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The good jobs number is moving gold and the US dollar

November 6, 2015

Gary Savage kicks off today with his comments on how the US jobs number is moving markets. Gold dropped below $1,100 and the US dollar broke above its recent trading range from May. The question on most people’s minds is does this guarantee a rate hike in December?

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Discussion
137 Comments
    Nov 06, 2015 06:26 AM

    Guess we weren’t the “dumb money” for buying UUP / shorting miners weeks ago.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:28 AM

    WORD!!!!

    Nov 06, 2015 06:28 AM

    Well it is now official. Gary lost the bet to Doc. That was interesting to watch the alternative predicitons. Gary, I appreciate putting yourself out there. We now await the next move up and hope it is “the” move. I am happy about the lows though as this could be the move that results in some serious carnage with the miners that are really struggling. Still the best time to accumulate the low cost miners and high potential explorers.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:26 AM

      Agreed Peter R. The trend-line of lower lows coming out of late July has been violated big time, and the question now is if gold will get down and test the July 24th low zone of ($1071-$1076….depending on which trading platform people use, and if they are talking the close or intraday number I’ve heard a number of different bottoms $1072, $1073, etc…)

      I can’t say that I am surprised as I’ve been in Doc’s camp waiting for a pullback in late October to early November. We are still in the larger falling wedge pattern. Jordan Roy-Byrne and Avi Gilburt also highlighted this expectation for a fall drop in PMs. Accordingly I trimmed and sold most of my Silver & Gold miners into the Sept and October strength and only have a 15% weighting to the sector at present.

      Peter R. – I agree with your statement:

      ” I am happy about the lows though as this could be the move that results in some serious carnage with the miners that are really struggling. Still the best time to accumulate the low cost miners and high potential explorers.” – Peter

      I will say, as several have mentioned all week, that the miners have shows resiliency and have held up better than one would expect with the metals pricing coming off so much. However, if the lows are tested in Gold next week, then we may see that strength fade a bit. If Gold were to actually make new lows or even test and bounce from $1071-$1076, then I’d up my stake intensely in the quality mining stocks.

      This is the time to build your wish list for the miners, and great ready for an early holiday sale….. Good luck to all in their investing!

        Nov 06, 2015 06:51 AM

        I hope Al get some silver miners here and talk about how they can deal with this constant money drain.

          Nov 07, 2015 07:46 PM

          That would be a good topic for sure.

            Nov 07, 2015 07:48 PM

            How to survive in this low price environment is what I was referring to. I really don’t expect it to last much longer than the first quarter of 2016, and really am watching for metals and commodities to put in their lows any time in the next month or so. \

    Nov 06, 2015 06:28 AM

    8……traders control the comex……..according to some reports………

    Nov 06, 2015 06:29 AM

    v.fmg still looking solid.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:31 AM

    Another cut from major. Silver benefits the most from the cuts from majors.

    KAMLOOPS, B.C. – The union representing workers at the Highland Valley Copper mine in south-central British Columbia says low copper prices have led to layoffs.

    Teck Resources Limited (TSX:TCK.A) owns the open-pit mine near the community of Logan Lake.

    Kyle Wolff of the United Steelworkers local 7619 says the company announced Thursday that it is looking to trim six per cent of its workforce at the mine by early 2016.

    He says the it’s a tough market, copper prices are soft and the mine is looking at cutting production of the metal by 30 per cent next year as the company moves into a different phase of mining.

    Wolff says language in the contract means non-union contractors will be targeted by layoffs before unionized staff.

    Company president and CEO Don Lindsay said in an October news release that commodity prices were low, but the company had reduced costs and raised $1-billion in two transactions. (CFJC)
    Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2015/11/06/teck-resources-t-tck-b-announces-layoffs-bc-open-pit-mine#IzH9X702301Qsg02.99

    Nov 06, 2015 06:34 AM

    Cory, FYI there are actually Fed Fund futures that show what the market thinks odds of a rate hike are – right now 76%.

      bb
      Nov 06, 2015 06:19 AM

      Well Terry, that would pretty much makes shorts a good bet.
      Ricks 800 is lookin pretty good to me.
      A rate hike should guarantee it.

