Starting off with Gary and this one should be a real comment generator!
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Could this be the beginning of a major run-up in the markets?
The miners look like they will trend higher for at least several weeks.
http://schrts.co/Gls7Pg
I just saw you post Matthew. Maybe I trimmed a bit prematurely, however I still have a handful of core positions on in the miners.
What are your thoughts on Americas Silver Corp? It hasn’t moved with the rest of the pack, but I still believe when it does move, the percentage gains will be explosive. Also I still have a position in Mandalay, and while it has rebounded some recently, it isn’t leaping forward as much as I would expect.
A penny for your thoughts on penny stocks.
Americas Silver (SPM for me) is up 25% since its late August low and was up as much as 33% on 9/18 and a few times since so it’s doing well. The nano caps and the smaller micro caps never seem to move in lockstep with GDXJ or GDX. Capital moves back and forth between the different risk profiles as gains in one get plowed into value in the others.
I like SPM a lot but would caution others to avoid it if their outlook on silver isn’t good. Money parked their could be dead (or worse) for awhile if silver can’t the 18.50 area behind it.
There not “their.” 😐
Matthew
Any news on IMPACT silver…r they OK
IPT is low on cash but they will be ok. I continue to accumulate and even picked up more today —at .15! 😮
They have no debt and would have to quadruple just to reach book value.
Btw, I have 5 times more shares than I did at the beginning of the year.
Yes, I’m holding Americas Silver (SMNPF for me) for the longer term rebound in Silver, when prices get to $18-$19 and above again, and expect it to be a multi-bagger. However, if there is one last sell down in PMs towards year end then I was going to sell out on the spike up on a counter-trend rally and then reload or add once the metals find their bottom. I guess I’ll just hang onto it and block out the short-term noise for the long-term prize.
Thanks man.
…Or at least wait for things to look toppy on the weekly chart. Then you might get away with selling out and buying back at a lower price.
Yes, that’s what I’ll be watching for on the weekly charts as a exit point before the next dip, and then will reload a little lower. Having said that, it was up over 9% today, so that didn’t hurt my feelings or anything 🙂
Americas Silver Corporation (SMNPF)
0.1385 Up 0.0117 (9.23%) 3:33PM EDT
_____________________________
My position in Yamana Gold did very well today also. I trimmed some of my position at $2.11 but it kept on chuggin’:
Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY) -NYSE
2.15 Up 0.18(9.14%) 4:01PM EDT
After Hours : 2.16 Up 0.01 (0.47%) 4:27PM EDT
True Gold Mining jumped 12% today and is up 27% since the low caused by political strife about three weeks ago. I’m glad I bought what I could into the low as it has now broken a short downtrend and taken back the 50 day ma.
With 400 million shares out, it probably won’t breeze through overhead fan line resistance very quickly, but you never know. Production is not far off and TGM will be very cheap if projections are met.
http://schrts.co/ZdU0iI
I only saw the 6% close, (but I follow the OTC ticker of RVREF).
True Gold Mining Inc. (RVREF) -Other OTC Watchlist
0.1453 Up 0.0084(6.14%) 3:56PM EDT
However, a 12% pop in the Canadian TGM is strong!
True Gold Mining Inc. (TGM.V) -TSXV
0.19 Up 0.02(12.12%) 3:59PM EDT
I appreciate the update on True Gold Mining and have been keeping my eye on it, but it is hard to watch everything and there has been a lot of action in the mining shares the last few weeks. They have an exciting near-term production story to follow (and could become a takeover story like Romarco, and I predict Golden Queen, Torex, and Balmoral will also be taken over).
Just for grins (JFG) I bought some shares in Bayhorse Silver Inc. (KXPLF). Anybody else?
I have Bayhorse on my Silver watch-list but don’t know as much about it honestly. What do you find attractive about it as an up and coming silver story?
Along those same lines – has anyone been following Hecla’s interest in Dolly Varden Silver? They just loaned them some money, own 14% of the company, and may own 19% of it once their warrants are triggered.
September 30, 2015 – Vancouver, BC: Dolly Varden Silver Corporation (TSX.V: DV | U.S.: DOLLF)
Good interview with Gary today. Thanks Big Al & Cory for all the hard work.
