Fundamentals or cycles or technicals which will win?
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Two pretty significant positive days in the conventionals. Will this trend last?
This is very clear and it has been done almost every month for the last couple of years and for the important months for as long as I remember.
I know a lot of people will argue this is not manipulation, just coincidence.
Agree with Gary.
Now, can the FED afford to hike rates from zero with a 3.7% GDP and 5.3% UE (sic) ?
Checking silver prices at an online dealer just now.
Silver spot CA $19.14
Monster Box Silver Maple Leaf Coin (1 oz)
CA $11,837.33 = 23.7% premium
Monster Box – Silver American Eagle Coin (1 oz)
CA $12,055.70 = 26% premium
Did they add in shipping and insurance? It is around $2 more. It is charged even you pick up on the bank. They charge shipping even it is never shipped.
When I bought my silver last time in Scotia bank, the teller told me they were sold to the bank by a customer in the morning. Then I asked so I would not have to pay shipping, right? He said you still have to pay. It is part of the price. They certainly don’t want to sell the stuff.
Why not just buy SLW, AG, Paas, EXK, AXU, etc. without a 25% mark-up? No shipping either and some pay dividends.
I do have SLW but they have a lot of more risks. I sold pam america last year. Physical in possession is most secure.
And I want to know why they charge more to ship silver than they do gold?
WEIGHT……………
Wondering how much for them to ship copper?
shipping and insurance is extra;
occasionally they offer free shipping for a limited time.
REMEMBER THERE IS NO SHORTAGE…………………….LOL
One day this rationing scheme by premium is understood by everyone. The reason I cannot take all my silver as physical is the extra costs. They are so high and banks/dealers seem not making any effort to drop them.
They kept going up actually.
With silver at roughly $14.50?
Monster box = 500 oz?
Let’s see… 500 x 14.50 =$7250.
So at $11837.33, isn’t that a roughly 60% premium?
What a difference an hour can make! Look at silver, guys.
The spot dipped below 14. It obviously did not trigger stop loss.
Should have held on to JNUG at $6.80 yesterday but I saw it starting to fall and thought it may fall as low as 1109 like Gary was saying.
Gary, the junior miners and miners are up huge today, and just keep rising, even though gold is moving up slowly. Does this look like one of those big swings you look for in the miners to indicate a daily cycle low is in?
As long as nothing chages by the close then yes the miners and while metals are probably signalling a DCL is occurring in gold.
It was a nice move in silver, platinum, and palladium today (the white or shiny metals).
NINE SHINY FACTS ABOUT THE METAL SILVER
Posted on January 24, 2014 by KIDS DISCOVER
http://www.kidsdiscover.com/quick-reads/nine-shiny-facts-metal-silver/
The final volume was up in the mining stocks but not higher than the down day before. I am guessing you are not yet convinced?
I should have averaged down on RUSL when I had the chance yesterday. Gotta just ride it now. Still waiting for a re-entry point on SPXS and JDST.
Gary, good on you! I see at your web-site that you published your year to date % returns, far too many bloggers with subscription services don’t display their returns as they just talk up their calls.
Take a bow Gary that’s very respectful in my book displaying returns
I hope everyone here took the time to read my comments on oil yesterday that were posted on Gary’s thread. I appended a chart of the dollar versus oil there that I thought was quite important as a refresher in case anyone had forgotten about that correlation.
Well today, WTI futures are up almost 9% (and this is just the beginning).
Since there were not many comments on that post I will assume it was ignored by pretty much everyone here. Too bad, that was a good, fast trade. It is my belief this is the bottom in oil. What I will be watching for is a rise followed by a return to 38 in a week or two.
The double bottom (should it appear again) will give everyone a second chance to buy at the bottom.
I covered my short position when $40.46 was passed, its been a great short these past two months, now long and will trade as the chart action continues $41.50 and $42.50 decent resistance
Great to hear jj. I am very positive on energy right now. This is a great time to play it long but I do think it will have to reverse back as is so often the case to confirm a final bottom. Not that it is guaranteed to do so but we all know the drill.
A listener good thoughts on Oil. I’m looking at things in a very similar way.
