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Breakouts in the Markets

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October 10, 2015

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Discussion
287 Comments
    JIM
    Oct 10, 2015 10:27 AM

    AL:

    Thanks for the Rick Rule interview. He always provides great market insight & knowledge.

    All The Best,

    JIM

      Oct 10, 2015 10:30 AM

      Jim, Rick Rule will not tell us when he is buying and more importantly when he is selling. Sprott had an article on resource stocks on October the 4th, they are saying not to expect a turnaround anytime soon:
      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/sprott-asset-management-diversifying-away-from-gold-and-resources/article26644552/

        Oct 10, 2015 10:32 PM

        I was appalled by this article but not surprised. Had Sprott HEDGE fund since inception and thank god I sold 75% of it 2010 and the Top. Its lost 75% since then.
        Eric says he was selling what people wanted??!!!…What a load of CRP.
        I recognized their great ability 17 years ago when no one knew who they were..
        Then I saw the fact that rather than being a great contrarions and a good stock pickers they started drinking the commodities cool-aide…
        They were more focused in building a brand and Eric hitting a Billion then looking out for preservation of capital. COMMODITIES ARE HIGHLY CYCLICAL!!!!
        Ironically their best fund manager left back then as he knew the commodities bull was over. I had a couple 100K with his fund as well and promptly sold it. Thank god that fund sucked too.
        Follow the manager with nothing to sell and no ego…..

          Oct 10, 2015 10:00 PM

          Was suppose to be “rather then preserving capital ”
          I dont trust but 2 people these days. The guys that navegated successfully through the last 15 years!

            Oct 10, 2015 10:44 PM

            That’s two more than I trust.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:23 PM

            Good one mathew but it takes great time and knowledge / experience and almost a gift to be able to invest on fundamentals and make money.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:44 PM

          Stocks are also highly cyclical in real terms.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:08 AM

      Pleasure Jim. Rick is also a very good guy.

    JIM
    Oct 10, 2015 10:36 AM

    AL:

    Also, thank you for NOT giving Bo Polny any more airtime. GREAT DECISION!!

    All The Best,

    JIM

    Oct 10, 2015 10:56 AM

    Interesting thoughts from both Gary and Avi.

    Avi appears to have the same thoughts that Gary had, until very recently, about a big correction in mid/later October with a 7 year cycle low occurring at that time before everything – gold, general commodities and conventional stocks – all going to the Moon there-after.

    As Gary has been pointing out this week, here on Kereport and on his blog, he thinks that the Fed has curtailed that big October low happening by stealth QE manipulation and that gold, general commodities and conventional stocks, with the exception of the USD, are now heading up.

    Both make compelling arguments. I know we all want to get in at the exact bottom – human nature – but whether markets crash or not this month if we then get a situation where everything goes up into 2016 then maybe the time is simply now to begin cost averaging into these stocks if you are a long term holder?

      Oct 10, 2015 10:41 AM

      BEST way to “get in at the exact bottom”…….never get out.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:45 AM

      The trend has begun and yet no one believes. Traders are funny animals. They say they will wait for a trend before buying. Then when a trend begins they dont’ trust it and start trying to pick a top.

      http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/10/chart-of-the-day-158.html

        Oct 10, 2015 10:50 AM

        Gary………BELKIN IS IN YOUR CAMP………check out KWN,( andy posted the link below).

        Oct 10, 2015 10:00 AM

        Here in the UK there are news reports that a Turkish NATO jet has shot down a Russian jet over-flying the Turkish border.

        If confirmed then I imagine oil and gold will go crazy on Sunday night/Monday morning.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:03 AM

          THAT SOUNDS LIKE A …….ROTHCHILD call …like in a Wellington style…….

          Oct 10, 2015 10:16 AM

          I find that hard to believe. Cannot even imagine the consequences!

            Oct 10, 2015 10:06 AM

            Yes, let us all hope that it is incorrect.

            bb
            Oct 10, 2015 10:31 PM

            RT would have reported that. They havn’t.
            UK media gauging reaction?

      Oct 10, 2015 10:11 AM

      I agree, Bob

    Oct 10, 2015 10:41 AM

    Bo Polny any more airtime. GREAT DECISION!!””

    Agreed!

    Oct 10, 2015 10:27 AM

    Pretium’s financing was NOT a capital raise. They borrowed heavily to complete their financing. For a miner to encumber themselves with debt at the outset guarantees that money goes solely to the banks, credit default swap bond holders, and the management. Shareholders utterly screwed.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:55 AM

      On the technicals, it appears Pretium is starting to break down.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:09 AM

      Admittedly, I only understand the $540M package at the most-general level (Would the alternative be to dramatically dilute shares?)

      Regardless of Pretium’s funding method(s), the stock as gotten ahead of itself (DOC’s comment below). A re-tracement to the US$6.00 level is almost a certainty, based on only the K-Channel.

      With respect to fundamentals and resources, there is no other gold mine on the planet with as much potential as Pretium. Expected mill completion within 24 months, 500K ounces per year for almost 20 years, AISC around $US500, and and some of the highest grades in the world. I’m holding my shares and would buy more if PVG drops below $US5.00.

      Brian

        Oct 10, 2015 10:35 AM

        And PVG has great management and great exploration prospects too. I hope to buy more@5.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:53 AM

          I think the problem was that the brucejack is a silver mine with gold credits, which was the source of the dispute with the third party geologist who refused to sign off on the project. This pushed Pretium to resort to bank financing, rather than dilute the shares. Silver mines have been going broke as aresult of heavily financing their projects, or dilut:ing the value of their shares. You would expect that resource based investor would be demanding a competitive yield rather than ‘let them eat alpha’

    Oct 10, 2015 10:07 AM

    Following on from Seg 1 re Michael Belkin gives an interesting interview KWN.

    http://kingworldnews.com/michael-belkin/

      Oct 10, 2015 10:52 AM

      I was waiting last nite to hear this…….interesting that BELKIN is over at KWN, giving a discount ….where is the discount for owl….

        Oct 10, 2015 10:18 AM

        Thanks did not know that. I will talk with him.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:12 PM

        FFM…I followed Belkin when he was with Solomon in the 80’s..very astute and honest man…and he knows his business…might give you a discount for hooters…

          Oct 10, 2015 10:16 PM

          Thanks ….Me and OWL…will meet you at hooters……OWL always buys.

            Oct 10, 2015 10:31 PM

            He does?

          Oct 10, 2015 10:26 PM

          Gator, I am putting him towards the top of the list to follow…..per your recommendation……………………OOTB

    Oct 10, 2015 10:38 AM

    CIPS up and ready to go.

    http://sgtreport.com/

    Oct 10, 2015 10:48 AM

    And for anyone curious about Rick Rules comments about Bob Quartermain’s company Pretium ( PVG) who just and continues hitting Bonanza grade results 70-200 oz/ ton, yes ounces per ton, not gm/ton.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:55 AM

      These results are meant to bamboozle, not actually real.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:08 AM

        This isn’t another Bre-X is it? Quartermain has a good reputation.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:20 AM

          I would be very surprised, Bonzo. I don’t know him very wel, but I do know his reputation.

            Oct 10, 2015 10:14 PM

            If it really IS a silver mine, as the objecting professional opinion contends, then the enriched portion of the mine, which is the gold, should run out soon enough. Look for more spectacular after spectacular, then nothing.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:44 PM

            Hope you are right, Al. I plan to buy more PVG if it pulls back to 5.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:14 AM

        I actually looked at the drill results in detail from the most recent 08Oct news release. The 8,600 g/ ton numbers are real, they are just over a much smaller width (interval = 0.5 meters) within a larger core sample. Visible gold (not scrapings from a wedding ring, if you know what I mean)

        So, in my opinion, there is no Bamboozling.

