Will the conventional markets continue downward because of the employment numbers?
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The employment numbers today reflected a very low participation rate. Will this critical statistic bring fundamentals back to the conventional markets?
Yes, I have seen that and been puzzling over conflicting information on the 30 year since the futures chart is not coming to the same conclusion. My own call is for long bonds to fall though if that makes any difference at all.
I think it’s Obama’s fault.
There’s plenty of blame to go around.
Corrupt politicians, Ideological Supreme Court usurping powers it was never given, but a Marxist President that hates America does not help.
Take a look at the “ad” on youtube I posted.
Ha….u crack me up….this has been going on for DECADES!
Yup, ’bout fifteen of ’em.
More accurately Clinton and the Republican House ans Senate that repealed Glass-Steagall. Back then, we were all still surfing on the “peace dividend” following the collapse of the USSR.
But not satisfied with shared property, the power elite that populates K Street with their lobbyist got Glass Steagall repealled….and until it is brought back, this ‘stuff’ will continue to plague the ‘markets’.
Bob Moriarty, thanks for your words of encouragement:
But since you don’t understand the difference between hyperinflation and deflation, I’m sorta wasting my words.
Trade away. I’m thrilled to see you think you are smarter than this market.
Bob I don’t need to understand the difference between deflation and inflation nor do I need to know how to spell, AVI said his trading room made 130% gains trading DUST, well so did I with the summer support zone breaking down to new levels and then a quick long position with NUGT taking 50% gains.
You really bust my gut with your comments as YOU think your smart enough to call bottom after bottom after bottom based on your ego and your $XAU signals and suggest those that trade off a chart only think they can make money, really!!
You most likely don’t have stockcharts so you won’t see the details on this chart below but have Doc send it to you in an email and he can explain to you the simplicity of the chart. I pointed out one of your ego based calls June 19th 2014 as THE bottom was in and the miners were going a lot! higher, your words.
Basic upper resistance and lower support areas the XAU chart created each break down from support provided excellent gains with short positions Oct 2014 and July 2015, now we are at a key support zone again, does it break? or does it head back to test overhead resistance at 62?
Next week will be very key, just because you can’t trade off a chart Bob doesn’t mean nobody can…go ahead and call yet another bottom Bob odds are 50/50 you’ll be correct (for a short time) from these levels but as anyone can see this chart is not bullish no matter how you look at it and you should know as your THE bottom is in calls have ALL faded and headed lower, just as your calls repeatedly over the years of a Dow crash and $ crash, your calls not mine.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=15&id=p30577392904&a=423092182&listNum=1
originaljj… to what Bob Moriarty comment are you referring? Did it get deleted? Did I miss it somewhere?? thanks
On September 3, 2015 at 8:34 pm,
Bob Moriarty says:
OJJ:
You simply don’t get it. The system we have doesn’t work. We need the financial system to collapse. Whatever we end up with at the end is better than what we have now.
But since you don’t understand the difference between hyperinflation and deflation, I’m sorta wasting my words.
Trade away. I’m thrilled to see you think you are smarter than this market.
OJJ:
You may need someone to explain this too you since you don’t get it.
When a person makes an argument showing the case for both deflation and hyperinflation, only a twit would suggest that he’s for hyperinflation.
I’ll repeat so your pet poodle could get it.
$630 trillion in derivatives suggests deflation is the end game. QE Infinity and money printing suggests hyperinflation.
One will happen. I don’t know which.
May I suggest until one happens use your time wisely, give your ego a rest and learn how to read a chart, that way when the collapse you have suggested for years (add lots of nausea) does take place you can make you and your followers some real money!
Bob I don’t care in future what you say here at Al’s site as a guest of as a poster I will no longer have anything to do with the likes of your kind as I have no interest in doom and gloom fear monger preachers who refuse to acknowledge the simple chart I provide, WAFWOT
Bob….don’t agree with you on much but you are spot on here…regards…
I agree with you, Bob.
Maybe the word deflation is confusing.
Perhaps replacing it with money destruction or something else might work better
Although, does anyone really know what derivatives settlement might do….it is such a mess and second, third party risk impossible to know..
+1
Most deflationists tend to use it wrongly. Economic contractions and asset collapses are not deflation but both cause deflationary forces (which Keynesian (Marxist) governments respond to with evermore inflation).
Nice Chart!
I bought a few GDXJ calls this morning.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p08544222122&a=423098766
Can you share with us the expiry and strike?
