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Does the Fed have your back?

Big Al
October 21, 2015

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Here is my opinion, Cory’s opinion, Gary’s opinion and soon Rick’s opinion.

Discussion
167 Comments
    Oct 21, 2015 21:52 AM

    thanks Gary and crew great show!

      Oct 21, 2015 21:55 AM

      Everyone has an opinion.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:56 AM

    right on Cory!!!!!! it is essentially the Banks… with NO audit..

    Oct 21, 2015 21:57 AM

    Allied Nevada shareholders created a new site while they are working on the appeal process. Here are the exact details:

    The website was just created. It is a work in progress and currently we need two things from everyone here to continue with the next step:

    1. Please watch the video on the main page of alliednevadafraud.com , and read the text below the video.

    2. If you agree, then PLEASE go to the page titled “The Real Owners”, read the very first paragraph, and follow those instructions (they are very simple and it will only take you 5 minutes. We will do the rest.).

    Please do not reply to this thread. This thread will be used by us to provide you guys with additional updates as time progresses. If you have anything that could potentially help, go to the “contact” page on the website to get our contact email address and send us an email. Please do not expect a reply right away.

    Many more plans to unfold and we will release them to you as necessary to keep you all posted. This is just the start.

    The evidence page is yet to be filled out, as there is a tremendous amount of information to process.

    Please send those pictures. It’s time for the tables to turn.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:00 AM

      Many thanks Markedtofuture

    Oct 21, 2015 21:00 AM

    Markets are waiting to see if ol’ Mario is gonna print more Euros.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:02 AM

    ****** I KNEW THIS WOULD HAPPEN……….THERE WERE WARNINGS……..BUT RELAX! ******

      Oct 21, 2015 21:08 AM

      Yes, you did warn about this yesterday. My indicators also say relax.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:10 AM

      I AM RELAXED…………..same ole , same ole.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:02 AM

          I have pretty much lost my taste for Mexican food. Nothing against Mexicans by the way! I also am not nuts about German food and we own two classic BMW’s!

            Oct 21, 2015 21:21 AM

            I’ve had a few Mercedes but have only rented BMWs. Both are great in their own way, for sure. Some AMGs are incredibly fast.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:27 AM

          OLE…………..the party is on…………….

            Oct 21, 2015 21:00 PM

            You mean the Fiesta is on……Ole! 🙂

            Oct 21, 2015 21:01 PM

            BTW – I’m so relaxed I may take a siesta…..

            Oct 21, 2015 21:26 PM

            BREAK OUT THE GREY GOOSE……because the swan is landing……..Short a shot, and get ready to rumble…

            Oct 21, 2015 21:34 PM

            Frank – I love ya man. You’re the only Russian I know that drinks French Vodka. 🙂

            Oct 21, 2015 21:53 PM

            That’s my Indiana roots……..married to a French Indian woman……lol

            Oct 21, 2015 21:03 PM

            So not really “Ole”,
            but “Ooh La La”

            Oct 21, 2015 21:54 PM

            Ha Ha!

            Oct 22, 2015 22:09 AM

            good ones , you guys are to funny………..cheers……

    Oct 21, 2015 21:14 AM

    so Al…. what is yr plan for our paying our national debt….. as for your friend… 2008 almost was the end… and it wasn’t fixed….something to ponder…inc the dollars status……hmmmmm….

      Oct 21, 2015 21:03 AM

      If I am in the right mood I will simply write a check.

      It will never be paid, by the way!

        Oct 21, 2015 21:02 PM

        Big Al – If you’re in that kind of mood, just send me that check. I’m in the free market and will spend it wiser than the government.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:15 AM

    Hi there. Haven’t been around here for a long time. Thanks for the interview!!!

    I got some thoughts. I actually thought that the broad indices are just holding up there where there is thin air because of some stocks that have a large weighting.

    I get the impression that the majority of stocks in the different sectors are actually down. The bigger names will follow if things turn really bad. Similar things happened before other crashes/ downturns/ corrections.

    Right or wrong?

    Also there are other developments just unfolding. The credit spreads between junk bonds and the bonds of more reputable nations are widening but to my knowledge haven’t reached crash levels yet.

    Right or wrong? Please correct me if I am wrong.

    Also…if You subscribe to other theories…: There are people who think that the QEs were just invented to print away the US deficit. So to me it is questionable if there really are enough dollars to infinitely prop the markets up.

    Well…that are just some thoughts.

    Greetings!!! Keep it up!!!

    Nic’

      Oct 21, 2015 21:07 AM

      Back to you soon nic.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:16 AM

    I would like to have bought DUST around $11 or $12 but I do not have any powder. I have $3190 in funds clearing soon so I will be looking at DWTI, RUSS, and DUST at that time. However, on the bright side, I am bag holding NUGT at $60.38, RUSL at $19.01 and UWTI at $36.39 (major bag holder in this one!). I see profits in my future on RUSL when Mario prints more Euros and in NUGT when gold continues its climb. UWTI, well I will need a miracle. lol

      Oct 21, 2015 21:09 AM

      Mary,

      I don’t believe that anyone has said that the Fed exercises control similar to a trading desk.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:05 PM

        Jason – did you change your name to Mary? What a rascal 🙂

        You’ll get out of that UWTI trade in late 2016 my friend. No worries.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:18 AM

    Cory, nicely said. Your comments on the Fed are the closest to reality.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:10 AM

      CORY IS YOUNG……….

        Oct 21, 2015 21:12 AM

        no disrespect intended…………

        Oct 21, 2015 21:16 AM

        Regardless, his comments in this section were closer to the real world than those of the others.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:20 AM

          START with the beginning of CENTRAL BANKING, and you would get closer than you think.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:21 AM

            no disrespect intended.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:33 AM

            ? you lost me Frank?

