Weekend Show – Sat 29 Aug, 2015

Movements in the Markets

Hour 1: 

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Hour 1:

Hour 2:

 

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Featuring:
Al KorelinCory FleckDan OliverAvi GilburtValentin SchmidGlen Downs
Sean BrodrickGary SavageChris TempleMichael Belkin

Comments:
  1. On August 29, 2015 at 12:41 am,
    CFS says:

    8-28-15-mark-levin-audio-rewind.mp3

    listen to first 6 minutes of this to hear Hillary’s longterm inconsistencies.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:18 am,
      Big Al says:

      I believe that I am aware of them! As most informed people should be!

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:50 am,
      CFS says:

      I consider myself pretty well informed, but I had forgotten Hillary opposed illegal Immigration and wanted a border wall built a decade or so ago.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 11:41 am,
        Big Al says:

        S h e send to say what people want to hear! Who would have thought?

  2. On August 29, 2015 at 1:56 am,
    CFS says:

    Cory, You asked some excellent questions Well done.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 2:16 am,
      CFS says:

      Great show, Guys.
      I may not be a Christian, but I do believe the Judeo-Christian system of ethics enabled the development of the best civilizations in history, so far. The Golden Rule, The Magna Carta, The US constitution great steps along the way.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 6:40 am,
        Bobby says:

        cfs, i urge to reconsider your beliefs, the wages of sin is death, separation from God for eternity means simply burning in the lake of fire rather than paradise for eternity. Time is now for repentance, turn away from your sin and accept Jesus as your lord and savior.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 10:20 am,
          Jay says:

          Give it a rest. We aren’t here for bible school

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:42 am,
            Big Al says:

            Remember Jay, “free speech”

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:53 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK BOBBY…………………. 🙂

          • On August 29, 2015 at 12:48 pm,
            GH says:

            I have to disagree Al.

            Whatever CFS believes in that regard is his own business, and for others to say they have superior beliefs, I find quite disrespectful.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 12:56 pm,
            bb says:

            Totally agree GH, if it runs amok the site will end up with more of the HH variety.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 1:14 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            I think Bobby , is sharing with CFS , not trying to show any superiority . Bobby is just sharing a message he believes to be HELPFUL.
            I know Bobby, and he would not disrespect CFS nor show him any condescending disrespect. AS WELL AS OWL. ……….NO disrespect intended on my behalf…..JMO.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 1:15 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            bb….Bobby has been here as long or longer than you………….

          • On August 29, 2015 at 5:12 pm,
            bb says:

            Not sure I understand your point frank. It makes no difference how long Bobby has posted here and I agree with GH, its disrespectful for a person to imply/assume their belief is somehow superior or denegrate another’s belief.
            Rather arrogant actually.
            To each his own I suppose.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 10:16 am,
            CFS says:

            The funny things that I have read at least ten times as many books on Christianity and probably fifty times as many books on religions in general than Bobby. No major decision is taken lightly by me, and I just think it proper to declare up front where I’m coming from. I consider all criticisms against me, and trying to think about whether I’m right or wrong.
            But I’m also an old guy and a bit set in my ways. I do try to keep on learning.
            I used to read at least a book a day, until ten years ago when my vision slowed me down. Now I listen to a lot of radio, and audio usually played at double speed, because otherwise it is too low an information content density. Comments don’t hurt me; I just try to be polite in response or ignore them, except to learn from them.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 10:19 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            my point in indicating the duration of time spent on this blog by bobby was to infer and suggest that you can not find where he has been a disruptive persons as some others.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 10:21 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            comment was directed to bb……sorry

          • On August 30, 2015 at 11:55 am,
            bb says:

            Frank I didn’t say Bobby was “disruptive”, I did say that talk can “get out of hand”,
            really I just agreed with GH ….”to say they have superior beliefs, I find quite disrespectful”, which I do.
            As for the mind your own business, he didn’t mention Frank so I guess its ok to post agreement, but its kinda a public forum and people should expect comments about their comments.
            2 each his own, have a happy day.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 1:16 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            “if it runs amok the site……” …., your words.

            Disrupt…… Webster.meaning……..to be unable to continue in a normal way.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 2:28 pm,
            bb says:

            Frank, that’s it exactly, “IF” it runs amok….
            I was not calling Bobby disruptive at that point, only if allowed to continue we end up with more HHs.

            That topic might be better suited to Christian sites.

            Al allowed HH to go on and on and he was supported by lots…..
            and the site went to poop.
            Don’t you notice the improvement without him?

            Might be free speech, consider the cost.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 3:19 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            now we are going around in circles………

          • On August 30, 2015 at 3:27 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Go back to the top of this discussion…….and start with what the beginning comments were………….

      • On August 29, 2015 at 6:23 pm,
        Bobby says:

        First of all my comment was made to Cash, Jay, bb and Gh should mind you own business. Considering that he believes is the Judeo-Christian system of ethics I would assume that he believes in the 10 commandants. As long as he follows them, he will be directed to paradise, if not, he will need a savior…God sent His Son Jesus to die for our sins. I am just asking him to reconsider, perhaps reading The book of John in the new testament would be of help.

        • On August 30, 2015 at 10:27 am,
          CFS says:

          Thanks, Bobby. I do believe in the Ten commandments. In fact, this will surprise you.
          I took a marriage oath more than half a life-time ago, to which I have adhered despite being long-since divorced. I am still friendly with my ex, but realize I am difficult to live with and she better happily married to someone else.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 6:34 am,
      Jay says:

      Agreed, Fantastic show guys! I can’t speak for other listeners but much prefer these kind of shows and discussions over pumping single stocks or companies you guys are invested in (I. E. Therelase / natcore etc). Good companies but maybe a couple updates a year or just weekday updates for those kind of things. Apreciated EVERY segment this weekend in addition to the market wraps you have been doing (particularly on the volition days)

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:19 am,
        Big Al says:

        Many thanks Jay!

      • On August 30, 2015 at 11:54 am,
        CFS says:

        Well not the “I am the only God and thou shall make no graven image bit”…

  3. On August 29, 2015 at 2:00 am,
    Bob UK says:

    I’ve watched a few TV news reports this morning saying that oil got pumped up simply because people were so heavily short, that the Saudi/Yemen news broke and the computers took over causing a mad dash to cover the shorts.

    Now what happens next week when people realise that the Saudi move into Yemen was not even making Google News search hits when you searched for ‘Saudi Arabia’?

    It would appear that this ‘invasion’ has backfired on the Saudis – they spent the past year… and a great deal of money in losses… trying to drive down the price of oil in order to destroy their rivals through a lower and lower price… and then, in a matter of 48 hours, they lose literally months of gains in working towards their goal.

    • On August 30, 2015 at 3:40 am,
      Shad says:

      Interesting points and questions Bob UK. I’m thinking along the same lines that the short squeeze got a boost due to the concerns about Saudi/Yemen tensions. It will be interesting to watch Oil in the over-seas & pre-market trading on Monday morning, and see how things open on Monday during normal trading for Oil. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a slight pullback as it may have gotten ahead of itself moving up 18% in 2-3 days.

  4. On August 29, 2015 at 2:04 am,
    CFS says:

    Valentin Schmid, sadly how true.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:20 am,
      Big Al says:

      Agreed!

  5. On August 29, 2015 at 2:13 am,
    Bob UK says:

    If that stock Chris Temple mentioned on Wednesday – Frreport? – was up almost 50% on Thursday what on earth was it up by close of business Friday?

    Not going to look – it would be too painful for us all 🙂

    • On August 29, 2015 at 2:22 am,
      CFS says:

      Bob UK, About 3%; The jump on Thursday was a special situation:
      Freeport (FCX) Skyrockets As Icahn Snaps Up an 8.5% Stake
      Shares of Freeport-McMoRan FCX flew higher after Carl Icahn took a major stake in the mining company that is reeling under the effects of commodity rout. The famed activist investor disclosed an 8.5% stake in the company after the closing bell yesterday, owning 88 million shares.

      Icahn, in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said that it plans to speak with Freeport management about its capital structure, executive compensation practices, capital expenditures and possible curtailment of high-cost production operations. Icahn noted that Freeport’s shares are undervalued and some of the company’s management and capital issues need to be addressed. The billionaire activist investor might also seek a position on the company’s board.

      Freeport stated that it maintains an open dialogue with its stakeholders and welcomes their constructive input for enhancing shareholder value. The parties are, however, yet to engage in talks.

      Freeport’s shares, which skyrocketed roughly 29% to close at $10.19 yesterday, further shot up as much as around 21% in extended trading on the Icahn stake purchase news. Its shares are, however, still down around 54% this year.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 4:34 am,
        Bob UK says:

        Ah, thanks – a TSLA moment.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 4:34 am,
          Bob UK says:

          Or did I mean…. a Herbalife moment?

          • On August 29, 2015 at 10:21 am,
            Big Al says:

            Herbalist Movement! Great comment

      • On August 30, 2015 at 3:42 am,
        Shad says:

        Agreed, I think the Carl Icahn announcement goosed FCX up on Thursday, and then it immediately snapped back to reality on Friday.

        • On August 30, 2015 at 4:42 am,
          A Listener says:

          I am sure he will still do very will over time though. He did buy close to its technical bottom. Three years hence he will look like an absolute genius as the rest of the market is chasing prices up the curve.

          • On August 31, 2015 at 1:17 am,
            Shad says:

            Agreed.

  6. On August 29, 2015 at 2:44 am,
    CFS says:

    Re: Chris Temple’s comment about using ETFs in segment 6; the reason for that is two-fold.
    i. Higher liquidity than just one stock.
    ii. Less chance of unexpected behavior compared to a single stock.

    • On August 30, 2015 at 3:43 am,
      Shad says:

      Yep.

  7. On August 29, 2015 at 2:45 am,
    burt says:

    Oh my Gary your comment the crash of 29 caused the depression??? This comment reveals a deep misunderstanding of markets and economics. A crash is just a reflection of what has already happened. It was the deflationary set up that caused the crash. It did not become a depression until 1931 with the failure of the Austrian banks that turned it into a depression

  8. On August 29, 2015 at 2:48 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    All you naughty people out there who might be tempted to hoard some cash, DON’T! According to an anonymous writer in the Financial times cash is a barbarous relic like gold. Funny that, given that Damien McBride a one-time adviser to former Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently tweeted that people should move some cash into their personal possession, whilst accumulating stocks of food and bottled water.

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/financial-times-calls-for-abolishing-cash-to-give-more-power-to-central-banks/5472522

    • On August 29, 2015 at 6:42 am,
      Bobby says:

      Andy, not all cash is created equal.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:22 am,
      Big Al says:

      Very interesting

  9. On August 29, 2015 at 3:05 am,
    CFS says:

    Andrew, when judging the quality of Mr. McBride advise, one should never forget just how much better off the English nation would be if it had not sold off its gold at the very bottom.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 9:15 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      So true CFS – Brown selling off our gold at its near to zero price unforgiveable.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 4:09 pm,
        LPG says:

        GS owes the UK a big thank you for what it did back in the days re: gold.
        My 2cts.
        LPG

  10. On August 29, 2015 at 5:28 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    Best investment………Invest in yourself, if, you can trust yourself…Uncle Wally 1988

    • On August 29, 2015 at 6:43 am,
      Bobby says:

      That’s the truth

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:23 am,
      Big Al says:

      Amen big time Mr Moscow!

