Gary remains focused on the US dollar decline which will move gold up
We kick off this morning by chatting about the conventional markets but quickly get into the moves by the US dollar and how it will impact gold.
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Got a lot more SPM @ .14 -not yet filled at .135 but someone got lucky.
Fundamentals only work in a bull market.
Natural buyers???, these pops are short coverings
Today is option expiry for gold and silver and Sept is an active month
Gary you obviously follow Armstrong, too funny! how many FINAL bottoms can one call, these past many years?
JJ,
As you might remember I have been the only one that was calling for gold back down to 1030 when everyone else was saying no way it would get that low. Now we are there and it’s time to go the other way.
I was also the only one who was saying Nasdaq to 5100 when everyone else was trying to pick bear market tops on every dip. Now that we’ve tagged the all time hiighs its time to go the other way in stocks also.
It’s amazing how short some peoples memories are when it serves their purpose to be forgetful. 🙂
Gary nobody is better at memory loss to serve your purpose than you, and if the cycle suggestion doesn’t pan out you always blame your faults on manipulation, that’s getting really old pal.
good luck!
I have to say I’m impressed with your reversal on the gold issue. It is true Doc could be right and the turn doesn’t start till December, but your calls have been brave and accurate over the last several months. Keep up the good work!
Confused,
My stance on gold is the same that’s been for the last 3-4 weeks. I think it has begun a move out of an intermediate cycle low and I don’t expect a top until gold tags the 100 week moving average. This is just a normal pullback into a daily cycle low. They come like clockwork about every 25-30 days. Gold is now in the timing band for that pullback. The break of the cycle trend line today confirms that the DCL has begun.
Well, we will see, only 3 things gold will do I think, up,down or stay where it is.
Al, your saying you save in gold/silver and (forget the name you mentioned) is saying young people are not interested in gold.
Kinda apples and oranges there.
VERY few people overall are interested in PMs, how many comparisons to the market size have we seen? Young people even less interested as far as I can tell.
Bitcoin service provider and exchange Cubits has partnered with Greek bitcoin exchange BTCGreece to install 1,000 bitcoin ATMs and help small and medium sized businesses move money.
Seems the Greeks are choosing Bitcoin, even with Mr Price, Keiser and how many other “experts” and “gurus” went over there and preached gold/silver.
I own both PMs but when Im honust, silvers only value really could be industrial only and gold only jewelry regardless of what it was used for hundreds or thousands of years ago.
Chances are PMs will do 1 of 3 things, lets watch.
Thx for the shows, been good lately.
It’s a good thing that there’s so little interest; that’s how a low is made. Everyone loved internet stocks in 2000 and that didn’t work out well.
All those uninterested young people can’t panic out of gold because they don’t own any. When gold becomes their new fad, it will be time to start exiting.
That might be true Mathew, but money is what people agree to use.
And Greece could be just the start, if everything we have been hearing about debt is true the dominoes could just be beginning, and the people look to be choosing bitcoin.
So far anyway, might have something to do with texting to one another all day, maybe they understand that and don’t understand PMs.
Most people only get interested in an asset after the price goes up and some excitement is generated. It’s never different, regardless of the asset or asset class. As gains grow, interest and confidence grows (how can so many be wrong, right?).
In short, no one’s a believer at the low, young or old, and everyone’s a believer at the top.
Very true Mathew, but if Greece is an indicator that could mean so much for silver being the common mans money.
At least in Greece, on the other hand, nothing saying PMs are not being used now.
I don’t know anyone in Greece to ask, but surely the “pump sites” would have mentioned it.
I remember that very well – and my utter disbelief at your repeated statements of Nasdaq 5100 target. That was an incredible call.
Everything depends on the stock market right now. It has to finish the move down into the 7 YCL. When it does then the world is going to change, just like it changed at the last 7 YCL in 09. Central banks all over the world will double or triple down on QE and the next phase in this game will begin.
That phase should start with stocks and commodities bottoming. Then stocks should rise into a bubble followed by bubbles in the commodity markets once the stock bubble pops.
