9 out of the last 10 trading days down… when will gold find its bottom?
Gary Savage kicks off today with his comments on the recent drop in gold compared to the HUI and gold stocks. We then shift focus to the energy sector and address the move up in oil.
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I agree on AEM but…are you a friend of Wayne B?
Gary is looking right as rain.
Gary, earlier you discussed 1133 as a daily bottom but we are well below that now. Like the other day when you were looking 100% correct as gold was pushing through 1180 Doc is now looking 100% correct. What is the absolute threshold that will cause you to change your tune?
Read Stewart Thompson’s missive of today: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_110315.html
This is posted before listening to Gary. Thompson suggests today’s levels could be the bounce point. About $10 less than Gary’s.
I like the action in some of the miners. FCX is up big time. CDE seems to be working hard on a swing up. GG is positive. I think it’s a good accumulation point.
Simply MHO.
I see a bottom coming in at 1117.91 — maybe 1117.89 if the wind blows from the east on Friday. We will then see a dead cat bounce to 1147.23. Now, let’s just sit back and watch if my guesses are as good as anyone else’s. Is that not what all contributors to the site are doing (guessing)?
Low at $1113. today on Kitco so far. Back at $1117.10 now. My last ditch line is at $1117-1118 on a simple daily chart.
1133 was a possible technical level that could trigger the cycle bottom. The employment report is an event trigger. Now that gold has gone through 1133 the odds are that the cycle will bottom on the jobs number.
How gold rallies out of the impending cycle low will determine which one of us is right. I like the fact that a lot of miners are showing relative strength so I’m in the camp that the bears are going to get caught on the wrong side of the market again, just like they were on the Oct. employment report. Remember everyone was saying the same thing then as they are now.
I’m the only one that ever catches these turns because I use different tools than other technicians. My tools are saying the sector is very close to a strong bounce. If gold bounces back above 1191 then you can take it to the bank, the bear is finished. If not then gold is going to try again to get to $1000. Either way though we’re abut to get a tradable bounce in the sector.
Another indicator is silver has relative strength. It will not happen in true bear run.
Holy Crow Gary! You are NOT the only one who catches the turns and the bears have most certainly NOT been caught on the wrong side of this trade. Mark me down as one of those who went short and timed it fairly well. Then go over to Ricks site and do some fun reading…..over there they are aiming to take up to 13,000 dollars per contract on the declines in gold should they continue to Ricks target lows.
If you didn’t notice, it is the bulls who got gored (again).
The turn at the Oct. low. Cycles are only good for spotting bottoms not tops.
Right again Listener. Rick did great again.
If I was a trader that’s the guy I would follow.
But Im more suited to Docs thinking.
We will see about gold, a long way to go yet I figure.
Rick has been amazing. They kicked ass over there this week. I have discovered bit by bit that his hidden pivot system does indeed give remarkably accurate results and use it regularly now for catching peaks and turns and lows. What’s interesting is how well it confirms other technical work without creating conflicts. One of the really big problems I had been having is trying to use more than one method at a time because I was getting too many false positives and mixed messages. For example I chart with Elliot Waves as a backup but they really disagree with more standard charting and it just makes me pull my damned hair out some days.
A listener gold is flirting with the supporting trendline from last july.Imho if it breaks through with strength then gold will head to a double bottom i.e. 1076.Momentum indicators do not bode well for gold atm.They are indicating that a breakthrough of the supporting trendline is imminent.
This drop to 1113 is very damaging for the bulls and I do not think it is over yet. Today is only Tuesday so even if a bounce comes later in the week it probably won’t sustain given the typical Monday action.
So are we really heading for a retest of the lows?
113.10 reached so far!
$1113.10 reached so far! (Maybe 113 later!!!)
IMO we’re in wave 5 of C wave in ending diagonal with GDX targeting 11-10 range or if true capituation takes place which would be ideal at this time as everyone is bullish with hedge funds at highest long position in 3 years then even lower. If commercial can get hedge funds to capitualate and i think they will we may see very scary targets on this washout. I will post underneath this post my previous post but because links need to be approved you may see it later once approved. Links with Elliot wave wave 5 targets.