    • On August 30, 2015 at 3:44 am,
      Shad says:

      Right on FFM CCF.

  11. On August 29, 2015 at 5:39 am,
    CFS says:
    • On August 29, 2015 at 5:50 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Good listen to….. thanks……….

    • On August 29, 2015 at 6:44 am,
      Bobby says:

      Marty’s computer seems to be right on.

  12. On August 29, 2015 at 5:56 am,
    CFS says:

    Right or Wrong, Martin Amstrong is a MUST LISTEN to in my book.
    http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2015-0829-1.mp3

    Highly thought provoking.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 11:55 am,
      Matthew says:

      I have to agree with that, whatever my criticisms are. Thanks for the link.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 12:16 pm,
        A Listener says:

        Notice at the 12:30 mark Martin states exactly what I was talking about a few days back where he also notes the obvious….China is selling off Treasuries at this time for one very simple reason. And that is because this is the highs.

        They are selling at the top. Full stop.

        Right on Martin!

        • On August 29, 2015 at 3:31 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I finally got around to listening to the interview and it wasn’t the truths he spoke that struck me but his continued unwillingness to deal with gold honestly.

          He does not want to talk about the effect that the state of the economy, real interest rates, and deficit spending (among other things) has on the gold price.

          He wants us to believe that confidence in government is everything. But if this were true, why did gold quadruple in just 7 years from 2001 to 2008? Better yet, why did it go up 93 fold from FDR’s election to its 2011 high despite that period being one of high public (not private) confidence?

          Gold did not “fall for 19 years” as he said. It was mostly rangebound and averaged about $400/oz -or more than 11 times its pre-bull market price!

          When the safest asset on earth goes up a staggering 25 fold versus the senior currency, doesn’t a protracted period of consolidation make sense? Doesn’t it also make sense that the safest asset would enjoy little attention during the “risk-on” ‘80s and ‘90s in which capital investment was well rewarded and real interest rates were very positive?

          For those who can see the following chart, even the real price of gold essentially went sideways during that secular bear market.
          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24CRB&p=M&st=1981-01-29&en=2000-01-01&id=p42205720584

          Gold’s real price is up dramatically over the last one year (as much as 65% vs $GNX and 43% vs $CRB) but Martin would prefer to keep you focused only on the USD price.

          I don’t think that Martin doesn’t know these things, I think he’s deferring to very powerful paper-pushing “clients.”

          • On August 29, 2015 at 5:17 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It is interesting that gold has outperformed the dollar versus commodities (GNX) since they peaked in the summer of 2008, just before the start of the crisis.
            Priced in dollars, GNX is down 59% since then but priced in gold it is down 67%. More importantly, gold has been much less volatile than the dollar since the crash of 2008.
            Here’s GNX priced in dollars:
            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=W&yr=7&mn=7&dy=0&id=p46486614289&a=422433225

          • On August 29, 2015 at 5:18 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On August 30, 2015 at 11:16 am,
            Matthew says:

            For those rare Marty fans who are reasonable, consider this:

            From June 2001 to March 2008, oil went up 320% vs the dollar but didn’t go up at all when priced in gold. In the same period, GNX (commodities index) went up 230% in dollar but fell almost 20% vs gold. GYX (industrial metals index) went up 210% in dollars but fell 20% in gold. Whether we look at zinc, housing, tuition or diesel fuel, everything got dramatically more expensive when priced in dollars but hardly changed when priced in gold.
            Yes, gold is an inflation hedge and many of Marty’s devout followers are suffering from cognitive dissonance.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

    • On August 29, 2015 at 4:10 pm,
      LPG says:

      Thanks for pointing the interview CFS.
      As Matthew knows, I’m a fan 🙂
      Peace to all.
      LPG

      • On August 29, 2015 at 4:35 pm,
        Matthew says:

        If I were a fan of his I’d have to include some disclaimers and restrictions before I’d admit it publicly.
        The one claim of his that still takes the cake is the one in which he asserts that to be against central banking is to be pro Marxism. Do you agree with him on that Orwellian bit?
        There is much wrong with some of what he says even if Socrates is perfect.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 6:08 pm,
          LPG says:

          Big hugs Matthew 🙂 🙂 🙂

          • On August 29, 2015 at 7:03 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Likewise! 😮

  13. On August 29, 2015 at 6:48 am,
    SD Marc says:

    I REALLY dont understand all this anaylyzation- here is the BOTTOM LINE – EVERYBODY READ THIS: They either print “MONEY” to infinity or they (GOV) defaults. Now if you were CHINDIA and RUSSIA – and this is obvious what would you do….get your s…. together of become a “SLAVE” very, very simple…..stop dancing around the pool and jump in already….:)

    • On August 29, 2015 at 8:17 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      SD ….have a listen to Marty Armstrong…..good heads up……….jtlong

    • On August 29, 2015 at 12:16 pm,
      Irwin says:

      south dakota
      sometimes you’re just full of it.

      but you’re entitled to all of it!

  14. On August 29, 2015 at 6:50 am,
    SD Marc says:

    sorry for typos it is early in the morning..and I am half-awake………..great show again guys!!

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:31 am,
      Jay says:

      Like how you parenthesed money 😉 that is also why over a period longer than a few weeks I think Rick will ultimately be incorrect re deflation. The central banks will simply NEVER let that happen

  15. On August 29, 2015 at 6:53 am,
    SD Marc says:

    Belkin is a really, really good analyst….

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:25 am,
      Big Al says:

      Actually world renowned.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 11:53 am,
      Matthew says:

      +1

    • On August 31, 2015 at 1:23 am,
      Shad says:

      I continually enjoy hearing from Michael Belkin on the weekend shows. He has a great grasp on the reallocation taking place from betting on the conventional markets, to the portfolio rebalancing of many larger hedge funds into energy and resource stocks. His stock picks are pretty dang good too.

  16. On August 29, 2015 at 6:56 am,
    SD Marc says:

    I was just kidding about the analyzation comment…I woke up really pis….d about this crap in the financial markets…there are NO markets; NO price discovery; no nothin!!

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:26 am,
      Big Al says:

      At this time, of course!

  17. On August 29, 2015 at 7:03 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Valentin Schmid, is a really interesting guy, to me he is the “H. L. Menchen” of his day, he understands both American and Chinese culture and how it is currently impacting the manners and morals of our times. DT

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:31 am,
      lawrence says:

      Be careful, valentine is a journalist for an anti China organization called Falun gong. Their publication is Epecho times. You can read the paper and know immediately it is strongly anti-China. Its founders are a group of extreme religionists and banned by government. However, I feel valentine is much more modest. The organization is well funded. I heard it is funded by US state department and taiwan as a tool to overthrow the communist party.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:50 am,
        Big Al says:

        Now that is definitely true. We did bring that up a long time ago.

  18. On August 29, 2015 at 7:20 am,
    Confused says:

    Regarding the quip from Valentine regarding the lack of morals of the Chineses v.s people in NorthAmerica “The will ripp you off poison products if it make them money..”. Just so you know Valentine, these are the exact same things Europeans were saying about Americans in the 19th century. Charles Dickens was disgusted by the open counterfiting of his books he found selling on the streets of NYC…..or poisoning of Europeans via dodgy U.S sausages….please read this article http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/26/a_nation_of_outlaws/?page=full

    • On August 29, 2015 at 8:14 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Man…….is and has a sinful nature……..race makes no difference.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:27 am,
        Big Al says:

        Agree regarding some Frank!

  19. On August 29, 2015 at 7:48 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Confused, you are right, but let’s not fool ourselves here look at how England treated, The Irish, The Scottish, and India during the days of Empire, etcetera, etcetera. The list with almost all countries is endless at some point in time. It is important for us now to understand the forces affecting these two countries, China and America in the present.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 8:01 am,
      Bob UK says:

      You forgot to mention the Welsh… But then you also forgot to mention the long list of countries that the US has scr*wed since 1945… In fact, go back to the 1880s in the Caribbean and the Pacific and start there.

      That list, too, is almost endless.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 8:25 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Bob UK, I said The list with almost all countries is endless, I also am acutely aware of how The Welsh were treated by The English.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 8:30 am,
          Bob UK says:

          And still are 🙁

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:28 am,
        Big Al says:

        He did give us free will. And, most do not pass the test!

  20. On August 29, 2015 at 8:17 am,
    Confused says:

    I am of both Welsh and Irish (North and South) extraction and I am acutely aware of the historical and present casualties of past and current Empire. My point is that it is hard to make a statement like Valentine did without any reference to history. It just doesn’t ring true to me. His statements might be true but they disregard historical facts about American and Western capitalism.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 8:20 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Most of these guys do not know real history……….

      • On August 29, 2015 at 8:58 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Vanity , all is vanity………..

    • On August 29, 2015 at 8:31 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Confused, I also will not buy food sold in Canada, produced by an American corporation in China. I avoid Mexican produce because of the issue of dirty water used to irrigate their farms. DT

  21. On August 29, 2015 at 9:02 am,
    Confused says:

    One more side note regarding morals, ethics and capitalism. Capitalism is a culture-changing force that changes some morals, traditions and ethics in order to expand markets. Capitalisms survival depends on this process. For example; 90+ years ago, it was a major taboo for women to smoke cigarettes. The father of modern mass marketing, Edward Bernays (Sigmond Freuds nephew), was hired by the American Tobacco Company to “solve” this moral dilemma . Bernays, concocted the “Torches of Freedom” happening where pretty female actors were planted in the Macy’s parade smoking and instructed to smoke cigarettes. Bernays also planted several journalists in the vicinity who photographed and “reported” on the incident. The slogan used by the women “torches of Freedom” to symbolize their “emancipation” from the patriarchy. As the deleterious effects of smoking became so apparent making smoking a near moral taboo in Western culture, the tobacco companies pushed similar female emancipation campaigns on the developing world. The same strategy was applied in the late 60’s where Revlon did this with their bringing make-up to teenage girls as well. My point is we should all educate ourselves about how we are all in some manner being influenced by the marketeers who really don’t care about our personal well being or the well being of the planet or society.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:00 am,
      lawrence says:

      The moral problem in china is due to the destruction of religion and people appear to see no punishment to be self serving. This translates to lack of social responsibility

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:25 am,
        Jay says:

        Some would argue a much better , constructive morality could be created by elliviating religion and replacing it with personal responsibility, truth, and objective inquiry (combine that with the subjective side of spirituality and as jeseph Campbell put it “Eden Is” 😉

        • On August 29, 2015 at 10:26 am,
          Jay says:

          (Joseph)

        • On August 29, 2015 at 10:34 am,
          lawrence says:

          It seems not working. People are much better controlled by fear, fear to God. People are like animals.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 10:42 am,
            Jay says:

            I don’t think there’s a country in the world who’s population is more fearful than that of America. Doesn’t seem like that’s working too well brotherman. The most successful individuals I know who are truly getting the most out of their lives are the ones who have rid themselves of fear. Particularly when that is accomplished re base human needs (where one doesn’t have to worry as badly about having a roof over their head and food on the table), people can concentrate their efforts more towards creative inquiry / expression. Also when one realizes their choices are their own responsibility and not a gods them when they make the right decisions, voluntarily fulfill their obligations , learn from their mistakes, the reward is ever so more fulfilling than for religious reasons. Jmho

          • On August 29, 2015 at 10:47 am,
            Big Al says:

            Oh, I do!

