Are investors losing faith in the markets?
Gary starts off today with comments on the conventional markets and gold. Investors seems to be bearish on both of these markets… but is that bad in the long -run?
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Christmas in September!
balls of holly………or great ball of fire………….
forgot the “s”..
a bunker buster…..?
or if he can gets the pope to stand under the mistletoe , he can get a kiss……….
that dang “s”….is back….get be hind me “s”…
We all better “hope the pope” doesn’t declare (dirty) gold mining evil.
He would never do that, what if the dome in Rome needs repair……
At least somebody knows whats going on
The youth of the world, I have no interest in being 21 again
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37321
Marty:Therefore, I fully agree with Jefferson. You are burdened and your future has been predetermined for you are being taxed without any choice in the matter. You have been stripped of all your rights and your future has been stolen by socialists who wanted to live well by robbing you of your freedom and capacity to determine your own future. For this, you must become politically active. Taxation is evil, and we no longer need taxation since money is no longer a commodity. Money is purely representational dependent upon faith and confidence. Government should not be allowed to borrow, for money should be created for its expense limited to a percent of GDP that cannot be increased except in time of war if ATTACKED – not like a 100 years war to justify taxation.
Martin said plenty that I agree with like “…government destroys the economy and shrinks it, no matter what they pretend.”
But then he says this:
“As for those who write in, asking which investment will be safe — the answer is NONE.”
and this:
“There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.”
Which is complete bullsh!t. Gold did just fine and the gold miners did spectacularly.
Here’s a great piece by Al’s friend Jay Taylor:
Gold Stocks Were Financial Saviors During The 1930s
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-stocks-were-financial-saviors-during-1930s
If you want to learn from a market historian, try Bob Hoye. Martin probably knows what he does but Hoye will tell you the truth.
psssst give yah a clue Matty, Armstrong and I could careless what you think, wink, wink, lol
No he doesn’t but his silly blind sheep would do well to at least question their messiah.
Are you denying that the miners did fantastically in the 1930s? If so, why not prove it rather than dishing out yet another useless pathetic remark?
Evil requires JJ’s brand of ignorance in order to thrive.
Matt your so hung up on every word its like you trade using a 10second chart its a broad comment telling the average investor NOTHING will be saved from whats coming if in fact it does, you really need to get a life man!
Your so up tight you take everything so literally ..word for word OMG… especially any Armstrong comments…WHO CARES IN THE BIG PICTURE….NOBODY!! so breathe, relax, walk your dog and don’t work yourselve up over Marty you’ll feel a lot better…..
I’m not hung up on anything and his comments were precise, not broad.
“There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.” That is a bold and dead wrong statement.
By not investing, you actually invest in the paper government creates. If they are so bad, why trust some thing they can create at will. This is confusing to me. I like Martin but sometimes I am tortured with logical twists between the facts and conclusions he presents. I may have to block my thought process and just follow regardless what.
Matthew, you are misreading what Armstrong wrote.
He also said that stocks and commodities bottomed and then rose together (which is correct) so you are mixing time frames. You already know well that gold and miners did NOT perform until AFTER the acts of 1932 and that they only did so because of confiscation.
So during the time period Martin refers to it is a FACT that stocks had already crashed, that commodities were at a bottom and that bonds had hit the skids. The world at that time (between 1928 and 1933) had seen a massive period of wealth destruction on every front.
We were in the midst of a sovereign debt crisis. Real estate, auto and farm values all plummeted. Virtually no asset was spared. Not even your precious gold. Only cash and Treasuries had validity for the average investor who was unprepared for the swiftly moving events of the day.
It was a world in 33 that was entirely unrecognizable to anyone who only knew the better times that had existed pre 29 and most people lost money. Some lost it all including their lives. Gold miners did NOT start to take off until a floor was put under price due to the revaluation following confiscation.
At that time the US government was buying every ounce of gold that producers could deliver and they were doing so in an environment where input and labour costs had been badly depressed. Gold stocks soared as a result and earnings shot skyward.