            My original comment was meant to just agree with the lunacy of the PPT/Fed buying the markets as if Yellen has a trading desk (other than the one that trades bonds for keeping FedFunds targeted) that sits around buying spoos and shorting gold all day 😉

            Oct 21, 2015 21:37 PM

            Mary – are you Original JJ per chance?

            Oct 21, 2015 21:54 PM

            GOOD ONE EX………………..

            Oct 21, 2015 21:07 PM

            🙂

    Oct 21, 2015 21:20 AM

    Hi Gary,

    When you say the stocks are going into their “half-cycle low” do you mean a half cycle low of a daily cycle or intermediate cycle?

    Oct 21, 2015 21:22 AM

    The biggest problem for many is the lack of understanding of how all this works. Yes, we all know what the BOJ does, the TELL US they are buying stocks as does the SNB. It is in their charters. That doesn’t mean the Fed is. Yes the Fed works the markets by talking and buying bonds to keep their ZIRP in place. But GS, MS, etc. don’t call over to the Fed and borrow a $1t to buy spoos. People need to do their homework and understand how things work to not get run over by the less informed making ‘big calls’ that are not based on anything but personal opinion with no supporting data whatsoever.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:26 AM

      Agree Mary. Well said.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:12 AM

        Give me an opinion on my reply to Mary, thanks.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:11 AM

      No Mary, but the Fed pretty much controls the money supply and that is exactly what Cory, I, Rick, Gary, Doc and Chris are referring to.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:27 AM

        Exactly, Al, and with that they exert massive control over interest rates -the most important price of all (the price of capital).

          Oct 21, 2015 21:35 AM

          I don’t think anyone here disagrees with that point Matthew. But that is not what my complaint was addressing when I objected to Gary’s many remarks about the Fed suppressing gold, pushing up equity markets or manipulating the dollar.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:15 PM

            I’ve never once said the Fed suppresses gold. I said I think the bullion banks suppresed gold to force it as low as possible before the next phase of the bull market begins. The Fed could care less about gold.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:07 PM

            Sure you have. How many times have you talked about the Monday morning smack-down and how many contracts were sold during thin trading hours thus indicating the Fed was behind market manipulation in metals?

        Oct 21, 2015 21:32 AM

        If that is what you are referring to then I agree Al. But that is not what I have been hearing now or in many interviews in the past and Gary confirmed that with his comments today about printing presses and 100 trillion dollar ginning of money by the Fed to get the job done.

        He also added (again) that there is a secret QE in progress.

        So basically Gary is saying that the Federal Reserve is acting as a Maverick agency on financial markets, doing just as they please to manipulate prices of any asset class at any time and this is all in the interests of saving the economy and keeping us out of recession.

        Would you agree that about right?

    Oct 21, 2015 21:24 AM

    I don’t understand VIXY. It is flat while the VIX is down about 8%. This would be difficult to trade. I was thinking of going into it soon.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:28 AM

      That makes two of us Paul. I don’t trade it because it makes no sense to me and I have not had time to ask anyone why it runs in the opposite direction of the trade we see on our screens. Maybe someone who uses these can explain why the VIX is shooting up but the ETF’s are in decline. There must be a story to it.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:36 AM

        You really need to understand the nuances of these products. Some are based on 1-month futures, others on 3-month futures. IF makrets crash and vol rockets up, but futures traders think the move is going to be quick, they will be selling 3-month vol which can affect the ETFs. All this vol trading (whether its delta or gamma trading) is complex math based stuff and isn’t as plain vanilla as one might think.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:42 AM

          I will stick to trading the oil etf: XOP. I took gains yesterday and bought back much lower today. Holding my big BP position which is up nicely today despite the oil etf down sharply.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:29 AM

          So is it just an issue of delayed response then? That seems to be what I notice. There is not the usual close timing correlation we see with Gold or Oil ETF’s. I was watching TVIX this morning as it declined into the red even as VIX itself was up 6.5% and found that kind of a puzzle. How do you trade this thing?

            Oct 21, 2015 21:36 AM

            Not so much delayed response as it is WHAT is being tracked. When you look at the volatility term structure you can see that vol might be at say 15 today, but 13 a month out and then 21 two months out, then if the makret crashes today and front month vol pops to 30 but traders think that the FOMC next week will calm nerves, maybe next month vol only trades up from 13 to 14…no big move. Depending on what ETF you are looking at, it might be trading off 2-3 month vol and not spot vol.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:54 AM

            Thanks Mary. That’s helpful. I suppose I could just go and read the prospectus to get the details but like I mentioned there has never been time. So instead I just avoid those securities. Like Chris Temple often says…..”If you don’t know what you are doing…then don’t do it!”

            Oct 21, 2015 21:16 PM

            Hi Paul and A Listener,

            Mary had some good points in her response in that different volatility ETFs track different time frames of volatility (shorter term futures contracts or longer term futures contracts), but very few track the real time moves of the VIX. Generally the futures contracts will start to move based on the direction of the VIX if a trend is forming. They eventually will catch up to the VIX and sometimes shoot by it on the other side if there is a sudden reversal.

            For me it is a swing trade that may take several days to 1-3 weeks to form a move, but you can trade them like any other ETF and just hold for a few hours…etc…

            These ETF did finally catch up by the end of the day for what its worth:

            VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX) -NYSEArca
            7.38 Up 0.88(13.54%) 4:00PM EDT
            After Hours : 7.46 Up 0.08 (1.08%) 5:13PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price

            ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) -NYSEArca  Watchlist
            33.50 Up 4.07(13.83%) 4:00PM EDT
            After Hours : 33.94 Up 0.44 (1.31%) 5:14PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price

            ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (VIXY) -NYSEArca  Watchlist
            13.52 Up 0.88(6.96%) 4:00PM EDT
            After Hours : 13.59 Up 0.07 (0.52%) 5:10PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price

            Oct 21, 2015 21:20 PM

            I am also curious if Mary may be OJJ?