Sep 18 -$19 & $20
Nov 20 -$27
Ok – so you see a 2 week rally starting Tuesday, followed by a plunge to maybe new lows into mid October, with a strong V-shaped recovery to May highs in November? Am I reading your thoughts? Any plans to short the final leg down into mid October?
So you’re ignoring yesterday’s gravestone doji’s in gdx/gdxj?! I guess you’re hoping for Gary’s daily cycle low to be complete shortly, although the charts aren’t showing such yet. This is why I’m waiting to buy calls. (I’m not as experienced as you are, so its hard to be a contrarian when the charts are SOOOO bearish)!
I see a potential for a short term rally as well as an intermediate term one. I don’t know if it will be two weeks or two days, so I will watch the action closely and be ready to sell.
I am front running a few of my indicators just a little this time so I’ve taken on some extra risk.
I’m actually looking at the 60 minute chart and few other things more than trying to nail the cycle low.
An ad, but true:
https://youtu.be/44_3WoLGeYk
For all those thinking the US$ will collapse, where can big money get the liquidity the $ provides, nowhere!
I don’t recall anyone here saying the dollar would collapse. Not recently anyway. But jj, it is in a downtrend right now no matter what Marty says. His predictions may kick in later but for the moment that is not the trade to be in.
JJ, it doesn’t have to collapse in terms of other currencies to continue its collapse in purchasing power. Despite the bad economy and huge decline in gold and commodities, the dollar still buys a lot less than it did in the late ’90s. Even Martin says gold is going to $5,000. While not hyperinflation, another 80% decline is a collapse in my book.
You guys should know by now that my $ collapse comment is pointed at the likes of B.M. and all the other self proclaimed gold gurus out there who have been suggesting a collapse in the $ for years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A.L. the $ is in a down trend, your reading your chart upside down my friend, major support at 93 with resistance at 97+ and 98+, the $ is up 4 cents in the last 9 days, that’s a down trend???
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=15&id=p26624452956&listNum=1&a=423100839
Its NOT Marty’s opinion is the computer data, big difference!
jj, nine days does not make a very long trend. I am looking at the dollar chart going back to the peak in March this year and it has most definitely been in a decline since that time. Go look for yourself. It’s not like I am making this up. Whatever anyone else says you still need to think for yourself because nobody gets it all 100% right.
I NEVER get anything right 100% never suggested I do???????????????????
Never suggested 9 days makes a LONG term trend put its not declining, its not breaking down below key support at 93 its heading into upper resistance, I’m not making it up, look at the chart again
Betcha it never gets above 97 1/2.
JJ, dollar falls against gold from 35 to 1100 sounds like a collapse even though it span over 40 years. How much left? 3%. This is even under the condition gold also inflate by 1.5% due to increase in above ground reserve.
Well put, Matthew.
I can’t trade off that data Matthew its for chatter at the bar over a few beers, there is no currency on the planet that buys more today than it did a year ago or 5 years ago, of course not!
Most people aren’t traders, JJ. It would help that majority to know that the dollar offers no protection for their savings.
Gold is the one currency that buys more than it did 5 years ago. Here it is priced in the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24GNX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82864616199
…and here’s that index priced in dollars:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78824182116
I hope you noticed those giant batman ears on the 2015 portion of the $GOLD: $GNX chart Matthew…..just saying.
I don’t see it, would you take another look to be sure?….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24GNX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03321204967&a=423117194
HaHaha!! You are truly a great artist. Who knew man? Love the satanic glow to the red hair by the way. Its quite realistic. Guess I am hooked on Stockcharts now.
Man, I must need more coffee. The dollar buys more of that index too. Apologies to anyone confused by that. 😐
Matt, lets say your American and had two accounts summer of 2011, $100gs in US$ cash and another $100gs you bought gold with at $1900, 4 years later your US$ cash account won’t buy you the same amount of goods but neither would your euro$ or cdn$ or $yen as the cost of living always rises. But if you were to venture out into the world your US$ cash would buy you lots more Canadian goods or European goods, Japanese goods etc.
Your gold has gone down 42%, its lost 42% of its purchasing power in the US that’s HUGE! and to a lesser degree it buys you less goods in Euros, Cdn$, Swiss$, Gbp only yen is no loss but no gain
Come on, JJ, that’s Armstrong style cherry-picking at its finest (remember his comparison of 1980 gold to the dow?).
