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Dollar strength continues to hurt the markets

September 22, 2015

Gary kicks off today, a day when we are seeing the conventional markets and gold (and precious metals overall) down traders continue to move in to the US dollar.

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Discussion
109 Comments
    Sep 22, 2015 22:46 AM

    Agree Al. Gold, we have a clean Hrly Pivot off 50% Fib (9/15 Low-9/18 High) on 3rd wave down. It is also a 50% Fib level on Daily July Low-Aug High. Just saying !

      Sep 22, 2015 22:52 AM

      Thanks for the input Gabriel

    Sep 22, 2015 22:01 AM

    The $ was on track to make a lower low Gary off the FOMC meeting/ no rate hike.

    What has shocked many is how soon the ECB and BOJ suggested further devaluation of their currencies which instantly pops the $ as they started the further QE suggestion this weekend past.

    Yellen could go negative rates before bringing in another round of QE….QE1-2-3 did nothing for the overall gold bulls.

    The BOJ could put in the bottom for the S&P500 as they did last Oct by adding QE

    Nice to hear you didn’t drag out your gold manipulation speech again Gary as the cycle call fails as it did in Aug

    NUGT produced a 10% profit off the Sept 14th buy signal and JNUG 8% now 100% cash again

    Tad
    Sep 22, 2015 22:13 AM

    Wow. I’m confused too. Thought we were off to the races… or nearly anyway. What’s going on today?!

    Frankly, I’m expecting one last drop in the Gold price, was hoping for a Fed Rate Rise last week to induce that drop, …and then we can hopefully feel vindicated by holding all these crappy little mining shares :/

    Looks like we’re gonna grind this out in to the new year now. They won’t raise in December. At Christmas? No chance. BUT, if every meeting is now ‘live’ then could they spring a surprise in October?

    Otherwise, they’ll have cried “wolf” too often and we should probably stop listening to that funny, nervous little grandma.

    Got to say that I’m relatively new to the show (the last 6 weeks) and I’m totally hooked. Weekend show is a must and I love the daily gold coverage from Gary with his ‘cycle’ alchemy (don’t understand it, but he sounds like he does) and ‘The Doc’ ! Great stuff guys. You are a hit here in London.

    Sep 22, 2015 22:16 AM

    I know some have discussed Endeavour Silver in the past so I thought this may be of some interest to those that follow this company:
    ______________________________________________________________________

    Endeavour Silver Infill Drilling Confirms High Grade, Gold-Silver Mineralization at Terronera Property in Jalisco State, Mexico
    VANCOUVER, BC–(Marketwired – September 22, 2015)

    http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/endeavour-silver-infill-drilling-confirms-high-grade-gold-silver-mineralization-terronera-nyse-exk-2057375.htm

      Sep 22, 2015 22:19 AM

      IF Armstrong is correct with his silver call EDR will be a great buy much, much lower from todays value

        Sep 22, 2015 22:50 AM

        Yes, I’m watching to see if the lows in PMs were the major bottom (as some have declared) or if they have a date with lower lows later in the year. I mentioned in late July that it just didn’t seem like that was the final “bloodbath phase” and that I was expecting a little further retracement. As a result, I still believed that the August bounce would be just a counter-trend rally, and so far, that is what it appeared to have been. However, since we have not tested those lows again, it still remains to be see if that was the bottom, so some investors may want to average into select mining shares on bigger pullbacks over the next few months.

        For now I’m just trying to identify companies that will survive these low metal prices, and I think Endeavour has several good assets and they continue to increase their reserves and are at least doing some exploration work. There are other Silver Companies I like more than Endeavour Silver (EXK), but it’s definitely on my dirty dozen for Silver miners.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:58 AM

          Shad you seem to have a traders gut feel I’ve know some over the years.

          Its always good to keep a yardstick of who pops the most on the big silver upswings as the momentum money is behind the story.

          GL

            Sep 22, 2015 22:05 AM

            Well, Alexco certainly popped up nicely recently. I’ve traded Coeur, Hecla, Avino Silver and Gold, Americas Silver Corp, Sierra Metals, Great Panther, Mag Silver, and Fortuna most recently (and still have a small position in Couer & Americas Silver).

