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Are these breakouts in the markets, oil and gold justified?

October 9, 2015

We kick today off with Chris Temple focusing on the breakouts we are seeing in the conventional markets, oil and gold. What is driving these markets higher and should we expect it to continue?

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Discussion
50 Comments
    Oct 09, 2015 09:18 AM

    As long as the BoJ holds off on increasing QE, commodities should have a little run here. Listen to what Janet says about inflation and where she expects it to go. The Fed has basically told you exactly where to put your money over the last 7 years. Exactly.

    The Fed is still in total control. I just think they wanted to devalue the USD from a much higher level, and it looks like they nailed it.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:25 AM

    Chris spot on Dovish Fed minutes, very odd as I stated shortly after the minutes gold reacted correctly then fell hard into the close which was odd/incorrect.

    Chris your are bringing attention to fundamentals as a terrible investment approach as Oil should not be $50 but it is and those that trade oil and the oil stocks have enjoyed good % gains basing their actions from the charts bullish signals not fundamentals.

    If gold closes above $1156.40 its another bullish signal as the chart shows, gold did break out from its 2015 resistance trend line Tuesday then tested the line with Thurs close so the breakout continues as we speak, next up $1169……$1205…..$1232 with a bullish close today, a close back inside the triangle would be bearish

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p30742647110&a=426781351&listNum=1

    Oct 09, 2015 09:29 AM

    Matthew your buddy Hubbartt knows how to draw a silver chart AND read it correctly, no I did not teach him, lol

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt100915.html

      Oct 09, 2015 09:08 PM

      I know it’s very hard for you to believe, JJ, but there are things you don’t know. I almost feel sorry for you. 😉

    Oct 09, 2015 09:43 AM

    Santelli & Hunt Warn About “Dire Consequences” Of Negative Rates
    Tyler Durden’s pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/09/2015 11:11 -0400

    Main Street Rick Santelli

    inShare

    As more and more Fed speakers, talking heads, and status-quo-protectors talk of, beg for, and demand negative interest rates (NIRP), the mainstream is starting to wake up to the possibility of this farce coming to America. As Lacy Hunt tells Rick Santelli in the brief clip below, “the evidence is overwhelming that QE was more of a negative than positive,” and warns the consequences of NIRP are dire (and The Fed has the tools to enginner it) as “to make it effective they would effectively have to call in the currency.”

    It appears, given the rising volume of chatter about negative rates that Americans are being conditioned to accept this… As Lacy Hunt explains below, the consequences for Main Street and Institutions is not good…

    ZERO HEDGE

      Oct 09, 2015 09:51 AM

      Yes that is true, but it reminds me a lot of back in 2010 when I was purchasing bonds. The 10YR was around 3.8% and all talking heads, banks, etc. were calling for 4%, 4.5%, 5% and 5.5% estimates for the next few years. The ten year proceeded to fall to 1.5% over the next few years. I am looking to short bonds very soon.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:44 AM

    I am watching whether 1180 is broken today or next week.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:45 AM

    jj gold has not breached the long term trendline from oct 2012 yet.1180 which happens to be the 50ma on the weekly is the top of the trendline.Momentum indicators are all in overbought territory.Btw triangles come in three forms i.e. symmetrical,ascending and descending.Hence the triangle is not invalidated yet

      Oct 09, 2015 09:49 AM

      agree I can see that, my chart was of the 2015 action which has been lower highs

      Oct 09, 2015 09:53 AM

      Hum … you’re like Yellen. You’re moving the goalposts :).

    Oct 09, 2015 09:50 AM

    Technically gold is still in a bear trend.Anyone who denies that knows nothing about charting.Gold has to reach the 200ma on the monthly i.e. 817 by not later than the 1st quarter of next year.

      Oct 09, 2015 09:01 AM

      You are ignoring the fundamentals of loose monetary policy around the world. Do fundamentals make no difference in the long term? I don’t think so.

        Oct 09, 2015 09:02 AM

        As time goes along, fundamentals put more and pore pressure on the price suppression scheme.

          Oct 09, 2015 09:28 AM

          This time they wont make any difference because the credit agencies will lower the credit of us sovereign debt and rates will rise exponentially automatically due to gargantuous withdrawls from from us treasuries.The fed is only buying its time atm.Credit agencies cannot close their eyes for the eternity.They have already lost much of their credit due to the false ratings that they gave before the recession of 2008.Lehman was one of them.Having said that they will drag their feet as long as they possibly can.Maybe if they were not u.s firms things would be different and usd would have already lost its reserve status.

