Where do we sit in terms of cycles for the conventional markets and gold
Gary savage kicks off today with an update on where the cycles sit for the conventional markets and precious metals.
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Monday’s 300 + points was PPT engineered, for sure.
(Don’t know about yesterday)
If the PPT fails to engineer a significant up day on Friday, it is my personal belief we will enter a bear general stockmarket soon.
For contrarians, out of over 8,000 hedge funds, the majority are long, not hedged.
Less than 20 funds are net short……..they can NOT get more long.
I’m personally slightly hedged long, but looking to turn short.
The most dangerous situation is going to occur in bonds, where much will be lost next year imho.
Appears to be new bull market in oil stocks. XOP etf is now up 25% from the bottom in 9 trading days. I am holding on to this one for quite a while.
Silver may have dropped slightly recently, but try to buy any volume (> 1K ozs in silver) any not have to wait a month!
go to a bullion trading BANK and you can buy all the physical you want
care to give me a phone number for a bullion bank with silver, original jj?
mocatta will fill your boots with all the 100oz silver bars you want
Mocatta is supper expensive. Every time I buy there I cry. They charge premium, shipping, bar fee, physical fee… Every time I am tired of them and go somewhere else, they are more expensive, except they just hide those fees in even higher premium. I am tired of the silver dealers, their attitude is Screw you, your loss if you don’t buy.
service and prem isn’t the topic, its availability and they have all the 100oz bars you want!
PM is always available since there is large above ground inventory. the key is premium. If premium is high, it means real market is rationing demand through high price and the spot price is wrong. If premium is not problem , then the market cannot have problem. For example, if you are willing to pay twice the price of spot, I can sell mine to you.
Re: “service and prem isn’t the topic, its availability and they have all the 100oz bars you want!”
Now there’s a world class LOL!
You can’t talk shortages in gold/silver without talking PRICE! Wow.
I would assume we are all graduated from high school with reasonable rational thinking. The point is how close the retail price of product to the spot. If the premium is high and even the product still available to industry at no premium, it means a large sector of the demand is cut off artificially. The market is no longer free.
The whole theory behind the Sprott Silver ETF was that you could buy shares and exchange for physical silver. Right now you can buy with a 1% premium.
http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-value/
I got a quote yesterday on three 1000 ounce bars at 2% over spot.
What silver shortage are you guys talking about?
Yes, at the retail level the vendors are stiffing their customers.
Bob, the low premium says there’s no shortage IF there’s no wait.
A low premium means nothing if there’s a six week delay since you’d be taking additional risks.
I can have 1000 ounce bars delivered tomorrow. there is no real shortage, just a lot of guys pumping an imaginary shortage. Two weeks ago I visited my dealer in Miami, true, premiums were up but he had 100 ounce bars in stock, junk silver in stock and I bought some Eagles. All were in stock but at a high premium. When silver is in shortage it will show up in 1000 ounce bars first, not last.
BOB…..WHAT did you pay for the eagles……………..
I remember in my old country in 1970s, we had everything in shortage. Government basically block the chain of supply and demand and favored industry and let the retail dry up. We had to use ration book to buy things. The price was low but you cannot get much. Industry had much better supply and a lot of products were exported to earn foreign currency. I just don’t believe that in a free market, people can make plenty of money in retail by arbitraging the supply and they don’t do it. The high premium has been here for years and banks seem to show no interest to make money. They charge all kind of fees to make the price much higher than the spot price.
O JJ:
But the premiums are skyrocketing. Kitco was over $5.00 for I oz. maple leaf rounds yesterday (U.S.) and over 7.00 if one is using Looneys. My info is that the refiners are selling to the U.S. Mint rather than wholesalers as their profit margin on blanks to the mint is higher.
Correct Gary the only ammo the central banks have is currency devaluation Japan’s Machinery orders were way off last night as consensus was up 3.2 actual was -5.7% suggesting more currency devaluation from BOJ Oct 30th and that’s not gold bullish, its US equity bullish.
Gary you may want to adjust your incorrect call suggesting Silver has broken out from its Long Term Down Trend Line with the chart at your blog, Daily:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50455700457&a=426924976&listNum=1
Btw, I think you know that many (if not most) chartists prefer to connect at least three points not two when drawing a trendline. And if you’re familiar with Gann’s work then you know that the line I’ve drawn on the monthly line chart is a “better” angle.