            There are a number of other Silver miners I’m watching very carefully though, and may do an update to my composite charts on Silver and post those soon for a quick snapshot of the last 200 days as a quick yardstick as you say.

            Sep 23, 2015 23:39 AM

            EX………..do you like Great Panther?…thanks OOTB

        bb
        Sep 22, 2015 22:58 AM

        Absolutely JJ.
        I have no idea but silver could drop lottsa % from here yet.
        Should silver do that, miners really will be a leverage play on physical silver.

        Im sticking with profitable gold miners that pay dividends until they are not profitable.
        They will be profitable down to about $800, gold shouldnt drop much lower than that if it even gets there, unless Dent is right lol

        But you couldnt be more right with your comment.

      Sep 22, 2015 22:53 AM

      Endeavour is a great company and Brad is a great guy.

        Sep 22, 2015 22:56 AM

        Big Al if I invested my money behind all the great guys I’d be in the poor house, EDR should have protected shareholders by hedging their silver prices when Silver entered a bear market that even the blind saw

        Sep 22, 2015 22:22 PM

        I have a couple hundred of Endeavor. I used to have 700 and sold last year. It was a great company when price was going up. The management have great capability to increase production quickly and had cost under control. Now they have to cut back. I am going to wait out.

    Sep 22, 2015 22:24 AM

    Gary, you haven’t yet referred to your manipulation theory for gold and have now reverted to being baffled. In my last post on Thursday of last week I said your major bullish call on gold was an excellent contrarian indicator as gold would be a good short by the weekend. Bingo once again. Same has been true for your calls on oil and the general market.
    Oh yes gold will rally, however seasonally gold has a tough time thru October following a positive period on a relative basis in late summer. The rally for gold will most likely happened following period into the New Year. Will it then go up thousands, I doubt it but it should potentially get back to the mid 1200’s. The slide from there will probably tell the tale but nobody can predict what that will be as the world safe have has been the US dollar and will likely continue to be such particularly as the US financial system is shored up much better than in 2008.
    The market after some remaining weekness into month end will likely rally in October and correct again into US thanksgiving which will be a better buy into year end.

    There it is, no hedging or babble gab about manipulation, left and right translations, cycle highs and lows and other nonsense which you use as rubber crutches for your analysis which if followed make the lemmings lose money.

      Sep 22, 2015 22:26 AM

      harry is not me gary, lol

      Sep 22, 2015 22:38 AM

      Cycles and their left and right translations are hardly “babble gab.”
      Frankly, I think it’s sorry of you to criticize Gary for being humble enough to say that he’s baffled by the current action. If you haven’t been in the same situation before you’re deluding yourself.

        Sep 22, 2015 22:55 AM

        You are a gentleman, Matthew.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:16 AM

          Has been for a long time Al!!

          Sep 22, 2015 22:10 PM

          You got to be kidding Al!

          Don’t you read the abuse he spews every day. You might need a checkup.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:16 PM

            It’s called eye for an eye “listener.” It is always you, not me, that ends every period in which we are being civil. You just can’t hide your true feathers for long.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:43 PM

            Who was being civil? Not you that’s for sure.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:07 PM

            A period of calm has happened many times but is always ended by you. Something always sets you off. Maybe it’s just time.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:35 PM

            I am checking pretty closely. Checkup? Probably!

            Sep 22, 2015 22:08 PM

            I might get one as well. When I look at the charts I just don’t believe my eyes some days. Looks like another couple down days lie ahead for stock markets. We have a breakdown off those pennant formations and a retest of the lows looks probable.

        Sep 22, 2015 22:01 AM

        Agreed. The markets have been more baffling than usual as people are over-reacting in multiple directions (currencies, equities, bonds, and commodities are all over the place, and definite trends have been more difficult to establish).

        I respect when someone has the gonads to admit their not quite sure at present and need more data to figure out where things are headed. Nobody has a crystal ball, and technical indicators are not always correct. Things can stay over-bought, oversold, and directionless for longer than investors anticipate.

