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Gary is watching the Japanese Yen to foreshadow movements in commodities

August 31, 2015

Gary kicks off today with a focus on the Japanese Yen. He brings up the relationship between the Yen and commodities relating what happened. We then move to oil which has moved up quite nicely since when we recorded.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Here is a link to the charts Gary mentioned in the interview.

Discussion
68 Comments
    Aug 31, 2015 31:46 AM

    Gary $yen has been the leading trend indicator for gold since summer of 2007!!!!!!!!!!

    Aug 31, 2015 31:53 AM

    If gold went to 100gs over night less than .05% of the planet would notice, oil is effecting us all from the street level to entire countries!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-31/forget-china-oil-price-main-driver-market-turmoil

      Aug 31, 2015 31:02 AM

      So less than .05% of the planet has a brain? Sounds about right.
      Theft by currency devaluation (inflation) affects us all from the street level to entire countries!

        Aug 31, 2015 31:08 AM

        your learning Matty!

          Aug 31, 2015 31:12 AM

          Apparently you’re not, JJ! It makes no difference if most people would notice gold or not.

      Aug 31, 2015 31:10 AM

      Haha, gold couldn’t go to $100,000 without .05% noticing. There wouldn’t be enough demand to raise the price that much. Y’all are funny.

        Aug 31, 2015 31:19 AM

        Wow! you guys really need to notice there are other areas in the markets to make money and preserve your wealth, of course the example of 100g gold was an extreme suggestion, oil goes to $20 and the world will see countries in default, oil goes to $150 and we will see economies collapse as food would skyrocket!

        Try just for a second Matt to understand something you haven’t posted, gold only means something to those that follow it and the majority of the planet isn’t aware of golds pricing, but they sure are aware of oil as it effects almost everything in our day to day living costs….lighten up guys!

          Aug 31, 2015 31:28 AM

          Stick with trading, JJ. You clearly do not understand money or economics.

            Aug 31, 2015 31:34 AM

            That’s your opinion, which is worthless, I’ll stick to what makes money!

            Aug 31, 2015 31:37 AM

            That’s what I advised, stick with trading!

      Aug 31, 2015 31:58 AM

      I find some in the fact that Ray Dalio and Stanley Druckenmiller are numbered among the .05%

        Aug 31, 2015 31:00 PM

        ‘solace’

          Aug 31, 2015 31:08 PM

          I find none, just look at the amount of money Eric Sprott another Billionaire has lost with his buy only approach to the pm’s sector these past 4 years.

          We are going to need a lot more buyers to take gold out of its funk making lower highs before rolling over yet again and lower lows

          There was a time oil would move gold, one look today tells you gold is dead money while those in oil are killing it !! trading the long and short

    Aug 31, 2015 31:53 AM

    Oil was going down until there was an OPEC press release about a ‘fair price’ and oil soars.

      Aug 31, 2015 31:54 AM

      at least Bob is reacted correctly unlike so many other sectors, I hope you added to your long oil sector position from last week…..$$$$$$$$

        Aug 31, 2015 31:13 AM

        Why would I add to a long position when oil was going down – oil has only bounced because of that OPEC press release… which is just a press release… Saudi is the driver of oil and, as of yet, it has shown no desire to change its position.

          Aug 31, 2015 31:22 AM

          learn to read a chart Bob, covering my oil short position was not based on calls of oil going to $30 or $100 when the chart turns bullish just as it did in March turning from $42 to $62 you get long and toss the reasons to the wind!

            Aug 31, 2015 31:33 AM

            I think you are in denial – the move up in oil had nothing to do with your charts. It was the Saudi move into Yemen last Thursday.

            Today oil was going back down quite nicely – presumably because all the oil shorts had covered by close last Friday – until a very convenient OPEC press release came out mid morning.

            Anyone who thinks that the Saudi invasion and today’s press release are not the key reasons for the rally is just ignoring the obvious IMPO.

            Aug 31, 2015 31:38 AM

            your 100% correct Bob, so your long and enjoying these great gains, well done!

            There will always be a reason for the chart to suggest shorting or a long position, yes the events you mention drive the reaction but how many goldbugs sold their positions as they watched the price continue to fall off the 2011 highs based on guru pumping, the chart had one selling, big difference!