        Brian

          Oct 10, 2015 10:16 AM

          U-666 -70 / 315

          From / To / Interval (meters) / Gold (g/ton / Silver (g/ ton)

          1,267.45 1,269.50 2.05 133.76 1,058 1 sample cut

          1,267.45 1,269.50 2.05 2,100 1,058 uncut

          1,267.45 1,267.95 0.50 8,600 4,330

            Oct 10, 2015 10:19 PM

            Gold mines don’t come with these kinds of grades. They are imaginary at best. A pay streak is BOUND to be short lived. What’s the REAL grade, btw?

    Oct 10, 2015 10:40 AM

    Beware of The Little Bull Market in precious metals, has the bottom really been reached. Factory production is way down, the indebtedness of all nation’s is the highest it has ever been, tax loss season is almost here, unemployment is much worse than the government statistics say. I also have serious doubts about the ability of the Federal Reserve system to prevent a money panic when banks are toppling.

    We are seeing a major change in the structure of the World’s economy. If the conventional markets tank the prices for commodities we are now seeing could seem very lofty in comparison. At this juncture I would wait because if this is a new market it will lift all boats but if it isn’t the heartache will be plenty, don’t be fooled again by the promises of quick riches because if the conventional markets crash they will take everything with them. Now is a time for waiting…………?

      Oct 10, 2015 10:17 AM

      We are seeing a major change in the entire geopolitical landscape it seems to me!

        Oct 10, 2015 10:23 AM

        I could not agree more, Dave.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:29 PM

          No. The deflation ‘bogey man’ has to be put to rest. Sure, the stock market will sell off, but if you haven’t noticed, commodities have been bearish for four years. The way to tell if gold will advance is consistent declines of interest rates.

          There is no stronger fundamental than negative interest rates for gold.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:22 AM

      You could be right Mr TRACY, but At this time I am on the other side.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:50 AM

    Yahoo Finance reporting DUST in the top 10 worst performing stocks this week. Yahoo also reports gold leveraged ETFs are on fire.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:03 AM

    Docs and Gary. What sleeper gold penny stock in your opinion has the potential to go thermo nuclear in the next gold bull run?

      Oct 10, 2015 10:54 AM

      JASON………Belkin has some suggestions………

        Oct 10, 2015 10:55 AM

        going to cost you $900 to find out…………..

          Oct 10, 2015 10:08 AM

          Not true; I received a free (teaser) Belkin report, offered several weeks ago to KER listeners, that named specific companies.. I found it quite informative; it bolstered my own choices for specific companies to INVEST in (not trade). I did not d=feel the need to be updated on my companies, so I decided not to actually sign up.
          Brian

      Oct 10, 2015 10:56 AM

      JASON

      If you are looking for “thermo nuclear,” then try uranium stocks (ha, ha, ha). As for gold stocks, I cannot help you (investing is certainly NOT my area of expertise – do NOT take my investment advice unless we are talking on a spiritual level).

      Oct 10, 2015 10:57 AM

      I don’t trade individual stocks. Too much company specific risk, especially in small juniors. Those things are like running through the dynamite factory with your hair on fire.

      Yes you may survive, but you’re still an idiot…

        Oct 10, 2015 10:24 AM

        Thought provoking comment there, Gary. And a great analogy.

        bb
        Oct 10, 2015 10:26 AM

        lol, Gary, and your living in Vegas?

        Oct 10, 2015 10:33 AM

        I think you just called OWL and idiot…………..?

          Oct 10, 2015 10:48 AM

          — and the point is …?

          Oct 10, 2015 10:03 PM

          He called a lot of very successful investors idiots. At least we know where he stands on the subject.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:15 PM

          Where, I missed that. But then again he could be correct!

            Oct 10, 2015 10:28 PM

            Al, the comment above at 8:57. It was indirect but he got us both! 😐 😉

            Oct 10, 2015 10:31 PM

            LOOK UP OWL……….

            Oct 10, 2015 10:40 PM

            Why? Many times when I do I get splattered#

            Oct 10, 2015 10:34 PM

            gary mentioned something about “hair being on fire”…..so, you must have missed it

            Oct 10, 2015 10:39 PM

            Hard to agree in that some of us have had six figure profits in that sector.
            I don’t that Gary meant a personal attack. Just expressing his personal opinion.

            Oct 10, 2015 10:59 PM

            does gary think BELKIN is an idiot…….?

            Oct 10, 2015 10:04 PM

            Not trying to cause a problem, just wondering what the thoughts were going forward.

            Oct 10, 2015 10:10 PM

            I agree Al.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:40 AM

        The nano-cap juniors are my favorite but they aren’t for active traders or those who don’t want to learn about the space. The fact that the majority of investors feel the way Gary does about them is a good thing.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:07 PM

          $900? I planned on plunking down $1000 like I did on ERBB. I sold too early and only made 500% profit.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:50 PM

          Rob McEwen has 75 million shares of MUX and he is no idiot. He may be 50 million bucks in the red right now, but those shares will be worth a billion one day.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:12 AM

      Here are some good stocks under a buck for the next bull run: AXU, NSRPF, TGD, MUX

        Oct 10, 2015 10:30 PM

        BB…..DO you own any of the mentioned stocks?

          bb
          Oct 10, 2015 10:45 PM

          Im sure you know Frank, should a bull in gold actually start, anything still breathing will be good. lol

          Lots more of course, but the kitco list alone will be 50 winners for every one that does nothing.

          Anyone in the sector will look like a genius.

            Oct 10, 2015 10:57 PM

            You are correct bb……

            Oct 10, 2015 10:59 PM

            IF, as Belkin says, the hedge funds start looking FOR VALUE., (since they are so beaten up)….they this will push all sunken ships to the surface.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:58 AM

          Yes, I own them all, and many more that are over a buck like AG, HL, IAG, EGO, EXK, PPP, PVG, SAND, PAAS, NGD, KGC, AUY, etc. Oh, VGZ is about .30. I forgot to mention that one. I own it too. Gary Savage is right. I’ve felt like an idiot for 4 years but every dog has his day, and mine is coming. When gold reaches 5K I’ll feel like a genius.

    JIM
    Oct 10, 2015 10:25 AM

    DOC:

    On the 08/28/15 KER, you said you thought silver would hit $12.50-13.00 by October or November. Are your technicals still showing silver reaching these levels before the end of 2015? Also, with the possibility of both a PM decline & tax loss selling upcoming, does SLW @ $10.00 look achievable by late December? Thanks!

    All The Best,

    JIM

    bb
    Oct 10, 2015 10:36 AM

    Seg 5, probly just me but I will have to listen more than once to follow.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:11 AM

      I listened to segment 5 half a dozen times first thing this morning just to get things clear in my mind about what was being said – but then I listen to all the talks with Gary, Chris Temple, Rick Ackerman, Doc, Avi and Michael Belkin several times.

      They always give food for thought – very enjoyable listening and always a good learning experience.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:58 PM

        Avi’s interview was not that great. He was inconsistent on his views from beginning to end. Every comment he made on gold, stocks and the dollar were in conflict with remarks he added later leaving one with no guidance whatsoever on what he really felt would happen. Talk about hedging all your bets and basically admitting in the process you have no idea what is about to happen next. He called both sides of each trade and even though he sounded confident he was not nearly as unconditional in a singular viewpoint as Michael Belkin whose interview I heard on KWN.

          bb
          Oct 11, 2015 11:20 AM

          Thought I said that. lol

          Oct 11, 2015 11:28 PM

          I am not sure you are really listening to me closely. I suggest you also look at my charts. They have been almost PERFECT.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:04 PM

            Respectfully Avi, your record is not perfect. Nobody has a perfect record in this business so don’t have your feelings hurt. You cannot call both sides of every trade and then afterwards claim that was better than 50/50.

            I get casino odds that are similar. Now if you want to make a call that is unequivocal in one direction or another that is another thing. Michael Belkin did it and he was not apologetic or waffling.

            But you don’t do that. And I know because I have been reading your work more than 5 years both here and at seeking Alpha. At best you get credit for being clever at self promotion and being a more competent writer and debater.

            But don’t try to bullshit me.

            Make your call (up or down, but not both)!