            Oct 21, 2015 21:37 PM

            Mary OJJ? No way.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:55 PM

            REMEMBER the dark side has taken over……………….lol

            Oct 21, 2015 21:21 PM

            Many thanks Shad. These are a whole new area for me and until now I have stayed away. But I have to admit I was really intrigued how you caught that large move awhile back so I started looking in from time to time.

            I noticed exactly what you just mention above.

            That is that the ETF’s did indeed follow the VIX trend that was being established in the morning and by the end of the day TVIX was up almost 14%. So there was quite a long slow delay before it kicked in but it was a good short term trade if you had taken it.

            You mentioned you bought it two days ago. Have you sold or maybe you think its going higher? I ask because that chart is telling me the VIX will decline a little more yet.

            Maybe I will take a swing at the thing next week.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:24 PM

            I am still holding the TVIX I bought a few days ago, but did consider trimming back the position into the strength at the end of the day. I agree the VIX could still fall a bit more, but anticipate the general markets running out of steam soon and that volatility will increase accordingly.

            It’s looking like the MACD is about to cross on the VIX chart below and the slow stochastics were bottom-dwelling and are now turning up a bit. We’ll see how the end of this week and next week develops.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09892530011

            Oct 21, 2015 21:30 PM

            Funny FFM.

            Matthew I just noticed that Mary started posted when OJJ stopped, he was against the idea of Fed intervention, and “she” uses spoos as an example and brought up the Bank of Japan (one of his favorite topics). Just sayin……

            Oct 21, 2015 21:41 PM

            ….and then brought up the Yen down below and was concerned about traders getting the wrong information or impression on this site and then threatened to leave….. sound familiar?

            Oct 22, 2015 22:23 AM

            Excelsior, you might be right but Mary’s style seems a little too different to me. She also covers more ground than JJ did.

            Oct 22, 2015 22:44 AM

            Regardless, if Mary really is Mary….then it is good to have another intelligent trader on the site and more female posters on the site. It has been a sausage party on here fore years. Thank goodness we have regular posts from Agatha and Velma.

            Oct 22, 2015 22:57 AM

            +1 sausage is no good! 😮

            Oct 22, 2015 22:13 AM

            Ahhhhh! 🙂

            On a more somber note, I should have trimmed TVIX into the strength yesterday afternoon, but I’m holding it for larger gains in mid-term instead of the short term. I believe post-FOMC meeting next week that the general markets could turn down. However, on the front end of the meeting the markets typically surge up, so the VIX, VIXY, UVXY and TVIX may dip down prior to the meeting and I’ll average down my cost basis if this scenario plays out. Maybe a bit ballsy, but I have large hush-puppies on the platter with my sausage.

            Oct 22, 2015 22:21 AM

            No, no, NOOOOO!!! (Covering ears)

            Oct 22, 2015 22:27 AM

            Sorry….Ha ha! I guess my point was that holding TVIX (2 x VIX) is risky at this point in the game [as evidenced today], but I feel the general markets are in a topping pattern and will head down into November as Doc outlined. I also like the domed topping pattern in the charts in Brian’s post at the bottom of this blog and look at things in a similar way.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:13 AM

          We will ask doc to comment on this.

          Hopefully within about 1/2 hour.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:26 AM

    Al, you are right that it is about the Fed’s ability to shape market though, but too many people interchange Fed, PPT, bullion bank, wall street, printing, ZIRP et. al. as if they are they same thing and they are not. They are all different terms, have different outcomes and meaning, etc. It’s hard to have any kind of intellectual debate when people talking aren’t clear and concise about what they are saying.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:17 AM

      Of course, remember my numerous comments relating to semantics.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:42 AM

      That is a great point Mary. The finger of accusation is being pointed in every direction but nobody has any way of validating their claims and assertions. They just don’t believe the markets should be behaving the way they are because they are SURE we should be hyperinflating and gold should be on a rocket ride to heaven based on all the QE.

      As I have stated here on innumerable occasions, the entire commodity complex has been in decline since 2011. Gold is not special therefore and in fact it has seen the least of the declines relative to others.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:52 AM

        when have I said that gold should be on a rocket ride to heaven?

          Oct 21, 2015 21:11 PM

          Nobody mentioned you in that post Al. I am referring generally to the popular theme that metals are always manipulated downward. Maybe you are the one getting to be sensitive here. Maybe we should discuss this offline.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:23 PM

            Would be happy to. I think I am now h misunderstood. Do you have a phone and what time zone are you in. Perhaps even better how about Skype.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:30 PM

            Agree Al, there is probably just a misunderstanding here about the topic. We seem to be on different wave lengths is all. For me the use of language is important. I have a low tolerance for the way our friend expresses himself some days. If he is an analyst of metals and markets then subscribers would look to him for professional insights. My conflict is that he expresses a very high degree of confidence in making statements that are backed up by little more than personal beliefs and hot air. Anyway, one of these days I will call you. Not today though! Maybe after everyone cools off.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:50 PM

            I would like to chat with you.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:26 AM

    The market is on the verge of a strong rally above 2040. Now is not the time to cash out like some mentioned yesterday. The worst days of the year are behind us and after enduring such a bad year the strong period of November/December is approaching.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:28 AM

    Hoping to get into GDX in the 14 to 15 area.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:37 AM

      Keep your eye on the gap at 14.50, that’s all that matters.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:02 AM

        Time for my reminder that *IF* we’ve seen the low, the gap can stay open for many years. GDX left three huge unfilled gaps behind after the 2008 bottom (all three were much larger than the current 3.5% gap and one was over 8%):
        http://schrts.co/GWBNEi

          Oct 21, 2015 21:04 AM

          True, but this is nothing like the 2008 bottom, so I would expect that gaps to continue to get filled. Time will tell.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:10 AM