Today has been a blast. Trimmed back my positions in Yamana, Argonaut, Sandstorm, and Stillwater today into the strength, but I’m very happy with how they’ve performed the last 2 weeks.
Also I went long volatility with (TVIX) this morning at $9.30 and it’s off to a good start up to $9.81 at present. I may just sell out of this position towards the end of the day or if it climbs up over $10.
Good luck to all in their investing.
BTW – for anyone following the merger of Romarco with Oceana Gold, it looks like things are in process. My Romarco shares are now locked down in my trading account, so the conversion is finally taking place. I’m excited about the new combined company moving forward.
Looks like I’m no longer a Romarco shareholder and am now an Oceana Gold shareholder 🙂 That’s OK with me….up 12% today.
OceanaGold Corporation (OCANF) -Other OTC
1.68 Up 0.18(12.00%) 11:53AM EDT
“The completion of our transaction with Romarco has transformed OceanaGold into a new leader within the intermediate gold sector and the addition of the Haile gold mine enhances our existing portfolio of high margin, high quality operating assets. Our experienced development and operating professionals are looking forward to joining forces with the existing development team to bring Haile into production”, said Mick Wilkes, Managing Director & CEO of OceanaGold.
1 October 2015
OCEANAGOLD AND ROMARCO ANNOUNCE COMPLETION OF THE PLAN OF ARRANGEMENT
Oceana looks like it is doing well on the news of the merger and has held up well compared with some of its peers on this 10 company composite chart – Small Gold producers & Gold explorers:
Companies featured: Centerra Gold, Oceanagold, Dundee Precious Metals, Aurico Gold, Alacer Gold, Centamin Egypt, Guyana Goldfields, Asanko gold, NovaGold, Klondex, and Kirkland Lake. (all Canadian tickers on this one due to limits of Stockcharts).
SORRY – That was the wrong list of companies and chart on the prior message.
HERE is the correct chart:
Companies featured: Argonaut Gold, McEwen Mining, B2Gold, Rubicon Minerals, Semafo, New Gold, Harmony Gold mining, Sibanye Gold, OceanaGold, and Eldorado Gold.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?ARNGF,MUX,BTG,RBY,SEMFF,NGD,HMY,SBGL,OCANF,EGO#
Biotechs are weak today with the index down 7% right now, if they are to lead the market higher it has to do better, also oil and copper has to have bottomed for commodities in general to turn. Have we bottomed or is the bottom still ahead, the Saudi es have not giving in yet and China is not looking good for copper any time soon to rebound
Oil has broken above the 47.10 level and headed toward 50. Another 3rd great day for me. I think I have recovered half my losses of the last 5 depressing months in the past 7 days. Oil at 48.2 is now $4 above the 50 day. Biotechs are falling hard dragging the Nasdaq down sharply. I added 2000 more BP last Monday at 29.60. It hit 34.60 today. Oil is up 4.3% now.
Congrats. Yes, Oil is on the move….
XOP oil companies etf has finally broken out above $38. It has been falling from 56 and once was around 76 in 2014.
Only question I have is does the Fed have the green light for QE4 with the stock market at these levels or even higher? Does the SM need QE4 to make a higher high? I say yes.
They are already doing QE4. It won’t be public this time.
Sorry? Gary I must have missed a show or two because I am short on time lately. What kind of QE are you referring too? Do you know something that I missed out on?
If the stock market goes to new yearly highs it is almost guaranteed the fed will raise, even if they are injecting money elsewhere. I think QE4 will come in the form of national infrastructure spending.
Rick H, are you in Australia?
lol, just standing on my head, it makes some of my charts look better!
🙂
That is the funniest post I have seen on KER in MONTHS ! ! !
It’s coming to a moment of truth!
Doc and Rick are putting their chips on Red and Gary has all his chips on Black!
It gets more fun every day listening to the KE Report. It’s been about 13 years since I first heard kereport and it is the ONLY show that I have never stopped listening to for more than a very short period of time.
Just a few Curious insights.
1. Central fund od Canada is currently trading at a 10%+ discount to net asset value, virtually the same discount I bought it back in 1999-2000-2001.(near a 60/40 weighting Au/Ag.
2. A saying I’m often reminded of from David Morgan(silver-investor.com) that oftentimes, 90% of a move occurs in in a 10% timeframe, 49 months for Au reversal, 54 months for Ag.