JJ,
As you may recall I’ve been saying for the last few days that stocks are due for a bounce I just don’t think it would naturally occur until after the Jackson Hole meeting and not as a 400-500 point gap up before the market opens. A natural bottom would be for the selling to exhaust and the market to form a narrow range day. So yes I think the Fed is intervening in the markets right now along with China, Japan and the ECB. How could they not. 6 years of money printing is evaporating in the blick of an eye. They can’t realistically just be expected to sit on the sidelines and do nothing.
Agree Gary, Japans BOJ is a huge buyer of US stocks, bottoms are made from short covering regardless of interventions. You need the shorts to become true buyers and that’s why the pm’s sector must continue to be traded long and short as the bottom is not in yet
Gary,
What about a bankruptcy phase in the oil sector? XLE is finally catching up to oil itself, but still has a ways to go.
I have not heard much mention about this, only a possible CRB and oil bottom.
Richard,
Everything depends on the stock market right now. It has to finish the move down into the 7 YCL. When it does then the world is going to change, just like it changed at the last 7 YCL in 09. Central banks all over the world will double or triple down on QE and the next phase in this game will begin.
That phase should start with stocks and commodities bottoming. Then stocks should rise into a bubble followed by bubbles in the commodity markets once the stock bubble pop
Agree completely. This market action is a re-pricing of risk, something that does not require a bounce. More important, when bounces do not occur from such oversold levels, it confirms this thinking. When is the 7yr YCL due? We may get there more quickly based on market leverage conditions.
JJ,
I do read Armstrong. But not because I think he’s invented an artificial intellignce that can predict the market (who are we kidding? Does anyone really buy that nonsense?)
I pay attention to him because I think a lot of other people believe his nonsense and he can move markets.
Just a few weeks ago he said there was no sign of a crash. If he really had a working AI you would think it could at least predict the biggest event of the last 7 years 🙂
Gary his computer work has correctly called the removal of US QE, golds bear market, oils bear market the big rise out of 2011 for US equities and correctly called the Euro$ action. Last Fri he called the event in the US equities ahead of time with perfection just as his computer called the pop in gold from $1080 into $1172 resistance, so the computer data works, give credit where credit is due big guy
Monday big low was called by his computer not his opinion
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36297
You need to read his stuff in detail
OJJ:
This is what Martin Armstrong said in Dec of 2011
This is a global MELTDOWN in sovereign debt and public debt at the municipal, state, and federal levels. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES BUY LONG-TERM DEBT FROM ANY OF THESE PUBLIC LEVLES OF GOVERNMENT! You WILL lose everything you invest PERIOD.
There are those still putting out the nonsense that gold will collapse because the economy will turn-around…
Gold should back off and retest the support… We should see gold at $5,000 by the end of 2015.
Bonds have been one of the best investments for the last year or so until the chaos started. He was wrong on gold and on bonds. Don’t look for him to apologize.
Booby Moronarty, how the heck are you!
You should read his daily blog and not get hung up on old news, lol
Just a few things have changed since 2011 and his computer has been spot on since Sept 2011, you still calling for WW3, Dow crash, US$ crash Booby? or should I move on and read your latest like you should with Armstrong, lol
I’ve made a lot of money from Armstrongs computer outlook so I thank him as I’m not looking for any apologizes…you should apologize for all your Doom and Gloom crap!
Time for your nap
sorry my spelling error Bobby Moriarty not Boob Moronarty, regards!
OJJ:
Interesting that we are in the middle of the meltdown and you still don’t get it. If you haven’t seen a DOW crash, you might want to check any chart. And that’s just the beginning. The BIS, Alan Greenspan, guys running $200 billion dollar hedge funds all are waking up to what is going on and you still don’t see it.
Come back in a month and let me know if you get it.