        I’m relatively neutral on most markets at present and continue to do short duration swing trades on select stocks and ETFs in PMs, Oil, Uranium, Fertilizers, Lithium, Bonds, Volatility, and other sectors, but am partially on the sidelines watching.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:04 AM

          Fertilizer………..got to eat……..10 BILLION PEOPLE BY 2050

            bb
            Sep 22, 2015 22:17 AM

            Watch “cowspiricy” Frank, 2050 could be irrelevant. As well as 10 billion people.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:22 AM

            You are correct bb…….maybe they forgot to figure in same sex marriages……..just saying………….lol

            bb
            Sep 22, 2015 22:29 AM

            You could be on to something there Frank, If everyone went gay the population would drop like a stone fixing pretty much everything.

            I myself would be gay if it wernt for the sex.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:36 AM

            Well, bb, if that were a trend,…….we would all go back to the beginning….One man, one woman……or it is called GAME OVER.

        Sep 22, 2015 22:32 AM

        when you’re in the business and use this site to promote your expertise then you take the Matthew, I’m not just being belligerent. You take the heat when you screw up like anyone else in business because in this business you’re causing people to lose their savings by believing in advice. This is particularly true when you are so sure that you’re prepared to refund subscription rates (as if that really matters relative to your potential loss for dumb advice) and then come back three days later and say your baffled.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:42 AM

          +++++++++++++10000!!!

          Sep 22, 2015 22:11 AM

          Harry,

          I have been saying for years and years, “listen to as many people as you can and then make up your own mind.

      Sep 22, 2015 22:42 AM

      harry if one is baffled they are not paying attention, Bullard and two other fed heads since the FOMC meeting have completely reversed what Yellen stated as they are putting a rate hike back into verbal play, that’s $ bullish, obviously!

      AND, The $ was on track to make a lower low off the FOMC meeting/ no rate hike.

      What has shocked many is how soon the ECB and BOJ suggested further devaluation of their currencies which instantly pops the $ as they started the further QE suggestion this weekend past.

        Sep 22, 2015 22:55 AM

        Thanks original, of course it is bullish. Glad you brought that up.

    Sep 22, 2015 22:28 AM

    Premier gold miner in the Americas – Pretium PVG. Just listened to to its presentation@ Denver gold forum. minimum 7 MMoz. Reserves. Still hitting near 4000 g in new holes outside of resource. As well as the 20MM low grade put oz in their Snowfield property.
    Virtually fully financed , all permitting completed,production in 2017. And maybe the best mining CEO in North America – Bob Quartermain.
    Listen to your favorite companies presentation ther . Go PVG, go TAHO!

      Sep 22, 2015 22:39 AM

      Miners are toast. They are so indebted and the financiers will dilute the shares to nothing even the metal price returns. The growth potential in no longer there. I am long Andy Hoffman 🙂 .

        Sep 22, 2015 22:56 AM

        Not all of them Lawrence. Consider Rye Patch and Corvus.

          bb
          Sep 22, 2015 22:14 AM

          I dont “get it”, why does anyone even consider a miner that has debt right now?

          Why wouldnt people own dividend paying profitable miners ( which will “skyrocket” with an increase in gold price) over a company burdened with debt?

          Geez, this is the crowd that keeps talking about how bad debt is for the country, everythings going to heck, but debts ok for a gold share?

          Funny, I have a hard time figuring that one out.
          To itch his own I guess.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:28 AM

            Good question bb………..debt , has to be a killer.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:22 AM

            I have not purchased shares in companies with significant debt for a long time.

          bb
          Sep 22, 2015 22:27 AM

          Your right to consider miners risky Lawrence. They are.

        Sep 22, 2015 22:59 AM

        Got to love ANDY…………..

        Sep 22, 2015 22:08 AM

        I respect you and your opinions Lawrence but in this case, I couldn’t disagree more strongly. Just stay away from the bad ones and you’ll make far greater gains in the miners than you will in gold.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:22 AM

          I, of course, agree.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:46 PM

          I don’t have your expertise and time to select the best ones. If you can go to the site to visit, you have a better chance. I agree if the metal prices rise, the miner will be up several times more but the dead ones or heavily indebted ones are going bye bye.