          • On August 29, 2015 at 2:27 pm,
            lawrence says:

            I feel there is more fear in China than US in political sense but less in economical sense including enforcement to taxation and regulations. The major difference is the attitude toward the fear by the people. Chinese have less complacency toward those fears. Americans are more willing to play by the rules.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:30 am,
      Big Al says:

      I completely e you agree with you not confused.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:37 am,
      Jay says:

      Confused, have you ever read Stewart Ewan s book
      ‘PR! A Social History of Spin’
      Phenomenal read if not

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:48 am,
        Big Al says:

        Sounds interesting Jay!

        • On August 29, 2015 at 10:55 am,
          Jay says:

          Can’t recommend enough Al. Been a while since I read it but remember an essay from the late 1800 s that was featured in this book.
          The essay “The Crowd: The Study of the popular mind” was one of the founding pieces of the pr machine. Can read free online

          http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/445/pg445-images.html

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:46 am,
            Big Al says:

            Thanks, Jay!

      • On August 30, 2015 at 7:45 am,
        Confused says:

        Yes, I used it to write an essay on photographic history. Ewan is one of the best out there. His “Captains of Consciousness” is exceptional too.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 3:08 pm,
      Matthew says:

      You can’t blame capitalism (free markets, rule of law, cooperation) for what a company decides to do.

      Most of the biggest and most powerful corporations got that way and stay that way due to socialism, not capitalism. THEY benefit from the Marxist monetary system, and the politicians they buy, at the great expense of everyone else including every legitimate business.

      Ever notice that the big boys REALLY started to take over main street after the Nixon administration? That’s when all the big chain stores started popping up and the Fed’s easy money (for a connected few) played a big role. Lopsided regulations and taxes did the rest.

      Bottom line, the government should have protected the rule of law and promoted a level playing field, but it did the opposite and IT is the gatekeeper.

      Don’t confuse capitalism with cronyism. The free market is the answer; that’s why big business fights it and makes sure that the masses hate it by pretending they’re for it.

  22. On August 29, 2015 at 9:45 am,
    lawrence says:

    Glen downs talked about his experience in china. What he said is what I know as well. So it is important to go there to understand China. Since he was there for only short period of time, what he saw is superficial but it is more or less correct. Since I have relatives there, I can see with more depth.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 9:45 am,
      lawrence says:

      Thanks for the interview AL.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 1:09 pm,
        Glen says:

        Thanks for the confirmation, Lawrence. I have no doubt that you, with deeper ties, have some real insights to keep us all better informed as things unfold there.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:42 pm,
          lawrence says:

          Are you Geln Downs?
          I really appreciate your effort. I think you mentioned that you went to North East known as Manchuria. That area is used to be heavy industry center and has not fully progressed as other parts of the countries especially the south eastern part. My friends from there always describe how difficult to adjust from Russian style industry to private enterprise so they have been feeling like recession even rest part was doing great. I got better nevertheless. It has been making progress alone with the country but they are below average. If you go to Beijing and places south of it, the the result of economic reform is far more obvious.

          I am disappointed that your two interviews have not generated a lot of interest. This is always my point that even gloom and doom is very exciting but it is not the reality. Reality is always in between perfection and gloom and doom. If we need to understand China to make successful investment, we should do more travelling. Otherwise it is just opinions.

          Thanks again.

  23. On August 29, 2015 at 9:49 am,
    A Listener says:

    Mish Shedlock chimes in on the paper versus physical debate and concludes there is no systemic manipulation of precious metals nor are there genuine shortages. He does however add the caveat that QE is by its nature a form of manipulation of pricing because it suppresses interest rates….but that’s about the extent of it. Here is a snippet from his article:

    “Any time you see articles promoting the difference between physical gold and paper gold you are most likely reading a pile of crap. I have debunked such theories many times. In fact, one can easily prove such talk is complete nonsense. In spite of claims of shortages and price discrepancies, one can get physical gold near spot rather easily.

    GoldMoney is a means. BitGold is a new means.

    One can use BitGold to accumulate “physical gold” in small amounts at 1% over spot price, up to $50,000 worth. One can use GoldMoney to acquire larger amounts at far less markup.

    So, please don’t tell me there is a difference in price between physical gold and paper gold. Right now, there isn’t any. Rather, there is a shortage of coins and other small denomination forms of precious metals. There is also a huge number of suppliers that depend on hype to make a living”.

    Reader Question: Is Gold Manipulated?
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/08/reader-question-is-gold-manipulated.html

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:08 am,
      lawrence says:

      As a person who accurate physical gold and silver, I can say that you need to pay a lot lot more than spot price to get physical silver in your hands. Regardless you say there is a difference or not, the fact you have to pay >15% to get physicals means there are big differences. You can call this difference premium or fees but it is something you have to pay. The modern commerce has succeeded in hiding extra cost until you see your bill.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:10 am,
        lawrence says:

        I am talking about getting a few hundred ounces instead of a few coins. If they do sale on any other metal like silver, I don’t think there are buyers.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:10 am,
        gabriel says:
      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:17 am,
        lawrence says:

        Accumulates not accurate. Forgive my phone

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:38 am,
        Big Al says:

        Interestingly enough a dealer in Bellingham is charging a $2 premium with a four to six week wait. I just found this out yesterday.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 10:45 am,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          I SAID ….THERE was a shortage three weeks ago,,,,and some said you can get all you want…. Looks like we have a shortage………….jmo

          • On August 29, 2015 at 10:58 am,
            A Listener says:

            There is no shortage Frank.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:03 am,
            jhpace1 says:

            Didn’t this happen in 2011? Claims of a silver shortage viciously refuted by Jim Puplava, other very large dealers/suppliers such as Northwest Territorial Mint, it made the news for several weeks in a row. But others were claiming 6-12 weeks for delivery.

            It might be the suppliers catering to the largest dealers/buyers, letting the mid-size or smallest (1 coin) buyers wait so they can fulfill the largest orders first. That’s not right, that’s not equal nor honest, but it keeps the suppliers in business while supplies are tight. That’s why we got cognitive dissonance on precious metal physical supply back then, and this could be a repeat.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:11 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            There is a shortage of coins……..not bars…………….

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:14 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            A LISTENER……….is your statement based on shoe leather investigation , or arm chair quarter(s) backing……………….. 🙂

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:23 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            DID CFS, GET his order filled at $15.50……..wondering minds would like to know….

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:24 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            I guess if you are just looking to get a tube of silver, while watching the sports tube, might not be a shortage at all………………………. 🙂

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:43 am,
            A Listener says:

            Based on mine supply, futures contracts and pricing Frank. Supply is still rising even as prices fall. Check your data. I posted on this with a helpful chart last week btw. If there were genuine shortages don’t you think that the key industrial buyers of silver would bid up prices or that the major acquirers or gold would be prepared to bid prices up in the futures markets?

            What is your information based on? Anecdotal stories do not count. Reports by dealers in coins do not count either. What you need to drill down to is actual production numbers globally. The rest is just a bunch of fluff.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:53 am,
            CFS says:

            Did I get my order filled at $15.50? Yes.

            After that I bought some kilo bars at $487.40 per bar.

            And if silver drops further, I will buy more. Although I do not expect to sell any, ever.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:57 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            I question all reports at this stage of the game……….

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:58 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            CFS…….do you think there is a shortage?

          • On August 29, 2015 at 11:58 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            CFS……was your order filled with bars or coins……?

          • On August 29, 2015 at 12:01 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Listener……..from what I read ……..the miners are hitting the wall, going BR…

          • On August 29, 2015 at 12:03 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Listener…..most of the reports are old news…….

          • On August 29, 2015 at 12:05 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Listener…….I agree there is a lot of fluff

          • On August 29, 2015 at 12:13 pm,
            CFS says:

            Do I think there is a shortage?
            Currently . No.
            There is not an over-abundance of supply, but an adequate supply.

            Will there be a shortage in the near future? Yes.

            Don’t know how near, “near” is. But logic says that if cost of production exceeds price, then production will decline.
            If production declines, but demand does not drop, then price must rise.
            I forsee no reduction in demand for industrial uses, in the near future.
            I do see further reduction in by-product production if the economy declines. (Although I am neutral as to whether economies are in decline)
            Frankly, I don’t even know how much gold and silver I have. I just don’t keep track. Probably about 8 or 9 cubic feet of silver and about an equal value of gold. I do know silver has a painfully large volume, and is a real pain to move.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 12:50 pm,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            Thanks cfs…………and ditto on the pain moving

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:54 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      I think bitgold and bitcoin……is a marketing joke………

      • On August 29, 2015 at 10:56 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Marty Armstrong thinks the real coins before 1933 are the ticket………

    • On August 29, 2015 at 11:13 am,
      CFS says:

      For Mr. Shedlock to be correct, he needs to explain just why it is that there have occurred large quantities of physical placed for sale in the market at times of lowest volume. There is, as far as I can ascertain, NO LOGICAL REASON for such activity other than to suppress the price.
      On the other hand, I have shown how to use times of low volume and high volume to raise or lower the price. (The Method)
      I have suggested that if a country is in the process of acquiring physical metal, it is possible to save billions of dollars by using price suppression first and during the buying of the physical. (The Motive.)
      For anyone to claim non-manipulation, they need, I believe, to address anomalous behavior, such as selling at times not leading to getting the best price. To merely point at supply and demand and claim there is no shortage implies no manipulation, is not an explanation.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 11:50 am,
        Big Al says:

        I would agree. In my mind this is vastly different from the ongoing manipulation espoused by some.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:53 pm,
          lawrence says:

          I am not able to exchange all my paper silver to physical simply because it is so much more expensive than the spot price. I cannot afford it. You call it manipulation, premium or not, but it makes no difference. Now even 90% junk silver is trading at double digit percentage premium over spot, which used to trade at discount for decades. It is what you you pay which is meaningful. When you pay ten thousand dollars for a few hundred ounces, it is not a small order. It is a large volume.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 12:15 am,
            A Listener says:

            Lawrence, premiums generally rise as the price of silver falls.

            You see this during metals bear markets. It is the primary method by which dealers cover the differences between what they paid and what the market is selling for. Their only other good option to avoid losses on the differential is to refuse to sell gold coins during periods when the price has fallen.

            So it’s not usually a shortage issue although I gather that recently some producers have not been able to supply enough coin blanks to the mints which resulted in orders backing up.

            No big deal. Same as any other business.

            It happens to me every lunchtime at the McDonald’s Drive-through. But it sure as hell tells me nothing at all about the shortage of cattle in America that my burger dealer made me wait 20 minutes for a meal!

          • On August 30, 2015 at 12:18 am,
            A Listener says:

            PS: I have not eaten a Big Mac in years. Man, I really miss that food.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 11:08 am,
            lawrence says:

            A listener, the fee and cost are thee all the time not only when price is low. They are there regardless of price since I buy most from bank.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 11:52 am,
        A Listener says:

        Mike is not saying that manipulation does not exist. He is saying it is not anything like what many postulate. And I agree. The theme around here is that the Fed directs the banks and key third party buyers to act on its behalf to suppress both gold and silver.