        Nov 06, 2015 06:23 AM

        That is if you assume they are placing the odds correctly. Go look at the history to understand how often they are right vs. wrong.

          bb
          Nov 06, 2015 06:02 AM

          That’s true, you really do like rabbit holes don’t you? lol

            Nov 06, 2015 06:16 AM

            WTF does that mean?

            bb
            Nov 06, 2015 06:26 AM

            geez, you need to sharpen your tin foil hat. lol
            Means you look for info.

          Nov 06, 2015 06:54 AM

          Thanks a lot for pointing that out Terry. I can’t be the only one who appreciates it.

        Nov 06, 2015 06:53 AM

        You mean a rate 0f 0.25% will ensure gold go under $800? Rate used ot be a lot higher than that 30 times higher.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:28 AM

      LOL

    Nov 06, 2015 06:35 AM

    My Seabridge short is money in the bank. It was a short no mater what happened with gold price. I love those trades where price is going down no matter what the news.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:40 AM

    cory cmon… the fed raise has NOTHING to do w the economy… they have to save the Banks…

      Nov 06, 2015 06:42 AM

      Well said Agatha……….that means I agree……….

        Nov 06, 2015 06:45 AM

        Problem we have is the lack of understand concerning a CENTRAL BANK……, and protection of the cartel of banker’s brother hood………

    Nov 06, 2015 06:41 AM

    Silver chart still looks fine and Silver continues to be trending upwards with higher lows and highs. No?

    Nov 06, 2015 06:55 AM

    I am amazed over how the experts (meant respectfully) are so infatuated with charts and never realize this time and place in the PM market is a war….a war being waged by the Fed, Banks, etc. against gold and silver. The West is keeping the focus on the likes of contrived numbers (jobs, GPD, interest, etc,) to keep attention away from the devestating and growing debt and the direction of the East. Their war is being waged to destroy gold/silver, while the East is out to destroy the dollar (in time). We stand in the middle, being assuaged by men with charts and ideas that fail to tell the real story, or wage a war againts those telling the ‘big paper lie’.

    ‘simply said’
    wyn

    Nov 06, 2015 06:00 AM

    Anyone with a technical chart could have seen this coming a mile away. Betting against the USD is trading suicide.

    bb
    Nov 06, 2015 06:09 AM

    Looks to me should we go below about 1078 looks like almost a “freefall” to about 980.

    And as they say, things get interesting from there.lol

    Ricks 800 doesn’t sound so “nuts” anymore, eeee gads shock!
    At that point 400 is in play.

    Im stickin with China increases buying about 1000, 800 could be an overshoot.
    The way I see it, that could be the elusive bottom.
    (on the other hand, maybe he Hudas gold exists and the yanks have been giggling as they have been selling all along)

    Long or short look risky now.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:28 AM

      No need to panic just yet. The USD daily cycle should put in a top any day now, even as early as Monday and that will arrest the decline in gold. The intermediate cycle bottom is still a ways out and that will give us time to prepare for the biannual cycle bottom in late Nov/early Dec. Doc did an excellent job to warn of this bear market rally since nothing in this past rally indicated that it was anything special. Until we break through the 400d moving average (with the miners leading) nobody should believe any BULL MARKET nonsense. Technicals lead the way!

        bb
        Nov 06, 2015 06:15 AM

        No panic Jack, for me, Ive been thinking 1000 was in play all the way from 1900.
        Well, not sure but maybe, Im not sure of anything really.

        But 1000 is where the Chinese government suggested to their people to buy gold, they will do what they can for their people not to lose money, if they do the government loses “face”, so, they will support the price somewhere around there.

        800 could be an overshoot (people throwing in towel), even if we get there.
        That shouldn’t last long, the bottom, dealers sell at that price?

        If Im nuts, and gold just continues to drop, which is possible, 400 comes into play and it could stay there for years.