That’s the difference Bob is you’ve been calling a Dow crash for years!!! and anyone who listened missed out on fantastic gains, all the while Armstrongs data showed buy the dips for years producing awesome gains, now he is outlining the correction as it takes place, you pat yourself on the back because it finally has a big % drop, wow, its about time, your no different than all the gold and silver experts who have repeatedly called the bottom, oh look silver is lower again Bob…..you guys aren’t worth the air you waste!
This is the best investing website out there. The information given out is really terrific. And thank you for the friendly format!
I like that comment Jay. Some of the folks here are really brilliant.
I think the oil/energy sector is the most interesting at the moment.
Presumably with the USD about to have a 4 – 6 day bounce then oil will drop down further.
SINCLAIR AT usawatchdog………..his take on the market…………..
major problems by year end……………..
Fundamentals are working in oil.
imo a very ignorant statement to say fundamentals are irrelevant in markets…
Agatha, if one applied fundamentals or common sense to gold and silver do you think the price should be $1122 and $14, no way! much much higher, the sooner you toss fundamentals the better investor you’ll be
Fundamentals matter over periods of decades.
With a low interest rate environment, they matter even less as bubble thinking and herding mentality drive stocks either way above or way below fundamental values.
I do feel sorry for you Gary. Predicting stocks final low or final highs is an impossible task.
Get it right, and you were lucky. Get it wrong, then you are a charlatan.
Its a no win situation.
Dave,
One is only as good as their last call. 🙂
It doesn’t matter how many calls you get right if you miss the last one you’re a heel.
It’s often because traders leverage their trades, so when you miss a call they lose big. I’ve recommend my subscribers put no more than 10% of their portfolios in the metals because they are very volatile.
True.
But here it is were it gets really confusing to me. I would never expect from anyone to call any bottom or top. There are people who get paid millions and get it wrong… 😀 So I don’t understand this discussion. I actually would like to know where Gary was so wrong, because maybe we could learn from it. But probably it would cost too much time to dig up those occasions.
That is also why the show is so great. You get a new assessment every day. You can make up Your own mind what You find convincing or not. I think it is really interesting to compare the arguments of Richard the DOC and Gary.
Keep it up!!!
Nic – Good thoughts. I agree about what a great resource this show is and the fantastic benefit of getting daily assessments of the markets. Also you nailed it when you mentioned comparing the different and at times contrasting views on the editorials, and then investors making up their own minds on the plan of action.
May you have a prosperous week in investing.
Off topic: The people who are paid millions to get it wrong are paid by our taxes if we want it or not.
At least You can choose if You listen to Chris, Rick, Gary or Richard the DOC… 😀 If they get it wrong at least You will have had a good laugh here and there.
Kepp it up!!!
Gary,
You’ve been better than anyone calling the conventional markets.
I think you are spot on regarding oil and the CRB right now.
Anything goes, but with XLE finally accelerating to catch up to oil, I don’t think we are near a bottom yet. And the SLB deal today barely even did anything for the group. This should have been a major positive and the market probably believes they overpaid for the deal.
Gary, this interview you gave today sounds completely crazy. You are talking about the Fed running out of money and not budgeting for interventions at the 5 or 10 billion dollar level..
What the hell?
I just don’t know where you are getting your information. What kind of evidence do you have that the Fed is directly intervening anyway, never mind the crazy assertion that they somehow would run out of cash because they did not save enough from an earlier intervention.
I hate to get into this with you again but this time you are just going overboard and making stuff up.
+++++1 Listener, total BS
Cheers JJ.
Have a look at the following chart courtesy “Short Side of Long” that we can use to reflect on how market corrections actually have bottomed in the past. This chart takes us back to the 1987 crash.
What is notable is just how volatilte the corrective process was in most of them and the length of time it took for a final bottom to form. Gary is asserting that this particular correction is somehow unusual but if anything it is placid by comparison to past events.
The short black line is our current 2015 decline on the S&P.