        Yet there is not a shred of evidence that is happening. How is that even possible??

      • On August 29, 2015 at 12:41 pm,
        Bob Moriarty says:

        An alternative is also to buy a bunch of short term puts, dump a bunch of contracts in an illiquid market, exercise the puts and buy back the contracts. You can count on triggering a lot of stop loss orders put in just below the lowest price in the last 6 months or so.

        It’s what the big guys do, it’s perfectly legal and it’s profitable. Big money always has an advantage over small money and all the whining in the world won’t change it. Trading in the commodity market or stock market is not an ATM where you put in your card and take money out. It’s a bunch of sharks determined to take your money from you. If you want to pay attention to the fluff and noise put out by the con men, you may as well stack up $100 bills in your front yard and burn them. The result will be exactly the same.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 6:29 pm,
          LPG says:

          +1 Bob.
          LPG

        • On August 31, 2015 at 1:36 am,
          Shad says:

          Good thoughts Bob M.

  24. On August 29, 2015 at 10:12 am,
    FranSix says:

    There is no recovering from a failed breakout over a broadening top:

    http://schrts.co/q8MCKc

    • On August 29, 2015 at 11:38 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      nice chart………

  25. On August 29, 2015 at 10:39 am,
    A Listener says:

    Segment 6:

    Gary, you are saying that the market has NEVER bounced back like it has this time because in every other “crash” the shortest time to a recovery was 4 months. The problem with that statement is it compares apples and oranges.

    What we had was not technically a crash at all. It was merely a correction in the ten percent range and those almost always recover quickly unless we are in recession. It is why I said I was bullish stocks again immediately after the sharp decline ended.

    Somewhere along the way I learned that but for the life of me I could not recall where I first heard it. So I went looking for something to back up my response to you today and here it is. (appended below).

    This article from August 25 discusses exactly this subject which is: How long does it typically take for stock markets to recover after a 10% decline. The write notes that the average recovery time is actually not more than 50 days.

    His research also showed that no bull market in excess of 4 years has ever ended by turning to a Bear market without the Yield Curve first inverting (amazing…so that’s the magic of the Fed!). We note that the yield curve is most definitely NOT inverted at this time. I will post a handy graphic in a following post to prove this point.

    Hopefully this will put your mind at ease about any imminent declines (that are not probably not coming). The author further stated that what we saw in the S&P’s sharp correction was a waterfall event and these as we know almost always result in a V-shaped bottom and bounce back.

    As Al asked yesterday on the final show….”Let’s stick to facts please”!

    History shows that we’re not doomed for a bear market — Facts about 10% declines
    Business Insider, August 25 2015, Tom Lee
    http://www.businessinsider.com/facts-about-10-corrections-in-sp-500-2015-8

    • On August 29, 2015 at 10:52 am,
      A Listener says:

      For those new to the subject I am adding a post on what is an inverted yield curve and why it matters to any of us? I will keep it short and to the point.

      This subject leaves a lot of people scratching their heads. In the fewest words possible it just means that the interest rate on short term debt is lower than the rate on long term debt when plotted on a chart of yields versus maturities. The idea is demonstrated nicely with a handy animation I came across covering the last 15 years compared to the S&P500 as a reference point.

      Click on the animation and let it run.

      You will see how the curve inverts in the year 2000. Then click on the S&P chart to jump forward to the year 2015 and you can see we still have a normal rate curve. The easy conclusion is that no recession is imminent although many here would no doubt debate that point.

      The market does not care though. It moves on the charts not what people *think*.

      Dynamic Yield Curve – Treasuries …. from StockCharts
      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

      • On August 29, 2015 at 11:51 am,
        Big Al says:

        Thanks, Listener

      • On August 29, 2015 at 11:52 am,
        FranSix says:

        The yield curve was inverted between U.S. Treasury Bills and Euro-denominated Treasury Bills as the dollar rose and the Euro declined, and discount rates on U.S. Dollar denominated remained above the zero bound and ten year bunds approached zero yield.

        This is a classic yield curve inversion before the curve reverted to steepening, and the dollar declined, and bund rates rose.

        We are now into the bear market phase.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 12:38 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Thanks for sharing that and other observations, FranSix.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 1:04 pm,
            FranSix says:

            That’s not to say the yield curve won’t invert, it might invert during the decline in the markets. If it doesn’t, though, people will be strenuously fighting the bear all the way down.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 11:02 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Understood; thanks.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 2:20 pm,
        RICHARD (DOC) says:

        A Listener; just to show how I read your interesting posts carefully, you might change your definition of an inverted yield curve——-” it just means that the interest rate on short term debt is lower than the rate on long term debt when plotted on a chart of yields versus maturities.” —–an inverted yield curve is actually the opposite and is an interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments of the same credit quality.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:21 pm,
          RICHARD (DOC) says:

          I might add that this is especially important since it often signals an impending economic recession.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:47 pm,
          A Listener says:

          You read my posts?
          —————————-
          Anyway, you are correct. I have jumbled the explanation. Call it old age. Next time I will put on my glasses and engage the brain a little more tightly.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 2:53 pm,
            RICHARD (DOC) says:

            Read them? You come up with some of the most interesting ways of looking at things economically. I find them often very fascinating and they make me reconsider some of my own positions.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:10 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Thanks Doc.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 5:51 pm,
            A Listener says:

            You would love my pasta recipes!

          • On August 30, 2015 at 2:23 pm,
            lorenzo95 says:

            Listener I go back to some of your previous post links, on a regular bases ie government debt to gdp % That was a great site, I do not post many feedback comments, but this does not mean I do not value your posts

  26. On August 29, 2015 at 10:53 am,
    Chester Field says:

    Here’s a simple question: What will be worth more in 5 years than it is today, in today’s dollars?

  27. On August 29, 2015 at 11:39 am,
    Frank from moscow CCF says:

    LUCKY STRICKS AND CAMELS…………..

    • On August 29, 2015 at 11:41 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      Camels were 25cents a pack, in 1960’s and now they are what ?

      • On August 29, 2015 at 11:53 am,
        Big Al says:

        Great comment. Now, let’s talk about resale value and spoilage!

        • On August 29, 2015 at 12:07 pm,
          Frank from moscow CCF says:

          There is no spoilage with smoke……………

          • On August 29, 2015 at 1:47 pm,
            Bobby says:

            Taxes are a huge part of the price, and taxes are inflating

  28. On August 29, 2015 at 12:07 pm,
    Irwin says:

    I temporarily forgot lesson #1 when learning how to use a computer – Jesus SAVES!

    I didn’t save my question about BitGold – it disappeared, and now I ask it again.

    Has anyone tried loading their BitGold account using a credit card?
    Was there an additional fee over and above the usual 1%?

    • On August 29, 2015 at 12:46 pm,
      Bob Moriarty says:

      Irwin: I was one of the first to sign up for Bitgold and to get one of the cash cards. It’s a cash card that has to be loaded in advance, not a debit or credit card. It works, I love it and if you want to play the price of gold, you can load the card when you think gold is high and buy gold with the card when you think the price is low.

      It’s far easier to transfer money than any other means I have ever used and you can buy gold cheaper and faster than any other means I have used. I have even had some 10 gram cubes delivered to me. They are cute.

      The merchant sill pays a 2% or so fee that goes to Bitgold but you only pay the nominal 1% when you load the card or when you buy gold with it.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 1:51 pm,
        Vortex says:

        Howdy Bob,

        I haven’t used my Gold Money card yet, but I absolutely love the service. They just expanded their service so you can now fund your account and buy gold via ACH transfers, bypassing a credit card advance and saving more money.

        Can you expand a bit more when you talk about loading the card and buying gold, what are you referring to? Are you talking about using the card to buy gold coins from another distributor on the open market?

        Additionally when you speak of transferring money using the card what actually are you referring to? I don’t follow the transfer of money using the card which is effectively a debit card.

        Thanks for answering my questions. I ‘m just really interested how you are using your card because as of today I don’t use my card for simple daily functions and service. There really is no need to for me to as the local crap currency fills my immediate needs on a simplistic basis.

        I’m just building an additional savings war-chest in my Gold money account outside the banking system somewhat and I absolutely love it.

        I’m holding off on using my card until I really need it for big purchases and emergency situations.

        Thanks for any answers you can provide.

        V

        • On August 29, 2015 at 3:48 pm,
          Bob Moriarty says:

          Vortex/Irwin:

          When I signed up, I was told that it would be a debit card and you would use it like any other debit card and the amount you use to pay for something would reduce your grams of gold with each purchase.

          But they changed it to a cash card. You have a card that looks like a debit or credit card but you have to load it the way you would a rail pass or bus pass. You put, say, $100 on the card and the 1% is taken out then. And you can only spend $100. It’s a cash card as opposed to a debit card. It has to do with when the Bitgold transaction takes place. With a cash card it takes place in advance but with a debit card, each use is a separate transaction.

          I actually like it better than a debit card. When gold was cheap I bought the crap out of gold and when I think it is expensive, I’ll load up the card and wait for gold to get 2% cheaper so I can buy in.

          The merchant pays 2% and the user should be paying 1%.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:50 pm,
            Bob Moriarty says:

            Vortex: When I was talking about transferring money, that is through Bitgold and can only be done to another Bitgold holder but it’s a 10 second transfer at no cost to either party.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 4:02 pm,
            Vortex says:

            OK Bob, I get what you are say now. I did not know they changed the card from a debit format to a self loading option. I like that as well.

            The internal gold gram transfer option is great but I didn’t think that they had approved that for us American sheep to utilize. Bob Has that transfer option now been approved?

            Thanks for the reply.

            V

          • On August 29, 2015 at 4:05 pm,
            Bob Moriarty says:

            Vortex:

            I don’t know the difference between what Americans can or can’t do. I think the change to a cash card is part.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 4:16 pm,
            Vortex says:

            OK thanks Bob.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 2:30 pm,
        Irwin says:

        Thanks Bob,
        I listened to the interview that Chris Sheridan did with Roy Sebag at Financial Sense (big picture, part 2, 19 minutes in).

        There Roy says we can make deposits using debit and credit cards – what I called “loading”.

        I wonder about extra fees, because on the fees page it shows that sales using credit card have a 2% fee, and I’m wondering if it’s the same making deposits.

        https://www.bitgold.com/fees

      • On August 29, 2015 at 2:34 pm,
        Irwin says:

        Thanks Bob,
        I listened to the interview that Chris Sheridan did with Roy Sebag at Financial Sense (big picture, part 2, 19 minutes in).

        There Roy says we can make deposits using debit and credit cards – what I called “loading”.

        I wonder about extra fees, because on the fees page it shows that sales using credit card have a 2% fee, and I’m wondering if it’s the same making deposits.

        > tried adding link to the BitGold fees page, but my post disappeared again; will try posting without the link.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:48 pm,
          Irwin says:

          Okay, I think Vortex already answered my question.

          If the credit card company treats funding the BitGold account as a “cash advance”, there will be high interest charges involved.

          The reason I was contemplating using credit card at all was because my credit card company pays me 1% on all purchases, but that doesn’t include cash advances.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:04 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Irwin, basically the only two options that I had for the most part for funding my Gold Money account was a bank wire or using my CC to fund the account.

