Here are Gary’s views on the markets today. What are yours?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I felt very strongly yesterday that fundamental factors would take this market down and, of course it is not happening at least today. Now I know that I am not the prettiest baby in the nursery. What do you think of Cory’s final opinion in this interview?
Let’s get your input on all of this and, I promise, I will address every single one.
No positions for me either, at this point JJ
China deal is with Venezuela not Brazil, my wrong!
I mentioned on Monday at the end of the day that I had picked up DWTI to short oil, and sold (a little too early as per usual) but made 22% profits. I picked up UWTI yesterday at $1.15 and sold in the premarkets at $1.17 (only because of a error in oil prices updating in Yahoo). Then when everything caught up at the pricing and oil was up I felt like an idiot, but then it reversed down hard. I picked up some UWTI at $1.09, but got stopped out at $1.04, erasing some of the gains from DWTI.
I am on the sidelines for now expecting Oil to pull back down into the high $42s and then I’m going back in to UWTI, because I do think Oil will still make an attempt at the $52-$53 level (maybe next week at this point and with the long weekend).
Man, these Oil markets are CRAZY….
I got fleeced earlier to the downside, and now just made a killing on the way back up for a wash for the day in UWTI. What a nail biter 🙂
I’m shocked you are not trading a leveraged VIX, jj.
my indicators are not suggesting buying the VIX the last 6 days,it did from Aug 19-25 but not since
So why haven’t the precious metals been ‘working’ since they spiked higher in 2011?
“We hypothesize that, having learned from the misadventures of the 1960s, the policy elites, well-versed in the practice of financial engineering and market manipulation, would have seen no need to dump stocks of government gold reserves onto the market, 1960s style, to keep the price in check.
Instead, synthetic gold, sourced in pyramids of credit extended to bullion bankers by central banks with little or no claim on physical substance, have provided a more efficient, better-camouflaged form of intervention. COMEX synthetic gold and related over-the-counter derivatives are traded in macro strategies implemented by hedge funds, high-frequency trades, and commodity funds in pair trades with interest-rate, currencies, equity futures, or even more exotic offsets. The volumes traded are huge, and bear little resemblance to actual flows of physical metal.
We suspect that shorting gold has come to seem like a riskless proposition as long as there is confidence in the Fed. Synthetic gold is the perfect substance for a carry trade: an easy borrow with very low carrying cost and little upside basis risk. Such a hypothesis, in our opinion, does much to explain the incongruity of a declining gold price while fundamentals for paper currency, and the U.S. dollar in particular, obviously deteriorate; while demand for physical gold has exceeded new mine supply for several years running; and while above-ground 400-ounce .995-gold bars located in London, New York, and other financial capitals (in cohabitation with speculative trading activity in paper markets) have steadily dwindled and disappeared into Asian financial centers reformulated as .9999 kilo bars.”
http://tocqueville.com/insights/tocqueville-gold-strategy-2Q15-partII
Thanks for the link, Gabriel.
Very nicely written nonsense from those Tocqueville guys. It’s 100% bullsh*t too. But thanks for the laughs Gabriel. I needed that today.
Saudi King is meeting Obama this weekend – just wondering whether there will be a nice press conference about an agreement for Saudi to cut production… and in the background some agreement to sell more missiles, fighters, etc, etc, to Saudi.
Cut oil production I meant.
Bill Holter :
“The press has speculated the meeting has to do with the Iran deal or even aggressions with Yemen. I don’t think so. My guess is King Salman may be coming to Washington to say “the deal is off”. The “deal” being Henry Kissinger’s early 1970′s petrodollar. I suspect Saudi Arabia will inform our commandeer in chief, they will begin accepting yuan for oil. The Saudis have over the last year or more done many trade deals with both Russia and China. It should only follow at some point they do not use dollars but instead use their own currencies.”
Interesting.
I think that would be a very risky thing for the Saudis to do. I doubt they will do that because the backing of the US keeps the House of Saud in power.
Russia took over this year as China’s #1 oil importer, excepting payment in Yuan, SA is missing out demanding payment from China in $’s
Very risky unless they secure another protection. Slave can never afford to fight his master.
Pity the Yank has sided with Iran,the largest enemy of the House of Saud.