The bottoming process can take anywhere from 1 to 4 months – S&P — Short Side of Long
https://shortsideoflong.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Stock-Market-Bottoming.png
Try to stay current Listener…
http://usawatchdog.com/
Please Gator…..don’t give me Jim Sinclair as your evidence. If you want to show me actual facts however I am all ears. Where is the story that the Fed is intervening daily and with how many dollars of firepower. I am getting knocked out with the crazy stories and wild speculation with NO PROOF WHATSOEVER other than the wild disjointed ramblings from the gold bug community who just mash together disjointed information and come to improbable conclusions.
I don’t know A.L., Sinclair could be on to something, Bo is sayin $2000 this month again.
Its unreal really, its like they just repeat the same thing over and over.
They lose people due to credibility but was it Barnum that said sumtin about 1 being born every minute? Always will be someone that wants to hear it I guess.
If the FEDs intervene during a swoon, they more than likely will be in and out. They will mimic a market maker function. I personally feel the FEDs would like some froth taken out of the markets in a somewhat orderly fashion.
@bb
IMO, you are looking at the wrong consumers of gold/silver to try and determine what the forward demand will be like. Young people in China and India like the metals very much and what they do will overwhelm whatever US buyers do. If US investors don’t get it, that’s their problem.
Exactly right, they treat a sale on gold and silver the way the people of the West treat a sale at the grocery store -they buy.
Agreed. I was thinking the same thing about buyers (young & old) in the East.
True enough Eric, I was merely mentioning in Greece the people (young and old) are choosing bitcoin over PMs as their government and situation crumble.
Should the same happen in Portugal,Spain etc
Money is ultimately what people choose no? And as everyone knows, goldbugs are few and far between, a very small or niche market even, far from the majority of people.
If Chinas economy really is crashing, there will be much less gold consumed.
I have no idea whats gonna happen with gold, at 5% of investable income, it doesn’t matter much.
I do agree with you, by the way, that oil has bottomed Gary.
And the reason is going to be easy enough to understand by most readers once they look at the following chart which I think is one of the most critically important charts we can review this week.
It is the correlation between crude oil and the dollar. And it is VERY convincing.
Sorry that it is a little hard to read the colors but just run your cursor over the chart and it tells you which is which if its not obvious anyway (it will be to you but not everyone is good at chart reading).
What’s important to note here is that the dollar typically leads oil as one rises or falls and the other follows suit in the opposite direction. The chart shows us though that the lead time is getting smaller over the past 15 years and this I believe is a function of computerized trading that responds immediately to market changes.
Anyway, getting back to the point, I strongly suspect that this recent sharp dollar drop is telling us in no uncertain terms we are about to get a very strong rebound in oil prices and that the change will likely happen very rapidly. Most in fact will not be prepared and fewer still will know the bottom came and went until long after its too late to catch.
The dollar to 1.20 people are so wrong it ain’t even funny anymore. And the folks who keep telling us the Euro will implode to sub 80 are equally wrong. The reason is that oil and the dollar are inversely correlated and so are the dollar and the Euro.
The trigger for crude to fly must be that the dollar first starts falling. That is now underway and so we should seriously consider positioning on oil stocks or similar trades if we do indeed believe that a trend is now being established (not investment advice dear readers….this is personal opinion being expressed here).
Another point if I may. And this one relates to rate hikes. At this time it is seen as almost inconceivable that the Fed will raise the Funds Rate in the fall but I think they (the majority of pundits) are dead wrong.
My rationale is simple. The Fed has an opportunity to raise into a falling dollar and thus avoid the problems generated where rate rises tend to cause the dollar to strengthen. If oil is going up though then BY DEFAULT the dollar will be dropping and so there will not be a major dislocation in the economy caused by rate hikes.
Not only is a rate hike coming….I am certain is a guaranteed.
Secondly, rising oil prices signal inflation is on the rise and as a result a rate hike becomes fully justified by the market which cannot stand too severe a discrepancy between obvious inflation numbers and a low cost of money.
I know I am repeating myself here as I have made this observation before but the variables are now set up to work hand in glove as commodity markets bottom, oil rises, the dollar falls and we get back to a rate normalization process.
