Thursday and The Doctor is Definitely in Today.
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We believe that, at least for us, Doc is signalling a buying opertunity!
DOC, sometime do you consider gold al ready reach THE botton, as Gary feels like?
Pete you mean a lower bottom than 2012, 2013, 2014 or 2015?
2015.
We could still hit a lower price but I don’t think it would be lower then 1000. However, it won’t be anytime soon.
Dow, NASDAQ and S&P just all turned negative.
Silver is currently positive! Dr. Copper leading indicator!
On the political front, Why is there no Grand Jury or special prosecutor investigating Hillary?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/1/hillary-clinton-emails-contained-spy-satellite-dat/
Look at the left side, silver gives us a middle finger today.
Doc:
S&P is not going to close above the 5 DMA (12 minutes to go). Thoughts? I think we are heading lower big time, even a test of last weeks lows which will probably happen early next week.
Metals are interesting here, because surely big money will start to flow into value soon.
I have a short on the S&P. Been green since last Friday when I took up the position after hours. Position bottomed today and started climbing.
I doubt the good calls of the Doctor, with regard to silver and possibly palladium, in that shortages may defeat his excellent chartist abilities.
Charts represent the combined knowledge of all buyers and sellers, weighted by their financial capability. Normally charts display the whole truth and a skilled observer can project the near future accurately. With a little extra input of knowledge a skilled chartist may even be able to project further into the future.
However, supply and demand (even if the demand is modified by by traders) will decide a price. My belief is that the market is not fully cognizant of future supply and demand for silver and possibly not palladium.
I understand why you titled this as a “great buying opportunity” but it wasn’t until the very end of the broadcast that you explain that you mean after all these markets bottom. I feel like the broadcast description is misleading. The buying opportunity according to Doc is at least a few months away.
I think you should sue. I can recommend the legal serivces of Denny Crane.
Har har har, I guess they have ambulance chasers in the UK also?
Yes, I drive one for the lawyers.
Doc, if you bought LLY 30 years ago would you sell it now to raise cash, even though you would lose a lot to the IRS? Thanks.
BB; technically, LLY appears that it will be under pressure for sometime—it’s had a great run—-I hate to give you a personal answer on your question since your situation might be different then mine.
Thanks, Doc. I got my sister to buy this LLY back in the 1980’s and it’s way up. She’s 70 now and I think she should sell to raise some cash before the next crash. LLY looks toppy to me.
GDX is in a weekly and daily downtrend, so Trend followers (like me) are out.
*But* the weekly chart is oversold, and as long as the recent weekly bottom of 12.96 holds, if we start to impulse up, I’d say that Gary’s right and we have a major bottom (again, based on the weekly chart).
But if we go down as Doc says, then I’d continue to stay OUT.
A reminder that a few mos back Goldman Sachs said gold would hit $1000 by end of year, I think it was. Maybe someone here knows the exact quote, and can update us? Don’t mess w/the Fed? I say, don’t mess w/GS.
Ya never know when GS is suckering the muppets.
Yes, I recall that story Bill. It was Jeffrey Currie, head of Commodities Research at Goldman who made the prediction. He actually said gold would likely fall below 1000 by year end. And he is probably right. Not a chance in hell gold ends the year higher than where we started. It is still firmly in the teeth of its own bear market and downward falling trendline.
Goldman’s Currie Sees Gold Dropping Below $1,000 on Dollar — Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-21/goldman-s-currie-sees-gold-dropping-below-1-000-as-rout-deepens
Thanks, A Listener.
And GH has a good point – do we know the track record of, how many times GS made such a public call, and how many times it was right?
Their previous gold call was that we would see 1050 gold in 2014. It actually took until July 2015 before we arrived close enough to say they were right when gold briefly touched the 1080 mark……but I am pretty sure the delay was because the bugs kept buying the dips!
So the direction was right, but just not the actual value. Thanks for that.
Anytime Bill.
Bernie lies when he says things are free.
Nothing a Government pays for is free.
Governments do not create wealth. They merely redistribute it.
The US has a problem with Crony Capitalism.
History has shown Marxism always to fail.
History has shown the best countries are those which are run conservatively, without excessive debt.
The fastest growing countries have always been those that utilize free enterprise within a capitalistic system.
(I did not say unregulated)
Those that do not learn from history are stupid, in my opinion.
FYI I just noticed that the Monthly $WTIC chart shows a *very* divergent lower low. So this means that, in a monthly timeframe (which is too long for me), that light crude is near a bottom, as evinced by the fact that downside momentum is slowing.
oh – meant the WEEKLY chart (not monthly) – sorry!
The Monthly RSI(14) is also divergent, btw.
Bottom line is, I think that crude is near a bottom.
On the PM sector, also just noticed negative divergence on the SLW and RGLD PM charts. Maybe a bottom is near? I don’t see the same neg div on GDX/GDXJ (because they didn’t make a lower low, yet).
Back in March, Eric Coffin identified the risk that China would devalue this year. Start at about 8:20 if you don’t want to watch the whole speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5NVC3sMDpU#t=20
Reaction to NFP will be worth watching
http://www.efxnews.com/story/30269/usd-playbook-nfp-scenarios-trades-rbs
How could a long term investor ignore oil as it dipped 57% below the 200 week moving average?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=8&mn=11&dy=30&id=p15581257798
Nice bullish divergence forming in the MACD!
Great question and thanks for posting that excellent chart Matthew.
How could anyone ignore oil at these ridiculous low prices? I just cannot understand how so many people can keep calling for prices another 25% to 50% lower than we already are. That makes zero sense to me.
I mean, sure, China is slowing some but they are not going below zero for gosh sakes. At most the drop is a couple of GDP points off growth but its not like a mad max economic collapse. Sheesh!