            They just recently added the ACH funding option which is great. Its a huge savings on funding transfers.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:13 pm,
            Vortex says:

            Irwin additionally, I’m actually not sure if the bank classified my CC purchase as a advance. But either way, it is much more expensive due to interest charges as you said.

            V

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:47 pm,
            Irwin says:

            Thanks Vortex,

            Yes, I think EFT – electronic funds transfer – is the best way to go for me.
            Just the 1% fee, as far a I know.

  29. On August 29, 2015 at 12:21 pm,
    original jj says:

    Somebody is paying attention $yen gold ride together….for years now!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-29/what-yen-might-reveal

    • On August 29, 2015 at 12:22 pm,
      original jj says:

      $yen/gold chart , nice tops in Sept 2011 and the grind lower continues

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=8&mn=9&dy=0&id=p36045397813&listNum=1&a=422415362

      • On August 29, 2015 at 12:25 pm,
        original jj says:
        • On August 29, 2015 at 12:33 pm,
          original jj says:

          ECB this week should be very dovish – Thurs 3rd followed by a possible bullish US NFP release on Fri could have the $ heading into resistance at 97.50 as a positive employment release will put the Sept rate hike back in focus

        • On August 29, 2015 at 1:53 pm,
          A Listener says:

          Here is a clip from the Speech by Stanley Fischer released today (courtesy of ZH).

          In this portion he speaks about the relationship between the strong dollar, low oil prices and their effects on inflation. This is all in reference to his comments that the Fed should not wait until the 2% inflation target be reached before rate normalization gets underway.

          In other words, inflation is indeed expected as oil prices slowly return to a more normal level and the dollar continues its declines. That is the mechanical connection that will partially determine the timing of the first rate hike in many years.

          Now you do need to read between the lines a little but in context of the remarks it is clear that Stanley is referring to oil prices as one of the “forces” that is restraining current inflation when he says: “”there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further.”

          (That is code for oil is going back up by the way)

          I actually wrote about just this subject in detail a few days back. The linkages are too obvious to overlook. In particular I wanted to draw everyone’s attention to the long term inverse correlation between oil and the dollar and how the recent bottoming of the CRB is indicating that inflation is about to make itself known again in the coming year.

          This is why I have a certainty rates will rise sooner rather than later and that it is just a matter of time before we are no longer fretting over deflation as the commodity sector once again begins to rise.

          In fact, it is my belief the Fed has timed their rate hikes to coincide with a combination of the falling dollar, rising oil prices and an end to the general bear market in commodities. As I have noted many times already it is going to be far easier for them to raise interest rates into a structural and technical dollar decline than to hike into a rise.

          As oil slowly goes back up the market will respond in anticipation of inflation also increasing. This signals rate hikes are coming and should be expected. It is pretty logical from that perspective and none of it will be all that alarming to participants.

          So keep that in mind. The dollar is NOT going up anytime soon but will instead continue a long slow decline that will permit a gradual reintroduction of modest (quarter point?) rate increases. We should therefore not expect oil to rise too dramatically either but instead anticipate a long steady return to more normal price levels.

          ——————————-
          Remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chariman Stanley Fischer. August 29th 2015 (copied from todays Zerohedge article entitled “Fischer Speaks At Jackson Hole: “Fed Should Not Wait Until 2% Inflation To Begin Tightening”

          “Right now, progress on the Fed’s inflation objective is being weighed down by a significant drop in oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar since last year. Fischer estimates the rise in the dollar, about 17% in nominal terms since last summer, will restrain real GDP growth through 2016 “and perhaps into 2017 as well.” It “could plausibly be holding down core inflation quite noticeably this year,” he said.

          The lower oil prices could also put downward pressure on core inflation, even though this measure is designed to strip out the effects of the volatile prices.

          “Note that core inflation does not entirely ‘exclude’ food and energy, because changes in energy prices affect firms’ costs and so can pass into prices of non-energy items,” he said.

          Overall, though, Fischer sounded optimistic these factors will prove transitory. “While some effects of the rise in the dollar may be spread over time, some of the effects on inflation are likely already starting to fade,” he said.

          “The same is true for last year’s sharp fall in oil prices, though the further declines we have seen this summer have yet to fully show through to the consumer level,” he said.

          The transitory nature of these factors and “given the apparent stability of inflation expectations,” he said, “there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further.”
          ———————————————–

          Here is the full speech for those who are interested:

          Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Speech
          At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
          http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150829a.htm

          • On August 29, 2015 at 2:22 pm,
            A Listener says:

            So there ya go Al…..my dollar / oil correlation post of three days back that Chris and Gary did not want to discuss was actually a preview of Mr. Fischers Jackson Hole address. Who could have known?

          • On August 30, 2015 at 1:22 am,
            A Listener says:

            One problem right now is that the market seems fixated on this idea that rate rises MUST cause the dollar to rise. So they want to buy dollars and sell euro. The only good way to wean them off that trade is if we saw periodic rises in oil prices that would result in dollars being sold off instead. The dynamic is not all that complicated and its pretty certain most algo’s are already programmed to respond that way. If the heavier weighting is on the short dollar trade versus oil then rate rises will be muted. My feeling is that Stanley is among the first at the Fed to start a communication along these lines and hint at what trader behavior is preferred. Why? Because we MUST eventually get rates normalized and secondly because a strong dollar is not in the interests of anyone right now, particularly the Treasury itself who will be grappling with rising debt obligations under as rates go up. The only balancing mechanism easily available is for the dollar to fall for an extended period of time. And that decline need not be big….it just needs to be consistent.

  30. On August 29, 2015 at 1:42 pm,
    Bob UK says:
  31. On August 29, 2015 at 2:11 pm,
    RICHARD (DOC) says:

    The KEREPORT listeners have realized that I continue to feel technically that the PMs and stocks will be under pressure until at least December. I would encourage them to consider this week’s commercial positions on the commitment of traders report. The silver market showed minimal change however gold showed a whopping 20,000 contract net short position change. There were about 17000 contracts added on the short side and about 3000 contracts decreased on the long side. Many have used the COT reports recently as one fundamental argument for an expected increasing gold price. This week’s report should temper that feeling.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 2:17 pm,
      A Listener says:

      Ha Ha! Richard you are making me laugh!!

      The gold bugs only use the COT reports when it suits their agenda. As soon as the narrative does not work anymore they abandon the claims and move on to something else conveniently forgetting that the sword cuts in both directions.

      Good try though (but you will never make headway with that hard headed bunch)

      • On August 29, 2015 at 2:29 pm,
        Bob UK says:

        I don’t think you are being at all fair there A Listener – Doc is just pointing out the COTs and giving a friendly warning. I am sure that many less experienced readers will welcome the words of caution.

        The COTs can be used as an aid to whether to go long or to go short. I am far from an expert on the matter but, over the past 18 – 24 months, even I have noticed how big changes in the COTs, either long or short, has often preceeded a rally or a dip.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:39 pm,
          RICHARD (DOC) says:

          Bob; you’re correct in that I believe the COT report is signalling a dip in the gold price which has taken a little bit longer then I thought but we should see it the next 2 weeks. Next week will give an important directional signal on gold.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 2:36 pm,
        RICHARD (DOC) says:

        A Listener; just the facts. I know I’ve sounded negative for a loooooooong time but base my feelings just on the technicals. To me technicals take out my biases —- we have a ways to go yet in these PM markets but when the technicals change I’ll become a roaring bull but we’re not there yet. I believe the bear race is about 2/3rds to 3/4s over and we’re “starting ” to round the final curve for the race home. 2016 will be the beginning of the transition in my view and probably the fall of next year could be the first indication of the finishing of the bear—at this time, all based on certain technical charts I’m watching.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:43 pm,
          A Listener says:

          Doc, I agree with you. I hope you knew my post above was just a little comedy relief aimed at the gold bugs, not a criticism of your remarks.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 2:48 pm,
            RICHARD (DOC) says:

            A Listener, I never thought about criticism at all —-I enjoyed the post. By the way you might edit your comments on inverted yield curves a ways up on the thread. I think you meant the opposite of what you typed—-then again, I could be wrong—-consider my comments underneath and let me know if I’m out of line.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 2:58 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Richard, If I had the power to edit comments on this blog it would be a whole new site. But thanks for mentioning it. Maybe what you are suggesting is I should consider reviewing my posts before I hit “send”. I am a type-on-fly sort though and just pound em out as fast as the words come to me. Perfection is not guaranteed…

            Corrections are always welcome though. Cheers.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 1:21 pm,
            LFP says:

            @ A Listener:

            It wasn’t ”…just a little comedy relief…”, A L / BM, it was totally [& arrogantly] derisive, and you damn well know it.

            So….FY2 !!!

            MSBR,
            LFP

          • On August 30, 2015 at 2:30 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Is that your 2 cents?

          • On August 30, 2015 at 2:56 pm,
            A Listener says:

            MSBR?…….My sloppy boring retort?

          • On August 30, 2015 at 8:53 pm,
            LFP says:

            @ A Listener / aka Birdman
            Thank you for the kind words, especially your ”…2 cents…” valuation of my comment.

            Here in Canada, pennies [aka ”cents” in Anglo-African terminology] were retired from circulation well over 12 months ago.,btw [but that’s an ”Off-Topic” side issue].
            Given the foregoing, your response to my comment(s) implies my comments are worth zero [in $s or ¢s] !
            So…profuse thanks (you arrogant twit 😉 ).
            —————————————————————————-
            Re your 2nd post [ the mysterious & undecipherable ”MSBR” acronym].

            I thought you would have [at least] decoded the ”..BR” part of it; it’s a commonly-used Web/Newsnet acronym.
            ”BR”= ” Best Regards ”; it’s often used, by others and myself, in this blog & elsewhere [but maybe you’re playing ”dummie” ?]

            RE:
            ”…MSBR?…….My sloppy boring retort?…”
            Laudatory compliments are definitely merited on your prolific hermeneutical ability, Birdman 🙂
            ” S ” designates ”Sincerest”, as for the ”’…M…” – you puzzle over that one [hint: it’s the 12th last consonant in the English alphabet].
            [It don’t get simpler than that, as Mr. William (Bill) Binney would tell you.]

            Synopsis:
            A L / BM submitted 2 Comments
            LFP submitted 1 Response, covering of A L / BM’s 2 Comments

            MVBR [ ‘nother puzzle 4 U – 😉 ]
            — LFP
            P.S.: [Latin dictum: ”Bellum gerere pulchra est” ] 😉

          • On August 30, 2015 at 10:37 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Your FY2 was in bad taste so you didn’t get much response.

          • On August 31, 2015 at 12:10 am,
            A Listener says:

            And whats up with all the insults and happy faces anyway? My post was a criticism of the Harvey Organs of the world, not anyone here on this site. Maybe you have a comment to add on the markets instead of cursing me for no reason at all.

          • On August 31, 2015 at 4:54 am,
            A Listener says:

            On second thought….why am I even answering you?