We must therefore be wary to avoid being long USD or short Euro in this scenario and thus consider all variety of currency and inflation sensitive trades that will thus be impacted as the impossible becomes a reality.
Here is the chart. I have a great deal more to say on this subject but am pressed for time right now.
Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart – Last Ten Years — The oil / dollar correlation — Macrotrends
http://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-gold-and-oil-chart-last-ten-years
I am looking for WTI to bottom at 38 by Friday and launch by early Monday morning pre-market. Just my instincts talking here. We shall see. But whatever happens it is going to take all the attention off this recent market swoon and I think most will be surprised.
Hope it does, I attempted to front run XLE with options. If we bottom at 38 by Friday, it should be a good intermediate bottom in crude.
But the global crude situation with budgets and debt is pretty bad. A swing lower on the USD should help and it looks quite possible now.
I agree. We are getting a pop on the buck now but that won’t last long. The trend is decidedly downward so oil should move soon. I don’t want to go too far out on a limb but if the dollar gives enough of a signal then we may be at the bottom of the oil declines now. Much of what is happening is pure speculation anyway. There is a huge disconnect between supply / demand fundamentals and the reality of pricing. We note that oil usage is at a historical all time high this year in spite of what the fear promoters keep telling us about the global economy stalling and falling into a depression.
I concur on Oil bottoming in the near future A Listener.
$38 has been the target I was watching for Oil to bottom at since February, and I posted about it repeatedly and consistently throughout the year (about 2 dozen times). I mentioned that Oil was just doing a dead cat bounce off $43 earlier in the year, would make it up to about $64, and then would head down to the $38-$40 zone.
This became a harder view to hold to when Oil did get up to $62-$63, but I reiterated in April, May, June that those highs were not going to stick and that Oil had a date with $38-$40.
Other bloggers repeatedly scoffed at my posts and were just so sure Oil was going back above $70 and even $80 in no time and wouldn’t see even the $50s again.
Yeah, that didn’t happen…..
What did happen is that Oil’s price rise got capped right under $64 and Oil did just hit $38 ($37.95) on Monday. Ta dah! 🙂
On Monday I bought into UWTI, and felt that $38 was strong support, but then I read a number of articles from oil and energy “experts” that were all calling for a low near $32-$33….and I got a little freaked out. I did more digging and analyzing, because even to me that sounded low. When Oil did bounce off that $38 level on Tuesday I sold back out of UWTI, and decided to wait until later this week to see if $38 would get taken out Thursday or Friday.
I widened my scope and Monday and made a longer term chart, and realized that the 2009 trough for Oil was at $33.55, and this should be strong support if it gets down that far.
Here’s that chart for reference:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&st=2001-01-01&en=(today)&id=p51446861804
**If Oil falls below $38, and gets below $35 then I’m going in heavy on UWTI and XLE. If it fell to $33 then I’d up my exposure to the Oil sector even more.
This is going to be interesting to follow the rest of this week and next for sure.
just so you are aware the bottom in oil late 2008 early-09 was created by opec cutting production
I believe that OPEC is starting to feel the heat. Here is some hilarious comments made by the Oil cartel in May and the link is at the bottom:
_____________________________________________________________________________
“Before OPEC’s November meeting, members such as Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, which were feeling financial pressure from the glut, had urged the cartel to cut production. But Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most influential member, persuaded the group to maintain production, abandoning its role as a “swing producer,” which occasionally reduced oil output to support prices.
Javadi, who is also managing director of state-run National Iranian Oil Co., suggested that not all members of the cartel were happy with the decision, saying there have been “different ideas” on how OPEC should have responded…”
“This isn’t the first time Javadi has forecast a rise in the price of oil. On May 7 he said in Tehran that the current price is “not sustainable” and will rise because of slowing US production. “Based on trends and information we have …, our expectation is that by the end of 2015 we can see this figure of $80,” he said.”