Meanwhile the media and most pundits are still talking daily about falling commodities AFTER the major commod. index’s have already bottomed proving that they are in the news business, not the investing business.
And when the price of crude is falling DESPITE rising consumption numbers across the globe hardly anyone bothers to think that maybe these low prices are a problem of speculative forces rather than supply and demand.
I just shrug my shoulders. Its like so-what to me there is a little extra supply to meet the demand. It is just a matter of time before it all gets absorbed anyway, not like this is the end of the industry. Unlike gold, we know all that oil is destined to be burned and prices will find their level again.
These lows should be bought. At worst I am looking for a retest of the recent bottom that will come a couple months out from here, not a crash down to 30 or 20 dollars or less. Too damned funny man!
Even on an inflation adjusted basis, 40 bucks is the bottom. What I mean is that if we merely (visually) project a price point to today based on the rising trend of the past 25 years (and exclude the crazy highs) we still arrive very near to 40 dollar plus oil as the worst case scenario.
Nuttier things have happened though. But this one does not make me lose any sleep.
Special Note to all you technical guys.
Take a look at the S&P today on the daily futures chart.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1
You see what I see at the end of the chart? It is a huge triangle formation that began mid August with a termination point that is possibly just days away from what will probably be an explosive move.
But in which direction? That’s an important question and nobody yet knows.
The Commercials have taken the bull side of the trade per the COTS but that does not guarantee they will be right. I only wanted to point this out because next Monday could see a substantial move in US equities and everyone should take notice and think twice before making a bet Friday they are not confident about.
Anyone of you want to hazard a guess what lies in store next week? LPG, Matthew, Shad, Doc…..?
Same pattern in play on Russell, NASDAQ and DOW.
Here is the Australian dollar (monthly). We are just pennies away from posting a reversal on that chart so that gives a confirmation the Canadian dollar may also have bottomed (for the time being anyway). Actually, depending on how you read that chart we may have already arrived at the turning point.
To my eyes the Ozzie breaks higher next week and bounces up off its lower channel. Likewise the Canadian dollar finally ends its 4 years of declines. It cannot be a coincidence that both these currencies bottom at the same time so lets give that some respect.
On the other hand, if one breaks lower then both should fall. It’s wait and see time now but this is a huge signal that the commodity bear market is about to come to its final conclusion and this should be very positive for energy and resources.
Monthly Chart Australian dollar — look at the bottom channel for a breakout to come soon.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6A&p=m1
The hourly chart of both Brent and WTI is also showing a pennant developing. My bet will be on a breakout to the upside in oil prices next week. Momentum still looks positive and some other charts are still indicating that price wants to see the 50 DMA before coming back down.
Brent Crude Futures– Finviz.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=QA&p=h1
And don’t tell anyone I said this….but I think Platinum has seen its final bottom. You need the long chart to see why though. But this idea plays into the same vein as the Canadian dollar and Ozzie also bottoming together and so improves the odds I am correct.
Platinum Futures Monthly Chart- Finviz.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PL&p=m1
Is everyone still in bed today? Wake up man!
Before even one more person asserts that the US dollar is still rising I ask them to look at this chart of the Euro and trace out the channel beginning in March up to the present and say with a straight face that it is not actually the Euro that is on the ascent…..and that confirms by default that the dollar is in decline.
And then think about what that means for the commodity space. Does the idea not sit well with everyone else that when the dollar falls that resources and their companies climb again?
We have just got to get past this notion the dollar is still going up. It is NOT GOING UP!
Euro Daily Futures Chart — Finviz.com
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=d1
Silver getting clubbed like a harp seal again. Poor thing is so innocent. And all that blood on the screen is so distasteful. Down to 14.48 already on its way to retest the lows by next week. The good news is it has put in a double bottom on the 5 minute chart so there is going to be a brief stay of execution.
Sugar close to a technical breakout. Nice!
So what’s my final conclusion here? I want to see Vale, Freeport and Teck retest their recent lows and make a bounce higher in the next weeks. I think we have a positive setup in the near future to get long the Euro, Ozzie, CAD, Crude, Platinum, Coffee and Sugar as a few examples and depending on how the charts play out.
I think copper will see its final bottom around the 2.00 dollar mark basis the futures charts and that platinum is already near or at its bottom. PalIadium probably needs a retest of its recent lows. I am ambivalent on gold and silver as they have more work to the downside.
But I cannot yet say with conviction what next week will bring for US equities although I am leaning bullish right now as traders are returning from summer vacation and its doubtful they are coming back feeling negative.
Last….the disaster predicted for September by every pundit and his dog is going to end up being nothing to write about by the time this month is over. What a bunch of hogwash. I have listened to every crazy idea from Shemitahs to Blood moons to the CERN reactor startup and even the chance of a meteorite crashing into the planet as sure signs the end is here.
I will say a little prayer that all those who promoted such nonsense these past months and with so much zeal will finally be discredited once and for all and sent packing.
They know who they are!
Brazil just had a bumper sugar harvest. Just saying.
I have been looking at coffee – the ETFs appear to be one called Jo and one called Cafe but on my screens I can’t seem to get any info on Cafe.
I only look at the charts. Fundamentals would kill me otherwise.
Maybe we should get married? 🙂
OK….you got a dowry?
Doc what do you see for the mining stocks if gold continues to grind lower, perhaps have a little pop into 2016 and then grind down again into mid-2016?
Are some of these weak gold mining majors going to head towards zero? They aren’t that far from it already.
The HUI gapped down today, then popped 5%+ and has now given back 4%+ from the high.
Meanwhile, I continue to get the occasional fill in a few juniors.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p87407745674&a=403889615