Notice how nice wave 4 topped at the traget and how this chart has been posted in Sept
I would like to agree with Doc with exception that we are going to new lows guys. We just completed wave 4 of 5 in ending diagonal and 5 wave is larger then 4 but not bigger then 3. 5 is down. We will hit 1050-980 but could be as low as 890.27 which is 62.8% fib from 1923.54 high in 2011. 50% fib is 1087.56 which IMO will be broken. It was already (1072) Next support on fibs is 890 (62%) . HOWEVER since 1050-1000 is SO STRONG SUPPORT we may never break it. Ideally 980 should be hit intraday. I respect Gary and ironically he’s correct in his interpretation on his website here. We got capped at 1200 again and this rally has been short covering or bear rally but definitely not wave 1 in new bull market.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/cotd163.png
All bear markets end with capitualation sell off. We never had long capitulative wash out in metals that Rick Rule is looking for. What we had in July 2014 is simply wave 3 of ending diagonal which are nasty but that never washed out longs in COT.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT and also what Rick Rule has been looking for. That is coming in Novermber or dec at latest. See dates in chart. This also aligns with what Doc just said.
http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GDX-240m-9-11-15.png
It is my belief we are in pink count with green a,b, c waves as subs. C wave will complete at 5 pink. If Gary S is correct then we’re in black count but I don’t agree with it as we never washed out and also black count has been invalidated at 1200 recently as it needed to go way higher then that, 1300-1400. Also i think we may have stock market crash in nov but that’s more speculation then anything. It would be ideal if stock market crashes in Nov and every goes down and dollar rises. Regardign the dollar dollar just broke out of bullish flag. We may go to 110 if Nov stock market crashes. At very least Doc is correct with correction call and Doc will win this bet IMHO.
Please notice Rick Rule 10/24/15 confirms we never had capitualtive sell off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GAuTKiz_gcI
Check out hedge funds highest long position and commercials very high silver short position. This can only lead to massive capitulation i am talking about above. We’re not going near 1200 before commercials aka cartel covers their short position and that would 100 points plus lower then we are at now!!!!
Bix Weir has some great info …….on the silver shorts., I posted it earlier……yesterday.
Thanks for all the charts Mad Max. I will say that at times (even though I see value in Elliot Wave), it does look like a circus on that middle link. So many alternate tracks and paths things can take and which points are the beginning of which major or minor wave count. Gazooks! 🙂
“I’m the only one that ever catches these turns”
Wow! Either a LOT of ego or very isolated to not know what a LOT of other traders are saying/doing? I’m new here as a buddy referred me, but I googled all the speakers on the site and most seem to run 45-50% on their calls, which is basically the same as a coin toss. Granted Savage looks to be more like 45% good on calls and Ackerman closer to 55%. Someone please correct these numbers if they have better numbers. Up 15%, most of the traders I work with are up 40-50% YTD.
Kind of my feelings Terry. Those percentages are day trades with the small dollars that team is using.
Stewart T has been playing the same tune for a long time.
Silverdollar your not a TA guy? CDE has a crap chart. Sorry but certain requirements needed to turn pos….Its FAR from it…
Well…. fidling with gold stocks while Rome burns. Many gold shares broke down in only 2 day’s. 15-20% losses. If you can handle that cool but odds are against you.
Shell dropped a 2 bill prject in Alberta the last week.
You fire insurance is USD and solid consumer buisness to do with demographics.
The USD is in a secular bull market. I dont care what it does short term.
I think we see the loonie bounce here and see .80c but in the years to come it will see .55c.
Ill be using that rally for more exposure to the USA.
Canada is in serious trouble and there will be no resource market to dig it out. The very low loonie will help exports but we dont make jack sh*t here anymore.
In the big bear market in the canuck buck years ago we still had major manufacturing.
We are at the bottom of the heap when it comes to entrepreneurship.We are in solid deflation.
Canada is WAY overrated.
Interesting comments Bill.
Yesterday on cbc they were sayin Canada gdp is 12% manufacturing? Somtin like that.
In other words, a low loon isn’t going to help the majority of people in Canada.
I should have never touched gold-gdx. I am waiting for a dead cat bounce to get out and I promise to never play with gold again unless we get a monster rally and I can just hold. Gold at 1120 where it was showing on the charts as a target and if it does not bounce from here we are in trouble. My major oil holdings are up again today around over 3%. My BP holding is coming close to the 200 day now. Exxon is almost $5 above the 200 day. I held on to my XOP position I bought back at the open yesterday and it is up almost 7%.
I thought by BP you meant blood pressure! If your blood pressure is holding at 200, better speak with Doc!
Gold didn’t even make it to 1200 on this bounce, and is now below 1120, and Gary is still flaunting this supposed bottom call. Hope his subscribers took profits.
I think the most we could expect is around 1150 to 1160 for this year. 1200 is very strong resistance and will take many more months to get there.
Dan,
We did take profits on the FOMC statement last week. We are up 15% so far this year and waiting for a cycle bottom before going long again. Maybe it’s just for a short term bounce, maybe something bigger. But either way I think we will have a very good year in the metals sector even though it’s still down for the year.
Excuse me? DUST is up 20% in one WEEK!
Not trying to be irritating here Gary but do you recall I pointed out that DUST had formed a very nice double bottom and was poised to soar higher? I wrote that warning here at Korelin just days before the action started and Bob UK was asking me if I was seriously using an ETF to gauge gold’s coming bear action.
