I agree with Al’s comments on the great job Gary is doing. Gary has an objective and clear perspective of these difficult markets that we are in.

Today is a bit surprising to me. I can’t believe the Fed still has any credibility. After yapping for years about raising rates, the shysters at the Fed still have power over the markets with mere words.

Honestly, I have no idea when this ends, but it will end badly. I am back in the camp that the bankers will do anything and everything to prop up targeted asset classes while letting commodities crash and burn.

Again, just disgusted that the market attaches any credibility to the Fed still. Mind blowing.

Spank, never fear fear is here! We gonna retest the lows of 2008/9. Get ready! Gonna be a “short” ride down and a bucking bull ride back up!

I called the S&P about an hour before she tanked. As soon as I saw the mack cross I was like down we gooooooooooo!

Gold and miners (HUI) at high for the day at 3;30 EST. Could end the day unchanged if the trend continues. Keep those fingers crossed!

“Confessions of a horse handicapper Part 2”

Or “How I Iearned to stop worrying and love interest rate hikes”

In part 1 of this series I discussed the difference between VALUE and EDGE and sentiment and fundamentals. The conclusion was professionals always look for value.

In this part I would like to dig deeper into the future projections regarding gold and the economy.

Anyone who participated in the historic bull run in gold and silver from 1999 to 2011 knows it was a wild ride, a once in a lifetime opportunity where fortunes were made.

They also know the last 4 years have been brutal for anyone who stayed in or went in gold and especially silver. It was carnage.

This was NOT a cyclical bear market in a secular bull market.
It was (IS) a bear market, period.

What did we learn?
Where are we now?
Where are we going?

What did we learn?

I think the main thing we learned is gold and silver are TRADES, they are not investments.

They are spec plays pure and simple.

You are speculating on a price direction. You are not getting interest, you are not getting dividends, you are not getting tax breaks.

You are simply betting on the direction of a price.

This is not long term investing for wealth appreciation.

I repeat it is simply a spec trade.

You but gold and silver HOPING it goes up. Hope and patience IS NOT an investment strategy.

Let’s be clear about this. The last 4 years have proven, BEYOND ANY DEBATE, gold and silver are not investments, they are not insurance, they are not safe havens.

It’s a spec trade, nothing else.

You buy gold, throw it in a closet or bury it in a backyard, or pay storage fees and hope someday people go lulu over gold and it goes up. I paint an accurate picture.

Please don’t misconstrue my words now.

I have nothing against speculating. I MADE A FORTUNE SPECULATING.

I just want to be clear and call it what it is.

Now as far as gold as a speculation play, I think there are a lot of better opportunities for speculating in other assets/wagers/enterprises…

Where are we now?

Some “PUNDITS” think we are at, or near the bottom in gold.
Others feel there may be one more downturn.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS NO ONE KNOWS.

You can make a case that we bottomed, and just as easily you can make a case we are now in a new lower range where $1200 is now STRONG RESISTANCE.

Right now the gold market has been hijacked.

It has been cornered, crushed and controlled. AGAIN I PAINT AN ACCURATE PICTURE.

Some people might advocate it is a good time to start accumulating, my only question is accumulating what? A long term store and facilitator of wealth, or a pet rock you have to pay to dust off now and then? THIS IS A REASONABLE QUESTION.

I also feel right now there is a sense of pessimism that permeates the entire culture.
It is hard to put your finger on, but it is like we never really recovered from the World Trade Center, and the GREAT RECESSION/CREDIT CRISIS.

There is a sense of hopelessness, victimization, entitlement, discouragement and divisiveness that is always and everywhere all around us.

I think this plays a large part and influences our investment decisions and pre conceived biases.

Always remember a pre conceived bias or perspective can kill your bankroll.

No one sees our investments the way we do. Keep that in mind!

I think there are some people that are exploiting this fear for personal gain.

I also feel this fear had a great deal to do with the run up in gold and silver.

I also think many people are understandable confused.

We are living in unprecedented monetary and economic times and many investors are justifiably puzzled. Many people are making money in spite of this.

Again, just like in part 1 of this series, I am not here to tell you what you should do, I am only brining to light certain facts regarding the gold and silver markets.

I said in part 1 and it bears repeating.

MORE IMPORTANT THAN KNOWING IF WE BOTTOMED IS KNOWING WHERE WE ARE GOING

So where are we going?

Bottom line is all bets are off.