          Oct 12, 2015 12:38 AM

          I wonder who is doing the BS sir . . you have been reading me for more than 5 years? I have only been writing for 4. NICE!!

          So, I am not quite sure I can trust your comprehension.

          As for the “perfect” comment, take note I said we have been “almost” perfect when it comes to the SPX recently. Again, like I said before, I suggest you read what I say more carefully as we have been quite successful in this market.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:08 AM

            +1!!!

            bb
            Oct 12, 2015 12:48 AM

            4 years,5 years, kinda splitting hairs I think.
            “trust comprehension”? Avi, no offence, but Listener has exactly the kind of comprehension an investor should be interested in.

            Avi, Listener is not argueing with you, he is merely saying you are saying both up and down, which is why I said “need to listen more than once to follow”. (not to say both directions are not possible)

            And yes Listener, I said that lol, your articulation blows me away but its not my fault you cant read between the line. lol

            Oct 12, 2015 12:01 PM

            What “listener” has always been very good at is misrepresenting people’s words.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:03 PM

            “MORE THAN 5 years” is not splitting hairs.

            bb
            Oct 12, 2015 12:15 PM

            Mathew, Im not going to argue with you.
            I will suggest that you might actually read what your commenting on.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:42 PM

            Great idea bb. And while he is doing that, Avi can go back and listen to his own garbled show.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:42 PM

            I thought Avi was very clear in what he was saying – just my two cents.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:41 AM

    NWO gonna short the market’s down 20%. IMF gonna give Uncle Mao status. Aunt B gonna announce QE4 and then it’s off to da moon. DOW 20k, NASDAQ 6k, S&P 3k, NYSE (who cares?). Just my 2 cents.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:57 AM

      JASON

      Who are you referring to when you say NWO (New World Order)? Who exactly is the NWO?

        bb
        Oct 10, 2015 10:24 AM

        Bentnail, little help I know, but I have read an article or two that names people.
        Guess Im just sayin who these people are is out there.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:34 PM

          BB

          I am just putting out my feelers to see what the common view on this subject is. I am not necessarily in agreement with many people on this issue. I for one do not trust much of the alternative media and am convinced that the rabbit hole is far deeper than we are being led to believe (i.e. Rockefellers control the world). The hole is MUCH DEEPER than that in my honest opinion – that is just surface fluff that’s being used to deceive the masses (IMO).

      Oct 10, 2015 10:26 AM

      Jason, from what I know, I happen to agree with you.

    PF
    Oct 10, 2015 10:10 AM

    Some of the things Trader Vic said about China is wrong:

    1) “the economy has been declining for two years”
    (No, it has not. The rate of growth is declining but the economy is still growing)

    2) After doing a Google search, I could not find this August 28th Financial Times article on China’s reserve status that Vic referenced. I did find a September 28th article by the Financial Times that suggests that the IMF vote will be delayed until 2016.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2a902ec0-6596-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3oBI2DU93

    Oct 10, 2015 10:20 AM

    No mention of Syria in the blog so far until this sentence. No mention of it in the segment titles. I am just going to check out segment 7.

    I wonder if Putin is going to put in the long term top for the US dollar, regardless of inflation/deflation?

    Oct 10, 2015 10:25 AM

    I was disappointed in segment 7. It was all all about people. A nation of ‘men’ and not a nation of laws.

    Maybe the discussion is irrelevant. I remember the conspiracy theorists postulating there might not be an election in 2008 and the same in 2012 for one reason or another. It seems to me that the possibility of WW3 in the next year or at least a major geopolitical shift in the coming months which seems to be accelerating as I write could result in a suspended election this time for 2016. Even if it does not, the changes in the next 12 months mean that any forecast made now is redundant.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:28 AM

      Anything is possible, Dave. That is why I listen to everyone.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:34 AM

    Some shocking headlines at kingworld. They have had the same shocking headlines for years. Always bullish. I have not looked at their site in years:

    Top Advisor To Sovereign Wealth Funds Says Gold And Gold Stocks To Shock Investors By Becoming The New Momentum Plays

    Is This The Most Shocking Chart In The History Of The Gold Market?

    Fleckenstein – Gold Is Headed Higher But The Stock Market Will Roll Over, Hit New Lows And Accelerate To The Downside

    Man Who Advises Top Sovereign Wealth Funds In The World Warns The Price Of Gold Is About To Be Unleashed!
    Richard Russell: WARNING – People Need To Be Prepared For Some Shockingly Negative News
    Gerald Celente – The Elites Are Setting The Public Up For A Financial Wipeout

      Oct 10, 2015 10:30 AM

      We will look into that Dave.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:30 AM

      if YOU have not looked at it in years, how do you know it is….”Always bullish”

        Oct 10, 2015 10:41 PM

        They will never go bearish. I used to see the site year after year. They only push gold and never the general market.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:55 PM

          I can not say I disagree, after following it for several years myself. Always glad to hear from others.

          Oct 10, 2015 10:31 PM

          Are you referring to King World News, Paul L?

          bb
          Oct 10, 2015 10:55 PM

          Always “shocking” Paul, I like the occasional interview tho, PCR for one.
          But Sprott,Embry,Rule..broken records, actually a lot of “broken records” over there.
          Buy,buy,buy,pump,pump,pump………its a living I guess.
          And one day they will be right, the headline will be, “(place name here) called it years before it happened” lol.

            Oct 10, 2015 10:25 PM

            Quite true!

    Oct 10, 2015 10:07 AM

    Al, and team, do you have anyone you can call on to explain what is happening with this explosion in reverse REPOs that the Federal Reserve has being doing?

    Oct 10, 2015 10:09 AM

    The dollar should head in to the 85 to 88 area. Forge what the experts calling for 120. That could never happen as that would wipe out the profits for major US companies and crash the markets. The dollar will be pushed down hard to set up for the 1st interest rate hike.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:46 AM

    Except to hedge a much greater bullish position, I don’t know why anyone would want to be short gold here.
    http://schrts.co/FfFUYZ

    Oct 10, 2015 10:10 PM

    Commodities are about to rally:
    http://schrts.co/gXzJgT

    Oct 10, 2015 10:17 PM

    Martin Armstrong saw a POTENTIAL 3rd party candidate. Trump could possibly go 3rd party IF he is not the nominee.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:30 PM

      I do not agree Terry, but what the heck, the world is getting crazier each day!

      Oct 10, 2015 10:12 PM

      Trump can be no more than a third limb of what is really a one party system.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:59 PM

        Anybody seen a THREE HEADED SNAKE……………

          Oct 10, 2015 10:30 PM

          Only in Greencastle, Indiana!

            Oct 10, 2015 10:39 PM

            We caught that one last week and are mailing it to the governor along with a message from you, hope you do not mind me using your name,,,,seems you pull some weight around Greencastle……they think you are a Movie star or big time celeb., big time radio host. They play Kerreports after every ball game they win.

            Oct 10, 2015 10:27 PM

            Right!