            Al or Cory; Please delete the offensive remarks above this post. We don’t need to go down this road again.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 2:39 pm,
        A Listener says:

        Sorry about that Bob. Maybe humour does not travel well in the printed word. I was just getting a kick out of how the gold bugs always use the COTS to their advantage. Fact is, in the past they have not been reliable at all in predicting price moves in the metals despite millions of words written by the likes of Harvey Organ and others. I had at one time pored over their evidence and then tried to follow up on what actually happened based on the predictions and COT reports. Their track record is dismal to say the least….but then the standard refrain was “gold is going higher” no matter what the damned reports stated.

        Anyway, I agree with Doc this time.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:49 pm,
          Bob UK says:

          Ah, OK – understood.

        • On August 30, 2015 at 9:36 pm,
          LFP says:

          Yes, indeed, their ”..track record is dismal…”.

          At the same time, COTs that have a cut-off time @ 12.30 p.m., Tue., and aren’t reportable/published/released until Fri., a full 2½ trading days later.

          Does anybody here find this to be just a little wee bit peculiar [book-cooking-wise], given the ”speed” of the web ?

      • On August 29, 2015 at 7:11 pm,
        gary says:

        Actually the COT positions just respond to price. When price rises the commercials, who are regression to the mean traders, get less bullish. As price drops they get more bullish. One way to measure the commercial positions is with the Blees rating.

        Basically the Blees rating just measures the level of the commercial net long or net short position based on the last 18 months.

        So for instance when the Blees rating reaches 100 it signals that commercial traders are the most bullish they have been in the last 18 months. When it hits 0 then they are the most bearish.

        From the beginning of July until the beginning of Aug the Bl;ees rating on gold hit 99, 100, 100, 100 & 95. At that time the Blees rating reached levels not seen since 2001. This week the Blees rating dropped to 75 as gold has rallied about $100 from the July levels.

        But here’s the thing. a Blees rating of 75 is a long way from bearish. It’s actually moderately bullish. I get worried when the Blees rating drops below 20% or 10%. But it’s going to take much much higher prices before that materializes.

        So while it may seem like the COT turned bearish this week it really hasn’t . the commercials are just responding to higher prices by putting some of their hedges back on, but they still have along way to go before we can say they are bearish again.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 7:46 pm,
          Matthew says:

          +1

          • On August 31, 2015 at 6:30 am,
            Frank from moscow CCF says:

            +2

        • On August 30, 2015 at 12:36 am,
          A Listener says:

          Nice post Gary. Thanks for adding to the conversation. The Blees rating is still a little new for me although I recall you mentioning it in the past.

        • On August 31, 2015 at 1:54 am,
          Shad says:

          Interesting thoughts on the Blees ratings.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 2:34 pm,
      Vortex says:

      Good stuff as usual Doc. You are a man with a clear vision, well balanced and grounded.

      You take the hype and emotion out of the equation. That’s why you will be incredibly successful during the next phase of the resource bull market.

      • On August 29, 2015 at 2:44 pm,
        RICHARD (DOC) says:

        Vortex, thanks. This resource market is driving me nuts in the sense that I wish it would just plunge and get it over with. I looked at the stocks of 2 big capitalization gold stocks again tonight and the technicals are shouting lower prices yet—I’ve said that we should see pressure on the PMs and stocks until December and then maybe we get another bump then. That’s not necessarily the low if these large cap stocks continue to move lower at the pace they are. We may have one more cycle after December to see the ultimate lows. It all depends on how much these sentinel big cap stocks take for their next major leg down. This thing is really getting on my nerves since I want to take a big position in these stocks.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:57 pm,
          Bob UK says:

          Oil is the commodity that interests me at the moment.

          I just can’t believe that the Saudis have spent literally billions – in lost oil income – over the past year driving the price down only to make a blunder and cause the oil price to spike sharply due to them moving ground troops into North Yemen.

          Just when they were getting oil to a price where it was starting to hurt so many other global oil producers it looks as if they have blown it. But I can’t believe that they will give up now on driving oil lower – if they give up now then the last year and the tens of billions they have lost in oil revenue was a complete waste of time.

          I don’t think it is in the arab mindset to lose face in such a way. So my gut feeling is that oil is going to go lower again and test 35… Who knows, on Sunday the Saudis may announce an INCREASE in oil production 🙂

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:04 pm,
            A Listener says:

            Bob, please consider that every action the Saudi’s took was deliberate and none of it an error or accident. Friends help friends you know.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:20 pm,
            Bob UK says:

            I have no doubt that Saudi would have gained financially from it – I don’t how they would have done that specifically…. but I guess, knowing that they were going to invade, they would have taken some financial bets on the movement of the price of oil.

            Perhaps that is what they wanted – a short term boost to their cash burn since the fall of the price of oil? Could they have made billions from the move in the oil price on Thurs and Fri?

            Perhaps they went long beforehand and perhaps they are going short now???

        • On August 29, 2015 at 2:59 pm,
          Vortex says:

          Yes Doc, I agree because everything you just said is true. The resource market will drive you bats**t crazy if you let it. So having an aggressive mindset with you finger on the trigger is probably not a well thought-out game plan.

          We’re just going to have to let this the conflagration of dynamic and unfair markets work itself out. The subdued trend we are currently facing will eventually be overcome and we will reenter the bull phase and prevail as a reversion to the mean will manifest itself in a meaningful directional change in our favor.

          If you take a position too early, even in great companies just expect that further deterioration in share prices could happen and last for a while longer.

          But I appreciate your balanced and thoughtful approach. In the long run it will serve you well because none of these stocks are going to run away from buyers.

          • On August 29, 2015 at 3:07 pm,
            RICHARD (DOC) says:

            That’s right, Vortex, and when we get close to the bottom it’ll be recognized and allow us plenty of time to take positions when the first resistance levels are pierced. We’ll see the darkest time ever in our life time for the resource stocks and if they rise just 5% before we take positions it’ll mean nothing in the greater scheme of things since that rise will be infinitesimally small compared to the rise to your mentioned “reversion to the mean” and then beyond.

        • On August 29, 2015 at 4:44 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          R(DOC), what are your technical’s really telling you, maybe this isn’t a recession but it might be something else, look deep, real deep! DT

          • On August 29, 2015 at 6:51 pm,
            RICHARD (DOC) says:

            DT; what conventional bulls should be concerned about is the monthly charts and primarily the MACD. That along with the RSI, strength indicators and slow stochastics are currently eerily similar to the the route of 2009. That’s why I wait for the charts to turn over to a new month next week to see if that correlation continues. If it does in the future, the fact we’re starting from a higher plane on the MACD should scare the heck out of people. The problem from looking “deep, real deep” is if the charts would change (MACD) and head higher toward the previous highs—-they would peak out at a lower level but your conventional market prices would hit new highs. What worries me about this move is how similar it so far is with the 2009 route and I know it’s rare that you would get 2 massive moves down that look so identical over time. Of course, history does not repeat exactly but it certainly rhymes. When I look deep at the resource sector, I feel there is still technically more downside but I feel it will be all over before next July. If we would get a washout greater then expected the next 4 months, it could be over by the first of the year. I wonder from your statement whether you’re considering this a short term correction and we move higher or whether we’re potentially looking at a depression. WATCH THE MONTHLY CHARTS GOING FORWARD—Monday we turn the page and that will be very interesting how September plays out. I believe the odds are the MACD 12 month MA turns gently toward the 26 month MA and we hang in this range for the month of September. Look at how similar months happened after the first downdraft in the 2009 bear market. And that makes sense because that’s how bears happen —-they slowly suck the life out of you over time.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 12:43 am,
            A Listener says:

            Doc, at the start of your post you mention “conventional bulls” so I am not sure if you are still talking about gold equities charts here or maybe the S&P. Just for clarification can you exactly say what chart you are referring too?

          • On August 30, 2015 at 5:25 am,
            RICHARD (DOC) says:

            A Listener; when I mentioned “conventionals” I was referring to the stock markets.

          • On August 30, 2015 at 12:54 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Thanks Richard for your thoughtful analysis. I think the public has been fooled by this move up in the conventional market over the last few days and some of them will start to buy again.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 6:41 pm,
      LPG says:

      Thx for the info Richard.
      LPG

  32. On August 29, 2015 at 2:38 pm,
    gabriel says:
  33. On August 29, 2015 at 2:43 pm,
    gabriel says:

    Maybe this year it will not be like the pas five years …

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xKyS0JNy9MI/VeIR4tqlwVI/AAAAAAABCtM/niZlPoNDBpM/s640/chartindallgcsa.php.png

    … and Bo will be right this time :).

  34. On August 29, 2015 at 3:01 pm,
    RICHARD (DOC) says:

    Just remember, guys; a new month appears on the charts next week signalling a month closer to the end of the bear markets in the PMs. “Patience is not simply the ability to wait – it’s how we behave while we’re waiting.”

    • On August 30, 2015 at 1:36 am,
      Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

      Good point RICHARD. It’s the same with suffering: Anne Morrow Lindberg the widow of the twenties air ace said in the wake of her kidnapped son’s murder. ‘If suffering alone taught then all the world would be wise because everybody suffers. It’s what we do with our suffering that matters.’ Best, A

  35. On August 29, 2015 at 3:07 pm,
    original jj says:

    ECB and the BOJ will be adding more liquidity as the US raises rates off the spin of an improving economy, the US$ will not be going down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • On August 29, 2015 at 3:15 pm,
      CFS says:
    • On August 30, 2015 at 12:53 am,
      A Listener says:

      Of course I completely disagree with you jj. I can articulate exactly why and have done so in a number of recent posts. What evidence do you have the dollar will rise other than Mr Armstrong insisting it will happen?

      Sorry to say but this is one thing I believe he has wrong. This current period is not going to unfold exactly as the last Great Depression did with much of the worlds capital fleeing to America and into bonds.

      If the conclusion to each credit cycle was the same it would be very easy to trade it but we know that history usually rhymes but does not repeat. Something different is already happening which has been proven by the fact that almost none of the worst case scenarios have yet materialized for the global economy or the US.

      • On August 30, 2015 at 1:54 am,
        A Listener says:

        OK….let me give you a concrete example to make my point that is going to be very hard for you or anyone else to refute. Presumably you already know that there is an inverse relationship between the commodity sector and dollars.

        And I will also assume you know that commodities are in a basing period now and that the CRB index has just recently hit a very long term low. So then what does that tell you about where the dollar is going?

        Unless you are trading along the lines that resources will decline for many more years still and perhaps we go back to lows from the prior century then you must agree that the dollar is going into decline here.

        Martin says the dollar is going to much greater highs. That does not ring true to me.

        Please look at this chart and explain away the most basic of dollar correlations all traders know. This one says in no uncertain terms that the dollar peaked and is now heading into a decline. It even tells us on a cyclical basis that commodities are about to rise. Sorry that the chart is not 100% up to date but that is not necessary for me to make the point since we do know where the CRB sits today and where the dollar is at.

        You kind of surprised me with your comment jj because it is at odds with the facts.