In short, the only reason gold miners were a good bet in 1933 was because profitability was excellent due to government policy interventions in the gold market. Without a similar act today do you really think gold would be such a great investment?
Unless we get a revaluation or confiscation gold is just another commodity.
Very sorry pal….but those are the facts.
A.L. Very good points. Well thought of.
Thank you very much Lawrence. I appreciate that compliment coming from you.
Leave it to you to buy into the bs. What Martin neglected to tell you is that stocks were decimated in gold terms even if they did bottom at the same time. Yet, he says:
“There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING”
It’s an absurd statement. Gold did not collapse in terms of any asset. NONE.
So sorry “pal” but I can’t thank you for playing and do not hope you’ll try again. 🙁 🙂
Re: “Virtually no asset was spared. Not even your precious gold.”
Wrong.
Re: “In short, the only reason gold miners were a good bet in 1933 was because profitability was excellent due to government policy interventions in the gold market.”
Also wrong. The real rice of gold goes up in a credit contraction just as it has in the last 12 months.
A.L. One thing I need to point out is that Martin does not consider gold has bottomed. He feel there is a lower price to come and it is not the time to invest in gold yet. His forecast for oil is even gloomier, at $12-15. That price will bankrupt all producers without exception, unless it is very short.
Lawrence, everything in listeners comment refers to the 1920s and ’30s.
Lawrence, you nailed it perfectly with this comment above: “By not investing, you actually invest in the paper government creates. If they are so bad, why trust some thing they can create at will. This is confusing to me. I like Martin but sometimes I am tortured with logical twists between the facts and conclusions he presents.”
Matt, I mean his analysis for the 30 is pretty good.
My phone removed “s”, 30s.
Matthew….wake up! Gold was fixed back then. This is not the same as today where you can say it did such and such priced in stocks or homes because the dollar WAS gold. Sheesh man, don’t you even know what that devaluation was about? It was a forced move off a fixed price. You sound like a real fool these last few days.
You should quit while you’re behind buddy. Gold did its job and that’s a historical FACT. The price of the dollar was fixed to gold and that’s why it was runner-up; a distant runner-up but still number two.
Your comment is just as nonsensical to this discussion as Armstrong’s claim that “no single investment was left standing.” How can everything be down, Martin? And compared to what was gold down? The dollar? NOPE.
Quit is right. You are obsessed. No way can a guy like you learn.
Gary’s SPX chart
did logic just fly out the window? if the FED is propping up the markets, and they have a printing press, why would there ever be a crash? why would “everyone run for the exits at once”? it’s either the Fed propping up the markets and they have unlimited resources, there SHOULD NEVER BE A CRASH.
Well said jon. It is improbable that the Fed could manage or manipulate a market as large as the one that exists in the US, never mind actually controlling global prices for the majority of commodities (of which gold is but one). The manipulation theory is pure bunk just based on simple reasoning.
Anyone know any silver or gold miners management team that protected shareholders value and hedge their production at higher prices, heck looking back hedging into $45+ and $1900+ would have been a fantastic approach but how about as $40-$30-$25-$20 silver did any miner lock in gains for their shareholders….these management teams that are lead by so many nice guys are any leading edge regarding the value trends of what they mine or are they complete idiots always suggesting the bottom is in??????
Big Al maybe you can put this question to all you buddy’s who run producing mines, why no hedging?
I already asked that question several times jj. They won’t touch it with a ten foot pole because virtually none of the miners hedged and it is a huge embarrassment to the industry (note the advertisers here for an answer as to why this is not being discussed). In fact, many larger companies bought out their hedge books in anticipation of higher prices prior to 2011 ……just in time for gold to take a big fat face plant. And few took steps to protect themselves even as the declines became obvious.
Go figure eh? They demonstrate herding behavior same as most people do.