            Oct 10, 2015 10:44 PM

            Oh, the guys at the Pizza hut said hi………….seems they remember you,,,something about skipping out without paying.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:32 PM

        that is possibly very accurate, Matthew.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:21 PM

        The tripod congress.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:37 PM

    Silver just had its best close since June and looks like it’s getting ready to take on the next resistance. It might need to consolidate the recent gains for a few days first but the next decent move should be up.
    http://schrts.co/McIIZu

    Oct 10, 2015 10:29 PM

    Anybody check out BILL STILLS comments on the ICELANDIC BANKING SYSTEM, at FSN

    Oct 10, 2015 10:54 PM

    BILL GROSS….Sues PIMCO for $200mill…….says the “cabal” pushed him out and wanted his money and bonus………(funny)…….what cabal…..read at jdsmindset

      Oct 10, 2015 10:55 PM

      maybe bentnail might be interested in this one….maybe a connect to NWO

    Oct 10, 2015 10:57 PM

    I’m with Gary. Professional kleptomaniac Granny Yellen & Co. have fallen off the wagon and are back at the quantitative thieving. I like Al’s reference to game of Monopoly – when the game is over, one man owns a bunch of hotels but no one has the money to rent a room.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:15 PM

    Respectfully to all the metal heads praying for a bull market. Good luck. This IS the environment for sidways movement for a long time. I saw the bull end and called it. That was the end and bears last for years. Look at you historical charts. Theres no big turn coming for China or the emerging economies. We are in stagflation. You hold your gold and what little inflation does occur erodes Golds value over the long term. The volitilty has to be traded. Gold stocks look productive and mining cost have dropped. Theres your only hope for a decent move. After that get short. Gold should be traded with a bearish bias. One analyst i trust implicitly sade in 2009. ” gold has a shot at $1500 to $2000 and then head for the hills as we are in for anther multi decade bear market. Hes called every turn on the way down. Aug we went bully on bullion for the pending rally. We will be sighting for a top.
    Good luck.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:22 PM

      Maybe, Bill

        Oct 11, 2015 11:42 AM

        Big Al. I do my own homework but its always trumped by analysts. They can give a big picture based on many many numbers and trends in all the big economies. Their rarly off. Anyhow they are unrelated and no nothing of each other and are both calling for the exact same things. There is no dooms day crap going to happen. Its possible but you cant call that until your right on the edge. There are so few people that can actually make you money or have a clue where we are going its shocking. Lots of talking heads happy to give their worthless 2 bits though. Lol Yip my guys call saw a major top that was going yo blow out the market in gold back 2009 and said we are heading for a 20′- 30 year bear market.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:50 AM

          I know a lot of people were ultra bearish in 2008 and 2009 on gold and predicted massive bear market in gold. These include our Rick A here. However, these people were proven wrong in the next 3 years and missed the nice bull run in 2011. Even now, the gold price is still far higher than the price when they were convinced about the bear market, especially in Canadian $ term. In the next 20-30 years, I am sure as day and night that they will be proven wrong again. I hope they stay on their cash position and get wiped out by the negative real interest rate.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:17 PM

            Yes 2009 was not the top and we were bullish to the top.
            Theres alot of great long term places for cash. Gold is not one of them.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:31 PM

            But why did you say 2009? It makes me wonder whether your wizard is one of those. If you give me his name, I can check his record.

            Gold and silver is the best inflation hedge and we are coming to an abusive money printing era. Mark my words.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:40 PM

            Off course stock and real estate are good investment too but for them to really out perform inflation, you need to have healthy economy growth or population growth but we are lacking the real growth in the next few decades at least in NA.

            BTW, I also saw the top for gold and silver in 2011 and sold my PM stocks and silver at the top but I got back in the last few years believing the inflation is ahead of us. It is common sense which is out of line with modern economics , maybe.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:11 PM

          Bill: You are officially the Kereport Attack Chihuahua. Your constant posts are remarkable only for the total lack of insight that you offer. You share with everyone what your official GURUs have to say just as if anyone here actually cares while badmouthing everyone you disagree with. Or who your buddies disagree with, you are little more than a parrot.

          You were convinced the dollar couldn’t go down. It did. You were convinced the stock market could only go up, it failed. And you are constant in your condemnation of anyone who advises owning gold. That makes you wrong, wrong and wrong. Why don’t you go back and suck up to your GURU who claims to have invented crutons and his mother invented belly dancing? The dumbest guy on this board understand that Mike B is a total scam. Except for you of course.

          Stick with your long dollar position and have a wonderful day.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:19 PM

      GDXJ priced in gold is up 18% since the August low.
      http://schrts.co/ubGAwO

      Oct 11, 2015 11:04 AM

      Unfortunately charts only tell you what happened in the past. Unless you assume trend just continues and never turns, they have reference value at best. We never see an environment where a combination of low interest/mass money coexists with deflation. Never in human history. Otherwise we have got a magic wand to get rich with no extra work. Some people equate economic collapse with deflation and not knowing economy can collapse with faster in inflation. Look at weimar and zimbabwe. A multi decade bear market for gold is not possible considering the money supply will increase another ten twenty folds by the current rate. In addition, the money printed in the last few years is still fermenting.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:29 AM

        Interesting comment, D

        Oct 11, 2015 11:43 AM

        The charts have great value due to the fact that there is nothing new under the sun from the macro to the micro (history repeats and does so fractally).

        Re: “Some people equate economic collapse with deflation and not knowing economy can collapse with faster in inflation.”
        —-
        +1, I couldn’t agree more. We are not about to get another 2008.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:25 PM

      BILL….Name the analyst .

        Oct 11, 2015 11:19 PM

        I did numerous times before. Theres acouple others but their info is copy right protected.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:42 PM

          Is fund managers and analysts want their name known to the public? They would pay you for the publicity.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:27 PM
    Oct 10, 2015 10:38 PM

    The current action is not bearish.
    http://schrts.co/UMKM9n

    Oct 10, 2015 10:07 PM

    GDX at Fibonacci fan resistance:
    http://schrts.co/su1iHd

    Oct 10, 2015 10:15 PM
    Oct 10, 2015 10:25 PM

    TSX Venture Exchange at fork resistance (which I think will fail):
    http://schrts.co/0NQ0P4

    Oct 10, 2015 10:40 PM

    God help us if feminist Hillary is the one with her finger on the nuclear button. Putin won’t take her seriously, and Hillary will want to prove she can start a war as well as a man can.

      Oct 10, 2015 10:57 PM

      Chester,

      The United States is simply a corporation that is a financial borg harvesting machine.

      There is no rule of law and there certainly is no representative Constitutional governing body.

      People like Hillary Clinton, Obama and all the rest of the political filth of the nation are simply harvesting the last few recoverable assets of wealth that remains to be siphoned off.

      Once that is complete, there will be no need for the nuclear option. Game, set, match!

      That day is close at hand.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:24 AM

        Vortex,
        You are correct regarding the corporate vermin. I don’t think it’s game over here just yet. Even though 98% are still in a trance, they are waking up in large numbers right now. I have hope.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:32 AM

          As do I Chart!

      Oct 11, 2015 11:45 AM

      Great comment Mr Field!

    Oct 10, 2015 10:04 PM

    Officially printing a trillion fiat units per year.
    Destroying nations,regions and cultures across the globe on their mission to destroy the world with unlimited funds sourced from their destruction gig.
    No wonder the elites wanted to take down the POG to levels they could fully participate in.
    Comex has been such a full and willing partner in their agenda.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:52 PM

    Thanks once again for a great weekend show guys.
    Admittedly I did skip the final two sements as US politics doesn’t really interest me. I did very much enjoy the 6 prior segments though.
    Very glad to see Avi on again.
    Cheers.

    Oct 10, 2015 10:01 PM

    Sounds like there is unanimity this weekend amongst the crowd of interviews that a gold bull market has started. And I can’t blame anyone for having strong feelings given some of the recent action because some of the charts do look quite promising.

    But examined on a weekly chart gold is far from breaking out so it is premature to call the gold bear dead until we exceed the mid 1200’s at a minimum. That is another 90 to 100 dollars from where we sit today.

    While I am as intrigued as anyone here by the price action and what looks like a trend getting under way I will keep a cautious stance until a confirming signal gets triggered on the weekly chart.

    All that means in real terms is that any stock buying I do between now and then will continue to be treated as bear market trades. Buying what is moving up and bailing out when it looks tired or overbought. I sure as hell have no interest in getting caught in another downdraft.

    And after four years of this action we already know how quickly our certainty about the direction can get its face smashed on the rocks of reality and have every tooth in its sorry head busted to smithereens.

    Call me cautious but optimistic. I don’t want to miss the action…..

    But I won’t be getting married to any young bull either!

      Oct 10, 2015 10:06 PM

      Both Avi & Jeffrey came across (to me) as cautiously optimistic….but concerned about the next week in gold.
      So many technicians seem divided.
      There are those like Gary who are 90% sure its now a bull ?
      And there are those who still feel we have at least one or more downlegs to go ?

      Should be an interesting week
      Cheers.

