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What will it take to turn Rick bullish on gold?

November 4, 2015

Rick Ackerman joins us to chat about his continued outlook on gold. How low can the gold price go and what will it take to turn Rick bullish?

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Discussion
44 Comments
    CFS
    Nov 04, 2015 04:10 AM

    I wish I had not closed out my shorts on gold and silver, but I’m not a good trader.
    It fundamentally concerns me that eventually we are going to have substantial price increases in real things. I fervently believe with all the money printing this must eventually be the case; and thus it will be highly dangerous to be short any real thing in the long term. It also implies I should be short fiat money.
    Thee problem, of course, is the timing.
    I will return to buying and accumulating more 100 oz silver bars fairly soon. Just want them under $1600.

      Nov 04, 2015 04:21 AM

      CFS
      What are you doing trading if your no good at it?
      Personally I dont think a defationary environment is good for any metal.
      I put a couple 100k in Agellan reit paying 9.5% and its appricating on top f that.
      Whats silver paying other then a complete speculation.
      I bought 5-9-12-17 and sold it all @ 49.
      That said theres a couple silver stocks doing ok. But then again they can crash in a heartbeat. I need to retire AGAIN lol
      Unless your a metal head 😉

        Nov 04, 2015 04:59 AM

        Re: “Personally I dont think a defationary environment is good for any metal.”

        Bill, wait until inflation is obvious to you and you’ll pay a lot more for your silver. I prefer to bet against the herd.

          Nov 04, 2015 04:12 AM

          That all depends on interest rates. Inflation alone is not enough.

          Nov 04, 2015 04:32 AM

          What year was this interview recorded, guys? Where’s the rally, Rick?! I don’t see one! Gold is now $1106. Headed for your old target of $817 before Christmas possibly. There is no rally anywhere in sight!

          Deflation is not good for any metal because we are not on a Gold Standard. If we were then gold price would be cnstant and gold will go up against commodities and gold stocks wold be in a bull market like the 1930s.

          However gold can fall a lot against the US dollar and has done already, murdering the gold mining industry. Ratio of gold to commodities does not matter except in a bull market. In a bear market, only the dollar price matters, period. (Well, a small caveat. it might matter the gold price in the currency where any particular miner’s cost centre is located.)

          Deflation is killing gold and gold stocks. Most analysts don’t see their sector clearly because they can’t see the wood for the trees.
          Reply to this comment.

          (Replaces previous comment that I hope you will delete!)

            Nov 04, 2015 04:34 AM

            That is So embarrassing!

            Anyway I stick with the comment on deflation. Gold is going to 820.

        Nov 04, 2015 04:44 AM

        Dave, gold is up very substantially in real terms since last year. Plenty of gold miners are going to do very well and many have already.

        To name two, Claude Resources is up five fold since last June and True Gold Mining will be very profitable even at much lower gold prices.

          Nov 04, 2015 04:23 PM

          Gold is not up “substantially” in real terms since last year. Based on what? Its the dollar that is up substantially since October 2014. Inflation meanwhile is minuscule and Fed Fund rates are near the zero bound. Where do you get this stuff from?

          Nov 04, 2015 04:31 PM

          These are the type of companies we will be discussing bb

          Nov 04, 2015 04:39 PM

          Based on what? Seriously?

          Gold went up about 140% versus oil and 80% versus commodities as represented by GNX. In addition, gold went up versus labor costs in most countries as most currencies plunged versus the gold (and the dollar).

          http://schrts.co/ZF5YC7

            Nov 04, 2015 04:20 PM

            You mean oil crashed. That does not mean twiddly in the world where gold was in absolute decline versus the dollar. Nor did gold move because some currencies like the Ruble dropped like a rock and unless you lived in Russia or any one of the countries whose currency was falling it did not help you. The only metric for you as an American is the dollar because that it the money you convert too and in that case gold did not rise….it fell.