            Oct 09, 2015 09:38 AM

            First, in a financial crisis, gold usually goes up. Gold price is only affected when rate goes a lot higher, e.g. 10%. You can verify it with gold price’s move prior to 2008, where the rate was around 5%. Also the gold price is not only decide by US factors alone. This is usually ignored by people living in US. US is around 20% of world financial market. Also US is a huge net seller of gold which sends gold to Eastern countries. This has to stop before the gold is drained.

            Oct 09, 2015 09:02 AM

            Don,
            I agree with all of your comments. Spot on!

    Oct 09, 2015 09:01 AM

    I have been calling for the dollar to drop to around 88 for a while. It may even go down to 85 eventually. That could translate to 1250 for gold and close to 60+ for oil.
    The dollar is below the 50 and 200 now as well as the 40 week.

    bb
    Oct 09, 2015 09:28 AM

    Watched Colbert interview Berneke last night.
    Everything is gonna be fine.

      Oct 09, 2015 09:41 AM

      ha,ha……..that is where that clown needs to be…..late night with comics………

    Oct 09, 2015 09:37 AM

    We need to see if gold breaks out on the point and figure chart (3rd one down):
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24GOLD

    Oct 09, 2015 09:39 AM

    I think I hear some change of minds from yesterday, concerning the stock market.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:42 AM

    Dragonite

    I gave Al my gold dealers contact info to give to you

    Oct 09, 2015 09:50 AM

    Hey Al and Cory
    Are you going to have Avi on the weekend show?
    Brian

    Oct 09, 2015 09:52 AM

    We have had 153 point move on the s&p and it is looking risky now. I have had 8 strong days in a row and I am just a little down today. Thinking I should cash out and wait.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:04 AM

    GOLD pushing higher……….been pushed higher 4 times , see min chart and comments at zerohedge.

      Oct 09, 2015 09:05 AM

      I bet the hedge funds are now buying……..as suggested last week by zerohedge

        Oct 09, 2015 09:07 AM

        if , you look at the volume of the min buying…….something is in the wind…..maybe TURD F. could shed some hind sight on the matter.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:12 AM

    Oil is being stamped down from 50 and the market does not look like it will hold if oil cannot stay above 50.

      Oct 09, 2015 09:22 AM

      Saudies might have something to do with it………

        Oct 09, 2015 09:32 AM

        I think it is the big traders like Goldman shorting and they are likely shorting the s&p from 2020.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:14 AM

    Those Alexco and Claude daily charts are very pretty !

    Oct 09, 2015 09:14 AM

    “Are we only supposed to go along with whatever someone says”

    Of course – that’s why it says “SUBMIT” at the bottom.

    SUBMIT or DIE, PLEBEIAN

    Oct 09, 2015 09:39 AM

    I sold everything. I was only in oil stocks heavily invested. They went up 25% in 8 days and I can see myself losing a good part of that by getting greedy. Investors will suddenly all start taking profits and it is better to beat the crowd out the door.

      Oct 09, 2015 09:22 PM

      I follow the same philosophy but occasionally I get greedy and get hosed.

        Oct 09, 2015 09:18 PM

        I usually lose my huge gains so this time I am playing it cool like Doc who does not get excited about anything and avoids getting emotional and just waits patiently.

    Oct 09, 2015 09:21 PM

    Looks like the ceiling in NUGT is $100. I’m in at $60 and change. Locked and loaded!

    I thought we got rid of Irwin?

    Oct 09, 2015 09:16 PM

    The Canadian dollar bumped perfectly into fork resistance this week:
    http://schrts.co/BahX79

    Oct 09, 2015 09:24 PM

    Anyone on this page ever follow a couple small companies I’ve watched for years. They both went like everything else but since 2011, have come all the way back. GSS has operations in Ghana and MGH is mostly in China. Nevertheless, I’m thinking of picking up some of each at their lows and just hanging around during the early part of a potential new bull in gold. It’s all gambling and it may be dead money but could be some fireworks if the hedgies start playing again. Any one have any comments on Golden Star and Minco Gold?

    Oct 09, 2015 09:02 PM

    “This past week’s major breakout is the potential new-bull confirmation signal.”
    -Adam Hamilton
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton100915.html