        Oct 10, 2015 10:45 PM

        And an interesting few months too. We are heading towards a seasonally good time for metals so on the face of things the bulls will appear to be correct if all plays out to script. I would suggest remaining cautious though. We have seen new year strength play out in the past only to suffer reversals. While the gold bulls will as usual be declaring victory and patting themselves on the back for their chronic stopped-clock “its bottomed” calls we could still find ourselves heading to lower prices by the middle of summer. Some guys here are asserting the bear is dead based on hourly charts for crying out loud. As if those are doing anything more than offering near term trading signals. All I can add is that we had best keep our own compass as the bugs once again come out from under their rock and and start loudly mocking everyone here that they are about to miss the gold train simply because they feel distrustful.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:25 AM

          There is imo still no bullish confirmation at present imo.

          That old song/video clip by Scatterbrain – “Down with the ship” springs to mind for those who are bullish atm.

          Tread carefully (or be nimble) if so.
          Cheers.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:40 AM

          You are one astute guy, Listener.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:25 AM

    So here is my “Chart of the day”.

    This one will be most interesting to those deflationists in the crowd who somehow just KNOW that there will be a vast debt reconciliation in the next few years but are not quite able to put a date on when it will happen or explain in layman’s terms why it will happen.

    And this chart is also going to be supportive for the cycles guys who insist that history repeats in fairly steady rhythms whether most average people know it or not. So what is it? Well, this one is called “The Share of Household Wealth comparing the .1% to the the bottom 90%” and it is a doozy. (see chart #3 of the article linked below).

    What this chart says is that the system begins to come apart once wealth inequality hits an extreme and the wealthiest .1% of the population control roughly 25% of all national income and assets including rents, interest, dividends, stocks etc.

    It is exactly what happened in the days leading up to the crash of 29 at which point all hell was unleashed and financial assets of every kind from stocks to bonds to lands were repriced back to levels seen many years earlier.

    Basically, there was no refuge and the wealthiest lost the most as the pendulum swung and a new era got underway where the US embarked on a multi-decade period of middle class growth that only ended in the early 80’s.

    Have a look. Then get out your trusty plastic rulers, run them across the chart, and see if you can divine the turning point of the next bond market / stock market collapse based on the historical chart of wealth inequality versus where we sit today.

    I think most of you will agree with two points that are pretty obvious from the graph. The first point….that we are not quite there yet. The second, that we are getting pretty close to the economic endgame so many have been fretting about for years.

    The good news is that there is still time to prepare. I suggest we use that time wisely.

    Wealth Inequality Charts and article — Inequality.org — A project of the Institute for Policy Studies
    http://inequality.org/wealth-inequality/

      Oct 11, 2015 11:38 AM

      Thanks Listener!

        Oct 11, 2015 11:17 AM

        You are very welcome Al. Glad to hear you enjoyed it.

        I thought that chart was fascinating when I first came across it this afternoon while out on a random walk on the news. It displays classic elements that every chart technician would be familiar with and it has a beautiful symmetry that is compelling.

        There are the usual double tops, double bottoms, higher highs and lows. Even V-shaped recoveries. So it just goes to prove that even a topic like wealth inequality can be charted in a way that is meaningful to technical people.

        What we are most concerned with here though is the intersection of the yellow and blue lines where the 90% line plunges below the 1% line. The charts last record is for 2012 and it is probably fair to assume the crossover has already taken place.

        It is a death cross if you are part of the majority…a golden cross if you are the 1%.

        I think it is very revealing. What it tells us is that there is about to be a sharp acceleration of wealth accumulation in favour of one group and possibly serious losses for the other as a transfer takes place in the financial world.

        It could well herald a huge bull market run in equities though that will terminate at some point around where the 1% have accumulated in excess of 30% of the assets the study used as a measure.

        Why 30%? Well, if we look closely we can see that the lines of intersection are ascending with each cycle as are the peaks / valleys in wealth inequality. You can’t go too crazy drawing conclusions with only a 100 years of data but the chart is VERY revealing to my way of seeing things.

        I think it says we are about to embark on a serious rise in asset values even as unemployment is again on the rise. I think it means we encounter difficult economic times but in spite of this stocks will soar.

        How else would there be a way for the majority to lose wealth while the few become substantially richer? If anyone else can draw a conclusion from this graphic data I would love to hear it.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:36 PM

        The Menace of Egalitarianism

        “Equality cannot be imagined outside of tyranny,” said Montalembert. It was, he said, “nothing but the canonization of envy, [and it] was never anything but a mask which could not become reality without the abolition of all merit and virtue.” – See more at: http://www.thedailybell.com/editorials/36571/Llewellyn-H-Rockwell-Jr-The-Menace-of-Egalitarianism/#sthash.7nBozhwR.dpuf

        (Thanks to 321gold(dot)com)

          Oct 12, 2015 12:40 PM

          The philosophy of equity versus inequity is not my concern in the prior post. I am referring to chart dynamics and cycle theory.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:33 AM

    That curious story about Matt Drudge saying that alternative news websites could be shut down if they even linked to others articles and thus broke copyright law sounds to me like a lot of fear being created for pretty much nothing.

    First of all, in order for copyright to be infringed upon there must be someone willing to object that their work has been stolen by the use of a link to their sites and stories. But that really makes no sense. As far as I can see the vast majority of news portals, private internet sites and news generators are happy to have traffic directed their way.

    Obviously the way around such risk of being shut down by copyright breach is that every site offering content will have to state its policy up front. For example, if the Drudge Report explicitly notes that all its articles may be reposted, copied, linked etcetera then there would be no breach of any law after someone took and used their material.

    Aggregators would catch on quickly and would stop linking to any sites that prohibited use of their original source material and stories. It only means that more traffic would be diverted to sites that were willing to share stories and articles but that original content providers would see higher subscriptions and revenues if their materials were deemed proprietary or protected.

    What is wrong with that?

    I think Drudge was being a little alarmist. The internet is not about to be shut down because laws will become more restrictive but rather the nature of it will change because some discipline will be imposed on those who essentially steal the work of others.

    Personally, I favour copyright protection. Having an internet connection is not a defacto license to steal. The idea behind such laws (if they came into being) would be to support the efforts of the people, journalists, analysts, writers, artists and many other creators who produce original work for which they seek some form of compensation.

    That is their job. It is how they earn their bread and butter. Why should the Drudges of the world be able to harvest anything they want at will without offering any compensation whatsoever to those who create the material in the first place?

    You want to know whose toes are being stepped on these days? It is the sites that provide research, reports, analysis, in depth news, market insight and so many other services that involve dozens, if not thousands of people working hard to create.

    So the internet is going to have to police itself and sites that steal or violate copyright law will face consequences. The actions of millions of people cannot be individually controlled but the content of the worlds most popular news sharing sites can be managed through legal instruments.

    Yes, that would put a chill on some of the free form sharing of news that we see today but what it really means is that we start respecting the business of the media in all its forms whether that be arts, entertainment, investing, drama, live reporting or visual media.

    One guys personal freedom to copy and paste should not be at the expense of another who sweat to create the work.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:36 AM

      Sure, but your point about increased traffic is the name of the game.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:09 AM

      Drudge asked why the media ignores Hillary’s lovers. Google it. When this comes out after she is nominated the Democrats will be sorry they picked her. Will Bernie or Joe bring this up in the debates?

        Oct 11, 2015 11:08 AM

        Joe in the debate?

        bb
        Oct 11, 2015 11:32 PM

        lol BB, I didn’t know Hillary was lesbian.
        Could cost her some religious votes.
        I think its funny tho.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:59 PM

          That Hillary is a lesbian would be an advantage in the Democratic primaries, but not in the general election.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:48 AM

    Good post A Listener ;

    The key point is to provide a link;
    which some on this site seem to be incapable of doing – stubborn?

    Some sites specifically say (and I paraphrase);
    ‘Copy and paste to your heart’s content, but if you don’t provide a link-back, we gonna slap yo pee-pee’.