      Sep 22, 2015 22:56 AM

      Longer term I’m a fan of Pretium, and believe they have proved up a big enough resource, and did enough financing to survive. I respect Bob Quartermain’s track record.

      Tahoe is also a good company.

      Cheers!

        Sep 22, 2015 22:53 AM

        Yes on Tahoe.

    Sep 22, 2015 22:55 AM

    I pulled my stop on SPXS so “they” can’t run my stop. I say we retest the lows on the S&P, maybe lower.

    Tom
    Sep 22, 2015 22:37 AM

    If you can’t get an up day in gold when equities tank, then you can’t really get an up day in gold. Bear market in metals resumes.

      Sep 22, 2015 22:44 AM

      your on it Tom, so what happened to all this money that was suppose to rush into gold and silver and the miners and commodities because they were so unloved by main street when the us equities are sold?

      Safehaven still the most liquid asset the US dollar

        Sep 22, 2015 22:04 AM

        Original, I still feel bullish on gold as I stated in the conversation with Doc.

        We can all disagree, but in my mind it is all about time frame. Turtles have won races!

        Sep 22, 2015 22:13 PM

        JJ,

        To be completely honest I’ve lost the desire to debate most of the close minded bugs because in most cases everything is a contradiction in terms and quickly shows the misguided philosophical story-line to fit the days narrative.

        There always has to be narrative to argue about, to justify the long held belief systems that need to be maintained.

        What I find most fascinating about to whole gaggle of nonsense and bashing of heads against the wall about the dollar is that deep down inside all of these argumentative people want more dollars at all costs, even while trying to convince everyone they don’t. Its mystifying what people will do and say because if most believed like they speak, everyone would own 90 percent gold and silver and very few if any paper mining instruments.

        From my vantage point most folks here, meaning a good 70-90 percent don’t give two s**t about buying, owning and holding physical gold and silver for the so called great reset or the world-wide debt reconciliation that is babbled on endlessly about everyday. They really want paper as their go to everyday monetary instrument.

        If truth be told, I think the dollar has big problems that will never be corrected long-term just like all the rest of the other world-wide currency values. But in my day to day living environment and probably for the rest of my natural life, for that matter, I still want as many crappy FRN paper dollars, Yen or Yuan, Lonnie’s or Peso’s or Euro’s, Rubles or Franc’s etc. as I can get my grubby little hands on.

        Why, because that is what spends in the real world, paper currency. The rest of these one pitch ponies with no original thoughts of their own to speak of know this as well but to state the obvious would mean that they lose their membership in the good ole cult club of metallic orthodoxy.

        Why in the hell would I want or anyone else that uses the dollar as a medium of exchange want the dollar to lose value when everything in their life everyday and their personal standard of living is based on the buying power of this instrument, well they wouldn’t of course. But they do hope your too stupid to fugure out this small defection contradiction in terms.

        Simply put, outside of a handful, most folks here all talk a good game of BS about gold this, and silver that, but they don’t walk the walk. They talk the talk in-order to have a club to associate with that likes to use gold and silver to accumulate paper dollars through the paper mining shares and other assorted paper schemes.

        The moral high ground used as a bully pulpit in this PM sector was put to bed a number of years ago in my opinion. I’ve simply lost interest with the nonsense.

        The truth is 90 percent of the folks here are trying desperately to get all of the paper dollars they can get their grubby little hands on all the while scolding strong dollar advocates as fools and morons for not believing baseless shallow view points that the dollar is dead and the world is ending. I agree that that dollars day are numbered longer term, but I’m sure as hell not cheering for it to happen.

        Personally I hope the dollar remains viable and strong for many years if not decades to come because even though I’m an outcast gold bug I still cherish the reality that I can still spend dollars on the street while I’m am also insanely grateful for having the opportunity of vast holdings of physical PM as it provides me the comfort of knowing I own am asset that is recognized for the last man standing insurance it provides me and my family.