It’s the shorter trends that it hasn’t broken out of:
http://schrts.co/qKEpUe
your line is incorrect
That’s the longest possible trend line.
Based on the three cyclical monthly high closes, silver is breaking out:
http://schrts.co/fA5DUV
Mat,
Just igone him, he has no idea how to draw a trend line. No wonder he only trades in hindsight 🙂
You didn’t connect your trend line to any pivots. You just drew it to show it intersecting with price at yesterdays top. A correct trend line will interect pivots.
I drew the line correctly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44265018480&a=426933648&listNum=1
Well boyz and girlz its just shows how those that want to spin their bs do so by not being able to correctly read a chart, too funny, go ahead and ignore the charts, lol
and to think people actually pay for this rookie chart work, too funny!!
Gary you wish you could draw a correct silver chart but you can’t back down now as you’ve incorrectly suggested silver has broke out, NO 20/20 on this chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p03578081835&a=426935873&listNum=1
According to Doc NOBODY on the planet has called golds action correctly more so than him (his words) this past year, Doc is suppose to be the chartists of chartists! so if Doc agrees and can produce his chart that silver has in fact broke out from its down trend resistance line from the 2011 highs I’ll never post or visit this site again…………..
The action around my line shows its validity all the way down:
http://schrts.co/nd643G
Keep trying Matt, if your chart was correct which it is NOT it proves that silver has had 6 false breakouts going on 7…I’ll wait for Doc to post his chart
That’s silly JJ. There was a blatant battle at my line at the end of 2012. Why do you think silver crashed and burned as soon as the bears won? The price finally returned to my line in July 2014, and FAILED there. THAT’S why it then plunged another 33%. The next failure at my line in January ’15 resulted in a 17% plunge and the last one in May resulted in a 20% plunge.
Going back to my 6 green arrows, you can clearly see that price was pivoting at my line.
I though you knew this sort of stuff.
every one of your green arrows was followed shortly by a LOWER, LOW…=…a false breakout, just because you think you know something to be correct Matt does not mean you are correct, sorry if I’m correcting your chart work along with Gary’s, its wrong!
Take another look at it and tell me you don’t see evidence in the action. You’re trying to tell the market when you should be letting the market tell you.
http://schrts.co/nd643G
Matt your chart is incorrect so your points are as well, this is correct, sorry
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68868102681&a=426955504&listNum=1
JJ, it is not incorrect to put one line to one trend. I have plenty of charts chopping it up as you have for detail. If you can’t see the price reactions around the line I’ve drawn then I don’t know what to tell you.
For example, I put this simple one up recently:
http://schrts.co/YqIAe5
To break out across every time frame is a process not an event -at least until we get to the final and most important one. Ex: We’ve broken out of the downtrend that began in May but not the one that began in January: http://schrts.co/GL58Zv
Gary,
You are flying by the seat of your pants winging everything.
Aborted cycles, manipulation daily, FED not going to let this happen,
PPT at work
On and on it goes.
Then you talk as if you know every single move way out in the future.
This will happen then that will happen, then this…
It’s ridiculous
You have no idea from one day to the next.
First you say gold is going to rocket launch quickly to $1250, never happened.
Now you are glad it is going slow like what a wall of worry is
You once said the retail investor is in the market and setting up to be slaughtered, now it is a bubble phase, if that’s true the retail investor for the next year or two is going to do very well
You have no clue
I have a right to be critical when people on this blog are influenced by you.
Why I have no idea
Stop the guessing and the daily flip flopping
Peter, If I remember correctly, Doc was not bullish at all two weeks ago.
Matthew
I really don’t know what these guys are dreaming off.
My only conclusion can be, THEY DON’T KNOW. 🙂
How can Doc gamble by short gold without a sell signal, not very smart, just poking in the dark.
Peter
Gary has said the bottom is in & the gold train is leaving the station several times now. I said back then his call was its leaving in the wrong direction…..that was when gold was a couple of hundred dollars higher.
No Eye Deer !
Pennwest doing well today!
I just called up my gold dealer.
ALL THE 100 OZ BARS OF SILVER YOU WANT
80 cents over spot.