        I don’t know a darn thing, but Im gambling 1000-800 is THE bottom. if we even get there.

        And, Docs time frame suits that scenario. sorta.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:13 AM

    Ow ! Owww ! OWWWWWW !

      Nov 06, 2015 06:17 AM

      that is what ……..BIG OWL , says when he stutters …………….

        Nov 06, 2015 06:30 PM

        FFM or when he lands on a hot branch…nothing like a hot branch to get a hooter howling…

    Nov 06, 2015 06:16 AM

    The thing I don’t understand is that when the FED raises the rate, isn’t that ultimately bad since the US debt is so large. Maybe my memory is bad, but I thought if rates reached a level that is 1% above where we are today, that the cost of servicing the debt (interest) would be so high that the ‘budget’ wouldn’t have room to pay for basic entitlements, let alone defence $$$.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:18 AM

      YOU got it…….they don’t

        bb
        Nov 06, 2015 06:26 AM

        There are things they could do. Remember, they are all powerful.
        How about negotiate a deal with creditors existing deabt gets paid as it it now, future debt gets the increase?

        Everyone else gets the increase immediately?
        They have options.

        Nuts? so was 800 gold, good reports etc

        We don’t know what the heck theyre gonna do.
        Bill Still might. lol

      Nov 06, 2015 06:21 AM

      That is part of the deflation argument. The debt is so large that before rates can increase, a large portion of it must be worked off.

        bb
        Nov 06, 2015 06:30 AM

        Yup, I understand Richard, just sayin there could be tricks we don’t know about.
        Maybe just a little creative thinking fixes everything. lol
        Necessity is the mother of invention and all.

          Nov 06, 2015 06:28 AM

          Agree bb
          See below, I saw this post after I commented below.
          It makes me tired even thinking about all of the different outcomes, tricks, etc. and especially the things we do not know about behind the scenes.
          And from a recent comment from the IMF, that the US should be using more creative thinking in policy.

        Nov 06, 2015 06:58 AM

        So what prevent government from printing more money if deflation will be the result of debt. So more printing, more debt and more deflation. The extra purchasing power comes from money printing. Does this make us want to work? Why do we wok?

          Nov 06, 2015 06:05 PM

          Extend and Pretend!
          The government will do whatever it takes to maintain the status quo. They will only act in a crisis and then it is too late. They will not take preventative measures because they will step on too many toes (lobbyists). They are simply attempting to continue to support asset prices at the cost of the taxpayer and the currency. Unfortunately, everybody is doing this because this is a global problem.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:21 AM

    Al,

    I respectfully disagree that a 25bps rate rise would be meaningless.

    It would be HUGE.

    It’s NOT the 25bps that matters. It’s the change in investor sentiment that the Fed will have changed direction in rates (no matter WHAT they say about future rises)

    This would fundamentally alter the value calculations used to discount future cash flows from investments and probably, though not immediately, cause a very large drop in stock prices and related assets on bank balance sheets.

    It would send major tremors through derivatives markets (e.g. commodities) and eventually cause such a systemic issue that they would have to reverse.

    I support raising rates. They should be much higher for a healthy economy.

    The issue is that there has been such distortion to the system due to fractional reserve lending, money printing and unrestrained (and often off-balance sheet) derivatives creation that the system cannot hold up to a sentiment change in the direction of interest rates.

    And, due to Keynesians running the show for now, will require a massive reversal, then the bubble Gary talks about and then, hopefully the cleansing we need to get back to sanity.

    In this environment there is no such thing as a small rate increase IMO.

    It will be the last straw, although it may take a few weeks or months for that to become apparent.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:30 AM

      Agreed. It really is about forward expectations.

      Commodities about to get crushed even further. What will be interesting to.see is how HYG holds up.

      The Fed obviously looks to be in total control. Everything is awesome.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:33 AM

      I also agree with JayT.

      bb
      Nov 06, 2015 06:57 AM

      I agree with Jay, but why do they have to raise 25, why couldn’t they raise even less than that?