        Having said that, unlike the one trick PM gloom and doomers enclave I still want as many dollars as I can get my hands on and I openly admit it.

        Bellyaching that the dollar is not falling fast enough so you can make a profit on your gold mining instruments is just low-grade entertainment that offers zero value in the real world. I’m not buying what many of you are selling!

        V

          Sep 22, 2015 22:55 PM

          I don’t know who exactly you’re talking about, Vortex, but I do walk the walk. The gains I get from the miners, or any asset for that matter, spend little time in any currency. Aside from living expenses, I have no reason to hold much cash besides gold. And when it’s not time to add to gold, it’s because a better risk/reward exists in another asset class.

          I do not “bellyache” about the dollar not falling fast enough or gold not rising fast enough and also hope that gold rises slowly so that gains in other investments will be worth more in real terms. Do not confuse ones conclusions about what they expect to happen with what they WANT to happen.

          It does not matter if “…a good 70-90 percent don’t give two s**t about buying, owning and holding physical gold and silver…”
          I’d guess that 99% didn’t give two shits about buying when it went from $250 to $1923. The last thing you want is to find yourself on the same side and of the same opinion as everyone else.

          If advocating for sound money makes one a “doom and gloomer,” then I think “delusional, ignorant and unprincipled” is a reasonable label for defenders and proponents of Marxist debt paper.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:00 PM

            Since a lot of people have a lot of silly notions about reality, let’s use “totalitarian” instead of “Marxist.”

            bb
            Sep 23, 2015 23:39 AM

            ‘then I think “delusional, ignorant and unprincipled” is a reasonable label for defenders and proponents of Marxist debt pape’
            I figure anyone using frn promots their use. Really no choice is there? You could try using gold, good luck with that, maybe bitcoin.

            Sep 23, 2015 23:49 AM

            Re: “I figure anyone using frn promots their use.”

            That’s completely unreasonable and illogical.

            Sep 23, 2015 23:02 AM

            Mathew, I know I will be ridiculed at bad time in gold, just like when I called people to sell silver and gold at high and move to other investment for a while. It is human nature. For me, gold/silver is not insurance against end of world. It is hedge against inflation which is as sure as night and day as all governments print money without limit. The system stress will make the printing worse. It is why it is going exponential now because the system want to correct and the correction is not allowed. The major central banks will issue money in turn to make sure there is a lot of liquidity.

            Sep 23, 2015 23:49 PM

            I agree Lawrence.

          Sep 23, 2015 23:50 AM

          V your comments are wasted here with this group, its like owning fire insurance on your home and you HOPE/PREY it burns down, yes own fire insurance but hope/prey you never need it, ever! in the mean time get on with your life

            Sep 23, 2015 23:16 AM

            Nonsense JJ. Like I said in the comment above, I hope gold rises slowly. I don’t hope/prAy for anything.
            Vortex doesn’t need your “expertise” to decide if his comments here are wasted or not.

            Sep 23, 2015 23:42 AM

            ditto dottooo

            Sep 23, 2015 23:41 AM

            Matt why do you think everyone is talking to you, I know why it is but why do you? Of course V needs your comment to verify its worthy or not, man your EGO IS BIGGER THAN ANYONE I’VE EVER SEEN ON THE WEB…..BY FAR!!!!!

      Sep 22, 2015 22:05 AM

      Certainly for the time being, Tom.

    Sep 22, 2015 22:42 AM

    TUESDAY has been a lousy day for the metals for over a year……Friday is the day….jmho

    Ken
    Sep 22, 2015 22:56 AM

    The dollar is the ONLY! safe haven to most people. As China, Europe, Africa collapse smart money will runt o the US. Why is this hard to understand?

    If you were going to lose everything in your country due to currency collapse why wouldn’t you run to safety. Bear market int eh dollar? Not a chance.

    The dollar is going from .96 to 1,23…..

      Sep 22, 2015 22:00 AM

      Great logic Ken.