Interesting time …
This visit could potentially be a turning point in Saudi-U.S. relations,
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/09/02/a-middle-east-on-fire-tests-us-saudi-relations
I would certainly agree with you Bob UK
I doubt that too, Bob. If the Saudi’s are going it is because they are being summoned, not because they are going to dictate terms to Washington.
Al, are you just saying you agree to be nice or do you honestly mean that?
End of the petrodollar is the big bang.Game over.
It would definitely be a major event!
I am not trying to just be nice. It is certainly a possibility that it could be a major turning point when you consider Russian and Chinese influence. And when you further consider the US position right now on Iran.
In this world,anything is possible and nothing can be discounted unless a person has given it serious consideration. The chess game is getting more and more intricate.
Listen to our discussion today with Doc.
another reason NOT to hold any oil positions over the weekend, you’ve been warned!…lol
that meeting is in Washington fwiw
Probably makes sense, Original.
I just got out of my Oil position in UWTI for a wash – got fleeced to the downside and made it all back up on the upswing. I’m out at a wash for the day because the Oil market is just to crazy making hairpin turns every 30 mins or so. The whipsaw is in full effect.
Interesting budding relationship, huh Bob UK!
I doubt that they will be sharing a beer and watching the game together Al 🙂
Oil is going up. The goals of the past have been achieved. Russia was eviscerated, Syria is in shambles, the dollar took a rocket ride up at the correct time and now there is a change at hand with a new agenda.
A listener. You have exposed your manipulation theory you try to hide. I agree with you on this.😄
Docket # 950 Allied Nevada Impact Statement
This is one hell of an impact statement from an Allied Nevada shareholder. Theft in plain sight. Hope the link works.
That shareholder has no business investing as he is completely void of thought, anyone who watches a high of $44 turn into a $1 and does nothing deserves nothing!!
I would also agree with this one, Original JJ!
Somebody stole that shareholders brain! that’s the real theft, lack of intelligence!
Maybe, I misunderstood your response, Big Al.
You don’t believe fraudulent misrepresentation should be attacked? And a promoter should be allowed to benefit from his immoral behavior?
Of course I believe that fraudulent misrepresentation should be punished. Why wouldn’t any rationale human being believe that?
What about the people saying there are shortages in PMs?
I went today and as usual there is all you want.
Everything I bought was dated 2015, what was that about the N.A. mints shutting down production?
Oh ya, its a shortage.
Don’t know how these guys havnt lost all credibility over the years.
I read an article about the use and care of tools for “preppers” a few days ago, having used tools all my life I can tell you they didn’t have a clue.
Makes ya wonder if they know anything about what they write about.
GOOD one bb…………
concerning 2nd to the last, and last sentence………
BB, how do you define “all you want?” I just checked with a dealer that I used for many years and most silver products have an estimated delivery date 60 to 70 days out.
If you buy 500 or Silver Eagles, he charges 18.50/oz. That is cheaper than APMEX but still a hefty premium over spot AND you’d still not get them for two months or more. That’s called a shortage. Given that a buyer today would be allowing the dealer to short the metal to him, one would think that the premium would be within the normal % over spot.
Perhaps your experience is different because silver has soared vs your currency so plenty of metal is finding its way into your local coin store. But again, I have to wonder how much is really available there. Could ten guys walk in and each buy 10,000 ounces or more?
Good comment bb. It is about time more people stood up and told the prepper’s and doomer’s to go to hell. Their philosophy just takes money straight out of the pockets of the believers and adherants.
Matthew, why would silver which is priced in US dollars all over the globe find its way into bb’s coin store when there is no more real profit in a local currency that is in decline against the base metal. Makes no sense to me at all.
Did millions of tonnes of silver and gold find a special attraction to Zimbabwe shops for example? I hope you get my point.
A…..LISTENER…….Why would you want to tell them to go to hell?
Mathew, I use Albern in Calgary.
They are a currency exchange not really a coin store, maybe that’s the difference?
Coin stores around here are limited in supply. At least when I asked them.
If you really are after 10k onces Mathew why would you bother with coin shops?
As far as what they had today, 1/2 0nce to 100 once silver bars/coins displayed in the showcases and gram bars/coins up or gold.
O, I was also the only buyer,3 people selling, no line ups.
I have never seen a thousand once bar there, maybe kept In back?
EXPERIENCE IS THE BEST TEACHER………….
I AM not sure I would want to go and buy 10,000 oz at a time,,,,,to much weight, and to many people would notice, and maybe rob you………………….jmho.