        The US Dollar versus the CRB (commodities) Index.
        http://allstarcharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/11-11-13-USD-vs-CRB.png

  36. On August 29, 2015 at 3:15 pm,
    CFS says:

    Mauldin

  37. On August 29, 2015 at 3:17 pm,
    CFS says:
    • On August 29, 2015 at 7:21 pm,
      Bill says:

      Good luck With the belief of a new resource bull market coming soon.
      This is not just your garden variety correction.
      When we finally hit bottom in the fall and have dead cat bounce, all the resource gurus will declare a new bull but it won’t be. We will be in a trading range for years.
      Remeber I was the guy last Nov telling everyone here that resources would collapse again. Right as rain I was.
      The Green back will have another leg up. Its called deflation folks.
      I have been beating on resource fools for a long time. The US is the best place to be as far a finding good solid companys to invest and thats NOT resourses. Lol

  38. On August 29, 2015 at 3:49 pm,
    CFS says:

    Mr. Armstrong complains about the money-hungry governments of Europe and preparation for theft of money. The Oligarchy of the EU is, of course, much worse than the US Government. Appointed, not elected, and unbelievable to me, EXEMPT themselves from income taxation. Christine Lagarde, for example, last year received about $450,000, completely tax-free., as well as a bunch of perks.

    • On August 30, 2015 at 7:21 pm,
      GH says:

      Agreed, the EU bureaucracy is terrible.

      Lagarde, however, is IMF, which is an international financial institution rather than an EU institution. As I understand it, all these international institutions have that tax perk. Makes them a good place for the global elite to work.

  39. On August 29, 2015 at 4:04 pm,
    CFS says:

    Armstrong is going to Paris next week, for his movie. I am planning on going for the opera. If the opera isn’t as good as expected, I can just lean back and stare at the Marc Chagall painted ceiling!.

    • On August 29, 2015 at 7:24 pm,
      Bill says:

      Oil is having a relief rally then bam down again it will go. Low 30s is likely this fall. Then the dead cat bounce. Range bound for years. All the oil bugs will get tired of staring at it. Lol

  40. On August 29, 2015 at 6:35 pm,
    Chartster says:

    Helluva nice chart, Matthew.
    Move the blue middle line to the top of the candles and that puts the weekly move touching the blue line. The move last week brings oil out of oversold enabling a nice downward reversal this coming week.
    What do you think?

    • On August 30, 2015 at 8:27 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Chartster, I added a parallel dashed line just for you. As for the reversal, I think the move out of the oversold region makes in less likely to reverse to the downside not more likely in this case. Note that the big “up” candle the first week of February did not result in an RSI reading above 30 yet oil reversed and went to a new low. Also note that the recent new low did not occur along with a new low for the RSI or MACD. If oil is going to a new low, I think it will happen after it first goes to at least $50-$55.

  41. On August 30, 2015 at 1:46 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Off-message: has war (behind the scenes) already begun?

    http://sgtreport.com/2015/08/guest-post-what-will-historians-say/#more-404459

    • On August 30, 2015 at 12:06 pm,
      CFS says:

      I don’t believe in coincidences, but coincidences do sometimes happen, coincidentally.

  42. On August 30, 2015 at 1:48 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Hillary’s new haircut to trump Trump!!

    http://sgtreport.com/

  43. On August 30, 2015 at 7:54 am,
    Matthew says:

    I don’t know if gold will eventually make a new low or not, but I think it is going higher first if it does.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=30&id=p02459007723&a=422417144

  44. On August 30, 2015 at 8:40 am,
    CFS says:

    OFF Topic;
    The following MP3 is about the creation of the American Constitution.
    I know I have shocked many members of the Korelin family by my condemnation of our despotic “Emperor president. Perhaps if you listen to this MP3, a radio program about George Washington and the creation of the US Constitution, you may understand my point of view from a historical perspective and why I feel so strongly about those powers grabbed by the person with a pen and a phone.
    Enjoy. You really will learn some US history, rarely taught in school.
    http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/6/c/b/6cba3115ce506e91/AUTHOR-2015-4003-MR-PRESIDENT-HARLOW-UNGER.mp3?c_id=9708105&expiration=1440950906&hwt=b2e31fd149e564817e97df1ddc984e42
    Harlow Unger is an interesting author and historian, who tell’s it like it was.
    Enjoy Education…..it’s fun. (You’ll also learn about Treasury Bonds and early manipulation!)

    • On August 31, 2015 at 8:48 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      ENJOYED………thanks…….

  45. On August 30, 2015 at 8:49 am,
    Agatha says:

    with all due respect– the U.S. economy is NOT in recovery…as defined by ‘recovery’.
    where is our manufacturing base…..??!
    what industry is doing well aside from the banks….. and are they on solid footing w/out fed bailouts taxpayer bailouts…???????
    Mauldin imo view is not to be heeded….Maund is another story (to be heeded).
    WE made the decisions to be dependent on china….
    when businesses start making stuff here and DO NOT depend on taxpayer dollars but on THEIR OWN product and their own labor force-fine then a recovery.

  46. On August 30, 2015 at 9:02 am,
    original jj says:

    A Listener, there has been times when the CRB index and the $ rose together as the chart shows these past 20 years, the $ is the main factor reflecting the value of the CRB so instead of suggesting the CRB has hit a low (again) just because the 180 level is pips away could well be an incorrect approach, look at the $ index chart and you can see the sky is the limit and if the $ does in fact go much higher as the $ carry trade loans around the world are sold off than the CRB is going lower and the $ 120

    Also the S&P500 rose 40% between 1981-86 as the $ gained 60+ cents, again S&P up over 200% between 1995-2001 as the $ rose 30 cents and again the S&P up 200+% as the $ rose 10 cents to 100 from 2009-2015

    The bull market in us equities and the $ are not done, pausing perhaps but the top, nope!

    Certainly you don’t think looking at a simple view of Europe or Japan that their currencies are about to drive the reserve currency down? as the ECB and BOJ look to devalue further their currencies and now China this with the US suggesting a rate hike is not $ bearish

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=W&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p24477248991&a=422473410&listNum=1

    • On August 30, 2015 at 9:09 am,
      original jj says:

      A-L look at what happened to gold from Nov 2014 into Jan 2015 rising $177 while the $ rose from 87-96 at the same time, don’t place so much importance of commodities trading with perfection off the $ value, if you did you would have missed the gains made in the pm’s sector Nov to Jan while the $ climbed

      Oil has climbed in value many times while the $ rose and fallen while the $ declines these past years

      • On August 30, 2015 at 1:54 pm,
        A Listener says:

        Dang! Typed my name wrong in error and got sent to moderation. Oh well, I have had enough for today anyway. I did respond to your post jj but you won’t get to read it until tomorrow probably. Until later, man. Ciao.

    • On August 30, 2015 at 1:52 pm,
      A istenerL says:

      I am only talking about the dollar versus the CRB so I won’t touch the S&P correlation as its another kettle of fish altogether. Take another look at that chart I posted jj. If there were moments when commodities and the dollar traded together they were very brief and did not meaningfully change the major inverse correlation.

      The vast majority of the time (because that is what is actually important to the macro) is that the dollar rose when commodities fell and vice versa. A picture speaks a thousand words but even I will agree that long standing relationships can be broken and as it turns out there is some evidence this might be one of those times to be cautious of that possibility happening however briefly.

      We have to step back from the day-trader thinking for awhile and just look at the big picture for what it is before drawing any final conclusions. If the dollar will not sell off as commodities rise though we are in a whole lot of dog-sh*t (and I don’t say that lightly). What we don’t want is that money becomes scarce whether that be electronic or physical cash.

      Maybe Martins system does see something that is not obvious to me. If he is saying that resources and the dollar are going to rise together for some time then there must be an explanation about why that would happen. The obvious answer is that defaults will be the trigger and from that perspective I might agree.

      I did a little digging and came up with an interesting chart that might help answer the question. What I was looking for was a detail chart of what happened to commodities at the end of the last major credit cycle. Since I already knew that resource prices pretty much crashed on their sorry arse and did a big fat face plant around 1931 I had a good starting point.

      Anyway, the search took a little time. Commodity index charts were not really being made back then as far as I know (but if you have one let me know). What I found instead was a historical chart of raw materials prices that will suffice as a proxy.

      Here it is showing the commodities crash (that actually began prior to 1929) followed by a monster bull market that started around the middle of 1933 and lasted until the mid 40’s.

      Raw Materials Prices Since 1915
      http://chartsrus.com/charts.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/1RawPriceMaterials.gif

      During the early part of the 30’s the dollar did in fact become dearer due to bank failures, sovereign defaults, farm foreclosures and hoarding of cash and had to be knocked back down to earth by a earthquake sized devaluation against gold in 1933. At the same time though commodities were in steep decline.

      In other words, prior to the bull market in commodities getting underway in the early Thirties the dollar was indeed strengthening against falling commodity prices.

      Had it not been doing so and had gold not been impeding the clearance of debts due to its increasing scarcity, public hoarding, confiscation and eventually government purchases then there probably would not have been a reason to go off the gold standard in the first place.

      The devaluations that followed the Executive Orders of 1933 are in effect what led to the commodities boom that flowed from that time. So keep this in mind….what that means in this case is that following 1933 the dollar fell versus resources. Here is the short version:

      Commodities declined heavily during the late 1920’s and into the early Thirties
      The dollar rose during that time which led to the end of the gold standard
      Devaluations followed among the worlds major trading nations.
      A bull market in commodities got underway in 1933
      The dollar was devalued and this led to the massive bull market in gold and resources.

      So the dollar DID fall versus gold and resources after 1933 and this is essentially my case.

  47. On August 30, 2015 at 9:02 am,
    Agatha says:

    So re mr valentine…. if he is so anti chinese…and your show advertises itself as the whole story… and you speak of christian love….acceptance…there seems a contradiction of terms in this case…..free speech does carry responsibility…yes?!

  48. On August 30, 2015 at 9:17 am,
    CFS says:

    Agatha, I don’t know if your comments were addressed at me or not…..I tend to post articles, some of which I agree with and some with which I do not, primarily to provoke thought and discourse. Because it is by bouncing ideas around and discussion I believe we learn best…..The Socratic approach.
    I tend to agree with you that much of the economy is NOT in recovery. It varies around the country. I believe we have allowed our manufacturing economy to be hollowed out by cheap foreign labor. (In that regard you are right) However, I see this as a transition period anyway, because I believe it is inevitable that manufacturing jobs will be lost. If not by cheap foreign labor, then to cheaper robotic labor.
    What distresses me greatly, if the horrible failure of the educational system.
    At lower levels real education is destroyed by unions and the tenure system; at higher levels, by bureaucracy and cost. Thankfully, it should not be too long before the influence of the internet substantially changes the whole system.
    (I believe and hope)
    Maudlin, over the years, with his “muddle through” theories has actually proven correct. The US does always seem to muddle through.
    There is something about American enterprise that does not seem to be reproducible elsewhere. Certainly, here on the West Coast, silicon valley seems to be vibrant still in new ideas, new enterprises, many of which will fail, but some of which will change the world.

    • On August 30, 2015 at 9:27 am,
      original jj says:

      Mauldin was the one who brought my attention to the $yen and how gold trades off yens value, he bought the Nikkei index at 9000 when the BOJ announced the devaluation of the yen, he had a mortgage on his new office and the plan was to pay off the loan with Japanese equity gains as it rose to 21,000 this year, great trade!!!!!!!!!!

    • On August 30, 2015 at 10:12 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      cfs..great comments on the” educational system”…….you are 100% correct…….

