Tuesday Morning Commentary from Rick Ackerman
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Why hasn’t gold reacted more positively to the market’s drop of the last few days? Is this a good time to bet on the conventional markets return?
James looks like jpm and co agree with you. I don’t think commercials would be over the top bearish if that were the case. The lack of interest rate increase followed by some form or another of qe or government intervention should put a muzzle on the remaining 120 commentators ; )
A bear market with new record highs. Now I’ve heard everything.
James,
I think he’s right about that. We should see new highs in October to suck the stool pigeons in before the crash starts.
September or October, Charster? And are you referring to pm’s or conventional markets?
Conventional markets
I think the real stock crash starts late September to mid October. A slow draining crash.
I also think PMs bottom in October or November.
It looks like the emerging markets bottom this week. And oil and commodities bottom next week! Exciting times for sure!
Thanks, man.
James, the Dow made a new record high right in the middle of the secular bear market of the 1970s.
http://dailyreckoning.com/dr-content/blogs.dir/5/files/2013/04/DRUS04-01-13-4.png
“Condemnation without investigation is the highest form of ignorance.”
– Albert Einstein
Al/Cory
An interesting story on Bloomberg this morning as reported on Kitco entitled “Precious Metals Trading is probed by EU after U.S Investigation”.
Hard to believe but it would be interesting to get Bill Murphy’s take to see if this is just another drive down a dead end street as in the past or whether there may be something to it. Can’t hotlink it as I don’t use Twitter or Facebook.
I did not see that, but will read it now. Thanks
Rick is right about the swings. I only pulled down 26% profit on SPXS yesterday because of the pop and fall. I refused to put a tight stop in until after 10:05am which cost me about 10 percentage points. But profit it profit I guess.
Yes, it certainly is, Jason!
Rick,
You say that “debt has to be paid off eventually”
I know I was taught that, and in my personal life believe that.
BUT,
I know there is not a single South American Government that believes that.
Indeed, I am not sure I can name ANY Government that believes that, anymore.
IF no Government believes it ever should pay off debt,
should we not adjust our thinking? Just saying!
That is a good and valid point, CFS
CFS I think Rick is contradicting himself a bit here; sometimes maybe these almost live interviews can throw out a few phrases that are not quite there.
Rick is a deflationist so by definition he must believe that many debts will not be paid off!
Good thoughts from Rick Ackerman today. Good questions for him Big Al & Cory.
Thanks Shad
The Franco-Nevada chart looks interesting. The $43 to $47 region has been a gently up-sloping support for some months and this is now resistance for the time being and the price has fallen back. It will be interesting to see if FNV can make it back over its recent $48 high.
CFS:
An interesting point. With total student loan debt in the U.S. running over a trillion and only half of college grads finding meaningful full time employment compounded by current bankruptcy law which does not allow student debt to be discharged except in fairly rare cases, our millenials are pretty much screwed.
N.Y. Times reported this morning in an article entitled “Too many students, too few legal jobs” that while Law school enrollments have dropped from 52,000 to 38,000 since 2010 (do I hear some cheering in the background?) that while 2014 graduates have amassed an average debt of $127,000(private school) v. $88,000(public school), only 60% who have passed a bar have found full time legal jobs.
When colleges discovered that student debt was guaranteed by the Government of course during Johnson’s Great Society, academic standards were dropped and students whose credentials were that they only need to have a warm body started beating down the doors.
GOOD THOUGHTS RICK……………..
Well Dai Uy, that’s just like the UK now.
We in the UK have just kicked the ‘higher’ education scam at least into second gear.
$U.S. values will reflect 10Y interest rates more likely than the value of foreign exchange holdings, which it may have at one time. Ten-year interest rates are notably in decline with market declines.
Rick,
You’re call for 120 $ looks more and more wrong every day