Covering the conventional and commodity markets with a Fed prediction
Today’s markets wrap features Chris, Gary, and Doc discussing the upward moves in the markets this week leading into the Fed interest rate decision. We wrap it up with each of our thoughts on if the Fed will raise rates.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
The manipulation already happened. It occurred on 9/9 when 88,000 contracts were dumped on the gold market, and it accomplished it’s goal and allowed the HUI to be driven down to 100.
Get this through your head. There are no free markets anymore. There haven’t been since the SEC banned short selling in financials back in 2008. The sooner you accept that we no longer have natural markets the sooner you can start anticipating when the manipulations will occur and make money off them.
I told you exactly what would happen in the stock market this week, and why, and I told you on Friday. We made money off of the intervention. Did you?
Come’on’man! Gary every load the truck cycle call you’ve made in gold that has not produced anywhere near the % pop you’ve suggested these past years has been followed by your bullion bankers attacking gold holding it down speech, I’ve lost track how many times you’ve repeated that excuse, obviously so have you.
When was the last time the S&P was down heading into a FOMC meeting?, its very rare, anyone who trades the S&P knows this. I don’t trade the S&P but trade the VIX and will be Thurs if it suggest so off the FOMC statement.
Short covering does provide a bottom but more importantly its those shorts going long and adding to those positions that create THE bottom, these past 4 years every gold rally has been a great short!
Hmm not so fast, I’ve been the only one for the last year and a half saying gold was going to eventually test the 1000-1050 level when everyone else said there was no way gold was going that low. So I don’t know what you are talking about load up the truck.
All along I’ve been warning the bear was done yet. That may be changing. But like I said I need to see how far this rally goes and where the next ICL occurs at before I make that call.
Rick A had those low gold calls and Armstrong has been suggesting that since 2011, your commentary has always been a manipulated capping of gold when your targets are not reached.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/cotd163.png
Gary I guess the gold capping on the above chart is because the manipulators are capping the $TNX as well?
I diagrammed pretty well in that chart where gold was capped. I even told Al and Cory months ago that gold was being setup to take a beating when I saw it being capped at 1220. I knew at that point they would try to force it down and break 1131. They did on that Sunday night attack with about 18000 contracts dumped on the market over the sapce of just a few minutes.
Keep in mind that the dollar did not make new highs so there was no driver for gold to break below 1131 other than that attack.
I’ll say it again, The sooner traders realize and accept that we no longer have free markets the quicker you can start to anticipate when and where these interventions will occur.
I told you exactly when and by how much the manipulation would be in stocks this week based purely on my expectation for the Fed to try to force the market up ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Barring that the market should have done just like Chris expected and traded sideways this week into the statement and then decided which way it wanted to go after the rate decision was made.
Good work Gary.
Manipulators can win all the battles but they will lose the war since time is not on their side.
Deutsche bank chimes in with four scenarios the FOMC meeting could produce, I wonder if the guy who wrote it is one of the 23,000 who will lose their jobs at DB, just like HP announcing 30,000 jobs to be axed, doesn’t sound very inflationary to me rather deflationary!
http://www.efxnews.com/story/30409/trading-fomc-theres-no-such-thing-dovish-hike-deutsche-bank
Gentlemen,
Thanks for your thoughts again.
I’m just wondering how Doc’s technicals will work out in the next few days. Logically, I would agree with Crhis’ and Doc’s position that the S&P might just continue to meander/increase a bit around the current level (1998), also following the consolidation past August 24.
But, as that is the highly preferred expectation and outcome (I think) of most traders and certainly the FED, I’m taking a contrarian position and expect a serious and immediate decline in the conventional markets.
I just have one question for Doc with regards to the technicals, and in particular on volatility: What happens to volatility if we get one fell swoop down in the S&P/DOW – say -15% in 2 days and then stay down there on that level?
Thanks
JP
JP; by the way you’re comment about taking a contrarian position is interesting. If you noticed, I mentioned how around 17000 Dow is some of the first resistance. If the market moves up considerably early on before the Fed announcement and moves closer to 17000 I’ll in all likelihood take out my short volatility position. However, if the market goes quiet before the Fed announcement (most likely) I’ll probably hold my short volatility position. Frankly, I hope the market trades higher prior to the announcement.
JP; volatility would soar in that event and then as we stay there it would in all likelihood slowly fall back to a consolidation level higher then the level it took off from. It would then hang around there waiting for the next defining move whether up or down.