            Aug 31, 2015 31:43 AM

            I have no idea what you are talking about re 2011.

            I don’t normally listen to Zerohedge but there is an interesting paragraph on there in one article today poiting out that a hedge fund would be in enormous trouble, allegedly, if oil closes the end of the month below a certain price.

            How they would know this I do not know – would or could they know this?

    CFS
    Aug 31, 2015 31:58 AM

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC

    European markets jumped way ahead of the US today.

    Gary, Oil was oversold

      Aug 31, 2015 31:04 AM

      I’ve been telling everyon for weeks to watch oil that it was ready to bottom and possibly put in a major three year cycle low. No one ever believes me at these major turning points.

        Aug 31, 2015 31:46 PM

        I have been on your page all along Gary and left many similar comments. This one was too obvious. Makes me wonder why so few could see it coming. Weird.

    CFS
    Aug 31, 2015 31:03 AM

    Today is a bank holiday in England, so the early movement in oil is rather puzzling.
    Something happened in Europe. Just what, I do not know.

    Aug 31, 2015 31:04 AM

    Gold prices in $CAD is more closely correlated with TIP prices than the $US gold price. The dollar has to decline some. But that also means interest rate declines in U.S. Treasuries.

    http://schrts.co/ScNUyN

    Aug 31, 2015 31:06 AM

    Gary, fundamentals at market bottoms or tops, your are 1000% correct, fundamentals will never catch the turn in a bear or bull, the charts always do!

      Aug 31, 2015 31:08 AM

      you’re 1000% correct!

      CFS
      Aug 31, 2015 31:19 AM

      Toro Caca in my opinion, jj

        Aug 31, 2015 31:25 AM

        CFS just like james the lesser just because you don’t know how to trade off a chart doesn’t mean others can’t, I know can’t teach an old dog new tricks, lol

          CFS
          Aug 31, 2015 31:49 AM

          I don’t need to read charts. You said fundamentals never catch turns. Just go back on my posts over the last couple of weeks on energy.
          I’m a fundamentalist. I never said energy would continue down, but several chartists did. (Not Gary) I think it is going to be in a trading range for a couple of years.

            Aug 31, 2015 31:57 AM

            good call CFS, but you can’t move any chart with your outlook it takes market momentum to do so, oil was going down until its indicators turned positive which they did, anyone still short oil has no idea what they are doing, none!

    Aug 31, 2015 31:13 AM

    I bought some more XOP when oil hit 43.60. Oil now at 48.10.

    CFS
    Aug 31, 2015 31:17 AM

    Bloomberg has consistently in the last few weeks misreporting oil information in my opinion.
    e.g. 8/26 article claimed Saudi Arabia was cutting back on investment in oil.

    The truth from the source:
    On it’s website, the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) identifies Saudi Arabia as the world’s premier energy economy, describes the outlook for the Saudi energy sector as never having been brighter or more secure and poised for unprecedented growth, diversification, and profitability, and asserts that the high oil revenue environment has spurred a boom in both oil projects.
    Hardly in agreement with Bloomberg!
    It appears to me SAGIA is not making idle claims. It lists energy-related projects totaling $318 billion , “large-scale capital spending [is] applied to building new capacity and expansion of existing facilities.” Of this, the Saudi government will finance $239 billion, while private investors will finance $79 billion, as well as investments in refining , although no time-frame is given.

    As a fundamental analyst, what you don’t know is always the problem!
    Knowledge is power.

    Aug 31, 2015 31:17 AM

    The dollar has been rejected at the 20 wma for weeks, but I thought it might manage to get through it this morning based on the action last week.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p02672111545&a=421320680&listNum=1

    Aug 31, 2015 31:17 AM

    geo political= oil…like… the oil producers collude… ?!

    CFS
    Aug 31, 2015 31:21 AM

    That’s my belief, Agatha.

    CFS
    Aug 31, 2015 31:22 AM

    The unknown is how fast can Iran ramp up.

      CFS
      Aug 31, 2015 31:37 AM

      Thanks FranSix for posting that…..I also say volume speaks as loudly as price.

        Aug 31, 2015 31:57 AM

        I too was very surprised at the volume!

    Aug 31, 2015 31:29 AM

    Maybe the oil producers will finally work together to reduce production.