Well indeed I was and there were also a number of other indicators I pointed to that left little doubt gold and silver were set for declines before 1200 ever got breached. All of that was in response to your saying you had a 99% certainty a new bull market had begun.
And I was right (again) which means my record on predicting gold is still intact.
Did I ask that? I don’t know what I meant then even now if I did.
I apologize Bob. I was going by past memory but it was actually Brian who asked me why I was using DUST to make a decision. Here is the original pair of posts from back on the 16th of October where I was warning that it was time to get short metals.
———————————————————-
On October 16, 2015 A Listener says:
“GDXJ has peaked. GDX is near it”.
“Sorry but gold is going down next week and it will likely go down hard (in my opinion)”.
I have just one chart that all of you had best take a long hard look at before committing any more cash to gold or gold stocks. This one is not my opinion. It’s a chart that is absolutely damning and says Gary is dead wrong in his call for either a gold bottom or a new bull market in metals.
Read it for yourselves and come to your own conclusions. Then duck and cover.
Weekly Chart of DUST (I suspect I know where all the money will be made the next while!)
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=dust
———————————————————————-
Then Brian asked:
———————————————————————
On October 16, 2015 Brian says:
You could be right, but … Are you really charting a 3X fund on a daily chart? Did you account for all of the decay over the past 9 months with DUST?
——————————–
So Gary you are agreeing with doc re gold…?
Not yet. We have to see how the bounce out of the daily cycle low unfolds.
The Korelin Beach.
There are bottoms everywhere.
The employment report might cause a bounce in PMs.
But I think its going to take a heck of a lot more than that to change to a bull from bear.
All demand is still met with available supply. The only reason eagles and leafs have been kinda restricted is the mints didn’t purchase more silver, they underestimated demand. There has been no shortage.
World events havnt affected PM prices forever.
Psychology could take PMs up, but as I posted earlier, bitcoin has been increasing while PMs have been dropping.
This could be indicating the people are choosing their money.
All Im sayin is the jury is still out concerning PM prices.
Good post bb. You got my vote.
Gold has made a new low for the day while the miners and even silver have not —more positive action.
GDX (with Schiff and modified Schiff forks):
http://schrts.co/JnkZIW
I agree that silver is lagging gold’s declines. That has me a little puzzled actually. Another way to look at this is that silver still needs to catch up and if that is the case then the blues are not over for metals yet.
Furthermore, if those outside reversals posted yesterday on the US / European indices mean anything at all then we are going to get some kind of stock market correction and that should take the wind out of the miners once more.
They are in my opinion, only rising in sympathy with the wider market and not rising because of golds performance.
I watch Fresillo. Missed, per usual, the 20% bounce as I hesitated. But I notice that it is not coming back down that much.
The conventionals are what I am more interested in. Just wondering whether we are going to see another sizeable dip down before the Santa rally proper.
I know that Gary is convinced that the Santa Rally proper is underway – and hard not to argue with that at the moment – but personally I would love a nice drop first.
Matt have you checked THE VOLUME in miners in today and last night. It’s pathetic. That’s NOT strength but weakness. Check the volume on top on UGLD when it topped. That’s how you can spot tops and bottoms.
http://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/UGLD.png
I disagree; low volume on a down day is bullish and falling volume in a downtrend is bullish.
I do not expect to see “get me outta here” volume like we saw in July and August.
http://schrts.co/DP9uEs
Could it be the “strength” we are seeing in the miners is just short covering? The shorts are covering into what would otherwise be continued weakness. Once the covering is done, and gold doesn’t bounce meaningfully, miners might be headed lower again?
Thoughts?
I have noticed that retail people become attached to miners once they buy them. They seem to take that bit longer to sell up.
Most Likely OneotPeters.
I posted a long one earlier but don’t know where it ended up?
In short the Dollar is in a secular bull and the Loonie will see .55c ish in the coming years. Gold does very poorly in this environment.
Also the DOW broke its down trend and the TSX looks like crap.
As I said a year ago. Gets some US side investments and if you did and avoided 40% loses in gold stocks….YER LAUGHING
As I argued with someone on this blog was clueless as he said the DOW would CRASH last DEC…It didn’t but gold shares did. The DOW needed a wash out as to many were bullish
DOW was another opp.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47842159937&listNum=1&a=421884453
Yes Peter, short covering is certainly part of it but it’s a mistake to say “just” short covering since the implication is the same —a low is near.
Yes of course it could fall apart if gold surprises on the downside.
Volume seems to be drying up now. Miners are oversold and might be in for a bound “no matter” what gold does. Then again – they might not.
Agreed.
That Dan is not me! LOL… I am the “gold Bull” Dan! 🙂
Oil is just easily going through resistance levels with very little correcting. It just hit $48. XOP now up over 4.3% and BP over 3%.
I agree Bob, I know I get kinda attached, might be once I find good ones Im to lazy to go thru due diligence for others.
