Gary Savage – Mon 31 Aug, 2015

Gary is watching the Japanese Yen to foreshadow movements in commodities

Gary kicks off today with a focus on the Japanese Yen. He brings up the relationship between the Yen and commodities relating what happened. We then move to oil which has moved up quite nicely since when we recorded.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Here is a link to the charts Gary mentioned in the interview.


Featuring:
Gary SavageAl KorelinCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On August 31, 2015 at 9:45 am,
    original jj says:
  2. On August 31, 2015 at 9:46 am,
    original jj says:

    Gary $yen has been the leading trend indicator for gold since summer of 2007!!!!!!!!!!

  3. On August 31, 2015 at 9:53 am,
    original jj says:

    If gold went to 100gs over night less than .05% of the planet would notice, oil is effecting us all from the street level to entire countries!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-31/forget-china-oil-price-main-driver-market-turmoil

    • On August 31, 2015 at 10:02 am,
      Matthew says:

      So less than .05% of the planet has a brain? Sounds about right.
      Theft by currency devaluation (inflation) affects us all from the street level to entire countries!

      • On August 31, 2015 at 10:08 am,
        original jj says:

        your learning Matty!

        • On August 31, 2015 at 10:12 am,
          Matthew says:

          Apparently you’re not, JJ! It makes no difference if most people would notice gold or not.

    • On August 31, 2015 at 10:10 am,
      Wiseguy says:

      Haha, gold couldn’t go to $100,000 without .05% noticing. There wouldn’t be enough demand to raise the price that much. Y’all are funny.

      • On August 31, 2015 at 10:19 am,
        original jj says:

        Wow! you guys really need to notice there are other areas in the markets to make money and preserve your wealth, of course the example of 100g gold was an extreme suggestion, oil goes to $20 and the world will see countries in default, oil goes to $150 and we will see economies collapse as food would skyrocket!

        Try just for a second Matt to understand something you haven’t posted, gold only means something to those that follow it and the majority of the planet isn’t aware of golds pricing, but they sure are aware of oil as it effects almost everything in our day to day living costs….lighten up guys!

        • On August 31, 2015 at 10:28 am,
          Matthew says:

          Stick with trading, JJ. You clearly do not understand money or economics.

          • On August 31, 2015 at 10:34 am,
            original jj says:

            That’s your opinion, which is worthless, I’ll stick to what makes money!

          • On August 31, 2015 at 10:37 am,
            Matthew says:

            That’s what I advised, stick with trading!

    • On August 31, 2015 at 11:58 am,
      Power Corrupts says:

      I find some in the fact that Ray Dalio and Stanley Druckenmiller are numbered among the .05%

      • On August 31, 2015 at 12:00 pm,
        Power Corrupts says:

        ‘solace’

        • On August 31, 2015 at 12:08 pm,
          original jj says:

          I find none, just look at the amount of money Eric Sprott another Billionaire has lost with his buy only approach to the pm’s sector these past 4 years.

          We are going to need a lot more buyers to take gold out of its funk making lower highs before rolling over yet again and lower lows

          There was a time oil would move gold, one look today tells you gold is dead money while those in oil are killing it !! trading the long and short

  4. On August 31, 2015 at 9:53 am,
    Bob UK says:

    Oil was going down until there was an OPEC press release about a ‘fair price’ and oil soars.

    • On August 31, 2015 at 9:54 am,
      original jj says:

      at least Bob is reacted correctly unlike so many other sectors, I hope you added to your long oil sector position from last week…..$$$$$$$$

      • On August 31, 2015 at 10:13 am,
        Bob UK says:

        Why would I add to a long position when oil was going down – oil has only bounced because of that OPEC press release… which is just a press release… Saudi is the driver of oil and, as of yet, it has shown no desire to change its position.

        • On August 31, 2015 at 10:22 am,
          original jj says:

          learn to read a chart Bob, covering my oil short position was not based on calls of oil going to $30 or $100 when the chart turns bullish just as it did in March turning from $42 to $62 you get long and toss the reasons to the wind!

          • On August 31, 2015 at 10:33 am,
            Bob UK says:

            I think you are in denial – the move up in oil had nothing to do with your charts. It was the Saudi move into Yemen last Thursday.

            Today oil was going back down quite nicely – presumably because all the oil shorts had covered by close last Friday – until a very convenient OPEC press release came out mid morning.

            Anyone who thinks that the Saudi invasion and today’s press release are not the key reasons for the rally is just ignoring the obvious IMPO.

          • On August 31, 2015 at 10:38 am,
            original jj says:

            your 100% correct Bob, so your long and enjoying these great gains, well done!

            There will always be a reason for the chart to suggest shorting or a long position, yes the events you mention drive the reaction but how many goldbugs sold their positions as they watched the price continue to fall off the 2011 highs based on guru pumping, the chart had one selling, big difference!