      • On August 30, 2015 at 7:36 pm,
        GH says:

        John Taylor Gatto’s ‘Ultimate History Lesson’ is a fantastic lesson on our education system got to be so bad:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQiW_l848t8

        Griffin’s and Monteith’s intervies of Norman Dodd are also key to understanding where the US education system went wrong.

        Also Charlotte Iserbyt.

  49. On August 30, 2015 at 9:32 am,
    Bill says:

    Im reposting because my posts were never moderated.
    I think good luck With the belief of a new resource bull market coming soon.
    This is not just your garden variety correction.
    When we finally hit bottom in the fall and have dead cat bounce, all the resource gurus will declare a new bull but it won’t be. We will be in a trading range for years.
    Remeber I was the guy last Nov telling everyone here that resources would collapse again. Right as rain I was.
    The Green back will have another leg up. Its called deflation folks.
    I have been beating on resource fools for a long time. The US is the best place to be as far a finding good solid companys to invest and thats NOT resourses. Lol

    Oil is having a relief rally then bam down again it will go. Low 30s is likely this fall. Then the dead cat bounce. Range bound for years. All the oil bugs will get tired of staring at it.

  50. On August 30, 2015 at 9:35 am,
    Matthew says:
  51. On August 30, 2015 at 9:52 am,
    Bill says:

    On August 30, 2015 at 9:32 am,
    Bill says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    Im reposting because my posts were never moderated because I used the wrong email.
    I think good luck With the belief of a new resource bull market coming soon.
    This is not just your garden variety correction.
    When we finally hit bottom in the fall and have dead cat bounce, all the resource gurus will declare a new bull but it won’t be. We will be in a trading range for years.
    Remeber I was the guy last Nov telling everyone here that resources would collapse again. Right as rain I was.
    The Green back will have another leg up. Its called deflation folks.
    I have been beating on resource fools for a long time. The US is the best place to be as far a finding good solid companys to invest and thats NOT resourses. Lol
    Oil is having a relief rally then bam down again it will go. Low 30s is likely this fall. Then the dead cat bounce. Range bound for years. All the oil bugs will get tired of staring at it.
    Gold has outperformed other commodities because of the liquidity crises. As oil goes miners profits are suppose to rise. It hasnt happened yet. Stocks have underperormed bullion. As I was a major bear last year im a minor bear now.
    Im waiting for a final bottom on oil then hopefully a trade.
    Good luck and forget about being a perma bull. Its just foolish.

  52. On August 30, 2015 at 10:00 am,
    CFS says:

    Bill, It must wonderful to be able to see into the future and understand all the interconnections of the multifaceted world economy. Mere mortals, such as myself, just get to point out connections and the basic facts and see what will develop.

  53. On August 30, 2015 at 10:07 am,
    Bill says:

    Ill add some past present future dynamics
    This is very important period to pay close attention to commodities price trends in order to understand the overall global macroeconomic picture. This will help investors understand interest rates, inflation and economic growth trends, all of which will assist in securities valuation, asset allocation and investment management.As one example, commodities pricing is most often reflected by…
    Ever since our first warning of the deflation of the commodities bubble in early 2011, we have seen global demand gradually weaken. This has caused global economic growth to soften…
    Investors appear to be catching up with the realities of the global macroeconomic weakness. The bearish trend in commodities recently intensified as investors responded to a host of negative variables such as China’s slowing growth, the collapse in oil pricing…
    Once the market collapsed officials stepped in with unprecedented anti-market controls in order to prevent a complete blowout of its stock market bubble…
    The Chinese government has accelerated infrastructure projects hoping this will prevent economic growth from sliding further. And officials devalued the yuan in attempt to spark global demand for more “Made in China” garbage.

    This is not going to end well!!!

  54. On August 30, 2015 at 10:31 am,
    CFS says:

    This is not going to end well!!!

    I fear you’re right, and hope you’re not.

    • On August 30, 2015 at 12:47 pm,
      Bill says:

      I’m 99.9% confident. And opportunity yes… I’m 95% cash still and counting on it…
      I think we still need another purge but no guarantees. The first was easy to see coming. We need another trigger? Too much easy money policy is screwing everything!

  55. On August 30, 2015 at 10:37 am,
    CFS says:

    危机 = 机会
    Crisis provides opportunity.

  56. On August 30, 2015 at 12:08 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    I notice that Clive Maund has posted an article on his website titled ‘Red alert for 2nd crash downwave’ and a few other articles this week about a second bite at the cherry and buying put options for the second leg of a crash.

    I don’t subscribe to this site so have no idea what the articles contain but the headlines sure give the impression that he thinks a crash is due anytime soon?

    • On August 30, 2015 at 12:31 pm,
      CFS says:
    • On August 30, 2015 at 12:42 pm,
      CFS says:

      There you go, Bob UK, Gold-Eagle.com usually publishes anything significant from Clive Maund.

      • On August 30, 2015 at 1:41 pm,
        Bob UK says:

        Thanks… the latest articles are not on there but I will keep an eye out.

  57. On August 30, 2015 at 12:13 pm,
    original jj says:

    gold 2015 still lower highs and lower lows = bear market action

    simple resistance zones gold must over take before any bullish calls hold any value and on the flip side before the bears claim sub 1000 is a done deal a close below $1080 will need to take place….bottom line still lower highs/lows

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p54694385852&a=422493516&listNum=1

  58. On August 30, 2015 at 1:53 pm,
    bj says:

    Historically, a sustained bull run is a long slog moving from the lower left to upper right of the charts. What we saw last week was a massive raid by the ‘market makers’ short selling with impunity, tripping stop losses and then sweeping the profits off the table with an equally sharp ‘relief” rally.

    What’s important to remember is that the fundamentals haven’t changed. With free virtual money from the Fed–around $5 trillion thus far–this market would be toast. Among other things, it’s a mess when corporations go in debtt to buy back their stock to maintain/grow their earnings per (by reducing their outstanding shares) so the officers of the boards get their performance bonuses.

    …And yes, the small individual day traders (not to be confused to investors) might make some money playing the momentum, it’s only the crumbs that fell off the table.. When you add up all their profits and subtract away from $5 trillion, the balance goes to the robots trading in nanoseconds for the big ‘banks’.

    • On August 30, 2015 at 1:56 pm,
      bj says:

      Second paragraph, second sentence should read: “Without free virtual money….”

  59. On August 30, 2015 at 7:50 pm,
    CFS says:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34102557

    I was listening to the radio earlier and civilian death total was 36 at a bottling plant.
    (Reminded me of the milk bottling plant bombing in Libya)
    Reports out of Syria were claiming the Americans were using cluster bombs.
    I hope not. I thought Diana (UK princess) had a successful campaign for UN to ban their use! So many innocent civilians end up getting maimed from cluster bombs….often kids.

  60. On August 30, 2015 at 7:56 pm,
    CFS says:

    I see there was a small attack on gold as the market opened this evening, but soon rebuffed.
    I expect the conventional market to drop in the morning, but the PPT will step in at 10:30 a.m. to bump it up enough to slow the fall, if necessary.
    I re-examine all the market data for last week and could only find two possible PPT interventions last week. None on Friday.

    • On August 31, 2015 at 2:03 am,
      Bob UK says:

      Silver soaring – up over 3%

  61. On August 30, 2015 at 8:01 pm,
    CFS says:

    By the way, the total death toll of Christians in Syria at the hands of IS last week exceeded 100.
    Should end soon though……all will be exterminated.

  62. On August 30, 2015 at 8:50 pm,
    CFS says:

    Obama to push global Warming EPA rules in Alaska:
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/08/summer-snow-to-greet-obama-on-alaska-climate-trip/
    Darned weather not predicted to cooperate.

  63. On August 30, 2015 at 8:56 pm,
    CFS says:

    In case you forget what was predicted in weather for 2015:

    http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/29/flashback-abc-news-envisioned-apocalyptic-world-triggered-by-climate-change-video/#ixzz3kGG02y3L

    The global warmers were wrong then; they’re wrong now.

    Who is really denying the laws of physics ans weather?
    How many trillions are going to be spent by US to put coal mining into history?

  64. On August 30, 2015 at 9:13 pm,
    CFS says:

    I thought changing the name of the US’s highest mountain, named after an assassinated Republican President, would take an act of Congress. It was originally named by the Act in 1917 which created National Parks.

    • On August 31, 2015 at 3:33 am,
      Frank from moscow CCF says:

      I thought at first it was BS……barry style……..

      • On August 31, 2015 at 3:34 am,
        Frank from moscow CCF says:

        Next BS BARRY will want to carve his face in RUSHMORE…….

  65. On August 30, 2015 at 9:39 pm,
    CFS says:
  66. On August 30, 2015 at 10:55 pm,
    CFS says:

    The arrest of many financial people in China and disconnection of internet use by 200 or so who spread misinformation about the Chinese stock market collapse may indicate a change of policy by officials. If I had to guess, China may be choosing not to use money to boost their market.

  67. On August 31, 2015 at 5:07 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/27/stocks-crashed-the-last-two-times-this-happened/
    The biggest cause of the stock market crash of 1929 was forced selling of margin calls, the chart readers here are good but if you don’t think about the last two market crashes as this article points out you will get blindsided by all the hundreds of billions sitting in margin on the precipice of liquidating and bringing the next big crash! DT

  68. On August 31, 2015 at 7:05 am,
    CFS says:

    The breadth of the drop this morning,

    Issues NYSE Nasdaq
    Advancing 723 936
    Declining 2191 1527
    Unchanged 102 109
    Total: 3016 2572
    Issues at:
    52-Week High 2 9
    52-Week Low 10 11
    Volume:
    Advancing 65.57M 60.05M
    Declining 276.63M 122.12M
    Unchanged 1.31M 2.19M
    Total: 343.51M 184.36M
    8/31/2015 9:58:43 a.m.
    to me indicates minor PPT action in about 20 minutes, as a one-time intervention today to support market.

  69. On August 31, 2015 at 7:21 am,
    CFS says:

    Biotech still holding up pretty well, with a few really positive results:
    e.g.
    BioLife Solutions up 72% premarket on key customer success in late stage trial perianal
    Thinly traded nano cap BioLife Solutions (NASDAQ:BLFS) jumps72%premarket on average volume in response to its announcement that a Phase 3 clinical trial run by one of its customers, TiGenix NV, met its primary endpoint. The late stage study evaluated TiGenix’s lead stem cell therapy candidate, Cx601, for the treatment of complex perianal (around the anus)fistula (abnormal connection between an organ and other structure) in patients with Crohn’s disease. A single injection of Cx601 was statistically superior to placebo in achieving combined remission at week 24. TiGenix intends to file an MAA in Europe in Q1 2016 and initiate a pivotal study in the U.S. as soon as feasible.

  70. On August 31, 2015 at 7:55 am,
    CFS says:

    I was wrong, The market bounced back enough so no PPT action yet.

  71. On August 31, 2015 at 8:02 am,
    CFS says:

    another biotech up today:
    Nano cap Vital Therapies (NASDAQ:VTL) is up20%premarket on healthy volume in response to its announcementof additional data from a Phase 3 study, VTI-208, of the cell-based therapy ELAD (Extracorporeal Liver Assist System) in patients with end-stage liver disease. The results were presented on Saturday at the 16th International Symposium on Albumin Dialysis in Liver Disease in Rostock-Warnemunde, Germany.