      Nov 06, 2015 06:22 AM

      A good portion of emerging market debt is in USD. A rise in the USD will make this more difficult to service.

        bb
        Nov 06, 2015 06:34 AM

        It would, so why couldn’t they suspend the increase to those that couldn’t afford it?
        Maybe the purpose of the increase is to cause bankruptcies.
        Its not like bankruptcies were not the goal in the past.

          Nov 06, 2015 06:25 AM

          It is hard to say which factors dominate the process. I personally believe the FED is attempting to make the market immune to rate hikes. Most investors and retirees are parked in fixed income and a rate increase will wreak havoc on their portfolios, especially if they are not setup correctly. Then there are exports with dollar strength, etc. As you can see today, the staples are taking it on the chin with the higher dollar.
          At the prior meeting, Yellen proposed TWO rate hikes before the end of the year and then the Chinese situation occurred and she put the kabosh on rate hikes immediately, even though I really don’t see how the Chinese economy effects the US, except for Chinese treasury holdings. Was she afraid commodity prices would fall even more? It makes me tired just thinking about it.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:22 AM

    So when they raise it just 0.25%, all of a sudden people will be happy and the various bubbles will continue for another year or more ?

    Nov 06, 2015 06:26 AM

    Gary, what happened to buying into a gap down in the miners this morning??? Just being sarcastic of course.

    Miners look to be headed to their lower Bollinger band (20,2) on the weekly chart, and then on lower from there. Next week we could certainly see a bounce but I don’t expect some miracle rally back to the 20 week moving average.

    The miners have been priced for bankruptcy for years now, and it looks like the smart money knew it all along. I don’t expect the $Hui to get to 0, but it could get darn close over the next year.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:27 AM

    Robust…?
    The Most Surprising Thing About Today’s Jobs Report
    Tyler Durden’s pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/06/2015 10:09 -0500

    BLS

    inShare
    20

    After several months of weak and deteriorating payrolls prints, perhaps the biggest tell today’s job number would surprise massively to the upside came yesterday from Goldman, which as we noted earlier, just yesterday hiked its forecast from 175K to 190K. And while as Brown Brothers said after the reported that it is “difficult to find the cloud in the silver lining” one clear cloud emerges when looking just a little deeper below the surface.

    That cloud emerges when looking at the age breakdown of the October job gains as released by the BLS’ Household Survey. What it shows is that while total jobs soared, that was certainly not the case in the most important for wage growth purposes age group, those aged 25-54.

    As the chart below shows, in October the age group that accounted for virtually all total job gains was workers aged 55 and over. They added some 378K jobs in the past month, representing virtually the entire increase in payrolls. And more troubling: workers aged 25-54 actually declined by 35,000, with males in this age group tumbling by 119,000!

    Little wonder then why there is no wage growth as employers continue hiring mostly those toward the twilight of their careers: the workers who have little leverage to demand wage hikes now and in the future, something employers are well aware of.

    The next chart shows the break down the cumulative job gains since December 2007 and while workers aged 55 and older have gained over 7.5 million jobs in the past 8 years, workers aged 55 and under, have lost a cumulative total of 4.6 million jobs.

    The same chart as above showing the full breakdown by age group – once again the 25-54 age group sticks out.

    But young workers’ loss is old workers’ gain, as the following chart of total jobs held by those aged 55 and over shows. As of October, there was a record 33.8 million workers in the oldest age group tracked by the BLS – the same workers who, as noted above, also have the poorest wage negotiating leverage.

    Finally, the most disappointing data point in today’s report is that while overall labor growth was solid, the participation rate for workers 25-54, was 80.7%, far below is peak of just under 85%, and below the 80.8% at the end of 2014.

    Time for a rate hike?

      Nov 06, 2015 06:35 AM

      The Fed will absolutely lose credibility if they don’t raise rates now. Only thing that could stop it is a very poor December jobs number or an all out stock market or bond rout, which we know is never ever going to happen with every EM currency looking for a home and CBs ready to buy up any and all paper.

