Seems to us that we are in an economic situation where folks are not willing to accept reality.
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In spite of the shaky financial conditions, the conventional markets continue to perform well. We are starting to appreciate Gary’s past comment of “the Fed has got your back.” Rick Ackerman opines on this phenomenon.
Good forking chart, and it is definitely possible that the markets have topped and are rolling over. The 2000 area on the S&P is strong overhead resistance.
However, I could see a pullback in October down to a lower low (catching some off-guard) followed by a blow-off top (when everyone jumps on the short bandwagon). Gary mentioned this blow-off may already be underway….who knows?
We’ll need a bit more data (weeks/months) to confirm whether the recent move in the general markets was just (A) corrective pull-back, (B) the beginning of the bear market in equities, or (C) the first leg down of a 3 leg counter trend move followed by a 5 wave blow off.
I will say Rick has raised an interesting point several times with the April 2015 change in the Advance/Decline ratio in the general markets. It is time for the Bull in the general markets to be exhausted and the Bear to gain the upper hand, so if we are in the beginning throws of a Big Bear….it would be about time.
There is just this voice in the back of my mind that is waiting for one last push in a few months where everyone believes the correction is behind them and they get over-confident. That is when I’d expect the Bear to strike.
I changed the yr=7 in the URL to yr=5 and looked more closely. The close was very close to the pitchfork line and Paul Coghlan would say that is important. The price has fallen out of the channel and that previous support line is currently resistance. Hmmm.
I agree with Rick that stocks are in a bear market and see no reason to be in it. 200 week ma, here we come.
I always find it odd that so many are so quick to claim US equities are in a Bear market after being in a bull run for 6+ years, yet gold is always a buy and never in a bear market after falling for 4+ years continuing to make lower highs before rolling over…rather 1 sided view, no?
S&P 500 is 6% off its highs, yup its a Bear market!! Gold is 40%, Silver 70% off its highs and the miner indexs off 80% ++ wow!
Just saying lets keep it REAL
I want to point out that I voiced my agreement with Rick precisely because the bear is not a confirmed fact. If it were confirmed, I wouldn’t have to say anything. It’s simply my opinion that stocks have entered a bear. We will probably get a very convincing rally sometime soon but I doubt that it will change anything.
The Trans Index has been declining for 45 weeks and I expect it to take out the bottom rail of its 7 year old up channel, at least briefly, before it can resume its rise. That’s a minimum in my opinion.
http://schrts.co/jAcBbj
Good point OJJ. Most people didn’t call the gold bear market until gold crashed from $1600 to $1300 in on 12-15 April 2013, 19 months after the top. The Gold TA Paradise guys would call that the Point Of Recognition (POR).
I never claimed that gold wasn’t in a bear and I was bullish stocks when no one here was, including Al, Doc and Rick. I talked about 19,000 Dow years ago and without Martin’s influence.
What has unfolded on the monthly chart is very bearish. It will take something big to reverse it —and maybe we’ll get it but there are a lot of reasons to be bearish big picture.
no!
that was for original jj
“I always find it odd that so many are so quick to claim US equities are in a Bear market after being in a bull run for 6+ years, yet gold is always a buy and never in a bear market after falling for 4+ years continuing to make lower highs before rolling over…rather 1 sided view, no?”
yes
No shit. Guys like Bob Moriarty…was thrur stupid and dangerours mantra.
Some talent you have with words: “absolute piece of the illusion”. Well said.
The FOMC minutes will be scrutinized more than ever and people will probably find what they don’t like to hear. To put it all in perspective, a liquidity trap is the best explanation rather than deflation, which is why negative rates will become a reality, and why they’re necessary.
Sad but true. I still find it disheartening and baffling that the blather from the central bank has held the concentration and speculation of the entire world’s free markets hostage.
If you traveled back in time 20-30 years and showed Wall Street that everything will come down to FOMC minutes and Fedspeak, they’d laugh you off the floor. Now if you ignore it, they’ll wipe you off the floor.
S&P weekly technicals look good from the long side. Monthly technicals not bad either. Not much volume during the August downside through now in comparison to 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008 and even 2007.
I think stocks are going higher. BTW I sold my NEM position today. Might run to $20.50 but I’m good with $3.5
………..sea change?…….Silver up THREE DAYS in row……..
GOOD LUCK AL(OWL)………………
silver looking good again today……………….just saying…………
3 days up in Silver is more of a puddle change….
…..then comes the pond change…. (higher highs and higher lows)
….then the lake change (key technical resistance levels keep falling)….
….and finally the sea change…. (the winds of the market clearly show that PMs are in a new bull, and it becomes self-evident to all…..but they missed the move 🙂 )
Look at silver if you want to see strong up days. Silver is leading the sector. It just balsted through it’s 200 DMA.
the close is the key on the silver chart not the daily action so lets close above $16.12 for the continued bull case
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p44267468252&listNum=1&a=425266377
just holding above $16 will be fine………and FRIDAY WILL TELL THE TELL…..
It is merely completing an obvious technical pattern before turning back down, Gary. Nothing to get excited about here. Just trade the rally and enjoy. But don’t get suckered because the final bottom has not been seen yet.
FOMC minutes released Thursday afternoon, lets remember the Sept 17th FOMC meeting was what started the rise off $1100 so a Dovish minutes release could be the fuel needed to close above $1147 and take on $1169…$1205….$1232
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p30742647110&listNum=1&a=426781351
The problem is that most people have a skewed concept of what reality is. They believe that they recognize it (i.e. “some talk show host told me that the illuminati runs the world – therefore, it is a fact.”). We have a problem Houston – subjective information is being treated as objective truth by most people.
ONLY one truth……….and it will not be found here.
James – Try again. I never claimed that gold WASN’T in a bear market.
Have some self respect and take responsibility for yourself.
7th up day for me with 3 to 5% up days with losses disappearing fast. I figured we would hit 2000 today and we came close at 1999 with a strong close at 1995. My earlier target of 2100 for the end of the year looks too low.
The bull market is still on until it is proven otherwise. We just had a correction and no need to panic yet. We have 2 strong months coming and the market will look quite strong quite soon.
The money managers have to buy to push the market up so they look good at year-end. They have to invest because that is their job to pump up the market and grab new customers. It is the only thing they know. They will not tell their customers to take out their money and invest in something else.
Today’s high for the S&P near 2000 came at a key fork resistance:
http://schrts.co/i6Zsga