Doc, last month when TGD was .27 you told me it could go as low as .20. It closed there yesterday, so when I heard Gary this morning I bought TGD@.21 Do you think it will break below .20 ? I think it will go up 10 or 15 fold if gold doubles.
BB; TGD could get a bid for awhile—but medium to long term it will probably settle back again to challenge .20. It could be good for a short term trade but not long term just yet. There is no big sign of gold breaking out significantly yet. However, if gold doubles and this company’s fundamentals are good, over time you could get your wish of significant appreciation. Of course, you could hold your position and even if it moves up short term and then reverses, you can decide whether to hold it long term or sell it. Thanks for mentioning it since I’ll have to look at the fundamentals. I’ll say the volume is huge and those that believe in volume marking a low could be in good company by taking a position.
They should have raised rates a quarter point when the s&p was at 2100. Now they may have to wait till the end of the year when the s&p might reach 2100.
Hey, calling all -EXCLUISVE – short term traders – SIMPLY FYI,,,,FYI……listen to this two minute you tube of Kyle BASS…absolutely NO response is necessary and wont be read…strictly for your edification….Jerry, Irish, REV.et. etc figured this out a long time ago…… FYI…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgNVNTvlpFY
I remember that and of course Kyle is absolutely right.
Btw, smart investors, short term traders or not, own long term physical gold!
Thanks…………SD……………
Doc, go to timminsgold.com and check the fundamentals. This company produces 120000 oz of gold a year now which will increase to 330K oz after they open 2 more mines in 2 or 3 years. Their cost per oz is about $800 and they have more cash than debt so they will be around when gold soars, and they have huge leverage to the gold price and good management.
Bonzo….Timmons gold is a very very solid mining selection!!….been a sponsor of this site for MANY MOONS!!!…not investment advice but you seem to have figured out a good one…….money, places, people and projects are the key words for ALL MINERS..PRETIUM RESOURCES just land 504 MILLION is mine development financing….things are slowly but assuredly CHANGING!!!!! ……for the better
What a long, brutal four years its been…and I met BIG AL……at the CRIC 2012 in person….seems like ages ago!!! WOWOWOWOW!
SD Marc,
I like Pretium too, as well as MUX. What do you think about NSRPF ?
I own Pretium and MUX (for ever)….let me check out NSRPF.
Peace!!
Wait a minute….Bonzo…I am getting OLD…hahaha…yes, I own NOVO…bought some about one year ago…speculative -but a good bet for a long term success story…..we shall see…one thing I really really respect and TRUST Jay Taylor….he LOVES these guys…..I am hanging on to A LOT of plays…I dont trade – I just wait for the incubation phase of this latest bear market to end – HERE IS THE BOTTOM LINE OF THIS MARKET – THE MORE BRUTAL THE BEAR MARKET…THE MORE SPECTACULAR THE FOLLOWING BULL MARKET WILL BE – we are looking at one HELL of a BULL market coming right at us in the miners…Hell valuations and prices are LOWER than when gold was trading in the 275 to 400 an ounce….can u say…O…P..P…O..R..T..U…N…I….T…Y…:)…[
BB; I’ve looked at some of the fundamentals—the recent near term don’t look so great but your comment about the future bears weight. If gold continues to languish, the price will probably languish as well. I have a model I follow to quickly ascertain the current value of a company and it tells me up front if I would be interested in the company at the current price. If we’re in a non-momentum environment for a sector or asset, it helps me determine whether I want to take a long term position at that point in time. By the way, the $800 is cash cost. The site I went to didn’t mention AISC. Their levered cash flow (last 12 months) is negative while their non levered cash flow isn’t much to write home about at this time.
Thanks, Doc. TGD won’t go up unless gold does, but when gold goes up TGD should go up much faster, just as AXU will go up much faster than silver. We talked about AXU 2 days ago and it was up 21% today !!! What do you think about NSRPF which went down today?
BB
I noticed that AXU got an upgrade today. I cant imagine how that would be the reason.
*DJ Alexco Resource Raised to Spec Buy From Hold by Canaccord Genuity >AXR.T
Thanks Brian, I didn’t know that. I sold a whole 3% of my position today, btw.