      The cycle will turn, but I really have no idea when that might be.

        Nov 06, 2015 06:40 AM

        When did they start having any “credibility”……….

          Nov 06, 2015 06:47 AM

          MAIN STREET……….with 102million unemployed…..2016 Obama pain will hit all companies…..They will have to continue cooking the book/report until the election.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:49 AM

            Traders are out of the loop………better get on the street and do some shoe leather work.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:24 AM

            Frank,

            There are not really 102 million unemployed. You do not count school students, stay-at-home moms with children, retired and disable people as being unemployed. Most of them are not available for full-time work. And they were never included in the unemployment rate in the past. Only about half, if that, are really unemployed workers.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:16 AM

            Better check the numbers from social security………..working age adults.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:55 AM

            Sorry but just because they are working age adults does not mean they are available for full-time work. Half are not. Those people groups (school students, housewives, retired people etc…) have never been considered as being unemployed in the past. Never included in the unemployment rate.

            Are you trying to do what a few others have done. Trying to say that the true unemployment rate is really 30 or 40 percent because all those not in the labor force (which includes little school girls, mothers with several little children and severely handicapped people) should really be included in the unemployment rate?

            Nov 06, 2015 06:05 PM

            THERE are 350million people in the usa……..350mill. minus 102mill is…..248million remaining people…..Who makes up the other 248 million?

            Nov 06, 2015 06:13 PM

            I posted this 102 million the other day……from reading the social security report , at either zerohedge, FSN…….but, you might check it out. Only , thing about the FED reporting and the social security……is SS OFFICE is the thing and is a GOVT. OFFICE, not a made up UNGOVT OFFICE.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:16 PM

            FED=FAKE………….SOCIAL SECURITY = REAL

            Nov 06, 2015 06:19 PM

            btw…….I always enjoy the conversation, appreciate the replies……..

            Nov 06, 2015 06:21 PM

            Frank,

            Do not know what the 248 million has to do with the 102 million but I would say that the 248 million should include mostly children, the elderly, military personal, inmates and finally employed civilians.

            How about answering my question from my previous post. Are you trying to say that all the people not in the labor force of working age should be included in the unemployment rate which then should be over 30 percent?

            Nov 06, 2015 06:56 PM

            The unemployment rate is not 5%…….and that is for sure……….

            Nov 06, 2015 06:57 PM

            the number does not even include the illegals……..are they counted , not counted…

            Nov 06, 2015 06:13 PM

            THE 30% QUESTION……no, not saying unemployment is 30%

            Nov 06, 2015 06:15 PM

            We do know there are people with multiple jobs…….and the true rate should be higher than stated…….at the bogus FED NUMBER.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:27 PM

            “The unemployment rate is not 5%…….and that is for sure”

            You are correct. It sure is not 5%.

            “THE 30% QUESTION……no, not saying unemployment is 30%”

            I am glad to hear that. David Stockman is one who wrongly believes that the unemployment rate is over 42%.

            http://www.inquisitr.com/2218523/david-stockman-says-unemployment-is-really-42-9-percent/

            Nov 06, 2015 06:30 PM

            Frank,

            I think the ShadowStats 23% unemployment rate is close to being accurate.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:38 PM

            I think you are correct, I thought you did not like John Williams…….or I should say his numbers…..

            Nov 06, 2015 06:40 PM

            GOOD to come to a meeting of the minds…………….

            Nov 06, 2015 06:10 PM

            “I thought you did not like John Williams…….or I should say his numbers…..”

            Honestly I probably did not agree with John Williams numbers at first until I spent time looking into it. My thinking has changed somewhat in the last two years. When I look back at some of my old posts on different web sites I do not agree with some of what I said.

            Nov 07, 2015 07:36 AM

            Appreciate your candid reply…

      Nov 06, 2015 06:30 AM

      Part of the reason why there is no real wage growth is because employers are paying more for health care insurance. That is how it was with my last several employers. If health care insurance cost went up significantly, my employer then would not give raises or only give a small raise compared to the past.