        Sep 22, 2015 22:06 AM

        LOGICAL race to the bottom…………….last man standing ……GOLD.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:35 AM

          +1
          An empty promise can’t be a safe haven and the dollar is an IOU nothing. What has more utility; your shirt, or your dry cleaners ticket for a shirt?
          FDR revalued the dollar lower not gold higher. Nixon did the same as did Greenspan and friends.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:37 AM

          Yes. People who are bullish on $ because of capital flight should realize that is it purely financial and the trend will reverse. The world are not going to evaporate like most people think and when the dust settles, people suddenly realize they have missed opportunities. Then the money fly back as quickly as it comes in. The US dollar have to be soldd to purchase local currency. This was what happened in 1997 as Hong Kong returned to China. A lot of people just lost huge amount of money since they thought Hong Kong would turn into communism. They moved the money out at loss and new riches were created back to where the vacated.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:45 PM

            Are you sure that, “the world is not going to evaporate?

            Sep 22, 2015 22:17 PM

            Off course not. How many times the end of world theory have come and go?

    Sep 22, 2015 22:06 AM

    Gotta love all the dollar bulls coming out like cockroaches after a large upswing and commodities selling off….

      Sep 22, 2015 22:13 AM

      +1 lol!

        Sep 22, 2015 22:21 AM

        DITTO 2

          Sep 22, 2015 22:28 AM

          ditto, ditto, cockroaches are fantastic traders, follow their trend and make $$$$$$

      bb
      Sep 22, 2015 22:03 PM

      Why wouldnt dollar bulls come out when the dollar moves up? Watch the goldbulls when gold goes up.
      People are people.

        bb
        Sep 22, 2015 22:06 PM

        I forgot, lol,+1,ditto.

        One more lol.

        A Listener, about time for a sensible analyse no?
        Then again, diddly is happening.

          Sep 22, 2015 22:19 PM

          I think gold is going up very soon (if that helps). After today’s carnage the damage to gold was fairly minimal and I am pretty much in Ricks camp here (so I bought miners). And don’t tell Matthew I said so but silver should get a good bounce back tomorrow if my crystal ball is working.

            bb
            Sep 22, 2015 22:31 PM

            Interesting, Listener, personally I have the shares I want for the time being. (profitable,pay dividends)
            Might add more Dec or after.
            I kinda like Docs thinking.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:19 PM

            Here is the thing bb, we broke down from those bear pennants that had formed across the equity indices these past two weeks and now we are looking for a test of the recent lows on the S&P.

            Money has run into bonds and dollars as usual and hopefully that explains why both have risen sharply these past few days even as our screens turned bloody red. The action there was actually the tip-off that the pennants would break down, not up so we were warned in advance if we had been listening.

            Gold did catch a bid in my view although this is best expressed as it not getting creamed like silver and copper. It held fairly steady despite a few dollars decline and should catch a bid today or tomorrow despite the continuation of declines in the averages back to recent support.

            That means in short the markets fall is not over but it remains to be seen if we break through the August lows or bounce back and head to new highs. 15,500 on the Dow sure looks like a good stopping point to me before buying comes back in again.

            And then we head higher again. I feel this will all end as a mere correction and have discarded the idea (for the moment anyway) an all out bear market has arrived. But only time will tell so its one step at a time right now.

            Sep 22, 2015 22:43 PM

            For what its worth bb, the dollar is telling us it could rise all the way back to the high 97’s……just shy of 98 and still remain within its falling trendline. But that also warns that markets could be falling most of this month. Likewise, the 30 year should be a good trade right up to recent resistance at the August peak (in my opinion only of course).

            If that basic scenario plays out then the current trade remains long bonds, the dollar and short the S&P. I am also going long the miners via an ETF as a contrarian bet (and with luck I won’t get my arse kicked!) but I still side with Doc here that gold has NOT seen its final bottom. For now its just a tradeable rally coming back in play.

            Crude meanwhile (and the Yen) are both posting pennants just as the equity indices did up until yesterday and could break at anytime. I lean to the bearish side for WTI and see it falling back to 38 in the near future.

            I would not be long crude at this stage.

    Sep 22, 2015 22:17 AM

    what if theres a surprise rate increase…?