I did respond to some of your remarks on Oil on Gary’s blog, and was personally expecting Oil to bottom near $38 since February, and had mentioned it about 2 dozen times on the blog in Feb-Aug. I mentioned the summer bounce would top out around $64 and that Oil wouldn’t hold onto those gains and had a date with $38.
In the summer I used DWTI to short Oil for a few short periods in June and July. In retrospect, it would have been wiser to just hold it for that whole time period. I went to the sidelines in later July until this week. For the first time in a while, I went long oil on Monday with UWTI. I got concerned that if Oil did bounce that it still may pullback down past $38, possibly as low as the 2009 low of $33.55, which should be solid support. I posted that chart the blog on Tuesday and Wednesday if anyone’s interested.
**However watching UWTI take off to an over 27% gain, makes me feel like a fool for having sold it back on Tuesday out of trepidation. I should have had more faith in my own analysis and made a bad personal decision….. it happens. My thoughts are that if oil does come back down and test $38, then I’ll be curious to see if it can break that level. If it doesn’t break it or doesn’t even test it then I guess $38 really was the bottom and I’ll start averaging into UWTI and XLE on the dips. This is getting interesting.
You were missed yesterday Shad. I was wondering what happened to you and was very curious how well you had done. I think you were the only one on the same track as me with most of these (including platinum and palladium). The pros however seem to think it won’t stick and we will be in decline soon enough again. Maybe and maybe not……..that remains to be seen.
Good trading Original JJ. So do you think that $38 support was the intermediate bottom, or just a shorter term bottom that you would short again?
If anyone here played leveraged WTI the return is already almost 24% this morning. Not bad for 5 minutes effort.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UWTI+Interactive#{%22range%22:%225d%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
I did see your comments yesterday, and have been watching UWTI myself. As you say, the charts suggest at least a week or two where we might see some softness and back testing, so I didn’t go for it. 25% in one day would be nice, but these explosive moves are hard to catch. Hoping for a better entry.
Speaking of energy, we both mentioned natgas optimistically a few months back. After a nice initial impulse, I’ve been surprised by its meandering.
Seems it’s been a muted cycle without much vertical movement, now drifting toward a cyclical low. I do find it promising that as oil and commodities have crashed, natgas has held quite stable. Suggests relative strength, that might lead to a good rise when the commodity headwind changes.
Natural gas has been over produced since a lot of companies are chasing profitable natural gas liquid by producing nat gas at a loss. It is called wet gas. Not sure about what will happen if oil price and liquids price stay down.
Hey A listener. As mentioned above, I’ve really been beating myself up about this explosive move in UWTI today of over 27% because I was talking about it last week, and then went in Monday, and sold out Tuesday. I’m an idiot and doubted my own 6 month thesis. Ouch!
On the bright side, I made a nice 9.2% return in XVI yesterday (Wed) playing the decrease in volatility on the stock market bounce, and had a nice day trade in Stillwater Mining today – got in SWC at $8.75 and sold out at $9.10 for a quick 4%.
Not a bad two days, but it was no 27% like UWTI today. It wouldn’t be so bad if I hadn’t had spent 7 months planning for $38, and actually been in the ETF UWTI on Mon/Tue. It’s a nice slap in the face reminder from the market that sometimes it is better to go with your original thesis.
You are no idiot Shad. Your instincts were brilliant on this one. It sounds to me that what happened was a little doubt crept in just as we approached the critical lower threshhold and you may have felt if you didn’t get out of it could end up being costly.
I think that comes with the territory especially where buying miners is concerned. The bear market has been going on so long it has really done a number on everyone’s confidence.
Anyway, I wasn’t aware you were out. Yesterday when you didn’t appear on the site I was actually thinking “Holy Crow….Shad scored a big one…maybe he went in on a much more serious levered play” and then I just figured you were out celebrating with your wife!
Actually you were spot on with Vale as well which was one stock I did not buy but in retrospect wish I had given your input more weight. I was doubtful when you mentioned it but it had a very good day yesterday along with my two favorites FCX and TCK.
You and I need to keep comparing notes. We seem to be on the same wavelength.