Investors can’t be stupid when buying ANY asset and get away with it for long. You don’t buy when the RSI 80-90 on the weekly and monthly chart or when the weekly MACD spikes straight up to a multi-decade high.
Consider this: Anyone who bought gold during the first 80-90% of 2000-2011 bull market is still in the money.
Gold has protected Canadians very well and without the risks that come with holding dollars.
Go back decade after decade after decade, JJ, and you will see that gold buys as much or more of everything while the dollar buys dramatically less. You can dollar cost average part of your portfolio into gold for life and you’ll be much better off. The same can’t be said of dollars. I book profits from every other asset class into gold for this reason.
The guy who had a million dollars in 2000 and two million today has LOST purchasing power but most likely thinks he’s a big winner and genius as he pays taxes on his imaginary gain.
Matt all I know is the last 4 years long US$’s long US equities has been the trade, the trend until the last month for US equities as the first rate hike in many years is a possibility.
Going back 100 years or picking a period of weak $ or strong gold doesn’t make me any money going FOWARD so my example is as useless as yours, its all about making money going forward not looking backwards with endless examples gone by.
I too trade to make money so that I will be able to buy a lot more of the pm’s sector when the chart confirms and have no regrets about selling my physical at $1525 and $26, but I also am not convinced the pm’s sector will enter a new bull market regardless of M.A. $5000 call, lets see that on the chart going forward. I have never been convinced just because something falls 50% it will go 50% higher than its previous highs, oil, uranium?
forward
Regarding your last sentence, prices always mean-revert and oil has not been so oversold and so far from the 200 wma in decades. The risk-reward looks good for at least some investment or a long term one.
I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with waiting for the confirmations that you want to see.
Yes there is…………….GOLD.
Above meant for JJ…….& marty is a stooge.
Due to the large dollar reserves outside of US, USD cannot afford to become a regular currency. It has to consolidate and increase its role as world reserve currency. However, due to the depletion of industry and abuse of this reserve currency role, it is not likely to happen. US has been 45 years without a single month of trade surplus. It is shocking. Now it is its financial industry which is blowing a bubble. Based on the history, it is exactly what happened to the end of a dominant currency country. Look at Great Britain, its financial industry is even higher than US and it lost its dominance over 60 years ago.
Lawrence, The nail in the coffin of the US dollar reserve status will, of course, eventually be the creation of an alternative. Most probably Russian-Asian. Not soon, but eventually.
The lack of any viable alternative currently is the only thing that holds the dollar up.
wrong CFS its the liquidity it provides as global trade
Ojj, i.e. there is no viable alternative currently to the dollar.
Isn’t that what I said?
why, whats wrong with the euro or yen or swiss franc?
JJ, you sounds like Martin Armstrong’s sidekick. This diagnose is correct, US dollar has the deepest liquidity. However, specifying this as the reason is to put cart before the horse. The liquidity is the direct result of a dollar centric financial system. If US does not issue more money, the world market will raise the value of the dollar to create more liquidity. Most of the world trade and foreign currency reserve is in dollar. People need dollar especially at the bad times. Look back to the late 70s, dollar’s position was shaken. How did Paul Volcker fixed the dollar position? Not by creating more liquidity. It is by raising interest rate to reduce liquidity. It also consolidated its position by trading oil in dollar only.
The other counter example is Argentina. Argentina creates more currency than US, if liquidity is the cause of people run into the currency, Argentine Peso will do better than dollar. However, while they print more money, its value goes down more and result in less liquidity. The reason is Peso is not the center of the world finance and it does not have credibility. Also look at Zimbabwe, their bill is in trillions, which does not help a bit for liquidity.
So I say Martin gets the direct reason right but ignore the fundamental reason. If you don’t believe this, try to print 10 times dollar overnight, I am sure it will bring down the dollar and result in much less liquidity. Confidence is the core of the world finance.
World does not need one reserve currency to trade, even it makes trade easier but it is unfair to other people. In the long run, FDR like bundle of currencies with gold as a key component will do the work of US dollar now. It has to happen since this will gut US economy. One day US may want to get out of its role voluntarily to avoid economy disaster.
sorry Lawrence I’m pro Armstrong as his calls FROM summer of 2011 have been better than anyone here and the best part is its not his opinion but a massive computer data read.