    The real wording on one:
    “All of our articles are available for republishing as long as you provide a link back to the original article.”

    http://www.tsinetwork.ca/daily/mining-stocks/mining-stocks-copper-giant-freeportmcmoran-activist-pressure-tough-commodities-market/

      Oct 11, 2015 11:31 AM

      Thanks Irwin. We might ask Agatha to leave a link instead of an entire article. Who knows when trouble will come knocking. As mentioned before, Harvey Organ was shut down for copyright violations so its a real concern already….not just some abstract worry.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:46 AM

        Yes, and there’s a copy & paste below which doesn’t show up in a google search, so it’s safe to assume that it is not only © but also proprietary and protected.

        -poster beware!

          Oct 11, 2015 11:04 PM

          Yup, I have noticed those too. Part of a subscription service in Canada. The poster never mentions the name although I know who it is (but won’t say). Its not cool. Imagine how Belkin would feel (for example) if one of his subs was reposting his proprietary work on this site. Ouch. He would be pretty unhappy and nobody would blame him.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:44 PM

            I can name names:

            Peter Imhof
            Allan Jacobs
            Jean-Francois Tardif

            Oct 11, 2015 11:47 PM

            Wow, you are good!

            Oct 11, 2015 11:10 PM

            haha! not really anyone can name names:

            Irwin Oostindie
            Irwin Macuha
            Irwin Jacobs
            Irwin William Davis

            Oct 11, 2015 11:38 PM

            Sorry a listener. I dont subscribe to anyone.
            I can down load a pdf and shoot it to anyone.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:35 PM

          Its not copy right. Omg. Its public.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:52 PM

            “public” doesn’t protect you.

            All the posts on this page are “public”, but they’re still ©

            Look at the very bottom of this page; you will see:
            © 2015 – Disclaimer – Login

            Oct 11, 2015 11:28 PM

            Don’t worry about me Irwin I know him personally….He doesn’t give a sht.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:31 AM

    Something is going on with the boys on Capitol Hill.
    When you have guys that backstabbed, brown nosed, borrow and steal to get to the top ( speaker of the house ) and then turn down the ..job..??! It’s Very Odd!

    Only the US government can promote someone for doing absolutely nothing. Look at Paul Ryan. The chairman of the ways and means comity. He’s done ” Nothing “!

      Oct 11, 2015 11:31 AM

      Great point Chart.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:31 AM

    Nobody is talking about Syria, Iraq and Iran, new friends of Russia …
    It seems the US is now in full damage control mode.
    The US, in conjunction with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, attempted to train and support Sunni extremists to overthrow the Assad regime.
    Now the U.S. can’t protect its secret rebel allies.
    Obama is unwilling to risk World War III just to stop a Qatar gas pipeline to Europe.
    And now the Russian president Putin is going to meet the Saudi Defense minister Mohammed Bin Salman on sunday (source Kremlin).

    Let’s hope it does not turn like the last time Lavrov met the Foreign minister …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHj5d-Fxibc

      Oct 11, 2015 11:30 AM

      Shows you where our country is today Gabriel.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:28 PM

      Another CIA screw up. They always busy trying to overthrow governments instead of working with existing government and it usually blows up in their face and they often end up supporting future terrorists.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:33 AM

    If the US never opens a budget, maybe he will be president. Yay…

    bj
    Oct 11, 2015 11:50 AM

    You know we’re in trouble when those elected officials who advocate honest government and responsible spending are labeled “radicals” ( !!! ) while their ‘peers’ insist on omnibus spending bills and continuing resolutions instead of performing their fiduciary responsibilities to the taxpayers by voting on each departments spending appropriations and authorization bill on it’s own merit as a stand alone bill. Thus the art of compromise has degenerated into compromising the integrity of the process.

    The beauty of the omnibus spending bills is not no crony is left behind. The beast is the debt ceiling that’s grown into an ugly monstrosity that feeds on itself via debt serving. The head of the beast was/is our wimpy Speaker of the House who ‘goes along’ with runaway spending to ‘get along’ with the big government Democrats and the RINOs (who lie like hell to get elected and then spend like crazy once in office.)

      Oct 11, 2015 11:11 AM

      Right as rain BJ

    bb
    Oct 11, 2015 11:02 AM

    Good thinking Listener.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:32 AM

      Cheers bb (are you referring to the wealth inequality chart)?

        bb
        Oct 11, 2015 11:43 PM

        On October 11, 2015 at 5:33 am,
        A Listener says:

        That curious story about Matt Drudge saying that alternative news websites could be shut down if they even linked to others articles and thus broke copyright law sounds to me like a lot of fear being created for pretty much nothing.

        My comment ended up a ways from your post I was commenting on.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:07 AM

    Al,
    what do you imply..?
    do you believe the US has done anything positive in the ME … say in the past 40 yrs….??
    Is the Saudi regime better than the Assad…??
    thanks

      Oct 11, 2015 11:09 AM

      I am certainly not implying that!

    Oct 11, 2015 11:30 AM

    USD – going down…
    http://schrts.co/7Dtunq

    Oct 11, 2015 11:48 AM

    Big Al. On oil. Things that few even think about. And all the BS on the End Of Cheap oil, Peak oil people were spouting about! Lol Afordable energy is hear and along with new technologies. This will keep a lid on inflation. The theroy that many many were promoting about the orinting of dollars was WRONG. Jim Rogers and many others said run from the US as they are going to turn the dollar into confetti!. Yes lets move to China where big problem have arived including air you cant breath!! Checkout Rogers shorting the dollar call and now after a huge run up hes says he was long. His back door disclamer the he says hes a bad market timer is hilarious! WTF are you doing trading and telling people what to invest in?! “Bob Moriarty said the USD its used toilet paper. Lol. Howz that working out ? Its the loonie that crash along wilth a pile of othe currencies. Jim Sinclair, robert Pretcher, Harry Dent Are all clueless self promoters and their track recorcds suck.

    From my trusted and acurate source.
    We find it interesting that most people want the price of oil to go up. We hear from a lot of investors, oil company CEO’s, analysts, strategists etc. say that the price of oil will rise again, as it always does. We see many sell-side brokerage firms and oil companies forecasting a higher oil price ($60- $75 per barrel) for the next few years. Suncor, for example, recently stated that they invest for a 15% return (assuming $75 long term oil price). It’s interesting because prior to 2003, we remember everybody saying that oil would stay around $18 forever.
    There seems to be an inherent bias out there towards a higher oil price, despite the fact that global market dynamics have changed. In our opinion, the $100 oil days are a thing of the past for now and we think that it will take years before the price goes back to $75 again. People had a tough time adjusting to a change in supply/demand back in 2003, when there was strong demand and low growth in supply, and now seem to be looking in the rear view mirror. Today, we believe that a new paradigm has arrived. Demand growth for oil is slowing because of 1) the economic challenges many emerging markets such as China are facing, 2) an aging population in the developed world (older people drive less), 3) cars are much more efficient, we now have Tesla and huge growth in electric cars and 4) supply growth now thanks to new technology (multi-fracking) use for shale oil.
    When thinking about multi-fracking technology and its potential impact on supply growth moving forward it’s really quite simple. Let’s start with what it’s done for North America as it really hasn’t been used much elsewhere yet. U.S. production, for example, has increased by 1 mm barrels per day over the last 3 years before this recent correction in oil price. So if oil were to recover even to $70 per barrel (instead of $100), the rapid rise in production could resume in a matter of months.
    Efficiency improvements in shale oil have been around 20% per year for the last 4 years. In other words, producers of shale oil could have increased their production by 20% per year with the same amount of spending. The Raymond James Energy Team, who we view as one of the best, recently commented on U.S. operators response to low oil prices by saying: “The change created by U.S. oil and gas well-related efficiencies has been so dramatic that the single most important question that investors, economists and politicians should be asking is when will U.S. oil and gas well improvements end?”. The team from RJ also noted that the “sum of these U.S. oil well efficiency gains has led to a doubling in oil production per active rig in just the past three years and that they expect that to improve by at least another 50% over the next three years”. Our point here is that despite a lower oil price today, efficiency gains have been so dramatic that oil production could potentially grow at $50 oil. For example, if service prices dropped substantially (let’s say at least 10%) and with efficiency gains at 20%, at $70 oil (versus $100 we’ve had for past 3-4 years) U.S. oil producers might be able to resume their production growth. Even if the price of oil were to stay where it is now, U.S. and international producers are still able to make money in this environment. A recent article in the Financial Times stated that Rosneft’s cost of production had fallen to less than $3 per barrel due to the drop in the value of the rouble, down from $5 last year. Bottom line here is if oil stocks recover, we will probably be shorting more.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:07 PM