            That is a good point so maybe we’ll end up with just one 3.5% gap instead of three ranging from 5%+ to 8%. 😉

    Oct 21, 2015 21:33 AM

    Gary’s comments about printing trillions of dollars is not realistic. There are repercussions to everything, whether it is unintended consequences or planned actions. Go pull up a chart of the Swiss Franc or the Yen. All of these things are interconnected and the Fed can’t print unlimited money without bond market and forex markets revolting. Opinions are like elbows, everyone has two, but they are JUST opinions. Your comments are unsubstantiated opinions yet you speak as if they are truths. Yes, you think these things happen, that’s great, but understand the arguments you make are intellectually bankrupt. in MY humble opinion.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:36 AM

      I could not have said it better Mary. Anything is possible but that don’t make it so. The assertion that the Fed can gin up a 100 trillion to make the market do anything it wants is absurd. I don’t even know how to address these ridiculous claims from Gary Savage anymore without just speaking bluntly.

      What he is saying in effect is that the market can never fall.

      We will see about that soon enough. What will Gary say then?

      That the Fed decided to crash the market on purpose?

        Oct 21, 2015 21:20 AM

        Taken Gary’s comments in the context that we take them lead all of us to believe that he is correct. Trillions of dollars, gentlemen, is simply a figure of speech.

        Disagreement is perfectly acceptable, but let’s not let it get rude and personal.

        Thank you

          Oct 21, 2015 21:47 AM

          I did not think my comment was rude or personal. I am on topic. You said you would address Gary’s remarks about manipulation and conspiracy by the Fed and now i am answering that. I used his name in my comment because this is about his daily remarks. Since he essentially repeated the same thing it is reasonable to say it is absurd since he has no evidence of the claim.

          Anyway, since this is obviously bothering you a lot Al then maybe we can drop it.

          I am really not interested in arguing with you about what your guests say anymore.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:51 AM

            Fair enough, but I too am not arguing. Did I say that you, specifically, were being rude or personal?

            bb
            Oct 21, 2015 21:11 PM

            Unfortunately correct Listener.
            I do appreciate your reasoning.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:27 PM

        Listener,
        “the market can never fall”

        Nope that’s not what I have been saying, and if you would actually listen to the interviews you would know that.

        I have been saying over and over that the Fed can print any amount of money that desire. They can keep the markets propped up. What they can’t do is stop the bubbles from forming. And when the bubbles pop then all that liquidity flows into something else.

        What happened in 2000? Tech bubble. Bubble pops liquidty flows into energy markets and the spike in energy crashes the economy along with collapsing tech bubble we get a mild recession. Money also starts to flow into housing.

        Greenspan prints more money excerbates the rise in real estate until it forms a bubble. Bubble pops. Liquidity flows into the commodity markets which crashes the economy. At this same time the government hands out helicopter money in the form of rebate checks. It only excerbates the spike in energy making the recession worse.

        Now they are doing the same thing again. Why would anyone expect a different result?

        They are going to cause a bubble in the stock market. When it pops the liquidity will again flow into commodities which will again crash the economy.

        The same game plan over and over and over. With the same result over and over and over.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:36 PM

          You also said the Fed is engaging in secret QE!

          Maybe you ought to listen to your own shows for a change instead of talking so much.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:40 AM

    the tman officially authorizes the buying, but authorizes commercial banks and the central bank to act as agents and do the buying.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:21 AM

      Agatha, what do you mean by “tman”!

    Oct 21, 2015 21:25 AM

    A “Saturated World”
    Posted October 21st, 2015 at 10:59 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Bill Holter.

    Dear CIGAs,

    For many years I have written about “debt saturation” being the ultimate problem and the end game to the current system. Back in 2007 I wrote how we were facing a solvency problem rather than a liquidity problem. When the Treasury and Fed treated the 2008 debacle with more liquidity, I was adamant they were treating the wrong disease with the wrong cure. Fast forward to present day, we should soon see what the “disease” actually was, how incurable it now is and how devastating to our way of life it will be.

    The following charts do not in any way say “this is it”, meaning the saturation level is here and now. They do however show you what the problem is and how we have gotten to this point in time.

    clip_image001

    What does tell you the problem is here and now are your own eyes. If you are willing to look, you will see various European nations without the ability to issue more debt while Japan’s debt to GDP ratio has long ago passed the banana republic threshold. Look around the United States and you will see various cities and states where revenue can no longer support even debt service, never mind pay down any principal. If you look at the federal government debt, you will see foreigners are now sellers. The big buyer is the Fed itself. This is THE definition of monetization. There is no other alternative.

    The problem with “debt saturation” is this, all fiat systems (Ponzi schemes) must have new investors in order to “grow”. This is what is meant when you hear the word “reflate”. The reflation process is always funded by new waves of borrowing. For years we would see various economic sectors passing the baton of reflation until there were few left with the ability to borrow more. Then we saw the real estate markets get to a point where more debt could not be added. Finally, various sovereign governments and their central banks picked up the baton in a final reflation. We have particularly seen this since 2008 with the various fiscal spending plans and quantitative easings.

    One other area to mention is oil. Oil price and usage has been very important to the U.S. Federal Reserve Note. Since all oil has been priced and settled in dollars, this was “abnormal” demand but still huge “petro dollar” demand nonetheless! We now have two things happening in the oil market, slightly lower usage because of weak economic activity and MUCH lower prices. This will act to lower demand and velocity for the dollar.

    None of the above should be anything new for readers. If you think past where we are now then you understand Richard Russell’s term “inflate or die” is where we are headed. The ability to reflate is now gone nearly all over the planet! Everything has already been levered, re levered and levered again to the point where no un hypothecated collateral is left …and even with zero percent interest rates debt service is becoming overwhelming. So what is left?