So , are we in that 5 month window of blast off?
3. You may not agree with Jim Willie ( goldenjackass.com), but he is claiming the FED is already involved in new shadow QE to the tune of 80 billion- 300 billion / month masking over the derivative meltdown going on in the shale patch fostered by the greed of the Big 5 NY banks. Nothing new under the sun, isn’t it?
Gary: remember Soros: “Gold is the ultimate bubble.”
Of course, that phrase could be interpreted several ways.
I think he used “ultimate” to mean final or last not “the best achievable or imaginable of its kind.”
ul·ti·mate
ˈəltəmət/
adjective
adjective: ultimate
1.
being or happening at the end of a process; final.
last; furthest or farthest; ending a process or series: the ultimate point in a journey
noun
noun: ultimate; noun: the ultimate; plural noun: ultimates
1.
the best achievable or imaginable of its kind.
Matthew
Ur awesome – man…some day we WILL meet in person…maybe in a “BIG AL” meeting convention!!..:)
Guys like Soros know how to tell the truth and get away with it! 🙂
They know that people hear what they want to hear.
I consider Soros to be somewhat sinister (in a Dr. Evil way), but very clued in to the big picture, very plugged into the circles of the elite globalists, and he’s no dummy. I give weight to his opinions because I think he does “tell the truth and get away with it”, as you mentioned.
If you want sinister, I just saw a picture of Tony Blair on an article about Syria. If you want evil personified, there he was. It nearly made me puke.
Yep, he runs with the globalist sharks carving up the world as they see fit….but for how much longer until things reach a tipping point?
Yup Matthew, I wondered about that. I was thinking in terms of the final and the greatest.
My friend Rehana at University years ago used to say that Mahler was the ‘ultimate’ in music, especially if it was conducted by his protege Bruno Walter.
Yeah, you’re probably right to include “the greatest.” That’s all the more reason Soros wasn’t referring to the 2011 high as the MSM and others wanted us to think.
Btw, Stewart Thomson always refers to gold as the ultimate asset and I agree. I think John Exter would agree too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Exter
Interesting Matthew mentioning John Exter. I just went to Wikipedia link and guess what is at the far, wild, leveraged end of the pyramid? Derivatives and unfunded government liabilities! I think maybe an Austrian economist wrote that Wiki article.
I would not break out the champagne on a gold bottom just yet Gary. The key stocks I am watching have not given an all clear yet despite these moves up the past few trading days. These are all still trades in my view….not long term buy and holds. Not yet anyway.
Secondly, the chances of WTI breaking down around the 50 dollar mark basis the futures looks highly probable if it double tops there. I might change my outlook if it cuts through resistance easily but for now I remain on the cautious side unless the market gives it a green light..
Bird…..It’s wise to be cautious at this time….Me I’m not happy about the rise in G&S in the last 3 trading days…..something is not right…but I could be wrong.
Agree Tony. Its a technical head fake. I bought it…..but I am out now.
ALWAYs…..good to be a little careful,
Just be careful not to be too careful….
Let’s hope that prediction comes true G 🙂
Not sure if we’re out of the woods yet though… could have another leg down in PMs to frighten everyone and produce a buying spree for the big banks (which we should all take advantage of). Then, yes, I think PMs & miners are likely to rise quickly.
I think the main markets will be damn lucky to survive 18 months……. 6 months I reckon. They’re on borrowed time already.
Do we really think QE4 is underway? Propping up the market on off days is one thing but actively diluting the $ should surely be something that we can check on? No?
If there’s 35% more dollars in the system than before 2008 then a dollar is only worth 65c in real terms (without any outside influences such as inflation). Is there not a duty to record an increase in the money supply. Isn’t it how FX values are judged. Surely this must be a matter of public record?
TAD…If “THEY” were to publish a public record would you believe it…..ME !!! “NO”.
October 6th 2015 Gary has declared that he is 90% certain Gold has bottomed.
He also said miners bottomed last March.
Gary is a really good analyst but I am afraid I have to disagree with him on that call. Gold is forming a pennant (triangle…..whatever!) and will more than likely break down once it reaches its termination point. Personally, I would not take any heavy bets on gold just yet.
Lets see where it goes first. The fat lady has not sung.