JJ, I think I recall one some years back, forget who tho. I remember alot of gold companies buyng out their hedge position as well.
Kevin OLeary has said he will never own a PM mining share, he figures they are the worst managers on the planet.
When compared to other companies in other industries he has a point.
Even the ones that are not outright criminal or mining shareholders etc we have to wonder about.
People interested in mining shares continually compare management to their peers, other mining companies, sometimes they say “good management” well, compared to peers maybe but not compared to other business managers from other industries.
Mining shares are loaded with risk, and with risk/reward valuation many times there is just plain no point. Even when management is legitimate, “Do the math”.
On the other hand, a raging bull can make you good money Go figure
I figure sub par management should be a givin, like, the mine could collapse or the vien could just end, that one is funny, all that expertise,all that profesional dilling, samples surveys, 20 year mine life, experts writing articles and they are always surprised the vein just stops. lol
It is just plain high risk stuff. The “gurus” far from mention that to the unsuspecting enough if you ask me, maybe they avoid the topic, Dont blame them I guess, might scare away investors.
bb, your correct as Barrick had a massive hedge that had to be unwound which shot gold over $1000 or maybe it was $1200 and never looked back, but that’s hedging in a bull market and Jim Sinclair warned them it would cost them dearly….but we have had big, big % drops in gold and silvers value yet no management team protected their shareholders by selling forward at locked in higher rates WHY?????
I would be please as punch if MAG silver has sold future production at $25 silver and the share value would be richly rewarded.
NOT ONLY did the silver and gold gurus let down the goldbugs BUT so did management in a BIG way of these so called expert management teams of nice guys!
Actually, an excellent point, JJ.
Brian, I know the standard answer from management will be 20/20 hindsight but really, you guys are the experts who mine pm’s metals are you telling shareholders you are clueless to the supply/demand/global economics effecting ALL commodities, isn’t your job to create shareholder value, just as they take big hits with currency losses what you can’t hedge by getting expert advice in currency values going forward.
JJ,
If you look back thru time then you’ll be surprised about how many Aussie listed companies have hedged production…many have been notorious for it.
The biggest problem is they haven’t always done it at the right time though.
I’ve seen them hedge against the price of gold yet still get it wrong due to currency fluctuations.
Sometimes they’ve won….other times they’ve held back the share price by doing so.
Hedging is a double edged sword sometimes.
….maybe they should give Marty a call before doing so !
Cheers.
Why didnt they lock in prices? You could ask Ed Steer, he wont own a mining share either. lol He actually had some pretty good info.
bb, the whole lot from mining exec’s to the so called pm’s guru’s have completely failed the gold silver bull investors BIG TIME!
Agree. Most are morons.
Completely agree bb.
Gold and silver up but the miners are NOT participating. Here we go again. Gary, your gold cycle trends are certainly being challenged. Appears that Doc’s theory on gold moving sideways to down is in the cards……………..at least, until tomorrow.
Following DOC, I think I am going to wait until tax-selling season to do anything at this point. I have my core positions in my favorite pure-Canadian miners (Alexco, Claude, Kirland Lake, Pretium) and gold/silver (PSLV, OUNZ). I will wait until December to add core positions in Lakeshore, Richmont, and maybe Rubicon. For outside-of-Canada, maybe Klondex and Americas Silver.
I do respect Gary’s views VERY MUCH, but the daily gyrations are driving me crazy and. more importantly, I know my trading limitations – just not able to make cash positive trades (I am horrible at selling for a profit; I just hang on too long and the volatility wipes out my gains)
Brian
Why not buy metal itself and forget miners.
Probably ego and greed: I have spent 100’s hours over the past 8 years researching and investing in miners. I would feel AWFUL, if I missed out on the leveraged profits from the (hopeful) future bull market in PM miners from 2016-2020
You’re to humble to say it, so I will: how about putting knowledge in first place. You will be very well rewarded, Brian, and I think you’re as confident about that as I am.