    What comes last as a final solution is a REFLATION of central bank balance sheet values. Ask yourself this, how “rich” or how much wealth would central banks have if they valued their gold at $10,000 per ounce or higher? Or MUCH HIGHER!? The rest of the world can already see the Western financial system is at the end of their ropes. Bretton Woods which started out as a gold standard and morphed into a con game has failed. Should the world go back to gold (at vastly higher prices), central banks and treasuries who do actually hold gold will be able to avoid “bankruptcy”. Some, with enough gold will even be able to reflate!

    I guess the best way to finish this piece is by asking a few questions that drive home the answer. If as central banks have recently said is true, “central banks can no longer save the world”, then who or what will? If the central banks are actually in trouble (they are), who will save the central banks? I submit to you, the central banks really and only have one way out with a caveat. This one way out is to reflate the only thing you have left that has not been inflated, the GOLD! By revaluing gold to levels far above where individuals can buy it, the banks will elevate themselves above their peon citizens grasp. They “fill” the black holes in their balance sheets AND allow themselves a way to continue the game of reflation!

    I did mention there was one caveat. This is all dependent on whether or not the treasury or central bank ACTUALLY HAS GOLD to reflate! This I believe is going to create huge problems in the West as gold has been flowing from West to East. It seems to me, the East is beginning to do as they please and make their own rules in spite of U.S. wishes. Is this because “they have the gold?”

      Oct 21, 2015 21:27 AM

      I would strongly recommend that everyone read this article.

      So there is a method to the madness of China!

    Oct 21, 2015 21:36 AM

    Now the retest us 1135-1140? There is no way gold just stops there in the weeks ahead if we hit $1135.

    I would like to believe there has been a change of character, but I just don’t see it. So far this move looks exactly like the move in Nov. ’14. The stochastics on the weekly chart are very overbought and would most likely continue down until they hit oversold levels as has been the pattern for the last few years.

    As far as the miners not making lower lows yet relative to gold, just give it a few days. They could easily gap down severely in the next few days.

    I’m not saying the bottom is not in, but there is zero evidence yet that it is in or that the latest rally is anything more than a bear market rally.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:54 AM

      The Nov 14 rally was much different in my opinion. That one was full of convinced bulls and did not have the turn in bonds or conventional stocks in the background.
      The current rally is climbing a wall of worry and still has very few believers. Compare the RSI and MACD action of that run to the current one and note the much better Technical Rank (SCTR) action.
      http://schrts.co/TodRHF

    Oct 21, 2015 21:39 AM

    Well I listened in to your show Al and sorry but I am unimpressed. You did not challenge any of Gary’s claims and did not press him to offer evidence to back up what he is saying.

    But you made a big deal about civility. So I guess that was the real focus of the show.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:09 AM

      Sadly AL, I will depart now. This site is just way too religious for me. Either you have to believe in the PPT/Fed nonsensical conspiracy theories or you somehow just don’t get it. One thing I do know is that several of the hedge fund people I know come through sites like this because like Al said, there are 10k people listening to these podcasts and if they actaully trade off the ‘info’ here they are easy pickings – that’s why stops get run and prices get pushed around, it’s too easy to shear these sheep. Best off luck!

        Oct 21, 2015 21:35 AM

        Your first two sentences (not the first one) are simply not correct. How can you dispute a clear fact of the existence of the PPT? Officially defined as the “Working Group on Financial Markets. And, perhaps even more importantly, why would you define the actions of the Fed as being Conspiracy Theory?

        Sorry to see you go. Best to you,

        Al

    Oct 21, 2015 21:44 AM

    alisten… please tell us what evidence you desire… that would offer clarity.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:51 AM

      Facts are preferred to speculation and bare-faced lies.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:36 AM

        What you are referring to as “bare-faced lies” are simply opinions.

        I think that you are being a bit paranoid.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:52 AM

          Did Gary not say that the Fed is pushing markets up? Did he not say they could print 100 trillion to goose markets? He said so with the usual self confidence and certainty that is usually expressed. Maybe the term lie is too strong but I cannot come up with anything better right now.

          I am not going to argue about this anymore. It is a waste of everyone’s time. Gary can say anything he wants and you can keep saying you agree 100%. Matters not anymore.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:17 AM

      ANY kind of proof that is not supposition or theories by Savage, Sinclair, Holter, Ricards, et. al. would be most appreciated.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:54 AM

    OK, anyone who thinks the Fed can’t print enough to control the markets is totally and completely wrong for one very big reason and that’s reason is this…. It doesn’t take trillions. All you need to do is:

    1) Buy futures S&P futures during low volume periods. How many times in recent years have we not seen these fly out of no where and for no reason or news.
    2) Again during low volume action simply beat the heck out of volotility index and let all the computer algos from the HFTs handle the rest.
    3) On days when market could or would normally be going down, go in and goose the heck out of the companies that make up an upsized portion of the down like 3M, McDonald’s, Goldman Sachs, etc. LIKE TODAY!!! All of the previously mentions stocks are up way more than the DOW or S&P for no reason at all… none, nada, zip. If they were down like the average stock today we’d be down triple digits in the DOW with ease.

    In conclusion, taking advantage of low volume periods and strategic product’s, stocks, and strategies, someone could effectively manage the markets. Not total control, but manage them and push them in one way or another, end down-cycles early, create rallies out of nowhere, etc. with tens of billions, not trillions. Utter chump change for the central banks. And friends, they are doing it. ZERO chance they are not. Further I would like to point out that as early as 2011 the “crazy” wall street guys and “tinfoil hat” conspiracy nuts were pointing out with fairly good circumstantial evidence the Ben Bernanke Fed was using Citadel (one of the largest hedge funds no one has heard of) to accomplish this. Well, it’s now 2015 and Ben Bernanke has stepped down from the Fed. Where does he work out there in the private sector these days? That’s right, he works at Citadel.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:05 AM

      Matthew, like today when the spoos just got hit hard for no apparent reason? These are markets, they are huge and liquid. Don’t think that because globex trading in the wee hours can be thin there aren’t a lot of people watching. Something happens in Asia or Europe and spoos can trade violently off in either direction. Again, the more I see people post this stuff and talk like Savage does, the more I know there are too many people who have no idea how these markets work nor have been around them long enough to know that this same kind of action happens all the time.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:13 AM

        Agree again. And none of Dutch’s examples can explain market movements during peak hours when trading is at its highest volumes and all the major funds are busy buying and selling.

        it is improbable that so many agencies, buyers, sellers, banks, hedges and pension funds could be roped into this vast imagination conspiracy without anyone ever coming forward and tipping off the market.