            Nov 04, 2015 04:52 PM

            Re: “You mean oil crashed. That does not mean twiddly etc, etc, etc…”

            I couldn’t disagree more with the entire comment.

          Nov 04, 2015 04:49 PM

          In other words gold is not going down as much as oil and other commodities.

            Nov 04, 2015 04:26 PM

            Well said JMiller. It is just playing with words to say that “gold is up very substantially in real terms since last year” when it was actually another asset that cratered in a smoldering pile of rubble (like crude oil did). Gold in fact fell in dollar terms along with most major commodities and will almost certainly end the year lower than it began. If the dollar does begin a fresh bull-run here as rates rise then gold will be further impaired and is not therefore worth buying or holding. It can only be fairly compared to USD. Nothing else matters in the real world in which we live.

            Nov 04, 2015 04:56 PM

            Re: “Nothing else matters in the real world in which we live.”

            Hilarious. You have it precisely backwards. I look at the real world while you focus on the dollar funhouse of distortion and illusion.

            Nov 04, 2015 04:32 PM

            thank you Matthew- we shall soon see…

          Nov 04, 2015 04:06 PM

          It’s more accurate to say that gold has gone up substantially just not as much as the USD has.

    bb
    Nov 04, 2015 04:21 AM

    looks to me. should we go below 1087-1077. the next stop is about 980.

    Nov 04, 2015 04:30 AM

    We broke the intermediate down trend but then now sitting on the edge after the sell off..
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZJG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89928157468&listNum=1&a=426624018

    Nov 04, 2015 04:36 AM

    Gold prices are in the back seat with central banks vested in the markets. It won’t change until rates decline. Most of the pressure comes from steepening of the yield curve with the PBOC diversifying into bullion.

    Nov 04, 2015 04:47 AM

    Click on the ‘1W’ (weekly) chart and you will see that gold bullion prices saw the Hugh in January as yields declined. I would expect to those same highs once the yield curve flattens after this steepening session:

    http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield

    Nov 04, 2015 04:50 AM

    Looks like silver will hit 15 bucks today….and more if it drops below.

    bb
    Nov 04, 2015 04:03 AM

    Its kinda close, we already hit about 15.10

      Nov 04, 2015 04:09 AM

      Then came 15.05 ….. but its really a slow steady decline. Same as gold. Kind of interesting as price just erodes gently hour by hour. This has got to be killing the bulls slowly because its kind of like water torture when it has a day like this.

      What do you think bb? We get another day of the same tomorrow or will the bleeding stop a penny below support near 15? I am really curious to hear Doc’s prognosis.

        Nov 04, 2015 04:52 AM

        Will the Doc take you to a private room quietly to give you the bad news?

        bb
        Nov 04, 2015 04:58 AM

        Listener, Im terrible at daily prices, I have no idea what tomorrow will do.

        I am thinking the employment report will be good enough for hedge funds to liquidate some long positions, maybe even enough to return to talk of interest rate hikes.

        Predicting the timing of price drops or increases daily? I havnt a hope, lol

          bb
          Nov 04, 2015 04:02 PM

          Just out of interest, around Calgary, its starting to look like cash is king.
          Multi million dollar homes selling at 50% from their highs etc.

            Nov 04, 2015 04:25 PM

            No kidding 50% off highs. That is more than slightly meaningful#

            Nov 04, 2015 04:26 PM

            Holy Crow! Are you serious? That’s quite a discount. So I suppose all my favourite watering holes and restaurants are empty downtown. Is the price crash hitting the suburbs too or just the high end stuff?

            Nov 04, 2015 04:29 PM

            Not a surprise………they have been talking about in some area of the usa there is a glut of HOGS….(to big to sell)

            Nov 04, 2015 04:42 PM

            It’s probably much worse than 50% off the highs when you factor-in the huge drop in the value of the Canadian dollar.

          Nov 04, 2015 04:29 PM

          Y interest has truly shifted to longer term issues. I am going to leave short term issues to the other folks.