BIG OWL……..our entire system is made up of FRAUD……..
A Listener, the reason the coins would show up there is that the Canadian $ price of silver is now about 33% higher than the USD price. So the Canadian who held metal as a hedge may now want to sell some of it for various reasons. The perception that it is the bargain of the decade has to be much greater in the U.S. than in Canada.
In addition, getting squeezed by a plummeting currency is sure to force some people to sell some as some of their needs become much more expensive. Then there’s portfolio rebalancing. Most tend to do that based on their home currency.
BB re: “If you really are after 10k onces Mathew why would you bother with coin shops?”
I wouldn’t, BB, but it’s your example and your claim that there’s plenty of metal available. There is a long wait at my favorite dealer and it is not a coin shop. In fact, they sell no numismatics or collectibles at all, have minimums, and do not allow walk-ins. They can handle high rollers.
You’re right to imply that coin shops proves nothing so I don’t know why you chose to use your experience in one in the first place.
I was not talking about 1,000 oz bars btw. No one would choose those over smaller items unless they’re buying tonnage, in my opinion. And even then, only if the savings is substantial.
Frank – At $150,000, ten thousand ounces isn’t much. But an armored car and private storage is advised. I hired an armored vehicle to transport metal in Hong Kong once and it was not expensive. Flying it to Hong Kong cost a bit more. 😮
Matthew……I agree that 10,000 and $150,000 is not much. I just have a hard time trusting anyone with anything at this point. And me picking up that much weight at one time is hard to haul in the trunk of the car…….lol
I like that you hired an armored vehicle to transport metals in Hong Kong. Wise.
You must have missed the part about the false and misleading statements made by management in PR’s and SEC filings. The whole thing smacks of an intentional takedown into gold’s lows. If they company was so rotten, why were some of the biggest law firms in the country brought in to hold the noteholders hands. This is the beauty part of another letter posted at Investor hub.
Mr Leclair, your company, is representing the Official Committee of Equity Security Holders of Allied Nevada Gold Corp, as appointed by the US Trustee. As the motion attached states, $1.1B in assets has been written down in 6 short months. A valuation for the debtors by Moelis and Company, which stated that the companies enterprise value was now between $200m-$300m, also states that the valuation was not done in accordance with US law and they even wrote in a ‘get out clause’ to their own valuation that it was – and I quote – ‘ not necessarily indicative of actual value, which may be significantly higher or lower than the estimate herein ‘. Seriously, who makes a valuation and then puts in a sentence such as this one?
Oh no doubt dodgy dealings were going on but its a perfect example of fundamentals will kill you, the chart would have had you out of this company off the $44 highs, if a stocks value is breaking down GET OUT the price is very telling!
DERR in the headlights or what = road kill portfolio
deer
It’s the dodgy dealings that have to be addressed. This isn’t the first company the Chairman & CFO have taken to the woodshed. I undrestand fundamentally what you are saying, but to announce…
Allied Nevada Announces Preliminary Full Year 2014 Gold and Silver Sales Increase 19%
and 115%, Respectively, Year-Over-Year
and publish…“In 2014 we achieved a number of key goals, including completing positive prefeasibility and feasibility studies for the Hycroft mill project, increasing production and improving efficiency at the mine. While we did not hit our original production and sales targets for the year, we believe we have learned from our 2014 efforts and benefited from our focus on costs,” commented Randy Buffington. “I believe the work done in 2014 will position us well in 2015 as we continue to concentrate on operational improvements and cash generation.”
Even the most basic grade 1 level of chart investing the 200dma and the 50dma had one making great gains off ANVGQ and never looking back since $24 after riding the buy signals from $5 to $32….basic investing above and below 200dma, cheezzz
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANVGQ&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84388309740&listNum=1&a=422863285
Agree jj….first rule of investing.
DON’T LOSE MONEY!
Thanks for the clarification Markettofuture.
I read over this way too fast!
I thought Rich Carnegie wrote a brilliant letter! I hope the judge will read it and not allow the theft of ANV’s assets by management to happen.
Bonzo, I agree if the letter says what I would have to believe it says.
Very compassionate jj.
Not!
I have no compassion for stupidity CFS are all the shareholders who bought at $5 and sold at $40 crying, trade everything or become road kill, have a look around CFS see any market that you just buy blindly and hold no matter what!!