        This all reminds me of talk about aliens and spaceships.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:38 AM

          Aliens and Spaceships?

          Well okay, in your mind anyway!

            Oct 21, 2015 21:54 AM

            It’s incredible that so many people 1.) don’t believe that the shadowy masters conspire on a regular basis, and, 2.) don’t believe that the shadowy masters even exist.

            The world’s sheeple are duped by left-right bs while the puppet masters continue to get what they want.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:18 PM

            If you say so!

            Is this a Dungeons and Dragons thing by any chance?

            GH
            Oct 21, 2015 21:18 PM

            Right. Matthew, don’t you understand that just because 1% of the world’s population controls 50% of the wealth (and most of that belongs to a small fraction of 1%), they do nothing that’s not open and transparent to increase their advantage? To conspire would be unsporting! /sarc off/

            Oct 21, 2015 21:33 PM

            Yeup, 1% is actually HUGE compared to the set that really runs things.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:38 PM

            MATTHEW

            I agree, but it goes much deeper than I think you realize. It does not end at the bogus central banker (Rockefellers). They are puppets like the rest of them – they are simply ACTING as though they run the show – they do not!

            Oct 21, 2015 21:04 PM

            That’s right Bentnail, the CBs are nothing but another tool.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:30 PM

          “tipping off the markets”……….funny, that so many bankers went missing, jumped off building, got shot in the head by nail guns(self inflected 9 times)….on and on the list goes………….jm two cents worth………………………………..ootb

            GH
            Oct 21, 2015 21:53 PM

            Just remember, Claw, it’s all above-board and transparent. If officials say he did himself in with 9 shots by a nail gun, who are we to question?? Wouldn’t want to be one o’ them conspiracy theorists’. ha ha!!

            Repeat after me: the markets are operating just as they should, Bernanke saved the day with QE, we can trust politicians to fix any glitches with wise redistribution policies, and we are living in the best of all possible worlds…………Pangloss out……

            Oct 21, 2015 21:00 PM

            GH……..good one…..appreciate the reply………..I thought I was going mad….lol

        Oct 21, 2015 21:37 AM

        Mary, trust me, I am totally aware of what you’re saying. I’ll go further and say everyone with a brain involved in the markets is watching closely. Also, I am not talking about the wee hours of the night. I’m talking about U.S. market hours. Volume over the years on the exchanges has declined massively (monthly volume down by over 50% in last 8 years or so) and if it weren’t for HFT’s it would be way worse. Personally, it’s brought home to me every time I get sent an additional FINRA assessment. FINRA was supposed to be funded completely by stock trades, but they never imagined the volume could fall like it has. Now through in that low volume and the fact a good chunk of trading happens in first and last hour of the day there’s a lot of room for gentle pushes. Let’s say market opens down, nothing massive and on typical volume. After the first hours, say between 10:30 and 11 you identify I nice “cheap” strategy to “push the market. Maybe hammer volatility index a bit or perhaps goose some of the most shorted stocks. Give a couple hard quick shots and let the HFTs come in for the feeding frenzy. They’re mindless and make up 70%+ of the trades these days. Now if this were actually occuring one would expect to see way more market reversals at 10:30 to eleven in the last 5 years than any other 5 year period in the market of say…. Well Mary, let’s just say forever. Now Mary, just go back and check your daily stock market charts for the last five years and what you’ll find is we have more reversals between 10:30 and 11 by a factor approaching 6 than we have have in any other 5 year period. In fact it’s well beyond the realm of statistical probability of occurring naturally. Now this cannot and does not occur on high volume days which for now are few and far between. Finally, I am not some conspiracy guy that is all upset and angry about this although it saddens me a bit to see capitalism messed with as it’s been. I’m more a if you can’t beat em join em guy.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:43 AM

          Wise words Mathew Dutch!

          Oct 21, 2015 21:40 PM

          MD,
          Exactly. And that’s what I have been doing for over two years. When everyone else was calling for bear markets who was the only one telling you that the Fed has your back and the Nasdaq was going to test the all time highs? Only me.

          Who was the one who also said that the market would not make any significant gains above those all time highs before suffering at the very least an intermediate correction? Again only me.

          Who told everyone that the constant intervention to keep the market propped up after QE3 ended would result in a crash? Just me.

          I’m the only analyst who made every call on stocks exactly right and we have the gains in the stock portfolio to prove it. We are up 11% for the year with the S&P negative for the year.

          Rather than trying to figure out reasons for why the US market is the only free market in the world it might be better to just listen to what I’m saying and you will make a lot more money.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:46 PM

            11% for the year?

            That’s a horrible number. This is October for crying out loud. You would have done just as well in two short weeks buying sugar off its bottom and not bothering with metals at all (if any of you had bothered listening to me).

            Actually, I think Bob Moriarty took the trade. Bet he made out a lot better than 11%.

            bb
            Oct 21, 2015 21:51 PM

            seabridge july/aug was $5 and under, came down a bit today but almost hit $10, that’s about 100% in about 2 months.
            There have been others, needed to watch for dips.
            Balancing risk might play a part I guess.

