is going to pay a price to satisfy the obvious anger that has started to boil over. We only need to wonder who it is that will be sent to the firing squads to satisfy the bloodthirsty revenge that is now becoming obvious.
Angry Chinese Investors Capture Head Of Metals Exchange In Predawn Hotel Raid – ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-23/angry-chinese-investors-capture-head-metals-exchange-predawn-hotel-raid
Just like I said, Chinese are not as complacent as the West. They will take law to their hand if they are pissed off.
You are telling me Lawrence. Its like the Wild West over there.
Sheesh!
Shanghai currently -7.36%
Hang Seng -4.70
Nikkei -4.58%
Yup, it was down almost 9% but then bounced off 3200. I am out. My theory that the bloodletting would end with interventions was a waste of brain power since Asian sentiment has turned far more negative than I suspected. Doc is short though and probably a very happy camper today.
Aussie market closed -3.7%
Yes I am.
Shanghai closed down 8.49%
The US market will respond to China’s drop.
Then the Chinese market will respond to the US……
This could serious!
Eight and a half percent in a session. Ouch! I agree that looks serious. Dow Futures are already way down along with the rest of the major indices including the TSX. Have a look across the Stock Futures this morning. They are bathing in bloody red across the globe……not really a great sign if you are not hedged or did not move to cash.
Bloomberg stock Futures of Major Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures
Blood on the screens everywhere Monday AM.
Al, Cory and all the great regulars as well as a few newbies………in my opinion this weekend’s blog exchange and commentary is one of the best I’ve seen in months and maybe ever.
The diverse scope of personalities and intellect is the best I’ve ever seen on any financial blog.
There exists here a great wealth of wide ranging smarts, excellent general market knowledge, superb technical chart experts and just a big batch of good old fashioned decent people from all walks of life that have a unselfish calling to help facilitate an exchange of ideas and thoughts.
Thanks to everyone for the great discussions, superb chart work and even some new soft commodities recommendations to be covered in the future.
Great job folks!
V
Aussie Dollar, gold is $1604.80, Canuck Dollar gold is $1537.40.
US Dollar is tanking, now 92.65 down 2.25, the currency war is on!
Rule 48 +
All three major US indices have been halted at the moment ahead of the open
…
Ahhh….that might explain why my computer was going haywire and updates stopped.
… and too slow to open charts from Dropbox :).
Here’s a refresher on Rule 80b. Reposting from a few weeks ago, and it was mentioned this was likely going to happen soon:
______________________________________________________
On August 13, 2015 at 11:56 am,
Shad says:
Jason – that is a very interesting topic when a giant correction is looming in the general markets. I’m going to post a section of this article because we are very likely going to see these “Circuit Breakers” used in the next 2 months:
________________________________________________________________________
“In response to the market breaks in October 1987 and October 1989, the New York Stock Exchange instituted circuit breakers to reduce volatility and promote investor confidence. By implementing a pause in trading, investors are given time to assimilate incoming information and the ability to make informed choices during periods of high market volatility. In 2012, in connection with its approval of the Regulation NMS Plan to Address Extraordinary Market Volatility, commonly referred to as the Limit Up – Limit Down Plan, the SEC approved amendments to Rule 80B (Trading Halts Due to Extraordinary Market Volatility) that revise the halt provisions and circuit-breaker levels. Amended Rule 80B is operative during the pilot period of the Limit Up – Limit Down Plan.
Rule 80B
Effective April 8, 2013, amended Rule 80B will be in effect. Amended Rule 80B replaces:
the DJIA with the S&P 500 as the benchmark index for measuring a market decline;
the quarterly calendar recalculation of Rule 80B triggers with daily recalculations; and the 10%, 20%, and 30% market decline percentages with 7%, 13%, and 20% market decline percentages.
Amended Rule 80B also modifies:
the length of the trading halts associated with each market decline level; and
the times when a trading halt may be triggered.
Specifically, the circuit-breaker halt for a Level 1 (7%) or Level 2 (13%) decline occurring after 9:30 a.m. Eastern and up to and including 3:25 p.m. Eastern, or in the case of an early scheduled close, 12:25 p.m. Eastern, would result in a trading halt in all stocks for 15 minutes. If the market declined by 20%, triggering a Level 3 circuit-breaker, at any time, trading would be halted for the remainder of the day.
A Level 1 or Level 2 halt can only occur once per trading day. For example, if a Level 1 Market Decline was to occur and trading was halted, following the reopening of trading, the NYSE would not halt the market again unless a Level 2 Market Decline was to occur. Likewise, following the reopening of trading after a
Level 2 Market Decline, the NYSE would not halt trading again unless a Level 3 Market Decline were to occur, at which point, trading in all stocks would be halted until the primary market opens the next trading day.
https://www.nyse.com/markets/nyse/market-model
On August 13, 2015 at 12:06 pm,
Shad says:
This is precisely why I think over the next 2 months that volatility will rear its head and that UVXY will be a nice hedge to that chaos.
Gold’s safe-haven status is not in doubt
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville082415.html
It will be interesting to see how the PPT handles this one.
Yep….It’s a plunge for sure…..
WELL, I guess they did not like the DOW at a 15,000 number, so , back up over 16,000
will be interesting at day’s end.
Yes, it certainly will be interesting.
On August 24, 2015 at 7:28 am, lawrence:
Hi Lawrence
Now you can see what I was warning about China. And the fallout would spread!!!
Emerging markets are going to be VERY bad….China pumped Billions into the market and prayed it would hold. I knew it would and its a sign of things…Markets are looking ahead!!
Gold has been somewhat of a safe haven ONLY because its already been beaten down. Somewhat of a sector rotation. I don’t see blue sky for gold..I’ve made $450,000.oo the last 5 months by just staying in cash….
Good luck and be careful!!!
A jolly good show……. Thanks Big Al and Cory for a great list of commentators!