    Aug 31, 2015 31:31 AM

    very pertinent comments re bear mkt lows by Gary- thank you

    Aug 31, 2015 31:35 AM

    GDXJ priced in GDX is up 28% since March 18th. The implications for the sector are very bullish in the big picture.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p20695279079&a=414643240&listNum=1

    Aug 31, 2015 31:42 AM

    The oil price has been nuts today. And the dollar hardly moved? Odd..

      Aug 31, 2015 31:44 AM

      Yep, crazy isn’t it – oil is being heavily manipulated IMPO.

        Aug 31, 2015 31:00 AM

        OMG, what is it with the posters here? every time anything moves its due to manipulation, good grief! how about massive short covering in oil from a very oversold level=sub $40, Yemen news and today the first time in a year OPEC suggests enough is enough, manipulation, you listen to Gary far too much, lol

          Aug 31, 2015 31:50 PM

          Gary is really brilliant. I think he ruin some of it with all the manipulation talk. Take that portion out and he sounds like a market guru.

        CFS
        Aug 31, 2015 31:50 PM

        How and by whom, do you think?

          CFS
          Aug 31, 2015 31:52 PM

          Question for Bob UK

      Aug 31, 2015 31:04 AM

      Chartster, last night I did say that “If oil is going to a new low, I think it will happen after it first goes to at least $50-$55.”

        Aug 31, 2015 31:09 AM

        That is interesting Matthew – I will go and see if I can find your post.

          Aug 31, 2015 31:13 AM

          It’s about least three-quarters of the way down the page, maybe a little more.

            Aug 31, 2015 31:14 AM

            Yes, just having a read of it now Matthew and also looking at your chart. Interesting. I will have to digest it 🙂

            Aug 31, 2015 31:22 AM

            You probably noticed that today’s action isn’t showing on that chart but it will this evening if want to look at it then. (I don’t know why stockcharts can provide live action for some items but not others. 🙁 )

            Aug 31, 2015 31:43 PM

            Agreed on stockcharts not posting live info, and I dislike having to wait for the close. I use Yahoo charts intraday as a result and stockcharts for longer range time periods.

        Aug 31, 2015 31:11 AM

        Yea, I saw that chart you posted. Pretty good one.

      Aug 31, 2015 31:41 PM

      Dollar looks to me like it is turning down after hours and tomorrow.

        Sep 01, 2015 01:32 PM

        And it did….right on schedule. Nice.

    Aug 31, 2015 31:52 AM

    It is really weird. The physical delivery of light crude per barrel is 28 to 40 depending on quantity and specs.

    Aug 31, 2015 31:58 AM

    Gary and Doc don’t agree….Cramer has been bearish which is weird…Gartman flip flops regularly. I actually agree with Cramer here. I think we will go lower for awhile, at least into the Fed meeting.

    Aug 31, 2015 31:00 PM

    China Rocked By Another Massive Chemical Explosion
    Tyler Durden’s pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/31/2015 14:12 -0400

    China Twitter Twitter

    inShare
    11

    Seriously, what the f##k is going on over there?

    *BLAST SEEN IN CHEM. IND. ZONE IN SHANDONG, CHINA: PEOPLES DAILY
    This is the second explosion in Shandong, which both follow the huge and deadly explosion in Tianjin.

    We’ll await the details which we imagine will suggest that, as was the case in Tianjin, many more tonnes of something terribly toxic were stored than is allowed under China’s regulatory regime which apparently only applies to those who are not somehow connected to the Politburo.

    After the last Shandong explosion, The People’s Daily reported that the plant contained adiponitrile, which the CDC says can cause “irritation eyes, skin, respiratory system; headache, dizziness, lassitude (weakness, exhaustion), confusion, convulsions; blurred vision; dyspnea (breathing difficulty); abdominal pain, nausea, [and] vomiting.”

    Aug 31, 2015 31:39 PM

    That was another excellent show Gary. Keep up the great work (sorry if I was a little hard on you last week…the whole conspiracy angle makes me nuts). Anyway you made some really great comments today. I am looking for oil to settle down tonight and most of tomorrow and then do a little retrace before heading higher again. So there is another chance to catch the updraft come later in the week.

    Aug 31, 2015 31:41 PM

    Bless you Al hehe