            I just don’t see 20-50% a year in these markets worth the risk, maybe worth playing the game but not the risk.
            Im looking for 100s of %
            Come on raging bull, baby needs new shoes.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:25 PM

            And Seabridge was just one of many trades bb. If I a not mistaken, Al himself did better than 10% on his active portfolio with that S&P500 short last month. One decent trade in the entire year beat all the averages and he never had to fight the tape the whole way down on gold.

            I would bet that even Matthew can pull off 10% a month during a gold bear.

            Oct 22, 2015 22:59 AM

            We both know that Birdman couldn’t make 10% if he was a waiter. 😉

            Oct 22, 2015 22:05 AM

            If, he was a waiter, he would have to pay the customers ten percent to stay and listen. 🙂

            Oct 22, 2015 22:24 AM

            🙂 At least!

            bb
            Oct 22, 2015 22:18 AM

            persoanally, I am a horrible trader, this has been my first bear and its torn me up.
            I did recognise it well before just about anyone on these blogs, but I didn’t know what it was.
            I remember describing what I thought it was on Ker and no one agreed.
            Live and learn, I do expect to play the bull much better this time, last time I made ooooodles, lol this time I expect more 0.s.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:40 PM

        Mary….I apologize but who in the SAM Hell are you???? You talk like you have every thing figured out….people like u scare the shit out of me…listen to Richard Russel and get a clue…these markets are so goosed it s not funny…it is downright criminal!!!!

          Oct 21, 2015 21:48 PM

          Mary told me that she does not like or site and will not be back. Oh well!

            Oct 21, 2015 21:22 PM

            TROLL MAYBE……………

            Oct 21, 2015 21:22 PM

            Do not worry OWL……….she will have another name ,next time…………jmho

            Oct 21, 2015 21:48 PM

            Come on Frank! Mary made reasonable and intelligent comments that were related to the topic. That is not Troll behavior. What is trollish is when people start ranting about Jesus and end of times when the discussion is about gold technicals.

            bb
            Oct 21, 2015 21:59 PM

            Right again Listener.

            There was talk today about the fed increasing /decreasing money supply.
            A year or so ago I mentioned here about Bill Stills work discussing exactly that, why,how,when etc It was totally rejected here, wonder what changed peoples minds.

            Course at that time I don’t know if Gary was around, I really liked the addition of Gary as he took criminality into account, I argued for Garys position. Funny how things change.

            Pendulum maybe.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:49 PM

            Mary is OJJ. Yen, BOJ, Spoos, intelligent market commentary, very good charting skills and great grasp on technical analysis, but not so friendly bedside manners at times, a genuine concern for other traders not getting duped, but very opinionated and threatens to the leave the site to talk with the informed traders he/she knows.

            I actually think OJJ/Mary is very smart and is an asset to the blog, but just wish they were a bit more friendly to everyone sometimes. Can’t we all just get along and share good trading ideas?

            Oct 22, 2015 22:16 AM

            A BIRD LISTENER…….Got to have tuff skin, if you are going to play in this ball park.

            Oct 22, 2015 22:20 AM

            GOOD POINT………EX………………………………….OOTB

      Oct 21, 2015 21:08 AM

      So you are in effect saying that the Federal Reserve is complicit in a conspiracy to control pricing in US equity markets and your evidence is that Ben Bernanke works for Citadel.

      Good work Sherlock.

      So what about gold and silver? How about the dollar? Do you have something that explains wheat and sugar perhaps? Maybe Ben also controlled beans and one day he will be promoted to President of the United States!

        Oct 21, 2015 21:16 AM

        My favorite part of this goofy idea is that (1) the Fed is clueless we all know that (2) gov’t officials are clueless (we all know that) and yet they have been able to cover up their futures trading since 1990 with never a leak! Genius!!

          Oct 21, 2015 21:25 AM

          Maybe Al can do a segment on the Sasquatch. That would fit right in with the theme! 🙂

        Oct 21, 2015 21:42 AM

        Not quite Listener.

        I and many others are simply saying that, “if the markets were, in fact, controlled by the invisible hand of Adam Smith they would probably be not doing what they are doing.

        As I clearly stated this morning, I give them credit for that. This is not about black helicipters, it is about averting a major loss of confidence that would ultimately result in serious societal chaos.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:58 AM

          This conversation is not about what is good for us or bad for us economically. The whole discussion was about some guests making wild claims that they could not substantiate or prove. That is what gets under my skin.

          Lets stick to the topic you said you were addressing please.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:41 PM

            Listener,
            You can’t prove the Fed doesn’t support the market? They will never be audited. So your opinion is no more fact than mine. It is your opinion.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:01 PM

            Holy Crow Gary, now we are really sinking into the swamp! Is that seriously your best defense? You think maybe you can put me on the hot seat because you are unable to substantiate your wild claims?

            Here’s a story for you:

            Jack the trader calls home one afternoon. His housekeeper answers the phone.
            “Hi Linda, is my wife there?”
            “No Jack, she is busy in the bedroom”
            “Could you get her on the phone for me?”
            “I can’t because she is having sex with the Postman”
            “Are you sure?”
            “Yes, the Postman came to the house. I heard the mail drop in the box”
            “Well that’s what Postmen do, Linda. They deliver mail”
            “I know Jack, but then after your wife went in the bedroom”
            “That doesn’t prove anything!”
            “He probably jumped in the window after the door was closed”
            “Did you see that happen?”
            “No, I was watching Oprah”
            “Well then how do you know they are having sex?”
            “Don’t be silly Jack!….Everyone knows that housewives fools around with Postmen!”
            ———————

            You get the drift here Gary?

            bb
            Oct 21, 2015 21:19 PM

            Listener, totally understand where your comin from.

            Have you ever seen Bill Stills “the money masters”? (u tube)
            Been forever since I watched it but I think I have that right.

            Might be a convincing presentation.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:33 PM

            Pretty funny eh? I am glad you get me bb. I kind of doubt Gary does though.