If you don’t know how to trade you should not be doing your own investing its that simple
CFS put another way any investor who bought ANY stock that went from $5 to $40+ and then down to $1 and is still holding is a complete moron regardless of the why behind its demise
OJJ, obviously people should have gotten out. That’s beside the point.
If fraud was committed, even against morons, should it not be punished?
Rich Carnegie may not be so stupid. He bought 67000 shares of ANV@ 1.00 right after the management said things would be fine for at least a year. Then they filed bankruptcy the next week. They are crooks, but if the judge does not let them steal the assets and sees that they are sold for fair value, then Mr. Carnegie may get several times a share what he paid. Good luck to him and may the ANV officers burn in hell.
It wouldn’t matter to me what management said who tosses $67gs into a stock that’s gone one way from $41!!!!!!!!!!!! to a $1 do you think for a second the street is not behind this companies future any longer, duhhhh
I’ve had much larger losses trading over the years on events that nobody saw coming, obviously R.C.’s lack of DD picked his pocket INVESTING IS RISKY….hope he gets his $$ back and signs up for a course in charting as again the most basic approach to buying or selling regardless of a wink from management is the 200dma and the 50dma and at $1 there was no suggestion to buy 1 share!
You are such a caring human being jj.
Again jj, I have to agree with you 100%.
What freaking moron would not take some profits off the table in that scenario. Its why greed is the # one enemy of too many people. I personally knew a guy who bought Bre-ex for a pittance then became a paper millionaire.
And then went on to hold the stock all the way back to the bottom Too F***ing stupid for words!
Thanks for this link, Markettofuture.
Your welcome Al. A good portion of the players have SEC 105 and other violations in this case. There will be more disclosed at the end of the week.
Thanks jonnalin, I needed that today!
Have You ever been to a modern day Latin American Sunday service? It is just really really uplifting.
Best Regards
It’s hard to believe that oil is targeted to go higher. The summer driving season is over and inventories are forecasted to increase. One logically would believe that the price of oil will collapse to below $38 vs moving up as per Gary. However, I’ve been in that fundamental position before and my pants caught on fire so what do I know.
Do you all stop driving cars in the US come September? Roads and highways deserted until next Summer?
Bob UK, sorry to be black and white. Driving, according to stats, reduces once the schools open up and weather gets cooler/colder. When driving is reduced, not eliminated, the volume of gas and hence oil is reduced. Hope that helps in determining where I was coming from.
I know – British humour.
Where does heating oil and LPG come from? Could this help the price of oil in the winter months?
We don’t believe that the price of oil will appreciate at this point.
Listen to the interview today with Doc.
Of course you will be wrong. But that’s why the market catches the majority on the wrong side of the trade all the time.
Want to bet a beer on that, A Listener?
You still owe me two bottles of wine from two separate bets in the past (I refused them if you recall). So not thanks. I don’t make bets anymore and its not because I think I might be wrong either.
What’s your downside target on oil? Just a friendly question. No money on the answer so no risk.
On the subject of whether things are going to get better or worse everyone’s opinion differs but if the bankers are propping up this market and we are not all unanimous on this point then they have a lot to lose from a market panic and downfall. Ultimately it is the public who will be at greatest risk because if the banks aren’t sound and strong we are all in big trouble. DT
its why the CDN banking index has been falling like a rock as the market tries to figure out what kind of exposure the banks have to the oil sector, ouch!
BOC will cut again
Yes, DT we are all in big trouble.
maybe chris temple can talk about banks and oil exposure.
the saudis renouncing the petrodollar is a fairy tale imo..
they’ll be well paid in weapons not to….
You are probably correct, Agatha!
There’s a subtle irony in lower oil prices and a lower dollar.
There’s a subtle goldy as well. 😉
whats the subtle irony
For the longest time people were warning the ravages of inflation, where commodities prices would go up forever, except they’ve now suffered a complete rout. At the same time, we’ve seen a vey long term downward trend in the dollar exchange rate, with a short hiatus. Normally you would expect dollar valuations to rise on oil price declines, but what we’re seeing is concommittant decline in both commodities and the dollar. Instead of the insinuation that hyperinflation takes hold, the purchasing power of the dollar is considerably weakened, and at the same time, commodities are no store of value.