Works out to 5% premium
Which is right in line with normal averages.
PEOPLE HAVE TO STOP BELIEVING ALL THE PUMPERS
I never be able to pay less than 15% (it is getting higher) by calculating all the fees. If you can arrange 100 ounce bars to be delivered to my door step, I am happy to pay 10%.
Need to add for the freight on top of spot…………..
I should add for IMMEDIATE DELIVERY as well
Again there are a lot of PUMPERS out there, and on this sight as well.
BUYER BEWARE
READER BEWARE!!
I suspect you guys never bought any physical. What you talk about is theory. Try buy something and see the bill.
premiums fluctuate on everything we buy, its not the point we are stressing, its the fact physical 100oz silver bars are available at the premium dealers not some coin shop or miner providing their own stamped bars…
The premium is everything JJ. A high premium = shortage no matter how many bars they have.
no a high premium more often than not is a demand issue, regardless of premiums being whatever the fact remains one can buy as many 100oz silver bars as they want from MAJOR BULLION BANK DEALERS…pay CASH and you can carry out all you can…need more and they will deliver!
LOL JJ! No kidding it’s a demand issue. What you don’t understand is that supplydemand is one word in economics! If the usual price is spot plus 5% and you have to spend spot plus 10% to get “all the silver you want” then there is a shortage of silver available at spot plus 5%, end of story.
The queen of bubble world thinks I live in bubble world.
That makes sense. 🙂
Why are you obsessed with me? We made a deal to ignore each others’ comments and not only did you break that deal almost immediately, but you also have violated your own (ridiculous) demand to be civil. You get prissy and play victim over and over again while YOU’RE the problem.
Go play with your turtle BIRD Listener.
WANT to NAME SOME NAMES………………
I traded my oil etf today as the volatility is high. Bought back my position a little lower and it is heading much higher.
Energy sector is about to power up the market to above 2000. It is being held down by the biotech sector.
Being RIGHT is sometimes overrated. The most mature person doesn’t have to be right…he is the one that zips it up… to keep the unity.
Looks like a mini reverse head and shoulders going on as we speak in Ag!
Dragonote,
You have no idea what you are talking about.
I’ve been buying physical for 16 including a re net purchase for my daughter.
I’ve never had any problems as far as price or timing
or more IMPORTANTLY, DELIVERY (availability) purchasing thru a major bullion dealer, pay cash and they will hand you all the 100oz bars you can carry!!
But at what premium? THAT is the question. If it is too high, that means there’s a shortage of metal at the official price.
Call mocatta and tell them you’ll pay cash for 100 – 100oz bars of which you will take physical delivery at ??? branch, they will fill your boots, there is NO SILVER SHORTAGE at the bullion dealers, that is my whole point
What premium??? A higher than usual premium means there IS a shortage.
The above ground supply of silver always equals decades of production so a shortage is identified by the premium. There is ALWAYS a lot of silver ready to be sold IF… the price is right.
Totally wrong Matthew. You have obviously never been in the business. Higher premiums happen when either demand (and/or) prices are in decline. The premium is what the seller demands to make up for the difference in costs (potential loss) between what they paid and what the current market price is. During periods of rising demand and rising prices you typically see premiums decline UNTIL that point when a *real* shortage develops. If there are genuine shortages then dealers are free to tack on any premium they think the market will bear and most of the time buyers will not quibble. It’s a good business.
Since you are claiming 5% premium, I am wondering can you have 5 100 bars delivered to my house. I will pay you spot price plus 5% total. I you can, I can ask Al to give you my email.
Funny how back in 2011-12 Bernanke was so confident I flation expectations would come down. The Fed was clearly coordinating monetary policy with the BoJ and the ECB.
The same is true now. How is Old Yeller so confident inflation expectations will rise? How is she so confident??? Because she knows damn well the BoJ isn’t engaging in anymore QE for the foreseeable future. The commodity markets hinge almost entirely on Yen carry. This is a lever the Fed can apparently hit any time it wants to cap commodities.
These bankers are the most immoral, evil shysters the world has ever seen. If there is a hell, they will surely be rotting in it.
Dragonite,
I am not delivering anything to you.