            The punchline to the conversation above is when Linda asks Jack if he can *prove* that his wife is not sleeping with the Postman (even though she is only speculating based on zero valid information).

            Now maybe if Gary will concentrate on the market instead of wild phantom speculations he too will be able to afford housekeepers one day (like the rest of us) and won’t be earning a measly 11% annual return on his investments.

            Wake up Gary!

      Oct 21, 2015 21:10 AM

      +1
      The central planners know value in being underestimated.

        Oct 21, 2015 21:14 AM

        They must be very clever. Why do we even bother questioning them on policy then?

        Oct 21, 2015 21:15 AM

        To be clear, I’m still not on board for the melt-up scenario in conventional stocks. New QE now would limit the coming decline rather than extend the bull, imo. The announcement will get sold this time since the fundamental winds are now blowing against the market.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:21 AM

          Actually, I agree. I am not in the camp that sees a meltup. The Fed does NOT have our backs in other words and we should expect declines for many months. My focus is on the short side until late spring at a minimum but it looks like it will be a bumpy ride as some of the froth gets blown off the top.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:46 AM

            I personally would not be shorting the conventional markets long term right now.

            Oct 21, 2015 21:19 PM

            Good luck to you then.

          Oct 21, 2015 21:39 PM

          There is a really interesting “Rounding Top” pattern analysis on GoldTAPAradise/Goldtent today.

          I am going to paste all of the commentary quote from “FullGoldCrown”, then the link to the chart.

          “Late last night when I was working on the Dow chart I had one of those epiphany or moments of clarity when all of a sudden everything made sense. They don’t happen very often but when they do they tend to be right. I had this same thing happen to me when I was working on the long term chart for the US dollar several years ago.

          Here is what I came up in regards to the INDU. Sine the low in October of last year the INDU had a very big rally but then traded sideways for most of this year. Normally one would be looking for a consolidation pattern to form if the bull market was intact. As the sideways trading range developed no clear cut pattern ever emerged as a consolidation pattern. Even a topping pattern didn’t show itself such as a H&S top or double top which usually accompanies a top. Last night looking at the price action over the last two years it hit me like a ton of bricks.

          The trading action that has been building since the low last year was in fact a rounding top. And a very nice rounding top at that. That was indeed a reversal pattern to the downside. If you recall we were short going into the initial crash and exited our short position after the second day I believe because the VIX had spiked up to the way overbought buy area.

          Lets focus in on the support and resistance line that defines the rounding top. Note the last drop to the S&R line and one last little spike up to 17,600 or so just before the INDU crashed into the August low. That last little pop and drop confirmed the support and resistance line was in the right location.

          The rounded top met its price objective down at the 15,900 area which was in the same vicinity as last years Octobers low. So now the rounded top’s price objective has been reached we can look for either a reversal pattern or consolidation pattern to form.

          I’ve added a red circle to show you how the INDU is reversing backup after creating an ugly double bottom. Note how the support and resistance line is interacting with the current price action. After breaking above the double bottom hump the Dow rallied up to the S&R line and backed off to find support at the double bottom hump which one would expect, resistance turning into support. From there the Dow then rallied again this time breaking above the S&R line at 17,100. This was a major test. Yesterday the Dow back tested the S&R line and it held support. Again resistance turning into support. Today we’re getting some follow through to the upside help confirming the big support and resistance line is correctly placed. It’s still very possible the S&R line will get back tested again but that would represent a very good buying opportunity IMHO. I will also feel better about this rally if the Dow can trade back above the rounded top trend line which now comes in around the 17,315. The back test area would now come in around the 17,100.

          It’s all making sense right now. We had the big correction that bottomed in October like so many do. I have to say it has been lonely being a bull over the last several weeks or so as just about everyone is looking for a crash. I now have my line in the sand. Above 17,100 is bullish and below is bearish. As you know there are no absolutes when it comes to the markets so until 17,100 is broken to the downside I have to remain a bull. The moment of truth has arrived for both the bulls and bears alike.”

          http://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/dow1.png

            Oct 21, 2015 21:45 PM

            If the dome pattern validates a drop in the INDU (17,100 fails), then we could see some interesting symmetry (mirror image) continue with a very quick test of 16,250

            Oct 21, 2015 21:46 PM

            Sorry replace “Dome” with “Rounding top”

            Oct 21, 2015 21:28 PM

            Can I replace “Chrome dome” with patterned hair loss up top?

            For anyone worried about this syndrome just shave your head and grow a goatee…

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD-E2B5GfI8

            Oct 22, 2015 22:05 AM

            BTW – All joking aside – Good chart and post Brian.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:37 AM

      Thanks Mathew Dutch.

    bj
    Oct 21, 2015 21:25 PM

    Overall, I agree with Al.

    Gary excellent example using Japan to prove the point regarding the power of central banks worldwide.

    Cory, the too big to fail banks are the cronies of the Fed, and the Fed is populated with governors that came from these very same banks, especially Goldman Sachs. They hit the markets when necessary, at critical points, to save stocks and bonds and kill precious metals.

    Cory, Interesting hearing your call for a pullback in gold. I think Doc nailed it a few days back.

      Oct 21, 2015 21:49 PM

      I appreciate your comment, bj!

    Oct 21, 2015 21:30 PM

    Rapid move down to the 50dma in the miners looks like it is in the cards. Would not be shocked at a large gap down tomorrow or the next couple of days. Chart symmetry and all.

    Oct 21, 2015 21:50 PM

    Al et al….thanks for keeping this place civil. One look at boards like Stockhouse and it is obvious that a lot of space is wasted with hatred, bullying and general foolishness. I appreciate the sharing of ideas, and I am extremely grateful that this is a free service. The daily commentaries are thought-provoking, and they challenge my own thinking, although I am not the least bit concerned about not knowing. After all, forecasting is strictly opinion based on personal gut feel and/or analysis.