The bearishness across the entire sector is simply not rational. Business is business regardless of the sector and there are some real steals out there.
Matt, I think the governments will just keep the price suppressed and make sure there is enough metal produced in addition to official sector off load. As a result, the balance sheet of miners will be terrible even as price of gold rises. The stock will oscillate as for the last few decades but never go anywhere. I suspect Barrick can give us a good hint. Gold/HUI will keep going up. Just my 2 cents.
Matthew
Agree with your statements (and thanks for the kind words …)
“The bearishness across the entire sector is simply not rational. Business is business regardless of the sector and there are some real steals out there.”
DGHH….did you see what happened yesterday? Our screens were bathed in bloody red. Dollar and the 30 year were up but stocks down across the board.
Gold itself held on fairly respectably considering the carnage but shares got sold down hard along with most stocks and that included miners. Par for the course on a day like that.
You need to separate the ideas of the commodity itself from the shares that trade as its proxy. Gold is not equal to Gold miners and miners are not gold at such times so the two will separate and this should not be a surprise.
I reason that gold’s fair showing yesterday does in fact indicate it was acting as a safe haven if you compare its behavior to that of copper or silver which were both brutalized.
That idea was reinforced more today when gold rose.
The reason is that the bear flag on equities (technical) has now broken down and by all indications we have more declines ahead for US and European stock markets. That is in fact exactly my expectation for tonight and tomorrow as the rout continues.
Gold meanwhile looks like it is ready for a move higher although I hold out less hope for the miners themselves. Just my three cents.
Crazy Silver premiums:
APMEX: 2015 Maple / 25 coin tube – premium = 37% (NOT the credit card price)
that would be about right……….silver WAY UNDER PRICED………
I am not selling mine.
Gary throws in the towel. I wonder if miners will rally now?
of course, he’s a fade because when his cycle count doesn’t work its due to manipulation
to be fair back in Aug it was the manipulation excuse, didn’t use that as a reason with the latest pop/drop in the miners
I disagree guys. Gary is not wrong….he is just a little early.
EX……….DID YOU GET MY MESSAGE on Great Panther ?
gary never threw in any towel… and he’s the opposite of any fade…
+1
Silver premiums In Europe are about 20% for Maple Leaf, very strange premiums are so high in the US.
Looking for a Yen move tomorrow. Could be large.
As I stated Monday Japans CPI data is released Thurs, if its weak moar QE will be the desire effecting the value of gold and the s&p500
You got your wish (kind of) as Abe Unveils his Target to Boost Japan’s Economy to 600 Trillion Yen…..and then the Yen rose. Go figure eh? But who knows. Maybe it was the poor showing in their PMI numbers. Whatever the case….gold is a go if this continues.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-24/abe-unveils-target-to-boost-japan-s-economy-to-600-trillion-yen
Who in God’s name is Birdman? I see he posted about forty posts up…
Very careless!!!!!
Will you vote for Bird’s return? Maybe he will migrate back here.
Expect a bloody day in US equity markets. Wee need to see a double bottom this week if markets are to rise Monday. And by the looks of it that is exactly what is in the cards. Janet Yellen speaks later this evening and all ears will be tuned in to hear what she has to say and whether she gives any indication of a move towards rate normalization.
For now…..its short the S&P for me…..today and tomorrow.
Watch for a double top to form on the 30 year chart in the coming weeks. This (in my view) is a good bet and so its how I will position. I strongly doubt that we exceed the highs of mid August.
Ricks target from email yesterday?day before? was 1164 maybe higher.
Well, he called “the move” if not price, which he still could.
I dont care what a person calls themselves, its what they say that counts,Having already used “heathen” I was going to go with “heritic” but my favorite guy got banned again.
321 gold has a book “The Coming Renewal of Gold Secular Bull Market” by Jordan Roy _Byrne Maybe people already know the info about gold/yields/real rates etc but I found it pretty good.
Gold up , the Pope is in town, and all is good………………….