A.L. for what it’s worth..it’s my understanding that the pennant formation during a downtrend is one of the least reliable …
Good point. That’s my experience too. But we do know that they usually resolve in a strong move even if we cannot be certain which way it finally goes. My money is on a continuation of the declines since that’s what the odds favour in a bear market. Just a deductive process. In the absence of any good technical reason to believe a breakout is coming to the upside then the obvious conclusion is that price will keep falling when the wedge terminates. In other words, the current pattern of declines will remain in play. Not that I won’t be pleasantly surprised if I am wrong……I just don’t think we are ready for prime time yet.
I have a good example of what we are talking about btw. You are an old hand at this Gator. Maybe give an opinion on the euro futures linked below. Take a look at the formation in the end of the chart and hazard a guess at which way it breaks.
Doc was mentioning this yesterday and I have also been watching it with interest for awhile now. Rick would probably tell you the Euro will break down ( thus a rising dollar) but the gold bugs would rather see it break up (falling dollar…good for gold).
Armstrong is in the camp that says the Euro is doomed and heading for 80 minimum. But I have a bias for the Euro to see 1.20 sooner rather than later. Whatever it does it will matter!
Here is the chart. The Euro on a monthly courtesy of FINVIZ.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=w1
A.L. I’m in your camp with the Euro..break and close above 1.15 and you will see 1.20..can’t agree with Armstrong on his 80 call..I’m not in the gold bug camp but would venture a guess that the formation will break to the upside. Higher lows with resistance at the 1.15 area indicates building interest…put me in the break out to the upside camp…but again these pennant formations have not been that productive in the past…
The bottom in march was just an intermediate cycle low. We’ve had 5 of them in this bear market. They generate bear market rallies. This one is looking different than they other 5. It’s behaving more like a bull market climbing a wall of worry than a bear market trying to generate fuel for another leg down.
That’s an interesting observation Gary, and I’m going to keep that under consideration that we may have put in the major bottom in Gold on July 24th then. I’m in the camp that we still have a date with one leg lower in commodities (PMs included), but am not married to that position. I just tend to agree with Doc, Avi Gilburt, and Jordan Roy-Byrne that we haven’t had the final sentiment washout, and had a few lower targets I’ve been expecting a retracement down to for the major bottom. However, your opinion is greatly respected, so I’m keeping an open mind.
I have been staring at real-time gold and silver charts since 2005 (watching it go up and then down). This feels different.
Noted. I respect your opinion as well Brian, and enjoy reading your posts.
This is not a bottom in gold or oil. A global commodity bust is coming soon. We’re going to get countertrend rallies that are occurring right now first. Then watch out! Oil is heading to $10 and Gold is heading to $500. At that point no one will be calling for a bottom, which will be the best time to buy as we will start a strong inflation cycle. Deflation first though.
I think $10 is very optimistic. Upper 30s – probably.
I think the oil price is heavily dependent on what is happening in Syria right now.
Syria is just noise like all the other news out there
Depending on the source, oil hit 10 to 13 cents in 1931. This translates to 159 to 206 barrels per ounce of gold. At $1150 gold, oil would have to trade between $5.58 and $7.23 in order to match the 1931 low. That’s not going to happen. Instead, the powerz will opt to mark gold up to achieve the “right” ratio.
This is not the 1930s though, so maybe a less extreme 100 barrels per ounce is all that is needed. That could mean $45 oil and $4,500 gold; $25 oil and $2,500 gold; or even $70 oil and $7,000 gold. I don’t know which it will be, but the system cannot withstand an environment that would take oil to $10 or below.
Btw and fwiw, I think a new low for commodities is not coming soon.
http://schrts.co/Dbyd07
Production is declining sharply over the next few months in the US. Energy consumption is going up over the next few years at around 3% or so per year. It increased around 3.5% last year. World production is reaching maximum levels. The current price is probably break-even for the oil companies. Oil is at least going to target around $60+ once it breaks the 200 day which is not far off now. Same pattern happened in 1985 with a double bottom and then a move up of 100%+.
My target was $17 for this rally in silver. It looks like it may hit it. I won’t be buying any physical silver until $5.