Thanks A Listener, no I’ve been absent due to a crazy work schedule (12 hour days) and have just been trading and watching remotely on my phone. I really wish I stuck to my guns and held the UWTI, and then I would have been celebrating with my wife. (missed out on thousands, but like we’ve been discussing, the move up in Oil should be a sustained move for some time, so there’s still plenty of opportunity for the ride up). If you look at a longer term chart for UWTI or XLE, there is a ton of upside left for the long haul.
I also have been keenly watching SGG and CAFE. Great calls on the soft commodities.
Yes, Vale and Teck and really all the commodity conglomerates just got a bit peppy.
Well, to be honust A.L., I read your post, but, yup,I ignored ya. lol
Guess Im too focused on my goldshares.
Tryin to stick with what I delude myself about knowing something about.
It’s OK bb….its not just you. Most everyone does! 🙂
I did check tho, had I of purchased an oil bull etf I would be up 10% on it today.
Chalk up another good call on your part.
Thanks bb. I do get them right once in awhile.
Today though was special. Everything was home runs and some were right out of the damn ball park. No gloating though. That’s not my cup of tea. I mostly just enjoy talking theory and ideas (and thanking God I am not a newsletter writer). And anyway, the angels would kick me right in the arse on the next round if I got into the whole pride thing.
Anyway, this dollar trend is pretty important as I keep mentioning. Getting it wrong will mess up more trades than there is time to write about. So far most everyone is still on the wrong side of that boat and some are already regretting it…..like today.
You know, Europe is picking up. So is the US. The money supply is in a period of rapid expansion and that will have inflationary repercussion that we should be careful to keep focused on. So I am not just speaking on this topic as if it is a hair brained idea.
Have a look at a great article from Ambrose tonight and ponder over what is in store. He is talking nothing less than a rapid economic reflation as a direct outcome of all the stimulus.
I fully agree. It is what I have been discussing as well but in my own way. I feel a degree of certainty we will see inflation arise next year and that it will be attendant with rising commodity prices and the falling dollar.
Bonds are about to become an excellent short.
Reflation threat to bonds as money supply catches fire in Europe
Ambrose Evans Pritchard – Telegraph, August 27, 2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11828779/Reflation-threat-to-bonds-as-money-supply-catches-fire-in-Europe.html
So basically I am in disagreement with just about everyone who is still in the gloom camp.
so be it.
I don’t think your exactly alone in your thinking.
For years some people have been insisting the money printing will cause an increase in prices. Maybe your timing it well.
There have also been people warning against government bonds.
So, your not alone,but you could be timing it well.
Actually, timing it well could be an understatement, you’ve hit a few to the day.
Unreal how you do that really.
Anyway, good call.
Thank you bb. I really appreciate that comment.
I missed that post. Was hoping to see oil nearer 37… perhaps 36… Seems a strong move up today… but then everything is up.
We will be devoting a segment to this on the Weekend Show.
Are you referring to my post on the dollar / oil relationship Al?
I believe so.
Another important comment A Listener. Neither Gary nor Chris could discuss this particular subject.
Sorry
I don’t know what you mean Al. They can’t discuss the oil / dollar relationship?
Oh I get it. A personal thing. Gary would rather talk about Fed manipulation. Sheesh!
I will repost it here Bob. It’s not my style to quote myself though so I’ll just put it up as if its the first time. Got to say I am pretty damned happy with that trade. Some days are just sweet that way…..anyway, here it is.
———————————————————-
A Listener said:
I do agree with you, by the way, that oil has bottomed Gary.
And the reason is going to be easy enough to understand by most readers once they look at the following chart which I think is one of the most critically important charts we can review this week.
It is the correlation between crude oil and the dollar. And it is VERY convincing.
Sorry that it is a little hard to read the colors but just run your cursor over the chart and it tells you which is which if its not obvious anyway (it will be to you but not everyone is good at chart reading).
What’s important to note here is that the dollar typically leads oil as one rises or falls and the other follows suit in the opposite direction. The chart shows us though that the lead time is getting smaller over the past 15 years and this I believe is a function of computerized trading that responds immediately to market changes.
Anyway, getting back to the point, I strongly suspect that this recent sharp dollar drop is telling us in no uncertain terms we are about to get a very strong rebound in oil prices and that the change will likely happen very rapidly. Most in fact will not be prepared and fewer still will know the bottom came and went until long after its too late to catch.