If you want to purchase physical gold and or silver I can hook you up with my gold dealer.
Give Al your email address, he will forward it to me and I will give you the info
You have to guarantee I get spot + 5%, otherwise I am wasting my time.
WHAT is the big secret…
JUST POST THE NAME……..I would like to do my own research…….
USA DEALERS ONLY…………thanks………….
NO answer………..I didn’t think so………………….
Dragonite,
Are you kidding me?
I am not guaranteeing anything
What am I a gold dealer?
Call up my gold dealer and work it out with him
I’m doing you a favor
Don’t waste my time!
Mind to post the dealer name here? I will ask them. I know it won’t work for me since I am in western Canada. It may work for others.
I told you give Me your email address and I will forward you all the information.
This is not complicated.
He is he only dealer I would ever recommend.
As far as Western Canada goes, I don’t see what that has to do with anything.
Hello Al,
Can you forward my email to James? thanks a lot.
I just made he request.
The request.
A.L. I just don’t think it is possible with 5% above spot. When I buy from Kitco, the premium price is around 10% but I had to add shipping and insurance which was around 12%. When I bought from Scotia Macatta, I paid only 3% premium but I need to pay US$2/Oz bar fee, US$1/Oz shipping, some physical fee, currency exchange, etc. I had to pay regardless they ship or not. When I buy from Albern, I pay 15% premium even I picked up. When I bought from Royalbank, I paid 20% premium but no other fees. It was a few year ago. The fee have gone up with silver price but never came down with the price drop. I also tried to buy 1000 ounce bar because 100 ounce bar was not available, they sale person almost fought me to convince me to buy their certificate instead of bar. He said I was making big mistake. I never saw any other kind of sale treating their clients so rudely. Every time he would say I am shorting canadian dollar or US dollar so it may not work.
I AGREE WITH ….A. .L……………..just type out the dealers name…………what a joke.
plus the dealer most likely would appreciate the free advertising………jmho..
“The Fed is not going to let 5 trillion in QE go down the drain and just sit on the sidelines and watch it happen”. — Gary
————–
First off Gary, there has not been 5 trillion in liquidity interventions in the market. The Fed balance sheet has grown to 4.5 trillion in total but it did not begin from zero back when the first QE was announced.
At most, the total of all programs amounted to 3.5 trillion but even of that amount there is more than a trillion currently sitting at the Fed care of excess reserves deposited by the banks. In effect that amount has never entered the system except as a book entry.
This whole notion of there being some wild undisciplined money printing experiment is always taken out of context and spun to be much more than what it really is. The Federal Reserve is not cutting cheques willy-nilly to every Tom Dick and Harry broker to suppress gold or push up stocks or any other ridiculous assertion some people make (with no evidence whatsoever).
To repeat a comment I left yesterday, what the Fed has taken on its balance sheet are considered assets. That is the business that was actually undertaken as a means to get the system liquid. Those purchases included Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities as two example and those two items make up the bulk of all purchases.
In principle these will be sold back into the market at a later state and the entries will reverse themselves. Profitability, if any, will as usual be recycled back to the Treasury itself.
I don’t think there are many here who doubt the Fed will find willing buyers for those Treasuries in the event that we keep deflating and stay in a low rate (even negative rate) environment.
The MBS are more problematic however the Fed has already stated they would be prepared to hold them to maturity and just let them run off over time and in this way the market would not be pressured to soak them up and create a liquidity drain.
As much as I enjoy hearing your interviews each day and respect your many good calls this is one aspect of your talks that just sounds unprofessional and uninformed. Instead of gathering your facts from the panic-blogospere and basement dwelling, arm chair critics I would encourage you to instead go and read the balance sheet of the Fed itself and familiarize yourself with what they have actually done.
Its fair enough to wonder if debt instruments are really assets (we all do that) but to keep suggesting there is some nefarious Federal Reserve plot to support or suppress the global currency, commodity and stock markets just sounds childish.
I THINK WE HAVE SOME DELETES…………
Actually a lot Frank.
All inappropriate comments will now result in a total and complete block of their ip addresses.
We received a huge amount of complaints from listeners sent directly to Cory and myself.
Well, I see no problem there. Actually, it should help smooth things out.
celente:
https://youtu.be/CQUnkI_roCg