      Bill you seem to have a very good rear view mirror. I will quote you in the future. Do you still have some thing which is high now but will crash and stay low forever. Please give me a hint. The thing which exists may not all makes sense.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:51 AM

    There may be a typo lol iphone sucks to type out big one in a moving window.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:05 AM

    I don’t know what you’re getting at, Bill. The USD had never been so overblown on the upside and is deteriorating from what could have been a bullish consolidation. The daily and weekly charts are sells while the monthly is a strong avoid. I don’t know why pointing these things out means I’m getting excited.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:49 PM

      Ok my bad.
      The dollar has been higher in the past. It had a pretty big move because of commodities China and emerging market blowouts. That not reverting anytime soon and I dont care what the charts look like. The dollar is here to stay. The only think I can say is gold stocks look constructive. Cost for miners has fallen.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:07 PM

        The usd has been higher, for sure, but I don’t know if it has ever been so overbought on the monthly chart. It’s current purchasing power is not here to stay -not by a long shot.

          Oct 11, 2015 11:41 PM

          Agreed on overbought but bull markets tend to do that.
          All currencies are dying and have been for decades…wages also increased so no big deal….no so much these days ..

            Oct 11, 2015 11:18 PM

            It’s a very big deal for those who no longer earn a wage. Savers are being ripped off. Something is backwards and very wrong with a system/society that punishes virtue and rewards vice.

            Oct 11, 2015 11:31 PM

            Yes actually you nailed it there. Its a crime in that sense…Sad.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:10 AM

    The SLV:GLD 200 day moving average is pointing up for the first time in three years (bullish for the sector).
    http://schrts.co/tXf7l6

    Oct 11, 2015 11:37 AM

    It sure is interesting to see how many have suddenly switched over to the dollar bear camp in the last while. That is a big shift in sentiment judging by how many are saying the same thing. Even Michael Belkin who did an interview on KWN this week has turned to a dollar bull. So has Avi if I understood him. That came as a surprise. But there is still that lingering pattern on the Euro chart that has yet to play out and it may be signalling the opposite. We just won’t know until we get there how it will break out.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:38 AM

      Sorry…should have written that Belkin has turned to a dollar bear.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:26 PM

      I suggest you listen again . . calling for a rally over 100 is not exactly bearish.

      Oct 11, 2015 11:44 PM

      There is NOTHING to sugest fundamentaly that the dollar is about to revert to a bear.
      People look at chart trends that break and assume all sorts. Why are they not rich!? That doesn’t work period.

        Oct 12, 2015 12:31 AM

        There are times you reveal how you cannot find a single clue in a box of them. To say that the dollar fundamentally is not about to turn into a bear is simply absurd but all you are doing is parroting what others have told you. You wouldn’t recognize a bottom if one fell on you.

        The dollar is nothing more than the sweetest smelling turd in the punch bowl. With an economy of $17 trillion and obligations of over $200 trillion the simple choices are to inflate or default or tax to infinity. There are no other alternatives and those are the fundaments that you seemed to have totally missed.

        Why don’t you just go back to picking the wings off flies and telling people how smart you are and ignore economics until you start to understand even the basics without using a cheat sheet?

          bb
          Oct 12, 2015 12:15 AM

          Inflate, default, tax forever.
          I guess some sort of debt forgiveness would be a default.

          What about ending pesonal taxes altogether?
          We can print any money needed, no personal taxes might allow people to deal with their debt.

          hmmmm, I guess there is just no way out, seems funny tho that a situation doesn’t have a solution.

          Oct 12, 2015 12:08 PM

          The numbers are there but where you going to go….Your overthinking it.
          I was long USD short Gold stocks this year. Extremes happen so we are in a counter trend rally. The US has a GDP and a large military.
          I love the broken clock dollar doomsdayers…
          It sure as hell was not time a year ago to jump off the dollar…What don’t you go back and read what you wrote? You were totally out to lunch I think I pointed that out. You preferred another collapse in gold stocks?
          Take J Rogers and the confetti call. Now he says hes been long for a year plus… Total crap.

          Oct 12, 2015 12:17 PM

          PS Sitting around talking about for 15 years is your hobby?

          Oct 12, 2015 12:08 PM

          Bob you can look at the 18 tril and all the other sad numbers and tell me why the markets soared for years and the dollar took off? That’s pretty simple..right…
          Moneys going to where its BEST treated and the choices are few in a commodity COLLAPSE…
          If your hiding in the bunker with the rest of your gold bug friends you missed out on some huge moves…Your logic failed in this instance….
          I wouldn’t worry about to much.
          Watch “Cowspiracy” EVERYTHING is screw and EVERYONE is lying like a sack of sh*t.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:37 AM

    Keith Neumeyer: Silver To Outperform All Other Commodities
    10/10/15 (18 minutes)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKsjFYcOzFE

    Oct 11, 2015 11:57 AM

    Gold finished the week up $20.50 while Martin Armstrong’s computer predicted it would close down. Part of the gains had to have come from his followers covering their shorts.
    (Subscribers of his should correct me if I’m wrong since this is second-hand info for me.)

      Oct 11, 2015 11:10 PM

      Any idea what happened on 2015.75? Martin’s predictions usually have some visible firestorms. This time it seems nothing has happened. Maybe I am ignorant. Has he lost his marbles? 🙂 just kidding. I has a lot of respect for Martin.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:30 PM

        I actually have the most confidence in his big ECM turn dates and think that in the big picture 2015.75 will be seen as very accurate.

        Oct 11, 2015 11:06 PM

        On the ECM turn dates of September 30 2015 and October 1st, Russia bombed CIA backed rebels in Syria. Sine that was the major piece of international news we may infer it is a clue to what is coming based on Martins’ cycle theory although nobody really wants to talk about what it portends.

        Hopefully nothing comes of it (because it can’t be good)

          Oct 11, 2015 11:57 PM

          Make sense A.L.

          bb
          Oct 12, 2015 12:42 PM

          The “good guys” (that’s us) will withdraw.
          Australia already has.

          Just what it looks like to me.

    bb
    Oct 11, 2015 11:59 PM

    The “event” guys suggest this is a time when info becomes available that “raises consciousness”.
    Maybe Graham Hancock will finally be acknowledged.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:24 PM

    #200 – time for a commercial break
    ♫ ♫ Powder Milk Biscuits ♫ ♫
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TV_ypjxEB8

    Oct 11, 2015 11:32 PM

    DEBT 350% OF GDP………zerohedge

    Oct 11, 2015 11:15 PM

    ZERO HEDGE
    Viral Video Claims To Prove US Support Of ISIS In Iraq
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/11/2015 – 19:00
    Hayder al-Khoei, an associate fellow at Chatham House, notes that “another ‘U.S. supports ISIS’ video is going viral in Iraq.” In the video US “parachutes & supply crates” are seen in the area of Iraq’s Baiji refinery, a site of recurring ISIS incursions and battles. He adds that “Vids like this & others of helos flying above Hashd/ISF positions towards ISIS-held areas reinforce narrative that US supports ISIS in #Iraq.”

    Oct 11, 2015 11:37 PM

    Bill’s mystical (not) “trusted and acurate source” referenced at 10:48 am, can be found here, with quote lifted from under the heading “OIL”.

    http://www.firstasset.com/documents/0_managerCommentary_318.pdf?65001

    JFT STRATEGIES FUND (JFS.UN)
    MANAGER COMMENTARY
    August 2015
    Finally a correction; is it over?