          • On August 31, 2015 at 10:43 am,
            Bob UK says:

            I have no idea what you are talking about re 2011.

            I don’t normally listen to Zerohedge but there is an interesting paragraph on there in one article today poiting out that a hedge fund would be in enormous trouble, allegedly, if oil closes the end of the month below a certain price.

            How they would know this I do not know – would or could they know this?

  5. On August 31, 2015 at 9:58 am,
    CFS says:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC

    European markets jumped way ahead of the US today.

    Gary, Oil was oversold

    • On August 31, 2015 at 10:04 am,
      gary says:

      I’ve been telling everyon for weeks to watch oil that it was ready to bottom and possibly put in a major three year cycle low. No one ever believes me at these major turning points.

      • On August 31, 2015 at 3:46 pm,
        A Listener says:

        I have been on your page all along Gary and left many similar comments. This one was too obvious. Makes me wonder why so few could see it coming. Weird.

  6. On August 31, 2015 at 10:03 am,
    CFS says:

    Today is a bank holiday in England, so the early movement in oil is rather puzzling.
    Something happened in Europe. Just what, I do not know.

  7. On August 31, 2015 at 10:04 am,
    FranSix says:

    Gold prices in $CAD is more closely correlated with TIP prices than the $US gold price. The dollar has to decline some. But that also means interest rate declines in U.S. Treasuries.

    http://schrts.co/ScNUyN

  8. On August 31, 2015 at 10:06 am,
    original jj says:

    Gary, fundamentals at market bottoms or tops, your are 1000% correct, fundamentals will never catch the turn in a bear or bull, the charts always do!

    • On August 31, 2015 at 10:08 am,
      original jj says:

      you’re 1000% correct!

    • On August 31, 2015 at 10:19 am,
      CFS says:

      Toro Caca in my opinion, jj

      • On August 31, 2015 at 10:25 am,
        original jj says:

        CFS just like james the lesser just because you don’t know how to trade off a chart doesn’t mean others can’t, I know can’t teach an old dog new tricks, lol

        • On August 31, 2015 at 10:49 am,
          CFS says:

          I don’t need to read charts. You said fundamentals never catch turns. Just go back on my posts over the last couple of weeks on energy.
          I’m a fundamentalist. I never said energy would continue down, but several chartists did. (Not Gary) I think it is going to be in a trading range for a couple of years.

          • On August 31, 2015 at 10:57 am,
            original jj says:

            good call CFS, but you can’t move any chart with your outlook it takes market momentum to do so, oil was going down until its indicators turned positive which they did, anyone still short oil has no idea what they are doing, none!

  9. On August 31, 2015 at 10:13 am,
    Paul L. says:

    I bought some more XOP when oil hit 43.60. Oil now at 48.10.

  10. On August 31, 2015 at 10:17 am,
    CFS says:

    Bloomberg has consistently in the last few weeks misreporting oil information in my opinion.
    e.g. 8/26 article claimed Saudi Arabia was cutting back on investment in oil.

    The truth from the source:
    On it’s website, the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) identifies Saudi Arabia as the world’s premier energy economy, describes the outlook for the Saudi energy sector as never having been brighter or more secure and poised for unprecedented growth, diversification, and profitability, and asserts that the high oil revenue environment has spurred a boom in both oil projects.
    Hardly in agreement with Bloomberg!
    It appears to me SAGIA is not making idle claims. It lists energy-related projects totaling $318 billion , “large-scale capital spending [is] applied to building new capacity and expansion of existing facilities.” Of this, the Saudi government will finance $239 billion, while private investors will finance $79 billion, as well as investments in refining , although no time-frame is given.

    As a fundamental analyst, what you don’t know is always the problem!
    Knowledge is power.

  11. On August 31, 2015 at 10:17 am,
    Matthew says:

    The dollar has been rejected at the 20 wma for weeks, but I thought it might manage to get through it this morning based on the action last week.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p02672111545&a=421320680&listNum=1

  12. On August 31, 2015 at 10:17 am,
    Agatha says:

    geo political= oil…like… the oil producers collude… ?!

  13. On August 31, 2015 at 10:21 am,
    CFS says:

    That’s my belief, Agatha.

  14. On August 31, 2015 at 10:22 am,
    CFS says:

    The unknown is how fast can Iran ramp up.

  15. On August 31, 2015 at 10:22 am,
    FranSix says:
    • On August 31, 2015 at 10:37 am,
      CFS says:

      Thanks FranSix for posting that…..I also say volume speaks as loudly as price.

      • On August 31, 2015 at 10:57 am,
        FranSix says:

        I too was very surprised at the volume!

  16. On August 31, 2015 at 10:29 am,
    Paul L. says:

    Maybe the oil producers will finally work together to reduce production.