          Nov 04, 2015 04:30 PM

          About calling metals prices bb…..nobody ever really knows. Sometimes its just plain old instinct that tells you a trend is overcooked. In the case of my metals shorts I decided today was enough even though some technicals point to further downside. The really big trade was in oil today anyway. Gold has taken a backseat and this decline is just a little stretched now.

            bb
            Nov 04, 2015 04:48 PM

            Yes, the big declines in multimillion dollar homes is real, just saw last night a basketball player? big name but forget his name, his L.A. home 60 million, cant get it, so listed for 15 million.

            The declines don’t seem to have hit medium homes yet, but the sales are slowing, again, last night on an economics show, late 2am? they suggested to stay away from real estate until the drops have finished.

            Also, used vehicles seem to be depreciating, some “good deals” around, might be the start of something, just looks to me cash is becoming more valuable.

            I can see how the decline in gold can be considered “stretched”, it might also be just getting under way.
            800 could be coming and at that price 400 comes into play.

            We could also shoot up I suppose, but it would have to be psychological imo.
            No world events have affected the price in forever, and all physical demand has been met. no shortages, IF, a shortage is going to happen, it will begin around 2020.

            Actually, someone should figure out if demand can be met with profitable mines as they stand today, if it can, PM prices arnt going anywhere.

            So, what will happen of course, is technology will find a replacement for PMs in 2019. lol

            Nov 04, 2015 04:08 PM

            Interesting that you mention used autos. Falling prices there typically precede declines in house prices so its a leading indicator if you are wondering what the future holds for homes.

            That makes sense really. When budgets get stressed then people will sell off second vehicles, motor-homes, ski-doos and other easily disposed of assets. What comes next is rural property, the second home and condos. Eventually the family home itself goes up for sale and too many on the market (for too long) hurt values.

            If you are seeing a lot of lakeside cabins and RV’s with “For Sale” signs on them then its just a matter of time before the suburban house is falling in value. Boom-bust…boom-bust. The Calgary way of life.

            At least everyone there knows the routine.

    Nov 04, 2015 04:28 AM

    For the record, when gold was $60 higher:

    On October 26, 2015 at 9:48 am,
    Matthew says:

    There are clearly sell signals on the daily chart but gold would have to fall a long way to completely destroy the bullish weekly chart.
    GLD daily:
    http://schrts.co/8l9XRi

    On October 26, 2015 at 11:52 am,
    Rick Ackerman says:

    By my runes, it is only Gold’s daily chart and the intradays that are bullish.

    (Also for the record, this does not in the least diminish what Rick does. I know it; he knows it.)

    Nov 04, 2015 04:15 AM

    Once again, everything is down except for the TSX Venture exchange.
    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/

      Nov 04, 2015 04:39 PM

      Doesn’t that speak volumes Matthew?

    Nov 04, 2015 04:03 PM

    Last I checked the dollar was up 400 points since mid October while gold is down 85 bucks in the same time period. So you were better off buying dollars and selling gold. That is a fact man, not a fun house game.

    Don’t be bitter just because you don’t get how it works. You just need more time to learn.

      Nov 04, 2015 04:05 PM

      Seems that the posts are going out of place again. Somebody must have written a remark that has since been deleted. Anyway, the preceding comment is in response to the last post on this thread.

      Nov 04, 2015 04:18 PM

      Re: “Last I checked the dollar was up 400 points since…”

      Lol… and the price of tea in China is what?

        Nov 04, 2015 04:36 PM

        OMG! You can’t even make a feeble argument this time!!!!

        Score a checkmate for A Listener. Hahahahahaha!!!! :0 🙂 :0

    Nov 04, 2015 04:06 PM

    Dumped my gdx as I am tired of beating a dead horse. Much easier ways to make almost sure profits.

    Nov 04, 2015 04:37 PM

    Yes we will Agatha.