BB & Matthew
As far as I am concerned, Alexco represents the best Risk:Reward of ANY pure silver PM company on the planet. As you may know, I find the CEO maddening at times. However, the one thing I don’t think he will EVER do is an M&A deal. He envisions Alexco being an independent, 3-5 million ounce producer eventually. If 4 Moz + $50 silver actually happens in the future, Alexco could be a 100-bagger from it’s recent US$0.25 low. Remember a few years back, at $50 Silver per ounce, Alexco share price hit US$10 (from a low of $0.45) while producing less than 2 million ounces per year.
Brian
I agree and think 100x is low at $50 silver. Alexco and its costs/margins will be very different than it was when silver hit $50 in 2011. Of course, significant dilution could hold us to “just” 100x.
And I think silver will go to over $100, so AXU will do even better than 100X.
By the way, the 20% jump could have been the result of a recommendation from a major PM newsletter. It has happened before.
BIG AL AND CORY –
THIS IS A VERY VERY IMPORTANT VIDEO!!! ITS ONLY 2 MINUTES LONG..PLEASE CONSIDER GETTING IT UP ON YOUR BLOG FOR ALL TO DIGEST!
Thanks!
SD Marc
The video is UP in “my” thread a little ways..:)
OOOPs my mistake on the sponsoring part…I thought they were a sponsor…oh well..u guys get the picture!!
“Alexco Resource : Drills 5 Meters (True Width) of 7,462 Grams per Tonne Silver (240 Ounces per Tonne) at Bermingham, Along With Other Significant Silver Intercepts”
“VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Sep 17, 2015) – Alexco Resource Corp. (TSX:AXR)(NYSE MKT:AXU) today announced results from its 2015 drilling program at the Bermingham deposit in the Keno Hill Silver District in Canada’s Yukon Territory.”
Thanks Irwin. I think that explains yesterday’s action.
✔✔✔
FOMC POLL at Poly’s Place
-open to all – registered or not.
http://www.bullbeartalk.com/forum/lounge/2474-thursday-sept-17-2015-us-treasuries-trash.html#post210722
I clicked on your link but didn’t get past security:
http://content.screencast.com/users/TheFinancialTap/folders/Jing/media/a7330c1c-4785-47a2-ad44-d5bc7b85ee34/2015-09-17_0946.png
😮
Try this link:
http://www.bullbeartalk.com/forum/lounge/2475-poll-will-fed-raise-rates-today.html
Thanks for posting Irwin!
The Train Is Coming (music)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVDY0SZssyM
I was just kidding, Irwin’s link was fine.
Thanks!
That TFT link will cost ya!
Oh – belay that last comment.
It’s just a woman with gun in hand – no worries!
Lol, “just” 😮
Silver breaks 15, the obvious effort of capping it under 14 for the last few weeks seems not achieving it’s goals. I have been watching the price movement. All the tricks I can imagine has been used.
“While you wait you can look at DNN (uranium) . That’s a good looking stock set up. See also GTE and UPL – those looks like a buy right now ( Energy). XCO was up 30% (AGAIN!). To see the potential in some of these juniors, check out a 3 month chart of AXU, EGI, & GSS .”
“Good luck today”
http://www.chartfreak.com/2015/09/public-post-fed-fomc-random-thoughts-fomc-spy/
C.T. bang on nobody has any idea what the FOMC will produce so getting excited before the numbers is a pure rookie approach. Have we not seen many reversals after key FOMC meetings by just the change in language? pathetic but true!
The ECB especially with the current situation in Europe will be adding more QE and the BOJ will most likely do the same come Oct so the $ will be rising off weaker global currencies.
C.T. wouldn’t the Feds love to have one .25% or two .50% hike heading into 2016 as a pure luxury to cool a strong US$ as those rate hikes will give them the option of a verbal take down of the $ with a suggestion of a rate cut then cut .25% in 2016 to slow the $’s rise
I covered my short position two days ago and took a long position I did not add today as I’ll wait to see the reaction from the FOMC results as the Feds could surprise with either a dovish statement or a hawkish statement,,,,,these idiots have done complete about face before,,,,funny how this week is the 7th anniversary of Lehman going under, seems fitting that they raise as they pat themselves on the back with their actions these past 7 years saving the US economy ,,,,puke!!
Hope Gary has his manipulation speech ready for Thurs market wrap if all golds gains are reversed by the Fed action, lol and if gold takes out $1122 it will be a cycle call and have nothing to do with the Feds dovish action,,,,,,Gary you got it covered!