The dollar to 1.20 people are so wrong it ain’t even funny anymore. And the folks who keep telling us the Euro will implode to sub 80 are equally wrong. The reason is that oil and the dollar are inversely correlated and so are the dollar and the Euro.
The trigger for crude to fly must be that the dollar first starts falling. That is now underway and so we should seriously consider positioning on oil stocks or similar trades if we do indeed believe that a trend is now being established (not investment advice dear readers….this is personal opinion being expressed here).
Another point if I may. And this one relates to rate hikes. At this time it is seen as almost inconceivable that the Fed will raise the Funds Rate in the fall but I think they (the majority of pundits) are dead wrong.
My rationale is simple. The Fed has an opportunity to raise into a falling dollar and thus avoid the problems generated where rate rises tend to cause the dollar to strengthen. If oil is going up though then BY DEFAULT the dollar will be dropping and so there will not be a major dislocation in the economy caused by rate hikes.
Not only is a rate hike coming….I am certain is a guaranteed.
Secondly, rising oil prices signal inflation is on the rise and as a result a rate hike becomes fully justified by the market which cannot stand too severe a discrepancy between obvious inflation numbers and a low cost of money.
I know I am repeating myself here as I have made this observation before but the variables are now set up to work hand in glove as commodity markets bottom, oil rises, the dollar falls and we get back to a rate normalization process.
We must therefore be wary to avoid being long USD or short Euro in this scenario and thus consider all variety of currency and inflation sensitive trades that will thus be impacted as the impossible becomes a reality.
Here is the chart. I have a great deal more to say on this subject but am pressed for time right now.
Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart – Last Ten Years — The oil / dollar correlation — Macrotrends
http://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-gold-and-oil-chart-last-ten-years
Thanks for reposting that A Listener.
The birds say you are very welcome, Al.
My thoughts are very much in agreement with you A Listener – I am just VERY cheesed off that oil bounced before I could take my positions.
I think that Venuzuella asking for the emergency OPEC meeting for a cut in production was a big factor in the bounce today but I doubt that we will get back to below 40 now, let alone mid 30s, because of today.
I also doubt that the oil resource companies would go down much now even if oil does.
I would not worry too much Bob. If I am correct that the dollar keeps falling then the end of the crude oil bear market has arrived. Today was shock and awe but there should be plenty of upside remaining.
The key point of my post yesterday was that the Fed cannot tighten easily into a rising dollar but the advent of rising oil prices virtually assures the dollar will be falling and all the market will know it. To me this is one of the easiest trades of the year because it is so obvious……and apparently the market agreed with my assessment!
So any thoughts on where it goes now? No chance of it back below 40?
My guess is we rise for a week or two then possibly retest the lows (although that does not necessarily need to happen). I think this current bottom is THE low in WTI though and we will not be going to 30 or 20 or any other crazy number. Most of the action regarding crude oil is pure speculation at this point. There has been a big break from fundamentals. I have repeatedly been saying that the dollar peaked back in March and I am vindicates at this stage. Now that the market is finally recognizing that it seems inevitable that oil will start to rise as the dollar continues its long descent. The inverse relationship between USD and oil is just too strong to avoid coming to any other conclusions. Furthermore the primary commodity indexes have hit bottom and bounced off very long term support. There is much more of course. The economy is actually picking up and it is my belief that inflation will reappear in 2016. So I see positive signs going forward and do not feel the least bit gloomy as so many others do. I think this is a rare opportunity to catch that ride back up…..but that’s just me, I could also be crazy. Apparently Chris and Gary feel that way because Al just told me they don’t want to discuss this at all. Too bad.
Yep Bob UK. I believe you and I and Wiseguy were discussing Oil and UWTI in particular on Monday’s blog. I jumped out at $.82 on Tuesday and feel like a goober now, because I really thought after it bounced on Tuesday that it may pullback. I definitely was open for a bounce from $38, and thought that is what we were getting on Tues, but was not expecting this rocket-launcher move up today.
Secondly, my other main trade was silver which I was warning was recharging for a run higher. Indeed it has begun. Silver futures are up 3% today and are looking strong. I don’t know that I need to also point out sugar has shot up 5% today and coffee 5% in the last two days. My final call was for a short on 30 year bonds which I think have topped. Its a bonanza all round.