  17. On August 31, 2015 at 10:31 am,
    Agatha says:

    very pertinent comments re bear mkt lows by Gary- thank you

  18. On August 31, 2015 at 10:35 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDXJ priced in GDX is up 28% since March 18th. The implications for the sector are very bullish in the big picture.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p20695279079&a=414643240&listNum=1

  19. On August 31, 2015 at 10:42 am,
    Chartster says:

    The oil price has been nuts today. And the dollar hardly moved? Odd..

    • On August 31, 2015 at 10:44 am,
      Bob UK says:

      Yep, crazy isn’t it – oil is being heavily manipulated IMPO.

      • On August 31, 2015 at 11:00 am,
        original jj says:

        OMG, what is it with the posters here? every time anything moves its due to manipulation, good grief! how about massive short covering in oil from a very oversold level=sub $40, Yemen news and today the first time in a year OPEC suggests enough is enough, manipulation, you listen to Gary far too much, lol

        • On August 31, 2015 at 3:50 pm,
          A Listener says:

          Gary is really brilliant. I think he ruin some of it with all the manipulation talk. Take that portion out and he sounds like a market guru.

      • On August 31, 2015 at 3:50 pm,
        CFS says:

        How and by whom, do you think?

        • On August 31, 2015 at 3:52 pm,
          CFS says:

          Question for Bob UK

    • On August 31, 2015 at 11:04 am,
      Matthew says:

      Chartster, last night I did say that “If oil is going to a new low, I think it will happen after it first goes to at least $50-$55.”

      • On August 31, 2015 at 11:09 am,
        Bob UK says:

        That is interesting Matthew – I will go and see if I can find your post.

        • On August 31, 2015 at 11:13 am,
          Matthew says:

          It’s about least three-quarters of the way down the page, maybe a little more.

          • On August 31, 2015 at 11:14 am,
            Bob UK says:

            Yes, just having a read of it now Matthew and also looking at your chart. Interesting. I will have to digest it 🙂

          • On August 31, 2015 at 11:22 am,
            Matthew says:

            You probably noticed that today’s action isn’t showing on that chart but it will this evening if want to look at it then. (I don’t know why stockcharts can provide live action for some items but not others. 🙁 )

          • On August 31, 2015 at 12:43 pm,
            Shad says:

            Agreed on stockcharts not posting live info, and I dislike having to wait for the close. I use Yahoo charts intraday as a result and stockcharts for longer range time periods.

      • On August 31, 2015 at 11:11 am,
        Chartster says:

        Yea, I saw that chart you posted. Pretty good one.

    • On August 31, 2015 at 3:41 pm,
      A Listener says:

      Dollar looks to me like it is turning down after hours and tomorrow.

      • On September 1, 2015 at 1:32 pm,
        A Listener says:

        And it did….right on schedule. Nice.

  20. On August 31, 2015 at 10:52 am,
    Chartster says:

    It is really weird. The physical delivery of light crude per barrel is 28 to 40 depending on quantity and specs.

  21. On August 31, 2015 at 11:58 am,
    Tenyear says:

    Gary and Doc don’t agree….Cramer has been bearish which is weird…Gartman flip flops regularly. I actually agree with Cramer here. I think we will go lower for awhile, at least into the Fed meeting.

  22. On August 31, 2015 at 1:00 pm,
    Agatha says:

    China Rocked By Another Massive Chemical Explosion
    Tyler Durden’s pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/31/2015 14:12 -0400

    China Twitter Twitter

    inShare
    11

    Seriously, what the f##k is going on over there?

    *BLAST SEEN IN CHEM. IND. ZONE IN SHANDONG, CHINA: PEOPLES DAILY
    This is the second explosion in Shandong, which both follow the huge and deadly explosion in Tianjin.

    We’ll await the details which we imagine will suggest that, as was the case in Tianjin, many more tonnes of something terribly toxic were stored than is allowed under China’s regulatory regime which apparently only applies to those who are not somehow connected to the Politburo.

    After the last Shandong explosion, The People’s Daily reported that the plant contained adiponitrile, which the CDC says can cause “irritation eyes, skin, respiratory system; headache, dizziness, lassitude (weakness, exhaustion), confusion, convulsions; blurred vision; dyspnea (breathing difficulty); abdominal pain, nausea, [and] vomiting.”

  23. On August 31, 2015 at 3:39 pm,
    A Listener says:

    That was another excellent show Gary. Keep up the great work (sorry if I was a little hard on you last week…the whole conspiracy angle makes me nuts). Anyway you made some really great comments today. I am looking for oil to settle down tonight and most of tomorrow and then do a little retrace before heading higher again. So there is another chance to catch the updraft come later in the week.

  24. On August 31, 2015 at 5:41 pm,
    stewie says:

    Bless you Al hehe