Velma –
What is your REAL NAME: MRS. Harry Dent
Sure Silver will be 5 bucks and gold 500 when gas is 50c cents a gallon, loaf of bread at a 25 cents – The DOLLAR HAS DIVED SO LOW THAT ITS RELATIVE VALUE IS SITTING WITH THE TITANIC 2 miles below the surface in the North Atlantic..hahaha…..it is all relative …:)))
Velma –
DONT MISLEAD PEOPLE…..provide some reference points……common!!!
This sounds just like the Dent emails I have been getting especially near the bottom of the correction with forecasts of Dow 3000 which can never happen. The S&P is up 100 points since. We can all wait for $5 silver and then load up and get rich quick or we all die long before that happens just waiting. People have been calling for a further collapse of the major oil stocks which are up about 16 to 20% in the past week. I bought some more at the bottom.
Once again I am being blocked
Now it is working again…
I hate to throw a wet blanket on everyones fun but a $10 up day in gold and a 20 cent up day in silver is a blip.
This means nothing
James….You could very well be right….my gut tells me something is not quite right. & that’s coming from a silver bull.
And a scholar & gentleman…. 🙂
Silver is up 5% in two days and 9.5% vs gold since Thursday’s open. A blip?
Yes a blip. If silver has not already peaked on this short cycle, its damn close. Gold already topped by my reckoning.
Why am I NOT surprised that you’ve broken our deal for a second time just days after we made the deal?
I was agreeing with you. 🙂
Matthew –
EXACTLY..we havent seen this in….???????..fwiw..not saying its breaking out just saying….
Marc, silver has decisively broken out of the downtrend that began in May and is a buy. That does not mean there won’t be pullbacks (that has to be pointed out or certain pretenders here will think there’s something wrong if it doesn’t go straight up) but it is on a buy signal until it isn’t.
I don’t know if this move will suddenly fail or not (no one does), but I DO know that you should ignore anyone who dismisses the action as a “blip.”
Open to close, silver is up 9.6% in three days on strong volume (and as much as 12% intraday).
http://schrts.co/GL58Zv
Silver is also breaking out of a much larger downtrend that began 15 months ago and is a buy on the more important weekly chart as well.
http://schrts.co/YqIAe5
Silver could blast higher before pulling back but if it pulls back first, it could fall all the way to the 50/55 ma/ema near $15 without destroying the bullish case.
http://schrts.co/aklI2D
I would like to see silver finish the week above 15.88, minimum.
http://schrts.co/YqIAe5
Armstrong’s computer said this would be a bullish trading signal for gold with next week being a bearish trading signal with a long time top coming this week to next week. Maybe y’all don’t like him, but he is usually pretty accurate. Gary, I highly respect your timing cycles, but you seem too set on the gold and commodities already bottoming for my tastes.
Here is his computer model printout: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37451
I have little confidence in a chart with 4-bit color done on a Commodore 64 computer.
“Mr. Armstrong? The 1980’s called and they want their chart back”
I didn’t either until I found they could make me money, LOL.
Ha!
Yeah Matthew a blip.
When silver gets to $48 again we’ll talk
So you’ll get interested AFTER it triples? I don’t think you understand how this investing thing works, lol, but O-tay!
$48? If that is the price you bought silver, it is problematic. You need to think what is wrong with your strategy.
Yeah I know how this investing thing works.
I don’t need to start popping champagne corks because a beat up horrible investment went up a quarter. Apparently you do
You’re hopeless James. Good luck.
Hope springs eternal.
I’m not sure if Gary is reading charts or tossing yarrow sticks, but the fundamentals presage a great unwinding.
The Middle East is a basket case, and their refugees are compounding the economic problems of an EU which was already on the brink of economic collapse.
Germany, the little engine that could, is coming off its track with the VW scandal, and Germany was the backbone of the EU..
China is collapsing because Americans can no longer afford to buy much as America’s private sector middle class continues its slow downward spiral in poverty.
Meanwhile back at the Fed, …….. stuff happens. ….And on the presidential campaign trail it’s all about ad homonyms.
So could it be that we’ve bottomed in commodities? Maybe so for some. Think I’ll make a note of this day prediction on this day and dig it out in about six months.
Gary was speaking of biotech months ago…as an indicator..
Battered Biotechs Trigger First “Death Cross” In 4 Years
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2015 – 09:50
For the first time since Spetember 2011, the Nasdaq Biotech Index has triggered a “death cross” as its 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day average…
Booyah! Sure looking strong!