Do you actually read what you write? The US has printed an insane amount of $’s these past 7 years and the $ is where? much lower on money printing adding liquidity ot higher? it hit 100 on the index not 60-50-40
Wake up Lawrence!…….Volcker raised rates to an insane level to defeat inflation, we are now at 0 so even a mere .25% rate hike will futher support the US$ as the ECB announced this week they will be adding more QE and the BOJ will be doing the same to keep in step with the deviation of the Yuan ALL US$ bullish
Not sure What wake up all about. You are not saying anything to debate my assertion. US has created mass amount of dollar so as others. Inflation is mostly in asset not a lot in comsumer price yet. It is due to the slow process of money to flow from financial side into general economy and it also due to printed dollar flow out of US and replaced with imported goods. At same time the statistics are changed to hide inflation. People are complaining about the rise price of food and service like insurance and tuition but it never gets into the number. My wife has been furious about the price going so fast in the supermarket.
If you want to justify more money chasing same consumer goods and service, you pretty much has to justify why math is wrong. BTW, i was talking about dollar liquidity not inflation in my post. It is more relative strength of currencies not inflation or not. volcker’s move was primarily focused on maintaining dollar as the reserve currency. Not sure how you can debate against common sense.
OJJ:
All debt gets paid. It either gets paid by the borrower or it gets paid by the lender.
Depending on who you want to listen to, the listed debt and unfunded liabilities range up to $200+ trillion over the next 35 years. That’s on an economy of $17 trillion and a government collecting $3.2 trillion in taxes.
Take your pick, the US government can default, triple taxes or inflate the debt away. The only alternative we know won’t happen is actually paying off the debt.
I think the biggest danger today is counterparty risk with the $630 trillion in derivatives and there will be a default. In that case we will be quoting the USD in Zimbabwe dollars.
I’m sure you will be talking about how high the value of the dollar index is when you are using $100 trillion dollars notes to pay for quart of milk.
Big Al, Fundamentals always win sooner or later.
But then a fundamentalist would say that, wouldn’t I.
What many people do not understand is the drag of government on any economy.
Any government that takes too much (And that varies with time and conditions) will slowly erode any economy. The US government level of taxation and welfare IS SLOWLY DESTROYING the US. Unfortunately by adding the extra burden of millions of illegals it has increased the rate of destruction. The destruction (both moral and economic) is observable for those who wish to open their eyes and third world status for the US is on the distant horizon; so sad.
ditto on “The US govt level of taxation…………………SLOWLY DESTROYING.”
I bet there are more than 94 million……….
The choice to be 100% cash is playing out well, yen was 83 on a down ward move to a key support level at 82.25 but it has gone higher into a very key resistance level at 84.25 gold today is not reacting with yen as gold should be hitting $1140 its resistance zone, either gold is correct or yen is and next week should reveal todays counter trend moves as to which was the leading chart to trade off, yen is suggest a long gold trade, but gold is suggesting a short trade
CFS ……do me a favor and repost the education system in californy
It might be a good reason for MANDITORY COLLEGE……….lol
I hope not. Mandatory College!
We have mandatory schooling that turns out illiterates, and that can’t add 6+6 because they only have ten fingers.
they call that touch math…………..lol
Market calling the bluff on the labor numbers. I want to know what is going to happen when we have the full post Summer week of trading which will not occur until the week of 9/13. Labor Day was off by a week this year which threw a monkey wrench in peoples’ vacation plans and school start dates.
the reason labor participation rate is so low is all due too WW 2 also know as the baby boom . most participation countrys in WW 2 had a baby boom and now we all are ritireing i did last year at age 67 . So we all are drawing our SS old age pensions and going on medicare . Its not an emergency its just nature . . The move to raise minimum wage is the best way to stimulate the economy. My short positions in my portfolio are making me money once again. Use limit orders . best of health and wealth to you all S
This for me is the crux of the problem.If the derivative market defaults, all The World’s central banks will start to implode, how will The Fed and various central banks be able to get the required printed funds to where they are needed in time when most institutions are panicking and trying to get out from under the stampede.
I don’t think it is possible and for that reason I believe we will see massive deflation. Hyperinflation like Rick Rule say’s won’t happen if all you need to do is pull a couple of banknotes from your wallet to pay off your $300,000 mortgage. DT
I think Gary’s a really great trader, and a really nice guy.
But cycles don’t work anymore. At all. IMO.
A changing standard is no standard at all. Not for me anyways.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt090415/us_t_bond_hands.png
…yup