Did you really expect a one to one correlation over such a brief time period Fran? Sorry but it does not work that way. One leads and the other follows. You need to look at longer dated charts in order for it to make sense.
Maybe you should learn to read.
Just read it again. I still disagree.
You like to disagree with the everything for the sake of disaggreeing because you’re Als’ sock puppet.
FranSix, I haven’t seen the sock puppet on TV for quite a long time now I know why?
According to Jim Willie the big banks will go bk because they own the hedges from the oil companys. Sorry I’m not sure which interview it was. I believe its this one though. https://youtu.be/_9amqA9uUg0
poor Mr Willie that guy has been more doom and gloom on everything even longer than B.M. …..the sky is always falling, maybe their medication is off? if the guy went short everything he has suggested would tank these past many years he’d have a penny in his pocket, what a depressing way to look at life!
And that makes three times tonight we agree. But then again, Jim Willie seems a first class nut to me and ordinarily I would not even comment by typing his name. I mean….how WRONG can you be for so many years straight and still keep a stable of followers?
Guess it speaks more to the idiocy of the readers, not the nut who puts the junky stuff out.
I cannot imagine being him and doing what he does everyday. Such a charlatan.
I have known Jim for a number of years, original jj. He is an interesting guy who I simply cannot agree with.
A Listener, as Gary says, “many people are more than willing to pay others who substantiate their own opinions.” My guess is that it makes some folks feel smarter!
True enough Al. So much of it is to massage egos in public forums and maybe get a sense of self worth when others quote you and link your articles. But some of these guys are saying stuff that is just off the wall retarded. I cannot understand the people who follow them religiously, never mind the words written by the authors of the outrageous.
Enough about Jim Willie. the guy needs more medication in my view.
The trouble with your thinking A Listener is you understand the issues, but you don’t know how to make an intelligent decision. DT
Amazing that we are still talking about Central Banks – let’s be frank, it’s a proxy for PPT… the wording has been changed.
Has it ever occurred to some of us that in order for Central Banks to be legitimate to launch new programs/measures, there need to be market turmoil first ??? Otherwise, how can they justify their future actions???
My 2 cts.
LPG
Vive la Belgique !
Best,
LPG
Many said the same thing about Peter Schiff. Laughed at him on TV when he said housing would drop.
Took profits on some of my biotech shorts today, but these criminals are going to have to try much harder if they want to shake me out of my core short position held since July.
The sock puppet still hasn’t figured out that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. DT
The stockmarket was once a place for funding companies.
Now for many on this blog it is clearly a gambling den.
how similar we have become to the end of the Roman Empire.
The Roman Empire collapsed from within, if you can’t control your borders others will decide your fate!
The majority of the investors don’t have “trading platforms” to fund companies, they have them to trade. Many companies stopped caring about their shareholders long ago with dilutive capital raisings at the worst time, reverse splits, bad acquisitions, bad management decisions, no responses from their investor relations departments, etc… The days of buying and holding shares to fund a company are long since gone, and they’ll dilute the snot out of your shares without missing a beat.
Example, I like Yamana Gold, and owned it years ago in 2010 & 2011 during the bull run in Gold. I sold that stock when it got down to $16, and only this year have starting taking short term trading positions in it again. I bought it August 5th at $1.74, sold it shortly after on Aug 10th for $2.04. Why in the world would I have wanted to hold the stock to fund the company from $16 to under $2?
P.S. – I just bought those same shares back in AUY today again for $1.74 the same price I paid for them last month. Why would I have wanted to miss out on locking in some gains and ride it right back down to the same price?
By low, sell high…..then rinse and repeat.
I used to be able to make gains on 80% of my trades but the last few months I have had significant losses and gaining on about 50% of my trades. I am having to sell stocks at losses at resistance levels and buying them back at lower levels.
BOJ intervention at their open sent the yen lower popping US equity gains, gold lower WITH yen, oil hit on triple whammy, US inventory, China deal with Brazil and Iran congress vote, more oil coming!
NO positions for this trader heading into ECB meeting and US NFP data and long weekend, Monday’s open will be very interesting.
Took half profit in UWTI when 50dma hit with wti should have sold all, lol, but todays data had the rest sold. I’ve never seen a pop flop in oil like this ever in 5 days!!!!!
Marty has 15370 dow low if broken suggest Q1 2016 lows Sept 21st is a break point for markets, higher off lows or lower