Everything has blossomed roses today so I am a pretty happy camper.
The key is follow thru A Listener as we have seen these one day pops reverse many times, the close Fri will be key to a new trend, fingers crossed, lets see if Jackson Hole meetings produce positive/negative action
I will be holding jj. I have rationalized an argument for the rise that I am quite comfortable with so there won’t be any scaring me out of a position at this early stage of the game.
I don’t trade off analysts only the chart direction so I don’t move in and out of anything based on commentary, if Jackson meetings spin is a rate hike sooner than later the positive spin could be US growth just as the revised GDP today is sending the $ higher , if growth spin holds oil and silver will rise
I was watching SGG and CAFE today, as well as RJA and JJA. Several commodities were turning up today. As you mentioned Silver was up nicely, along with Platinum and Palladium. Overall a nice day for commodities.
Maybe that’s the key point right there Shad. All major commodities started to move up in unison off their bottoms (or low-lows) so we should not conclude that something fundamentally different has just occurred as some others are suggesting that the bottoms are not yet in. If what is happening now is part of the process of forming the final lows then the next few months gives us time to position on all those great play we have been talking about for a couple years now. I am going to let the market speak for itself and not impose my views on what I *think* might be taking place. If its moving….then buy it, is my motto.
Great point. The last week or two has been a big wake up call even in the general marketplace that commodities may be in the basing and bottoming phase. There have been a slew of article coming out where many are asking if it is time to migrate a percentage of ones assets over to commodities. That’s a sign the big boys are watching as well. It is likely that in 1-3 years we’ll dream of these prices being so low.
I see $yen off almost a full cent is holding gold down, will need yen to head towards 118/84 for gold to advance that spike high in yen to 116/86 had gold at $1169
Santa Fe Gold Corp files for bankruptcy today.
With no way to raise cash, Santa Fe Gold files for bankruptcy
Reuters-4 hours ago
THERE WILL BE MORE…………….
Cheers, this is great news. I don’t mind all the equities I hold go belly up.
Great to off set ordinary income………………..lol
I have many times more physical and physical ETF.
Lawrence:
Priced in miners in general, gold is getting ready to fall dramatically.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3AGDXJ&p=W&yr=5&mn=7&dy=0&id=p88646914488&a=422230203
Short term maybe but not long term. As long as Western governments and central banks can keep metals close or below production cost, this sector will be depressed regardless how high gold goes. Bankruptcies will continue until they run out of metals. I am sure most miners will not the able to see the light at the end of tunnel. Some strong ones will be able to but it is hard to tell which ones. There are too many accidents waiting to happen when time is tough.
I don’t know how you define long term, but I’m talking about years, not weeks or months. Based on where the real price of gold is right now, the senior miners should be a triple the current level. Throw in the improvements to AISC and they should be higher still.
The trend is still your friend, not mine, but let’s look at this chart in a few months and then a few years.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3AGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=7&dy=0&id=p19495405407&a=422267649 (It is not accurate intraday due to $gold.)
I just check the profitability and earnings. Except a few stocks I bought many years ago and now nearly zero, I only bought dividend paying stocks for the last few years. They cannot pay dividend if they are doing poorly. I hate the AISC and cash cost, in particular. When I read a financial report, every cost is a lot lower than current price and they lose money. I am not sure where they hide the cost. I feel they are slapping my face and laugh at me.
I know what you mean about the way they measure costs. Low costs by such measures are meaningless if a company can’t make a profit.
Apparently oil is up – almost 11% – on news that Venezuela has asked for an emergency OPEC meeting about a request for an oil production cut.
Ruddy Venezuela – we were trending down nicely. Their ‘selfish’ act has made oil and oil stocks soar.
This Gold-Dow gap just might get filled (and sucker a lot of paperbugs back into stocks in the process):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$INDU&p=W&yr=5&mn=7&dy=0&id=p69475721234&a=421713933&listNum=1
“mind the gap” …..as they say 🙂
http://sgtreport.com/2015/08/gold-and-silver-hammered-on-comex-options-expiry/
which is one of the reasons I bought more silver yesterday.