Personally I know more good ones now than I have cash to invest.
So whats the point of looking for more? altho, I might look for a good penny story.
Yep, definitely not looking good for gold getting even remotely close to $1190 now. Sure, we will bounce soon, but how high and from what level are the keys questions.
Gold is so far below the 10 week moving average it is hard to see it making new highs this intermediate.cycle. In fact, I think it would be unprecedented.
Now that being said, anything is possible, but at this point the writing is on the wall. Bull markets tend not to retrace this much. Yes, there is such a thing as a wall.of worry, but this action is so far beyond that. The only glimmer of hope is that miners haven’t completely collapsed yet, but that could easily happen in the next few days. 112-115 is my line in the sane for the $Hui. 118 will probably get broken today or by Friday.
Miners and oil are only holding up because general equities are so strong. If they crack, look out below on commodities.
The Canadian dollar is looking good today and just might be building a bullish reverse H&S bottom:
http://schrts.co/7IjKmS
Mathew. Loonie is due for a bounce.
Lets hope so I can unload some more!
Remember, haste makes waste.
I still think the USD could act like gold did in ’12/’13…
http://schrts.co/EN9UnK
This type of technical damage occuring so late and so acutely in the intermediate cycle doesn’t bode well at all. The 3 and 5 day rsi for gold are at levels typically associated with intermediate bottoms, not ordinary daily cycle bottoms. This makes me think that the bounce will be potentially pretty sharp, but that we will make lower lows over the next couple of months.
To me this is setting up just like Feb. ’15. Again, the only glimmer right now is the miners minor outperformance today. Not anything remotely close to being good enough to bank on.
Some of the silver miners are right on the parallel trendlines–the top rail established by the August and October highs, and the bottom rail established by the August low and parallel to the top rail. See HL and SLW. Probably not a bad spot to take a shot at a small long position with an extremely tight stop. If we break below the bottom rail, it will get very ugly after a bounce.
Forget gold! I averaged down on VTMB last week increasing my position from 40,000 shares to 100,000 last week. She ran 1,000% this morning! Woohoo!
The move in bear miners today makes every astute trader sick! That is what I call manipulation.Unbelievable after a drop like that in gold.They should have gapped up today at the open.
I have a daily gold chart that has the autumn uptrend still intact, UNTIL TODAY. The worst price I can get by drawing a trendline on the chart is $1117 and gold is been below that today. The support line that I would have preferred to have held would have been either at $1124 or $1128. So gold today went below the worst last chance support line for its uptrend since July, whether you draw it on a log chart or a linear chart.
Actually as I write it has just made it back to $1117.20 but the low today was $1113.10 according to Kitco.
And yet today was a perfect day to slam the miners. Of course they could gap down tomorrow morning to make up for it, but the action is odd. A lot of the base metal miners like bhp and FCx are up nicely today, so that may be what is lending them support.
Needless to say, gold isn’t acting like a bull market. Today’s selling goes way beyond the wall of worry. More like a tidal wave.
Oil and conventionals soaring though folks.
Dave it is very possible that gold is heading for a double bottom.It is from there were I am expecting a bounce.Today is tuesday and the employment report is due next friday. Maybe gold will keep flirting around the supporting trendline and on friday it breaks down.
Talk about some strange times: At 03:15 DUST was up .01 cents. NUGT was registering up .001 cents. All the while gold was down $19.00. We have a wacky world. Even the algos are confused! Go figure.
Actually, no.
DUST and NUGT are the equities, no the metal. The discrepancy points towards the recent and relative strength of the miners compared to the metals.
Russian and US air forces have staged joint drills to practice air safety measures in the skies over Syria, according to the Russian General Staff, which also reported that its military has begun to coordinate with Syria’s moderate opposition forces.
Thought people might be interested.
Looks like tptb are doin what they can to avoid further conflict in the area.
you really believe that
Yes. If push ever comes to shove we will all discover that Russia is more European than Asian and that Putin is an ally, not the adversary he is currently being portrayed as. People may not yet accept it but they have long since become a vassal state of American military and hegemonic dominance. That story was closed back when the wall fell and little has changed since.
Sorry Gary but gold is accelerating to the downside as my chart forecast, because it’s actually been happening for more than a year. This latest aborted arlly was different because it was weaker, not stronger and just forms part of the pattern already on place:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/bearish-curves-on-gold-chart-from-last.html
Gold could easily fall to the bottom of the channel which would be near $1000 for starters and a strong chance of a breakdown from there could sen it into the 800s because the height of the channel is about $170 here, so 1000-170 = 830, nearly at Rick’s target.
Low 800s are possible withing weeks of now, I think. There will have to be some good upside action to prevent this like a move over $1190 fast. That isn’t going to happen in my view.
AEM is also showing relative strength