        Nov 06, 2015 06:20 AM

        Obama care hits employers next YEAR.2016…There are going to be more part time employees., that only work 35 hrs or less.
        The number of jobs will be created , part time, having to work multiple jobs,…..thereby counted twice, or three times. Working adults will have multiple jobs.

          Nov 06, 2015 06:22 AM

          The rate is bogus….and the stats wrong.

          Nov 06, 2015 06:09 PM

          80% of the help, especially on weekends at my 3 local Home Depots have men > 60 working there now. Haven’t seen this before! Maybe that is part of the reason HD is doing so well, they cut full time workers since the stores are dead on weekdays and evenings and then hire part-timers for weekend and holiday shifts.

            Nov 06, 2015 06:08 PM

            Could be………….lot of grey headed worker, (with and without hair) at Lowes….seems to be a lot of older women at the cashier desk also.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:37 AM

    Matthew how u doing buddy? hehe

      Nov 06, 2015 06:08 AM

      A lot better than you think. Two of my juniors are up today (1.9% & 4.2%) and the rest are well above their summer lows. Remember that I sold my marginable tocks/ETFs more than two weeks ago. Selling in the nanocaps has been remarkably unremarkable both in price and volume. Be happy Mad. 🙂

        Nov 06, 2015 06:19 AM

        Ok brother. Glad you doing good. I think Sunday night attack will happen so we may wake up to 1050 gold on Monday. With the current COT heavy position it will take a while to clear it off. Pay attention guys to Bullish % index to clear to 0 for entry into bottom.

          Nov 06, 2015 06:37 AM

          I wonder how heavy the COT is at this point. The last report was current on 10/27 and even today’s report won’t include most of this week’s action.

          I do not believe the BPGDM will hit zero again anytime soon.

          http://schrts.co/B0wlwG

            Nov 06, 2015 06:52 AM

            Agreed it may be better but i don’t think commercial are done yet. Trust me sentiment will return to 0. Remember bottom is NOT in and bottom are formed at unreal numbers and sentiment definitely will be at 0 before it bottoms. I may be off with numbers on gold but i am sure as day and night sentiment will return to 0

            Nov 06, 2015 06:59 AM

            When you understand how the Bullish Percent is calculated (simply the number of stocks on P&F buy signals/total number of stocks), you’ll see why a zero reading is less likely now unless gold moves down dramatically from here.

            http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bullish_percent_inde

        Nov 06, 2015 06:03 AM

        +1 Good miners are still poised for a move up. Sure the gold price might grop more, but it still looks like the sellers are completely exhausted.

          Nov 06, 2015 06:29 PM

          Thinking the same thing today as well. Appears to be an exhaustive move; however, new low would be nice, so a little more selling after a little bounce?

    Nov 06, 2015 06:48 AM

    He and Gary are both reevaluating and I look forward to their next forecast. I am not being sarcastic. Looking forward to them.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:49 AM

    WHY WAS MY POST REMOVED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Nov 06, 2015 06:50 AM

    WHY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Nov 06, 2015 06:52 AM

    Mark, did you use any four letter words……

    Nov 06, 2015 06:04 AM

    IT WAS THE SECOND POST FROM THE TOP!

    Nov 06, 2015 06:10 AM

    ********* IT’S A PONZI NATION…….WITH KNOW RULE OF LAW AND IT’S ALL RIGGED! *********
    Gerald Celente:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIUv9l53RA0
    Peter Schiff:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ehupK8XW7Y

    Nov 06, 2015 06:12 AM

    EVERY TIME I POST, THE MESSAGE READS ” Your comment is awaiting moderation ?????

      Nov 06, 2015 06:29 AM

      Don’t put more than one link in your comments or change your name/email and you should avoid “moderation.”

        Nov 06, 2015 06:38 AM

        Gotcha!