      Oct 12, 2015 12:52 AM

      Irwin ya goof ball I posted a couple of very insightful managers last year…Numerous times…They have been 95% correct…

        Oct 12, 2015 12:56 PM

        Without proof – it never happened.
        ya goof ball

          Oct 12, 2015 12:02 PM

          Irwin are you serious?!
          You obviously missed what I posted last year? hell I was arguing with Bob and said he was dead wrong..and he was…
          At LEAST I posted some useful info and if you listen you avoided major losses…
          Wheres yours? Anything to contribute that actually is productive and makes money and avoids losses?!
          In fact I can go back 17 years…and JFT makes 99% of people look like fools….

            Oct 12, 2015 12:42 PM

            Missed what YOU posted LAST year?

            Hell man, I don’t even know what I posted last year. Ha!

            Why should I follow you around anyway – mr. mysterious?
            Post something substantial with something to back it up, and I might pay attention – NOT.

            Go FUDDLE yourself – I’m done with you – asshole.

    Oct 11, 2015 11:52 PM
    Oct 11, 2015 11:57 PM

    I am gone let you be the judge,
    Obama Defends The Failure Of His Syria Policy Before A Beligerent 60 Minutes

    “Steve Kroft: The last time we talked was this time last year, and the situation in Syria and Iraq had begun to worsen vis-à-vis ISIS. You had just unveiled a plan to provide air support for troops in Iraq, and also some air strikes in Syria, and the training and equipping of a moderate Syrian force. You said that this would degrade and eventually destroy ISIS.

    President Barack Obama: Over time.

    Steve Kroft: Over time. It’s been a year, and–

    President Barack Obama: I didn’t say it was going to be done in a year.

    Steve Kroft: No. But you said…

    President Barack Obama: There’s a question in here somewhere.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-11/obama-defends-failure-his-syria-policy-beligerent-60-minutes

      Oct 12, 2015 12:42 AM

      O…..going down in history as the worst president ever………..jmho

        bb
        Oct 12, 2015 12:31 PM

        I don’t see how any president could be worse than W Wilson.
        He opened Pandora with the federal reserve.

          Oct 12, 2015 12:23 PM

          Then the continuation of same , is acceptable?

            bb
            Oct 12, 2015 12:50 PM

            I didn’t say that, I just think w.w. is the culprit.
            Total treason, got a war thrown in for good measure.

            Oct 13, 2015 13:20 AM

            He was a want to be Dough Boy……….with a Methodist background, I think he was a minister to boot…………….lol

      Oct 12, 2015 12:27 AM

      October 11, 2015 at 11:07 pm,
      Dragonite says:
      Reply
      Where were you a year ago.l?! If you knew what I said and got the markets EXACTLY correct the past year. I was ridiculed for beating on the commodities pumpers gold bugs. I posted a short on oil I made in May/ June. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HOD.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89337149544&a=408879065&listNum=1
      I also said gold will have a good trade but people buy PM stocks calling for a bull market Are out if their gord.
      Why don’t you post some of your trades?
      Just because something crashes does not mean it goes straight back up. A crash can bring great trades but sure doesnt mean thats theres a new bull market ahead. So I did post that you could print those calls out and put them on the fridge. Boob Moriarty said gold was in a bull market and the Dow was about to crash last Nov. I said it was a stupid call with no fundemantal basis behind it. If he thinks the Dow crash recently hes off his rocker.
      Why dont you take a leap at a rolling donut?

      Oct 12, 2015 12:51 PM

      Recycled is just another word for being reborn, Andrew. If we had to choose a metaphor that would be my take. Better that than a sinking!

    CFS
    Oct 12, 2015 12:15 AM

    Jeff Diest was absolutely wrong about Ben Carson, who was asked what “HE” would do in the gun assassination situation.
    The ONLY viable defense against a lone pistol gunman in that situation is a mass rush at the gunman. A few might die, but a panic in the gunman who m,isdirect shots and he cannot kill all those who rush.

    Oct 12, 2015 12:00 AM

    “Did anyone notice this? The latest auction for the US Treasury’s three-month Bills went off at a zero percent yield. That’s a first, but more importantly, you know the old saying that “the Fed is always behind the curve”? Perhaps the FOMC will indeed vote to move rates afterall: down.”
    http://www.demeadville.com/101015_The_Gold_Update.html

      Oct 12, 2015 12:08 AM

      YES , I POSTED THAT LAST WEEK…………….

        Oct 12, 2015 12:16 AM
        Oct 12, 2015 12:19 AM

        Bill Holter……says in his article today…….that NORWAY AND SAUDI are saying no to dollar.

          Oct 12, 2015 12:04 AM

          Crook! Omg Him and Alex Jones are buddies. 98% of the people out there that are free are fools.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:09 AM

            Meant for Gabriel on Keiser above.
            FFM. Jappan and a zillion other countries say yes to the dollar.
            Or most would end up like Argentina.
            Where are they going to go?!!! Seriously thats laughable.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:35 AM

            Bill……….it is called process of elimination. One by one , the dollar is getting replace.
            NOTE…..YUAN replaced Yen as the 4th most used currency. And the YEN is in the BASKET OF CURRENCIES……GET UP TO SPEED.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:11 AM

            Dream on…..

            Oct 12, 2015 12:14 AM

            YUAN replaced Yen BECAUSE their economy grew more…That’s it

            Oct 12, 2015 12:25 AM

            Bill……you might want to go and read some history ….when currencies die….not all countries domination late forever.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:26 AM

            You might start with the ROMAN EMPIRE……..

            Oct 12, 2015 12:27 AM

            CHANGE….late to last………….sorry

            Oct 12, 2015 12:46 AM

            Remember the Pound sterling? I was the end…Where is it now..? What do you think everything goes Zimbabwe? Roam took a 100 years to collapse. Your a patient man…The fact is currencies fail when a country fails..What do you think the US is going to collapse…?!
            Crisis’s happen and economically markets get whacked. In time they recover and that’s from the productivity of people and expansion of GDP…Who cares its been going on since the beginning of time…

            Oct 12, 2015 12:08 PM

            BILL…….ROAM took 100 yrs?….if, you mean ROME, more like 400 yrs.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:10 PM

            You might want to consider, since you brought it up……GDP…….THINK if you can, GDP TO DEBT….

            Oct 12, 2015 12:23 PM

            The crisis you refer, might be the inability of the govt.and people within the country.. to pay it’s debt, public and private.

            Oct 12, 2015 12:35 PM

            “OBVIOUS SIGNs the times are changing”…..read the article at zerohedge today.

    Oct 12, 2015 12:18 AM
      Oct 12, 2015 12:30 AM

      BOB H. always a good listen to……

        Oct 12, 2015 12:42 AM

        BILL………..you might want to listen to BOB H.,,,,,CONCERNING REAL ESTATE.

          Oct 12, 2015 12:43 AM

          Bob H….is the second guy I have heard in the last two days……..say…..REAL ESTATE FOR THE BIG HOGS IS GOING DOWN…….

    Oct 12, 2015 12:22 AM
    Oct 12, 2015 12:43 AM

    I agree with Ross Clark’s words on gold and silver:
    http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/10/this-week-in-money-20/

    Oct 12, 2015 12:46 AM

    Ross is an excellet technician. IA missed this buy though. Brain at IA is a long term friend there.
    Because PM stocks crash and didnt seem to go down any further with all the generall equity markets selling off was a good sign. Typically the last few years the pms sold off with any kind of general market sell off.
    My bell weaher goldies are finally getting traction. Trade does still look good. If I wasnt paying attention to Jeff K I would be up alot more!
    In real bull market starts small cap are usually the last to get attention in the market. This time was the opposite. Probably tells us something.

    Oct 12, 2015 12:39 PM

    Bill:

    If your doctor told you to give up half your financial wisdom, which half would you give up? Talking about it or thinking about it? You are most remarkable for your total and complete lack of insight.