It’s all about Janet and Rates

What fascinates me is the fact that there are still people out there who don’t think this whole entire market hinges on even a 1/4 point rate hike.

Some people still believe it’s not about rates.

IT IS ALL ABOUT RATES

DIDNT I SAY THAT BACK IN DECEMBER?

Let’s look at this just this past week.

Many so called experts were predicting a September rate hike.

80% were betting on a September rate hike.

The spin masters had to work overtime pivoting from rate hikes will crush the market to rate hikes are good for the market, the story line being it will show the FED has confidence.

This is all complete bs of course.

Once Janet couldn’t pull the trigger and showed no confidence markets started to come down hard.

The new mentality being even all this cheap money won’t save us if things are going to pot.

Janet had to come out a week later and do damage control.

Right on queue she said she is expecting a rate hike before the year.

The markets loved it.

Now they learned to stop worrying and love interest rate hikes!

These markets turn on a dime from one day to the next depending on the probability of a rate hike and if it’s perceived good or bad.

It is mind boggling to me that some people still don’t think it isn’t all about interest rates.

So will they or won’t they?

Don’t know.

I but I do know the end of the year will be here soon enough and then we will know.

If they don’t raise stocks can still climb
If they do raise stocks can still climb

Gold is at the mercy of it all.

Not only is $1200 now strong resistance but even $1170 is resistance.

I will repeat what I said earlier – I don’t care if gold has bottomed.

It’s more important to know where it’s going.

And it might not be going anywhere very slowly.

People on average have a 30 year investing life, roughly from 20 to 50

Yes people will be investing beyond 50, but by then you want to have your nest egg.

So assuming the average person has an investment window of 20 to 50 you need to be on the right side of a market because a bull or a bear could last for many years.

Look at gold. For 12 years we had a bull market in gold. That is almost half an investors investment life.

If we now have 12 years of a bear (entirely possible) if you are on the wrong side of that half your investment window is done, and the other half would need to be a bull just to hope to get even.

If you are just starting out in gold you need to seriously consider this.

If you are 20 and gold needs 10 to 15 years to bottom and base, half your investment window will be wasted.

If you are 30, 40 or 50 you’re toast

People will strongly disagree saying we won’t need 10 to 15 years.

Really?

Look at the past and see how long theses cycles can take.

If we had 12 up years we can easily have 12 down years.

I would recommend to anyone don’t bother with gold.

Leave it to the central planners and bullion banks to kick around.

Stick to quality stocks, real estate and good businesses both private and public.

Gold and silver are not investments.
They are pure spec plays.

If you want to take a flyer on gold or silver know going in it is just a flyer.

I could save you the trouble – if you want to take flyers go to the track.

You have better odds and more fun.

I promise you Janet won’t be there.

I am hoping to put together the third and final part to this series.
It will look at gold and stocks markets from a totally different perspective.

If you missed the first part you can find it under Gary on Friday September 18th

Matthew, I don’t invest based on my feelings.

What don’t you get?

Once again you can’t connect the dots

As I think of it Matthew it is you who have been investing based on your feelings.

In the face of a four year bear market you refuse to admit you have been wrong the whole time. Instead because of your unflinching bullishness you cannot see the forest for the trees.

You need to be less subjective and more objective

Gare, biotechs lead the sell off today.

🙂

TO ALL TRADERS, INVESTORS AND SPECULATORS !!!!!!! (Caution is warranted)

The precious metals will most likely get caught in this deflationary wave that I would
rate on a scale 1 through 10. A 10, being the worst.

There are more than a billion citizens in the world that need work. Those numbers
are growing by the day. No low or bottom in the precious metals complex until next
year probably a temporary low and we could face the final low in 2017 mid year.
Rallies will only be temporary.

Investors need to stay highly alert because there certainly are going to be significant
changes as the months wear on and going into 2017 and 2018 searching for the final
bottom. Miners will go insolvent and many investors attempting to pick bottoms will
be decimated. Share prices of the large caps will be crushed.

I am short in a very large position in SPZ15 for many weeks and will continue to hold that short.

Remember, when your right all the time its who people build the mansions for. Not
for those who get it right some of the time. Precious metals are not ripe. Not for the
long term. SP short is. Many on this site are attempting to time a long term bottom in
precious metals. Its a long wait yet per above commentary. We have just started a
economic collapse. I strongly advise caution as I have stated in precious metals.

Matthew there you go again…because I am bearish that means I am not using analysis?

Just another example of your total blind bullishness