    Nov 06, 2015 06:12 AM

    Dow:Gold just made a new 8 year high and looks like it’s very close to rolling on the daily chart.
    http://schrts.co/VgIWiF

    It’s funny to watch the poor paperbugs get so giddy about finally getting back to 2007 valuations. Most believe they’re at all time highs! LOL… 🙂

    Nov 06, 2015 06:15 AM

    We will need to clear bullish sentiment to 0. We are currently at 35. Notice trend line holding.

    http://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/sc4.png

    BTW Gary this % index tracks same as sentiment trader one with good exception that it tracks live and i don’t have to wait til Tue for sentiment trader. I have verified this with your readings few times already so no point of arguing that it doesn’t track. It does!

      Nov 06, 2015 06:16 AM

      It will take a significant drop from here to put this again at 0 and this is where bottom will be at. This also aligns well with completion of wave 5 of C.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:27 AM

      This is just 1 ‘sentiment’ indicator. Price is sentiment, as is volume, MAs, put and call volume, survey data, OI, COT, and on and on and on….its ALL sentiment don’t you think?

        Nov 06, 2015 06:53 AM

        put to call ration is also at 35 currently so it has some way to go
        http://thedailygold.com/precious-metals-video-market-update-13/

          Nov 06, 2015 06:00 AM

          It could, but down this many days in a row says sentiment is pretty low, OI is dropping like a stone, dsi is 7 so there are many indicators saying this is overdone already…waiting for some canned pnf chart number. put call $$ volume is way lopsided

            Nov 06, 2015 06:31 AM

            Yes, one would think based on the bullish rheotoric going on today with the Jobs number, that DEC ’16 oil should be > $51

    Nov 06, 2015 06:16 AM

    IT’S A PONZI NATION WITH NO RULE OF LAW AND IT’S ALL RIGGED!
    Gerald Celente:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIUv9l53RA0

      bb
      Nov 06, 2015 06:38 AM

      I guess people forget stuff and what is old becomes new again.

      When people “wake up” or find out, its a bit of an eye opener, then we get used to it, do nothing, and life goes on. lol

    Nov 06, 2015 06:20 AM

    PETER SCHIFF TELLS IT LIKE IT IS………..THE WHOLE TRUTH!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ehupK8XW7Y

    Nov 06, 2015 06:25 AM

    Nov 06 Shorts Savage Gold After Fed Adam Hamilton 321gold

    Nov 06, 2015 06:27 AM

    At minus 9%, TGM is my biggest loser today BUT it is still up 38% off of its low just 3 weeks ago. Luckily, I trimmed many tens of thousands of shares between .235 and .25 very recently.
    It is still holding above the 50 and 200 day MAs and will probably go mostly sideways for awhile.
    http://schrts.co/ZdU0iI

    bb
    Nov 06, 2015 06:43 AM

    Well, it was a bit of a gamble holding anything going into the employment report.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:46 AM

    Ben Carson Admits His “Inspirational” West Point Scholarship Story Was Entirely Made Up
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/06/2015 – 12:07
    Having surged to the lead (according to some polls) in the GOP presidential nominee race, Ben Carson may have a problem. As Politico reports, Carson’s campaign on Friday admitted that a central point in his inspirational personal story (his application and acceptance into the U.S. Military Academy at West Point) was fabricated. This admission comes as serious questions about other points of fact in Carson’s personal narrative are questioned, including the seminal episode in which he claimed to have attempted to stab a close friend.

      Nov 06, 2015 06:44 AM

      He should fit right in………………being a good liar.

        Nov 06, 2015 06:16 PM

        Yeh, they are all a bunch of crooks.
        Anyhow, FRANK, how about that platinum? What did all of the auto makers buy all of the platinum up already and have huge inventory? Ratio about 1.15 heading to 1.0.
        Started to take in PPLT again here at 91

          Nov 06, 2015 06:11 PM

          Richard , I noticed that on platinum…….looking at a 10 yr chart is interesting.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:22 AM

    I think you guys need to forget about gold now and focus elsewhere – I think conventionals will be where the action is.