__________________________________________
Oil To Return To $80 With Or Without OPEC Cut Says Iranian Official
By Andy Tully
Posted on Tue, 19 May 2015
In contrast here’s an article from this Monday about OPEC and people just realized that maybe they should production. Jeez, do ya think? (haha!)
It was clear to me that we’d need to get below $40 to get a response from those knuckle-heads, and then we’d start seeing the real pain, foreclosures, and layoffs in the oil patch in Q2 and when Q3 numbers get reported……. we’ve arrived!
__________________________________________________________________________
Will they or won’t they? Nerves fray over potential OPEC cut as oil gets routed
Alexandra Gibbs
Monday, 24 Aug 2015
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/opec-may-see-its-hand-forced-by-plunging-oil.html
A Listener,
Rate
The FEDs seem confused with their ambiguous language at their meetings. They continue to push variables and conditions. First it was employment. They then re-did that. The fact is the FED will FOLLOW INTEREST RATES AND NOBODY SEEMS TO BELIEVE WHAT THE FUTURE OF INTEREST RATES ARE, hence the confusion.
Remember, Greenspan when everyone was looking for a scape goat on the market crash. The talking heads and pundits claimed he kept rates too low for too long. Greenspan said, “I didn’t keep rates low, the market did.”
BOTTOM LINE, I LIKE YOUR COMMENT AND I LIKE YOUR RATIONALE. WE JUST NEED TO MONITOR IT CLOSELY BECAUSE SO MANY FACTORS ARE IN PLAY AT THE MOMENT.
Thanks Richard. And I agree. The market is setting the rate. Just look at bonds for evidence of that. At this time the 30 year is falling as yields rise. I happen to believe that we are seeing the top in the long bond forming now and that it is very unlikely we see higher highs than those posted at the start of this year. It bears watching but the weekly chart suggests we have now entered a declining stage. And that would make sense if we are to believe that both inflation and rates will begin to creep up the end of this year and through 2016. Like everything else on the market, the majority must be wrong in their assessment and this is a perfect example of that in motion.
Thanks A Listener for your insight.. on another level who DOES have the ‘evidence’??
What do you want….???
Agatha, my problem with this constant talk about Fed directed market interventions is a total waste of everyone’s time. You cannot trade based on theory and conspiracy and you cannot make a nickel by subjecting yourself to discussions around a topic which NOBODY has hard evidence to back up. Gary is offering pure conjecture that verges on entertainment. But as a basis for trading it is 100% worthless and he knows it.
In my view, what we have here is a battle between cycles vs. TA.
I’m a TA guy, but Gary’s really got his head around this cycle magic.
I’m a believer enough that I think and am waiting for GDX to turn up.
See it on a 1 hr chart, and watch PPO and/or TRIX.
And put in a hard floor. 😉
See BUB on Kitco – his analysis EXACTLY matches Gary’s. Bottom is in. $GOLD may correct to 1100, but will go to 1140, 1170, then 1200 1st, then maybe 1300. Also says to buy physical.
Gary, is BUB a sub?!
… BUB also says that *China* is the biggest *public* seller (which may explain pre-market dumps), but is also buying, silently “accumulating through the back door.”
Also says silver will outperform gold, by 2X.
Bill in Tokyo,
How is Japan reacting to the market swoon in China?
Any panic?
Oops up goes the dollar above the 200dma. It may hold. Thats why gold fell apart a couple days ago….
I am getting more doubtful about the merits of ‘technical analysis’ the more I look into it.
Doc has gold running slowly down later this year, Gary is looking for a nice large gold rally over the same timeframe on its next daily cycle and Gold TA paradise is looking for Phase III annihilation phase in the gold bear market any time soon:
http://goldtadise.com/?p=342329
All technical analysis and we have 3 completely different scenarios. At least two will be wrong!
Silverbug, add to your list Avi Gilburt (Elliott Wave) who sees another drop to lower lows over the next two months. Only 1 out of the 4 are looking up!
GDXJ filled the 8/6 gap today on low volume (so far).
I got filled @ .145 for more SPM. Also picked up some AR and a others.