      Sep 22, 2015 22:19 AM

      It will not be a surprise, because everyone has been expecting it for YEARS…..

    Sep 22, 2015 22:18 AM

    Panic Indicator…. just went VERTICAL…………..zerohedge

    Sep 22, 2015 22:34 AM

    LPG posted the first notice of this.
    “Doomsday” Cometh For Glencore: Mining Giant’s Default Risk Just Exploded Higher
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2015 – 11:35
    Today’s Glencore implosion is a far greater risk to the capital markets and the global economy than Volkswagen: a few executive resignations, a few bribes to US Congress, and the scandal will be promptly snuffed. For Glencore, however, which suddenly the entire world realizes is – as we said in March 2014 – the way to trade China, it may now be too late.

      Sep 22, 2015 22:48 AM

      Base metals have been ruthlessly over produced and miners used to make insane profit. In early 2000, the production cost of copper was 60 cents and the price went to 6 dollars. As a result, many mines were started at wrong time. It will be years before the price drop way below the mining cost and kill most of the miners. It will be bloody.

      However, this is not the case for precious metals. Gold is nearly flat and silver was growing only modestly most due to by-product from base metal mines. The death of base metal miners in a way reduces the silver and gold production. The production of silver peaked in 2013 and is going down fast. Gold production is also starting to decline.

      http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/shocking-chart-silver-supply-crunch-continues-14888

    Sep 22, 2015 22:09 PM

    Gold & The Dow: Options Expiry Day

    Stewart Thomson
    email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
    email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
    email: stewart@gutrader.com

    Sep 22, 2015

    As I write this update, US stock markets have already given up all of yesterday’s gains this morning. To make an already-bad situation worse, “Quadruple Witching Hour” occurs on Friday.

    Individual stock options, stock futures, stock indexes and stock index futures all expire then, and this expiry could ignite a new wave of panic selling.

    Please click here now. The volume on this daily chart of the Dow is very bearish. It’s surging on declines, while drying up on rallies.

    For a closer look at this morning’s action, please click here now. That’s the hourly bars chart, using December futures. There’s a head and shoulders top pattern in play.

    The Fed’s QE program fostered the growth of government size and power, while causing banks to hoard capital, rather than loaning it out to businesses.

    QE also caused US companies to borrow money and engage in stock buybacks. This created phoney PE ratios, and made the market look less overvalued than it was, and is.

    With low rates, banks have no incentive to make loans, and government has massive incentive to borrow money and expand itself. The bottom line: The stock market and the government are not the US economy, but QE and low rates make it appear that they are.

    In my professional opinion, the Western gold community needs to stop cheering for deflationary QE and deflationary rate cuts, and start thanking Janet Yellen for her taper, and for her upcoming rate hikes.

    Those rate hikes will increase money supply velocity, cause inflation, and significantly boost gold prices.

    Please click here now. UBS bank economists just presented a highly rational view of gold to their clients. Their statements feel “solid”, and that’s appealing to institutional investors.

    UBS bank can move significant client risk capital with their research reports, and this one is great news for gold price enthusiasts around the world.

    Also, I expect the new and fully transparent PBOC gold buy program to become a “game changer” for most gold market fundamentalists in the coming months. When bank economists begin focusing on the PBOC buying, that will bring even more institutional money into gold.

    Please click here now. Gold stocks tend to lead gold, and this daily chart suggests that GDX is poised to leap upwards, above a key downtrend line.

    A GDX breakout would likely usher in an acceleration of the current gold market rally, and my key 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator suggests that the breakout will happen.

    When will it happen? For the possible answer, please click here now. The next COMEX gold option expiry date is Thursday.

    Gold has a tendency to lose upside momentum in front of expiry days, and then rally after the options expire.

    Please click here now. That’s the daily chart for gold. While the technical picture looks solid, a decline to the minor support zone at $1115 – $1125 ahead of options expiry day is likely.

    From there, I expect the US dollar to run into serious trouble against the yen, and create a surge of FOREX liquidity into both the yen and gold.