    I think Gary will be proved right by his blow-off top in the conventionals. I am just hoping that we will get one more sizeable drop first.

    Nov 06, 2015 06:29 AM

    Agatha:

    Cruz in my view is the brightest bulb of the bunch. I suppose that there is a time for flashy bravado but Trump scares me besides he is mean and nasty and to impulsive to be in charge of the football codes IMHO. Unfortunate in my mind that there isn’t one in the bunch who has served in the military at least in some even limited capacity…………….

      Nov 06, 2015 06:41 PM

      Trump is the only candidate who understands finance, America needs a leader who can bring business sense into government, most of your country is in financial default not only of interest but also principal, it is a house of cards propped up by fiat money printing that can’t go on much longer, but even the people here don’t see the seriousness of The US debt. It reminds me of Great Britain before The Second World War, Chamberlain didn’t understand how to negotiate with Hitler but Churchill was in the wings waiting for his chance to shine. I just hope that America is lucky enough to allow a businessman to save their countries economy, and ultimately the rest of the world.

        Nov 06, 2015 06:02 PM

        The two most important things that made America great were small government and an emphasis on allowing all business’s to flourish without government rules and regulations. DT

    Nov 06, 2015 06:58 PM

    The COT commercials for the past week—silver was a wash but gold shows about a net 13,500 net long contracts which is a positive start. However, we have a ways to go.

    Nov 07, 2015 07:34 AM

    The Bear market in gold is over
    The Bull market in gold will begin here
    The Gold train is leaving the station
    Weak hands won’t buy here at the lows
    They will buy at the highs
    They will be left behind
    All aboard.
    ————————-

    Exactly how many times have we heard you proclaim this type of cr@p Gary?
    Remind me and everyone else again….please
    You have called many final all aboard bottoms in gold.
    I keep telling you that your train is going in the wrong direction.
    Once again it has.
    Your not a train driver Gary. Your just a dude that sits in the Caboose thinking he knows where he’s going & selling those thoughts to hopefuls.
    Your continued track record of calling final bottoms in gold proves that.
    No doubt one day when gold eventually bottoms your website will boast that YOU called it !
    But will you be brave enough on that same site to boast how many times previously you called the bottom in gold all the way down?

    …I doubt it….that doesn’t sell subscriptions to fresh fish aferall does it Gary.
    Cheers.

    Nov 07, 2015 07:24 PM

    Joseph Farrell presents a case for where the off balance sheet gold is coming from – WW2 Japan which starts at the 50:40 sec mark (about 10 min) project lily
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1svGIBKaE_0

      Nov 08, 2015 08:09 AM

      GREAT POST………………BONDS, wonder where the next rip off comes……to the rich.
      mark….1 hr. 5 min…….
      Fitts has been talking about this………

        Nov 08, 2015 08:10 AM

        btw ….Thanks for the post.

        Nov 08, 2015 08:16 AM

        the rip off talk is about 1hr 9 min. for all the super rich, who are going to be flushed, and no one will care, because they will be deserving it…….could be a real joke.

          Nov 08, 2015 08:43 PM

          Frank…I like Fitts too… for the most part.
          the rip off…. what r u talking about…??
          Thanks a lot

            Nov 08, 2015 08:51 PM

            Agatha….., thanks for the reply…..Those that get “ripped off”….will be those ultra rich, (might think of Bernie Madeoff) holding bonds of different types as described in the tape, …might be govt. backed , as he mentioned…”federal reserved”…(notice the word reserved, with an “ed”, ……

            Nov 08, 2015 08:53 PM

            Interesting that he mentioned Obama , in 2009, and his affiliation with financing fraud.

            Nov 08, 2015 08:00 PM

            Fitts has mentioned in her writings….about the financing thur FHA, FANNIE AND FREDDIE , that was used in financing cover ups , “off the book financing of CIA operations”……..ALL part of a bigger scheme, to finance projects the normal person would not recognize or understand, with out research, PART OF THE “BLACK BUDGET”