    On that note, please click here now. That’s the daily chart of the dollar versus the yen. The uptrend line is broken, my Stochastics oscillator is verging on a sell signal, and there’s a nasty symmetrical triangle pattern in play. The implications for the dollar are clearly bearish, and that’s good news for gold.

    Janet Yellen spoke several months ago about the “waning effects” of the rising dollar, and my technical analysis suggests her outlook was very timely.

    For another look at that key dollar versus yen chart, please click here now. There’s a double top pattern in play, with major implications for downside price action in the dollar.

    Please click here now. President Xi Jinping looks and acts like a “Golden Terminator”, and I want to remind the Western gold community that a large part of his reform include the internationalization of the yuan.

    On that note, please click here now. This key policy paper from PBOC official Dr. Yao Yudong is arguably the most important paper published about central banking and gold in decades. Gold is clearly going to play a very transparent and official role in the reformation of China’s currency, and ultimately in the entire global financial system.

    Like an arrow shot by a “bull era” archer, Dr. Yudong’s roadmap for gold and the yuan can’t be taken back. Both China and India want to see global gold price discovery less pinned to things like Thursday’s COMEX option expiry, and more to gold jewellery demand versus mine supply. They’re taking the steps to make this “reformation” of the world’s ultimate asset a wonderful reality. Good times await the Western gold community in the coming years, and the dollar versus yen chart suggests the good times may begin… in just a few days!
    Sep 22, 2015
    Stewart Thomson
    Graceland Updates

      Sep 22, 2015 22:35 PM

      Where is MARK……..THE OPTION EXPIRY GUY…………..

      Sep 22, 2015 22:49 PM

      Thanks Agatha. In reading Stewarts work I have come to the conclusion he got almost all of it wrong last week. The Yen the dollar, gold….the works. Anyone who followed that setup got screwed if they put it in play. I really don’t understand why Matthew worships the guy. But hey, its his coin not mine so I really don’t care.

        Sep 23, 2015 23:09 AM

        Just proves you don’t comprehend what Stewart writes. He doesn’t throw out little targets for the week ahead, he talks about the bigger picture.

        And this is yet another example of how you keep things negative around here. Pay attention BB. Is it productive or anything but an insult to accuse me of worshiping someone while (wrongly) claiming that person was wrong? Of course not.

          Sep 23, 2015 23:52 AM

          Did you not accuse jj of hero worship with regard to Martin Armstrong? That was just a few days back. So the pot is calling the kettle black now? Hmmmm?

          Anyway, getting back to the real world, that was a terrible call by your idol. No wonder you are in a bad mood since you probably are a bag holder after taking his advice. Short a lot of dollars I heard. Tough break man. The leverage will ruin you.

            bb
            Sep 23, 2015 23:17 AM

            How do you drag me into this Mathew?
            Doesnt matter tho.
            Guess Mr Thompson is another thing we agree on Listener, altho interesting reads I havnt found Stewarts professional opinion to be entirely accurate. Not that anyone is I guess.

            I really like his trading method, honustly cant see how it could lose.

            But as for his “India will change everything” etc he might be more accurate just to say “in the long run,gold will do what it always has”.

            Sep 23, 2015 23:37 AM

            I dragged you into it because you claimed I’m the worst re: insults. You don’t see how one little insult leads to another and it always begins with “listener” (or JJ).

            bb
            Sep 23, 2015 23:16 AM

            Not how I have seen it.
            Makes absolutely zero difference one way or another.
            This insult stuff is just “kids stuff” as far as I am concerned.

            Can be funny as heck at times tho.

    Sep 22, 2015 22:11 PM

    my closed end bond funds [which make up 20% of my investments are slowly moving up . But most of my bond funds are below where i bought in. . enjoying the dividends however. S

    Sep 22, 2015 22:51 PM

    VW fraudulent emissions software had a significant impact on the Euro markets and in turn our markets along with some articles in the Financial Times.
    http://autoweek.com/article/car-news/vw-accused-using-software-482000-diesels-skirt-us-clean-air-rules?utm_source=DailyDrive20150921&utm_medium=enewsletter&utm_term=headline-top&utm_content=body&utm_campaign=awdailydrive